DAFFODIL INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, VOLUME 14, ISSUE 1, JULY 2019

DYNAMICS AND STABILITY ANALYSIS OF PARTY

SWITCHING IN POLITICS OF NIGERIA: A
MATHEMATICAL APPROACH
*
A. A. Ayoade1, Philip Iyiola Farayola2, and Taofeek Oyesola Lamidi3
1
Department of Mathematics, University of Medical Sciences, Ondo, Nigeria.
2
Department of Mathematics, Emmanuel Alayande College of Education, Oyo, Nigeria.
3
Department of General Education Studies, Federal College of Education (Sp), Oyo, Nigeria.

E-mail: ayoadeabbayomi@[Link]

Abstract: Democratic consolidations in Nigeria have election in order to dominate and organise the
been hampered by the incessant decamping of political structure of national leadership.
office holders and gladiators. In an attempt to provide a Herbert [3] describes the political party as a social
theoretical basis to study the dynamics of party group characterised by a system of symbiotic
switching in Nigeria, we formulate a new deterministic activities and a high degree of the logical direction of
compartmental model. We prove the positivity of
behaviour towards the actualisation of common
solutions of the model, conduct the stability analysis via
the principle of stability of nonlinear differential expectation and acknowledgement. Herbert’s
equations and carry out simulations to verify the definition revealed that the party exists to protect
theoretical results. Findings from the simulation show national interest based on specific principles
that political office holders lose their places in the (ideology) and not personal or sectional interest.
hearts of the electorates when they fail to deliver Clearly, the meaning of a political party makes it
electoral promises which prompts party defection. quite unique from other social groups like Labour
Unions because of their rare features. One of the
features is ideology. An ideology is a set of principles
Keywords: defection; democracy; political party; or philosophy that determines a political programme.
electorates; model.
The ideology of a political party is written and
contained in what is termed manifesto (or action plan
1. INTRODUCTION
or blueprint). The manifesto is made up of the
Democracy is a system of government which is principle and goals the party pledges to pursue if
defined as a government of the people by the people elected into power. As an agreement with the voters,
and for the people. The formation of a democratic the manifesto outlines the party’s perception of the
government is a function of the emergence of nation’s challenges and spells out how the party plans
political parties. The Political party is a polysemous to address the challenges and helps realise the mutual
word. However, the point of convergence of the aspirations of the country if voted into power.
different definitions given by the scholars is based on Another basic feature of political parties is the
the fact that political parties are the major institutions membership base. Political parties recruit individuals
for organising a democratic government. Max Weber who are committed to their principles and ideology
as cited in [1] describes the political party as and who are ready to participate in policy
contending groups which struggle for political power formulation, party governance, and campaigning. The
within corporate bodies. The definition puts policies and ideology of a political party are often
candidates and politicians for the recruitment of shaped by the members of the party [4].
leadership into both appointive and elective positions
as principal gladiators and the aim of party formation Multiparty democracies are anchored on multiple-
is to seize governmental powers. Also, Likoti [2] parties, where one party acts as the ruling party and
argues that a political party is a group of people that other parties as alternatives or oppositions. Sadly,
is well organised with common political opinions and less developed countries like Nigeria are
objectives that attempt to influence public policies by characterised by persistence and major problem:
getting its candidates elected to public offices. The frequent party switching among elected political
context and theme of the definition of the political gladiators which tends to impede democratic
party as given by [2] suggest that the main objective consolidation. Party switching, otherwise known as
of a political party is to participate and win an cross-carpeting, floor-crossing, party-hopping, party
defection, decamping, canoe-jumping or party

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 DAFFODIL INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, VOLUME 14, ISSUE 1, JULY 2019

jumping, according to [5], [6] and [7] occurs when president of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari started
politicians move from one political party to another from All Nigerians Peoples Party (ANPP) in 2003
as a result of countless of reasons such as power before defected to Congress for Political Change
tussles, personality clash, disagreement over an issue, (CPC) in 2009 and finally moved to All Progressive
division or crisis within the party, actualisation of Congress (APC) in 2013 to win 2015 presidential
personal political ambition, and conflicting views on election. Also, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, in an attempt
the working and operations of the ideology or to become the president of Nigeria, defected from
philosophy of the political party [8]. The first party People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in 2006 to Action
defection occurred in Nigeria in 1951 and was Congress (AC) then defected back to People’s
motivated by religion preferences and ethnic Democratic Party (PDP) in 2009 then defected again
affiliation. It was a calculated attempt to prevent Dr to All Progressive Congress (APC) in 2013 and also
Nnamdi Azikiwe, an Igbo man, from emerging the defected back to People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in
premier of Western Region. To frustrate Azikiwe’s 2017 to contest for president in 2019 general election.
dream, the Yoruba members in the National Council In the same manner, the senate president of the 8th
for Nigerian and Cameroon (NCNC) were lobbied to National Assembly, Senator (Dr.) Abubakar Bukola
defect to the Action Group (AG) [9]. Saraki was the governor of Kwara State for eight
years under the umbrella of PDP. He also won
It is necessary to understand that party switching is election into the senate in 2011 under the banner of
not unlawful, but it is illegal when such defection is PDP as well but switched to APC when he could not
not as a result of any concrete sign of internal crisis pick the presidential ticket of PDP for 2015 general
or divisions or lack of ideological commitments. election. He contested 2015 general election with the
Party switching is a global phenomenon which has ticket of APC and won to become the senate
been reported in developed countries like the US, president. Now that the pendulum could not swing
Great Britain, Italy and other countries like Poland, his way for the APC presidential ticket, he defected
India, Philippines and Ukraine [10]. However, the back to PDP to re-contest in 2019 general election.
rationale behind party defection in Nigeria is
different from the rationale behind it in many Party switching has made politics a dirty game in
countries of the world where party switching is Nigeria with some assassinations recorded after
hinged on politicians rejecting to aid their political defection. A good example is the murder of PDP
parties in coalition government [11]. In Nigeria, South-South leader after he defected from PDP to
defection is not based on the formation of new parties ANPP and the gruesome murder of Akwa Ibom State
nor coalition government or ideological differences former Deputy Speaker of House of Assembly after
but on self-interest, concern for financial gains and he switched to APC from PDP to contest for the State
the strategy to remain relevant after the general House of Assembly in the 2015 general election. It
election. Party switching is motivated by the need for has also made a mockery of Nigeria democracy. One
political relevance, political opportunities, political of the ways by which party- switching has adversely
survival and a strategy to avoid being kept in the ridiculed Nigeria’s democracy is that it has labelled
political coolers [12]. One of the bases for party Nigerian politicians political prostitutes. Odum [16]
switching in Nigeria is an attempt to win the general declares that prostitutes and politicians are two
election. Defection has conceived a weapon parallel professionals. While the former is borne out
necessary to stand a chance of either picking a party of social decadence, the latter is rooted in the
ticket or retaining a political office in on-coming constitution. The converging point or common
general election [13]. Udo [14] argues that Nigerian denominator for the two seems to be their allegiance
politicians move from one party to another just to which is based on no preference. So, while the
cater to their selfish interest. Udo asked for the politicians change political parties, the prostitutes
explanation of what made a politician switched from change beds. Party defection has resulted in grave
one political party to another and then defected back enmity among political gladiators and political
to the original political party within short period of parties to the degree that unconstructive criticism,
time under conditions that applauded disregard for unhealthy rivalry and hate speeches have become the
ideologies and principles as in the case of Alhaji order of the day in the Nigeria political landscape
Atiku Abubakar former vice president of the federal [17]. Party-switching has also resulted in over
republic of Nigeria who is regarded as the most politicisation of insurgency in the North East where
defected politician in recent times [15]. Boko Haram insurgents have claimed more than 20
000 lives [9]. Politicians are shifting blames instead
Nigerian politicians jump from party to party to of joining hands to defeat the insurgency. It is also
actualise their ambitions. For example, the current interesting to stress that party switching has made the

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 DAFFODIL INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, VOLUME 14, ISSUE 1, JULY 2019

electorate lost hope and confidence in their expectation and extremism. While mathematical
representatives. Besides, the way and manner by studies of real-life phenomena are exhaustive, we are
which politicians defect from party to party without a not aware of the one that is directed to the dynamics
sense of national interest have made them objects of of party switching in politics with reference to the
ridicule, shame and laughter to the degree that some situation in Nigeria.
of them are stoned publicly by the electorate.
2. MODEL FORMULATION
A good number of researches have been conducted
on party switching scenario in Nigeria. For example, Nigeria practices multiparty system but two political
[1] examined the cases and causes of party switching parties do dominate the political terrain as in the case
in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic and discovered that of the present Fourth Republic where People’s
party switching was patterned by the ethnic/religion Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressive
inclination, self-interest of the politicians and intra- Congress (APC) have dominated political landscape.
party feud. The researchers also discovered that party The PDP dominance of the political sphere since the
switching in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic was also inception of Fourth Republic in 1999 came to an end
anchored on poor ideology and gross indiscipline in 2013 when the political calculation gave birth to
among political parties. They, therefore, concluded APC from the merging of four major political parties
that the menace of frequent party-switching among – All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), All
political office holders in Nigeria could be well Nigerians Peoples Party (ANPP), Action Congress of
checked if party discipline and ideology were strictly Nigeria (ACN) and Congress for Progress Change
adhering to. [7] also x-rays the consequence of Local (CPC). One election period is considered. In
Government elections conducted in Kogi State in accordance with the constitution, a candidate is
May 4, 2013. The researcher explains the rationale elected to serve a term of four years after which he is
behind party- switching before and after the election eligible to re-contest for another four years if he was
and why the politicians play “politics” with such a president or governor. Other political office holders
party-switching. Aleyomi, therefore, concluded that can re-contest for as many times as possible. It is on
fair representation, accountability, good governance, this ground that we considered two political parties
democratic consolidation and purpose of democracy A(t) and B(t). We also considered the compartments
will be defeated if politics of party switching should for the politicians, the political offices and the
continue. electorate denoted by C(t), D(t) and E(t) respectively.
 and  are the rates at which politicians move to
Also, [17] conduct a study and explain the rationale
and politics of defection of many law makers at the parties A(t) and B(t) respectively.  and  are the
House of Representatives in 2014. They also explain rates at which the electorate votes for candidates in
the implication of the defection on democratic parties A(t) and B(t) respectively with  >  .
consolidation. The researchers argue that unruly
 and  are the rates at which parties A(t) and B(t)
defection of the law makers is prompted by the
weakness of Section 68(1) (g) of the 1999 won political offices respectively with  >  . and
constitution. Studies on party switching in Nigeria are the rates at which political office holders from
can also be found in [15] and [19]. Of all the existing parties A(t) and B(t) deliver electoral promises to the
works on party switching, the use of mathematics to electorate respectively. After four years, political
conduct the study is rare. The existing works lack office holders in party A(t) wished to re-contest the
mathematical analysis and it is against this backdrop election but they failed to deliver electoral promises
that the present study is aimed at using mathematical and disappointed the electorate while in office. As a
modelling to analyse the dynamics of party switching result, the electorates are not willing to vote for them
in the Nigeria political terrain. Mathematical again. Besides, their political party, party A(t) is not
modelling is defined in [20] as “the process of willing to field them at an election for fear of losing
evaluating a mathematical representation of some the election. They, therefore, defect to party B(t) to
phenomena in order to gain a better understanding of realise their ambition since the electorates are fed up
those phenomena”. Mathematical models had been of party A(t) and ready to vote any candidates from
used both numerically and analytically to give party B(t). This mentality gave All Progressive
understanding into the processes of a good number of Congress (APC) edge during the 2015 general
real-life phenomena e.g. media impact on a new election. Most politicians who won the 2011 general
product innovation diffusion [21], rumour [22], election with the tickets of People’s Democratic Party
construction activities [23], poverty and crime [24], (PDP) defected to APC to contest 2015 general
blood flow and blood pressure [25], inequality,

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 DAFFODIL INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, VOLUME 14, ISSUE 1, JULY 2019

election and won. It was due to the fact that the dE

  2  E   E  A   B (5)
electorates were fed up of PDP administration and dt
determined to vote it out in 2015. The electorates
were brainwashed with the promise of “change” by The numerical values assigned to the parameters to
the APC and were mad at voting for the candidates of conduct the simulations are presented in Table I.
APC in 2015 general election. The transfer diagram
among the compartments is illustrated in Fig. 1. Note
that human beings (politicians) in A(t) and B(t)
constitute D(t) after victory at the poll. Also,  and
 do not increase the population of individuals in
E(t) but their welfare though they would be
considered in the equation for E(t). The two
parameters have a significant influence on the level
of participation of the electorates at the poll.

2

3. THE MODEL ANALYSIS

 A
 B
3.1. Positivity of Solutions.
D Since the model monitors human population, it is
B assumed that there exists a nonnegative initial
 E
 A
E condition for the state variables. We shall show that
the solutions of the model are positive.
B
A [Link]  =
 A, B, C , D, E    : A0  0, B0  0 
5

C C  ;
C0  0, D0  0, E0  0 
C therefore the solutions of  A, B, C , D, E are
positive for t  0 .
Proof. From the model equations, consider (1)
1
dA
  E  C   A 
Fig. 1. Transfer Diagram of the Model dt
dA
  A 
Going by the above assumptions and flow diagram, dt
we come about the following set of first order dA
ordinary differential equations.   dt 
A
dA dA
dt
dB
  E  C   A (1)
 A    dt
 C  E   B (2) Using separation of variable method and applying the
dt
dC initial condition, we obtain
 1   C   C (3)
dt A(t )  A 0 e  t  0 . (6)
dD
  A   B  D   D (4) Also, taking (2), that is,
dt

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dB Using separation of variable method together with the

 C  E   B initial condition yields,
dt
it is true that B (t )  B0e  t  0. (7)
dB
  B 
dt Similarly, considering (3), that is,
dB dE
  dt    2  E   E  D   D 
B dt
dB
 B     dt
 E  t   E0 e
    t
dC 0 (10)
 1   C   C
dt This completes the proof. Hence, the solutions of the
it is true that model are positive
dC
      C  3.2. The Stability Analysis
dt
dC Proposition 2. The model is stable if and only if
      dt 
C i  0, i  1, 2,3 ,  is an eigen value.
dC Proof. To prove the theorem, the Jacobian matrix of
 C       dt the system (1) – (5) is obtained as follows:
Using the same technique and applying initial   0  0  

condition,
 0   0  
C (t )  C0e  (   ) t  0. (8)
J   0 0     0 0 (11)
We consider the fourth equation which is  
  0    0 
dD
  A   B  D   D  0 0 0       
dt 
dD
 (   ) D  The characteristic equation of (11) is
dt (     ) 
dD     
 (   ) dt  0 0 
D 0      0 
dD 0
        
 D   (   ) dt 0 0    
0
      
 D  t   D0 e    0
   t
(9)
Lastly, we consider the fifth equation
(     ) 
      0  
 
              0 
dE  0            
      E  
 0     
0

dt 0
 
dE            
      dt   0 
E  0     
dE
 E        dt 

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() model. The parameters values stated in Table 1 are

used as the initial values before varying some of them
   0    to come about the results in Table2
   
     0  
 0 TABLE II. STABILITY RESULTS OF THE
  0     PARTY SWITCHING MODEL
    
 
which simplifies to
(     ) 
                 
       
        0, The numerical results in Table II are complemented
  with Fig. 2 – Fig. 4. The parameters values in Table I
           are the initial values for the parameters to plot the
curves while the initial values for the state variables
expanded into are: A(0)=1, B(0)=1, C(0)=75 000, D(0)=5 000,
E(0)=100 000 000
       
(12)
 k0  4  k1 3  k2  2  k3  k4   0
Where
k0  1
k1            
k2                    
         ,
k3                    
                   
and,
k4                     
In (12),
1      
Following Routh-Hurtwitz stability criteria in [26],
the remaining eigenvalues of (12) are all negative if
k1  0, k3  0, k4  0, and
x  0 where x  k1k2 k3  ( k3 2  k12 k 4 )
k1  0 is already satisfied. We shall employ
simulation to examine the state of other conditions by
using parameters values in Table 1. The values of
 and  are varied while the values of other
parameters are fixed to come about the results in
Table2.

4. SIMULATION AND DISCUSSION

We shall conduct the simulation with the help of

Maple software to conclude the theoretical results in
section 3 for the stability of the party switching

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 DAFFODIL INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, VOLUME 14, ISSUE 1, JULY 2019

that are related to the dividends of democracy from

both parties which are  and  to predict the
behaviour of the electorates, the results of which are
illustrated in Fig. 2 – Fig. 4. Fig. 2 is obtained by
using the parameters values in Table 1 together with
the stated initial values for the variables under Table 2
while Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 are obtained in the same
manner except changes to the parameter  and  .
We compare Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 with Fig. 2 to
investigate the behaviour of the electorates to changes
in the values of  and  . The numerical results for
E(t) in Fig. 2, Fig. 3 and Fig 4 are 47 675 260, 51 702
250 and 47 280 437 respectively. The implication of
these numerical results in relation to the figures is that
even though the motivation of the electorates to
participate in election declines with time as in the
case in Nigeria today, their willingness to cast votes is
better when the dividends of democracy from both
The model is stable when political office holders
parties are increased ten times (Fig. 3, E(t)= 51 702
deliver their electoral promises otherwise it is
250). Whereas, the electorates lose confidence in
unstable. Based on the assumption on which the
democracy and consider election a futile exercise
model is built, party A won more political offices than
when the dividends of democracy from both parties
party B and the expectation of the electorates was
are reduced ten times (Fig. 4, E(t)= 47 280 437).
higher from political office holders in party A than
political office holders in party B. S/No 2 – S/No 4 in
The outcome of the analysis reveals that true
Table 2 show that when the dividends of democracy
democracy has not been established in Nigeria.
delivered by political office holders from party A are
Defection is being used by the politicians to remain
ten times that of political office holders from party B,
on the political stage even when they fail to deliver.
the model is unstable because k4 = 0. The Therefore, for Nigeria to practice a true multiparty
implication of instability is that political office democracy the judiciary should make it clear the
holders from party A have not done enough to meet bases for legal defection and the same judiciary
their electoral promises which make the electorates through the law courts should make any politician
lose confidence in them. On the other hand, when the who defects illegally vacates his office.
dividends of democracy from the political office
holders from party B are ten times that of political 5. CONCLUSION
office holders from party A, the model is stable in a
certain region (S/No 6– S/No 9 in Table 2). The In this study, a mathematical model that described
implication of stability is that political office holders party switching phenomenon in Nigeria was designed.
from party A fall behind their counterparts from party The solutions of the model were proved to be positive
B in terms of performance which cost them their and the stability properties of the model were
places in the hearts of the electorates who voted for examined by using the stability theory of nonlinear
them. Consequently, the electorates are looking up to differential equations. Simulation was conducted to
party B in the future election and whoever contests on establish the stable and unstable regions in the model
the platform of party B has 99 out of 100 chances of where politicians were bent to switch political parties
winning the election. The political calculus and in order to avoid political suicide. To ensure political
permutation trigger defection and struggle for the stability and discourage incessant party switching, the
tickets of party B against the future general election societal disposition which places emphasis on the
for politicians to avoid political death. political parties at the expense of the integrity of the
party candidates should be addressed to safe
As regards Fig. 2 – Fig. 4, we place emphasis only on Nigerians from precarious mindset. Voting into public
the electorate compartment E(t) because the offices should be based on the integrity of the
electorates are at the receiving end of the electoral candidates and not on the political parties. Switching
processes and democracy to them is all about its from one political party to another will not make any
dividends. They are motivated to participate in difference if the attention of the electorates is not on
election when they enjoy dividends of democracy. the political parties but on the integrity of the
Based on that, we vary the values of the parameters candidates. However, while the study had provided

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 DAFFODIL INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, VOLUME 14, ISSUE 1, JULY 2019

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