CHAPTER 6 REVIEWER
Population Growth and Economic Development:
Causes, Consequences, and Controversies
INTRO Overview
This chapter explores the connection between population growth and economic development. The central
question is not simply how many people there are, but whether rapid population growth helps or hinders a
country's development goals — including income, health, education, and freedom to choose.
• World population: 7.6B (2017) projected 9.8B (2050) 11.2B (2100)
• Almost all growth is occurring in developing countries
• Problem is not just numbers — it is human welfare, capability, and freedom
• Key topics: demographic trends, demographic transition, Malthusian model, household fertility theory,
policy options
6.1 Population Growth & Quality of Life
Population growth is a development problem — not merely a numbers problem. High fertility is deeply tied to
poverty. The chapter asks: how does population growth affect developing countries' chances of achieving
development for current and future generations?
• 83 million people added to the world each year — almost entirely in developing countries
• Development = improved income + health + education + self-esteem + freedom to choose
• Understanding the poverty-fertility link is central to effective policy
6.2 Population Growth: Past, Present, and Future
6.2.1 — World Population Growth Throughout History
For most of human history, population grew almost imperceptibly. The explosive growth of the 20th century
was driven not by rising birth rates but by falling death rates.
• 8000 BCE: ~5 million people on Earth
• Year 1 to 1750: tripled slowly to ~728 million
• 1750–1950: added 1.8 billion. Then 1950–1990: doubled again to 5.3 billion
• Main cause of acceleration: modern medicine, better nutrition, public health programs reducing death
rates
• By 2050: developing countries will hold nearly 7/8 of world population
Key Stat — Doubling Time
Before 1650: took ~36,000 years for population to double. Today at current growth rates: ~58 years.
Formula: Doubling Time = 70 ÷ growth rate (%)
● World Population Growth Throughout History: For most of human history, population growth was near zero. It
reached 1 billion around 1800 and has exploded since, reaching 7.7 billion by 2019.
● Structure of the World's Population: More than three-quarters of the world's population lives in developing
countries.
● Key Definitions in this Section:
o Doubling Time: The period that a given population or other quantity takes to increase by its present size.
o Rate of Population Increase: The growth rate of a population, calculated as the natural increase after
adjusting for immigration and emigration.
o Natural Increase: The difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a given population.
o Net International Migration: The excess of persons migrating into a country over those who emigrate from
that country.
o Crude Birth Rate (or Birth Rate): The number of children born alive each year per 1,000 population.
o Death Rate: The number of deaths each year per 1,000 population.
o Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The number of children that would be born to a woman if she lived to the end of
her childbearing years and bore children according to prevailing age-specific fertility rates.
o Life Expectancy at Birth: The number of years a newborn child would live if subjected to the mortality risks
prevailing at the time of birth.
o Under-5 Mortality Rate: Deaths among children between birth and 5 years of age per 1,000 live births.
o Youth Dependency Ratio: The proportion of young people under age 15 to the working population aged 15
to 64.
o Hidden Momentum of Population Growth: The phenomenon whereby population continues to increase even
after a fall in birth rates because the large existing youthful population expands the population’s base of
potential parents.
o Population Pyramid: A graphic depiction of the age structure of the population, with age cohorts plotted on
the vertical axis.
o Demographic Dividend: The high economic growth achievable when the working-age population share is
significantly greater than the non-working-age population share.
6.2.2 — Structure of the World's Population
Population is deeply unequal — by region, age, fertility, and mortality. Africa's share is rising fastest.
• 3/4 of humanity lives in developing countries
• Africa's global share: 15% (2010) projected 22% (2050)
• Many countries now near replacement fertility (Bangladesh, Mexico, Jamaica). Sub-Saharan Africa
still very high.
• Death rates fell 30–50% in Asia and Latin America, 30%+ in Africa due to vaccines, sanitation,
nutrition
• Life expectancy: Sub-Saharan Africa = 61 yrs vs. high-income countries = ~81 yrs
• Under-5 mortality has dropped dramatically worldwide, but Sub-Saharan Africa still lags
Key Term: Youth Dependency Ratio
The ratio of people under 15 to working-age adults (15–64). Higher in developing countries. Sub-
Saharan Africa: only 54% of population is working-age vs. ~65% in the US. Workers must support
proportionally more children.
Geographic Distribution
• 2010: ~2/3 of world population in developing countries
• 2050 (projected): ~7/8 of world population in developing countries
• Least-developed countries: population will grow 10x (200 million 2 billion)
• Developed countries: very little growth expected through 2050
Fertility and Mortality Trends
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Number of children a woman would bear over her lifetime at current
age-specific rates
Crude Birth Rate Live births per 1,000 population per year
Death Rate Deaths per 1,000 population per year
Natural Increase Difference between birth rate and death rate
• Fertility peaked globally ~1970, then began falling in many countries
• Examples: Bangladesh 72.1, Colombia 5.31.8, Mexico 4.92.2 (1970–2017)
• Africa: fertility falling more slowly than expected; some disruption from debt austerity and conflict
affecting female education
• Death rates fell 50% in parts of Asia & Latin America; over 30% in Africa & Middle East
• Life expectancy gap: developed (~81 yrs) vs sub-Saharan Africa (~61 yrs)
Age Structure and Dependency Burdens
• Developing countries have very young populations — children under 15 = 42% in low-income
countries
• High youth dependency ratio = workforce must support many more children per worker
📌 Youth Dependency Ratio: Proportion of people under age 15 to working-age population (15–
64)
📌 Demographic Dividend: Economic growth potential when working-age population share is large
relative to non-working population
• High-income countries face opposite problem: aging populations with large elderly dependency
burdens
• China, several Asian countries: shrinking workforce before reaching high income = 'getting old before
getting rich'
6.2.3 — Hidden Momentum of Population Growth
Even after birth rates fall, populations continue growing for decades. This is the hidden momentum —
because large young cohorts eventually become parents.
• Reason 1: Birth rates cannot change overnight — social and cultural forces take generations
• Reason 2: Large cohorts of young people are already "locked in" as future parents — even if they
have fewer children, total births remain high
• Population pyramids: wide base = many young people = built-in future growth
• This momentum is a major reason population will keep rising through mid-century
Demographic Dividend
When the working-age share of population is large (fewer young dependents, not yet many elderly),
countries can achieve rapid economic growth. China benefited from this for ~3 decades. Sub-
Saharan Africa has this opportunity — but only if employment grows to match.
6.3 The Demographic Transition
The demographic transition is the well-known theory explaining how all developed nations moved from high
birth+death rates, through a phase of rapid growth, to stable low growth. It has three stages.
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
Characteristic
s High births + high deaths stable/slow
Deathsgrowth
fall (medicine), births stay high
Births
rapid
fallgrowth
to match deaths stable, low growth
Where Pre-industrial era / least- Sub-Saharan Africa today Europe, Japan, S. Korea,
developed today parts of Latin America
• Replacement fertility: ~2.1 in developed countries; can be >3 where child mortality is high
•
Birth rates in developing countries were historically higher than pre-industrial Europe Stage 2 was more extreme
📌 Demographic Transition:
The shift from high birth and death rates rapid growth (high births, low deaths) stable low
Three stages, based on the experience of today's developed nations:
Stage Birth Rate Death Rate Pop. Growth Description
Stage 1 High High Very slow Pre-industrial. Famine, disease
control population.
Stage 2 High Falling Rapid rise Modernization lowers death
rate; births still high.
Stage 3 Falling Low Slowing Development lowers birth rates;
population stabilizes.
📌 Replacement Fertility: Number of births per woman that results in stable population levels
(~2.05–2.1 in developed countries; can be over 3 in high-mortality settings)
• In Western Europe: Stage 2 began early 1800s; Stage 3 began late 1800s; peak growth never
exceeded 1%/year
•
In developing countries: Stage 2 happened faster (imported medicine); birth rates were already higher peak growth rates exc
6.4 Causes of High Fertility: Models & Theories, The Malthusian and Household
Models
6.4.1 — The Malthusian Population Trap
Thomas Malthus (1798) argued population grows geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8...) while food grows arithmetically
(1, 2, 3, 4...) — inevitably leading to poverty and subsistence-level living.
• At very low income: malnutrition + disease keep population low
• As income rises: death rates fall, population grows fast (outpacing income growth)
• Result: per capita income is pulled back down to subsistence (Point S = stable low equilibrium)
• Escape requires crossing threshold T where income growth > population growth consistently
• Technological or social progress can shift the curves and eliminate the trap entirely
📌 Microeconomic Theory of Fertility: Children are treated like economic goods — families
rationally weigh costs and benefits to decide family size
Formula: Cd = f(Y, Pc, Px, tx)
Cd Demand for surviving children
Y (income) More children demanded (if children are 'normal goods')
Pc (cost of children) Fewer children demanded
More children demanded (substitution)
Px (price of other goods)
Fewer children demanded
tx (taste for other goods)
• Rising female employment higher opportunity cost of raising children fewer children
• Better education for women higher wages fewer children
•
Higher income + higher child cost combined smaller families with better-quality (more educated) children
💡 Key insight: Households don't act in a unified way — husbands and wives may disagree on
family size. Bargaining models show that increasing women's bargaining power tends to lower
fertility.
6.4.2 — Criticisms of the Malthusian Model
• Ignores technological progress — history shows rising returns, not just diminishing ones
• No empirical support for the assumed income-population growth correlation in modern data
• Wrong variable: household income matters more than national per capita income
• Why still studied: has historical validity, helps understand poverty traps, underlines importance of tech
& women's rights
6.4.3 — Microeconomic Household Theory of Fertility
Economists treat children as economic goods — parents weigh costs vs. benefits when deciding family size
(demand-based model).
The Core Formula
Cd = f(Y, Pc, Px, tx) — Demand for children depends on: Household income (Y), Net price of
children — costs minus benefits (Pc), Prices of other goods (Px), Preferences/tastes for goods vs.
children (tx).
• Higher household income more children (if children are 'normal goods')
• Higher cost of children fewer children demanded (substitution effect)
• Key cost: opportunity cost of the mother's time (income foregone to raise children)
• Bargaining model: husbands and wives often disagree on family size; women's bargaining power
matters
6.4.4 — Demand for Children in Developing Countries
• Children = investment goods: provide child labor + old-age financial support for parents
• First 1–2 children = consumer goods (emotional/cultural desire). Additional children = economic
investment decision
• Son preference: driven by old-age security motives, dowry systems, and sons' perceived earning
potential
• Empirical evidence: female education + employment significantly lower fertility
•
Lower child mortality fewer births needed to reach desired number of surviving children
6.4.5 — Implications: What Reduces Fertility
Birth rates fall most when the poor — especially women — benefit from development. Six key changes:
• 1. Increased education of women improved social status
• 2. More female employment outside the home higher opportunity cost of childbearing
• 3. Rising household income, especially for poor families
• 4. Lower infant mortality fewer births needed to achieve desired surviving children
• 5. Old-age social security reduces economic motive for large families
• 6. Better schooling options parents substitute quality for quantity of children
6.5 Consequences of High Fertility: Conflicting Views
6.5.1 — Arguments That Population Growth Is NOT a Problem
• Underdevelopment is the real problem — fix poverty and population regulates itself
• Developed countries overconsume — 25% of world pop uses ~80% of resources; they should cut
back first
• Distribution, not numbers — some regions are underpopulated relative to available land
• Women's subordination drives high fertility — empower women and births will fall naturally
• Neo-Marxist view: rich-country population campaigns are attempts to keep developing nations weak
• Revisionist view: free markets + human ingenuity (Julian Simon: 'the ultimate resource') will solve
scarcity
6.5.2 — Arguments That Population Growth IS a Problem
• Population-poverty cycle: poverty large families more poverty (vicious circle)
• Solow model: higher population growth forces capital to grow faster just to keep per capita income
stable
• Extremist argument: population growth is root cause of hunger, poverty, environmental destruction
Seven empirically identified negative consequences:
• 1. Economic Growth — lowers per capita income in poor, agriculture-dependent countries
• 2. Poverty & Inequality — hurts the poor most; they bear the brunt of cuts to services and
environmental damage
• 3. Education — less money per child; nationally, educational quality drops
• 4. Health — closely spaced births lower birth weight; higher child and maternal mortality
• 5. Food — feeding more people demands faster technological adoption; best lands already cultivated
• 6. Environment — deforestation, soil erosion, water depletion, urban congestion
• 7. International Migration — excess job seekers push emigration; costs also fall on receiving countries
Three main positions:
• Extremist: population is the primary cause of poverty, malnutrition, and environmental disaster
• Theoretical (Population–Poverty Cycle): rapid population growth intensifies poverty; reduces savings;
draws down government resources; transmits poverty to future generations
📌 Population–Poverty Cycle:
Poverty large families more population growth less savings slower growth more pover
Seven empirically identified negative consequences of rapid population growth:
1. Economic Growth Lowers per capita income growth, especially in poor, agricultural
countries
2. Poverty & Inequality Poor bear the greatest burden: landlessness, cuts to services,
environmental harm
3. Education Large families limit children's education; national budgets spread
more thinly
4. Health High fertility harms mothers; closely spaced births raise child
mortality
5. Food More people require faster tech adoption; best land already used
6. Environment Deforestation, soil erosion, water pollution, air pollution, urban
congestion
7. International Migration Excess job-seekers push emigration; costs partly borne by receiving
countries
6.5.3 — The Consensus Position (Robert Cassen)
💡 "The consequences of rapid population growth should be neither exaggerated nor minimised."
• Population growth is NOT the primary cause of poverty — but it does intensify existing problems
• It's not just about numbers — global resource distribution and quality of life matter too
• Population momentum means continued growth for decades regardless of current policy choices
6.6 Policy Approaches
6.6.1 — What Developing Countries Can Do
Long-run: tackle poverty, inequality, female education, employment, infant mortality, social security.
6.6.1 What Developing Countries Can Do
Long-run development policies (essential for ultimate stabilization):
• Eliminate absolute poverty
• Reduce income inequalities
• Expand education, especially for women
• Create jobs for men and women
• Bring preventive medicine, clean water, and sanitation to rural and urban poor
• Improve maternal and child nutrition and health lower infant mortality
Five short-run policies:
• 1. Persuade through media and education — promote smaller family norms
• 2. Enhance family-planning programmes — provide contraceptives and reproductive health services
• 3. Manipulates Economic incentives/disincentives — tax breaks for small families, fees for large ones,
old-age pension systems
• 4. Coercion — legal penalties (last resort; India's forced sterilization caused political backlash)
• 5. Raise status of women — education + employment + delayed marriage = fewer children
Cairo 1994 International Conference
Global consensus: women's empowerment and reproductive choice are essential for sustainable
development. Population programmes are most effective when women's status improves
simultaneously.
6.6.2 — What Developed Countries Can Do
• Reduce excessive resource consumption — the US (4.5% of world pop) uses ~20% of world energy
• Liberalize immigration — can relieve population pressure in developing nations
• Make genuine development commitments, not just population control demands
6.6.3 — How Developed Countries Can Help Developing Countries
• Expand financial assistance, especially to sub-Saharan Africa
• Improve trade relations: tariff-free market access, better commodity pricing
• Fund contraceptive research, especially barrier methods for HIV context
• Finance family-planning programmes and public education in developing nations
6.6.4 — Policy for Countries Facing Population Decline
A growing number of middle-income countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Thailand) face below-replacement
fertility and aging populations — "getting old before getting rich." Five policy options:
• 1. Allow immigration — ideally with path to citizenship or guest worker programs
• 2. Retrain workers for longer, more productive careers
• 3. Move up the value chain — raise worker productivity
• 4. Attract foreign investment that boosts productivity and incomes
• 5. Pro-natal incentives (last resort) — tax breaks for more children; quality childcare has best dual
benefit
CASE STUDY "Twins" Growing Apart: Burundi & Rwanda
Burundi and Rwanda share nearly identical geography, ethnicity, size, and colonial history — yet are on very
different development paths, largely because of differences in population policy and governance.
Indicator Burundi Rwanda
HDI (2018) .417 (5th lowest) .524
Poverty rate 74.7% 38.1%
Fertility (2016) 5.7 births/woman 3.9 births/woman
Pop. growth (2000–17) 3.1% 2.5%
Life expectancy 53 years 63 years
Health budget share 8% 24%
Contraceptive use (2010) Low 52% of married women
• Rwanda declared family planning a national priority after recovering from the 1994 genocide
• Programme: free contraceptives, full range of methods, strong political leadership, trained
professionals
• Contraceptive use rose from 17% (2005) to 52% (2010) in just 5 years
• Women's empowerment was key: Rwanda let women own property; women legislators led family
planning push
•
Burundi still mired in conflict and poverty — fertility falling slowly (6.4 5.5, 2010–2017) without economic growth
• Core lesson: political commitment + comprehensive services + women's empowerment = effective
population policy
TERMS Key Concepts to Know
Crude Birth Rate Number of live births per 1,000 population per year.
Death Rate Number of deaths per 1,000 population per year.
Total Fertility Rate Average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime at
(TFR) current age-specific fertility rates.
Natural Increase Difference between birth rate and death rate (births deaths).
Doubling Time Time it takes a population to double in size. Formula: 70 ÷ growth rate
(%).
Replacement Fertility Birth rate that keeps population stable. ~2.1 in developed countries; can
be >3 where child mortality is high.
Youth Dependency Ratio of people under 15 to working-age population (15–64). Higher in
Ratio developing countries.
Hidden Momentum Population continues growing even after birth rates fall — because large
young cohorts become the next parents.
Population Pyramid Graph of age and sex distribution. Wide base = young/growing
population. Narrow base = aging/declining.
Demographic
Shift from high birth+death rates rapid growth stable low growth, as countries develop.
Transition
Demographic Economic growth boost when working-age population share is large
Dividend relative to dependents.
Malthusian Population
Population grows geometrically; food grows arithmetically poverty trap at subsistence level.
Trap
Microeconomic Family size is a rational economic decision based on the costs and
Theory of Fertility benefits of having children.
Population-Poverty Poverty causes large families; large families cause more poverty — a self-
Cycle reinforcing trap.
Family-Planning Public programmes providing education and contraceptive technology to
Programmes help regulate family size.
Reproductive Choice Women's right to decide — on equal terms with partners — how many
children to have and when.
Life Expectancy at Expected years a newborn will live under current mortality conditions.
Birth
Under-5 Mortality Rate Deaths of children under 5 per 1,000 live births.
Net International Excess of persons entering a country over those leaving.
Migration
CASE STUDY 6 — 'Twins' Growing Apart: Burundi and Rwanda
Background: Two 'Country Twins'
Similarities Same land area, nearly same population (~11–12 million), same
geography (hilly, landlocked), same ethnic mix (~84% Hutu / 15%
Tutsi), same colonial history (German then Belgian), both
independent in 1962
Divergence After 1993, dramatically different development paths
Rwanda HDI (2018) .524 — far above
Burundi HDI (2018) .417 — 5th lowest in the world
Burundi poverty ~74.7% below $1.90/day; near-zero growth 2014–2018
Fertility Differences
•
1960 Rwanda: 8.2 births/woman (highest in world) 2016: 3.9 births/woman (fell by more than half)
• 1960 Burundi: 7.5 births/woman 2016: 5.7 (fell by only one quarter)
• Result: Burundi's fertility rate is now 46% higher than Rwanda's
• Population growth 2000–2017: Burundi = 3.1%/year vs Rwanda = 2.5%/year
Rwanda's Success Factors
• President Kagame declared family planning a 'national priority' after genocide recovery
• 2003 National Population Strategy launched with specific fertility targets
• Free contraceptives in all government health facilities
• Married women using modern contraceptives: 17% (2005) 52% (2010) in just 5 years
• Women's rights reforms: allowed to own property; strong legislative representation
• State-led developmental strategy (compared to South Korea): crop diversification, agricultural
exports, poverty reduction
📋 Key lesson from Rwanda: A strong family planning programme backed by political leadership can
remove cultural and socioeconomic barriers and drive mass contraceptive uptake — even in a low-
income country.
China Policy Box (Box 6.3)
• 1980: One-child policy implemented; stringent enforcement from 1982
• Effects: ~250 million fewer births; fertility fell to ~1.6 by 2017
• Unintended consequences: gender imbalance ('missing women'), surge in savings, property bubbles
• 2016: Two-child policy; 2019: discussion of eliminating all restrictions + birth incentives
• China now faces: shrinking workforce, ageing population, population decline expected by late 2020s
KEY TERMS QUICK REFERENCE
Crude Birth Rate Live births per 1,000 population per year
Death Rate Deaths per 1,000 population per year
Natural Increase Birth rate minus death rate
Rate of Population Increase Natural increase adjusted for net migration
Net International Migration Arrivals minus departures across borders
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Expected births per woman over her lifetime at current rates
Replacement Fertility TFR needed for stable population (~2.05–2.1 in developed countries)
Under-5 Mortality Rate Deaths of children under 5 per 1,000 live births
Life Expectancy at Birth Expected years of life for a newborn given current mortality rates
Youth Dependency Ratio Share of under-15s relative to working-age population (15–64)
Hidden Momentum Continued population growth after birth rate falls, due to young age
structure
Population Pyramid Chart showing population distribution by age and sex
Demographic Transition
Shift from high birth/death rates rapid growth stable low rates
Demographic Dividend Economic growth period when working-age share peaks in
demographic transition
Doubling Time
Years for a population to double in size ( 70 ÷ growth rate %)
Malthusian Population Trap Low-level equilibrium where population growth cancels income
growth
Microeconomic Theory of Children as economic goods; family size decided by cost-benefit
Fertility analysis
Population–Poverty Cycle Mutual reinforcement of poverty and high fertility
Family-Planning Public programmes helping people plan and regulate family size
Programmes
Reproductive Choice Women's equal right to determine desired family size and method