Probability
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1. Definition and Concept of Chance
Probability is the mathematical measure of the likelihood that a specific event will occur. It quantifies the
concept of "chance" on a strict numerical scale from 0 to 1.
• 0 : An absolutely impossible event.
• 1 : An absolutely certain event.
• 0.5 : An even chance (e.g., flipping a fair coin).
The sum of the probabilities of all possible distinct outcomes in a given scenario always equals exactly 1.
2. Empirical (Experimental) Probability
Empirical probability is based entirely on historical data, observations, or the direct mathematical results of
actual physical experiments.
P(E) = (Number of times event E occurred) / (Total number of trials)
Law of Large Numbers: As the total number of experimental trials increases significantly, the empirical
probability of an event tends to approach its true, theoretical probability. It bridges the gap between real-
world observation and mathematical theory.
3. Theoretical Probability and Sample Space
Sample Space (S)
The complete, exhaustive set of all possible, equally likely outcomes of an experiment. For instance, when
rolling a standard six-sided die, the sample space is defined as S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Theoretical Calculation
Calculated using logical reasoning and ideal mathematical conditions rather than real-world trial outcomes:
P(E) = (Number of Favorable Outcomes) / (Total Possible Outcomes)
4. Complementary Events
c
The complement of an event E (denoted mathematically as E' or E ) represents the exact scenario where
the specified event does not occur.
P(E) + P(E') = 1
Strategic Application: This complementary property is highly useful for efficiently calculating "at least
one" probabilities. Instead of adding up multiple complex probabilities, you can find the probability of the
event never happening and subtract it from 1.
P(At least one) = 1 - P(None)
5. Mutually Exclusive and Independent Events
Mutually Exclusive Events
Events that cannot possibly occur at the exact same time (e.g., drawing a single card that is both a Heart
and a Spade).
• Intersection: P(A ∩ B) = 0
• Addition Rule: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
Independent Events
The occurrence of one event has absolutely no effect on the mathematical probability of the second event
occurring (e.g., rolling two separate dice).
• Multiplication Rule: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)
6. Combined Events
Combined events involve calculating the probability of multiple distinct events happening either
sequentially (one after another) or simultaneously (at the exact same time).
• With Replacement: The sample space remains completely identical for each subsequent event. The
sequential events remain purely independent.
• Without Replacement: The sample space shrinks after each event occurs. The subsequent events
become strictly dependent on the previous outcomes (requiring conditional probability logic).
These scenarios are perfectly mapped and solved using probability tree diagrams.
7. Venn Diagrams and Probability Formulas
Venn diagrams visually represent sample spaces and events as overlapping geometric regions, making
complex combinations highly intuitive.
General Addition Rule
Used to find the total probability of A OR B occurring. If the events overlap (meaning they are not mutually
exclusive), their intersection must be mathematically subtracted once to avoid double-counting.
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
• A ∪ B (Union): The entire combined area covered by both circles.
• A ∩ B (Intersection): The overlapping central region shared by both circles.
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