Chapter 002
Chapter 002
(股) 風
險
(洐生性)
(少數到期日小於1年,但仍為高風險商品) 高
(各類資產的績效評估) 2-2
Major Classes of Financial Assets
or Securities
Financial market
–Money market (≦1 year)
–Capital market (>1 year)
Bond market (longer-term debt)
Equity markets
–Indexes
Derivative markets
2-3
2.1 THE MONEY MARKET
貨幣市場
2-4
Money Market Instruments
2-6
Components of the Money Market
2-7
Treasury Bills
Treasury bills
– Issued by Federal Government
– Denomination $100, commonly $10,000
– Maturity 4, 13, 26, or 52 weeks
– Liquidity Highly liquid
– Default risk None
– Interest type Discount
– Taxation Federal taxes owed, exempt
from state and local taxes
2-8
Treasury Bills
l Asked price(賣出價): 為自營商願意賣出某國庫券的
價位,是投資人買國庫券須支付的價位。
2-9
Figure 2.1: Treasury Bill Listings
Date: July 7, 2011
• The bill matures on Mar 12, 2015; and days to maturity are 177;
• The “annualized” yield under the “Asked” column is given 0.040%:
– 銀行折價法:以一年360天計算(券商’s)賣出價
– 0.040%*(177/360)=0.0197%
– $10,000*(1-0.000197)=$9,998.033
• For the bid yield of 0.045%:
– 銀行折價法:以一年360天計算(券商’s)買進價
– $10,000*[1-0.00045*(177/360)]=$9,997.788
• ASK YLD (相當於持有至到期之年化報酬率):
– (10,000/9,998.033-1)*(365/177)=0.041%
– T-bill’s bond-equivalent yield(債劵約當收益率) 2-10
Certificates of Deposit (CD)
Certificates of Deposit
– Issued by Depository Institutions
– Denomination Any, $100,000 or more are marketable
– Maturity Varies, typically 14 day minimum
– Liquidity 3 months or less are liquid if marketable
– Default risk First $250,000 is insured (台灣300萬)
– Interest type Add on
– Taxation Interest income is fully taxable
2-11
Commercial Paper (CP)
Commercial Paper
– Issued by Large creditworthy corporations and
financial institutions
– Maturity Maximum 270 days, usually 1 to 2 month
– Denomination Minimum $100,000
– Liquidity 3 months or less are liquid if marketable
– Default risk Unsecured, Rated, Mostly high quality
– Interest type Discount
– Taxation Interest income is fully taxable
New Innovation:
Asset backed commercial paper is issued by financial firms, and is
backed by a loan or security.
In summer 2007, asset backed CP market collapsed when subprime
collateral values fell. 2-12
Bankers Acceptances &
Eurodollars
Bankers Acceptances (類郵局匯票)
– Originates when a purchaser of goods authorizes its
bank to pay the seller for the goods at a date in the
future (time draft). (多用於 國際貿易 的支付工具)
– When the purchaser’s bank ‘accepts’ the draft, it
becomes a contingent liability of the bank and becomes
a marketable security.
Eurodollars
– Dollar denominated (time) deposits held outside the U.S.
– Pay a higher interest rate than U.S. deposits.
2-13
Federal Funds and LIBOR
Federal Funds
– Depository institutions must maintain deposits with the
Federal Reserve Bank.
– Federal funds represents trading in reserves held on
deposit at the Federal Reserve.
– Key interest rate for the economy
LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate)
– Rate at which large banks in London (and elsewhere)
lend to each other.
– Base rate for many loans and derivatives.
EURIBOR (European Interbank Offer Rate)
2-14
Repurchase Agreements and
Reverses
Repurchase Agreements (RPs or repos)
and Reverse RPs
– Short term sales of securities arranged with an
agreement to repurchase the securities a set higher
price.
– A RP is a collateralized loan, many are overnight,
although “Term” RPs may have a one month maturity.
– A Reverse Repo is lending money and obtaining
security title as collateral.
– “Haircuts” may be required depending on collateral
quality
※ 以券商的觀點來理解這些商品:
借入 -- 先低賣再高買(附買回);
貸出 -- 先低買再高賣(附賣回) 2-15
Brokers’ Calls
Call Money Rate
– Investors who buy stock on margin borrow money
from their brokers to purchase stock. The borrowing
rate is the call money rate. (T-B + 1%)
– The loan may be ‘called in’ by the broker (or by the
bank).
2-16
Money Market Instrument Yields
2-17
Figure 2.1 Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
Treasury Bills
DAYS TO ASKED
MATURITY MATURITY BID ASKED CHG YIELD
2-19
Money Market Instrument Yields
2-20
Money Market Instrument Yields
• Bond Equivalent Yield
P = price of the T-bill
rBD = 5%
n = number of days to maturity
2-21
Money Market Instrument Yields
• Effective Annual Yield
rBD = 5%
rEAY =
rEAY = 5.23%
2-22
Money Market Instrument Yields
2-23
Yields on Money Market Instruments
2-24
Figure 2.2: The spread
between 3-month CD and T-Bill rates
5.0
OPEC I
4.5
4.0
Financial crisis
3.5
OPEC II
Percentage points
3.0
Penn Square
2.5
Market crash
2.0
1.5
LTCM
1.0
0.5
0.0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2-25
The Money Market: Credit Crisis
MMMF and the Credit Crisis of 2008
– 2005-2008: Money market mutual funds
(MMMFs) grew 88%
– MMMFs had their own crisis in 2008: Lehman
Brothers
– Reserve Primary Fund “broke the buck”
– Run on money market funds ensued
– U.S. Treasury temporarily offered to insure all
money funds
2-26
2.2 THE BOND MARKET
債券市場
2-27
Bond Market
Maturities
– Notes – maturities up to 10 years
– Bonds – maturities in excess of 10 years (<30)
Par Value - $1,000
Semiannual Interest payments (coupon
payments)
Quotes – percentage of par
2-29
Figure 2.3
Listing of Treasury Issues
現在以1/128為最小變動單,
ASKED YLD
但報價採十進位方式4捨5入至小數點第4位
MATURITY COUPON BID ASKED CHG TO MATURITY
15-Feb-2015 4.000 101.6250 101.6328 -0.0078 0.046
15-May-2017 4.500 109.3516 109.3750 0.0234 0.927
15-Feb-2020 3.625 108.8906 108.9375 0.0938 1.880
15-Feb-2025 7.625 146.1719 146.2500 0.2031 2.541
15-May-2030 6.250 141.3125 141.3906 0.2734 2.934
舊報價以1/32為最小變動單位以”:”區隔
15-Feb-2036 4.500 121.3359 121.4141 0.2578 3.121
15-Aug-2044 3.125 95.9297 95.9922 0.1875 3.338
Source: Compiled from data from The Wall Street Journal Online, September 16, 2014.
2-30
Inflation-Protected Treasury Bonds
Major issuers
– Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB)
– Federal National Mortgage Association
(FNMA, Fannie Mae;房利美)
– Government National Mortgage Association
(GNMA, Ginnie Mae)
– Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
(FHLMC, Freddie Mac;房地美)
2-32
Cash Flows in a Mortgage
Pass-Through Security
2-33
International Bonds
企業從事境外融資借款而發行的國際債券
(international bond)分為二種:
– 歐式債券(Eurobonds): 以發行公司所屬國家幣
別計價的債券
Eurodollar Bonds: 美國公司在美國境外發行以美金
計價的債券
Euroyen Bons: 日本公司在日本境外發行以日元計
價的債券
– 海外債券(Foreign bonds): 公司在海外發行以
當地幣別計價的債券
洋基債券、武士債券
2-34
Municipal Bonds
2-35
Figure 2.4
Outstanding Tax-Exempt Debt
3,000
2,500
2,000
$ billion
1,500
1,000
500
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Industrial revenue bonds General obligation
2-36
Municipal Bond Yields
2-37
Municipal Bond Yields
Let t equal the investor’s marginal tax
bracket
Let r equal the before-tax return on the
taxable bond and rm denote the municipal
bond rate.
If r(1 - t ) > rm then the taxable bond gives
a higher return; otherwise, the municipal
bond is preferred.
2-38
Equivalent Taxable Yields
Tax-Exempt Yield
Marginal Tax Rate 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
20% 1.25% 2.50% 3.75% 5.00% 6.25%
30 1.43 2.86 4.29 5.71 7.14
40 1.67 3.33 5.00 6.67 8.33
50 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00
2-39
Figure 2.5 Yield Ratio:
Tax-Exempt to Taxable Bonds
1.0
0.9
0.8
Ratio
0.7
0.6
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2-40
Corporate Bonds
投資等級債券:Baa(Moody穆迪)或BBB(S&P標準普爾及Fitch 惠譽)(含)以上
2-42
Mortgages and
Mortgage-backed Securities(MBS)
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are called
pass-throughs because the cash flows produced
by homeowners paying off their mortgages are
passed through to investors
Such securities are developed in the 1970s to
help liquidity of financial institutions (房貸證券化)
Proportional ownership of a pool or a specified
obligation secured by a pool
Market has experienced very high rates of
growth
2-43
Mortgages and
Mortgage-backed Securities
2-44
Mortgages and
Mortgage-backed Securities
Eventually, “Private-label” issuers
securitized large amounts of subprime
mortgages, made to financially weak
borrowers.
Finally, Fannie and Freddie were allowed
and even encouraged to buy subprime
mortgage pools.
September, 2008: Fannie and Freddie got
taken over by the federal government.
2-45
Figure 2.6
Mortgage-Backed Securities Outstanding
9,000
8,000
5,000
$ billion
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2-46
Figure 2.9
The U.S. Fixed-Income Market
Values in $ billion
2-47
2.3 EQUITY SECURITIES
2-48
Equity Markets
2-49
Equity Markets
-- Common stock
Common stock (Equity Security)
– Residual claim
Cash flows to common stock?
In the event of bankruptcy, what will stockholders
receive?
– Limited liability
What is the maximum loss on a stock purchase?
2-50
Equity Markets
-- Preferred stock
Preferred stock
– Fixed dividends: limited gains, non-voting
– Tax treatment
Preferred & common dividends are not tax
deductible to the issuing firm
Corporate tax exclusion on 70% dividends earned
2-51
Equity Markets
-- Depository Receipts
Depository Receipts
– American Depository Receipts (ADRs) also
called American Depository Shares (ADSs)
are certificates traded in the U.S. that
represent ownership in a foreign security.
2-52
Stock Market Listings
2-53
Capital Gains and Dividend
Yields
Capital Gains and Dividend Yields
– You buy a share of stock for $50, hold it for one
year, collect a $1.00 dividend and sell the stock for
$54. What were your dividend yield, capital gain yield
and total return? (Ignore taxes)
– Dividend yield: = Dividend / Pbuy
$1.00 / $50 = 2%
– Capital gain yield: = (Psell – Pbuy)/ Pbuy
($54 - $50) / $50 = 8%
– Total return: = Dividend yield + Capital gain yield
2% + 8% = 10%
2-54
2.4 STOCK AND BOND MARKET
INDEXES
2-55
Stock and Bond Indexes
Uses
Track average returns
Comparing performance of managers
Base of derivatives
2-57
Constructing market indices
a) What stocks to include
b) Weighting schemes
Price weighted average assumes buy 1 share each
stock and invest cash and dividends proportionately
based on stocks’ prices.
Value weighted average considers not only price but
also the number of outstanding shares:
– dollars ($) invested in each stock are proportional
to market value of each stock
Equal weighted average considers not only price but
also the number of shares:
– invest same amount of dollars ($) in each stock
regardless of market value of stock
2-58
Stock Price0 Quantity0 Price1 Quantity1
A $ 10 40 $ 15 40
B 50 80 25 160
C 140 50 150 50
Other problems
– similar % change movements in higher price stocks
cause proportionately larger changes in the index
2-61
Case 1 Case 2
Stock P0 Q0 P1 Q1 P1 Q1
A $ 10 40 $ 12 40 $ 10 40
B 100 80 100 80 100 80
C 50 200 50 200 60 200
Case 1 VW = 100.43
Case 1 EW = 106.67
d) Why do the two differ?
Case 2: 20% change in price of large cap firm.
2-62
Examples of Indexes - USA
2-63
Comparative Performance of
Several Stock Market Indices
2-65
Examples of Other Indexes
International Indexes:
Nikkei 225 & Nikkei 300 (日本)
FTSE (Financial Times of London)
Dax (德國), Hang Seng (香港), TSX (加拿大
Toronto)
Region and Country Indexes
– EAFE, Far East, United Kingdom
Bond Indexes:
Indexes are mainly from Merrill Lynch, Barclays
(formerly Lehman Brothers), and Salomon Smith
Barney (of Citigroup)
2-66
2.5 DERIVATIVE MARKETS
2-67
Derivative Securities
2-68
Options
Call: Right to buy underlying asset at the
strike or exercise price on or before specified
expiration date.
– Value of calls decrease as strike price increases;
– 到期Call價格=max(股價-執行價, 0)
Put: Right to sell underlying asset at the
strike or exercise price on or before specified
expiration date.
– Value of puts increase with strike price increases;
– 到期Put價格=max(執行價-股價, 0)
Value of both calls and puts increase with
time until expiration. (時間價值)
2-69
Figure 2.9 Stock Options on Apple
新
發
行
或
交
易
稀
少
2-73
Using the Stock Options on Apple
Look at Figure 2.9 to answer the following
questions:
1. How does the exercise or strike price affect the
value of a call option? A put option? Why?
2-74
Futures Contracts
In a futures contract:
• The purchaser of the contract (the long) agrees to
purchase the specified quantity of the underlying
commodity at contract expiration (delivery or maturity
date) at the price (futures price) set in the contract.
(Long position)
2-76
Figure 2.11 Futures Contracts
Contract size: 5000 bushels of corn
Price quote for Jul 11 contract: 672’2 translates to
a price of 672 + 2/8 = 672.25 cents per bushel or
$6.7225 = (672.25/100) per bushel.
If you bought the Jul 11 contract what would you
be agreeing to do?
– Purchase 5000 bushels of corn in July for 5,000 x
$6.7225 = $33,612.5
What would be your obligation if you sold the Jul
11 contract?
The profit for the long position is $1,000 =
5,000*(6.9225-6.7225) if the corn price is
$6.9225/per bushel at maturity.
2-77
Derivative Securities