Probability and Statistics II
MAT231
Lecture 7
One Sample Tests of
Hypotheses
Prof. Emad Ashmawy
Hypothesis and Hypothesis Testing
HYPOTHESIS A statement about the value of a population parameter
developed for the purpose of testing.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING A procedure based on sample evidence and
probability theory to determine whether the hypothesis is a reasonable
statement.
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Important Things to Remember about H0 and H1
H0: null hypothesis and H1: alternate hypothesis.
H0 and H1 are mutually exclusive.
H0 is always presumed to be true.
H1 has the burden of proof.
A random sample (n) is used to “reject H0”.
If we conclude “do not reject H0”, this does not necessarily mean that the null
hypothesis is true, it only suggests that there is not sufficient evidence to reject
H0; rejecting the null hypothesis then suggests that the alternative hypothesis
may be true.
Equality is always part of H0 (e.g. “=” , “≥” , “≤”).
“≠”, “<”, and “>” are always part of H1.
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Decisions and Errors in Hypothesis Testing
Type I Error
Defined as the probability of rejecting the
null hypothesis when it is actually true.
This is denoted by the Greek letter .
Also known as the significance level of a
test.
Type II Error
Defined as the probability of failing to
reject the null hypothesis when it is
actually false.
This is denoted by the Greek letter β.
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One-tailed vs. Two-tailed Test
One-tailed or Left-tailed Test
Two-tailed or Non-directional Test
One-tailed or Right-tailed Test
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How to Set Up a Claim as Hypothesis
✓Look for keywords Inequality
Keywords Part of
and convert them into Symbol
symbols. Larger (or more) than > H1
✓Some keywords Smaller (or less) < H1
include: “improved, No more than H0
better than, as At least ≥ H0
effective as, different Has increased > H1
from, has changed, Is there difference? ≠ H1
etc.” Has not changed = H0
Has “improved,” “is See left H1
better than,” “is more text
effective”
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Hypothesis Setups for Testing a Mean ()
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Testing for a Population Mean with a Known Population
Standard Deviation — Example
Jamestown Steel Company manufactures
and assembles desks and other office
equipment. The weekly production of
the Model A325 desk at the Fredonia
Plant follows the normal probability
distribution with a mean of 200 and a
standard deviation of 16. Recently, new
production methods have been
introduced and new employees hired.
The VP of manufacturing would like to A sample, of size 50, from last year’s weekly
investigate whether there has been a production yielded a mean number of desks
change in the weekly production of the
Model A325 desk. produced of 203.5. Test using 0.01
significance level.
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Finding the z Value for a 0.01 Significance Level for
a Two-Tailed Test
0.005 0.005
0.99
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Testing for a Population Mean with a Known Population
Standard Deviation – Another Example
Suppose in the previous problem the vice
president wants to know whether there has been
an increase in the number of units assembled. To
put it another way, can we conclude, because of
the improved production methods, that the mean
number of desks assembled in the last 50 weeks
was more than 200?
Recall: σ=16, n=50, =200, α=.01
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Testing for a Population Mean with a Known Population
Standard Deviation – Example
Step 1: State the null hypothesis and the alternate hypothesis.
H0: ≤ 200
H1: > 200
(note: keyword in the problem “an increase”)
Step 2: Select the level of significance.
α = 0.01 as stated in the problem.
Step 3: Select the test statistic.
Use z distribution since σ is known.
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One-Tailed Test versus Two-Tailed Test
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Testing for a Population Mean with a Known Population
Standard Deviation – Example
X −
z=
/ n
203.5 − 200
=
16 / 50
z = 1.55
Step 5: Make a decision and interpret the result.
1.55 does not fall in the rejection region. H0 is not rejected. We conclude that the
average number of desks assembled in the last 50 weeks is not more than 200.
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Testing for the Population Mean:
Population Standard Deviation Unknown
When the population standard deviation (σ) is unknown, the sample standard
deviation (s) is used in its place.
The t distribution is used as test statistic, which is computed using the formula:
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THANK YOU
☺
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