Nirma University
Institute of Technology
Department of Mathematics
Minor in Applied Mathematics
Probabilistic Models
Problem Set I
1. An item is produced in large numbers. The machine is known to produce 3%
defectives. A quality control inspector is examining the items by taking them at a
random. What is the probability that at least 6 items are to be examined in order to
get 3 defectives?
Ans.
3 defective can happen in 3 or more trials, Probability of getting defective
(success):0.03, Here r =3
P(at least 6 items are to be examined in order to get 3 defective)=
P(3)+ P(4)+…=1-{P(0)+P(1)+P(2)}
P(at least 6 items are to be examined in order to get 3 defective)=0.9997
2. The probability of a student A going on time to school is 85%. What is the
probability that the student goes on time for the third time for first 7 days of
school?
Ans.
Here, p=probability of success that a student going to school on
time=0.85, r=3, x=4
3. An unbiased die is cast until 1 appear. What is the probability that it must be cast
more than four times?
Ans.
Here p=1/6q=5/6, P(X=x)={(5/6)^x}*{(1/6},x=0,1,2,3,…
4. A safety engineer feels that 35% of all industrial accidents in her plant are caused
by failure of employees to follow instructions. She decides to look at the accident
reports (selected randomly and replaced in the pile after reading) until she finds
one that shows an accident caused by failure of employees to follow instructions.
On average, how many reports would the safety engineer expect to look at until
she finds a report showing an accident caused by employee failure to follow
instructions? What is the probability that the safety engineer will have to examine
at least three reports until she finds a report showing an accident caused by
employee failure to follow instructions?
Ans. p = 0.35 and q = 0.65, P(X=x)=(0.65)^x*(0.35)
(a) Mean=q/p=1.8571
(b)at least three attempt (i.e. first attempt fails, second
attempts fail, on third onwards may get the success)
P(X>2)=P(3)+P(4)+…=(0.65)^3*(0.35)+(0.65)^4*(0.35)+…
=(0.65)^3*(0.35)*[1/(1-0.65)]=(0.65)^3
5. An oil company conducts a geological study that indicates that an exploratory oil
well should have a 20% chance of striking oil. What is the probability that the first
strike comes on the third well drilled?
Ans.
Here, p=0.20, r=1 and x=2
P(X=2) = (0.8)^2 * (0.2) =0.128
6. You are running a weight loss experiment and need 5 people willing to participate
who have never tried a weight loss program before. If the probability that a
randomly selected person has never tried a weight loss regimen is 0.2, what is the
probability you must ask 15 people before you can find 5 people who have never
tried losing weight?
Ans.
Here, p=0.20, r=5 and x=10
7. A medical researcher is recruiting 20 subjects for a study on an experimental
drug for COVID-19. Each person that she interviews has a 60% chance of being
eligible to participate in the study. What is the probability that she will have to
interview more than 40 people?
Ans.
Here r = 20, p = 0.6, x= 40
P(at least 40 items are to be examined in order to get 20 defective)=
P(20)+ P(21)+…=1-{P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+… P(19)}=?