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Assignment #: 3
Subject: Introduction to Operations Management
Student Name: Mohamed Abdel Fattah Hussien El Shishiney
Student ID: 22127624
Class : Spring 2023 Quarter: 1 Group: D
Assignment Due Date: 05-15-2023

Answer:
a. Sales data pattern:
Month Period Actual
Jan 1 7 Actual Sales ($10,000)
Feb 2 12 30
Mar 3 11
Apr 4 14
25
May 5 14
Jun 6 19
Jul 7 20 20
Aug 8 27
Sep 9 23 15
Oct 10 19
Nov 11 17 10
Dec 12 18
Jan 13 17
5
Feb 14 18
Mar 15 20
Apr 16 21 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
May 17 21

From the pattern we can see that the time series forecast is random
component.

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 b. the moving average at different values of (n) periods:
Forecast Forecast Forecast
Month Period Actual @ n=3 @ n=5 @ n=8
Jan 1 7 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Feb 2 12 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Mar 3 11 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Apr 4 14 10.00 #N/A #N/A
May 5 14 12.33 #N/A #N/A
Jun 6 19 13.00 11.60 #N/A
Jul 7 20 15.67 14.00 #N/A
Aug 8 27 17.67 15.60 #N/A
Sep 9 23 22.00 18.80 15.50
Oct 10 19 23.33 20.60 17.50
Nov 11 17 23.00 21.60 18.38
Dec 12 18 19.67 21.20 19.13
Jan 13 17 18.00 20.80 19.63
Feb 14 18 17.33 18.80 20.00
Mar 15 20 17.67 17.80 19.88
Apr 16 21 18.33 18.00 19.88
May 17 21 19.67 18.80 19.13
June 18 20.67 19.40 18.88
MAD = 3.31 4.20 2.14
MSE = 18.08 27.83 9.67
Better value of (n)

Chart Title
30

25

20

15

10

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

Actual Forecast @ n=3 Forecast @ n=5 Forecast @ n=8

c. It is better at n=8
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 d. the exponential smoothing :

Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast

Month Period Actual @ α=0.2 @ α=0.4 @ α=0.7 @ α=0.9
Jan 1 7 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Feb 2 12 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
Mar 3 11 8.00 9.00 10.50 11.50
Apr 4 14 8.60 9.80 10.85 11.05
May 5 14 9.68 11.48 13.06 13.71
Jun 6 19 10.54 12.49 13.72 13.97
Jul 7 20 12.24 15.09 17.41 18.50
Aug 8 27 13.79 17.06 19.22 19.85
Sep 9 23 16.43 21.03 24.67 26.28
Oct 10 19 17.74 21.82 23.50 23.33
Nov 11 17 18.00 20.69 20.35 19.43
Dec 12 18 17.80 19.22 18.01 17.24
Jan 13 17 17.84 18.73 18.00 17.92
Feb 14 18 17.67 18.04 17.30 17.09
Mar 15 20 17.74 18.02 17.79 17.91
Apr 16 21 18.19 18.81 19.34 19.79
May 17 21 18.75 19.69 20.50 20.88
June 18 19.20 20.21 20.85 20.99
MAD = 4.04 3.25 2.55 2.41
MSE = 30.19 17.25 11.65 10.42
Better value of (α)

Chart Title
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

Actual Forecast @ α=0.2 Forecast @ α=0.4

Forecast @ α=0.7 Forecast @ α=0.9

e. It is better at =0.9

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 f. linear time projection equation for demand :

Month Period Actual Forecast
Jan 1 7 12.74510 Chart Title
Feb 2 12 13.34314 30
Mar 3 11 13.94118
25
Apr 4 14 14.53922
May 5 14 15.13725 20
Jun 6 19 15.73529 15
Jul 7 20 16.33333 10
Aug 8 27 16.93137
5
Sep 9 23 17.52941
Oct 10 19 18.12745 0
Jan

May

Aug

June
Feb
Mar
Apr

Sep

Jan

May
Feb
Jul

Nov

Mar
Apr
Jun

Dec
Oct
Nov 11 17 18.72549
Dec 12 18 19.32353
Jan 13 17 19.92157 Actual Forecast
Feb 14 18 20.51961
Mar 15 20 21.11765
Apr 16 21 21.71569
May 17 21 22.31373
June 18 22.91176

Slope 0.5980 MAD = 2.75

Intercept 12.14706 MSE = 14.02

y = 12.147059 + 0.5980 t

g. value of demand in June 2023:
y = 12.147059 + 0.5980*18 = 22.91176

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