2.

Formulating a hypothesis

My research is based on the causes, impacts and management of drought

in Cape Town, especially during the 2015 to 2018 drought.

Supporting data:

1) Dam levels in Cape Town dropped to about 20% in 2017

2) Residents were limited to 50 litres of water per person per day.

3) Rainfall was significantly below average for these three

consecutive years

Hypothesis:

Drought in Cape Town is mainly caused by low rainfall and poor water
management. It has serious negative effects on both the environment and
the economy.
 3. Defining drought

A drought occurs when a place does not get enough

rain for a long time. This causes water shortages in
rivers, dams, and in the ground. Because of this, there
is not enough water for people, farms, and animals.
Drought does not only occur when there is no rain. It
also occurs when too much water is being used. For
example, if a city has lots of people and farms but not
enough dams to store water a drought also occurs.
South Africa often struggles with drought because it is a
dry country and does not get much rain compared to
other places.

4. Area being Researched

The area I chose to research is Cape Town and Cape
Town is located in the Western Cape province of South
Africa. It has a Mediterranean climate with wet winters
and dry summers. The city depends on rainfall and
dams like Theewaterskloof Dam for water. Between
2015 and 2018, Cape Town experienced a severe
drought that nearly led to “Day Zero,” when water
supplies were almost cut off. The drought was caused
by low rainfall, population growth, and increased water
demand.
 [Link] of droughts

1) Low or lack of rainfall-

Droughts occur when an area gets much less rain than normal for a long
time. This causes rivers and dams to dry up and soil to lose moisture.
Crops and livestock suffer because there isn’t enough water.

2) High temperatures and heatwaves

High temperatures increase evaporation, so water dries up faster than

rain can replace it. Heat also makes soil hard, so rain runs off instead of
soaking in. This makes drought worse.

3) Climate change

Climate change disrupts normal weather patterns. It can shift rainfall,

causing longer dry seasons and more frequent droughts in some areas.
South Africa has had more unpredictable rain recently because of this.

4) Deforestation

Cutting down trees reduces moisture released into the air through
transpiration. Fewer trees means less cloud formation and rainfall. This
disrupts the water cycle and makes the land drier.

5) Overuse of water resources

- Excessive irrigation, industry, and wasting water drain rivers and dams
faster than they refill. Leaking pipes and taps left running in cities also
waste water. This contributes to drought, especially in dry periods.
 [Link] of Droughts

1) Meteorological drought : This occurs when an area experiences

below average rainfall over a long period. It is usually the first sign of
drought and is based purely on weather conditions.

2) Agricultural drought : This happens when there is not enough soil

moisture for crops to grow properly. Even if it rains a little, the water may
not be enough for farming, leading to poor harvests.

3) Hydrological drought : This type occurs when water levels in rivers,

dams, and groundwater drop significantly. It usually happens after a long
period of meteorological drought and affects water supply for people and
ecosystems.
 7. Impacts of droughts:

1) Water shortages - Drought reduces rainfall, causing rivers and dams

in Cape Town to dry up. This leads to strict water restrictions and limited
access to clean water for households and businesses.

2)Agricultural decline - Crops fail due to lack of water and dry soil, and
livestock may die. Farmers lose income and food production decreases,
which can lead to shortages.

3) Economic impacts - Businesses that depend on water, such as

farming and tourism, suffer losses. This can lead to job losses and higher
food prices, affecting the overall economy of the area.

4) Environmental damage - Vegetation dies, soil becomes dry and

infertile, and the risk of wildfires increases. Wildlife also struggles to
survive due to lack of water and food.

5) Social problems - Communities may face conflict over limited water

resources. People’s health can also be affected due to poor sanitation and
lack of clean drinking water.
 7.1. Impact of droughts on the
natural environment

1) Loss of vegetation - Drought reduces water availability, which causes

plants, grass, and trees to dry out and die. Without enough moisture,
plants cannot photosynthesise properly or grow. This leads to large areas
losing their natural green cover, exposing the land and making the
environment look dry and barren. It also affects organisms that depend on
plants for food and shelter.

2) Soil degradation - When there is no rain, the soil becomes extremely

dry, loose, and cracked. This makes it easier for wind to blow away the
topsoil, a process known as erosion. The topsoil contains important
nutrients needed for plant growth, so its loss reduces soil fertility and
makes it difficult for vegetation to grow again even after the drought ends.

3) Decline in wildlife populations - Drought limits the availability of

water and food sources for animals. Many animals are forced to migrate to
other areas in search of water, while weaker ones may die due to
dehydration or starvation. This disrupts food chains and leads to a
decrease in biodiversity, as some species may not survive the harsh
conditions.

4) Increased risk of wildfires - High temperatures and dry conditions

during droughts cause vegetation to become highly flammable. Even a
small spark can start a wildfire. These fires spread quickly and destroy
forests, grasslands, and habitats, killing plants and animals and damaging
the ecosystem for long periods.

5) Reduced water levels in rivers and dams - Drought causes water

sources such as rivers, lakes, and dams to shrink or dry up completely.
This affects aquatic ecosystems, leading to the death of fish and other
water organisms due to lack of oxygen and habitat. It also disrupts the
balance of ecosystems that rely on these water sources for survival.

7.2. Impact of droughts on the

economy
1) Reduced agricultural production - Drought leads to a shortage of
water for crops and livestock, causing crops to fail and animals to become
weak or die. Farmers produce less food, which lowers their income and
affects the supply of agricultural products in the market.

2) Increase in food prices - When there is less food being produced due
to drought, the supply decreases while demand stays the same or
increases. This causes food prices to rise, making it more expensive for
people to buy basic goods and increasing the cost of living.

3) Loss of jobs - Many people depend on agriculture and related

industries for employment. During a drought, farms may reduce workers
or shut down completely due to financial losses. This leads to
unemployment and loss of income for many families.

4) Reduced economic growth - Drought affects key sectors like

agriculture, manufacturing, and energy production. With less production
and income, the overall economy slows down. This can lower a country’s
GDP and reduce government revenue from taxes.
5) Increased government spending - Governments often need to
provide relief during droughts, such as food aid, water supply, and
financial support to farmers. They may also invest in emergency
infrastructure like water tanks or irrigation systems, which puts pressure
on national budgets.

8.1. Strategies to manage a

drought

1) Taking shorter showers - People should limit their shower time to about
3–5 minutes. Long showers use a lot of water, especially during drought
periods. By reducing shower time, households can save large amounts of
water every day.

2) Reusing Grey water - Instead of letting used water go to waste, it can

be collected and reused. For example, water from washing clothes or
bathing can be used to water plants or flush toilets, reducing the need for
fresh water.
3) Fixing leaking taps and pipes - A single leaking tap can waste litres of
water daily. Repairing leaks immediately prevents unnecessary water loss
and helps conserve water during drought conditions.

4) Watering plants at the right time - Watering gardens early in the

morning or in the evening helps reduce evaporation caused by heat. This
ensures that more water reaches the plants instead of being lost.

5) Turning off taps when not in use - People often leave taps running while
brushing their teeth or washing dishes. Turning off the tap when it’s not
needed can save a significant amount of water each day, helping to
reduce overall water wastage during a drought.

8.2. Sustainable ways to address

a drought

1) Building dams and reservoirs - Governments can construct dams to

store water during rainy periods. This stored water can then be used
during droughts, ensuring a stable supply for communities, agriculture,
and industry.

2) Implementing rainwater harvesting systems - Homes, schools, and

businesses can install systems to collect and store rainwater from
rooftops. This reduces reliance on municipal water and provides an
alternative source during dry periods.

3) Using water-efficient irrigation systems - Farmers can switch to

methods like drip irrigation, which delivers water directly to plant roots.
This reduces water wastage and ensures crops receive enough water even
during drought conditions.

4) Recycling and treating wastewater - Wastewater can be treated and

reused for purposes like irrigation or industrial use. This helps conserve
fresh water and creates a more sustainable water supply system.

5) Planting drought-resistant crops- Farmers can grow crops that require

less water and can survive dry conditions. This improves food security and
reduces the impact of drought on agriculture over time.

9. ACCEPT/REJECT
HYPOTHESIS

I accept the hypothesis based on the following

data from Cape Towns 2015 to 2018 drought :
 1. The drought was caused by low rainfall.
Rainfall was below average for three years from
2015–2018. This caused dam levels to drop to
about 20% in 2017.

2. The drought had serious negative effects.

Water shortages meant residents were limited to
50 litres per person per day. This impacted
households, businesses, and farming.

10. Conclusion
In conclusion, my research on the 2015–2018 Cape
Town drought proves the hypothesis is correct. Low
rainfall for three years from 2015–2018 caused dam
levels to drop to 20% in 2017, and poor water
 management made it worse. Environmentally, rivers
dried up and soil eroded, while economically, residents
were limited to 50 litres per day and businesses lost
money. The city spent millions to avoid ‘Day Zero’. The
drought forced Cape Town to improve management
through restrictions, repairs, and awareness campaigns.
New strategies like groundwater use and desalination
are now being explored. Overall, the drought shows
that low rainfall and poor management cause crises,
but good planning can reduce impacts.

11. BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. City of Cape Town. 2018. Water Dashboard: Dam Levels and Water
Usage, 15 January 2018. Cape Town: City of Cape Town

2. Wolski, P. 2018. How severe is Cape Town’s “Day Zero” drought? 23

January 2018. University of Cape Town: Climate System Analysis Group.
Available at: [Link] za
3. South African Weather Service. 2018. Annual Climate Summary for
South Africa 2017, March 2018. Pretoria: SAWS.

4. Muller, M. 2017. Understanding the Cape Town drought. The

Conversation, 31 August 2017. Available at:
[Link]

5. Department of Water and Sanitation. 2018. Western Cape Water Crisis

Report, 2 February 2018. Pretoria: DWS.