Lecture 5

Developing a Project Plan

Reference Textbooks
• Project Management: The Managerial Process, 6/e
Erik W. Larson & Clifford F. Gray
McGraw Hill; 6 edition (October 16, 2013)
• A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge
PMBOK Guide, ANSI/PMI 99‐001‐2008
Project Management Institute (PMI) Global Standard
• Construction Planning for Engineers
Fletcher H. Griffis & John V. Farr
McGraw‐Hill College (October 6, 1999)
Course Outline
1. General Overview
2. Scope Management
3. Procurement Management
4. Risk Management
5. Developing a Project Plan
6. Scheduling Resources
7. Reducing Project Duration
8. Human Resources Management
9. Project Communication
10. Quality Management
11. Cost Management
12. Change Management
13. Safety Planning and Management
14. Ethics
15. Leadership
Developing a Project Plan
• Project Planning • Comparison of AON and AOA Methods
• Pre‐Project Planning • Three Basic Relationships
• EPC Macro Model Activity Summary • Activity Duration Estimating
• PPP Pre‐Project Planning • Operational Analysis
• Planning the Project • Reserve Analysis
• Schedule the Project • Schedule Network Analysis
• Activity Definition • Critical Path Method (CPM)
• Construction Activity • CPM & PERT
• Terminology • Forward Pass Computation
• Dividing a Project into Activities • Backward Pass Computation
• Activity Planning • Float (Slack)
• Types of Activities • Sensitivity
• Project Networks • Practical Considerations
• Network Diagrams • Activity Relationships
• Basic Rules to Follow in Developing Project • Hammock Activities
Networks
KEEP CALM AND PLAN AHEAD
by Logistics Cluster
Pre‐Project Planning
• Pre‐project planning is one of the most important factors in
developing a successful project. —Dr. Edward W. Merrow, founder
and CEO of IPA, Inc.
• Pre‐Project Planning:
• Scoping Activities
• Planning Activities
• Organizing Activities
EPC Macro Model Activity Summary
Developed by CII Research Team (RT #125)
PPP Pre‐Project Planning
Planning the Project
• Establishing the Objectives
• Identify Activities Required
• Group Activities into Major Sections (WBS/Work Packages)
• Determine Relationships
• Draw the Network
Schedule the Project
• The difference between a time estimate and a schedule is that the
schedule is calendar‐based.
• Crew the Activities
• Establish Activity Durations
• Timing Calculations
• Tabulation of the Schedule
• Preparing the Calendar Schedule
• Preparing the Bar (Gantt) Chart
Activity Definition
• In activity definition WBS is decomposed into activities (schedule
activities) and in activity sequencing those activities are sequenced
into the network diagram.
• In rolling wave planning, summary activities are not planned to the
detail needed to manage the work until you start the project
management process for that phase of the project life cycle.
• Progressive Elaboration:
• Starting with a high‐level product description and then defining it in more
detail through incremental steps as more information is gathered.
Construction Activity
• Clough and Sears (1991) define activities as the segments into which a
project is sub‐divided for planning purposes.
• It is a single work step that has a recognizable beginning and end and requires time
for its accomplishment.
• Gould (1997) adds that the activity should be large enough to identify
meaningful quantities of work, yet small enough to be sorted by assigned
trade or by project position.
• It should have a clearly defined scope of work without overlap or omission.
• The time horizon for the activity should be consistent with the level of detail
planning.
• Each activity should be the responsibility of one trade only.
• Humphreys (1991) adds that most activities normally have a requirement
for one or more resources.
Terminology
• Activity: an element of the project that requires time.
• Merge Activity: an activity that has two or more preceding activities on
which it depends.
• Parallel (Concurrent) Activities: Activities that can occur independently
and, if desired, not at the same time.
• Path: A sequence of connected, dependent activities.
• Critical Path: The longest path through the activity network that allows for
the completion of all project‐related activities; the shortest expected time
in which the entire project can be completed.
• Delays on the critical path will delay completion of the entire project.
• Event: A point in time when an activity is started or completed.
• It does not consume time.
• Burst Activity: An activity that has more than one activity immediately
following it (more than one dependency arrow flowing from it).
Dividing a Project into Activities
• By area of responsibility
• Work performed by general contractor and subcontractors should be separated.
• By category of work
• as distinguished by craft or crew requirements.
• as distinguished by equipment requirements.
• as distinguished by materials.
• By distinct structural elements such as footings, walls, beams, columns or slabs.
• By place on the project
• With regard to owner’s breakdown of the work for bidding or payment purposes.
• With regard to contractor’s breakdown for estimating and cost accounting
purposes. (Clough and Sears, 1991)
Activity Planning
• The resources required to accomplish the work
• The production rate associated with the resources
• The cost of those resources
• The quantities of work associated with the activities
Types of Activities
• Production‐related Activities
• Labor Driven Activities
• Planning for Equipment Governed Activities
• Heuristics
• Statistical Studies
• Cycle Time Analysis
• Queuing Theory
• Simulation
• Procurement‐related Activities
• Administrative Activities
Project Networks
• A flow chart that graphically depicts the sequence,
interdependencies, and start and finish times of the project job plan
of activities that is the critical path through the network.
• Provides the basis for scheduling labor and equipment.
• Enhances communication among project participants
• Provides an estimate of the project’s duration.
• Provides a basis for budgeting cash flow.
• Identifies activities that are critical.
• Highlights activities that are “critical” and can not be delayed.
• Help managers get and stay on plan.
Network Diagrams
• Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) or Activity‐on‐Node (AON)
• Uses a node to depict an activity.
• Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) or Activity‐on‐Arrow (AOA)
• Uses an arrow to depict an activity.
• Only allow for finish to start dependencies to be shown
• Dummies are usually represented by a dotted line and are inserted simply to show
dependencies between activities and must be included in your paths.
• They are not activities, they do not require work or take time.
• A critical path can run over a dummy
• GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) is a network diagram
drawing method that allows conditions, conditional branches and loops
between activities.
Basic Rules to Follow in Developing Project
Networks
1. Networks flow typically from left to right.
2. An activity cannot begin until all preceding connected activities have been completed.
3. Arrows on networks indicate precedence and flow.
• Arrows can cross over each other.
4. Each activity should have a unique identification number.
5. An activity identification number must be larger than that of any activities that
precede it.
6. Looping is not allowed (in other words, recycling through a set of activities cannot take
place).
7. Conditional statements are not allowed (that is, this type of statement should not
appear: If successful, do something; if not, do nothing).
8. Experience suggests that when there are multiple starts, a common start node can be
used to indicate a clear project beginning on the network.
• Similarly, a single project end node can be used to indicate a clear ending.
Three Basic Relationships that must be Established
for Activities included in a Project Network
1. Which activities must be completed immediately before this
activity?
• These activities are called predecessor activities.
2. Which activities must immediately follow this activity?
• These activities are called successor activities.
3. Which activities can occur while this activity is taking place?
• This is known as a concurrent or parallel relationship.
Activity Duration Estimating
• One‐Time Estimate: one estimate per activity is received.
• Padding is not an acceptable project management practice
• Analogous (Top‐Down) estimating is a form of expert judgment
• Least Reliable, Quickest, Easiest
• If the number being updated now was the same or very nearly the same as before then you would simply adopt that past figure (other factors
being equal as well), and that is analogous estimating.
• Parametric (Per) estimating uses a mathematical model to calculate projected (scaled) times for an activity based on historical
records from previous projects and other information
• Rule of Thumb: square feet in construction
• Regression analysis (scatter diagram)
• Learning curve (Each time output doubles worker hours per unit decrease by a fixed percentage. This percentage is called the learning rate.)
• Heuristics heuristic means a rules of thumb
• 80/20 rule
• Three‐Point time (or cost) estimates per activity is superior to one time (or cost) estimate because a weighted average is used
instead of the most likely estimate.
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
• Optimistic (O), Pessimistic (P) and Most Likely (M)
• Quantitatively Based estimate of activity duration, takes the quantities for each work category (e.g., number of drawings, meters
of cable, tons of steel) as defined by the engineering/design effort, and multiply them by the productivity unit rate (e.g., hours per
drawing, meters of cable per hour).
Operational Analysis
• The amount of work in the work task,
• The extent to which equipment is used in the work task,
• The extent to which labor is used in the work task, considering the
crew characteristics, size, physical effort, motivation, and leadership,
• The physical environment, and
• The quality and efficiency of management of the work task (Halpin
and Riggs, 1992).
Reserve Analysis
• Contingency reserve is for the risks remaining after risk response
planning.
• Management reserve is any extra amount of funds to be set aside to
cover unforeseen risks or changes to the project.
• The cost baseline will include the contingency reserve, and the cost
budget will include the management reserve.
Schedule Network Analysis
• PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
• Expected Activity Duration (PERT) = (P+4M+O)/6
• Range of the Estimates = Expected Activity Duration +/‐ SD
• SD = (P‐O)/6
• Variance = ((P‐O)/6)^2
• Project SD = SUM(Project Variances)^0.5
• Do not add standard deviations
Critical Path Method (CPM)
• The critical path is the longest duration path through a network
diagram and determines the shortest time to complete the project.
• The project is riskier when there is more than one critical path.
• Without any changes to the current plan or unless there is a great
impact on triple constraints, the new externally imposed date will not
change the critical path.
• Near‐Critical Path
Critical Path Method (CPM)
• Forward Pass (Earliest Times):
• Starting at time zero, calculate the earliest each activity can be started
1. How soon can the activity start? (early start—ES)
2. How soon can the activity finish? (early finish—EF)
3. How soon can the project be finished? (expected time—TE)
• The completion time of the last activity is the makespan
• Backward Pass (Latest Times):
• Starting at time equal to the makespan, calculate the latest each activity can be
started so that this makespan is realized
1. How late can the activity start? (late start—LS)
2. How late can the activity finish? (late finish—LF)
3. Which activities represent the critical path (CP)?
• This is the longest path in the network which, when delayed, will delay the project.
4. How long can the activity be delayed? (slack or float—SL)
CPM & PERT
• Procedure:
1. Determine the sequence of activities.
2. Construct the network or precedence diagram.
3. Starting from the left, compute the Early Start (ES) and Early Finish (EF) time
for each activity.
4. Starting from the right, compute the Late Finish (LF) and Late Start (LS) time
for each activity.
5. Find the slack for each activity.
6. Identify the Critical Path.
7. Determine the project duration.
Forward Pass Computation
• The forward pass requires that you remember just three things when
computing early activity times:
1. Add activity times along each path in the network (ES + DUR = EF).
2. Carry the early finish (EF) to the next activity where it becomes its early
start (ES), unless
3. The next succeeding activity is a merge activity. In this case you select the
largest early finish number (EF) of all its immediate predecessor activities.
Backward Pass Computation
• The backward pass is similar to the forward pass; you need to
remember three things:
1. Subtract activity times along each path starting with the project end activity
(LF ‐ DUR = LS).
2. Carry the LS to the next preceding activity to establish its LF, unless
3. The next preceding activity is a burst activity; in this case you select the
smallest LS of all its immediate successor activities to establish its LF.
Float (Slack)
• Float = LS ‐ ES = LF ‐ EF
• Activities on the critical path almost always have zero float.
• Generally the critical path should have zero float.
• Critical path activities that are delayed or have dictated dates can result in negative float.
• You can have negative float if the project is behind an imposed external date, when an activity is
late, etc.
• Float Types:
• Total (Path): The total amount of time that a schedule activity may be delayed from its early start
without delaying the project finish date, or violating a schedule constraint.
• Calculated using the critical path method technique and determining the difference between the early finish
dates and late finish dates.
• Free (Activity): The amount of time that a schedule activity can be delayed without delaying the
early start date of any immediately following schedule activities.
• The amount of time an activity can be delayed after the start of a longer parallel activity or activities.
• Allows flexibility in scheduling scarce resources.
• Free Float = ESs – EFp ‐ Lag
• Project
Sensitivity
• The likelihood the original critical path(s) will change once the project
is initiated.
• The critical path is the network path(s) that has (have) the least slack
in common.
Practical Considerations
• Network Logic Errors
• Activity Numbering
• Use of Computers to Develop Networks
• Calendar Dates
• Multiple Starts and Multiple Projects
Activity Relationships
• Laddering: Activities are broken into segments so the following activity can begin
sooner and not delay the work.
• Lead: A modification of a logical relationship that allows an acceleration of the
successor activity.
• Coding might be able to start five days before the design is finished
• Lag: A modification of a logical relationship that directs a delay in the successor
activity.
• The minimum amount of time a dependent activity must be delayed to begin or end.
• Lengthy activities are broken down to reduce the delay in the start of successor activities.
• Lags can be used to constrain finish‐to‐start, start‐to‐start, finish‐to‐finish, start‐to‐finish, or
combination relationships.
• You must wait three days after pouring concrete before you can construct the frame for the
house
• Buffers (Reserves): Placed in the schedule after high‐risk tasks or tasks that have a
high risk of slipping to lower the cost or schedule risk’s probably or impact
(mitigation)
Hammock Activities
• A hammock activity derives its duration from the time span between
other activities.
• Duration of hammock activities is determined after the network plan is
drawn.
• They are used to aggregate sections of the project to facilitate getting that
right amount of detail for specific sections of a project.
• They are frequently used to identify the use of fixed resources or costs over a
segment of the project.
• Typical examples of hammock activities are inspection services, consultants,
or construction management services.
• This approach is some‐times used to present a “macro network” for upper
management levels.
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