Introduction to Probability Theory

● Probability is an intuitive concept. We use it on a daily basis without necessarily

realising that we are speaking and applying probability to work.
● Experiment – are the uncertain situations, which could have multiple outcomes.
Whether it rains on a daily basis is an experiment.
● Outcome is the result of a single trial. So, if it rains today, the outcome of today’s trial
from the experiment is “It rained”
● Event is one or more outcome from an experiment. “It rained” is one of the possible
event for this experiment.
● Probability is a measure of how likely an event is. So, if it is 60% chance that it will
rain tomorrow, the probability of Outcome “it rained” for tomorrow is 0.6
● Probability is the measure of how likely event will occur.
● Probability is the ratio of desired outcomes to total outcomes.
Introduction to Probability Theory
● Probability = (Desired Outcomes)/(Total Outcomes)
● Probability of all outcomes always sums to 1.
● Example:-
● On rolling dice, we get 6 possible outcomes.
● Each possibility only has one outcomes, so each has probability is ⅙
● For example the probability of getting number 2 on dice is ⅙.
● Probability is used to predict the likelihood of the future event.
● Statistics is used to analyse the past events
Probability Theory – Terminology
● It have three basic terminology
1. Random experiment
2. Sample space
3. Event
● Random experiment:- A experiment or process for which the outcome cannot be
predicted with certainty.
● Sample space:- The entire possible set of outcomes of a random experiment is the
sample space(S) of that experiment.
● Event :- one or more outcome of an experiment. It is subset of sample space(S).
Probability Theory – Terminology
● Types of Event
Probability Theory – Terminology
● Probability Types
● To understand the types of probability take one example

● P(Young and Not Defaulting on the loan) = 10503/46687 = 0.225

● P(Senior Citizens and Defaulting on loan) = 120/46687 = 0.00257 ~ 0.003
Probability Theory – Terminology
● Converting the above table into probabilities

Types of probability
1) Join
2) Union
3) Marginal
4) Conditional
Probability Theory – Terminology
1. Joint Probability:
● Joint probability defines the “AND” relationship. Probability of (A and B).
● P(Yes and Young) = 0.077, P(No and Middle-Aged) = 0.586
Probability Theory – Terminology
2. Union Probability
● Union Probability defines the “OR” relationship. Probability of (A or B).
● P(Yes or Young) = P(Yes) + P (Young) – P(Yes and Young) = 0.184 + 0.302 – 0.077 =
0.409
Probability Theory – Terminology
3. Marginal Probability
● Probability describing a single attribute.
● P(No) = 0.816
● P(Senior Citizens) = 0.008

4. Conditional Probability
Conditional probability as the ratio of Joint probability to the Marginal probability.
P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B)

According to the above example

What is the probability that a person is middle-aged given he/she has not defaulted on the
loan?
Probability Theory – Terminology

P(Middle-Aged | No) = 0.586/0.816 = 0.72 (Order Matters)

Probability Theory – Terminology
Axioms of probability
● Axioms means rules in probability

Axioms 1

● The first rule states that the probability of an event is bigger than or equal to zero.
In fact, we can go further and say that the probability of an event is between 0 and 1
(inclusive).
● Let’s write this mathematically. If we say that the probability of an event is between 0
and 1 (inclusive) the we write these.
Axioms of probability
● When we say “event” we mean “something happens”. For example, we could be
talking about the weather tomorrow and the event would be outcome that it rains
tomorrow. So the probability of the event that it rains tomorrow could be 0.5.
Mathematically, we write this as,

● It is possible to group outcomes into an event and say that an event is the outcome
that it rains or snows tomorrow. In this way, an event is actually a collection of
outcomes.
Axioms of probability
Axioms 2
● This rule states that the probability of at least one of the possible outcomes
happening is 1 or if you add up the probability of all possible outcomes you will
get a probability of 1.
● Let’s take rolling a fair 6-sided die as an example. If I roll the die then one of six
outcomes is possible. The die will either land on a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. Therefore the
probability that I get at least one of those outcomes is 1. A probability equal to 1
means that we’re certain.
● Again, the second statement that I made holds. There are 1 of 6 possibilities and the
probability of rolling any one of them is 1/6. So if we add up the probabilities of
getting a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 then we get 1. See below
Axioms of probability
● P(die = 1) + P(die = 2) + P(die = 3) + P(die = 4) + P(die = 5) + P(die = 6) = 1/6 + 1/6
+ 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 6/6 = 1.
● Writing all of the terms in the sum is quite tedious, especially when you’ve got
hundreds of outcomes, so to shorten it mathematicians would write.

● So we can now write the statement “adding up the individual probabilities of all
possible outcomes will equal 1” mathematically as:
Axioms of probability

● There is a special term that we use instead of saying “all possible outcomes” — it’s
called the sample space. So the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 for a 6-sided die is in fact
the sample space. Mathematically the sample space is denoted with a Ω. So we can
also write the above mathematically as.
Axioms of probability
Axioms 3
● if two events are mutually exclusive (i.e. the two events can’t both occur at the same
time) then the probability of either of them happening is equal to the sum of the
individual (marginal) probabilities of them happening.
● Suppose we roll a fair 6-sided die and we want to know the probability of rolling a 5
or a 6. These events are mutually exclusive because I can’t roll a 5 and a 6 at the
same time. So the probability of rolling a 5 or a 6 is equal to the probability of rolling
a 5 plus the probability of rolling a 6: 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3.
Application of Simple Probability Rules
Applications of probability are found everywhere whether it is medical science, share
market trading, sports, gaming Industry and many more.
Probability is the ratio of favourable or expected outcomes to the total no of possible
outcomes.
If the we denote the expected outcome as n(E) and total possible outcomes as n(S). Then
probability of getting an outcome “A” from total sample space S is
P(A) = n(E)/n(S)
Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes denoted by S.
Event: A subset of the sample space.
Application of Simple Probability Rules
Assigning Probabilities
1. Classical Method: A Priori or Theoretical
Probability can be determined prior to conducting any experiment.

Example: Tossing of a fair die.

Here total possible outcomes = 6. And each digit appears only once in a die so when we
toss, only one digit can appear in top.

So P(E) = 1/6
Application of Simple Probability Rules
2. Empirical Method: A Posteriori or Frequentist
Probability can be determined post conducting a thought experiment.

Example: Tossing of a weighted die…well! Even a fair die.

The larger the number of experiments, the better the approximation. This is the most used
method in statistical inference.
A fair dice is thrown two times. What is the probability that the second toss results in a
value that is higher than the first toss?
Application of Simple Probability Rules
P(D2 > D1) = P( D1 = 1) P( D2 > 1) + P( D1 = 2) P( D2 > 2) + P( D1 = 3) P( D2 > 3) +
P( D1 = 4) P( D2 > 4) + P( D1 = 5) P( D2 > 5)+P( D1 = 6) P( D2 > 6)
P(D1 = 1) = P(D1 = 2) = P(D1 = 3) = P(D1 = 4) = P(D1 = 5) = P(D1 = 6) = ⅙
D2>1 = (Either of the digit 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) hence 5 outcomes possible for the event to be
success.
Hence P(D2 > 1) = 5/6.
Similar for D2 > 2 there are 4 success scenarios either of the digit from 3,4,5,6 Hence
P(D2>2) = 4/6. Similarly we can calculate other probabilities.
And now putting together
P(D2 > D1)= (1/6)*(5/6) + (1/6)*(4/6) + (1/6)*(3/6) + (1/6)*(2/6) + (1/6)*(1/6)
= (5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1) / 36

= 0.4167
Application of Simple Probability Rules
Mutually Exclusive events
● Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint if both of them
cannot occur at the same time. Means if A occur then B will not.
● For mutually exclusive event P(A and B) = 0.
Application of Simple Probability Rules
Area of the rectangle denotes sample space, and since Probability is associated with area, it
cannot be negative.
Example – Mutually Exclusive Event
Tossing a fair coin. At a time only head or tail will come. Hence these events P(Head) and
P(Tail) are mutually exclusive.
Note: If two events are not mutually exclusive then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and
B) as P(A and B) = 0 for mutually exclusive events.
Example – Not Mutually Exclusive Event
Event A – Customers who default on loans.
Event B – Customers who are High Net worth Individuals.
Here Event A and B are not mutually exclusive as both of them can occur together mean
customer who are high net worth can also be loan defaulters.
Application of Simple Probability Rules
Independent Events
Outcome of event A does not depend on outcome of event b and vice versa.
P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B)
Example: Independent Event
1. There are two customer A and B. Then probability of customer A defaulting on Loan is
not dependent on probability of customer B defaulting on Loan.
2. If the probability of getting an interview call is 0.7, what is the probability that the next
3 calls will be for interview?
P (InterviewCall1 and InterviewCall2 and InterviewCall3) = 0.7*0.7*0.7 = 0.347
You see probability reduced, and it seems fair enough as how many times in real life we
experience 3 back to back call for interview.
Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes Theorem is the extension of Conditional probability. Conditional probability helps
us to determine the probability of A given B, denoted by P(A|B). So Bayes’ theorem says if
we know P(A|B) then we can determine P(B|A), given that P(A) and P(B) are known to us.
Formula derivation:
From conditional probability, we know that P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B)
P(A and B) = P(B) * P(A|B) — — — — –[1]
Similarly
P(B|A) = P(B and A)/P(A) = P(A and B)/P(A) [In Joint Probability order does not matter]
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B|A) — — -[2]
From equation [1] and [2],
P(B) * P(A|B) = P(A) * P(B|A) P(A|B) = P(A) * P(B|A) / P(B)
Bayes’ Theorem
Which mean if we know P(A|B) then we can easily determine P(B|A) and vice versa.
Assuming we know the total probabilities P(A) and P(B).
Example 1
Technicians regularly make repairs when breakdowns occur on an automated production
line.
Janak, who services 20% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in 20.
Tarun, who services 60% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in 10.
Gautham, who services 15% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in 10
and Prasad, who services 5% of the breakdowns, makes an incomplete repair 1 time in 20.
For the next problem with the production line diagnosed as being due to an initial repair
that was incomplete, what is the probability that this initial repair was made by Janak?
Bayes’ Theorem
 Bayes’ Theorem
Example 3
SpamAssassin works by having users train the system. It looks for patterns in the words in
emails marked as spam by the user. For example, it may have learned that the word “free”
appears in 20% of the emails marked as spam. Assuming 0.1% of non-spam mail includes
the word “free” and 50% of all emails received by the user is spam, find the probability
that a mail is a spam if the word “free” appears in it.
Data Given: P(Free | Spam) = 0.20 P(Free | Non Spam) = 0.001
P(Spam) = 0.50 => P(Non Spam) = 0.50 P(Spam | Free) = ?
Using Bayes’ Theorem:
● P(Spam | Free) = P(Spam) * P(Free | Spam) / P(Free)
● P(Spam | Free) = 0.50 * 0.20 / (0.50 * 0.20 + 0.50 * 0.001)
● P(Spam | Free) = 0.995
Bayes’ Theorem
Random Variable
● Random variables are very important in statistics and probability and a must have if
any one is looking forward to understand probability distributions. Random Variables
many a times confused with traditional variables.
● In probability and statistics, random variable, random quantity or stochastic variable
is a variable whose possible values are the outcomes of a random phenomenon.
● Random variable is different from our traditional variable in terms of the value which
it takes. It’s a function which performs the mapping of the outcomes of a random
process to a numeric value.
● Random variables allows us to ask questions in mathematical way.
● If we flip 5 coins and want to answers questions like:
● 1. What is the probability of getting exactly 3 heads?
● 2. What is the probability of getting less than 4 heads?
● 3. What is the probability of getting more than 1 head?
 Random Variable
● Then our general way of writing would be:
● P(Probability of getting exactly 3 heads when we flip a coin 5 times)
● P(Probability of getting less than 4 heads when we flip a coin 5 times)
● P(Probability of getting more than 1 head when we flip a coin 5 times)
● But if we use random variables to represent above questions then we would write:
1. P(X=3)
2. P(X<4)
3. P(X>1)
As we can see above random variables makes our task much easier to quantify results of
any random process and apply math and perform further computation.
 Random Variable
Suppose we have a random process/experiment of flipping a coin. One of the two possible
outcomes could be either a head or a tail. So here we use X to denote random variable,
which represents the outcomes of the this random process.
Therefore we can write
X= 1, if the outcome is head
X= 0, if the outcome is tail
 Random Variable
How random variables are different from traditional variables used in algebra?
● Let’s say variables used in algebra as x, y, z. Here x can be the number of cell phones,
y = no of heads or z= no of students.
● A variable is nothing but an alphabetical character which represents an unknown
number. For Example: x + 5 = 10.
● x is the variable whose value is unknown and we are trying to find its value.
● After evaluating, x=5. A Random Variable is different from the variable in algebra as
it has whole set of values and it can take any of those randomly. Variable used in
algebra cannot have more than a single value at a time. If random variable
X={0,1,2,3}
● Then X could be 0, 1, 2 or 3 randomly where each of them might have a different
probability. We use capital letter for random variables to avoid confusion with
traditional variables.
Random Variable
● Random variables can be either discrete or continuous.
● If a variable can take countable number of distinct values then it’s a discrete random
variable. For example: In an experiment of tossing 2 coins, we need to find out the
possible number of heads.
● In this case, X is the random variable and the possible values taken by it is 0, 1 and 2
which is discrete. Therefore X= {0, 1, 2}
● A random variable is said to be continuous if it takes infinite number of values in an
interval.
● For example: Suppose the temperature in a city lies between 30⁰ and 45⁰ centigrade.
The temperature can take any value in the interval 30⁰ to 45⁰. So the temperature can
be either 30.13⁰ or 40.15⁰ or it may be in 30.13⁰ and 40.15⁰
Probability density function
● The probability distribution for a random variable describes how the probabilities are
distributed over the values of the random variable.
● For a discrete random variable, x, the probability distribution is defined by a
probability mass function, denoted by f(x).
● This function provides the probability for each value of the random variable.
● In the development of the probability function for a discrete random variable, two
conditions must be satisfied: (1) f(x) must be nonnegative for each value of the
random variable, and (2) the sum of the probabilities for each value of the random
variable must equal one.
Probability density function
● A continuous random variable may assume any value in an interval on the real
number line or in a collection of intervals.
● Since there is an infinite number of values in any interval, it is not meaningful to talk
about the probability that the random variable will take on a specific value; instead,
the probability that a continuous random variable will lie within a given interval is
considered. In the continuous case, the counterpart of the probability mass function is
the probability density function, also denoted by f(x).
● For a continuous random variable, the probability density function provides the height
or value of the function at any particular value of x; it does not directly give the
probability of the random variable taking on a specific value.
● However, the area under the graph of f(x) corresponding to some interval, obtained by
computing the integral of f(x) over that interval, provides the probability that the
variable will take on a value within that interval.
Probability density function
● In the discrete case the weights are given by the probability mass function, and in the
continuous case the weights are given by the probability density function.
● The formulas for computing the expected values of discrete and continuous random
variables are given by equations 2 and 3, respectively.
● E(x) = Σxf(x) (2)
● E(x) = ∫xf(x)dx (3)
Cumulative Distribution function
● By definition, the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of a random variable X is
the probability that the random variable X will take a value less than or equal to x.
● FX(x) = P(X <= x)
● For the case of a continuous distribution, the cumulative distribution function gives
the area under the probability density function graph of the random variable X from
minus infinity to x.
● Hence, probability of X lying in the range (a,b] can be calculated as:
● P(a < X <= b) = FX(b) – FX(a)
● Cumulative density function is a nondecreasing and right-continuous function.
Binomial Distribution
● Consider an experiment in which only two outcomes are possible — success and
failure. Let p be the probability of success in each experimental trial, and hence 1-p is
the probability of failure each time. Let the experiment be performed n times.
● Binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution of the number of successes
(each success has a probability p) in a sequence of n independent experimental trials,
where the outcome of each experimental trial can be a success or failure.
● A binomial experiment has four properties:
(1) it consists of a sequence of n identical trials;
(2) two outcomes, success or failure, are possible on each trial;
(3) the probability of success on any trial, denoted p, does not change from trial to
trial;
(4) the trials are independent
Binomial Distribution

● To compute the probability of finding exactly 2 owners that have had electrical
system problems out of a group of 10 owners, the binomial probability mass function
can be used by setting n = 10, x = 2, and p = 0.1, q=(1-p) in above equation; for this
case, the probability is 0.1937.
n
● c2 = n!/(n-x)!x! Here n=10 , x=2 (10!/(10-2)!2!=10!/8!*2!=10*9/2=45)
● p(2) = 45 * (0.1)2*(1-0.1)10-2
● = 45*0.01*0.4304672
= 0.1937
Poisson Distribution
● Poisson distribution is used to calculate the number of times an event occurs in a
continuous time interval.
● The Poisson probability distribution is often used as a model of the number of arrivals
at a facility within a given period of time.

e = Euler’s constant, ie. 2.718

λ = Expected value of the random variable
x = Number of success of the event
 Poisson Distribution
The average number of homes sold by the Acme Realty company is 2 homes per day. What
is the probability that exactly 3 homes will be sold tomorrow?

Solution: This is a Poisson experiment in which we know the following:

● μ = 2; since 2 homes are sold per day, on average.
● x = 3; since we want to find the likelihood that 3 homes will be sold tomorrow.
● e = 2.71828; since e is a constant equal to approximately 2.71828.
We plug these values into the Poisson formula as follows:
P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!
P(3; 2) = (2.71828-2) (23) / 3!
P(3; 2) = (0.13534) (8) / 6
P(3; 2) = 0.180
Thus, the probability of selling 3 homes tomorrow is 0.180 .
 Poisson Distribution
● Suppose the average number of lions seen on a 1-day safari is 5. What is the
probability that tourists will see fewer than four lions on the next 1-day safari?

Solution: This is a Poisson experiment in which we know the following:

● μ = 5; since 5 lions are seen per safari, on average.
● x = 0, 1, 2, or 3; since we want to find the likelihood that tourists will see fewer than
4 lions; that is, we want the probability that they will see 0, 1, 2, or 3 lions.
● e = 2.71828; since e is a constant equal to approximately 2.71828.
● To solve this problem, we need to find the probability that tourists will see 0, 1, 2, or
3 lions.
● Thus, we need to calculate the sum of four probabilities: P(0; 5) + P(1; 5) + P(2; 5) +
P(3; 5).
Poisson Distribution
● To compute this sum, we use the Poisson formula:
P(x < 3, 5) = P(0; 5) + P(1; 5) + P(2; 5) + P(3; 5)
P(x < 3, 5) = [ (e-5)(50) / 0! ] + [ (e-5)(51) / 1! ] + [ (e-5)(52) / 2! ] + [ (e-5)(53) / 3! ]
P(x < 3, 5) = [ (0.006738)(1) / 1 ] + [ (0.006738)(5) / 1 ] + [ (0.006738)(25) / 2 ] + [
(0.006738)(125) / 6 ]
P(x < 3, 5) = [ 0.0067 ] + [ 0.03369 ] + [ 0.084224 ] + [ 0.140375 ]
P(x < 3, 5) = 0.2650

● Thus, the probability of seeing at no more than 3 lions is 0.2650.

Geometric Distribution
The geometric distribution is a special case of the negative binomial distribution. It deals
with the number of trials required for a single success. Thus, the geometric distribution is a
negative binomial distribution where the number of successes (r) is equal to 1.
Formula
P(X=x)=p×qx−1
● p = probability of success for single trial.
● q = probability of failure for a single trial (1-p)
● x = the number of failures before a success.
● P(X−x) = Probability of x successes in n trials.
Geometric Distribution
Problem Statement:
In an amusement fair, a competitor is entitled for a prize if he throws a ring on a peg from
a certain distance. It is observed that only 30% of the competitors are able to do this. If
someone is given 5 chances, what is the probability of his winning the prize when he has
already missed 4 chances?
Solution: If someone has already missed four chances and has to win in the fifth chance,
then it is a probability experiment of getting the first success in 5 trials. The problem
statement also suggests the probability distribution to be geometric. The probability of
success is given by the geometric distribution formula: P(X=x)=p×qx−1
Where − p=30%=0.3 p=30%=0.3 x=5 x=5 = the number of failures before a success.
Therefore, the required probability:P(X=5)= 0.3×(1−0.3) 5−1,
= 0.3×(0.7)4,≈0.072≈7.2%
Uniform Distribution
The continuous uniform distribution is the probability distribution of random number
selection from the continuous interval between a and b. Its density function is defined by
the following. Here is a graph of the continuous uniform distribution with a = 1, b = 3.
{ 1/(b−a),0, when a≤x≤b when x<a or x>b
Example:- Problem Statement:
Suppose you are leading a test and present an inquiry on the crowd of 20 contenders. The
time permitted to answer the inquiry is 30 seconds. What number of persons is prone to
react inside of 5 seconds? (Regularly, the contenders are required to click a catch of the
right decision and the champ is picked on the premise of first snap).
Uniform Distribution
Solution: Step 1: The interval of the probability distribution in seconds is [0, 30].
⇒ The probability density is = 1/30-0=1/30.
Step 2: The requirement is how many will respond in 5 seconds. That is, the sub interval
of the successful event is [0, 5]. Now the probability P (x < 5) is the proportion of the
widths of these two interval.
⇒ 5/30=1/6.
Subsequent to there are 20 contenders, the quantity of contenders prone to react in 5
seconds is (1/6) (20) =3.
Exponential Distribution
Exponential distribution or negative exponential distribution represents a probability
distribution to describe the time between events in a Poisson process. In Poisson process
events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate. Exponential
distribution is a particular case of the gamma distribution.
Exponential Distribution
Examples
Example:-1
A coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that it lands on heads exactly one
time?
Example 2
There is a bag full of coloured balls, red, blue, green and orange. Balls are picked out and
replaced. John did this 1000 times and obtained the following results:
Number of blue balls picked out: 300
Number of red balls: 200
Number of green balls: 450
Number of orange balls: 50
a) What is the probability of picking a green ball?
b) If there are 100 balls in the bag, how many of them are likely to be green?
Examples
Example 4 :
Consider the example of finding the probability of selecting a black card or a 6 from a
deck of 52 cards.

Example-5
The probability that Bill will graduate from college is 0.80. What is the probability that
Bill will not graduate from college?

Example:-6

An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are drawn without
replacement from the urn. What is the probability that both of the marbles are black?
Examples
Example:-7
A student goes to the library. The probability that she checks out
(a) a work of fiction is 0.40, (b) a work of non-fiction is 0.30, and (c) both fiction and
non-fiction is 0.20.
What is the probability that the student checks out a work of fiction, non-fiction, or both?
Example:-8
An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are drawn with
replacement from the urn. What is the probability that both of the marbles are black?
Example:-9
A card is drawn randomly from a deck of ordinary playing cards. You win $10 if the card
is a spade or an ace. What is the probability that you will win the game?
Examples
Example 10
Which of the following is a discrete random variable?
I. The average height of a randomly selected group of boys.
II. The annual number of sweepstakes winners from New York City.
III. The number of presidential elections in the 20th century.
(A) I only
(B) II only
(C) III only
(D) I and II
(E) II and III
Examples
Example:-11
The number of adults living in homes on a randomly selected city block is described by the
following probability distribution

What is the probability that 4 or more adults reside at a randomly selected home?
Examples
Example 12
In a recent little league softball game, each player went to bat 4 times. The number of hits
made by each player is described by the following probability distribution.

a) What is the mean of the probability distribution?

b) Find out the probability distribution If median is 2
Examples

Example 13

The number of adults living in homes on a randomly selected city block is described by the
following probability distribution.

a) Find Expected Value

b) Find variance
c) Find Standard deviation
Examples
Example 14
The table below shows the joint probability distribution between two random variables - X
and Y. (In a joint probability distribution table, numbers in the cells of the table represent
the probability that particular values of X and Y occur together.)

The solution requires three computations: (1) find the mean (expected value) of X, (2)
find the mean (expected value) of Y, and (3) find the sum of the means.
Examples

Problem 15

Suppose X and Y are independent random variables. The variance of X is equal to 16; and
the variance of Y is equal to 9. Let Z = X - Y.

What is the standard deviation of Z?

Examples

Example 16
Examples

Example 17
Examples
Example 18
Suppose scores on an IQ test are normally distributed. If the test has a mean of 100
and a standard deviation of 10, P( X < 110 ) is 0.84 and P( X < 90 ) is [Link] is
the probability that a person who takes the test will score between 90 and 110?
Example 19
Molly earned a score of 940 on a national achievement test. The mean test score was
850 with a standard deviation of 100. What proportion of students had a higher score
than Molly? (Assume that test scores are normally distributed.)
Examples
Example 20
Acme Corporation manufactures light bulbs. The CEO claims that an average Acme
light bulb lasts 300 days. A researcher randomly selects 15 bulbs for testing. The
sampled bulbs last an average of 290 days, with a standard deviation of 50 days. If the
CEO's claim were true, what is the probability that 15 randomly selected bulbs would
have an average life of no more than 290 days?(T-Distribution)
Example 21
The Acme Battery Company has developed a new cell phone battery. On average, the
battery lasts 60 minutes on a single charge. The standard deviation is 4 minutes.
Suppose the manufacturing department runs a quality control test. They randomly
select 7 batteries. The standard deviation of the selected batteries is 6 minutes. What
would be the chi-square statistic represented by this test?(Chi-Distribution)
Examples
Example 22
Assume that a school district has 10,000 6th graders. In this district, the average
weight of a 6th grader is 80 pounds, with a standard deviation of 20 pounds. Suppose
you draw a random sample of 50 students. What is the probability that the average
weight of a sampled student will be less than 75 pounds?(normal distribution in
central limit)