5 Probability

Let’s study.

· Probability : Introduction · Random experiment and its outcome

· Sample space and event · Probability of an event

Let’s discuss.

Teacher : Friends, this box contains folded chits. The number of chits is exactly the
same as the number of students in our class. Each student should pick one
chit. Names of different plants are written on the chits. No two chits bear
the same name of the plant. Let us see who gets the chit having the name
'Basil'. Make a line in the order of your roll numbers. No one will unfold the
chit until the last student takes his chit.
Aruna : Sir, I am the first one in a line, but I do not want to pick a chit first, as the
possibility of getting 'basil' chit from all the chits is very low.
Zarina : Sir, I am the last student in the row, I do not want to pick the chit at last as
the chit containing the name 'basil' will most likely be picked up by some
one else before my turn.
The first and the last student feel that for each of them, the possibility of
getting the chit having the name 'basil' is very low. The above conversation
indicates the thinking of less or more possibility.
We use the following words to express the possibility in our daily conversation.
· Probable · may be · impossible
· sure · nearly · 50 - 50
Read the following statements regarding predictions (possibilities for the future).
· Most probably the rain will start from today.
· The inflation is likely to rise.
· It is impossible to defeat Indian cricket team in the next match.
· I will surely get first class.
· There is no possibility of Polio infection if a child is given the polio vaccine in time.

113
 The adjoining picture shows a ‘toss’ before a cricket match.
What are the possibilities ?

or

So here there are possibilities.

Activity 1 : Let each student in the class toss a coin once. What will you get?
(Teacher writes the observations on the board in a table.)
Possibilities (H ) ( T)
Number of students ... ...
Activity 2 : Ask each student to toss the same coin twice. What are the possibilities?
Possibilities HH HT TH TT
Number of students
Activity 3 : Now throw a die, once. What are the different possibilities of getting dots on
the upper face ?

· · ·· · · ··· ···
· · · · · · ···
Each of these is a possible result of throwing a die.

Let’s learn.

Random Experiment
The experiment in which all possible results are known in advance but none of
them can be predicted with certainty and there is equal possibility for each result is
known as a ‘Random experiment’.
For example, Tossing a coin, throwing a die, picking a card from a set of cards
bearing numbers from 1 to 50, picking a card from a pack of well shuffled playing
cards, etc.

114
 Outcome
Result of a random experiment is known as an ‘Outcome’.
Ex. (1) In a random experiment of tossing a coin - there are only two outcomes.
Head (H) or Tail (T)
(2) In a random experiment of throwing a die, there are 6 outcomes,
according to the number of dots on the six faces of the die.
1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6.
(3) In a random experiment of picking a card bearing numbers from 1 to 50,
there are 50 outcomes.
(4) A card is drawn randomly from a pack of well shuffled playing cards.
There are 52 cards in a pack as shown below.
Total cards 52

26 red cards 26 black cards

13 heart cards 13 diamond cards 13 club cards 13 spade cards

In a pack of playing cards there are 4 sets,
namely heart, diamond, club and spade. In each A A

set there are 13 cards as King, Queen, Jack, 10, 9,

8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and Ace.
King, Queen and Jack are known as face A A

cards. In each pack of cards there are 4 cards of

Ace of Ace of Ace of Ace of
king, 4 cards of Queen and 4 cards of Jack. Thus spade heart club diamond
total face cards are 12.

Equally Likely Outcomes

If a die is thrown, any of the numbers from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 may appear on the

upper face. It means that each number is equally likely to occur. However, if a die is
so formed that a particular face come up most often, then that die is biased. In this case
the outcomes are not likely to occur equally.
Here, we assume that objects used for random experiments are fair or unbiased.
A given number of outcomes are said to be equally likely if none of them occurs

115
in preferance to others. For example if a coin is tossed, possibilities of getting head
or tail are equal. A die, having numbers from 1 to 6 on its different faces, is thrown.
Check the possibility of getting one of the numbers. Here all the outcomes are eqully
likely.

Practice Set 5.1

1. How many possibilities are there in each of the following?
(1) Vanita knows the following sites in Maharashtra. She is planning to visit
one of them in her summer vacation.
Ajintha, Mahabaleshwar, Lonar Sarovar, Tadoba wild life sanctuary,
Amboli, Raigad, Matheran, Anandavan.
(2) Any day of a week is to be selected randomly.
(3) Select one card from the pack of 52 cards.
(4) One number from 10 to 20 is written on each card. Select one card randomly.

Let’s think.
In which of the following experiments possibility of expected outcome is more?
(1) Getting 1 on the upper face when a die is thrown.
(2) Getting head by tossing a coin.

Let’s learn.

Sample Space

The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the sample
space. It is denoted by ‘S’ or ‘Ω’ (A greek letter 'Omega'). Each element of sample
space is called a ‘sample point’. The number of elements in the set ‘S’ is denoted by
n(S). If n(S) is finite, then the sample space is said to be a finite sample space.
Following are some examples of finite sample spaces.

116
 S. Random Sample space Number
No. experiment of sample
points in S
1 One coin is tossed S = {H, T) n(S) = 2
Two coins are S = { HH, HT, TH, TT}
2 n(S) =
tossed
Three coins are S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT,
3 n(S) = 8
tossed TTH, TTT}
4 A die is thrown S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} n(S) =
Two dice are S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6),
thrown (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
5
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6),
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), n(S) = 36
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
A card is drawn
from a pack S = {1, 2, 3, 4, .. .. ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .., 25}
6
bearing numbers n(S) =
from 1 to 25
A card is drawn Diamond : Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack,
from a well shuffled Queen, King
pack of 52 playing Spade : Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack,
Queen, King
7 cards. Heart : Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, n(S) = 52
Queen, King
Club : Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack,
Queen, King

Let’s remember!
(i) The sample space for a coin tossed twice is the same as that of two coins tossed
simultaneously. The same is true for three coins.
(ii) The sample space for a die rolled twice is the same as two dice rolled
simultaneously.

Practice Set 5.2

(1) For each of the following experiments write sample space ‘S’ and number of
sample points n(S).
(1) One coin and one die are thrown simultaneously.
(2) Two digit numbers are formed using digits 2, 3 and 5 without repeating a
117
 digits.
Red
2. The arrow is rotated and it stops
randomly on the disc. Find out on Purple Orange
which colour it may stop. Green Yellow
MARCH - 2019
Blue
M T W T F S S
1 2 3 3. In the month of March 2019, find
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 the days on which the date is a
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
multiple of 5. (see the given page of
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
the calender)
25 26 27 28 29 30 31

4. Form a ‘Road safety commitee’ of two, from 2 boys (B1, B2) and 2 girls(G1, G2).
Complete the following activity to write the sample space.
(a) Committee of 2 boys = (b) Committee of 2 girls =
(c) Committee of one boy and one girl = B1 G1
\ Sample space = {..., ..., ..., ..., ..., ...}

Let’s learn.

Event
The outcomes satisfying particular condition are called favourable outcomes.
A set of favourable outcomes of a given sample space is an ‘event’. Event is a
subset of the sample space.
Events are generally denoted by capital letteres A, B, C, D etc. For example, if
two coins are tossed and A is the event of getting at least one tail, then the favourable
outcomes are as follows.
A = {TT, TH, HT}
The number of elements in the event A is denoted by n(A). Here n(A) = 3.
For more information
Types of event.
(i) Certain event/Sure event (iv) Complement of an event
(ii) Impossible event (v) Mutually exclusive events
(iii) Simple/Elementary event (vi) Exhaustive event

118