KNOWLEDGE INNOVATION EXCELLENCE

LILONGWE UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES

OPEN AND DISTANCE LEARNING (ODL)

DEMORAPHY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

PROGRAMME NAME: BSC IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS

COURSE CODE: AAE 222

MODULE WRITERS

INNOCENT PANGAPANGA-PHIRI
LUMBANI BANDA
Page 1 of 62
Table of Contents
UNIT1: NATURE AND SCOPE OF DEMOGRAPHY....................................................................3
UNIT 2: TOOLS OF DEMOGRAPHY.............................................................................................8
UNIT3: POPULATION CHANGE..................................................................................................11
UNIT 4: POPULATION GROWTH THEORIES.........................................................................22
UNIT 5: ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS................................................................................32
UNIT 6: SELECTED ISSUES IN POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT................................39
UNIT 7: DEVELOPMENT INDICES............................................................................................51

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UNIT1: NATURE AND SCOPE OF DEMOGRAPHY

1.0 Introduction

The word ”demography” was coined by Achilles Guillard in 1855 and is derived from two
Greek words: Demas - People and Grapho - to draw or write. Thus crudely demography
means to write or draw about people. However, currently different scholars from different
fields have defined demography in their own way to suit the interest and needs of particular
fields. Some fields have adopted a wider viewpoint of the subject while other fields have
adopted a narrow viewpoint; nevertheless the key elements in both viewpoints are similar. In
this unit we introduce demography from an economist stand point. We introduce and explain
key terms and concepts of demography. This unit forms the basis of the rest of the units in the
module hence grasping the concepts and definitions explained in this unit is of paramount
importance to understanding other units.

Learning outcomes
After studying this unit students should be able to:
a) Explain the basic characteristics of a population and how these characteristics can
affect social and economic situations of a particular country
b) Explain and interpret population pyramids
c) Explain the role of knowledge of age and sex composition to the government and
different sectors of the economy

Key terms
Population, age group, age structure, sex structure, sex ratio

1.1 Definitions and concepts in demography

Demography is the study of not only the size and growth of population but also of their
structure (or composition).The most two important dimensions of population structure are
undoubtedly age and sex.
• Age is a biological characteristic and it is constantly changing.
• Sex is also biological in nature, but does not change (except by human intervention in
rare cases).
It is the changing in nature of age that creates such a dynamic process because young people
are treated differently from older people and different kinds of behavior are expected of
people as they move through different ages. E.g. at very young age and very old age, people
are more dependent on others for survival, and so the proportions of people at these ages will
influence how society works.

1.2 Age and Sex composition

Age and sex are the most basic characteristics of a population. Every population has a
different age and sex composition—the number and proportion of males and females in each
age group—and this structure can have considerable impact on the population’s social and
economic situation, both present and future. Some populations are relatively young, that is,
they have a large proportion of people in the younger age groups. The high-fertility countries

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of Africa with large proportions of young adults and children are examples. Other
populations are relatively old, such as many countries in Europe. These two types of
populations have markedly different age compositions; as a consequence, they also have
different proportions of the population in the labour force or in school, as well as different
medical needs, consumer preferences, and even crime patterns. A population’s age structure
has a great deal to do with how that population lives. Developing countries have relatively
young populations while most developed countries have old or “aging” populations. In many
developing countries, 40 percent or more of the population is under age 15, while 4 percent is
65 or older. On the other hand, in all but a few developed countries, less than 25 percent of
the population is under age 15 and more than 10 percent is 65 or older.

Median Age: The median age is the age at which exactly half the population is older and half
is younger.

Sex Ratio: The sex ratio is the ratio of males to females in a given population, usually
expressed as the number of males for every 100 females. The sex ratio at birth in most
countries is about 105 or 106 males per 100 females. After birth, sex ratios vary because of
different patterns of mortality and migration for males and females within the population.

Number of males
∗k
Number of females

In 1995, there were 96 males per 100 females in Japan.

Age-Dependency Ratio: The age-dependency ratio is the ratio of persons in the “dependent”
ages (generally under age 15 and over age 64) to those in the “economically productive” ages
(15-64 years) in a population. The age-dependency ratio is sometimes divided into old-age
dependency (the ratio of people ages 65 and older to those ages 15-64) and child dependency
(the ratio of people under age 15 to those ages 15-64). Where more detailed data are lacking,
the age-dependency ratio is often used as an indicator of the economic burden the productive
portion of a population must carry—even though some persons defined as “dependent” are
producers and some persons in the “productive” ages are economically dependent. Countries
with very high birth rates usually have the highest age dependency ratios because of the large
proportion of children in the population.

population
Population under age 15+ 64
age
∗k
Population ages 15−64

The age-dependency ratio in France in 1996 was 53. This means that there were 53 persons in
the dependent ages for every 100 persons in the working ages.

1.3 Population Pyramid & its interpretation

The age-sex structure of a country can be studied through population pyramids. A Population
pyramid is a bar chart, arranged vertically, that shows the distribution of a population by age
and sex. Each year a new cohort is born and appears at the bottom of the pyramid, while the
cohorts above it move up. As the cohorts age, they inevitably lose members because of death
and may gain or lose members because of migration. After age 45 the attrition process
accelerates, causing the narrowing peak of all population pyramids. Such pyramids can tell a

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great deal about a population at a glance. Notice, for example, that females form the
substantial majority in the oldest age groups. In most countries, females outlive males. By
convention, the younger ages are at the bottom, with males on the left and females on the
right. The horizontal bars show the percentage (or in some cases the actual numbers) of males
and females in each age group.

Figure 1.1 Population pyramids for developing and developed countries

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Figure 1.2: Population pyramids for country with rapid growth vs a country with slow
growth

1.4 Use of Age/Sex Composition

• The age-sex structure determines potential for future growth of specific age groups, as
well as the total population. For these reasons, the age structure has significant
government policy implications.
• Age-sex structure has considerable impact on the population’s social and economic
situation, both present and future. For example: A population of young people needs a
sufficient number of schools and, later, enough jobs to accommodate them. Countries
with large proportions of older people must develop retirement systems and medical
facilities to serve them. Therefore, as a population ages, needs change from childcare
and schools to jobs, housing, and medical care.

Unit test
1. Explain meanings of the following terms:
a) Sex ratio
b) Median age
c) Age dependency ratio
d) Population pyramid
2. Refer to Figure 1.2; explain why the pyramid for Ethiopia has a wider base and why
the pyramid for United States has a narrow base.
3. How can age structure affect government policy?

References/Further reading
Kpedekpo, G.M.K (1982). Essentials of demography analysis for Africa. London:
Heinemann
Malawi Government: Demographic and Health Surveys, Various Years.
Malawi Government: Population Census Report, Various Years.
Pollard , A.H; Yusuf,A.; and Pollard,G.N (1981).Demography Techniques. Oxford:
Pergamon Press
Present, R.(1972). Demography Analysis. New York: Aldine, Atherton.
Shyrock H.S and Spiegel, J.S (1976).The methods of Materials of Demography. New York
Academic Press.
Spigelman, M (1968).Introduction to Demography.2nd ed Cambridge: Harvard University
Press.
Todaro, M. and Smith, S (2011). Economic Development. 11 Edition. Longman Group
Publisher.
UN (1998).World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 1998 Revision Database. New York:
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.

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United Nations: Demographic Year Book, Various years.

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UNIT 2: TOOLS OF DEMOGRAPHY
2.0 Unit introduction
In order to be able to study the structure and composition of human populations, we need to
have tools that enable us to estimate different aspects of the population like the probability of
an individual dying or surviving. Without such tools it would be difficult to draw meaningful
conclusions about the population hence adversely affecting the efficacy of the decisions that
we make about such populations. Therefore in this unit we discuss such the tools that can be
used in demography. We introduce life tables and the techniques or methods used to
construct such tables.

Unit learning outcomes

After studying this unit students should be able to:

a) Explain the meaning of life table
b) Describe different types of life tables
c) Construct life tables

Key terms

Life table, cohort

1.1 What is a life Table?

A life table is a table which shows, for a person at each age, what the probability is that they
die before their next birthday. A number of statistics can be derived and thus also included in
the table is:
1) the probability of surviving any particular year of age
2) the remaining life expectancy for people at different ages
3) the proportion of the original birth cohort still alive.
Life tables are usually constructed separately for men and for women because of their
substantially different mortality rates. Life tables are also used in biology. Within
demography, the life table is used in many studies including those of fertility, nuptiality,
population projections and migration.

Outside demography, actuaries use life tables to estimate the likelihood of occurrence of an
event and an insurance company may want to
1) formulate a policy,
2) do staffing of companies,
3) Estimate survival chances following major operations or following the
onset of a disease.

1.2 Construction of a life table

Life tables can be constructed using projections of future mortality rates, but more often they
are a snapshot of age-specific mortality rates in the recent past, and do not necessarily purport
to be projections. For these reasons, the older ages represented in a life table may have a
greater chance of not being representative of what lives at these ages may experience in
future. A life table is created by mortality rates and census figures from a certain population,

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ideally under a closed demographic system - This means that immigration and emigration do
not exist when analyzing a cohort in a closed demographic system.
1.2.1 Types of Life Tables
There are two types of life tables:
i. Period or static life tables show the current probability of death (for people of
different ages, in the current year). Static life tables sample individuals
assuming a stationary population with overlapping generations.
ii. Cohort life tables show the probability of death of people from a given cohort
(especially birth year) over the course of their lifetime.

"Static Life tables" and "cohort life tables" will be identical if population is in equilibrium
and environment does not change.

If a population were to have a constant number of people each year it would mean that the
probabilities of death from the life table were completely accurate. Also, same numbers of
people were born each year with no immigration or emigration involved or where emigration
is equal to immigration.

"Life table" primarily refers to period life tables, as cohort life tables can only be constructed
using data up to the current point, and distant projections for future mortality.

1.2.2 Construction and notation of a life table

A life table has various columns including
i) Age interval, x to x+n
ii) The probability of dying between age x and (x + n), nQx
iii) The number of persons alive at age x or number of survivors at age x, lx:
iv) The number of persons dying during age interval x, ndx
v) The Number of Person Years lived after age x, Lx
vi) Total Number of Person Years lived after age x, Tx
vii) Life expectancy at age x, ex

Table 2.1: An example of a life table

Age nq x nl x nd x nL x Tx ex
(x)
dx 1 ∞
Te
x+n
lx
l x (1−q x−1) ¿ ( l x +l x+1 )=l x q x (l + l )
2 x x+1 ∑ L. x lx
x=0
0-1 0.006593 100000 659
1-4 0.001132 99341
5-9 0.000623 99228
10-59 0.000779 99167

60-79 0.002875 99089

80-99 0.004689 98341
100 & 0.005466 97863
above

1.3 Strength and weaknesses of Life tables

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Strength
 It is a summary measure of mortality, providing an overall picture of mortality,
allowing countries and regions to be compared.
Weaknesses
 It is a hypothetical measure that has the potential to be misunderstood by the general
public/media.
 It does not say much about who is still alive, and their quality of life; for example,
how many years are lived with disability before dying. This has led to attempts to
bring together morbidity and mortality, with measures such as Health Adjusted Life
Expectancy and Disability Adjusted Life Years

1.3 Ending of a Life Table

In practice, it is useful to have an ultimate age associated with a mortality table. Once the
ultimate age is reached, the mortality rate is assumed to be 1.000. This age may be the point
at which life insurance benefits are paid to a survivor or annuity payments cease. There are
four methods that can be used to end mortality tables:
i) The Forced Method: Select an ultimate age and set the mortality rate at that age equal
to 1.000 without any changes to other mortality rates. This creates a discontinuity at
the ultimate age compared to the penultimate and prior ages.
ii) The Blended Method: Select an ultimate age and blend the rates from some earlier age
to dovetail smoothly into 1.000 at the ultimate age.
iii) The Pattern Method: Let the pattern of mortality continue until the rate approaches or
hits 1.000 and set that as the ultimate age.
iv) The Less-Than-One Method: This is a variation on the Forced Method. The ultimate
mortality rate is set equal to the expected mortality at a selected ultimate age, rather
1.000 as in the Forced Method. This rate will be less than 1.000.

Unit test
1. Explain the different types of life tables.
2. What is the importance of a life table in managing populations
3. Table 2.1 has some gaps in different columns, complete the table in all relevant
columns

References/Further reading
Kpedekpo, G.M.K (1982). Essentials of demography analysis for Africa. London:
Heinemann
Malawi Government: Demographic and Health Surveys, Various Years.
Malawi Government: Population Census Report, Various Years.
Pollard , A.H; Yusuf,A.; and Pollard,G.N (1981).Demography Techniques. Oxford:
Pergamon Press
Present, R.(1972). Demography Analysis. New York: Aldine, Atherton.
Shyrock H.S and Spiegel, J.S (1976).The methods of Materials of Demography. New York
Academic Press.

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Spigelman, M (1968).Introduction to Demography.2nd ed Cambridge: Harvard University
Press.
Todaro, M. and Smith, S (2011). Economic Development. 11 Edition. Longman Group
Publisher.
UN (1998).World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 1998 Revision Database. New York:
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
United Nations: Demographic Year Book, Various years.

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UNIT 3: POPULATION CHANGE
3.0 Unit Introduction
Understanding the dynamics of human populations is one of the major goals of demography
because describing a population accurately requires that you have adequate information of
how the population changes over time. Knowledge of population change can help us predict
the size of a particular population at different future times which is necessary for economic
planning. In order to understand population change it is important to understand the factors
that affect or are responsible for that change. In this unit we discuss the major factors that
affect human population change.
Unit learning outcomes
After studying this unit students should be able to:
a) Explain the major factors that influence population change
b) Explain the measures of mortality and fertility
c) Describe the various stages of demographic transition

Key terms
Fertility, Mortality, Migration, Demographic transition

3.1 Components of population change

Population change has three components: births, deaths, and migration. As people are born,
die, or move, their total numbers in an area change. The most basic method of calculating
numerical population change over time is the “balancing equation,” shown below.
P1 + ( B−D ) +(I −E)=P2

Where P2 is the population at the later date is, P1is the population at the earlier date, B is
births and D is deaths between the two dates and I is immigration (or in-migration) and E is
emigration (or out-migration) between two dates.

3.2 General Profiles or patterns of population change

Populations of countries can differ markedly as a result of past and current patterns of
fertility, mortality, and migration. However, they all tend to fall into three general profiles of
age-sex composition.
1. Rapid growth is indicated by a pyramid with a large percentage of people in the younger
ages.
2. Slow growth is reflected by a pyramid with a smaller proportion of the population in the
younger ages.
3. Zero growth or decreasing populations are shown by roughly equal numbers of people in
all age ranges, tapering off gradually at the older ages.

Natural Increase is the surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths in a population in a given
time period.
¿=B−D
Where NI is the natural increase during a period and B is the number of births and D is the
number of deaths during that period.

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Rate of Natural Increase is the rate at which a population is increasing (or decreasing) in a
given year due to a surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths, expressed as a percentage of the
base population. This rate does not include the effects of immigration or emigration.

Births ∈a year−Deaths ∈a year

∗k
Total population

The rate of natural increase can also be calculated from birth and death rates:
Birthrate−Deathrate
10

Growth Rate
The growth rate is the rate at which a population is increasing (or decreasing) in a given year
due to natural increase and net migration, expressed as a percentage of the base population.
The growth rate takes into account all components of population growth: births, deaths, and
migration.

Births ∈a year−Deaths ∈a year ± Net migration∈a year

∗k
Total population

The growth rate can also be calculated from natural increase and net migration rates:
Rate of natural increase+ Net migration rate
Birth rates and population growth characteristically fluctuate. A growth rate that is declining
does not necessarily mean that an area’s population is declining. Rather, it may indicate only
that the population is growing at a slower rate. A negative growth rate means that an area is
losing population. Today, about a dozen countries, all in Europe, are experiencing a decline
in total population, but many countries are experiencing a decline in their rates of population
growth.
Doubling Time
Growth expressed as a percentage is not very descriptive for many purposes. Is a 3 percent
growth rate fast or slow? A more vivid way of showing population growth is to calculate how
long, at its current growth rate, a population would take to double in size. A country with a
constant growth rate of 1 percent would double its population in about 70 years; at 2 percent,
in 35 years; at 3 percent, in 23 years. A quick way to approximate doubling time is to divide
70 by the growth rate expressed as a percent.
3.2 Fertility
Fertility refers to the number of live births women have. It differs from fecundity, which
refers to the physiological capability of women to reproduce. Fertility is directly determined
by a number of factors that, in turn, are affected by a great many social, cultural, economic,
health, and other environmental factors.

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Birth Rate -also called the crude birth rate indicates the number of live births per 1,000
women in a given year. Births are only one component of population change, and the birth
rate should not be confused with the growth rate, which includes all components of change
Number of births
∗k
Total population

3.2.1 Some Basic Fertility Measures

a) General Fertility Rate
The general fertility rate (also called the fertility rate) is the number of live births per 1,000
women ages 15-49 in a given year. The general fertility rate is a somewhat more refined
measure than the birth rate because it relates births to the age-sex group at risk of giving birth
(usually defined as women ages 15-49). This refinement helps eliminate distortions that
might arise because of different age and sex distributions among populations. Thus, the
general fertility rate is a better basis to compare fertility levels among populations than are
changes in the crude birth rate.
Number of births
∗k
Number of women ages 15−49

b) Age-Specific Fertility Rate

Fertility rates can also be calculated for specific age groups to see differences in fertility
behaviour at different ages or for comparison over time.

Number of births ¿ women ages 20−24 ¿ ∗k

Number of women ages 20−24

c) Children Ever Born

The number of “children ever born” at various ages of the mother provides one measure of a
population’s fertility. This measure is useful only if the age group of women considered is
specified. When this measure is calculated for women over age 49, it is called the completed
fertility rate; it shows how many children a certain cohort of women who have completed
childbearing actually produced during their childbearing years. Often, though, we need to
summarize current fertility, without waiting for the end of the childbearing years; for this
purpose, the total fertility rate is used.
d) Total Fertility Rate

The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that would be born to a
woman by the time she ended childbearing if she were to pass through all her childbearing
years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. The TFR sums up, in a
single number, the fertility of all women at a given point in time. In effect, it says: This is the

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total number of children a woman would have if the fertility rates for a given year applied to
her throughout her reproductive life.
The TFR is a synthetic measure; no individual woman is very likely to pass through three
decades conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of any single year. In reality, age-
specific rates change and fluctuate from year to year, even if only gradually. For example,
women who were ages 15-19 in 2003 may delay childbearing longer than women ages 15-19
in, say, 1990. They would lower the TFR a bit in 2003 but then raise it several years later
when they begin their childbearing. Thus, year-to-year fluctuations in the TFR may reflect
changes in the timing of births rather than changes in the average number of children women
bear. The TFR is one of the most useful indicators of fertility because it gives the best picture
of how many children women are currently having.

Table 3.1: Some measures of fertility

Age of (1) (2) (3) (4)
women Number of women Number of births to Birth rate Age-specific birth rate
that age group (2)/(1) (3)X5
15-19 244,000 4,474 .018 .090
20-24 225,800 28,013 .124 .620
25-29 194,200 36,440 .188 .940
30-34 182,300 27,402 .150 .750
35-39 181,400 14,044 .077 .385
40-44 177,600 3,176 .018 .090
45-49 151,100 182 .001 .005

The rates in column (3) simulate the likelihood of a woman giving birth during each year of
her childbearing years—that is, they approximate the “risk” of having a birth. Multiplying
each of these rates by five provides the number of children she would have for each five-year
period. Each woman is subject to the annual “risk” of a birth five times in each age group; for
example, 0.124 when she is 20, 0.124 when she is 21, and so on. Summing the rates for all
age categories results in the number of children she would have by age 49—the total fertility
rate.
The total fertility rate in 2002 in Israel was 2.9 births per woman (or 2,900 births per 1,000
women). That is, if 2002 age-specific rates continued unchanged, women in Israel would
average 2.9 children each during their childbearing years. In some developing countries, the
TFR is more than five children per woman. In most developed countries, it is below two.
d) Gross Reproduction Rate
The gross reproduction rate (GRR) is the average number of daughters that would be born to
a woman (or group of women) during her lifetime if she passed through her childbearing
years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year. This rate is like the TFR
except that it counts only daughters and literally measures “reproduction”—a woman
reproducing herself by having a daughter.
e) Net Reproduction Rate

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The net reproduction rate (NRR) is the average number of daughters that would be born to a
woman (or group of women) if she passed through her lifetime from birth conforming to the
age specific fertility and mortality rates of a given year. This rate is like the GRR, but it is
always lower because it takes into account the fact that some women will die before
completing their childbearing years.
Table 3.2: Growth Reproduction Rate & Net Reproduction Rate
Country 1993GRR 1993NRR

Burkina Faso 3.50 2.41

United Kingdom 0.86 0.85

In 1993, Burkina Faso had a GRR of 3.50, while that of the United Kingdom was only 0.86.
That means that, if 1993 fertility levels were to continue, a woman in Burkina Faso would
produce 3.5 daughters, on average, during her lifetime. In the United Kingdom, by contrast, a
woman would produce less than one daughter on average during her lifetime. In Burkina
Faso, one daughter would die, on average, before completing her childbearing years.
f) Child-Woman Ratio
The child-woman ratio is the number of children under age 5 per 1,000 women of
childbearing age in a given year. It is a useful characteristic which greatly facilitates
comparison of fertility between parts of cities and other small areas. Because of its spatial
comparisons, the child-woman ratio is important in geographic studies of population. A
disadvantage is that, like the general fertility rate, the child-woman ratio does not allow for
difference in the fertility of women of different age or marital status. The child-woman ratio
relates births to all women aged 15-49, irrespective of the likelihood of having a [Link]
measure can be calculated from national censuses or survey data, thereby providing fertility
data where birth statistics may not otherwise be available.
Number of childrenunder age 5
∗k
Number of women ages 15−49
For example: In a population of 1,304,000 children under the age of five, and 4,674,000
women ages 15-49. Then the child-woman ratio will be:
1,304,000
∗1000 = 279
4,672,000
This means there were 279 children under age 5 per 1,000 women of childbearing age.
g) Replacement-Level Fertility
Replacement-level fertility is the level of fertility at which women in the same cohort have
exactly enough daughters (on average) to “replace” themselves in the population. An NRR of
1.00 is equal to replacement level. Once replacement-level fertility has been reached, births
will gradually reach equilibrium with deaths, and in the absence of immigration and

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emigration, a population ultimately will stop growing and become stationary. The time this
process takes varies greatly depending upon the age structure of the population.
Today, virtually all developed countries are at or below replacement-level fertility. In 2000,
Finland, with an NRR of 0.84, was below replacement level; still the Finnish population is
growing. The TFR can also be used to indicate replacement-level fertility by showing the
average number of children sufficient to replace both parents in the population. In the
developed countries today, a TFR of about 2.1 is considered to be replacement-level.
Replacement level TFRs higher than exactly 2.0 (one child for each parent) are needed
because there are slightly more males than females born and not all females survive to their
childbearing years. In developing countries, with much higher mortality rates TFRs higher
than 2.1 are necessary to achieve replacement level.
h) Population Momentum
Population momentum refers to the tendency of a population to continue to grow after
replacement-level fertility has been achieved.

i) Birth Rate for Unmarried Women

The birth rate of unmarried women is the number of live births by unmarried women per 1,000
unmarried women ages 15-49 years in a given year. This rate indicates the number of infants born to
unmarried women and should not be confused with the percentage of births to unmarried women
described below.

Number of births ¿unmarried women ¿ ∗k

Number of unmarried women ages 15−49

j) Percentage of Births outside Marriage

The percentage of births outside marriage is the number of live births to unmarried women
(never married, widowed, or divorced) per 100 total live births in a given year. This measure
relates births to unmarried women to total births. The percentage of births outside marriage
can grow while the rate of births to unmarried women declines or remains stable. This can
occur when the proportion of women who are not married increases.

Number of births ¿unmarried women ¿ ∗k

Total live births

3.3 Mortality
Mortality refers to deaths that occur within a population. Death Rate also called the crude
death rate is the number Death deaths per 1,000 individuals in a given year.
Number of deaths
∗k
Total population
3.3.1 Basic Mortality Measures
a) Crude Death Rate (CDR)

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It refers to the number of deaths per 1,000 individuals. Crude death rates are affected by
many population characteristics, particularly age structure. It is therefore prudent, when
comparing death rates between countries, to adjust for differences in age composition before
making inferences about a country’s health, economic, or environmental conditions.
It is generally a poor measure of mortality as it is affected by the population age structure. In
many developing countries is lower than in highly developed countries just because the
former has a much younger age structure. The CDR covers all ages, yet a crucial aspect of
mortality is the way it varies by age. One important use of CDR is to calculate Crude Rate of
Natural Increase-the difference between the CBR and CDR.
b) Age-Specific Death Rate Death rates
This can be calculated for specific age groups in order to compare mortality at different ages
or at the same age over time. Comparisons also can be made between countries or areas.
Because mortality varies greatly by sex and race, age-specific death rates are often given
separately for males and females and for different racial groups in a population.

Deaths of people ages 40−44

∗k
Total population ages 40−44

c) Infant Mortality Rate

The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths of infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births
in a given year.
Number of deaths of infants under age 1∈a given year
∗k
Total live births ∈that year

Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) calculated in this way is not a proper rate but a ratio, as the
denominator is not the population at risk of the events in the numerator. IMR is often broken
down into three parts: Early, Late and Post-Neonatal mortality.
• Early Neonatal Mortality the number of deaths to infants under 1 week of age per
1,000 live births in a given year.
• Late Neonatal Mortality rate the number of deaths to infants between 1 and 4 weeks
of age per 1,000 live births in a given year
• Post Neonatal Mortality Rate The number of deaths to infants between 4 and 52
weeks of age per 1000 live births in a given year.
• Neonatal Mortality Rate The number of deaths to infants under 28 days of age per
1000 live births in a given year.
d) Maternal Mortality Ratio
The maternal mortality ratio is the number of women who die as a result of complications of
pregnancy or childbearing in a given year per 100,000 live births in that year. Deaths due to
complications of spontaneous or induced abortions are included. This measure is sometimes
referred to as the maternal mortality rate; it is best to specify the denominator when using

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either measure. A true maternal mortality rate would divide the number of maternal deaths by
the number of women of childbearing age in the population.
Number of martenal deaths
∗k
Total live births

e) Life Expectancy
Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of additional years a person could
expect to live if the age-specific death rates for a given year prevailed for the rest of his or her
life. Life expectancy is a hypothetical measure because it is based on current death rates and
actual death rates change over the course of a person’s lifetime. Each person’s life
expectancy changes as he or she grows older and as mortality trends change.
3.4 Migration
Migration is the geographic movement of people across a specified boundary for the purpose
of establishing a new permanent or semi-permanent residence. Along with fertility and
mortality, migration is a component of population change. The terms “immigration” and
“emigration” are used to refer to moves between countries (international migration). The
parallel terms “in-migration” and “out-migration” are used for movement between areas
within a country (internal migration).

3.4.1 Criteria for Measuring Migration

a) Immigration and Emigration rate
• Immigration rate
The immigration rate is the number of immigrants arriving at a destination per 1,000
individuals at that destination in a given year.
Number of immigrants
∗k
Total population at destination

• Emigration rate
The emigration rate is the number of emigrants departing an area of origin per 1,000
individuals at that area of origin in a given year.
Number of emigrants
∗k
Total population at origin
b) Net Migration Rate
The net migration rate shows the net effect of immigration and emigration on an area’s
population, expressed as increase or decrease per 1,000 population of the area in a given year.

Number of immigrants−number of emigrants

∗k
Total population

c) Gross migration rate

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This indicates the total number of immigrants and emigrants during a specific calendar year
per 1000 of the mid-year population of the country.
Number of immigrants+number of emigrants
∗k
Total population

Balancing Formula - Population change in an area is determined both by the level of natural
increase and the level of net migration.
P x+1−P x =( B−D ) +(I −E)

Thus balancing formula is of value in calculating the volume of migration if adequate data for
mortality and fertility are available.
d) Specific migration rates - Various specific migration rates can also be calculated if
adequate migration data are available. The rates may be specific for age, gender, race, or
other characteristics of migrants. For instance, an age-specific net migration rate is the
number of net migrants (net immigrants or net emigrants) of specific age divided by the
number of persons of the same age in the population.
3.5 The demographic Transition
The demographic transition refers to the change that populations undergo from high rates of
births and deaths to low rates of births and deaths. High levels of births and deaths kept most
populations from growing rapidly throughout most of time. In fact, many populations not
only failed to grow but also completely died out when birth rates did not compensate for high
death rates. Death rates eventually fell as living conditions and nutrition improved. The
decline in mortality usually precedes the decline in fertility, resulting in population growth
during the transition period. In Europe and other industrialized countries, death rates fell
slowly. With the added benefit of medical advances, death rates fell more rapidly in the
countries that began the transition in the 20th century. Fertility rates fell neither as quickly
nor as dramatically as death rates, and thus population grew rapidly. Finland is a good
example of a country that has passed through the four stages of the demographic transition.
Stage I
High birth rate, high death rate = little or no growth
Stage II
High birth rate, falling death rate = high growth
Stage III
Declining birth rate, relatively low death rate = slowed growth
Stage IV
Low birth rate, low death rate = very low population growth

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Figure 3.1a: Demographic transition in developing countries

Figure 3.1b: Three historical stages of the demographic transition in Western Europe.
Before the early nineteenth century, birth rates hovered
Unit test
1. Describe different measures of fertility and mortality including their limitations.
2. What are the criteria used for measuring migration?
3. Explain the three stages of demographic transition.

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References/Further reading
Kpedekpo, G.M.K (1982). Essentials of demography analysis for Africa. London:
Heinemann
Malawi Government: Demographic and Health Surveys, Various Years.
Malawi Government: Population Census Report, Various Years.
Pollard , A.H; Yusuf,A.; and Pollard,G.N (1981).Demography Techniques. Oxford:
Pergamon Press
Present, R.(1972). Demography Analysis. New York: Aldine, Atherton.
Shyrock H.S and Spiegel, J.S (1976).The methods of Materials of Demography. New York
Academic Press.
Spigelman, M (1968).Introduction to Demography.2nd ed Cambridge: Harvard University
Press.
Todaro, M. and Smith, S (2011). Economic Development. 11 Edition. Longman Group
Publisher.
UN (1998).World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 1998 Revision Database. New York:
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
United Nations: Demographic Year Book, Various years.

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UNIT 4: POPULATION GROWTH THEORIES
4.0 Unit introduction
In this unit we explore some of the theories about population growth. Understanding the
theories is essential for any demographer or economic planner as these some of these theories
form the ground upon which the field of demography is based. Additionally, learning such
theories will help the student to understand how our understanding of population growth has
evolved over the years. Some of the theories that will be discussed in this unit include the
Malthusian and Boserup’s theories.

Unit learning outcomes

After studying this unit students should be able to:
a) Explain the Malthusian population trap
b) Explain the microeconomic theory of fertility and population growth.
c) Explain the Boserup’s theory.

Key terms
Population growth, Malthusian population trap, Boserup theory
4.1 The Malthusian Population Trap
More than two centuries ago, the Reverend Thomas Malthus put forward a theory of the
relationship between population growth and economic development that is influential today.
Writing in his 1798 Essay on the Principle of Population and drawing on the concept of
diminishing returns, Malthus postulated a universal tendency for the population of a country,
unless checked by dwindling food supplies, to grow at a geometric rate, doubling every 30 to
40 years. At the same time, because of diminishing returns to the fixed factor land, food
supplies could expand only at a roughly arithmetic rate. In fact, as each member of the
population would have less land to work, his or her marginal contribution to food production
would actually start to decline. Because the growth in food supplies could not keep pace with
the burgeoning population, per capita incomes (defined in an agrarian society simply as per
capita food production) would have a tendency to fall so low as to lead to a stable population
existing barely at or slightly above the subsistence level. Malthus therefore contended that the
only way to avoid this condition of chronic low levels of living or absolute poverty was for
people to engage in “moral restraint” and limit the number of their progeny. Modern
economists have given a name to the Malthusian idea of a population inexorably forced to
live at subsistence levels of income. They have called it the low-level equilibrium population
trap or, more simply, the Malthusian population trap.
The theory propounded by Malthus can be summed up in the following propositions:
• Food is necessary to the life of man and, therefore, exercises a strong check on
population. In other words, the size of population is determined by the availability of
food. The greater the food production, the greater the size of the population which can
be sustained.
• Population increases faster than food production. Whereas population increases in
geometric progression, food production increases in arithmetic progression.
• Population always increases when the means of subsistence increase, unless prevented
by some powerful checks. There are two types of checks which can keep population

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 on a level with the means of subsistence. They are the preventive and a positive
check.

Figure 4.1: Malthusian population trap

4.1.1 What to do about the Malthusian population trap?
i) Preventive checks - birth control (“moral restraint”)
Preventive checks exercise their influence on the growth of a population by bringing down
the birth rate. Preventive checks are those checks which are applied by man by enabling him
to see distant consequences like the distress which frequently visits those who have large
families. Late marriage and self-restraint during married life are the examples of preventive
checks applied by man to limit the family.

ii) Positive checks – starvation, disease, wars

Positive checks exercise their influence on the growth of population by increasing the death
rate. They are applied by nature. The positive checks to populations are various and include
every cause, whether arising from vice or misery, which in any degree contributes to shorten
the natural duration of human life. The unwholesome occupations, hard labor, exposure to the
seasons, extreme poverty, bad nursing of children, common diseases, wars, plagues and
famines are some of the examples of positive checks. If preventive checks were not
effectively used, positive checks like diseases, wars and famines would come into operation.
As a result, the population would be reduced to the level which can be sustained by the
available quantity of food supply.

4.1.2 Criticisms of the Malthusian Model

• Malthus asserted that food production would not keep pace with population growth
owing to the operation of the law of diminishing returns in agriculture. But by making

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 rapid advances in technology and accumulating capital in larger quantity, advanced
countries have been able to postpone the stage of diminishing returns. By making use
of fertilizers, pesticide better seeds, tractors and other agricultural machinery, they
have been able to increase their production greatly. In fact, in most of the advanced
countries the rate of increase of food production has been much greater than the rate
of population growth. Even in India now, thanks to the Green Revolution, the increase
in food production is greater than the increase in population. Thus, inventions and
improvements in the methods of production have belied the gloomy forecast of
Malthus by holding the law of diminishing returns in check almost indefinitely.

• They are based on a hypothesis about a macro relationship between population growth
and levels of per capita income that does not stand up to empirical testing of the
modern period.

• They focus on the wrong variable, per capita income, as the principal determinant of
population growth rates. A much better and more valid approach to the question of
population and development centres on the microeconomics of family size decision
making in which individual, and not aggregate, levels of living become the principal
determinant of a family’s decision to have more or fewer children.

“Many ‘Neo-Malthusians’ still feel that population growth will still outrun the food supply,
and that the world will not be able to continue supporting a growing population” - Two
major voices: Paul Ehrlich (The Population Bomb – best seller) And Garrett Hardin (tragedy
of the commons).
4.2 The Microeconomic Household Theory of Fertility
In recent years, economists have begun to look more closely at the microeconomic
determinants of family fertility in an attempt to provide a better theoretical and empirical
explanation for the observed falling birth rates associated with stage 3 of the demographic
transition. In doing this, they have drawn on the traditional neoclassical theory of household
and consumer behaviour for their basic analytical model and have used the principles of
economics and optimization to explain family size decisions. The conventional theory of
consumer behaviour assumes that an individual with a given set of tastes or preferences for a
range of goods (a “utility function”) tries to maximize the satisfaction derived from
consuming these goods subject to his or her own income constraint and the relative prices of
all goods.
In the application of this theory to fertility analysis, children are considered as a special kind
of consumption (and in developing countries, particularly low-income countries, investment)
good so that fertility becomes a rational economic response to the consumer’s (family’s)
demand for children relative to other goods. The usual income and substitution effects are
assumed to apply. That is, if other factors are held constant, the desired number of children
can be expected to vary directly with household income (this direct relationship may not hold
for poor societies; it depends on the strength of demand for children relative to other
consumer goods and to the sources of increased income, such as female employment),
inversely with the price (cost) of children, and inversely with the strength of tastes for other
goods relative to children. Mathematically, these relationships can be expressed as follows:
C d=f ( Y , P C , P x ,t x ) , x=1 , … , n

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Where Cd is the demand for surviving children, Y is the level of household income, Pc is the
“net” price of children, Px is price of all other goods, tx is the tastes for goods relative to
children

Cd Cd Cd Cd

0 0 0 0
Y Px Pc tx
Figure 4.2 provides a simplified diagrammatic presentation of the microeconomic theory of
fertility.

Figure 4.2: The microeconomic theory of fertility

According to the demand-based theory of fertility, the household chooses from among all
attainable combinations the one combination of goods and children that maximizes family
satisfaction on the basis of its subjectively determined preferences. Diagrammatically, this
optimal combination is represented by point f, the tangency point between the budget
constraint, ab, and indifference curve I2. Therefore, C3 children and G2 goods will be
demanded. A rise in family income, represented in Figure 4.2 by the parallel outward shift of
the budget line from ab to a’ b’ , enables the household to attain a higher level of satisfaction
(point h on curve I4) by consuming more of both commodities and children—that is, if
children, like most commodities, are assumed to be normal goods (demand for them rises
with income), This is important in low-income countries where children are often in demand
primarily as a source of future financial security. Note that as income rises, parents may
spend more on each child, preferring a smaller number of children, each of higher “quality,”
for example, healthier and better educated.
Similarly, an increase in the price (opportunity cost) of children relative to other goods will
cause households to substitute commodities for children. Other factors (namely, income and
tastes) being constant, a rise in the relative price of children causes the household utility-
maximizing consumption combination to occur on a lower indifference curve, as shown by

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the movement of the equilibrium point from f to e when the budget line rotates around point
a to ab.
Note, finally, that if there is a simultaneous increase in household income and net child price
as a result of, say, expanding female employment opportunities and a rise in wages coupled
with a tax on children beyond a certain number per family, there will be both an outward shift
and downward rotation of the budget constraint line of Figure 4.2 to the dashed line cd. The
result is a new utility-maximizing combination that includes fewer children per family (point
g compared with point f). In other words, higher levels of living for low-income families in
combination with a relative increase in the price of children (whether brought about directly
by fiscal measures or indirectly by expanded female employment opportunities) will motivate
households to have fewer children while still improving their welfare. This is just one
example of how the economic theory of fertility can shed light on the relationship between
economic development and population growth as well as suggest possible lines of policy.
4.2.1 The Demand for Children in Developing Countries
The economic theory of fertility assumes that the household demand for children is
determined by family preferences for a certain number of surviving (usually male) children
(i.e., in regions of high mortality, parents may produce more children than they actually
desire in the expectation that some will not survive), by the price or “opportunity cost” of
rearing these children, and by levels of family income. Children in poor societies are seen
partly as economic investment goods in that there is an expected return in the form of both
child labour and the provision of financial support for parents in old age. However, in many
developing countries, there is a strong intrinsic psychological and cultural determinant of
family size, so the first two or three children should be viewed as “consumer” goods for
which demand may not be very responsive to relative price changes.

The choice mechanism in the economic theory of fertility as applied to developing countries
is therefore assumed, to exist primarily with regard to the additional (“marginal”) children
who are considered as investments. In deciding whether or not to have additional children,
parents are assumed to weigh private economic benefits against private costs, where the
principal benefits are the expected income from child labour, usually on the farm, and
eventual financial support for elderly parents. Balanced against these benefits are the two
principal elements of cost: the opportunity cost of the mother’s time (the income she could
earn if she were not at home caring for her children) and the cost of educating children — the
financial trade-off between having fewer “high quality,” high-cost, educated children with
high-income-earning potential versus more “low-quality,” low-cost, children with much
lower earnings prospects.

Using the same thought processes as in the traditional theory of consumer behaviour, the
theory of family fertility concludes that when the price or cost of children rises as a result of,
say, increased educational and employment opportunities for women or a rise in school fees
or the establishment of minimum-age child labour laws or the provision of publicly financed
old-age social security schemes, parents will demand fewer additional children, substituting,
perhaps, quality for quantity or a mother’s employment income for her child-rearing
activities. It follows that one way to induce families to desire fewer children is to raise the
price of child rearing by, say, providing greater educational opportunities and a wider range
of higher-paying jobs for young women. This may have the following implications for
development and fertility:

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 • An increase in the education of women and a consequent change in their role and
status
• An increase in female non agricultural wage employment opportunities, which raises
the price or cost of their traditional child-rearing activities
• A rise in family income levels through the increased direct employment and earnings
of a husband and wife or through the redistribution of income and assets from rich to
poor
• A reduction in infant mortality through expanded public health programs and better
nutritional status for both mother and child and better medical care
• The development of old-age and other social security systems outside the extended
family network to lessen the economic dependence of parents, especially women, on
their offspring
• Expanded schooling opportunities so that parents can better substitute child “quality”
for large numbers of children

4.3 The Consequences of High Fertility: Some Conflicting Perspectives

a) It’s Not a Real Problem
We can identify three general lines of argument on the part of people who assert that
population growth is not a cause for concern:
• The problem is not population growth but other issues – the problem is not population
growth but underdevelopment, world resource depletion and environmental
degradation, population distribution, and subordination of women.
• Population growth is a false issue deliberately created by dominant rich country
agencies and institutions to keep developing countries in their dependent condition.
• For many developing countries and regions, population growth is in fact desirable.

b) It Is a Real Problem
Positions supporting the need to curtail population growth base their arguments on the
negative economic, social, and environmental consequences that are said to arise due to high
population growth.

Despite the conflicting opinions, there is some common ground on the following:
• Population is not the primary cause of lower living levels, but may be one
factor.
• Population growth is more a consequence than a cause of underdevelopment.
• It’s not numbers but quality of life.
• Market failures: potential negative social externalities.
• Voluntary decreases in fertility are generally desirable for most developing
countries with still-expanding populations.

There are also some policy approaches that have been commonly agreed to address the
current problem of human population growth which include: attending to underlying socio
economic conditions that impact development, family planning program that provide
education and technological means to regulate fertility. Besides it has also been widely

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acknowledged that developed countries have a responsibility too in controlling population
growth.

What can developing countries do to control human population growth?

• Persuasion through education
• Family planning programs
• Address incentives and disincentives for having children through the principal
variables influencing the demand for children
• Coercion is not a good option
• Raise the socioeconomic status of women
• Increase employment opportunities for women (increases opportunity cost of
having more children, as in microeconomic household theory)
What can developed countries do to help in controlling human population growth?
• Address resources use inequities
• More open migration policies
• Developed countries can also help developing countries with their population
control programs through research into technology of fertility control and
financial assistance for family planning programs.

4.4 Boserup Theory

Esther Boserup was born in 1910 in Copenhagen Denmark and Died in 1999. She studied
Economics and Agricultural Development at the University of Copenhagen. She worked at
the United Nations and she made important contributions to early feminism. Boserup gave a
different opinion when she observed in 1965 that, population increase would stimulate
technological advances to keep food production at check. Boserup argued that population
growth should therefore be seen as an incentive for technology development from agrarian to
modern cutting edge technology.

In conclusion, it would be prudent that The Principle of Population was an 18th century essay
by Malthus. Boserup’s ideas were published in the 20th century. Today we live in the 21st
century whose future potential growth lies in Information and Communication Technology,
ICT. Malthusian theory was relevant in the agrarian technology for a less developed
economy and it is irrelevant at some instances in the world today. Boserup’s theory is based
on the industrial revolution and the opportunities it creates. The ideas of a closed economy
are not applicable in the current information age. The information age has flattened the
universe with the development of globalization making trade and opportunities more diverse.

The two theories are based on economic principles and will still remain relevant to
economists; for instance, the law of diminishing returns that still holds for a number of issues
in economics. Though Boserup’s theory of population is more relevant to the modern
economy, the theory was based on an ideal/closed economy. Boserup never saw the impacts
of immigration and emigration that can either lead to increase or decrease in population
growth. As long as an economy needs extra labor, there will be immigration to take up the
job opportunities. The current unemployment rate in the United States has made her citizens
seek for jobs outside territory. The idea of a closed economy is also irrelevant in the modern
times due to effects of globalization that have opened up economies for growth and
development. Job outsourcing is now a common practice that makes closed economy totally
out of place.

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4.5 Depopulation Theory
Conspiracy theories about depopulation of the Earth come in a number of flavors. The general
theme running through these theories is either that there is an imminent plan to reduce
population using an overpopulation crisis as the pretext, or a secret eugenics plan cover-up.
The elite thus need to kill off the "useless eaters" so, in the first case, they survive the crisis
and, in the second, they can create either enough robots to replace them, or a new race of
obedient super-humans. This could also involve the genocidal depopulation plan – it involves
poisoning or sterilizing people through the use of chemtrails or water fluoridation.
Agribusiness trans-nationals like Monsanto are often implicated in some sort of scheme to
monopolize the world's food supply so it can be easily tainted with deadly toxins. Just about
anything that can be said to involve "chemicals" can be implicated in this nefarious scheme:
vaccines, alleged covert geo-engineering schemes, genetically modified food, etc. Variants of
the theory include those with an anti-abortion tinge who incorporate conspiracy theories
about Planned Parenthood, and AIDS conspiracy theorists who believe AIDS was concocted
in a laboratory for the purpose of reducing the population.

Another variant, largely attributable to Lyndon La Rouche, has worldwide nuclear war as part
of the conspirators' alleged plan along with a deliberate economic collapse and de-
industrialization to force the world back into a "new dark age."

4.6 Negative effects of Population Growth

• Poverty traps (Food Problems)
• Collier’s traps- Conflict trap; Natural resource trap; Land lock, bad governance
• Environmental Consequences - Consequences that arise when the population exceeds
carrying capacity
• Inadequate infrastructure - Sanitation; Water; Public Health; Social services (Urban
Slums)
• Health problem - Malnutrition; Effects of overcrowding
• Lower standard of living

Other population theories include; Kael Mark theory, Neo classical, Anti-malthusian theory,
Optimistic and pessimistic population theories.

Unit test
1. Explain the following theories
a) Malthusian population trap
b) Boserup’s theory
c) Microeconomic theory of fertility
2. Discuss your stand point whether you think population growth is a problem or not a
problem

Page 30 of 62
References/Further reading
Kpedekpo, G.M.K (1982). Essentials of demography analysis for Africa. London:
Heinemann
Malawi Government: Demographic and Health Surveys, Various Years.
Malawi Government: Population Census Report, Various Years.
Pollard , A.H; Yusuf,A.; and Pollard,G.N (1981).Demography Techniques. Oxford:
Pergamon Press
Present, R.(1972). Demography Analysis. New York: Aldine, Atherton.
Shyrock H.S and Spiegel, J.S (1976).The methods of Materials of Demography. New York
Academic Press.
Spigelman, M (1968).Introduction to Demography.2nd ed Cambridge: Harvard University
Press.
Todaro, M. and Smith, S (2011). Economic Development. 11 Edition. Longman Group
Publisher.
UN (1998).World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 1998 Revision Database. New York:
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
United Nations: Demographic Year Book, Various years.

Page 31 of 62
UNIT 5: ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS

5.0 Unit Introduction

In developed countries usually every ten years, or in some cases every five years, the best
possible estimate of the total population size is obtained by means of a population census. But
as a result of cost associated with census and some degree of being somewhat less accurate,
sample surveys are being used to obtain demographic information.
However, populations are continually changing and estimates of the population size are often
required at times other than census dates; For example, in order to compute the crude birth
rate or crude death rate, an estimate of the total mid-year population is required for the year
under investigation. Estimates are also often required of the future population size and
structure. These estimates are used mainly for purposes of economic and social planning to
determine future requirements of such items as food, fuel, manufactured goods, schools,
teachers, etc. In this unit we explore some of the techniques used for estimating and
projecting population sizes.

Unit learning outcomes

By the end of this unit students should be able to:
a) Describe the population projection models
b) Explain the linear factor model
c) Explain the difference between projection and estimation
Key terms
Population projection, population estimation
5.1 What is an estimate?
An estimate is a value that is inferred for a population based on data collected from a sample
of units from that population. Estimation is a technique that systematically adjusts the sample
data to determine an estimated value for the population. For example, if our sample data
shows that 51% of the sample is female then the population will be estimated to be 51%
female (as estimation is based on the assumption that the sample is representative of the
population). An estimate is not a guess, it is a value based on sample data which has been
adjusted using statistical estimation procedures.
5.1.1 Types of estimates
Although in many cases the procedures are the same, population estimates are generally
described as being of three types:
i) inter-censal estimates
ii) immediate post-censal estimates
iii) Future estimates or population projections.

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5.1.2 What is a projection?
A projection indicates what the future changes in a population would be if the assumptions
about future trends actually occur. These assumptions are often based on patterns of change
which have previously occurred. For example: Data collected about the total number of store
locations for a retail chain over three years show an increase from 8 stores in first year, to 12
stores in the second year, to 18 stores in the third year. It could therefore be projected that if
the chain continues to expand following the same pattern of increasing by half (50%) each
year, there will be 27 stores after the fourth year. A projection is not making a prediction or
forecast about what is going to happen, it is indicating what would happen if the assumptions
which underpin the projection actually occur.
Table 5.1: Comparison of Projections and Forecasts
Type of Information The Difference Nature of Assumptions
Projections indicate what future While both involve A projection simply indicates a
values for the population would be analysis of data, the future value for the population if
if the assumed patterns of change key difference the set of underlying assumptions
were to occur. They are not a between a forecast occur.
prediction that the population will and a projection is the
change in this manner. nature of the
Forecasts speculate future values assertion in relation In a forecast, the assumptions
for the population with a certain to the assumptions represent expectations of actual
level of confidence, based on occurring. future events.
current and past values as an
expectation (prediction) of what
will happen.

5.2 How do estimates and projections differ?

An estimate is a statistic about a whole population for a previous reference period which is
based on data from a sample of the population, whereas a projection is a statistic indicating
what a value would be if the assumptions about future trends hold true (often drawing upon
past movements in a population as a guide for the assumptions).
Demographers are rather meticulous in distinguishing between results which they describe as
estimates and those which they describe as projections. The term 'estimate' is generally used
for inter-censal periods or immediate post-censal periods when there is a high degree of
confidence that the results obtained are likely to be very close to the actual figures at the time.
The term 'projection' indicates that future population trends are unknown and that the figures
quoted for future years are meant as an indication of what the future population would be if
certain likely rates of mortality, fertility and migration were to apply.
Because of the uncertainty about future rates it is usual to prepare several projections on the
basis of different sets of rates. It is possible to make fairly reliable short term estimates but
because of changes, particularly in fertility and migration patterns, actual populations in the
long term may depart quite widely from projections made. As there is always a tendency in
later years to compare earlier population projections with actual performance, it is usual to
stress that in some cases population projections are little more than formal calculations

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showing the implications of the mortality, fertility, migration or growth rates on which they
are based. The very publication of a population projection can influence future events as
knowledge of the projections can lead to changes in individual attitudes and behaviour and in
government policies. This destroys the assumptions on which the projection is based but is
not a reason for criticizing the accuracy of the projections.
5.3 Estimation Procedures
The procedures adopted for making these estimates include:
i) Mathematical methods, the fitting to census data of anyone of a variety of
mathematical curves in the hope that the curves will accurately describe how the
population has changed between the censuses, and when extended how the
population will change in the future; and
ii) Component method, the use of annual registration data on births, deaths,
immigrants and emigrants and also future estimates of these components to adjust
the census populations to provide estimates of the inter-censal, post-censal or
future population.

Inter-censal and immediate post-censal estimates

Given the total population at two (or more) different dates it is a relatively simple process to
fit some mathematical curve to the data and on the basis of this curve obtain estimates of the
total population at other dates. The choice of possible curves is considerable but care should
be taken in applying the method, particularly over longer time periods. The appeal of the
method is its simplicity rather than its theoretical justification and large discrepancies may be
expected if curves are projected into the future. This type of projection is generally used for
total population size only and in such cases important information, such as the age
distribution, is not obtained. More accurate results are usually obtained with the component
method which updates a census population by allowing for births, deaths, and net migration
in the intervening period. This method should therefore be used if the data are available and
are of sufficient accuracy.
Mathematical methods
(a) Linear interpolation.
The simplest curve to use is the straight line

It is possible to employ linear interpolation to estimate the population between two censuses
and to extrapolate into the future. The method is sometimes used where the interval is small
but as actual observation has shown that populations do not usually grow linearly other
curves should generally be used.

(b) Polynominals
If population counts are available for three or more censuses it is possible to fit a Quadratic or
higher degree curve to the data e.g.

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The results obtained are usually more accurate than if linear interpolation is used. Satisfactory
results are obtained for inter-censal estimates or immediate post-censal estimates but
projections become more unreliable the further into the future the projection is made.

(c) Geometric
The geometric or compound interest formula method is commonly used. If it can be assumed
that population growth continues at a constant percentage each year, then Pt, the population
in year t, and Po, the population in year 0, are connected by the formula

This curve also provides satisfactory estimates for inter-censal and immediate post-censal
periods but care should be taken in using it for future projections as growth rates do not
generally remain constant for long periods. The above equation represents a growth of a
constant percentage each year, the addition being made regularly every twelve months. In
practice however, growth is a Continuous process rather than an annual increase, in which
case the formula becomes

The meaning and the value of r is thus slightly different in the two formulae. However, for
human populations the growth rate is small and there is virtually no difference in the answers
obtained by the two.

(d) Logistic
The above mathematical relationships all imply that there is no limit to the ultimate
population size and consequently should only be used over a restricted range. It is possible to
use a curve called the logistic curve which assumes the rate of growth does not stay constant
but gradually drops to zero so that the population tends towards a finite size. As most
populations have not yet reached the zero rate of growth all the suggested curves give
reasonable current estimates, but when projections are required the logistic curve is useful
when one might expect a limit to the ultimate population. Various modifications can be made
to the logistic curve to achieve greater conformity with observed data.

Component method
P the population in year t can be calculated from Po, the population in year 0 (the date of the
previous census), and from the components of population growth in the intervening period,
namely the births(B), deaths (D), immigrants (l) and emigrants(E). The relationship is

Provided the above data are reliable and complete then this method is the most accurate for
making inter-censal and immediate post-censal estimates. However, it should be noted that
even in countries where registration of vital events is reliable and relatively complete, some
differences will be found between the population enumerated at the next census and that
obtained by the component method applied over the whole period from the previous census.
Adjustments incorporating the new information are then usually made retrospectively to any
estimates which have been made.

5.4 Population projections

The methods used for projecting the population into the future are essentially the same as
those for preparing inter-censal and post-censal estimates. For projections only a couple of
years ahead any method, even linear extrapolation, may be sufficiently accurate for most

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purposes. Within this short period the differences between the results obtained by all methods
are but a small percentage of the total population.
However as the projection is carried further into the future these differences are magnified
and become significant. Attention was originally directed to mathematical methods, in the
belief that it might be possible to find some relatively simple law of population growth.
Subsequent changes in the birth rate and growth rate showed that such methods were quite
unsatisfactory and projections are now almost exclusively carried out by the component
method. The major advantages of the component method are, firstly, that it enables one to
appreciate the effect of each of the separate assumptions about fertility, mortality and
migration, and secondly, that the projected population is available by age and sex distribution
and not just the total population obtained by mathematical curve fitting methods.
5.4.1 Projections - Methodology
Projection methodologies can be divided into two main categories:
• Procedures for projecting the population considering fertility, mortality, and
migration, by age and sex (component method). Cohort component projects
separately, the components of population change (fertility, mortality & net
migration). Where HIV prevalence > 1%, mortality should be projected to include
impact of HIV/AIDS impact
• Procedures for projecting the population using mathematical functions applied to
population figures but not to each of the components (ratio method). Ratio method
adjusts a population distribution to an assigned total in proportion to the frequencies
in this distribution
Although many of the factors affecting the methodology and analysis of population
projections are the same for all geographic areas, there are important differences as well:
• Data are more readily available & more reliable at national than at sub-national
level
• Migration typically plays a greater role in population growth at sub-national than at
national level
• Population growth rates are generally more variable at sub-national than at national
level hence, choices regarding data, techniques, and assumptions may be different
for projections at one geographic level than for projections at another. In the cohort-
component method, the main difference between national and sub-national
projections is the addition of the component on internal migration
• Although an assumption that future international migration will be negligible can be
justified for many countries, internal migration plays a significant role in almost
every country, and at the sub-national level, it is often the most important and
complex component of population change

5.6 Cohort Component Method

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This method simulates how a population changes according to its components of growth:
fertility, mortality, and migration. Based on past information, assumptions are made about
future trends in these components of change. Then, the projected rates are applied to the age
and sex structure of the population, in a simulation taking into account that people die
according to their sex and age, that women have children, and that some people change their
residence. Base population is grouped into cohorts defined by age and sex
The projection proceeds by updating the population of each age- and sex-specific group
according to assumptions about three components of population change. Each cohort survives
forward to the next age group according to assumed ASMRs. Migration is accounted for by
applying age- and sex-specific net migration rates to each cohort as well. Projected ASFRs
rates are applied to the female population in childbearing ages to estimate the number of
births. A sex ratio at birth is used to divide total births into males and females. These births
are exposed to the appropriate mortality schedule and then the survivors fed into the
projection model.
There is No standard time span over which a projection should be made. Select a span that is
equal to the maximum length of time required for completion of the planned activities; BUT
the longer the time span, the greater the potential deviation of the projected from the actual
population. It is usually most convenient to project population by time intervals equal to the
age intervals
4.6 Ratio Method
Ratio method is applied mainly for projecting the population of small areas within a country
for which all inputs required by the component method are not always readily available. The
method is also useful in the projection of urban and rural populations. This method is used
where an area containing the population to be projected (say district) is part of a larger
(“parent”) area for which projections are available. The small areas should exist in a perfect
hierarchical structure - where geographic units at each level are mutually exclusive &
exhaustive and can be aggregated to higher levels, culminating in one all-inclusive unit. The
main drawback of this method is that it assumes that all the smaller areas will grow at the
same rate as the parent area. After the ratio of the district to national population is obtained,
assumptions are made on the future values of these ratios. Once the future values of ratios are
fixed, the population of the district can be obtained by applying those ratios to the projected
national population in respective years.
Table 5.2: The ration method
Year 2001 2006 2011 2016
National 640054 708185 773854 840603
population (P1) (P2) (P3) (P4)
District population 78855 - - -

Ratio of district to ntl 0.1232 - - -

pop, 2001 (X1)

Projected district 87248 95338 103562

pop (P2 * X1) (P3 * X1) (P4 * X1)

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Once the projection for each small area has been made, ensure the sum of the population of
all small areas tallies with the national total. Using the national total as a control, adjust
proportionally the projections of the small areas. There is no single method or technique that
can improve accuracy. Accuracy depends on the quality of the input data and the
assumptions made about the course of future change. Identifying which projection method is
optimal for a specific type of projection depends on several factors. Of crucial importance is
whether the projections are to be carried out for larger geographical areas (e.g. nations and
groups of countries) where uncertainty is lower, or smaller areas (e.g. sub-national, urban)
where migration makes future population changes more volatile and projections more
difficult.
UNIT TEST
1. What is the difference between an estimate and a projection?
2. Explain the major types of estimates.
3. Using relevant examples explain the two main methods of population estimation.
4. Explain the population projection procedures.
5. Compare and contrast the cohort component method and the ration method.

References/Further reading
Kpedekpo, G.M.K (1982). Essentials of demography analysis for Africa. London:
Heinemann
Malawi Government: Demographic and Health Surveys, Various Years.
Malawi Government: Population Census Report, Various Years.
Pollard , A.H; Yusuf,A.; and Pollard,G.N (1981).Demography Techniques. Oxford:
Pergamon Press
Present, R.(1972). Demography Analysis. New York: Aldine, Atherton.
Shyrock H.S and Spiegel, J.S (1976).The methods of Materials of Demography. New York
Academic Press.
Spigelman, M (1968).Introduction to Demography.2nd ed Cambridge: Harvard University
Press.
Todaro, M. and Smith, S (2011). Economic Development. 11 Edition. Longman Group
Publisher.
UN (1998).World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 1998 Revision Database. New York:
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
United Nations: Demographic Year Book, Various years.

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UNIT 6: SELECTED ISSUES IN POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
6.0 Unit introduction
The rapid increase of human population in recent years has raised a number of issues and
many debates. Some of these issues are more applicable at a national level while others are
more applicable globally. Understanding of these issues helps in understanding how
population increase affects different aspects of the resources as well as how the natural
resource base is affected. In this unit we provide an overview of some of the major issues in
population and development. We introduce issues of climate change and food security.
Unit learning outcomes
By the end of this unit students should be able:
a) Explain how population increase affects the environment.
b) Explain the population growth, food security nexus
Key terms
Climate change, food security
6.1 Population and environment
A population is a group of individuals of the same species occupying a definite geographic
area at a given time. Over the years the human population has been growing steadily (Table
6.1). The population will continue to grow till equilibrium is achieved i.e. Number of births =
Number of deaths. In general the human population has been growing by 90million
people/year, of which 93% of this growth has been happening in developing countries.
Table 6.1: Global Population Growth
Year Population (in billions)
1700 0.6
1850 1
1930 2
1960 3
1987 5
2000 6.1
2050 1.1

Reasons for growth

Every second 4-5 children are born and 2 people die, nearly 2.5 persons gets added every
second. Some of the major reasons for this human population growth include:
 Spread of public health programmes in developing countries.
 Rise in food production after World War II.

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Figure 6.1: World human population growth
6.2 Fertility Trends
Population predictions are very sensitive to future fertility assumptions. At 1990 fertility rates
(constant by region) population would grow to 110 billion in 2100, over 700 billion in 2150.
However fertility rate has been dropping since 1800 in developed nations - now at Zero
Growth. It is declining in much of the developing world.

Figure 6.2: Fertility rate trends

Population Predictions
Most predictions suggest that the human population will be 9-12Billlion by 2050 and 10-
15Billion by 2100. UN requires global fertility to be low to result in less than zero growth in
15 years however this is challenged by large uncertainties.

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Figure 6.3: Population predictions
6.2 Human Population Density
Human population density has been increasing; some parts of Asia and Europe being the
densest areas in the world (Figure 6.4).

Figure 6.4: Population density across the world

The density may increase as some population predictions suggest that the population may
overshoot - When Population Outpaces Resources. This is because as the human population
is increasing resources are decreasing and rates of pollution are increasing (Figure 6.5).

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Figure 6.5: Scenario - current population trend and resources
6.3 Maximum Carrying Capacity
This is the maximum population size that can be supported by environment without causing
detrimental effects to the environment. At the heart of this issue is the concept of Carrying
Capacity (K) - the maximum number of individuals that the environmental resources of a
given region can support. Population growth and Carrying Capacity co-evolve due to factors
such as: Technology, social, political, economic institutions, physical & ecological
environment.
Physical carrying capacity also known as “packing density”, is the carrying capacity when the
population is limited only by space and resources. Cultural carrying capacity is always less.
Nevertheless there is a large difference in opinion regarding how many people the earth can
support. But the accepted range for K is within the range; 10-20 billion people.

Figure 6.6: Factors affecting carrying capacity

The limiting factors to maximum population size, is given by space and resource base. But
the population has maintained exponential growth for the past 100 years.

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6.4 Population Explosion
Population explosion refers to an enormous growth of human beings. There are several
causes of population explosion including; high fertility rates, reduced infant mortality rate,
increased food production and longevity of individuals. Population explosion obviously leads
to high resource consumption e.g. increase in the use of fossil fuels such as coal and oils. It
also results in the increased generation of municipal wastes which may result into different
kinds of pollution.
6.5 Resource Limitations
Land
Due to limited agricultural land people have resorted to deforestation to acquire more arable
land. This land may probably run out in the next century at current yields rate because the
world will probably double the yields.

Figure 6.6: Possible land futures

Water
In 1950 people used half of accessible water but currently people rely on dams, because
pollution of various kinds have led to 33% loses of potential water. Thus the world is getting
close to limits. Figure 6.7 shows how water consumption has increased over the past years.

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Figure 6.7: Water consumption increase since 1900
Energy Consumption
Energy demand has increased rapidly in the last fifty years, and the demand is mostly for the
hydrocarbon fuels. This is worrisome because hydro carbons are non renewable and their
utilization/ exploitation has accelerated climate change. For example coal has been greatly
used over the years but it has also contributed a lot of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Hence we need
to look for alternative sources of energy.

Figure 6.8: World energy use since 1900

Nevertheless, increased resource use has led to technological evolution, for example cars
replaced horses as transportation needs grew. Energy forms have also changed to meet
changing needs thus new economic and environmental needs are emerging.

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Figure 6.8: Changing economic and environmental needs
6.4 How the Earth has been impacted by increased human population growth
Ecological Footprints have increased and vary for instance on average in:
o United States - 5 hectares/person
o Developing nations - 0.5 hectare/person
For everyone to live at today’s US footprint would require 3 planet Earths increasing
affluence and population is damaging Earth’s essential ecology. Such increases have resulted
into atmospheric pollution and climate change, water pollution, including ground aquifers,
deforestation and loss of oxygenation, National parks, wildernesses and wetlands, and
Nonrenewable natural resource depletion e.g. fossil fuels, mineral ores etc.

Biodiversity is in Danger
Humanity has spawned species extinction to rival the 5 great extinctions of 65 - 440 million
years ago. Recovery times from the great extinctions took 10’s of millions of years.
Biodiversity is essential to life on Earth and holds untold treasures for the future. An
ecological ethic is emerging.

Global Warming - A Good Example

Atmospheric CO2 is increasing, and creates greenhouse effect. 3-5°C rises in temperature
predicted by computer models for this century would have major environmental impact.
Observed change of 0.25-0.4°surface and 0.0-0.2°C troposphere rise in last 20 years doesn’t
agree with models and may or may not be due to CO 2. Humans emit 6 billion tons/year of
CO2 (up 500% from 1950, and increasing).

Urbanization
Urbanization rates have increased in recent years; in 1950, 29 % people lived in urban areas,
by 2000, 47 % people lived in urban areas and by 2030, estimates show that this will grow to
61 %.

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Figure 6.9: Trends in urbanization
The main causes of urbanization in different regions include rural problems like drought,
discrimination, unemployment, major developments in cities, better life in cities.
6.5 Population growth, climate change and food security (microeconomic
considerations)
Food security is of fundamental importance for human existence. Food security exists when
all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and
nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy
life. Food security is ensured when the following three conditions are simultaneously
satisfied:
1. Physical food availability – it means that the national food economy ensures meeting
of at least the minimum physiological demand, and imports provide foods in excess of
this minimum demand; the physical availability of food is linked with the need to
maintain food reserves.
2. Economical food availability – it means that the economically weakest households
have access to essential food (due to different types of food aid); a consumer has to
have the purchasing power facilitating the purchase of the essential goods and
services on the market; the purchasing power of a consumer on the food market
depends on: income and food prices as well as the prices of other goods and services.
3. The health value of a single food product (food products free of any substances
harmful to health, e.g. residues of pesticides, antibiotics, dioxins, and harmful
colorants, as well as poisonous substances and pathogenic microorganisms) and
consumer food rations (balanced food rations, e.g. the necessary energy level and the
adequate proportions of nutritive components dependent on age, sex and type of
work)

Ester Boserup argued that societies under pressure from population growth invent their own
technologies to increase food production. More people mean that existing land must be
farmed more extensively. Long fallow is replaced with short fallow periods and more labour
is required for farming.
• Forests became grasslands requiring the application of nutrients and the turning of the
soil.
• Men cleared the land and women grew the food

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 • Women weeded the fields to enable the use of short fallow periods
• Increased population led to more intensive agricultural systems using animals to pull
ploughs
• Common land was substituted for private ownership.

Figure 6.10: A summary of Boserup theory.

The forces driving the food equation
The world food situation is being redefined by new driving forces. Income growth,
globalization, urbanization, high energy prices and climate change are transforming food
consumption, production and markets. In this section, we investigate the forces impacting
each of these three areas. Demand for food will rise in the coming decades as a result of
population growth as well as increasing affluence and rising expectations. The latter prompt
more people to eat a resource intensive diet, rich in meat and dairy products. This increases
demand for crops used as animal feed stocks disproportionately.
Population growth is a driver of increased demand. The world population is projected to grow
from 6.5 billion in 2005 to over 9 billion by 2050. This reflects a steady slowdown in the
growth rate: from a peak at 2.2% per year in the last decades of the 20 th century to 1.6% in
2015, 1.4% in 2015-2030 and 0.9% in 2050. However, the demographic challenge is
exacerbated by the fact that almost the entire population growth will take place in developing
countries. It will also occur wholly in urban areas: the urban population will swell by about 3
billion people as the rural population contracts. By 2030, 60% of the world‘s population is
expected to live in urban areas. In Africa and Asia, the urban population will have doubled by
then. This will consequently affect the nature of demand.
Economic growth in the developing world boosts demand
Numerous parts of the developing world have experienced high economic growth in recent
years, especially developing Asia, notably China and India, and to a lesser extent Sub-
Saharan Africa. Even after the current slowdown in global economic expansion, the growth
in developing and emerging countries is expected to remain close to 7% (compared to around
2.5% in developed economies). This economic growth is a key force of change in demand:
with higher incomes and increased purchasing power, some of the poor will become less poor
and be able to afford not only more food but also more diversified food.

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Changing nature of demand
Demand is not only increasing, but changing in nature. Higher incomes, urbanization and
changing preferences are raising domestic customer demand for high-value products in
developing countries. Food consumption is shifting from grains and other staple crops to
meat, dairy, fish, eggs, pulses, Vegetables and fruits, especially in India and China. As
expected, the amount and growth of intake of animal foods are positively correlated with
income levels. The demand for ready-to-cook and ready-to-eat foods in general is rising,
particularly in urban areas. These foods do not always have the same nutritional value as
fresh or home-made food, and tend to have a higher environmental footprint (energy
consumption during processing, additional air pollution etc.).

6.5.1 Factors affecting world food supply

According to the FAO (2008), in order to feed a population of more than 9 billion and free
the world from hunger, global food production must nearly double by 2050. Food production
will be shaped by a multitude of factors, both natural and human-driven: land and water
availability, energy supply, climate change, agricultural science and technology innovations,
and access to finances. Another aspect, beyond the scope of this paper, is fisheries:
aquaculture shows great potential as a food source for the 21st century.

Land constraints

Increasing the amount of land under cultivation is one means of producing more food, and is
the way agriculture has grown through most of history. In theory, there is still land potentially
convertible to agricultural use. But the cost of bringing new land into production can be high,
either financially or from an environmental point of view. Large investments in infrastructure
would be required in Sub-Saharan countries. In the more densely populated parts of the
world, the land frontier has closed.

Water scarcity
Fresh water is becoming scarce, and this is expected to be a significant limiting factor on
agricultural production capacity in the 21 st century. On one hand, water consumption per
capita is increasing: 350 m in 1900 and 642 m in 2000 on average, per person, per year. In
addition, the world population is growing. Water withdrawals have tripled over the last fifty
years. On the other hand, fresh water availability is limited, as only a tiny fraction of the
world‘s water is Freshwater available at the surface, as lakes, soil moisture, air humidity,
marshes, wetlands, rivers and in biomass.

Climate change
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the earth is likely to
warm by 0.2oC per decade for the next two decades, and to rise between 0.6 oC and 4.0oC by
the end of the century, depending on future emissions. Given its share of greenhouse gas
emissions, agriculture significantly contributes to the problem. And climate change will
impact food production in several ways. The direct impact of temperature increases on yields
is expected to be negative on the globally aggregated yields in the coming decades.
Another effect of climate change on agriculture will be water availability. Climate change
drives extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, rainfall shortages, and floods. With the

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increased risk of droughts and floods due to rising temperatures, crop-yield losses are
imminent.
Energy: Supply and prices
The 20th Century saw a major shift in agriculture: mechanization and pesticides replaced
human and animal labour, inorganic fertilizers replaced manure and compost. Underlying
these changes, there was also a shift towards reliance on fossil fuels. Today the links between
the world‘s food and energy economies are stronger than ever. Chemical fertilizers account
for an important part of energy usage, the largest in developed-country agriculture. Fuel for
transport, either internationally or for domestic distribution networks is another important
aspect of the food-energy linkage. On farms, there is the energy needed to extract water for
irrigation, dry crops, heat greenhouses and livestock sheds, and fuel tractors. Further down
the value chain, there is the energy needed to process crops and foods, to provide power for
refrigeration and to cook food in the home. Experts argue about which part of the agriculture
and food value chain uses the most energy. What is clear is that the level of oil prices is
highly significant for the production and distribution of food and agriculture. Food prices and
oil prices are linked increasingly closely, and higher oil prices will tend to contribute to
higher food prices.

Access to finance
In the two decades preceding the recent spike in food prices, the slump in commodity prices
resulted in a drastic decline in aid and government spending on agriculture. The amount spent
on agricultural research and development fell dramatically too. There is widespread
consensus on the need to reverse these trends, from the FAO, the UN and the World Bank,
even though estimates of how much money is required vary widely: from 5 billion dollars
now and 9 billion dollars medium term to 30 billion dollars a year .
The recent G8 summit in l‘Aquila also highlighted the need for more funding. Public
investment in agricultural research and development (R&D) is particularly important for
research focused on the needs of poor countries and poor farmers: indeed, this research tends
to be associated with longer time-horizons and more uncertain outcomes. By contrast, profit-
driven private-sector R&D tends to focus on a few major high-value crops and profitable
markets.
Technological innovation
Given demand growth and resource scarcity, the agriculture industry faces the challenge of
producing more and better food with fewer resources. Globally the average hectare of arable
land supported 2.4 persons in 1960, 4.5 persons in 2005 and, according to some estimates, is
required to support over 6 persons by 2050. But the

Food waste: To be reduced or recycled

Food supply is not only a function of production, but also of food energy efficiency. Not all
food produced is available for human consumption: this is the case for only an estimated 43%
of the cereal crops produced, as a result of harvest, post-harvest distribution losses and use of
cereal for animal feed. Additionally, households do not consume all that reaches their home.
The impact of food waste is not just the decrease in food availability and associated financial
losses. It is also environmental: wasteful use of water, chemicals and fuel for transportation,
and more methane emissions through food rotting.

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6.5.2 Access to food
Food security is achieved when “all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences
for an active and healthy life.” The reason why almost one billion people go hungry today is
not a global shortage of food (over one billion people are actually overweight, mostly due to
over-eating). Rather, poor people lack access to food. We will discuss in this section the issue
of food prices, trade and concentration in the agribusiness.

Food prices: Balancing supply and demand, and beyond

The changes in supply and demand have led to imbalances and drastic price changes. Income
and population growth, rising energy prices, and subsidized bio fuel production have
contributed to surging consumption of agricultural products. At the same time, productivity
and output growth have been impaired by natural resource constraints, underinvestment in
rural infrastructure and agricultural science, farmers’ limited access to agricultural inputs and
weather disruptions. Speculation has also contributed to price increases. The consumption of
cereals has been consistently higher than production in recent years, which has reduced
stocks. And agricultural supply responds modestly (and with a time lag) to price changes:
typically, aggregate agricultural supply increases by 1 to 2% when prices increase by 10%,
with significant differences between crops.

This is partly due to imperfect competition along the supply chain, from producer to
consumer; increased demand translates into higher prices for the consumer, but the farmers
often do not experience these higher prices, which limits their incentive to increase supply.
Market entry barriers and high costs (of fertilizers, seeds, energy or additional land) also
impede their ability to boost supply in the short term. In the long term, though, high prices
may trigger investment in technology or reforms (of property rights, for instance), which
potentially lead to higher output. The price of nearly every agricultural commodity sharply
increased in 2007 and 2008, creating a global food price bubble. The unfolding global
financial crisis and economic slowdown have now pushed food prices to lower levels by
decreasing demand for agricultural commodities for food, feed and fuel. Prices for most
agricultural commodities have dropped significantly and swiftly in recent months. Lower
selling prices are generally a disincentive to producers leading to reduced supply.

Trade and globalization

The policy response to soaring food prices has been wide-ranging, from reducing grain
import tariffs to imposing export controls. Agricultural trade has been significantly impacted
by rising food prices, particularly through export restrictions (in the form of bans, quotas or
taxes), in particular for rice and wheat. Governments of at least thirty countries had
implemented export restrictions by July 2008 as a means to promote domestic food security.
Although export restrictions may bring some short-term relief to selected domestic
consumers, economic analysis clearly shows that their overall impact on the domestic
economy as well as on the rest of the world is negative. A more open trade regime would
benefit developing countries in general.

The corporate food system

Driven by gains from economies of scale and globalization of the food chain, multinational
companies increasingly dominate the food sector along the value chain. National, regional,

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and global supply chains are being radically altered, bypassing traditional markets where
smallholders sell to local markets and traders. Consolidations all along the value chain have
concentrated the market power and leverage of large international corporations, transforming
the opportunities for small producers. Better prospects and access to markets have however
also come with new requirements in terms of food safety and quality standards. Whereas this
is positive for consumers, it sometimes creates a barrier to entry for small agricultural
producers, especially in developing countries, until they get organized (as cooperatives or
public-private partnerships).

6.6 Population growth and economic development (macroeconomic considerations)

Population growths also possess a great bearing on the following; Employment opportunities,
Tax collection, Education, Standard of living and Per Capita GDP.
UNIT TEST
1. How does human population increase affect economic growth and development?
2. Explain the major factors that have led to a rapid increase in human population

References/ Further reading

Kpedekpo, G.M.K (1982). Essentials of demography analysis for Africa. London:

Heinemann
Malawi Government: Demographic and Health Surveys, Various Years.
Malawi Government: Population Census Report, Various Years.
Pollard , A.H; Yusuf,A.; and Pollard,G.N (1981).Demography Techniques. Oxford:
Pergamon Press
Present, R.(1972). Demography Analysis. New York: Aldine, Atherton.
Shyrock H.S and Spiegel, J.S (1976).The methods of Materials of Demography. New York
Academic Press.
Spigelman, M (1968).Introduction to Demography.2nd ed Cambridge: Harvard University
Press.
Todaro, M. and Smith, S (2011). Economic Development. 11 Edition. Longman Group
Publisher.
UN (1998).World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 1998 Revision Database. New York:
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
United Nations: Demographic Year Book, Various years.

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UNIT 7: DEVELOPMENT INDICES
7.0 Unit introduction
The major question that development economics attempts to answer is why some countries
are more developed than others? But before we start trying to provide answers for this
question, first we need to know what we mean by “being developed”? What do we mean by
“development”? How do we measure development? Is Development synonymous simply
with Economic Growth? In order to measure development economists use the development
indices. A human development index is a summary measure of in key dimensions of human
development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable and have a decent life. The
Human development index was developed to emphasize that people and their capabilities
should be the ultimate criteria for assessing the development of a country and not economic
growth only. In this unit we examine different development indices including their strengths
and weaknesses.
Unit learning outcomes
By the end of this unit students should be able to:
a) Explain and interpret various development indices
b) Explain the adjustments that need to be made when measuring development.
Key terms
Gross domestic product, Gross national product, Purchasing power parity, Gini coefficient

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7.1 Different Development Goals of Society
The main development goals of any society include:
• Equality of opportunity
• Rising income and standard of living
• Equity in the distribution of income and wealth
• Political democracy and wide-spread participation
• Expanded role for women, minorities and all social classes in public life
• Increased opportunities for education and self-improvement
• Expanded availability of and improvements in health care
• Public and private safety nets to protect the vulnerable
• A clean and healthy environment
• Efficient, competent and fairly administered public sector
• A reasonable degree of competition in the private sector
Each one these goals can be an important target although may have different weights for the
process of development of a country. Yet if we wanted to compare countries with one another
in terms of all these criteria, imagine how complex and difficult the comparison would turn
out to be.
High-quality growth
Over the 1990s, the IMF seemed slowly to be learning from the criticisms of its policies now,
the IMF sees itself as promoting so-called `high-quality growth’ which is “defined as growth
that is sustainable, brings lasting gains in employment and living standards and reduces
poverty. High-quality growth should promote greater equity and equality of opportunity. It
should respect human freedom and protect the environment. Obviously, growth cannot be
high quality, if it does not benefit fully, tangibly, and equitably a group that constitutes more
than one half the population of the world and still bears the primary responsibility for the
care, nutrition, and education of the world’s children. Achieving high-quality growth
depends, therefore, not only on pursuing sound economic policies, but also on implementing
a broad range of social policies.”
What is the criterion for development?
a. The economic growth / income criterion : e.g. GNP, GDP, rate of growth. This criterion
is simple and easy to use, yet it does not really capture development.
b. The indicators criterion: e.g. Human Development Index (HDI), PI, GDI, GPI. This is
more comprehensive and realistic, yet difficult to measure and use for international
comparisons. The most common criterion used as an indicator of development is income per
capita which is used as a substitute or proxy for evaluating the overall level of national
development and welfare. The rate of growth of income (or per capita income) is then used to
judge the progress a nation makes over time. While using this criterion, actually

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economists/researchers/policy makers are quite aware that the development of a nation
actually incorporates much more than average income per person and the growth rate of that
income. Development incorporates the diverse and broad aspirations of what might be called
“good life” in all its economic, social and political dimensions.
Yet the common criterion of income per capita is still used as a substitute or proxy for
evaluating the overall level of national development and welfare because it is so sımple and
therefore convenıent. But it is also often (more so in the recent decades) criticized for not
capturing the overall state of development; for being a too superficial and hence misleading
criterion for development. Therefore another criterion used is the so-called “indicators”
criterion, which tends to be more comprehensive and realistic yet complicated and difficult to
measure.
a) The economic growth or economic income criterion

The two most common measures used for international comparisons of income are GDP and
GNP. Gross National Product (GNP) is the total value of all income (= value of final
output) accruing to residents of a country, regardless of the sources of that income. Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of all income (= value of final output) created
within the borders of a country, regardless of whether the ultimate recipient of that income
resides within or outside the country.
Difference between GNP vs. GDP
If an economy were closed, GNP = GDP. With capital & labor flows across borders, GNP &
GDP diverge from one another through profits, dividends, interest payments and worker
[Link] inflows > outflows, then GNP > GDP. If inflows < outflows, then GDP >
GNP.

7.2 Using GNP or GDP for Ranking Nations: Necessary Adjustments

Adjusting for Population Size

GNP
GNP per capita =
total population
GDP
GDP per capita =
total population
% change GNI per capita = % (total GNI/total population) = % total GNI – % 
population
Note : There is no causal relation and thus its not correct to infer from this equation that
slow population growth causes a faster rate of growth of income per person or that rapid
population growth causes slower growth in income per person.
Adjusting for Nominal Income
Total nominal GDP = i=1n PiQi
Where n is the number of goods and services produced
P is the price of each good

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 Q is the quantity of each good
For example Real GDP at base year’s prices
2008 GDP at 1992 prices = i=1n Pi,1992 Qi,2008
Alternatively:
Real GDP = nominal GDP / GDP deflator
For instance if total nominal GDP in 2008 = US$3,337 million, the price index for 2008
(deflator)= 331.7 and 1992, the base year deflator = 100
Then 2008 total GDP x 100 = US$3,337 million x 100
2008 Price Index 331.7
= US$1,006 million
7.3 Accounting for Income Distribution: Gini Coefficient
Table 7.2 shows a hypothetical example of income distribution and cumuative percent of total
income for country A.
Table 7.2: Income distribution by quintiles, Country A
Share of GNP Cumulative percent of total income
Poorest 20% of families 4% of total GNP 4%
Second 20% of families 8% of total GNP 12%
Third 20% of families 11% of total GNP 23%
Fourth 20% of families 18% of total GNP 41%
Richest 20% of families 59% of total GNP 100%

Accounting for Income distribution: Gini Coefficient

The Gini coefficient = area A / area (A+B)

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Figure 7.1: The Gini coefficient

Table 7.2 Income distribution and Gini coefficients for selected economies
C ountr y P oor est 20% R i chest 20% R i chest 20% a G i ni
P oor est 20% coeffi ci ent

Algeria (1995) 7.0 42.6 6.1 35.3

Argentina (2004) 3.1 55.4 7.9 51.3

Bangladesh (2000) 8.6 42.7 5.0 33.4
Botswana (1993) 3.2 65.1 20.3 60.5
Brazil (2004) 2.8 61.1 21.8 57.0
Chile (2003) 3.8 60.0 15.8 54.9
China (2004) 4.3 51.9 12.1 46.9
Côte d’Ivoire (2002) 5.2 50.7 9.8 44.6
Egypt (1999-2000) 8.6 43.6 5.1 29.5
Ethiopia (1999-2000) 9.1 39.4 4.3 25.5
Ghana (1998-99) 5.6 46.6 8.3 40.8
Guatemala (2002) 2.9 59.5 20.5 55.1
India (2004-05) 8.1 45.3 5.6 36.8
Indonesia (2002) 8.4 45.3 5.4 34.3
J amaica (2004) 5.3 51.6 9.7 45.5
Kenya (1997) 6.0 49.1 8.2 42.5
Korea (1998) 7.9 37.5 4.7 31.6
Malaysia (1997) 4.4 54.3 12.3 49.2
Mexico (2004) 4.3 55.1 12.8 46.1
Morocco (1998–99) 6.5 46.6 7.2 39.5
Mozambique (2002-03) 5.4 53.6 9.9 47.3
Pakistan (2002) 9.3 40.3 4.3 30.6
Philippines (2003) 5.4 50.6 9.4 44.5
Rwanda (2000) 5.3 53.0 10.0 46.8
Thailand (2002) 6.3 49.0 7.8 42.0
Venezuela (2003) 3.3 52.1 15.8 48.2
Vietnam (2004) 4.2 44.3 10.5 34.4

J apan (1993) 10.6 35.7 3.4 24.9

US (2000) 5.4 45.8 8.5 40.8

A Share of total income (or, for some economies, consumption) received by the richest 20
percent of the population divided by the share of total income (or consumption) received by

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the poorest 20 percent of the population. Source: World Bank, World Development
Indicators 2007: Table 2.7, pp. 66-68.
7.4 Accounting for value of home or non-market production
Here non-market activities are left out and may take the form of comparing items/ services
like; home-baked cake versus market bought cake, Kindergarten care versus home care,
cleaning lady versus self-cleaning. In most cases women’s work is regarded as invisible work
yet it is very important as such here we account for some of the activities done by women.
Women unpaid activities are estimated to contribute around 50% of global GDP; thus their
activities account for an important share of a population’s consumption contributing to higher
life standards. After all isn’t this what development is all about? - Higher life standards.
7.5 Accounting for environmental destruction
There are a number of productive activities that detract from good quality life, some of these
activities include; production of military weapons,operations that cause environmental
destruction of forests, production processes that spew toxic wastes into the air and water and
then force society to pay for their clean-up or which create health problems requiring
remediation. These are still counted as positive contributions to the measured level of GNP
and GDP. Rather than adding to welfare, actually these are negative externalities of the
production process. Economists have developed some alternative measures of economic
welfare.
7.6 International Comparisons of Income: Purchasing Power Parity

Purchasing power parity (PPP) is measured as follows:

Where Qi,m = output vector of all newly produced final goods or services i, in country M,
Pi,us = price vector for goods and services i in US prices.

7.7 The Indicators Criterion of Development

The indicators criterion of development comprises the following: i) Measure of Economic Welfare
(MEW), ii) Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), iii) Human Development Index (HDI) -
“longevity, knowledge, and a decent standard of living”, iv) Gender-related Development
Index (GDI) and v) Human Poverty Index.
Human Development Index
HDI = 1/3 L + 1/3 E + 1/3 Y
E = Educational attainment
L = Life Expectancy
Y = Income
xi = E, L, Y

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xi = actual value of xi – minimum value of xi
maximum value of xi – minimum value of xi
E = 2/3 adult literacy rate (A) + 1/3 combined enrollment ratio (C)
max E = 100%; min E = 0%
min L= 25 yrs; max L = 85 yrs
Y = log (PPP measure of GDP per capita) – log (100)
log (40,000) – log (100)
Calculation of the HDI Example: Albania 2001
L = 73.4 – 25 = 0.807
85 – 25
A = 85.3 – 0 = 0.853
100 – 0
C = 69 – 0 = 0.690
100-0
E = 2/3(0.853) + 1/3 (0.690) = 0.798
Y = log(3680) – log(100) = 0.602
log(40,000) – log (100)
HDI = 1/3 L + 1/3 E + 1/3 Y
= 1/3 (0.807) + 1/3 (0.798) + 1/3 (0.602)
= 0.735
Adjustments to the HDI
• The gender-related development index - GDI takes into account the differences
between women and men on the values of the indicators that enter the HDI. All
countries do worse as reflected in the deterioration of their HDI as converted into
GDI.
• The human poverty index - HPI corrects for another weakness of HDI in that it does
not show what’s happening to the poorest members of society. Such that there are
slightly different variables in the index – e.g. % of people not using improved water
sources; % of children under five who are underweight, etc.
Table 7.3: HDI value and rank for different countries

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 HDI value HDI ranka PPPGDP ranking-HDI Rankingb GDId
1990 2004 2004 2004
High Human Development (HDI > 0.800 in 2004)
Australia 0.893 0.957 3 11 0.956
J apan 0.914 0.949 7 11 0.942
United States 0.917 0.948 8 -6 0.946
United Kingdom 0.889 0.940 18 -5 0.938
Singapore 0.823 0.916 25 -4 --
Korea 0.823 0.912 26 5 0.905
Argentina 0.813 0.863 36 10 0.859
Chile 0.787 0.859 38 18 0.850
Costa Rica 0.793 0.841 48 13 0.831
United Arab Emirates 0.810 0.839 49 -25 0.829
Mexico 0.766 0.821 53 7 0.812
Malaysia 0.723 0.805 61 -44 0.795

MediumHuman Development (0.500<HDI<0.799 in 2004)

Brazil 0.720 0.792 69 -5 0.789
V enez uel a 0. 760 0. 784 72 17 0. 780
Thailand 0.717 0.784 74 -9 0.781
Saudi Arabia 0.708 0.774 76 -31 0.744
China 0.628 0.768 81 9 0.765
Philippines 0.722 0.763 84 19 0.761
Turkey 0.682 0.757 92 -22 0.745
Sri Lanka 0.706 0.755 93 13 0.749
J amaica 0.719 0.724 104 6 0.721
Indonesia 0.626 0.711 108 8 0.704
Vietnam 0.618 0.709 109 12 0.708
South Africa 0.735 0.653 121 -66 0.646
Morocco 0.549 0.640 123 -15 0.615
India 0.515 0.611 126 -9 0.591
Botswana 0.680 0.570 131 -73 0.555
Pakistan 0.463 0.539 134 -6 0.513
Bangladesh 0.422 0.530 137 7 0.524
Congo 0.528 0.520 140 25 0.519

Low Human Development (HDI < 0.500 in 2004)

Zimbabwe 0.639 0.491 151 -18 0.483
Kenya 0.548 0.491 152 7 0.487
Rwanda 0.339 0.450 158 -5 0.449
Nigeria 0.407 0.448 159 -1 0.443
Côte d'Ivoire 0.443 0.421 164 -15 0.401
M o z ambi que 0. 316 0. 390 168 - 14 0. 387
Ethiopia 0.314 0.371 170 1 --
Niger 0.246 0.311 177 -7 0.292

Source: UNDP (2006: Tables 1 and 2, pp. 283-91; Table 21, 210-13).

Note:
• The highest, or best, ranking was 1 (Norway) in 2004; the lowest, or worst, ranking, was 177 (Niger).
• If positive, the ranking for the country on the HDI is better than the country’s ranking on per capita
PPP GDP (PPP GDP rank – HDI rank > 0); if negative, the HDI ranking for the country is worse
than the per capita PPP GDP ranking (PPP GDP rank – HDI rank < 0).
• Gender-related Development Index; adjusts HDI for differences in achievement on the HDI variables
between males and females.

7.4 Economic Growth and Equity: Are they at odds or are they complimentary?
If a country places emphasis on factors such as education, equity, health, will this adversely
affect growth? Or, if a country places emphasis on growth, how will that affect equity?
Kuznets (1955) explored historical relation between per capita income and income
distribution for a number of countries. He found an inverted U-shape; an empirically derived
statistical relationship whereby at low income levels economic growth and rising average
income tended to create more income inequality. He also noted that after a threshold level of
income is reached, further economic growth and even higher average income tended to
reduce a nation’s overall income inequality.

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 0.6
Gini Coefficient
0.5 Treshold

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Income per capita

Figure 7.2 : Kuznets‘ Curve

Unit test
1. Explain the main weaknesses of the Human Development Index as a measure or
criterion of development.
2. Why is it important to account for home or non market production and environmental
destruction in measuring development?
3. What are the necessary adjustments that need to be employed when using GNP or
GDP to rank nations?

Page 60 of 62
References/ Further reading
Kpedekpo, G.M.K (1982). Essentials of demography analysis for Africa. London:
Heinemann
Malawi Government: Demographic and Health Surveys, Various Years.
Malawi Government: Population Census Report, Various Years.
Pollard , A.H; Yusuf,A.; and Pollard,G.N (1981).Demography Techniques. Oxford:
Pergamon Press
Present, R.(1972). Demography Analysis. New York: Aldine, Atherton.
Shyrock H.S and Spiegel, J.S (1976).The methods of Materials of Demography. New York
Academic Press.
Spigelman, M (1968).Introduction to Demography.2nd ed Cambridge: Harvard University
Press.
Todaro, M. and Smith, S (2011). Economic Development. 11 Edition. Longman Group
Publisher.
UN (1998).World Population Prospects 1950-2050: The 1998 Revision Database. New York:
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
United Nations: Demographic Year Book, Various years.

Page 61 of 62