Simulation – Part 2
Ways to Study a System
System
Experiment w/ Experiment w/
actual system model of system
Schematic Physical Mathematical
model Model Model
Analytical Simulation
Model Model
Our focus 2
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What is simulation ?
A simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-
world process or system over time. It involves
generation of an artificial history of a system
observation of that artificial history to draw inferences
concerning the operating characteristics of the real system.
The behavior of the system is studied by developing a
simulation model.
The model is the set of assumptions about the system.
The assumptions are expressed in mathematical, logical and
symbolic relationships between the entities (objects of interest).
In a manufacturing system, the entities are raw materials,
production machines, material handling equipment, operators,
tools, auxiliary equipment etc.
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Why simulate?
The nature of systems
• Variability
• Interconnectedness
• Complexity
Variability
• Predictable variations
• Unpredictable variations
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Example:
Customers in a service process pass through three
interconnected stages.
Each stage takes exactly 9 minutes.
Customers arrive exactly every 10 minutes.
What is the average time a customer spends in the
system?
This is a relatively simple question to answer, since there
is no variability in the system.
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Suppose, we assume that the times given above are averages,
so customers arrive on average every 10 minutes and it takes
on average 9 minutes to serve a customer at each stage.
What is the average time a customer spends in the system?
This is not an easy question to answer since there is variability
in both customer arrivals and service times.
In fact, assuming a typical range of variability (an exponential
distribution), the average is near to 150 minutes.
The compound effect of variability and the interconnections
in the system make it very difficult to predict the overall
performance of the system. 7
Complexity
Combinatorial complexity is related to the number of components in
a system or the number of combinations of system components that
are possible.
Example:
The travelling salesman problem.
Given a set of cities and the distance between each possible
pair, the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) is to find the
best possible way of visiting all the cities exactly once and
returning to the starting point
The possible combinations of routes is n!, where n is the number of
cities.
As the number of cities increases, so the number of combinations
grows at an increasing rate.
The problem is subject to combinatorial complexity.
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Applications of TSP
Mechanical arm
• When a mechanical arm is used to fasten the nuts for
assembling parts, it moves through each nut in proper order
and returns to the initial position.
• The most economical travelling route will enable the mechanical
arm to finish its work within the shortest time.
Integrated circuit
• Inserting electrical elements in the manufacturing of integrated
circuits consumes certain energy when moving from one
electrical element to the other during manufacturing.
• We need to arrange the manufacturing order to minimize the
energy consumption.
Dynamic complexity is not necessarily related to size.
It arises from the interaction of components in a system over
time.
This can occur in systems that are small, as well as large.
Systems that are highly interconnected are likely to display
dynamic complexity.
Example:
A supply chain consisting of a retailer, wholesaler and factory.
The retailer orders an item from the wholesaler, who in turn
orders from the factory.
There is a delay between placing an order and receiving the item.
A small perturbation in the number of items sold by the retailer
can cause large shifts in the quantity stored and produced by the
wholesaler and factory respectively.
The system is subject to dynamic complexity.
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Effects of dynamic complexity
An action has dramatically different effects in the short and
long run.
An action has a very different set of consequences in one
part of the system to another.
An action leads to non-obvious consequences (counter
intuitive behaviour).
Simulation Models
Simulation models are able explicitly to represent the
variability, interconnectedness and complexity of a system.
It is possible with a simulation to predict system
performance, to compare alternative system designs and
to determine the effect of alternative policies on system
performance. 11
Strengths of Simulation
• Time compression
the potential to simulate years of real system operation in a
much shorter time.
• Component integration
the ability to integrate complex system components to study
their interactions.
• Risk avoidance
hypothetical or potentially dangerous systems can be studied
without the financial or physical risks that may be involved in
building and studying a real system.
• Physical scaling
the ability to study much larger or smaller versions of a
system.
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• Repeatability
the ability to study different systems in identical environments or
the same system in different environments.
• Control
everything in a simulated environment can be precisely
monitored and exactly controlled.
• Experimentation
Characteristics of systems that vary from the assumptions of
analytical model can be studied.
• Transportation time
• Finite buffer space
• Dynamic control strategies
Presentation
Visualization (graphics and animation) aids communicating model
assumptions, system operations and results.
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Disadvantages of simulation
• Expensive
• Data hungry
• Requires expertise
• Overconfidence
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Applications of simulation
• Manufacturing systems
• Public systems: health care, military, natural resources
• Transportation systems
• Construction systems
• Restaurant and entertainment systems
• Business process reengineering/management
• Food processing
• Computer system performance
• Service and retail systems.
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Systems and System environment
• A system is defined as a group of objects that are joined
together in some regular interaction or interdependence
toward the accomplishment of common purpose
• Example: Production system manufacturing automobiles. The
machines, component parts and workers operate jointly along an
assembly line to produce a high-quality vehicle.
• Environment: A system is affected by changes occurring
outside the system. Such changes are said to occur in the
system environment.
• There is a boundary between the system and environment.
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Components of a System
• Entity: Object of interest in the system
• Attribute: Property of an entity
• Activity: Time period of specified length
• Example: A part requiring processing on a machine.
part is an entity, processing time is an attribute, and undergoing
processing on a machine is an activity.
• State: Collection of variables necessary to describe the system at
any time relative to the objectives of the study.
• Status of machine-idle or busy, number of parts waiting in the queue.
• Event: It is defined as an instantaneous occurrence that may
change the state of the system.
• Machine starts processing an operation of a part.
• Depending on the purpose of the study, the number of
components (entities, attributes, activities, states, events) varies.
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Discrete and Continuous Systems
• Discrete systems: State variables • Continuous system: State
change only at a discrete set of
points in time. variables change continuously
over time.
3
No.
of 2 chemical
parts
1
time t time t
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Types of Simulation models
• Static or Monte Carlo simulation
represents a system at a particular point in time.
• Dynamic simulation model
represents a system as it changes over time.
• Deterministic simulation
has known a set of inputs and a unique set of outputs.
• All orders for processing arrive at an appointed time.
• Stochastic simulation
has one or more random variables as inputs. Random inputs
lead to random outputs.
• In a dynamic job shop, orders for processing arrive at random
points in time.
• Output: average number of parts waiting, average waiting
time of a part.
• Discrete-event simulation: Modelling of systems in which the
state variables changes at a discrete set of points in time .
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