PROBABILITY
Random experiment
Experiments are called random experiments if the outcomes depend on chance and
cannot be predicted with certainty.
Example
i) Tossing of a coin is a random experiment.
ii) Throwing a die is a random experiment.
iii) Drawing ball from a bag is a random experiment
iv) Playing football is a random experiment.
Outcome
The result which is observed after a random experiment is known as outcome.
Example
Two coins are tossed, the outcome will be HH or HT or TH or TT.
Sample Space
In any random experiment, the set of all possible outcomes is called the sample space.
Example
i) In throwing two coins, then sample space is
S= { HH, HT, TH, TT }
ii) If a die is thrown, then sample space is
S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
Event
A subset of the sample space is called event.
Example
1. Let A be a statement that both six number will be observed in both dice if two dice are
thrown. Here A={66} is an event.
2. Let A= Event that the two coins show head in two coins tossing = {HH}. Here A is a
event.
Types of Probability
There are three basic types of probability:
i) Classical probability.
ii) Empirical or relative frequency probability
iii) Subjective probability
Use of types of Probability
Classical probability uses sample spaces. Empirical probability uses frequency distributions and
is based on observation. In subjective probability, the researcher makes an educated guess about
the chance of an event occurring.
Classical probability
The probability of any event E is equal to the number of favorable outcomes
in any event E divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
The probability of any event E is
number of favourable outcomes in E
P(E)=
total number of outcomes in the sample space
Range of probability
0 P( E ) 1 .
Probability of an event may be zero or one in some extreme cases.
Limitations of the Classical probability
(i)It is not suitable if outcomes of a random experiment are not equally likely.
(ii) It is not suitable if n is unknown or infinite.
Problem1: If two coins are tossed once, what is the probability of getting i. both heads,
ii. at least one head.
Solution:
Sample space
S={HH, HT, TH, TT}
n=Number of possible outcomes to the sample space=4
m= Number of favourable outcome to the event
i. Event, A={HH} m= 1.
m 1
P(A)= (Ans.)
n 4
ii. Event, B={HH,HT,TH} m=2
m 3
P(B)= (Ans.)
n 4
Problem 2
Three unbiased coins are tossed. What is the probability of obtaining i) all heads,
ii) two heads, iii) one head, iv) at least one head, v)at least two heads, vi) all tails?
Solution:
Sample space
S={HHH, HHT,THH,HTH,THT,TTH,HTT, TTT}
Let n= Total number of possible outcomes=8
m= Number of favorable outcomes
(i) Event
m 1
A= {HHH} m=1 P(A) =
n 8
(ii) Event
m 3
B = {THH, HHT,HTH} m=3 P(B)=
n 8
(iii) Event
m 3
C={ HTT,THT,TTH } m=3 P(C)=
n 8
(iv) Event
D={ HHH,HHT,THH,HTH,THT,TTH,HTT }
m 7
m=7 P(D)=
n 8
(v) Event
m 4
E={ HHH,HHT,THH,HTH } m=4 P(E)=
n 8
(vi) Event
m 1
E={ TTT } m=1 P(E)=
n 8
Problem 3
Two unbiased dice are thrown once. Find the probability that i) both dice show same
number, ii) first die shows even number, iii) both dice show even number, iv) sum of
the upper faces of the dice is 8 or more, v) sum of the upper faces of the dice is above 10,
vi) sum of the upper faces of the dice is less than 7, vii) second die shows number 5 or more.
Solution: The sample space of the experiment is
11 21 31 41 51 61
12 22 32 42 52 62
13 23 33 43 53 63
S=
14 24 34 44 54 64
15 25 35 45 55 65
16 26 36 46 56 66
Let n=Number of possible outcomes=36
m=Number of favorable outcomes to an event
m 6 1
i) Let event A={ 11,22,33,44,55,66 } m=6 P(A)= =
n 36 6
ii) Let event B={ 21,41,61,22,42,62,23,43,63,24,44,64,25,45,65,26,46,66 }
m 18 1
m=18 P(B)= =
n 36 2
m 9 1
iii) Let C={22, 42, 62, 24, 44, 64, 26, 46, 66} m=9
P(C)= =
n 36 4
iv) Let D ={62, 53, 63, 44, 54, 64, 35, 45, 55, 65, 26, 36, 46, 56, 66}
m 15 5
m=15 P(D)= =
n 36 12
m 3 1
v) Let E ={65, 56, 66} m=3 P(E)= =
n 36 12
vi) Let F ={11, 21, 31, 41, 51, 12, 22, 32, 42, 13, 23, 33, 14, 24, 15}
m 15 5
m= 15 P(E)= =
n 36 12
vii)Let G ={15, 25, 35, 45, 55, 65, 16, 26, 36, 46, 56, 66}
m 12 1
m= 12 P(G)= =
n 36 3
Problem 4
In a packet there are 6 books, three of which are on mathematics and 3 are on
statistics. Two books are taken at random. Find the probability that i) the drawn
books are on mathematics, ii) the drawn books are on statistics, iii) one of the
drawn book is on mathematics and another one is on statistics.
Solution: Mathematics Books=M1, M2, M3
Statistics Books=S1, S2, S3
Two books are drawn, and then sample space
S={M1 M2, M1 M3, M2 M3, M1 S1, M1 S2, M1 S3, M2 S1, M2 S2, M2 S3, M3 S1, M3 S2,
M3 S3, S1 S2 , S1 S3 , S2 S3 }
Let n= Total number of possible outcomes=15
m=Number of favourable outcomes of an event
i) Let event
m 3
A={ M1 M2, M1 M3, M2 M3} m=3 P(A)= =1/5
n 15
ii) Let event
m 3
B={ S1 S2 , S1 S3 , S2 S3 } m= 3 P(B)= =1/5
n 15
iii) Let event
C = {M1 S1, M1 S2, M1 S3, M2 S1, M2 S2, M2 S3, M3 S1, M3 S2, M3 S3}
m 9 3
m=9 P(C)= =
n 15 5
Problem 5
In a box there are 5 balls numbered 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. One ball is drawn at random
from the box and is not replaced it in the box. From the remaining 4 balls another
ball is drawn at random. If the drawing of balls is equally like, find the probability
that (i) the first drawn ball bear odd number. (ii) both the balls bear even number.
(iii) the second drawn ball bears even number.
Solution:
Then sample space of the experiment is
12 13 14 15
21 23 24 25
S= 31 32 34 35
41 42 43 45
51 52 53 54
Let n=Number of possible outcomes=20
Again, let m=Number of favourable outcomes of an event
m 12 3
(i) Let A={12, 13, 14, 15, 31, 32, 34, 35, 51, 52, 53, 54} m= 12 P(A)= =
n 20 5
m 2 1
(ii) Let B={ 24, 42} m= 2 P(B)= =
n 20 10
m 8 2
(iii) Let C={12, 14, 24, 32, 34, 42, 52, 54} m= 8 P(A)= =
n 20 5
Problem6. In an office there are 5 computers identified by serial number 1, 2,3,4,5. Two
computers are randomly assigned for two office assistants to work (i) at different
periods, (ii) at the same time. Find the probability that (a) both of the office
assistants will use the computer of same serial number,(b) one who will use the
computer in first period will use the computer of odd serial numbers.