Reliability of a Distribution System
Expected to provide Continuos Electric Supply and Quality Electric Service
to their customers at a reasonable rate by making economical use of available
system and apparatus.
Continuous Electric Supply
Meeting the customers’ electric energy requirements as demanded, consistency
with the safety of personnel and equipment.
Quality Electric Supply
Involves meeting the customer demand within specified voltage and frequency
limits and so on.
Causes of failures
Interruptions are caused either by component failure or external faults
Experience shows that faults are due natural factors and other attributable
activities
Natural factors: Lightning, Wind, Ice, Animals etc.
Others : Defective materials, equipment failures, human action such as
vehicle hitting, felling trees, excavation etc.
Distribution of faults due to different components failures
Component No. of Faults per year % of components faults
Overhead Lines 289 61.4
Cables 67 14.2
Switchgears 56 11.9
Transformers 59 12.5
Total 471 100
Cost of reliability
Used to rate review and request for rate increase.
Useful planning tools in determining the capital expenditure to
improve the service reliability
Can be defined as that when the sum of the supply cost plus the
cost of interruption are at minimum
Minimize f(x) Supply cost cost of Interruptions
Subject to level of reliabilit y Specified Value (Ex : 98.5)
Cost of Reliability
Total Cost
Cost
Optimum Cost Point
Cost of Investment
Cost of Interruptions
Optimum Reliability 100%
System Reliability
Outage:
The state of component when it is not available to perform its
intended function due to some event directly associated with
that component.
Forced Outage:
An outage caused by emergency conditions directly associated
with a component that require the component to be taken out of
Service immediately, either automatically or as soon as
Switching operations can be performed.
Schedule outage:
An outage that results when a component is deliberately taken
out of service as a selected time.
Partial outage:
A component state where the capacity of the component to
Perform its function is reduced but not completely eliminated.
Evaluation of Reliability
Evaluated in terms of
1.0 Outage rate (Frequency of interruption)
2.0 The cost of outage.
Depends on
Reliability of individual items of equipment,
Circuit length, loading network configuration, load profile
available transfer capacity etc.
Meaning of reliability will be changing recent days.
Important issue in now a days.
Start
Reliability Planning
Procedure Definition of
failure
Establishment of reliability
measurement indices
Data for reliability Modeling of
analysis system reliability
Reliability Detailed design of
measurements components, tendering,
met? testing etc
Alternative
System
solution
specification met
End
Evaluation Techniques
The technique required to analyze a distribution system depends on the type of
system being considered and depth of the analysis needed.
The basic evaluation techniques will be discussed in this course and these
techniques completely satisfactory for the analysis of radial distribution system.
A radial distribution system consist of a set of series components including lines,
cables, disconnectors, bus bars etc.
The figure below shows a simple radial distribution system with three load points.
A customer connected any load point of such a system requires all components
between himself and the supply point to be operating.
A B C
Supply
X X X
L3
L1 L2
Reliability Concept and mathematics
Probability of failure of a given component as a function of time
P(T t ) F (t ) t 0
T= a random variable representing the failure time
F(t)=Probability that component will fail by time t
Here F(t) is the failure distribution function known as the unreliability function.
Reliability Function R(t)
R(t ) 1 F (t )
P(T t )
After some mathematical derivation R(t) can be written as
t
R(t ) e = Failure rate= Failures/Unit time
Bathtub Curve
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3
Failure Rate (t )
Wearout
Debugging Useful Life
Operating Life
Period 1 – Failure occurs due to manufacturing errors
Period 2 – Random Failures
Period 3 – Aging failures
The Expected Life E(T)
E (T ) tf (t )dt
0
For constant failures
1
E (T ) e dt t
0
If the system is not renewed through maintenance and repairs but simply replaced
By a good system, then E(T) is the useful life defined as mean time to fail (MTTF)
1
MTTF m
If the system is renewed through maintenance and repairs then E(T) is the
useful life defined as mean time between failures (MTBF)
MTBF T m r r = Mean time to Repair
Mean Time to Repair - MTTR
MTTR r
1 = Mean Repair Time
For two- state, MTTF and MTTR can be reasonably estimated as
n
m i mi=observed time to failure for ith cycle
MTTF m i 1 n= total number of cycles
n
n
r i
ri=observed time to repair for ith cycle
MTTR r i 1
n= total number of cycles
n
MTBF MTTF MTTR
UP
Two State Model
1 1 UP
r m
m1 r1 m2 r2 m3 r3
Down T1 T2 T3
T mr
1
1
Mean Cycle Time
T
1
f
Mean Failure Frequency T
m MTTF MTTF
Availability (A) A
T MTBF MTTF MTTR
U 1 A 1
Unavailability (U)
Series System
Un-repairable components in Series
m1, r1 m2, r2
R1, Q1 R2, Q2
In order to perform desired function, both component must operate successfully.
Assuming independent operation
Rsys P( E1 E2 ) P( E1 ).P( E2 )
2
Rsys R1.R2 Ri
i 1
Ei – Event that component I operates successfully
Ri-Reliability of component i
n
This can be approximated to Rsys 1 qi
qi-probability of component I failure i 1
Repairable components in Series
m1, r1 m2, r2
R1, Q1 R2, Q2
1 r 1 2 r 2 sys 1 2
It can be proved that rsys and
12
Repairable components in Parallel
m1, r1
R1, Q1
m2, r2
R2, Q2
It can be proved that
r 1 r2 12 (r1 r2 )
r sys sys
r1 r 2 (1 1 r 1 2 r 2 )
Example:
Figure shows a 4km long distribution express feeder which is used to provide
Electricity to a load center located in the down town area of a City from a substation.
Approximately 1km of the feeder has been built underground due to aesthetic
consideration in the vicinity of down town area while the rest of the feeder is OH. The
UG feeder has two termination points. On the average, two faults per km for the OH
Section and one fault per km for UG section of the feeder have been recorded in the
Last 10 years. The annual cable termination fault rate is given as 0.3% per cable
Termination. Further, based on past experience, it is known that on the average
repair time for the OH section, UG section and each cable termination are 3, 28
and 3 hours respectively. Using the given information, determine the following
(1) Total annual rate of the feeder
(2) Average annual fault restoration time of the feeder in hours
(3) Unavailability of the feeder
(4) Availability of the feeder.
3km 1km
Overhead Line UG Section
Sub
Additional Interruption Indices
The reliability indices calculated using classical technique are the three
primary ones of average failure rate, average outage duration and
average annual outage time or unavailability.
Although the three primary indices are fundamentally important, they don’t
always give a complete representation of the system behaviour.
That is the indices can be calculated irrespective of whether one customer
or 100 customers were connected to the load.
In order to reflect the severity or significance of a system outage, additional
reliability indices can be and frequently are evaluated.
They are called customer-oriented reliability indices.
SAIFI – System Average Interruption Frequency Index
Number of Customers Interrupted x Number of Interruption i Ni
SAIFI
Total Number of customers Ni
Customer-oriented reliability indices.
CAIFI – Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index
Total Number of Customer Interruption i Ni
CAIFI
Number of Customers affected N afi
SAIDI – System Average Interruption Duration Index
(Durarion of Outage x Number of customers affected) NiU i
SAIDI
Total number of customers Ni
CAIDI = Customer Average Interruption Duration Index
Customer Interruption Durations U i Ni
CAIDI
Total Number of Customer Interrrrrruption i Ni
Load and Energy Oriented indices…
One of the important parameter required in the evaluation of load-oriented
and energy oriented indices is the average load at each load-point.
La eL p L p Peakload , e Load factor
Total Energy Demanded in period of interest Ed
e
Priod of interest t
Lp
La
Ed
Energy not Supplied ( ENS) LaiUi
LaiU i
Average Energy not Supplied AENS
Ni
Load and Energy Oriented indices…
Average Customer Curtailmen t Index (ACCI)
LaiU i
ACCI
Total number of customers affected
System Performances
The above described customer and load oriented induces are very useful
for assessing the severity of system failures in future reliability prediction
analysis.
In recent time, these are probably used for calculating present reliability
level. These are important in three areas.
(1) It establishes the chronological changes in system performances and
helps to identify weak areas and need for reinforcements.
(2) It establishes existing indices which serves as a guides for acceptable
values in future reliability assessments.
(3) It enables previous prediction to be compared with actual operating
experiences.
Example 1: Consider a system having six load buses. The number of
customers and average load connected to these bus bars are shown below.
Load point Number of customers Ni Average load, La
connected (kW)
1 1000 5000
2 800 3600
3 600 2800
4 800 3400
5 500 2400
6 300 1800
Total 4000 19000
Case Load No. of Load Duration of Customer ENS
point customers curtailed interruption hours (kWh)
affected disconnected (kW) (hours) curtailed
1 2 800 3600 3 2400 10800
3 600 2800 3 1800 8400
2 6 300 1800 2 600 3600
3 3 600 2800 1 600 2800
4 5 500 2400 1.5 750 3600
6 300 1800 1.5 450 2700
Total 3100 15200 6600 31900
Consider fist row: Customer hours curtailed = 800*3 =2400
Energy not supplied (ENS) = 3600*3 = 10800 kWh
Let us assume that four system failures occur in one calendar year. Then indices
Can be calculated as below.
i Ni 3100
SAIFI 0.775 int /customer
Ni 4000
i Ni 3100
CAIFI 1.409 int./cust. affect.
N afi 2200
NiU i 6600
SAIDI 1.65 hrs/customer
Ni 4000
U i Ni 6600
CAIDI 2.13 hrs/cust. ints.
i Ni 3100
ENS LaiUi 31900kWh 31.9 MWh
LaiU i 31900
AENS 7.975 kWh/customer
i
N 4000
LaiU i 31900
ACCI 14.5 kWh/cust. affected
N afi 2200
Example 2: System prediction
Consider the system given below and the primary reliability indices shown in the
Table1. Average load demand in each bus is given in table 2.
A B C
Supply
X X X
L3
L1 L2
Load point Number of Average
Load point i ri Customers load (kW)
L1 0.20 6.0 L1 200 1000
L2 0.10 5.0 L2 150 700
L3 0.15 8.0 L3 100 400
Total 450 2100
Table 1
Table 2
i Ni 200 * 0.2 150 * 0.3 100 * 0.45 130
SAIFI 0.289 ints./customer
Ni 450 450
NiU i 200 *1.2 150 *1.7 100 * 2.9 785
SAIDI 1.74 hrs/customer
Ni 450 450
U i Ni 785
CAIDI 6.04 hrs/cust. ints.
i Ni 130
ENS LaiUi 1000 *1.2 700 *1.7 400 * 2.9 3550 kWh/year
LaiU i 3550
AENS 7.89 kWh/customer
i
N 450
Application to Radial System
Many distribution systems are designed and constructed as single
phase feeder systems.
There are also many other systems which are constructed as mesh but
operated as radial systems using normally open switches.
The technique described above can be used to evaluate the three
primary indices and additional customer and load oriented indices.
Consider the system given below. The failure rates of the main feeder
sections is 0.1 f/km yr and it is for lateral distributors is 0.2 f/km yr. using
these data and the line lengths given in following table, calculate the
reliability indices.
Supply 1 2 3 4
X
a b c d
A
B C D
Component Length (km) (f/yr) r (hrs)
1 2 0.2 4
2 1 0.1 4
3 3 0.3 4
4 2 0.2 4
a 1 0.2 2
b 3 0.6 2
c 2 0.4 2
d 1 0.2 2
Solution
If all component failures are short circuits then each failure will cause the
Main breaker to operate. If there are no points at which the system can be
Isolated then each failure must be repaired before the breaker can be
reclosed.
Load point A Load point B
Component (f/yr) r(hrs) U(hrs/yr) Component (f/yr) r(hrs) U(hrs/yr)
1 0.2 4 0.8 1 0.2 4 0.8
2 0.1 4 0.4 2 0.1 4 0.4
3 0.3 4 1.2 3 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 4 0.8 4 0.2 4 0.8
a 0.2 2 0.4 a 0.2 2 0.4
b 0.6 2 1.2 b 0.6 2 1.2
c 0.4 2 0.8 c 0.4 2 0.8
d 0.2 2 0.4 d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 2.2 2.73 6.0 Total 2.2 2.73 6.0
Similar expression is obtained for load point C too.
Load point Customers Average load (kW)
A 1000 5000
B 800 4000
C 700 3000
D 500 2000
i Ni
SAIFI 2.2 int /customer
Ni
NiU i
SAIDI 6.0 hrs/customer
i
N
U i Ni
CAIDI 2.73 hrs/cust. ints.
i Ni
ENS LaiUi 6 *14 84 MWh/Yr
LaiU i
AENS 84 *1000 / 3000 28 kWh/customer
i
N
Effect of lateral distribution protection
Suppose now that the lateral are connected with fuses as shown in the
Following figure. In this case short circuit in a lateral distributor causes
Its appropriate fuse to blow.
Supply 1 2 3 4
X
a b c d
A
B C D
Load point A Load point B
Component (f/yr) r(hrs) U(hrs/yr) Component (f/yr) r(hrs) U(hrs/yr)
1 0.2 4 0.8 1 0.2 4 0.8
2 0.1 4 0.4 2 0.1 4 0.4
3 0.3 4 1.2 3 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 4 0.8 4 0.2 4 0.8
a 0.2 2 0.4 b 0.6 2 1.2
Total 1.0 3.6 3.6 Total 1.4 3.14 4.4
Load point C Load point D
Component (f/yr) r(hrs) U(hrs/yr) Component (f/yr) r(hrs) U(hrs/yr)
1 0.2 4 0.8 1 0.2 4 0.8
2 0.1 4 0.4 2 0.1 4 0.4
3 0.3 4 1.2 3 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 4 0.8 4 0.2 4 0.8
c 0.4 2 0.8 d 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.2 3.33 4.0 Total 1.0 3.6 3.6
i Ni 1000 *1 800 *1.4 700 *1.2 500 *1
SAIFI 1.15 int /customer
Ni 3000
NiU i 1000 * 3.6 800 * 4.4 700 * 4 500 * 3.6
SAIDI 3.91 hrs/customer
Ni 3000
U i Ni 11720
CAIDI 3.39 hrs/cust. ints.
i Ni 3460
ENS LaiUi 5 * 3.6 4 * 4.4 3 * 4 2 * 3.6 54.8MWh/Yr
LaiU i
AENS 54800 / 3000 18.3 kWh/customer
Ni
Effect of disconnect
Now consider case where line section 2,3 and 4 are connected with a
Sectionalizer. Let the total isolation time be 0.5 hours. That is opening
Of the sectionalizer and switching time of the breaker for the reclosing
operation.
Supply 1 2 3 4
X
a b c d
A
B C D
Load point A Load point B
Component (f/yr) r(hrs) U(hrs/yr) Component (f/yr) r(hrs) U(hrs/yr)
1 0.2 4.0 0.8 1 0.2 4.0 0.8
2 0.1 0.5 0.05 2 0.1 4.0 0.40
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 3 0.3 0.5 0.15
4 0.2 0.5 0.10 4 0.2 0.5 0.10
a 0.2 2.0 0.40 b 0.6 2.0 1.20
Total 1.0 1.5 1.5 Total 1.4 1.89 2.65
Load point C Load point D
Component (f/yr) r(hrs) U(hrs/yr) Component (f/yr) r(hrs) U(hrs/yr)
1 0.2 4.0 0.80 1 0.2 4.0 0.80
2 0.1 4.0 0.40 2 0.1 4.0 0.40
3 0.3 4.0 1.20 3 0.3 4.0 1.20
4 0.2 0.5 0.10 4 0.2 4.0 0.80
c 0.4 2.0 0.80 d 0.2 2.0 0.40
Total 1.2 2.75 3.3 Total 1.0 3.6 3.6
SAIFI
N i i
1000 *1 800 *1.4 700 *1.2 500 *1
1.15 int /customer
N i 3000
SAIDI
NU i i
1000 *1.5 800 * 2.65 700 * 3.3 500 * 3.6
2.58 hrs/customer
N i 3000
CAIDI
UN i i
7730
2.23 hrs/cust. ints.
N i i 3460
ENS LaiU i 5 *1.5 4 * 2.65 3 * 3.3 2 * 3.6 35.2MWh/Yr
Effect of fuse fail
In some cases the fuse will not operate. Hence the back up protection should
Operate. In order to, let us take that fuse will operate with 0.9 probability. Thus
Failure of fuse at b,c and d will affect the indices on load point A.
Failure rate for A when the fuse is fails at b = 0*0.9+0.6*0.1 =0.06
Reliability indices if the fuses operate with a probability of 0.9
Load pt A Load pt B Load pt C Load pt D
Component r U r U r U r U
Failure (f/yr) (hours) (f/yr) (hours) (hours/yr) (f/yr) (hours) (hours/yr) (f/yr) (hours) (hours/yr)
(hours/yr)
Section
1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 4 0.8
2 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 4 0.4
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 4 1.2
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8
Distributor
a 0.2 2 0.4 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01
b 0.06 0.5 0.03 0.6 2 0.2 0.06 0.5 0.03 0.06 0.5 0.03
c 0.04 0.5 0.02 0.04 0.5 0.02 0.4 2 0.8 0.04 0.5 0.02
d 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.02 0.5 0.01 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.12 1.39 1.56 1.48 1.82 2.69 1.3 2.58 3.35 1.12 3.27 3.66
SAIFI=1.26, SAIDI=2.63, CAIDI=2.09 and ENS=35.9
Reliability indices with restricted load transfers
Load pt A Load pt B Load pt C Load pt D
Component r U r U r U r U
Failure (f/yr) (hours) (f/yr) (hours) (hours/yr) (f/yr) (hours) (hours/yr) (f/yr) (hours) (hours/yr)
(hours/yr)
Section
1 0.2 4 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.38 0.2 1.9 0.38 0.2 1.9 0.38
2 0.1 0.5 0.05 0.1 4 0.4 0.1 1.9 0.19 0.1 1.9 0.19
3 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.3 4 1.2 0.3 1.9 0.57
4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 4 0.8
Distributor
A 0.2 2 0.4
B 0.6 2 1.2
C 0.4 2 0.8
D 0.2 2 0.4
Total 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.59 2.23 1.2 2.23 2.67 1.0 2.34 2.34