Multi - Hazard MODULE 7
Risk
Assessment and
Mapping
A comprehensive guide to
interpreting hazard,
vulnerability, and risk maps
for disaster resiliency
students
ENGR. RAUL R. BECERRO, JR.
BSDRM Faculty/ Instructor
01 - Interpret Hazard Maps
02 - Analyze Vulnerability
Assessments
03 - Understand Risk Mapping
04 - Apply Assessment Techniques
Hazard Risk Mapping
03 - History
Multi - Hazard Risk Assessment integrates
multiple hazard types to evaluate potential
impacts on communities and infrastructure
Multi - hazard risk assessment is a systematic process that identifies,
analyzes, and evaluates risks from multiple natural and human - induced
hazards occurring simultaneously or sequentially. It is essential for effective
disaster management, enabling communities to prioritize resources and
implement targeted mitigation strategies.
The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - 2030 provides the
global blueprint, emphasizing understanding disaster risk, strengthening
governance, investing in resilience, and enhancing preparedness. Integration
of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure data creates comprehensive risk
maps that guide evidence - based decision - making for sustainable
development and community safety.
04 - The Risk Risk = Hazard ×
Vulnerability ×
Equation
Risk is the product of three interrelated factors: hazard, Exposure
vulnerability, and exposure. Understanding this equation is
fundamental to disaster resiliency practice. Hazard refers
to the potential occurrence of a natural or human -
induced physical event. Vulnerability describes the
conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and
environmental factors that increase susceptibility.
Exposure represents the people, property, systems, or
other elements present in hazard zones that are subject
to potential losses.
Hazard
"Risk - informed decision - making is essential for
sustainable development and saving lives" —
UNDRR Exposure
Types of Natural
Hazards
Natural hazards are categorized into four main types based on
their origin and triggering mechanisms:
• Geological Hazards: Earthquakes caused by tectonic plate
movements, and landslides triggered by seismic activity, heavy
rainfall, or slope instability
• Hydrometeorological Hazards: Floods from river overflow, storm
surges, and intense rainfall; typhoons/cyclones with destructive
winds, heavy rain, and storm surges
• Climatological Hazards: Droughts resulting from prolonged
precipitation deficits, affecting agriculture, water supply, and
livelihoods over extended periods
• Biological Hazards: Epidemics and disease outbreaks, pest
infestations, and invasive species that disrupt ecosystems and
human health systems
• Understanding hazard classification is essential for selecting
appropriate assessment methodologies and mapping techniques
for each hazard type
Global Hazard Occurrence Trends
2000 - 2024
07 - Hazard Mapping
Fundamentals
Data sources, GIS applications, and remote
sensing technologies form the foundation of
modern hazard mapping for disaster
resiliency
• Primary data sources: satellite imagery (Landsat, Sentinel), aerial
photography, LiDAR, and ground - based sensor networks
• GIS applications: spatial analysis, layer overlay techniques, buffer zone
mapping, and digital elevation models (DEMs)
• Remote sensing technologies: Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR),
multispectral imaging, thermal detection, and change detection
algorithms
• Historical event analysis: event cataloging, frequency - magnitude
relationships, return period calculations, and paleohazard reconstructions
• Integration framework: combining multi - source data into unified
geodatabases for comprehensive hazard identification and classification
01 - Hazard Zones
02 - Intensity Levels
03 - Return Periods
04 - Spatial Extent
Boundaries
Hazard Mapping
04 - Vulnerability "Vulnerability is the characteristics of a
person or group and their situation that
influence their capacity to anticipate, cope
Dimensions with, resist, and recover from the impact
of a natural hazard."
— Wisner et al., At Risk (2004)
Vulnerability encompasses four key dimensions that
shape how communities experience and recover from
hazards:
• Physical vulnerability: Quality of buildings, infrastructure,
and critical facilities that may withstand or collapse
during disasters Physical
• Social vulnerability: Demographic factors including age,
gender, disability, and social capital that affect
preparedness and response capacity Social
• Economic vulnerability: Livelihood diversity, income levels,
and insurance coverage that determine recovery
potential
• Environmental vulnerability: Degradation of natural Vulnerability assessment integrates
protective systems (wetlands, mangroves, forests) and qualitative and quantitative data to
exposure to multiple hazards identify priority intervention areas
Understanding these interconnected dimensions enables
targeted interventions that reduce risk and build
community resilience.
Vulnerability Indicators
Breakdown
Vulnerability assessment weights key factors to
prioritize risk reduction efforts:
• Infrastructure Condition (35%): Age and quality of
buildings, roads, bridges, and critical facilities that may
fail during hazard events
• Population Density (25%): Concentration of people in
hazard - prone zones, affecting evacuation complexity
and potential casualty numbers
• Socioeconomic Status (25%): Income levels, housing
quality, and access to resources that determine
adaptive capacity and recovery speed
• Institutional Capacity (15%): Local government
preparedness, emergency response systems, and
community organization effectiveness
Vulnerability Assessment
Matrix
12 - Exposure
Analysis
Population, infrastructure, and land use
patterns define who and what is at risk when
hazards strike
• Population at Risk: Identify demographic concentrations in hazard - prone
zones using census data and settlement maps
• Critical Infrastructure Mapping: Locate hospitals, schools, utilities, and
transportation networks that must remain functional during disasters
• Land Use Patterns: Analyze residential, commercial, agricultural, and
industrial zones to determine potential economic and social impacts
• Temporal Exposure Variations: Account for daily, seasonal, and event -
based population shifts — commuter flows, tourist seasons, and nighttime vs.
daytime occupancy
• Integration with Hazard Data: Combine exposure layers with hazard
frequency and intensity maps to estimate potential consequences
13 - Risk Mapping Overlay analysis reveals
where hazards intersect
Principles
Risk mapping integrates multiple data layers to visualize
with vulnerable
and analyze hazard - vulnerability interactions. Overlay
communities
analysis combines hazard zones with exposure data to
identify at - risk populations and assets. Weighted scoring
assigns numerical values to risk factors based on their
relative importance, enabling systematic prioritization.
Spatial interpolation estimates hazard values across
unsampled locations using known data points, producing
continuous risk surfaces. These methods form the
methodological foundation for quantitative risk
assessment in disaster resiliency practice (IPCC AR6,
2023).
IPCC AR6
Weighted scoring and spatial interpolation
transform raw data into actionable risk priorities
Methods
01 - Expert Judgment
02 - Community Consultations
03 - Historical Analysis
04 - Scenario Development
Qualitative Assessment
Risk Matrix Framework
Quantitative Risk Assessment
Methods
Statistical Modeling Approaches
• Regression analysis identifies relationships between hazard frequency, intensity, and exposure
variables
• Time - series modeling predicts hazard occurrence patterns using historical disaster databases
• Spatial statistics (Kriging, kernel density) interpolate hazard values across unsampled areas
• Monte Carlo simulation generates thousands of probabilistic scenarios for uncertainty
quantification
• Generalized linear models estimate probability of loss given specific hazard parameters
Probabilistic Analysis Techniques
• Annual exceedance probability curves show likelihood of hazards exceeding various thresholds
• Event tree analysis maps sequences from initiating event to multiple consequence branches
• Fault tree analysis calculates top - event probability from combinations of component failures
• Bayesian methods update prior probabilities with new observational data for dynamic
assessment
• Joint probability distributions model correlated hazards (e.g., earthquake - triggered landslides)
Loss Estimation Methodology
• Exposure databases catalog building types, occupancies, and replacement values by
geographic unit
• Vulnerability functions (fragility curves) relate hazard intensity to damage probability
distributions
• Direct economic losses include structural damage, contents, and business interruption costs
• Indirect losses capture supply chain disruptions, infrastructure service degradation, and
recovery expenses
• Probabilistic loss exceedance curves enable comparison of risk across different hazard types
and regions
17 - GIS in Risk
Assessment
Spatial analysis tools transform raw
geographic data into actionable risk
intelligence for disaster resiliency planning
• Buffer analysis creates proximity zones around critical infrastructure,
identifying at - risk populations and assets within defined hazard distances
• Overlay operations integrate multiple data layers — hazard zones, land use,
population density — to reveal compound risk patterns and vulnerability
hotspots
• 3D terrain modeling simulates flood inundation, landslide runout, and storm
surge propagation using digital elevation models and hydrological algorithms
• Network analysis maps evacuation route capacity and critical facility
accessibility under multi - hazard scenarios
• Spatial interpolation techniques (Kriging, IDW) estimate hazard intensity and
exposure levels in data - sparse regions based on sampled ground
measurements
04 - Data Collection for Risk "Data collection is the foundation of
risk assessment. The quality of risk
Assessment information depends on the
diversity and reliability of sources
used." — GFDRR, 2021
• Primary sources: field surveys, structured
interviews with community members,
participatory mapping sessions, and direct hazard
observations
• Secondary sources: government databases, Primary
academic research, historical disaster records,
census data, and existing hazard maps
• Remote sensing: satellite imagery, aerial Secondary
photography, LiDAR, and UAV/drone surveys for
terrain analysis and change detection
• Community - based surveys: household
vulnerability questionnaires, focus group Combining remote sensing with
discussions, and local knowledge documentation community - based participatory
methods enhances data accuracy
• Integration approach: triangulate multiple data and local ownership of risk
sources to validate findings and fill information information
gaps across spatial and temporal scales
Multi - Hazard Interaction
Matrix
01 - Risk
Identification
02 - Risk Analysis
03 - Risk Evaluation
04 - Risk Ranking
Identify Prioritize
Risk Prioritization
Criteria
• Likelihood: Probability of hazard occurrence based on
historical data, frequency analysis, and scientific
projections
• Consequence Severity: Potential impacts on lives,
infrastructure, economy, and environment using
standardized damage scales
• Community Capacity: Existing preparedness levels, early
warning systems, and local response capabilities
• Resource Availability: Access to emergency funds,
personnel, equipment, and external support networks
• Weighted Scoring: Combine factors using analytical
hierarchy process (AHP) or multi - criteria decision analysis
(MCDA) for ranked risk priorities
Visual suggestion: Replace pie chart with a weighted
criteria radar chart or stacked bar graph showing relative
factor importance scores across different hazard types
22 - Case
Study
Philippine Multi - Hazard
Assessment
• DOST - PAGASA leads climate and weather hazard mapping, producing
cyclone, flood, and storm surge risk assessments for all 1,634 municipalities
• PHIVOLCS generates volcanic hazard, seismic, and tsunami maps using
deterministic and probabilistic approaches across the Philippine
archipelago
• Integration efforts combine meteorological and geological datasets into
unified multi - hazard platforms for national and local planning
• The Philippine Exposure Database (PhilED) links hazard data with
population, building, and infrastructure vulnerability indicators
• Students analyze these integrated outputs to identify priority barangays
requiring risk reduction investments and early warning system upgrades
Philippine Disaster Risk
Profile
04 - Community - Based Risk Assessment Local knowledge is a critical asset in
risk assessment — communities often
possess decades of undocumented
hazard observations that scientific
instruments cannot replicate
Community - based risk assessment empowers local
stakeholders to identify, analyze, and prioritize hazards
through participatory methods.
Key approaches include:
• Participatory mapping exercises where residents
document local hazards, vulnerable infrastructure, and safe Maps
zones using hand - drawn or digital tools
• Integration of indigenous and local knowledge with
scientific data to capture hazard patterns outside formal
Participation
monitoring systems
• Stakeholder engagement through focus groups, barangay
consultations, and community risk assessments to ensure
inclusive representation
• Qualitative techniques such as historical timeline analysis, CBDRM frameworks emphasize that risk
seasonal calendars, and transect walks to document lived reduction is most effective when
experiences communities own the assessment process
from identification to action planning
• Quantitative methods including household vulnerability
scoring, exposure counts, and risk ranking matrices
developed collaboratively
25 - Emerging Integrating cutting
technologies revolutionizes multi
- edge
-
Technologies
Artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms
hazard risk assessment
capabilities for disaster resiliency
professionals
analyze vast datasets to predict hazard patterns and
assess vulnerability with unprecedented accuracy.
Drone mapping technologies provide high - resolution,
real - time imagery for rapid damage assessment and
terrain analysis. IoT sensor networks and satellite - based
monitoring systems deliver continuous data streams for
early warning and dynamic risk tracking. Big data
analytics integrate multi - source information to identify
complex risk interdependencies and support evidence -
based decision - making.
AI / ML
"Technology transforms how we perceive,
analyze, and respond to disaster risks in real
time." Drones & IoT
01 - Sendai Framework 2015 -
2030
02 - SDGs Goal 11 & 13
03 - Paris Agreement
04 - IPCC Guidelines
Global Frameworks
27 - Challenges &
Limitations
Challenges in Multi - Hazard Assessment: Data
gaps, uncertainty, scale issues, and resource
constraints
• Data gaps: Inconsistent historical records, missing exposure data, and limited access to
hazard inventories hinder comprehensive risk profiling across multiple hazards
• Uncertainty management: Probabilistic models carry inherent uncertainties in frequency
estimation, magnitude prediction, and scenario boundaries that affect decision
confidence
• Scale issues: Local - scale assessments may miss regional hazard interactions, while
coarse national maps lack granularity for community - level planning and intervention
design
• Resource constraints: Limited funding, technical capacity shortages, and time pressures
often force trade - offs between assessment depth, spatial coverage, and stakeholder
participation
• Interdisciplinary barriers: Integrating geospatial, engineering, social science, and climate
data requires harmonized frameworks that many institutions have yet to develop
Best Practices for Multi - Hazard Risk
Assessment:
• Integrated Approaches: Combine hazard,
vulnerability, and exposure data across
multiple threats rather than analyzing single
hazards in isolation
• Stakeholder Participation: Engage local
communities, government agencies, and
technical experts throughout the mapping
and assessment process
• Continuous Updating: Regularly revise risk
maps and databases to reflect changing
conditions, new data, and emerging threats
• Evidence - Based Decision Making: Ground
prioritization and resource allocation on
Effective risk
quantitative risk metrics and validated assessment requires
qualitative techniques collaboration, adaptive
methods, and actionable
04 - Conclusions data to build resilient
communities.
29 - Key
Takeaways
Risk assessment forms the
foundation of effective
disaster risk reduction
strategies
• Risk assessment is the cornerstone of all DRR efforts — without understanding
hazards, vulnerabilities, and exposure, communities cannot effectively reduce disaster
impacts
• A multi - hazard perspective is essential because hazards interact and compound;
single - hazard approaches miss cascading effects and systemic risks that can
devastate communities
• Combining qualitative methods (participatory mapping, expert judgment, community
surveys) with quantitative techniques (statistical modeling, GIS analysis, risk indices)
Data produces more robust and actionable results
• Effective risk prioritization requires integrating scientific data with local knowledge,
ensuring that technical assessments reflect ground realities and community priorities
• BS in Disaster Resiliency graduates must be proficient in both interpreting risk maps
Visualization
and communicating findings to diverse stakeholders, from policymakers to at - risk
communities
Thank
You!
Questions & Discussion
Alba Castro | BS Disaster Resiliency
Recommended References:
• UNDRR (2024). Global Risk Assessment
Framework