National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Space Weather Math

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Space Weather Math

Mathematical problems
featuring space weather
applications

Dr. Sten Odenwald

Catholic University of America / NASA
[Link]@[Link]

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This collection of activities is based on a weekly series of space science

problems distributed to thousands of teachers during the 2004-2011 school year.
They were intended for students looking for additional challenges in the math and
physical science curriculum in grades 7 through 12. The problems were created to
be authentic glimpses of modern science and engineering issues, often involving
actual research data.
The problems were designed to be ‘one-pagers’ with a Teacher’s Guide and
Answer Key as a second page. This compact form was deemed very popular by
participating teachers.

Acknowledgments:
We would like to thank Dr. Eric Christian for a careful reading of this resource
for accuracy, and for his many valuable comments. Ms. Elaine Lewis, co-Director of
the NASA Space Weather Action Center, was instrumental in writing the 'How to
use this resource' essay to help teachers better integrate the problems into
classroom situations. We also thank Dr. Rita Karl, Director of Education for the
Challenger Center for Space Science Education ([Link]), who
provided guidance for how this resource could be improved and extended so that
students running space activity simulations could better incorporate space weather
issues into their simulated space journeys.

Image Credits:
Front and Back Covers: ISS Astronaut (NASA); Images of the sun (NASA/ESA
SOHO LASCO and EIT); Transformer damage (John Kappenman, MetaTech Corp);
Aurora borealis (The Morrison Family: Eielson AFB, Alaska); Back: Solar Wind (E.
Endo and National Geophysical Data Center); Interior illustrations: Page xii:1947
Sunspot (National Solar Observatory); Geomagnetic Field (Tamas Gambosi: U.
Michigan). Page xxvii Van Allen Belts (NASA/Cluster); Page. xxix; GPS Satellite
(USAF); Page xxx Space Weather Impacts (NOAA); Page xxxii Power lines and
aircraft (Stock Photos); Page xxxiii Climate variability diagram (NOAA); Page xxxiv
Telstar satellite (NASA and AT&T Bell Labs). All other images and figures in this
book are reproduced courtesy of NASA and NASA missions and as noted in the
credits on each page where appropriate.

Created under an Education and Public Outreach grant,

NNH08CD59C
administered through the
NASA Science Mission Directorate.

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgments i
Table of Contents iii
Alignment with Standards vi
Mathematics Topic Matrix vii
How to Use this Resource xi

Introduction Summary and Big Picture xii

Space Weather – Scientific Research xiii
Space Weather – The Major Elements xviii
Space Weather – Human Impacts xxix
Space Weather - In the News! xxxv

1.0 The Sun Grade

Sunspots SDO Reveals Details on the Surface of the Sun 6-8 1
Close-up of a Sunspot by Hinode 6-8 2
Solar Surface Details with Swedish Vacuum Telescope 6-8 3
Monster Sunspots 6-8 4
The Magnetic Classification of Sunspots 3-5 5
Using Hinode to Estimate How Fast the Sun Spins 6-8 6
Seeing Solar Storms in STEREO 9-12 7
Hinode and TRACE Study Loopy Sunspots 6-8 8
Sunspot Cycles 3-5 9
The Sunspot Cycle -Endings and beginnings 6-8 10
Sunspot Size and the Sunspot Cycle 6-8 11
Sunspot Cycles Since 1900 6-8 12
Are You Ready for Cycle 24? 6-8 13

Solar Flares Solar Flares 3-5 14

Sunspots and Solar Flares 6-8 15
Hinode Sees Mysterious Solar Microflares 6-8 16
RHESSI Observes Super-fast Solar Flares 9-12 17
Solar Flares and SPEs 6-8 18
Solar Proton Events and the 23rd Sunspot Cycle 6-8 19
Estimating SPE Arrival Times 9-12 20

CMEs Measuring Speed in the Universe 9-12 21

SDO Measures the Speed of an Eruptive Prominence 9-12 22
STEREO Watches the Sun Kick up a Storm 9-12 23
Measuring the Speed of a Solar Tsunami 6-8 24
Hinode Sees Moving Magnetic Filaments 6-8 25
The Speed of a CME 6-8 26
Solar Storm Speeds 3-5 27

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STEREO Sees Comet Encke's Tail Disrupted by a CME 6-8 28

Interplanetary Shock Wave 6-8 29
CMEs: Kinetic Energy and Mass 9-12 30
Estimating Halo CME Speeds 6-8 31
Estimating CME Arrival Times 6-8 32
The Halo CME Speed Distribution 6-8 33
Predicting CME Direction of Motion 6-8 34
2.0 The Earth
Magnetosphere A Birds-eye Look at the Sun-Earth System 6-8 35
The Bow Shock 9-12 36
The Van Allen Belts and Geomagnetic Indices 6-8 37

Aurora Drawing an Aurora from a Narrative 3-5 38

How Big is an Aurora? 3-5 39
How High is an Aurora? 6-8 40
Aurora Power 3-5 41
Aurora Power Comparisons 6-8 42
The North and South Magnetic Poles 6-8 43

Magnetic Magnetic Storms 6-8 44

Storms Magnetic Storms and the Kp Index 6-8 45
Measuring the Solar Wind Magnetic Field with ACE 6-8 46
Geomagnetic Storms and Ground Currents 6-8 47
The dB/dt Index and Ground Current Intensity 6-8 48
THEMIS: A magnetic case of 'What came first?' 6-8 49

3.0 Impacts
Astronaut Radiation Unit Conversions 6-8 50
Health A Study of Astronaut Radiation Dosages 9-12 51
A Hot Time On Mars 9-12 52
The Deadly Van Allen Belts? 9-12 53
Solar Proton Radiation 6-8 54
Radiation Dosage and Space Exploration 6-8 55
Dosage Curves for Solar Proton Events 6-8 56
How to Calculate Shielding Thickness 9-12 57

Satellite Data Corruption by High Energy Particles 6-8 58

Operations Computer Memory Glitches 6-8 59
A Bit of Satellite Math 9-12 60
ISS Orbit Altitude Changes 3-5 61
The ISS Orbit Decay 6-8 62
Solar Activity and Satellite Power Declines 6-8 63

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Satellite Power Loss - ACE 6-8 64

Satellite Power Loss - WIND 6-8 65
Satellite Power Loss - Polar 6-8 66
Satellite Power Loss - Hubble Space Telescope 6-8 67
Satellite Power Loss - IUE 6-8 68
Satellite Drag and the Hubble Space Telescope 6-8 69
The Hubble Space Telescope Re-entry 9-12 70
Sunspots and Satellite Reentry 6-8 71
Cosmic Rays and Satellite Anomalies 9-12 72
Satellite Failures and Outages in Cycle 23 6-8 73

Terrestrial Airline Travel and Solar Storms 6-8 74

Impacts Who Turned out the Lights? 6-8 75
The 1859 Superstorm 3-5 76

4.0 Forecasts Solar Storm Timeline-Narrative 3-5 77

Solar Storm Timeline-Tabular 6-8 78
What Causes a Solar Storm? 6-8 79
Studying Solar Storms with Venn Diagrams 3-5 80
Solar Storms: Fractions and Percentages 6-8 81
Do Fast CMEs Produce Intense SPES? 6-8 82
Solar Storms: Sequences and Probabilities 6-8 83
Solar Storms: Probabilities for multiple events 6-8 84
Space Weather Indicators 3-5 85
Solar Flares and the Sunspot Cycle 6-8 86
CME Speed Changes During the Sunspot Cycle 6-8 87
How often do solar storms occur? 6-8 88
CMEs and Radio Storms 6-8 89
An Historical Study of Intense SPEs 6-8 90
SPEs and the Sunspot Cycle 6-8 91
Cosmic Rays and the Sunspot Cycle 6-8 92
ACE: Cosmic Rays in the Inner Solar System 6-8 93
Active Region Evolution and Energy Release 6-8 94
M-Flares as Predictors of X-Flares 6-8 95
Solar Proton Event Energy Release Curves 6-8 96

Appendix-A Guides for Predicting Space Weather A.1

Appendix-B A Gallery of Space Weather Imagery B.1
Appendix-C Web Resources in Space Weather Studies C.1
Appendix-D A Catalog of Known Impacts: 1850 to 2004 D.1
Appendix-E Selected Newspaper Reprints: 1850 to 1923 E.1
Appendix-F Additional Resources Featuring Space Weather F.1

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Alignment with Standards

AAAS Project:2061 Benchmarks

(9-12) - Mathematical modeling aids in technological design by simulating how a

proposed system might behave.

2B/H1 ---- Mathematics provides a precise language to describe objects and events
and the relationships among them. In addition, mathematics provides tools for solving
problems, analyzing data, and making logical arguments.

2B/H3 ----- Much of the work of mathematicians involves a modeling cycle, consisting
of three steps: (1) using abstractions to represent things or ideas, (2) manipulating the
abstractions according to some logical rules, and (3) checking how well the results
match the original things or ideas. The actual thinking need not follow this order. 2C/H2

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Mathematics Topic Matrix

Topic Problem Numbers

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1
Inquiry
XX X X
Technology,
rulers
X X XX X X XX XXXXX XX X
Numbers,
patterns,
X XXX XX
percentages
Averages
XX XX X
Time, distance,
speed
XX X XX X X X X X X X X X
Areas and
volumes
X
Scale
drawings
X X XX XX X XX X X X X
Geometry
XX
Probability,
odds
Scientific
Notation
X X
Unit
Conversions
X X XX X X XX XXXXXXXXX X
Fractions
Graph or Table
Analysis
XX XXXX X X XX X X X
Pie Graphs
X
Linear
Equations
Rates & Slopes
Solving for X
X
Evaluating Fns
X X X
Modeling
X
Trigonometry
X
Logarithms

Calculus

Measurement
X X XX X
Algebra
X X
Pythagorean
Theorem
X

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Mathematics Topic Matrix

Topic Problem Numbers

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
Inquiry
X X X
Technology,
rulers
XX X
Numbers,
patterns,
X X X XXXX X XXX
percentages
Averages
X
Time, distance,
speed
XX X XX XX XXX X
Areas and
volumes
X
Scale
drawings
XX X
Geometry
X X
Probability,
odds
X X X
Scientific
Notation
X X
Unit
Conversions
X XX X X XXXX
Fractions
Graph or Table
Analysis
XX XX XX XX XX XXXXXXXX XXX
Pie Graphs

Linear
Equations
Rates & Slopes
Solving for X
X
Evaluating Fns
Modeling

Trigonometry

Logarithms

Calculus

Measurement

Algebra

Pythagorean
Theorem

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Mathematics Topic Matrix

Topic Problem Numbers

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3
Inquiry
X XXXXX
Technology,
rulers
Numbers,
patterns,
X X XX X X X XX X X XX X X X XXX X
percentages
Averages
X X X XXX
Time, distance,
speed
X XX X X X XXXX
Areas and
volumes
Scale
drawings
Geometry

Probability,
odds
X X X XX X X X X X X X X X X X
Scientific
Notation
Unit
Conversions
X
Fractions
Graph or Table
Analysis
X X XX X X X X X X X X XXXXXXXX
Pie Graphs

Linear
Equations
X XX X X X
Rates & Slopes
X XX X X X
Solving for X
X XX X X X
Evaluating Fns
Modeling

Trigonometry

Logarithms

Calculus

Measurement

Algebra

Pythagorean
Theorem

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Mathematics Topic Matrix

Topic Problem Numbers

9 9 9
4 5 6
Inquiry
Technology,
rulers
Numbers,
patterns,
percentages
Averages
XX
Time, distance,
speed
Areas and
volumes
Scale
drawings
Geometry

Probability,
odds
XX
Scientific
Notation
Unit
Conversions
Fractions
Graph or Table
Analysis
XX X
Pie Graphs

Linear
Equations
Rates & Slopes
Solving for X

Evaluating Fns
Modeling

Trigonometry

Logarithms

Calculus

Measurement

Algebra

Pythagorean
Theorem

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How to Use this Resource

Teachers continue to look for ways to make math meaningful by providing
students with problems and examples demonstrating its applications in everyday life.
Space Weather Math offers math applications through one of the strongest motivators-the
mysteries of our Sun.

Space Weather Math is designed to be used as a supplement for teaching

mathematical topics and will work very well as a supplement with the Space Weather
Action Center, as students track a solar storm from the Sun until it impacts our
magnetosphere. [Link] The problems can be used to enhance
understanding of the mathematical concept, or as a good assessment of student mastery.

In modeling phenomena, students should encounter a variety of common kinds of

relationships depicted in graphs (direct proportions, inverses, accelerating and saturating
curves, and maximums and minimums) and therefore develop the habit of entertaining
these possibilities when two quantities might be related. None of these terms need be
used at first, however. Although the various forms of energy appear very different, each
can be measured in a way that makes it possible to keep track of how much of one form is
converted into another. Whenever the amount of energy in one place diminishes the
amount in other places or forms increases by the same amount. 4E/H1* In any system of
atoms or molecules, the statistical odds are that the atoms or molecules will end up with
less order than they originally had and that the thermal energy will be spread out more
evenly. The amount of order in a system may stay the same or increase, but only if the
surrounding environment becomes even less ordered. The total amount of order in the
universe always tends to decrease. 4E/H2*(Benchmark, Physical Setting- Energy
Transformation)

Technological problems and advances often create a demand for new scientific
knowledge, and new technologies make it possible for scientists to extend their research in
new ways or to undertake entirely new lines of research. The very availability of new
technology itself often sparks scientific advances. 3A/H1* Mathematics, creativity, logic,
and originality are all needed to improve technology. 3A/H2 Technology usually affects
society more directly than science does because technology solves practical problems and
serves human needs (and also creates new problems and needs). 3A/H3a*(Benchmarks,
Nature of Technology-Technology and Science)

An integrated classroom technique provides a challenge in math and science

classrooms, through a more intricate method for using Space Weather Math. Read the
scenario that follows:

Ms. Smith teaches 3 middle school classes that are a combination of math and science.
She has seen an increased interest in the Sun as it becomes more active heading to
maximum. She decided to use the Space Weather Action Center to have students
analyzing data and the Space Weather Math book to use the images to teach scale. The
students were very excited as they watched the Sun each day in the space Weather
Media Viewer and learned the math skills effectively through the problems in the Space
Weather Math book.

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We live next to a very stormy star, the Sun,
Introduction but you would hardly notice anything unusual most
of the time. Its constant sunshine hides
spectacular changes. But unless you lived in the
Arctic and Antarctic regions of Earth, you would
have no clue. Only the dazzling glow of the
Northern Lights suggests that invisible forces are
clashing in space. These forces may cause all kinds
of problems for us, and our expensive technology.
It doesn't take long for a 'solar storm' to get
here, either. Once a storm arrives, it can cause
changes in Earth's magnetic field, which lead to
the displays of the aurora which humans have
marveled at for thousands of years. Aurora light up
the sky with billions of watts of power and cover
millions of square kilometers. Why does all this
happen? (Photo- Auroral curtain1/18/2005 by The Morrisons -
[Link])

Space Weather It has to do with Earth's magnetic field and

how it is disturbed by solar storms and the solar
wind. The wind carries its own magnetic field with
it, and travels at speeds of millions of kilometers
per hour. Scientists keep track of this
interplanetary storminess using numbers that
follow its ups and downs just like meteorologists
follow a storm's speed, pressure and humidity.
Periods of increased and decreased solar activity
come and go every 11 years. Solar flares also have
their own story to tell just like flashes of lightning
in a bad storm. (Photo - 1947 Sunspot - NSO)

Scientists have to keep track of many

Models and Forecasting different kinds of phenomena in the universe, both
big and small. That's why they have invented a way
to write very big and very small numbers using
'scientific notation. They also have to master how
to think in three-dimensions and how to use
mathematical models. Once they find the right
models, they can use them to make better
predictions of when the next solar storm will arrive
here at Earth, and what it will do when it gets here!
(Model of Geomagnetic field - University of Michigan)

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Space Weather – Scientific Research

Many of the details about how the sun works, and its interaction with our
planet, are hidden from view by Earth’s atmosphere. This atmosphere blocks
important clues about the sun that are present in the ultraviolet and at shorter
wavelengths of the solar spectrum. That’s why satellites operating in space have
become so important in helping scientists understand the sun in detail.

For thousands of years we have enjoyed the constant flow of sunlight that
heats our world, but in fact the sun is an inconstant star. According to
measurements by satellites such as SMM and SORCE, sunspots and other
active regions on the solar surface can change the amount of sunlight falling on
Earth by up to 0.3%. The ultraviolet radiation from the sun also follows the
sunspot cycle, being measurably more intense during sunspot maximum than
during minimum. Ultraviolet radiation is an important energy source for Earth’s
upper atmosphere. Thanks to careful satellite studies over that last 30 years,
scientists have detected changes in ozone concentrations, and intriguing
correlations in other lower atmosphere and troposphere systems .These all imply
that even small changes on the sun can have large effects in Earth’s atmosphere
and climate systems. Satellite technology has made it possible to study these
changes in detail from day to day, and year to year.

Believe it or not, satellites have made it possible to use ‘sunquakes’ to

study the interior of the sun the same way geologists use Earthquakes to explore
the interior of Earth. This new science is called helioseismology. Solar physicists
using the SOHO satellite measure changes in the surface of the sun, and use
them to determine the location of solar storms on the far-side of the sun. The
shock waves from these storms travel at different speeds and directions as they
travel through the sun .This information can be mathematically modeled to create
pictures of the interior of the sun that match up with predictions made decades
ago. This also means that far-side active regions can be detected long before

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they rotate onto the Earth-facing hemisphere. Helioseismology has also

uncovered flows of plasma thousands of kilometers wide that look like terrestrial
‘jet streams’ in our atmosphere. These solar jet streams appear to be important
in regulating the 11-year solar activity cycle itself.

In terms of the amount of energy released over a period of time, solar

flares are the most intense storms in the solar system. In 30 minutes or less, they
generate enough energy to power Earth’s electrical systems for thousands of
years. Astronomers thought flares only got hot enough to generate x-ray light –
requiring temperatures of 50,000 C. Satellites launched at the beginning of the
Space Age soon discovered that some of the most violent flares create gamma-
rays. This means nuclear reactions take place, not only inside the core of the
sun, but on its surface too.

Why do solar flares happen? Astronomers have been studying this

question since the 1930’s. Thanks to the data from satellite observatories such
as OSO, RHESSI and Yohkoh, we now think that solar flares happen when
powerful magnetic fields on the sun become tangled and reform into new shapes.
Astronomers call this process ‘magnetic reconnection’. A loop of solar magnetism
forms an arch above the solar surface. The hottest gas exists at the top of the
arch where magnetic fields are being pulled apart and reshaped into simpler
forms. This transformation releases energy, causing gases to flow, triggering the
flare event. Since the 1950’s physicists have created detailed models of these
changes and flows, but only recently have satellites been able to measure
changes on the sun and actually test these theories.

The corona of the sun has been studied during total solar eclipses since
the 1830’s .During eclipses, the extended atmosphere of the sun can be easily
seen. Since the 1960’s astronomers have wondered why the corona has a
temperature of millions of degrees Centigrade while the surface is only 6000 C.
Thanks to satellite studies such as TRACE and the work done by Skylab
astronauts, we now see the corona as a system of hundreds or thousands of

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magnetic arcades and loops. Innumerable bright points of x-ray energy called
micro-flares, also dot the solar surface, lasting for a few hours. Micro-flares and
coronal magnetic loops are the key ingredients that work together to keep the
corona so hot. Magnetic energy, when released, can heat solar gases to high
temperatures. This ‘plasma’ then flows into the loops of magnetism that act like
invisible bottles, keeping the corona close to the sun in most places, and very
hot.

Small-scale magnetic changes in flares and micro-flares also create large

surface fields, as small magnetic regions are broken apart and re-knit into larger
magnetic systems. The largest structures are often seen by satellites such as
TRACE, SOHO and Yohkoh in the form of spectacular prominences, and arches.
During solar flares, these magnetic arches are loaded with cool gas and become
unstable .Like an inflated balloon that is released, they can be ejected from the
sun and pass outwards into interplanetary space at speeds in excess of 200
km/sec. Originally called Coronal Transients during earlier studies by SMM and
Skylab, they are now commonly referred to as Coronal Mass Ejections or CMEs.
CMEs can be tracked by the SOHO, WIND and ACE satellites from the solar
surface to the distance of the Earth. These solar storms, when they arrive at
Earth, can cause satellite damage and electrical power outages, so scientists try
to develop means for predicting when they will happen and how long they will
take to reach Earth.

The constant heating of the solar corona leads to its expansion into space
as the solar wind. This wind, and its changes in density, speed and magnetism,
can be measured by spacecraft such as ACE and Ulysses from a variety of
locations in the solar system revealing complex structure due to shocks and
reconnecting regions. The wind coming from the sun’s poles has a low-density
and high speed .The wind from the sun’s equatorial zones has a higher density
and slower speed. Apollo astronauts and modern space probes such as Genesis
have taken samples of this wind and it seems to be rich in the kinds of atoms that

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the sun is made from: hydrogen and helium, as well as many other heavy
elements, but also elements like iron that are launched into the wind during solar
flares.

The Earth is a frequent recipient of impacting magnetic clouds and solar

flare energy, especially at times during the sunspot cycle when solar activity is
the most frequent. For over two centuries, these solar storm conditions have
been the cause of many adverse technological impacts. This has led to a
dramatic increase in interest to understand the Earth’s environment in space and
how this environment is affected by solar storms.

Earth’s magnetic field is not rigid, but can be easily distorted into a comet-
like shape during solar CME passages observed by the SOHO and ACE
satellites. These distortions release huge amounts of magnetic energy called
Geomagnetic Storms. The aurora we see in the Arctic and Antarctic Regions are
caused by these severe magnetic storms and can be studied by the TIMED,
Polar and IMAGE satellites. During a magnetic storm, Earth’s magnetic field
evolves through a sequence of shapes that have been observed by satellites
such as GEOTAIL. These changes are mirrored in the sequence of changes
seen during auroral events, which have been observed for centuries. The exact
sequence of events leading up to geomagnetic storms, and the transformation of
magnetic energy was studied by the THEMIS satellites, which confirmed the
sequence of events in time.

The extension of the upper atmosphere into space has been investigated,
and found to be a very dynamic system that is directly affected by solar activity.
Fountains of ionized oxygen atoms detected by the Polar and IMAGE satellites
are ejected into space during severe solar storms. Moments later, a circulating
river of these atoms, called the ring current’ flows around Earth’s equator for
several hours before vanishing as the storm subsides. The inner edge of the ring

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current observed by the IMAGE satellites is located ~12,000 km above Earth

where it interacts in a dramatic way with the upper atmosphere.

Most textbooks that discuss the van Allen Belts show it as a pair of nested
‘donuts’ filled with high-energy electrons and protons. The belts are separated by
a so-called 'slot region' devoid of high-energy electrons. During geomagnetic
storms, The Sampex and IMAGE satellites can see that the outer radiation belts
move inward towards Earth, causing the size of the slot region to decrease. The
IMAGE satellite has discovered that this region can also be evacuated through
the agency of low-frequency radio waves generated by thunderstorms. Although
the origin of the Van Allen belt particles remains something of a mystery even
today, it is unlikely that solar particles are the major source. Instead, the source
may be Earth itself, combined with some as yet unknown process that amplifies
their energies.

Understanding the Sun-Earth system has become more critical as

satellites and human activity in space have become more common. The
changing solar, interplanetary and geospace environment is now referred to as
‘space weather’, and like more conventional terrestrial storms, causes billions of
dollars of damage to satellite operations, and ground-based electrical systems.
During the previous solar activity cycle (1996-2006), many new technologies
were developed to anticipate and study solar and geomagnetic storm events in a
coordinated program of ‘cradle to grave’ international investigations provided by
the International Solar and Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) program. New NASA
spacecraft, such as SDO, STEREO and Hinode will continue these investigations
during the next activity cycle (2006-2017). Meanwhile, although research
satellites provide tremendous assistance to commercial satellite operators and
power grid managers in anticipating severe solar storms by up to 72 hours, their
purpose is research-directed. What is needed is a constellation of satellites in
space, analogous to conventional weather satellites operated by NOAA, to
provide dedicated sentinels for commercial space weather forecasters.

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Space Weather – The Major Elements

Solar Flares
A solar flare on the sun may last only an hour but is capable of emitting
huge amounts of high-energy particles as well as electromagnetic radiation such
as ultraviolet and x-rays. The total energy release can be measured in thousands
or millions of equivalent hydrogen bombs going off all at once.

Flares are caused by magnetic fields near sunspots that have become
tangled, and over the course of a few hours, release the stored magnetic energy.
Most of this energy causes local
heating of the plasma to
temperatures as high as 50 million
degrees C. This release of energy
produces an intense burst of
electromagnetic radiation,
especially at x-ray energies, but
also spanning much of the
electromagnetic spectrum from
radio to gamma rays as well.
Traveling at the speed of light, X-
rays can make the journey from the
sun to Earth in just under 9 minutes. Accompanying the flare event, particles
such as electrons, protons or low-mass atomic nuclei can be accelerated to very
high energies, with speeds approaching that of light. If directed towards Earth,
these solar energetic particles (SEPs) can make the trip in under an hour. It is
usually possible to anticipate what sunspot regions on the sun can produce these
flares, but the exact time is not predictable to within a day of the event itself.

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Under favorable conditions of Earth-sun geometry, the x-rays can reach

Earth and cause heating of the upper atmosphere. As the upper atmosphere
expands, satellites in low Earth orbit below 500 km will experience increased
drag, causing premature reentry if not corrected. This is generally not a problem
for manned flight with destinations beyond Earth, but is a continuing problem for
NASA assets such as the International Space Station (ISS). The human
consequences of these x-rays are generally modest. Spacesuits and the
bulkheads and walls of spacecraft provide excellent shielding so that little excess
radiation is biologically absorbed by the x-rays and other electromagnetic
components to solar flares.

Solar flares are commonly classified by their X-ray brightness. The graph
below shows the x-ray emission from the sun recorded by the GOES satellite,
with the solar flares indicated. The ‘class’ of the flare is noted on the right-hand
edge of the graph and is demarcated by a 10x increase in x-ray intensity with
each class change upwards. B-class flares are about 10x as intense as A-class
flares, while a C-class flare is 10x as intense as a B-class flare and so on.

Because of their
number, M-class flares
can be more of a
problem than the X-
class flares. Over
16,000 flares were
produced on the sun
during the last sunspot
cycle; Only about 100
of these were X-class
flares.

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Note how quickly the x-ray intensity increases as the flare reaches its peak. It is
not possible to predict in real-time whether a given increase will lead to an X-
class event or a less risky C or M-class flare. Accurate classification can only be
done after the entire event has completed, which usually takes a few hours after
the peak is detected.

Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) are clouds of plasma and magnetic fields
launched from the sun. Most are not directed towards Earth but can nevertheless
be viewed leaving the solar vicinity
by instruments on the SOHO
satellite. They may be caused by
magnetic fields in the upper
atmosphere of the sun that have
become unstable, perhaps
because of some powerful
disturbance in the solar
photosphere or chromosphere
such as a large solar flare eruption,
or a shockwave from a distant
explosion that happens to pass by.
The SOHO satellite detected 1,600 CMEs during the last sunspot cycle between
1996-2008. Many of these were expanding away from Earth because they were
produced on the far-side of the sun. About 500 were ejected towards Earth
during this 11-year period, mostly during the sunspot maximum years. Most of
these Earth-directed CMEs led to minor geomagnetic disturbances because their
magnetic fields were oriented in the same direction as Earth’s field in the
northern hemisphere. 50% of these ‘halo’ CMEs had favorable ‘southward-
directed’ fields and produced many spectacular aurora and geomagnetic storms.
CMEs take up to 4 days to arrive at Earth from the time they are spotted in

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images such as the one above. The fastest CMEs can make the journey in as
little as 15 hours!

Geomagnetic Storms
Arriving at Earth, CMEs compress Earth’s magnetic field on the sun-side,
and trigger the Northern Lights. They also cause ‘geomagnetic storms’ which are
disturbances in the direction and strength of Earth’s magnetic field. Depending
on the scale of the CME and its
speed, geomagnetic storms can last
for hours or entire days at a time.
The severity of the event is usually
measured by several geophysical
indices, Kp and AA, which directly
measure the magnitude of the
magnetic changes. The Kp index can
vary from 1-2 during mild ‘stormy’
days, to 8-9 for the most intense
magnetic storms. The image shows a geomagnetic storm causing an auroral
‘oval’ over the North Pole. The NPOESS satellite that created this image can
measure how active the auroras are at the present time, but cannot be used to
predict conditions days or
weeks in the future.

This bar graph of Kp index

shows a magnetic storm
(red) that occurred on April
7, 2000. The index
indicated how much
change has occurred in
the Earth’s magnetic field

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during the previous 3-hours based on 20 observatory measurements on the

ground across the globe. Note how quickly conditions changed from a minor
Kp=3 condition to a major storm state with Kp=6-8.

Intense geomagnetic and solar

storms are rare during times of
sunspot minimum, but become more
common around sunspot maximum
and the years immediately following
sunspot maximum. They are also
more common during the equinox
months of March and September.
Although not all solar flares lead to the
ejection of CMEs, the most powerful
‘X-class’ flares often correlate with
large CME events. Consequently, the
detection of a strong X-flare may be
followed within hours of the ejection of
a CME. Moreover, some CMEs produce intense bursts of high-energy protons
that are accelerated by the compression of the CME magnetic fields. These
‘solar proton events’ or SPEs are similar to the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP)
events produced by solar flares, but can achieve higher particle energies, leading
to enhanced electronic anomalies in computers, and harm to astronauts.

The CME compression of Earth's magnetic field can cause currents to flow
in the ionosphere that also induce currents in the ground, affecting telegraph
systems and electrical power grids worldwide. In space, geomagnetic storms
create the conditions that lead to enhanced charging of satellite and spacecraft
surfaces. This can led to degradation of solar panels and discharges that lead to
false-commands, data corruption and other electronic anomalies. The SPEs that
sometimes occur during the initial phases of CMEs can cause satellite

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anomalies, electronic ‘false commands’ and data corruption. There are no direct
human health effects from CMEs, however the SPEs generated by some CMEs
each Earth within an hour and cause increased radiation exposure to astronauts,
even when shielded inside spacecraft.

CMEs and their associated phenomena can affect electrical systems and
cause false-commands and data corruption. Electrical problems from the induced
currents only occur after the CME has arrived at Earth. False-commands and
other electrical anomalies in satellite electronics can occur soon after the CME is
launched from the sun as the SPEs reach Earth. SPEs are hazardous to
astronauts, even when they are operating within Earth's magnetic field. Some
CMEs may even be lethal if an astronaut is on EVA. Under normal spacecraft
shielding conditions, SPEs slightly elevate the accumulated radiation dosages of
astronauts. Since exposure and long-term medical conditions are proportional to
accumulated dose over a lifetime, astronauts should always seek out additional
shielding when a SPE is in progress.

Solar Proton Events

Solar Proton Events (SPEs),
and other energetic particle showers
are high energy particles that can
penetrate spacesuits and spacecraft
and lead to excessive radiation
dosages that, over the long term, can
accumulate to become a significant
hazard. Generally, if a solar active
region (e.g. sunspot region) is
displaying conditions that may lead to a solar flare, a hightened state of alert for
potentially ensuing SEPs is warranted. They can be caused by intense solar

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flares, but are more commonly related to CMEs withing which intense shock
waves can accelerate particles to high energy soon after ejection by the sun.

The image from the SOHO satellite shows a Solar Proton Event causing
‘snow’ on an imaging sensor. The SEP particles entered the sensor and
corrupted the data in thousands of pixels of the image causing the streaks and
white points. This condition faded after a few minutes once the CME ejection
near the sun began to abate.

Space walks or other

EVAs should probably not be
conducted during these states.
It is common for ISS
astronauts to move operations
into more heavily shielded
areas of the station for the few
hours that an actual flare is in
progress, and when SEP
particles may be expected to
arrive. The arrival of the x-rays
is a good harbinger for the
SEPs.

Depending on the energy spectrum of the SEPs, they can penetrate many
kinds of shielding, and even at low levels, cause computer operations
‘anomalies’. These can include data corruption, or ‘false commands’ which have
to be caught and countermanded by satellite or mission operators. At times,
computers have to be ‘rebooted’ or suffer operating system anomalies that can
lead to lockups. Generally, low-energy SEPs can be shielded and reduced to low
levels, but high-energy SEPs generate secondary particles within the shielding
itself leading to additional problems.

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Solar flare forecasts (e.g. NOAA) usually state conditions as ‘80%

probability of a flare within the next 24-hours’. When solar flare conditions are
forecast, Missions can proceed normally, but astronauts should seek additional
shielding opportunities if available, and be alert for any false-commands or data
irregularities caused by SEP events during the 1-5 hour period following the
actual x-ray flare event.

Coronal Holes
Magnetic fields near the sun sometimes open up into interplanetary space
so that charged particles can travel from the sun and deep into interplanetary
space. These regions are called coronal holes and are the source of high-speed
solar wind streams (HSWS). The pressure of the plasma flowing out of a coronal
hole can trigger geomagnetic
storms.
As for CME-triggered
geomagnetic storms, HSWSs
can also produce the Northern
Lights, but are not as effective
in causing significant electrical
disruptions.

Cosmic Rays
These high-energy particles, mostly electrons, protons and low-mass
nuclei come from several sources, distant interstellar space beyond our solar
system, the heliopause beyond the orbit of Pluto, and the sun itself. Although
Earth's magnetic field shields the terrestrial space environment from most of
these particles, they are especially common in interplanetary space. During

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sunspot maximum, the magnetic field of the sun and the solar wind are relatively
extended through out the inner solar system, so cosmic ray flows are reduced
out to the orbit of mars. During sunspot minimum, the solar field is less extended
and so the intensity of cosmic rays in the Earth-mars region is enhanced.
Cosmic rays penetrate most forms of shielding, and so remain a hazard to
technology and human health.

Like SEPs and

SPEs associated with
solar flares and CMEs,
cosmic rays penetrate
satellite and spacecraft
walls and can cause
electrical upsets and
‘glitches’ in computer
systems. These events can cause false-commands and corrupt stored data.
Unlike the short-term effects of SEPs and SPEs, cosmic rays are a nearly
constant source of background radiation that leads to large accumulated lifetime
radiation dosages proportional to the number of days that astronauts are away
from Earth and its protecting magnetic field environment.

Cosmic rays contribute to a steady,, daily dose of environmental radiation

that is nearly independent of shielding. There is a slight reduction in exposure
during times of sunspot maximum conditions provided that astronauts do not
leave the inner solar system inside the asteroid belt. The anti-correlation of
intensity with solar cycle is the only means of predicting the intensity variation
over time. No ‘storm’ events correlated with cosmic rays are known to exist.

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Radiation Belts and Trapped Particles

These are found only in the Earth’s environment inside its magnetic field in
space. They are not an issue for interplanetary or lunar travel. Although
prolonged, unshielded exposure to these high-energy particle belts can be lethal,
generally, manned spacecraft
only take a small part of an
hour to traverse these belts,
and in most cases, trajectories
avoid the belts entirely.

Satellites that orbit in

the belts (GPS) experience
frequent glitches in operation, and accumulated radiation aging of satellite
systems and electronics. Manned space craft spend so little time traversing the
Belts that there is no radiation impact to astronauts unless they are conducting
EVAs, which is a very unlikely scenario.

Human Impacts to Astronauts

Lunar Missions: The transit phase is short enough that cosmic rays are
not a significant risk factor. It is expected that the 2-3 day journey will not be
scheduled during a period when a known solar active region is producing flares
or CMEs. If scheduling does not permit launching during a quiet period,
magnetically complex regions on the sun will need to be monitored and the
NOAA/SEC space weather indices monitored for indications that a solar flare
event has a heightened probability. If a halo CME has been launched, and/or an
x-ray flare of class M or X detected, astronauts must prepare for the arrival of
high-energy particles within the hour. They must return from EVAs and seek out
shielded regions in the spacecraft for a duration that could last several hours.
Radiation monitors will indicate when the storm event has passed. During the
event, computers and other critical digital electronics must also be monitored for

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signs of data corruption and false-commands. For long-duration stays on the

moon, shielding must be available for astronauts either in a landed spacecraft, or
beneath lunar regolith in a habitation module.

Mars and Comet Missions: These are long-duration journeys outside

Earth’s magnetic field. Cosmic rays are a constant background contributing to a
steady increase in human dosages. More access to CME plasma will occur as
the orbits traverse a lager volume of space through which CMEs are known to
travel. As the spacecraft distance from the Earth increases, astronauts will be
less and less able to rely on the vantage points provided by Earth-based satellite
observations of the sun (SOHO etc) to help forecast upcoming events unless
they bring similar imaging technology with them. Increasingly, astronauts will not
have advanced knowledge of incoming radiation events being imaged and
measured by distant Earth satellites.

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Space Weather and Human Impacts

Human life is linked to the behavior of the Sun. Changes in the Sun's long-
term brightness cause ice ages, and the 11-year solar cycle of activity causes
powerful flares and coronal mass ejections that impact Earth, disrupt
telecommunications and
navigation, threaten
astronauts, damage satellites,
and disable electric power
grids. As society becomes
increasingly dependent on
space-based technologies,
humankind's vulnerability to
space weather becomes more
apparent, and the need to
understand and mitigate these effects becomes more urgent.

NASA's objective is to understand and predict the causes of space

weather by studying the Sun, the heliosphere, and planetary environments as a
single connected system. Research into the nature of solar activity and its effects
on the solar system will help safeguard the journeys of robotic and human
explorers. (NASA Strategic Plan 2006, sub-goal 3B)

The earliest investigations of how solar storms affect our technology

began in the mid-1800's. The appearance of large sunspots was found to be
correlated with intense aurora, and with telegraph outages. Since then, scientists
have explored and theorized about the many ways in which solar activity can
cause communications outages, electrical power blackouts and excess radiation
exposure to astronauts and even commercial airline passengers and flight crews.

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Space weather research spans both the scientific research community,

who are trying to understand the Sun-
Earth system, and engineering
community who are trying to
understand how specific technological
systems are affected. Because solar
flares can increase radiation exposure
to astronauts, NASA has been
investigating space weather and its
mitigation since the beginning of the
Space Age.

Most scientists working in this complex

area are supported by a variety of
research grants from NASA and from
the National Science Foundation. The research is routinely published in the open
literature. The Department of Defense and many commercial industries (e.g.
satellite and electric power) also have research programs to forecast space
weather and its impacts, however, this research is generally classified and not
openly published.

Since the first astronaut entered space, NASA has paid close attention to
the problem of radiation exposure. Since 1960, over 400 astronauts and
cosmonauts have been exposed to the space environment from as little as 90
minutes to over 200 days.

The NASA 'Longitudinal Study' has followed the medical histories of each
astronaut in minute detail to uncover any signs that their brief exposures have
led to increased risks for a variety of known radiation-related, medical conditions.

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Looking farther ahead to years-

long expeditions to Mars, NASA
scientists and engineers are
working to overcome the daunting
challenges of minimizing astronaut
radiation dosages, and returning
the explorers safely to Earth, with
no long-term medical problems.

Since scientists first experimented

with radioactive elements and
explored the mysteries of cosmic
rays, the topic of 'radiation' has been a popular science fiction tool to create
monsters. In reality, humans live and work in an environment awash in many
forms of natural radiation, and have done so for millions of years. Were it not for
this 'background radiation', it is likely that evolution itself would grind to a stop
without this relentless mechanism for mutating genes.

Radiation comes in two basic forms: Electromagnetic, and particulate.

Each of these forms can be further classified as 'ionizing' or 'non-ionizing'
depending on whether the radiation carries enough energy to strip electrons from
their atomic imprisonment. Each of these forms has its own complex behavior as
it penetrates or is absorbed by matter, whether that matter is in the form of
organic material or inert electronic circuitry.

NASA is interested in all forms of radiation that are capable of affecting

astronauts and the organic systems they depend on. NASA is also interested in
radiation which can alter the operations of electronic circuits which control
spacecraft and spacecraft systems.

Solar storms have affected ground-based communications and electrical systems

since the time that these systems became commonplace. During the 1800's,

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telegraph systems were frequently disrupted by severe magnetic storms, such as

the spectacular events of August 28 and September 2, 1859.

During the 20th Century, solar flares

regularly caused so much interference
that global shortwave communications
outages were a commonplace nuisance
during the 1930's - 1950's.

Once elaborate electrical power grids

were installed spanning entire
continents, they too fell victim to solar
storms, such as the major electrical
blackouts in Quebec during March, 13,
1989 and southern Sweden on October
29, 2003.

In order to operate economically, modern passenger jets fly at altitudes

above 30,000 feet where the atmosphere is less dense providing less friction and
greater fuel economy. With little atmosphere to shield them, passenger jets
receive substantially higher dosages of cosmic rays and other forms of natural
background radiation. This is
especially true along the increasingly
popular polar routes from New York
to destinations in Eastern Asia such
as Tokyo and Beijing. Although
ordinary passengers need not worry
about the slight increases from
occasional solar flares, airline crews
are coming under increasing scrutiny because of their constant exposure. Some
airline companies such as United and American Airlines now take expensive
precautionary steps to move flight paths to lower altitudes during solar flares.

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The Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) was a period of time when few

sunspots were observed for nearly 70 years, despite careful telescopic studies by
multiple observers. This time also corresponded to the European 'Little Ice Age'
which brought severe, cold winters to otherwise moderate climates. Scientists
now believe that there is a direct connection between sunspot activity and the
heating of the atmosphere, which
can cause long-term climate
changes.

The output of the Sun can

vary by up to two tenths of a percent
over the 11-year solar cycle.
Temporary decreases of up to one-
half percent have been observed.
Atmospheric scientists say that this variation is significant and that it can modify
climate over time. Plant growth has been shown to vary over the 11-year sunspot
and 22-year magnetic cycles of the Sun, as evidenced in tree-ring records.

During solar proton events,

many more energetic particles
reach Earth's middle atmosphere.
There they cause molecular
ionization, creating chemicals that
destroy atmospheric ozone and
allow increased amounts of
harmful solar ultraviolet radiation
to reach Earth's surface. A solar
proton event in 1982 resulted in a temporary 70% decrease in ozone densities.
During a large solar storm, a portion of the upper stratosphere in the Polar
Regions can lose up to 20 percent of its ozone and cool as much as 3°C, an
effect that can last for several weeks.

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Solar flares and other forms of solar activity have been known to cause
problems for satellites and space technology since the dawn of the Space Age.
The first satellite to fail from
a space weather event was
the Telstar communications
satellite launched in July,
1962. A few months later it
suffered a malfunction when
an electrical component built
up a large charge due to
constant exposure to the
space environment. Technicians powered-down the satellite and then re-started
it, which dissipated the extra charge, and the satellite was returned to service.
Since then, our current network of over 950 satellites have been affected by solar
storms on a regular basis. Most of these effects are brief and barely noticed by
ground-based satellite operators. Others have caused complete satellite failure.

Engineers are constantly testing prospective satellite components to make

certain that they can withstand the most severe solar storms. The result of this
effort has been new generations of satellites that operate for 10 to 15 years or
longer, with only occasional episodes of anomalous behavior.

Space Math [Link]

SDO Reveals Details on the Surface of the Sun 1

On April 21, 2010 NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory released its much-
awaited ‘First Light’ images of the sun. The image above shows a full-disk, multi-
wavelength, extreme ultraviolet image of the sun taken by SDO on March 30,
2010. False colors trace different gas temperatures. Black indicates very low
temperatures near 10,000 K close to the solar surface (photosphere). Reds are
relatively cool plasma (a gas consisting of atoms stripped of some of their
electrons) heated to 60,000 Kelvin (100,000 F); blues, greens and white are
hotter plasma with temperatures greater than 1 million Kelvin (2,000,000 F).

Problem 1 – The radius of the sun is 690,000 kilometers. Using a millimeter ruler,
what is the scale of this image in kilometers/millimeter?

Problem 2 – What are the smallest features you can find on this image, and how
large are they in kilometers, and in comparison to Earth if the radius of Earth is
6378 kilometers?

Problem 3 – Where is the coolest gas (coronal holes), and the hottest gas (micro
flares), located in this image?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 1
Problem 1 – The radius of the sun is 690,000 kilometers. Using a millimeter ruler,
what is the scale of these images in kilometers/millimeter?

Answer: The diameter of the Sun is 98 millimeters, so the scale is 1,380,000 km/98
mm = 14,000 km/mm.

Problem 2 – What are the smallest features you can find on this image, and how large
are they in kilometers, and in comparison to Earth if the radius of Earth is 6378
kilometers?

Answer: Students should see numerous bright points speckling the surface, the
smallest of these are about 0.5 mm across or 7,000 km. This is slightly larger
than ½ the diameter of Earth.

Problem 3 – Where is the coolest gas (coronal holes), and the hottest gas (micro
flares), located in this image?

Answer: There are large irregular blotches all across the disk of the sun that are
dark blue-black. These are regions where there is little of the hot coronal gas
and only the ‘cold’ photosphere can be seen. The hottest gas seems to reside in
the corona, and in the very small point-like ‘microflare’ regions that are generally
no larger than the size of Earth.

Note: Microflares were first observed, clearly, by the Hinode satellite between 2007-
2009. Some solar physicists believe that these microflares, which erupt violently, are
ejecting hot plasma that eventually ends up in the corona to replenish it. Because the
corona never disappears, these microflares happen all the time no matter what part of
the sunspot cycle is occurring.

Space Math [Link]

 Close-up of a Sunspot by Hinode 2

After a successful launch on September 22, 2006 the Hinode solar observatory
caught a glimpse of a large sunspot on November 4, 2006. An instrument called the Solar
Optical Telescope (SOT) captured this image, showing sunspot details on the solar surface.

Problem 1 - Based on the distance between the arrow points, what is the scale of the image
on the right in units of kilometers per millimeter?

Problem 2 - What is the size of the smallest detail you can see in the image?

Problem 3 - Compared to familiar things on the surface of Earth, how big would the smallest
feature in the solar image be?

Problem 4 - The gold-colored, textured surface is the photosphere of the sun. The texturing
is produced by heated gas that is flowing up to the surface from the hot interior of the sun.
The convecting gases form cells, called granulations, at the surface, with upwelling gas
flowing from the center of each cell, outwards to the cell boundary, where it cools and flows
back down to deeper layers. What is the average size of a granulation cell within the square?

Problem 5 - Measure several granulation cells at different distances from the sunspot, and
plot the average size you get versus distance from the spot center. Do granulation cells have
about the same size near the sunspot, or do they tend to become larger or smaller as you
approach the sunspot?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 2

Problem 1 - From the 40 millimeter length of the 50,000 km arrow marker, the scale of the
image is 50,000 km/40 mm = 1250 kilometers per millimeter

Problem 2 - Depending on the copy quality, the smallest detail is about 0.5 millimeters or
0.5 x 1250 = 625 kilometers across but details that are 1 or 2 mm across are also
acceptable.

Problem 3 - Similar features on Earth would be continents like Greenland (1,800 km) or
England (700 km).

Problem 4 - Measure about 5 cells to get: 1.5 mm, 1.0 mm, 0.8mm, 1.2mm and 1.4 mm. The
average is about 1.2 mm, so the average size is (1.2) x 1250km = 1,500 km.

Problem 5 - Students should measure about 5 granulation cells in three groups; Group 1
should be far from the center of the spot. Group 3 should be as close to the outer, tan-
colored, 'penumbra' of the spot as possible, and Group 2 should be about half-way in
between Group 1 and 3. The average granulation sizes do not change significantly.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Surface Details with the Swedish Vacuum Telescope 3
The sun is our nearest star. From Earth we can see its surface in great detail. The images
below were taken with the 1-meter Swedish Vacuum Telescope on the island of La Palma, by
astronomers at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The image to the right is a view of sunspots
on July 15, 2002. The enlarged view to the left shows never-before-seen details near the edge of the
largest spot. Use a millimeter ruler, and the fact that the dimensions of the left image are 19,300 km x
29,500 km, to determine the scale of the photograph, and then answer the questions. See the arrows
below to identify the various solar features mentioned in the questions.

Problem 1 - What is the scale

of the image in km/mm?

Problem 2 – What is the

smallest feature you can see
in the image?

Problem 3 – What is the

average size of a solar
granulation region?

Problem 4 – How long and

wide are the Dark Filaments?

Problem 5 – How large are

the Bright Spots?

Problem 6 – Draw a circle

centered on this picture that is
the size of Earth (radius =
6,378 km). How big are the
features you measured
compared to familiar Earth
features?

Bright Spot
Granulation Dark Filament
Boundary
Solar Granulation

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 3

Problem 1 - What is the scale of the image in km/mm? Answer: the image is
about 108mm x 164mm so the scale is 19300/108 = 179 km/mm.

Problem 2 – What is the smallest feature you can see in the image? Answer:
Students should be able to find features, such as the Granulation Boundaries,
that are only 0.5 mm across, or 0.5 x 179 = 90 km across.

Problem 3 – What is the average size of a solar granulation region? Answer:

Students should measure several of the granulation regions. They are easier to
see if you hold the image at arms length. Typical sizes are about 5 mm so that
5 x 179 is about 900 km across.

Problem 4 – How long and wide are the Dark Filaments? Answer: Students
should average together several measurements. Typical dimensions will be
about 20mm x 2mm or 3,600 km long and about 360 km wide.

Problem 5– How large are the Bright Spots? Answer: Students should average
several measurements and obtain values near 1 mm, for a size of about 180 km
across.

Problem 6 – Draw a circle centered on this picture that is the size of Earth
(radius = 6,378 km). How big are the features you measured compared to
familiar Earth features? Answer: See below.

Granulation Region – Size of a large US

state.

Bright Spot – Size of a small US state or

Hawaii

Filament – As long as the USA, and as

narrow as Baja California or Florida.

Space Math [Link]

 Monster Sunspots! 4
Sunspots have been observed for thousands of years because, from time
to time, the sun produces spots that are so large they can be seen from Earth
with the naked eye…with the proper protection. Ancient observers would look at
the sun near sunrise or sunset when Earth's atmosphere provided enough
shielding to very briefly look at the sun for a few minutes. Astronomers keep
track of these large 'super spots' because they often produce violent solar
storms as their magnetic fields become tangled up into complex shapes.

Below are sketches and photographs of some large sunspots that have
been observed during the last 150 years. They have been reproduced at scales
that make it easy to study their details, but do not show how big they are
compared to each other.

Problem: By using a millimeter ruler, use the indicated scales for each
image to compute the physical sizes of the three sunspots in kilometers. Can
you sort them by their true physical size?

Top is the sunspot drawn by Richard

Carrington on August 28, 1859 at a scale of 5,700
kilometers/mm.
Middle is a photograph of a sunspot seen on
March 29, 2000 at a scale of 23,500 kilometers/cm.
Bottom is a sunspot seen on April 8, 1947 at
a scale of 100,000 kilometers/inch

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key:
4
Images ordered from largest to smallest and to scale:

Sunspot seen on April 8, 1947 reproduced at a scale of 100,000

kilometers/inch. The linear extent on the page is 7 centimeters, so the length in inches
is 7 / 2.5 = 2.8 inches. The true length is then 2.8 x 100,000 = 280,000 kilometers.

The sunspot drawn by Richard Carrington on August 28, 1859 at a scale of

5,700 kilometers/mm. With a ruler, the distance from the left to the right of the group is
about 40 millimeters, so the true length is about 40 x 5,700 = 228,000 kilometers.

A photograph of a sunspot seen on March 29, 2000 at a scale of 23,500

kilometers/cm. The length of the spot is 90 millimeters or 9 centimeters. The true
length is then 211,500 kilometers.

Space Math [Link]

 The Magnetic Classification of Sunspots 5
Solar flares are produced by magnetic
releases of energy in sunspots. The more complex
the magnetic field, the more likely a solar flare will
result. Sunspots are magnetically classified
according to the alpha, beta, gamma, and delta 'Mt
Wilson' scheme:

….. A group having only one polarity.

September 29, 2008
Alpha-Pores
…… A group of magnetic polarities, with a simple division
between them.
 …A bipolar group in which no continuous line can
be drawn separating spots of opposite polarities.

…….. A complex active region not classifiable as a bipolar

group.

……. A complex magnetic configuration consisting of

June 2, 2009 opposite polarity umbrae within the same penumbra.
Beta - Simple spot
The images to the left are from the
SOHO/MDI instrument in which North polarities are
white and South polarities are black. Solar flares are
more common in sunspots with complex magnetic
classifications such as  or .

Problem 1 - What classifications would you assign

to the sunspots in the bottom image obtained on
October 29, 2003 September 12, 1999?
Gamma - Complex spot

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 5
The SOHO/MDI instrument website has a complete archive of full-sun magnetograms
at [Link] Classifications can be found
in the Solar Region Summaries at the Space Weather Prediction Center:
[Link]

Problem 1 - What classifications would you assign to the sunspots in the bottom
image obtained on September 12, 1999?
Answer: The image below has the suggested classifications for the major active
regions. Assignment of a classification to the more complex spots can be difficult for
non-professionals, but students should be able to distinguish the major classes, 
and .

Space Math [Link]

 Using Hinode to Estimate Solar Rotation 6

The sun, like many other celestial bodies, spins around on an axis that passes
through its center. The rotation of the sun, together with the turbulent motion of the
sun's outer surface, work together to create magnetic forces. These forces give rise to
sunspots, prominences, solar flares and ejections of matter from the solar surface.

The X-ray telescope on the Hinode satellite creates movies of the rotating sun,
and makes it easy to see this motion. A pair of these images is shown above taken on
June 8, 2007 (Left); June 10 2007 (Right) at around 06:00 UT.

Although the sun is a sphere, it appears as a flat disk in these pictures when in
fact the center of the sun is bulging out of the page at you! We are going to neglect
this distortion and estimate how many days it takes the sun to spin once around on its
axis.

The radius of the sun is 696,000 kilometers.

Problem 1 - Using the information provided in the images, calculate the speed of the sun's
rotation in kilometers/sec and in miles/hour.

Problem 2 – About how many days does it take to rotate once at the equator?

Inquiry Question: What geometric factor produces the largest uncertainty in your estimate,
and can you come up with a method to minimize it to get a more accurate rotation period?

Weekly Math Problems [Link]

 6
Answer Key:

Problem 1 - Using the information provided in the images, calculate the speed of the sun's
rotation in kilometers/sec and in miles/hour.

First, from the diameter of the sun's disk, calculate the image scale of each picture in kilometers
per millimeter.

Diameter= 76 mm. so radius = 38 mm. Scale = (696,000 km)/38 mm = 18,400 km/mm

Then, find the center of the sun disk, and using this as a reference, place the millimeter ruler
parallel to the sun's equator, measure the distance to the very bright 'active region' to the right of
the center in each picture. Convert the millimeter measure into kilometers using the image scale.

Picture 1: June 8 distance = 4 mm d = 4 mm (18,400 km/mm) = 74,000 km

Picture 2; June 10 distance = 22 mm d = 22 mm (18,400 km/mm) = 404,000 km

Calculate the average distance traveled between June 8 and June 10.

Distance = (404,000 - 74,000) = 330,000 km

Divide this distance by the number of elapsed days (2 days)…………….. 165,000 km/day

Convert this to kilometers per hour……………………………………….….. 6,875 km/hour

Convert this to kilometers per second…………………………………….….. 1.9 km/sec

Convert this to miles per hour ………………………………………………… 4,400 miles/hour

Problem 2 – About how many days does it take to rotate once at the equator?

The circumference of the sun is 2 (696,000 km) = 4,400,000 kilometers.

The equatorial speed is 66,000 km/day so the number of days equals

4,400,000/165,000 = 26.6 days.

Inquiry Question:
Because the sun is a sphere, measuring the distance of the spot from the center of the
sun on June 10 gives a distorted linear measure due to foreshortening.

The sun has rotated about 20 degrees during the 2 days, so that means a full rotation
would take about (365/20) x 2 days = 36.5 days which is closer to the equatorial speed
of the sun of 35 days.

Weekly Math Problems [Link]

 Seeing Solar Storms in STEREO 7
Two NASA, STEREO satellites take images of the sun and its surroundings from two
separate vantage points along Earth's orbit. From these two locations, one located ahead of
the Earth, and the other located behind the Earth along its orbit, they can create stereo images
of the 3-dimensional locations of solar storms on or near the solar surface.

The three images below, taken on December 12, 2007, combine the data from the two
STEREO satellites (left and right) taken from these two locations, with the single image taken
by the SOHO satellite located half-way between the two STEREO satellites (middle). Notice
that there is a large storm event, called Active Region 978, located on the sun. The changing
location of AR978 with respect to the SOHO image shows the perspective change seen from
the STEREO satellites. You can experience the same Parallax Effect by holding your thumb at
arms length, and looking at it, first with the left eye, then with the right eye. The location of your
thumb will shift in relation to background objects in the room.

The diagram to the right shows

the relevant parallax geometry for the two
satellites A and B, separated by an angle
of 42 degrees as seen from the sun. The
diagram lengths are not drawn to scale.
The radius of the sun is 696,000 km.

Problem 1: With a millimeter ruler,

determine the scale of each image in
km/mm. How many kilometers did AR978
shift from the center position (SOHO
location for AR) between the two
STEREO images? This is the average
measure of 'L' in the diagram.

Problem 2: Using the Pythagorean

Theorem, determine the equation for the
height, h, in terms of R and L. Assume
the relevant triangle is a right triangle.

Problem 3: How high (h) above the sun's

surface, called the photosphere, was the
AR978 viewed by STEREO and SOHO
on December 12, 2007?

Space Math [Link]

 7
Answer Key

Problem 1: With a millimeter ruler, determine the scale of each image in km/mm. How
many kilometers did AR978 shift from the center position (SOHO location for AR) between
the two STEREO images? This is the measure of 'L' in the diagram.

Answer:
STEREO-Left image, sun diameter = 28 mm, actual = 1,392,000 km, so the scale is
1392000 km / 28mm = 49,700 km/mm
SOHO-center sun diameter = 36 mm, so the scale is
1392000 km/36mm = 38,700 km/mm
STEREO-right sun diameter = 29 mm, so the scale is
1392000 km / 29 mm = 48,000 km/mm

Taking the location of the SOHO image for AR978 as the reference, the left-hand image
shows that AR978 is about 5 mm to the right of the SOHO location which equals 5 mm x
49,700 km/mm = 248,000 km. From the right-hand STEREO image, we see that AR978 is
about 5 mm to the left of the SOHO position or 5 mm x 48,000 km/mm = 240,000 km.
The average is 244,000 kilometers.

Problem 2: Using the Pythagorean Theorem, determine the equation for the height, h, in
terms of R and L.
2 2 2
Answer: ( R + h) = R + L

2 2 1/2
h = (R +L ) - R

Problem 3: How high (h) above the sun's surface, called the photosphere, was the AR978
viewed by STEREO and SOHO on December 12, 2007?

2 2 1/2
Answer: h = ( (244,000) + (696,000) ) - 696,000

h = 737,500 - 696,000

h = 41,500 kilometers

Space Math [Link]

 Hinode Studies Loopy Sunspots! 8

The solar surface is not only a hot, convecting ocean of gas, but is laced with
magnetism. The sun's magnetic field can be concentrated into sunspots, and when solar
gases interact with these magnetic fields, their light lets scientists study the complex 'loopy'
patterns that the magnetic fields make as they expand into space. The above image was
taken by NASA's TRACE satellite and shows one of these magnetic loops rising above the
surface near two sunspots. The horseshoe shape of the magnetic field is anchored at its two
'feet' in the dark sunspot regions. The heated gases become trapped by the magnetic forces
in sunspot loops, which act like magnetic bottles. The gases are free to flow along the lines
of magnetic force, but not across them. The above image only tells scientists where the
gases are, and the shape of the magnetic field, which isn't enough information for scientists
to fully understand the physical conditions within these magnetic loops. Satellites such as
Hinode carry instruments like the EUV Imaging Spectrometer, which lets scientists measure
the temperatures of the gases and their densities as well.

Problem 1: The Hinode satellite studied a coronal loop on January 20, 2007 associated with
Active Region AR 10938, which was shaped like a semi-circle with a radius of 20,000
kilometers, forming a cylindrical tube with a base radius of 1000 kilometers. What was the
total volume of this magnetic loop in cubic centimeters assuming that it is shaped like a
cylinder?

Problem 2: The Hinode EUV Imaging Spectrometer was able to determine that the density
of the gas within this magnetic loop was about 2 billion hydrogen atoms per cubic centimeter.
-24
If a hydrogen atom has a mass of 1.6 x 10 grams, what was the total mass of the gas
trapped within this cylindrical loop in metric tons?

Space Math [Link]

 8
Answer Key:

Problem 1: The Hinode satellite studied a coronal loop on January 20, 2007 associated
with Active Region AR 10938, which was shaped like a semi-circle with a radius of 20,000
kilometers, forming a cylindrical tube with a base radius of 1000 kilometers. What was the
total volume of this magnetic loop in cubic centimeters assuming that it is shaped like a
cylinder?

Answer: The length (h) of the cylinder is 1/2 the circumference of the circle with a
radius of 20,000 km or h = 1/2 (2 R) = 3.14 x 20,000 km = 62,800 km
2
The volume of a cylinder is V =  R h so that the volume of the loop is
2
V =  (1000 km) x 62,800 km
11
= 2.0 x 10 cubic kilometers.
15
1 cubic kilometer = 10 cubic centimeters so
26
= 2.0 x 10 cubic centimeters

Problem 2: The Hinode EUV Imaging Spectrometer was able to determine that the
density of the gas within this magnetic loop was about 2 billion hydrogen atoms per cubic
-24
centimeter. If a hydrogen atom has a mass of 1.6 x 10 grams, what was the total mass of
the gas trapped within this cylindrical loop in metric tons?

Answer: The total mass is the product of the density times the volume, so
9 -24 -15 3
Density = 2 x 10 particles/cc x (1.6 x 10 grams/particle) = 3.2 x 10 grams/cm

The approximate volume of the magnetic loop in cubic centimeters is

11 3 15 3 3
V = ( 2.0 x 10 km ) x (1.0 x 10 cm /km
26 3
= 2.0 x 10 cm

-15 3 26 3 26-15
Mass = Density x Volume = (3.2 x 10 grams/cm ) x (2.0 x 10 cm ) = 6.4 x 10
11 8
= 6.4 x 10 grams or 6.4 x 10 kilograms or 640,000 metric tons.

Space Math [Link]

 Sunspot cycles 9
The Sun is an active star that
goes through cycles of high
and low activity. Scientists
mark these changes by
counting sunspots. The
numbers of spots increase and
decrease about every 11
years in what scientists call the
Sunspot Cycle.

This activity will let you

investigate how many years
typically elapse between the
sunspot cycles. Is the cycle
really, exactly 11-years long? The sunspot cycle between 1994 and 2008

Scientists study many phenomena that run in cycles. The Sun provides a
number of such 'natural rhythms' in the solar system.

 Sequences of Here's how to do it!

Consider the following measurements taken
numbers often have
every 5 minutes:
maximum and
100, 200, 300, 200, 100, 200, 300, 200
minimum values
that re-occur
1. There are two maxima (value '300').
periodically. 2. The maxima are separated by 4 intervals.
3. The cycle has a period of 4 x 5 = 20 minutes.
4. The pairs of minima (value = 100) are also
separated by this same period of time.
Now you try!
This table gives the sunspot numbers for pairs
Sunspot Numbers of maximums and minimums in the sunspot
cycle.
Solar Maximum | Solar Minimum
1) From the solar maximum data, calculate
Year Number Year Number the number of years between each pair of
2000 125 1996 9 maxima.
1990 146 1986 14
1980 154 1976 13 2) From the solar minimum data, calculate
1969 106 1964 10 the number of years between each pair of
minima.
1957 190 1954 4
1947 152 1944 10 3) What is the average time between solar
1937 114 1933 6 maxima?
1928 78 1923 6
1917 104 1913 1 4) What is the average time between solar
1905 63 1901 3 minima?
1893 85 1889 6
5) Combining the answers to #3 and #4, what
1883 64 1879 3 is the average sunspot cycle length?
1870 170 1867 7

Space Math [Link]

 9
Answer Key

Space Math [Link]

 The Sunspot Cycle - endings and beginnings 10

The above plot shows the current sunspot cycle (Number 23) based on the average monthly
sunspot counts since January, 1994.

Problem 1 - About when (month and year) did Sunspot Cycle 23 begin?

Problem 2 - About when (month and year) did Sunspot Cycle 23 reach its maximum?

Problem 3 - A) What was the average minimum sunspot count during the years of the
previous sunspot minimum? B) What do you think the average sunspot count will be
during the current sunspot minimum?

Problem 4 - What is the number of years between sunspot minima to the nearest tenth of a
year?

Problem 5 - How long did Cycle 23 take to reach sunspot maximum?

Problem 6 - When (year, month) do you predict we will reach sunspot maximum during the
next cycle ( Cycle 24)?

Problem 7 - When (year, month) do you think the next sunspot minimum will occur?

Problem 8 - During which part of the sunspot cycle is there A) the greatest month-to-month
variation in the number of sunspots counted? B) The least variation in the number
counted?

Space Math [Link]

 10
Answer Key:
Problem 1 - When (month and year) did Sunspot Cycle 23 begin?
Answer: Around July, 1996

Problem 2 - When (month and year) did Sunspot Cycle 23 reach its maximum?
Answer: Around July, 2000 and a second maximum near September, 2001

Problem 3 - A) What was the average minimum sunspot count during the previous sunspot
minimum?
Answer: From the graph the monthly numbers are 5,8,6,6,12,8,13,1,0,16,13,6 for
an average of 8 sunspots during 1996.

B) What do you think the average sunspot count will be during the current
sunspot minimum?
Answer: About 12.

Problem 4 - What is the number of years between sunspot minima to the nearest tenth of a
year?
Answer: The first minimum was on July, 1996 and the current minimum seems to
be around March ,2007 so the difference is 2007.25 - 1996.58 = 10.7 years.

Problem 5 - How long did Cycle 23 take to reach sunspot maximum?

Answer: The first maximum occurred on July 2000, the minimum was July 1996,
so it took 4 years.

Problem 6 - When (year, month) do you predict we will reach sunspot maximum during the
next cycle ( Cycle 24)?
Answer: If we add 4 years to the current minimum on March, 2007 we get March,
2011.

Problem 7 - When (year, month) do you think the next sunspot minimum will occur?
Answer: From our answer to Problem 4, if we add 10.7 years to March, 2007 we get
2007.25 + 10.7 = 2017.95 or December, 2017.

Problem 8 - During which part of the sunspot cycle is there A) the greatest month-to-month
variation in the number of sunspots counted? B) The least variation in the number
counted?
Answer: Looking at the graph, the largest variations from month to month occur near
sunspot maximum, and the least variations occur near sunspot minimum.

Space Math [Link]

 Sunspot Size and the Sunspot Cycle 11
Sunspots are some of the most interesting, and longest studied, phenomena on the
sun’s surface. They were known to ancient Chinese observers over 2000 years ago. Below is
a list of the largest sunspots seen since 1859. Their sizes are given in terms of the area of the
solar hemisphere facing earth. For example, ‘3600’ means 3600 millionths of the solar area or
(3600/1000000). On this scale, the area of Earth is ‘169’. All of these spots were large enough
to be seen with the naked eye when proper (and safe!) viewing glasses were used.

Date Size Earths Date Size Earths

February 10, 1917 3600 21.3 October 14, 1981 4180
January 25, 1926 3700 October 19, 1981 4500
January 18, 1938 3650 February 10, 1982 3800
February 6, 1946 5250 June 18, 1982 4400
July 27, 1946 4700 July 15, 1982 4900
March 10, 1947 4650 April 28, 1984 5400
April 7, 1947 6150 May 13, 1984 3700
May 16, 1951 4850 March 13, 1989 5230
Nov. 14, 1970 3500 September 5, 1989 3500
August 23, 1971 3500
October 30, 1972 4120
Nov. 11, 1980 3820
July 28, 1981 3800

Question 1: The peaks of the 11-year sunspot

Years of Peak Sunspot cycle during the 20th century occurred during the
Activity: years shown to the left. On average, how close to
sunspot maximum do the largest spots occur?
Sunspot Peak
Cycle Year
14 1906 Question 2: From this sample, do more of these
15 1917 spots happen in the 5 years before sunspot
16 1928 maximum, or within 5 years after sunspot
17 1937 maximum?
18 1947
19 1958
20 1968 Question 3: Convert the sunspot areas into an
21 1979 equivalent area of the Earth. (Note the first one has
22 1989 been done as an example). What is the average
large spot size in terms of Earth?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 11

Date Size Area Nearest Difference

In Sunspot In
Earths Max. Year Years
February 10, 1917 3600 21.3 1917 0
January 25, 1926 3700 21.9 1928 -2
January 18, 1938 3650 21.6 1937 +1
February 6, 1946 5250 31.1 1947 -1
July 27, 1946 4700 27.8 1947 -1
March 10, 1947 4650 27.5 1947 0
April 7, 1947 6150 36.4 1947 0
May 16, 1951 4850 28.7 1951 0
Nov. 14, 1970 3500 20.7 1968 +2
August 23, 1971 3500 20.7 1968 +3
October 30, 1972 4120 24.4 1968 +4
Nov. 11, 1980 3820 22.6 1979 +1
July 28, 1981 3800 22.5 1979 +2
October 14, 1981 4180 24.7 1979 +2
October 19, 1981 4500 26.6 1979 +2
February 10, 1982 3800 22.5 1979 +3
June 18, 1982 4400 26.0 1979 +3
July 15, 1982 4900 29.0 1979 +3
April 28, 1984 5400 32.0 1989 -5
May 13, 1984 3700 21.9 1989 -5
March 13, 1989 5230 31.0 1989 0
September 5, 1989 3500 20.7 1989 0

Question 1: On average, how close to sunspot maximum do the largest spots

occur? Answer: Find the average of the differences in last column = 0 years. So,
the largest sunspots occur, on average, close to the peak of the sunspot cycle.

Question 2: For this sample, do more of these spots happen in the 5 years
before sunspot maximum, or within 5 years after sunspot maximum? Answer:
More happen after the peak. Five happen before the peak (negative differences)
and 11 happen after the peak (Positive differences).

Question 3: What is the average large spot size in terms of Earth? Answer:
Average = (561.6/22) = 25.5 Earth Areas.

Space Math [Link]

 Sunspot Cycles Since 1900 12
Table of Sunspot Numbers Since 1900
Year SSN Year SSN Year SSN Year SSN
1900 9 1928 78 1956 142 1984 46
1901 3 1929 65 1957 190 1985 18
1902 5 1930 36 1958 185 1986 13
1903 24 1931 21 1959 159 1987 29
1904 42 1932 11 1960 112 1988 100
1905 63 1933 6 1961 54 1989 158
1906 54 1934 9 1962 38 1990 142
1907 62 1935 36 1963 28 1991 146
1908 49 1936 80 1964 10 1992 94
1909 44 1937 114 1965 15 1993 55
1910 19 1938 110 1966 47 1994 30
1911 6 1939 89 1967 94 1995 18
1912 4 1940 68 1968 106 1996 9
1913 1 1941 47 1969 106 1997 21
1914 10 1942 31 1970 105 1998 64
1915 47 1943 16 1971 67 1999 93
1916 57 1944 10 1972 69 2000 120
1917 104 1945 33 1973 38 2001 111
1918 81 1946 93 1974 34 2002 104
1919 64 1947 152 1975 15 2003 64
1920 38 1948 136 1976 13 2004 40
1921 26 1949 135 1977 27 2005 30
1922 14 1950 84 1978 93 2006 15
1923 6 1951 69 1979 155 2007 8
1924 17 1952 31 1980 155 2008 3
1925 44 1953 14 1981 140 2009 2
1926 64 1954 4 1982 116
1927 69 1955 38 1983 67

In 1843, the German astronomer Samuel Schwab plotted the number of

sunspots on a graph and discovered that the number of sunspots on the sun
was not the same every year, but goes through a cyclical increase and decrease
over time. The table above gives the average number of sunspots (SSN)
detected each year since 1900.

Problem 1 - Graph the data in the table over the domain [1900, 2009] and range
[0,200]. How many sunspot cycles can you count over this time interval?

Problem 2 - What is the average period of the sunspot cycle during this time
interval?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 12

200
180
160
Annual SSN

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Problem 1 - Graph the data in the table over the domain [1900, 2009] and range [0,200].
How many sunspot cycles can you count over this time interval?

Answer: There are 10 complete cycles.

Problem 2 - What is the average period of the sunspot cycle during this time interval?

Answer: The time interval is 109 years during which 10 cycles occur for an average period
of 10.9 years.

Note: Additional sunspot data can be found at

[Link] [Link]

NASA Marshall Spaceflight Center

[Link]

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

[Link]
Select year from list, select file '[Link]' and open. Column 5 gives average SSN for given
day.

Space Math [Link]

 Are you ready for Sunspot Cycle 24? 13
In 2007, the best estimates and observations suggested that we had just entered sunspot
minimum, and that the next solar activity cycle might begin during the first few months of 2008. In
May, 2007, solar physicist Dr. William Pesnell at the NASA, Goddard Spaceflight Center tabulated
all of the current predictions for when the next sunspot cycle (2008-2019) will reach its peak.
These predictions, reported by many other solar scientists are shown in the table below.
Current Predictions for the Next Sunspot Maximum

Author Prediction Spots Year Method Used

Year
Horstman 2005 185 2010.5 Last 5 cycles
Thompson 2006 180 Precurser
Tsirulnik 1997 180 2014 Global Max
Podladchikova 2006 174 Integral SSN
Dikpati 2006 167 Dynamo Model
Hathaway 2006 160 AA Index
Pesnell 2006 160 2010.6 Cycle 24 = Cycle22
Maris & Onicia 2006 145 2009.9 Neural Network Forecast
Hathaway 2004 145 2010 Meridional Circulation
Gholipour 2005 145 2011.5 Spectral Analysis
Chopra & Davis 2006 140 2012.5 Disturbed Day Analysis
Kennewell 2006 130 H-alpha synoptic charts
Tritakis 2006 133 2009.5 Statistics of Rz
Tlatov 2006 130 H-alpha Charts
Nevanlinna 2007 124 AA at solar minimum
Kim 2004 122 2010.9 Cycle parameter study
Pesnell 2006 120 2010 Cycle 24 = Cycle 23
Tlatov 2006 115 Unipolar region size
Tlatov 2006 115 Large Scale magnetic field
Prochasta 2006 119 Average of Cycles 1 to 23
De Meyer 2003 110 Transfer function model
Euler & Smith 2006 122 2011.2 McNish-Lincoln Model
Hiremath 2007 110 2012 Autoregressive Model
Tlatov 2006 110 Magnetic Moments
Lantos 2006 108 2011 Even/Odd cycle pattern
Kane 1999 105 2010.5 Spectral Components
Pesnell 2006 101 2012.6 Linear Prediction
Wang 2002 101 2012.3 Solar Cycle Statistics
Roth 2006 89 2011.1 Moving averages
Duhau 2003 87 Sunspot Maxima and AA
Baranovski 2006 80 2012 Non-Linear Dynamo model
Schatten 2005 80 2012 Polar Field Precurser
Choudhuri 2007 80 Flux Transport Dynamo
Javariah 2007 74 Low-Lat. Spot Groups
Svalgaard 2005 70 Polar magnetic field
Kontor 2006 70 2012.9 Statistical extrapolation
Badalyan 2001 50 2010.5 Coronal Line
Cliverd 2006 38 Atmospheric Radiocarbon
Maris 2004 50 Flare energy during Cycle 23

Problem 1: What is the average year for the predicted sunspot maximum?
Problem 2: What is the average prediction for the total number of sunspots during the next
sunspot maximum?
Problem 3: Which scientist has offered the most predictions? Do they show any trends?
Problem 4: What is the average prediction for the total sunspots during each prediction year
from 2003 to 2006?
Problem 5: As we get closer to sunspot minimum in 2008, have the predictions for the peak
sunspots become larger, smaller, or remain unchanged on average?
Problem 6: Which methods give the most different prediction for the peak sunspot number,
compared to the average of the predictions made during 2006?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key:
13
Problem 1: What is the average year for the predicted sunspot maximum?
Answer: There are 21 predictions, with an average year of 2011.3.
This corresponds to about March, 2011.

Problem 2: What is the average prediction for the total number of sunspots during the next
sunspot maximum?
Answer: The average of the 39 estimates in column 3 is 116 sunspots at sunspot maximum.

Problem 3: Which scientist has offered the most predictions? Do they show any trends?
Answer: Tlatov has offered 4 predictions, all made in the year 2006. The predicted numbers
were 130, 115, 115 and 110. There does not seem to be a significant trend towards
larger or smaller predictions by this scientist. The median value is 115 and the mode is
also 115.

Problem 4: What is the average prediction for the total sunspots during each prediction year
from 2003 to 2006?
Answer: Group the predictions according to the prediction year and then find the average for
that year.
2003: 110, 87 average = 98

2004: 145, 122, 50 average= 106

2005: 185,145,80,70 average= 120

2006: 180,174,167,160,160,145,140,130,133,130,120,
115,115,119,122,110,108,101,89,80,70,38 average= 123

Problem 5: As we get closer to sunspot minimum in 2008, have the predictions for the peak
sunspots become larger, smaller, or remain unchanged on average?
Answer: Based on the answer to problem 4, it appears that the predictions have tended to get
larger, increasing from about 98 to 123 between 2003 and 2006.

Problem 6: Which methods give the most different prediction for the peak sunspot number,
compared to the average of the predictions made during 2006?
Answer: Cliverd’s Atmospheric Radiocarbon Method (38 spots), Badalyan’s Coronal Line
Method (50 spots), and Maris’s Flare Energy during Cycle 23 (50 spots) seem to be the
farthest from the average predictions that have been made by other forecasting
methods.

Space Math [Link]

 14
Solar flares
Solar flares are powerful
explosions of energy and
matter from the Sun's surface.
One explosion, lasting only a
few minutes, could power the
entire United States for a full
year. Astronauts have to be
protected from solar flares
because the most powerful
ones can kill an astronaut if
they were working outside
their spacecraft.

In this exercise, you will learn

how scientists classify flares,
and how to decode them.
Image of Sun showing flare-like eruption.

Scientists create alphabetic and numerical scales to classify

phenomena, and to assign names to specific events.

Here's how to do it!

A solar flare scale uses three multipliers defined by the
 Simple equations letter codes C = 1.0, M=10.0, X=1000.0.
can serve as codes.
 A solar flare might be classified as M5.8 which
means a brightness of (10.0) x (5.8) = 58.0.
 A second solar flare might be classified as X15.6
which means (1000.0) x (15.6) = 15,600.0

Now you try! The X15.6 flare is (15,600/58) = 269 times brighter than
the M5.8 flare.

The GEOS satellite has an X-ray monitor that records daily solar flare
activity. The table below shows the flares detected between January 11
and March 3, 2000.

Flare Codes for Major Events

1) What was the brightest flare
Date Code Date Code detected during this time?
1-11 M1.5 2-12 M1.7
1-12 M2.8 2-17 M2.5 2) What was the faintest flare
1-18 M3.9 2-18 C2.7 detected during this time?
1-22 M1.0 2-20 M2.4
1-24 C5.3 2-21 M1.8 3) How much brighter was the
1-25 C6.8 2-22 M1.2 brightest flare than the faintest
2-3 C8.4 2-23 C6.8 flare?
2-4 M3.0 2-24 M1.1
2-5 X1.2 2-26 M1.0 4) What percentage of the
2-6 C2.4 3-1 C6.9 flares were brighter than M1.0?
2-8 M1.3 3-2 X1.1
 14
Answer Key

Problem 1 - X1.2 on February 5 with a brightness of (1000) x 1.2 = 1,200

Problem 2 - C2.4 on February 6 with a brightness of (1.0) x 2.4 = 2.4

Problem 3 - 1200/2.4 = 500 times brighter

Problem 4 - There are a total of 22 flares in this table. There are 13 flares
brighter than M1.0 but not equal to M1.0. The percentage is then (13/22)x100%
= 59%
 Sunspots and Solar Flares 15
Sunspots are some of the most interesting, and longest studied, phenomena on the sun’s
surface. The table below shows the areas of several sunspots observed between November 6 and
January 19, 2004. In comparison, the surface area of Earth is ‘169’ units on the sunspot scale. The
table also shows the brightest flare seen from the vicinity of the sunspots. Flares are ranked by their
brightness ‘C’, ‘M’ and ‘X’ with M-class flares being 10x more luminous that C-class flares, and X-
class flares being 10x brighter than M-class flares.

Date Spot # Area Flare

Nov 6 #696 820 M
Nov 7 #696 910 M
Nov 8 #696 650 X
Nov 10 #696 730 M
Nov 11 #696 470 X
Dec 2 #708 130 M
Dec 3 #708 150 M
Dec 9 #709 20 C
Dec 29 #713 150 M
Dec 30 #715 260 M During the 75 day time period
Dec 31 #715 350 M covered by this table, there were a
Jan 1 #715 220 M total of (720-696=) 24 catalogued
sunspots. The table shows only those
Jan 2 #715 180 X cataloged sunspots that were active
Jan 4 #715 130 C in producing flares during this time.
Jan 10 #719 100 M Sunspot areas are in terms of
millionths of the solar hemisphere
Jan 14 #718 160 C area, so ‘1630’ means 0.163% of the
Jan 15 #720 1540 M Sun’s face. Earth’s area = 169
Jan 16 #720 1620 X millionths by comparison!
Jan 17 #720 1630 M
Jan 18 #720 1460 X Sunspot and solar flare data from NOAA
SWN data archive at
Jan 19 #720 1400 M [Link]

Problem 1 - Construct a pie chart for the X, M and C-class flare data. During this 75-day period, what
percentage of flares are X-class?

Problem 2 - What percentage of sunspots produce X-class flares?

Problem 3 - What percentage of sunspots did not produce any flares during this time?

Problem 4 - What seems to be the minimum size for a sunspot that produces an X-class flare? An
M-class flare? A C-class flare?

Problem 5 - If the area of Earth is ‘169’ in the sunspot units used in the above tables, what are the
maximum and minimum size of the sunspots compared to the area of Earth?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 15

Note, there are 21 flares in the table.

X = 5 flares
M = 13 flares
C = 3 flares.
The pie chart angles are
21 = 360 degrees
X = (5/21)x360 = 86 degrees
M = (13/21)x360 = 223 degrees
C = (3/21)x360 = 51 degrees.
And to check: 223+86+51 = 360.

Problem 1: With a pie chart, what percentage of flares were X-type?

Answer: 5 out of 21 or (5/21)x100% = 24%

Problem 2: During this 75-day period, what percentage of flares are X-class flares?
Answer: There are 24 sunspots in the sample because the catalog numbers run from 720 to 698
as stated in the table caption (A ‘reading to be informed’ activity). There were three sunspots
listed in the table that produced X-class flares: #696, #715, #720. The percentage is
(3/24)x100% = 12.5% which may be rounded to 13%.

Problem 3: What percentage of sunspots did not produce flares during this time?
Answer: There were only 8 sunspots in the table that produced flares, so there were 16 out of 24
that did not produce any flares. This is (16/24)x100% = 67%. An important thing for students to
note is that MOST sunspots do not produce any significant flares.

Problem 4: What seems to be the minimum size for a sunspot that produces an X-class flare?
An M-class flare? A C-class flare?
Answer: Students may reasonably answer by saying that there doesn’t seem to be any definite
correlation for the X and M-class flares! For X-class flares, you can have them if the area is
between 180 and 1620. For M-class flares, spots with areas from 130 to 1630 can have them.
The two possibilities overlap. For C-class flares, they seem to be most common in the smaller
spots from 20 – 130 in area, but the sample in the table is so small we cant really tell if this is a
genuine correlation or not. Also, we have only shown in the table the largest flares on a given
day, and smaller flares may also have occurred for many of these spots.

Problem: If the area of Earth is ‘169’ in the sunspot units used in the above tables, what are the
maximum and minimum size of the sunspots compared to the area of Earth?
Answer: The smallest spot size occurred for #709 with an equivalent size of (20/169)x100% =
11% of Earth’s area. The largest spot was #720 with a size equal to (1630/169) = 9.6 times
Earth’s area.

Space Math [Link]

 Hinode Sees Mysterious Solar Micro-flares 16

The Sun's surface is not only speckled with sunspots, it is also dotted with intense
spots of X-ray light called 'X-ray Bright Points'. Although sunspots can be over 100,000
kilometers across and easily seen with a telescope, X-ray Bright Points are so small even the
largest solar telescope only sees a few of them with enough detail to reveal their true shapes.
X-ray Bright Points release their energy by converting tangled magnetic fields into smoother
ones. This liberates large quantities of stored magnetic energy. For that reason, these Bright
Points can be thought of as micro-flares.
Hinode's X-ray Telescope (XRT) can now see the details in some of the Bright Points
and allow scientists to see small magnetic loops. In the image above, individual bright points
are circled in green. A few of them can be resolved into tiny magnetic loops. These data were
taken on March 16, 2007. The image is 300 x 300 pixels in size. Each pixel views an area on
the sun that is 1 arcsecond x 1 arcsecond on a side.

Problem 1: If the diameter of the Sun is 1800 arcseconds, and has a radius of
696,000 km, what is the scale of the above image in A) kilometers per arcsecond? B)
kilometers/millimeter?

Problem 2: What are the dimensions, in kilometers, of the smallest circled Bright
Point in the image?

Problem 3: How many Bright Points cover the solar surface if the above picture is
typical?

Space Math [Link]

 16
Answer Key:

Problem 1: If the diameter of the sun measures 1800 arcseconds and has a radius of 696,000
km, what is the scale of the above image in kilometers per arcsecond?

Answer: A) The solar radius is 1800 arcseconds/2 = 900 arcseconds which physically equals
696,000 km, so the scale is 696,000/900 = 773 kilometers/arcsecond.

B) The image is 300 pixels across, which measures 115 millimeters with a ruler. Each pixel is 1
arcsecond in size, so this represents 773 km/arcsec x 300 = 232,000 km. The ruler says that
this equals 115 mm, so the image scale is 232,000 km/115 mm = 2,020 km/mm.

Problem 2: What are the dimensions of the smallest circled Bright Point in the image?

Answer: With a ruler, the circled Bright Point at the top of the picture seems to be the smallest. It
measures about 2 millimeters across and 1 millimeter wide. This corresponds to about 4000 x
2000 km.

Problem 3: How many Bright Points cover the solar surface if the above picture is typical?

Answer:
The sun is a sphere with a radius of 696,000 kilometers. The area of a sphere is given
2 2 12
by 4 R , so the surface area of the sun is 4 x 3.141 x (696,000 km) = 6.1 x 10
2
kilometers .

The size of the Hinode image is 300 pixels x 773 km/pixel = 232,000 km on a side. The
10 2
area covered is about (232,000 km x 232,000 km) = 5.4 x 10 km . Note, this is an
approximation because of the distortion of a flat image attempting to represent a curved spherical
surface. The actual solar surface area covered is actually a bit larger.

12 2 10 2
The solar surface is about 6.1 x 10 km / 5.4 x 10 km = 113 times larger than the
Hinode image.

There are 16 Bright Points in the Hinode image, so there would be 15 x 113 = 1,695
Bright Points covering the full solar surface if the Hinode image is typical.

Space Math [Link]

 RHESSI Observes Super-fast Solar Flares ! 17
NASA's Ramaty High Energy Solar
Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) satellite
has been studying solar flares since 2002.
The sequence of figures to the left shows a
flaring region observed on November 3,
2003. This flare was rated as 'X3.9' making it
an extremely powerful event. A detailed
study of this flare by astronomer Dr. Astrid
Veronig and her colleagues at the Institute of
Physics of the University of Graz in Austria
allowed scientists to determine the physical
properties of this event. During the 4-minute
flaring event, gas temperatures of over 45
million Kelvin were reached in a gas with a
density of 400 billion atoms/cc.

The figures each have a field of view of 80

second of arc x 100 seconds of arc, where
one 'arcsecond' = 1/3600 of a degree). The
diameter of the sun in these angular units is
1950 seconds of arc, and its physical
diameter is 1,392,000 kilometers.

Each image shows the main flare region

(blue) and Images D, E and F show a second
plasma cloud being ejected by the flaring
region.

"X-ray sources and magnetic reconnection in the

X3.9 flare of 2003 November 3" A. Veronig et al.,
Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2005 vol. 446,
p.675.

Problem 1 - From the information in the text, what is the size of each box in kilometers?

Problem 2 - What is the scale of each image in kilometers per millimeter?

Problem 3 - Between Image D and Image F, how much time elapsed?

Problem 4 - Between Image D and Image F, how far did the plasma cloud travel in
kilometers?

Problem 5 - Between Image D and Image F, what was the average speed of the plasma
cloud in kilometers per second?

Problem 6 - The SR-71 Blackbird holds the official Air Speed Record for a manned
airbreathing jet aircraft with a speed of 3,529.56 km/h (2,188 mph). It was capable of
taking off and landing unassisted on conventional runways. The record was set on July
28, 1976 by Eldon W. Joersz near Beale Air Force Base in California. Would the SR-
71 have been able to out-run the plasma cloud?

Space Math [Link]

 17
Answer Key:

Problem 1 - From the information in the text, what is the size of each box in kilometers?

Answer: (100 arc-sec/1950-arcsec) x 1,392,000 km = 71,400 km.

(80 arcsec/1950 arcsec0 x 1,392,000 km = 57,100 km.
The boxes are 71,400 x 57,100 km in size.

Problem 2 - What is the scale of each image in kilometers per millimeter?

Answer: The 100-arcsec edge of a box measures 34 millimeters, so the scale is (71,400 km/34
mm) = 2,100 km/mm

Problem 3 - Between Image D and Image F, how much time elapsed?

Answer: 09:49:12.6 UT - 09: 48: 40.2 UT = 72.6 - 40.2 = 30.4 seconds.

Problem 4 - Between Image D and Image F, how far did the plasma cloud travel in kilometers?
Answer: In Image D it was 12 millimeters from the flare center. In Image F it was 15 millimeters
from the flare center, for a net change of 3 millimeters or 3 mm x 2,100 km/mm = 6,300
kilometers.

Problem 5 - Between Image D and Image F, what was the average speed of the cloud in
kilometers per second?
Answer: The speed was 6,300 kilometers/30.4 seconds or 207 kilometers/sec.

Problem 6 - The SR-71 Blackbird holds the official Air Speed Record for a manned air-breathing
jet aircraft with a speed of 3,529.56 km/h (2,188 mph). It was capable of taking off and landing
unassisted on conventional runways. The record was set on July 28, 1976 by Eldon W. Joersz
near Beale Air Force Base in California. Would the SR-71 have been able to out-run the plasma
cloud?

Answer: The SR-71 traveled at a speed of 3,530 km/hour. There are 3,600 seconds in an hour, so
the speed was 3,530 km/hr x 1 hr/3600 sec = 0.98 kilometers/sec. The solar flare blob was
traveling at 207 kilometers per second or nearly 210 times faster! The plasma cloud
wins!!!

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Flares and Solar Proton Events 18
Solar Proton Events (SPEs) can cause satellite damage and produce harmful
radiation dosages for astronauts working and traveling in space. The table below lists
all the SPEs between 1997 and 2004 with intensities greater than 300 particle Flux
Units (pFU). Study this table and answer the questions that follow.

Date SPE Solar Flare Question 1: What is the range of the

Intensity Brightness SPE intensities recorded for the
(pFUs) (Relative) period from 1997 to 2004?
Nov 7, 2004 495 200.0
Jul 25, 2004 2,086 10.0
Nov 4. 2003 353 2800.0 Question 2: What is the frequency of
Nov 2, 2003 1,570 SPE events for each year?
Oct 28, 2003 29,500 1700.0
Oct 26, 2003 466 100.0
Nov 9, 2002 404 40.0
Aug 24, 2002 317 300.0
Question 3: Is there a relationship
May 22, 2002 820 5.0 between the SPE intensity and the
April 21, 2002 2,520 100.0 solar flare brightness?
Dec 26, 2001 779 70.0
Nov 22, 2001 18,900 90.0
Nov 4, 2001 31,700 100.0 Question 4: Do the brightest solar
Oct 1, 2001 2,360 90.0 flares produce the most intense
Sep 24, 2001 12,900 200.0 SPEs? Give examples that
Apr 18, 2001 951 2.0 demonstrate your answer.
Apr 10, 2001 355 200.0
Apr 2, 2001 1,110 2000.0 Question 5: The sunspot cycle had
Nov 24, 2000 942 200.0 the largest number of sunspots
Nov 8, 2000 14,800 70.0 during 2000. What is unusual about
Sep 12, 2000 320 10.0 the frequency of SPEs and ‘sunspot
July 14, 2000 24,000 500.0 maximum’?
Nov 14, 1998 310 1.0
Sep 30, 1998 1,200 20.0 Question 6: Are there more SPEs
Aug 24, 1998 670 100.0 during certain months of the year?
May 6, 1998 210 200.0
April 20, 1998 1,700 10.0
Nov 6, 1997 490 900.0

Applying what you have learned.

Satellites lose 2% of their electrical power for every SPE brighter than 15,000
pFUs. If a satellite was launched in 1997, how much power loss will it have
suffered by the end of 2004?

If the satellite systems require 4500 watts to operate, how could the designers
have insured that the satellite received all the power it needed by the end of 2004?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 18

Once in a while. the sun lets loose with a powerful burst of energy similar to a
solar flare, but potentially far more lethal. Solar Proton Events (SPEs) are streams
of protons that are accelerated to high energies near the solar surface, lasting
from hours to as much as a day or two. As these protons arrive at Earth, they can
scour solar panels on satellites costing them several years worth of power. When
the particles slam into metal in satellites or in spacecraft, they can produce
secondary nuclear particles and electrons that can damage delicate circuitry, or
even endanger astronaut health. This activity will have students examine a list of
the SPEs since 1996 from the archive at
[Link] which was produced by
scientists at the National Geophysical Data Center. Students will analyze the table
and answer questions on its statistical content.

Question 1: What is the range of the SPE intensities recorded for the period from
1997 to 2005? Answer: The range is [210, 31700]

Question 2: What is the frequency of SPE events for each year? Answer:
1997 = 1, 1998 = 5, 1999 = 0, 2000 = 4, 2001 = 8, 2002 = 4, 2003 = 4, 2004 = 2,
which can be bar-graphed.

Question 3: Is there a relationship between the SPE intensity and the solar flare
brightness? Answer: No. The most intense SPEs can have solar flares that span
nearly the entire brightness range for flares.

Question 4: Do the brightest solar flares produce the most intense SPEs? Give
examples that demonstrate your answer. Answer: No. See, for example
November 4, 2003 and Nove,ber 4, 2001.

Question 5: The sunspot cycle had the largest number of sunspots during 2000.
What is unusual about the frequency of SPEs and ‘sunspot maximum’? Answer:
There are far more SPEs after sunspot maximum than before sunspot maximum.

Question 6: Are there more SPEs during certain months of the year? Answer:
Yes. November and April have more SPEs!

If a satellite was launched in 1997, how much power loss will it have
suffered by 2005? Answer: There were 5 SPEs during this time that were
brighter than 15,000 pFUs so the satellites lose 5 x 2% = 10% of their electrical
power between 1997-2005.

If the satellite systems require at least 4500 watts to operate, how could the
designers have insured that the satellite received all the power it needed by 2005?
Answer: Just make the solar panels 10% larger to they produce 4900 watts at
launch. By the end of 2004, the power will have declined 10% to 4500 watts which
is still enough power to keep the equipment operating!

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Proton Events and the 23rd Cycle 19
Date SPE Date SPE Date SPE
(pFU) (pFU) (pFU)
1 11/4/1997 72 32 4/15/2001 951 63 7/22/2002 28
2 11/6/1997 490 33 4/18/2001 321 64 8/14/2002 26
3 4/20/1998 1,700 34 4/28/2001 57 65 8/22/2002 36
4 5/2/1998 150 35 5/7/2001 30 66 8/24/2002 317
5 5/6/1998 210 36 6/15/2001 26 67 9/7/2002 208
6 8/24/1998 670 37 8/10/2001 17 68 11/9/2002 404
7 9/25/1998 44 38 8/16/2001 493 69 5/28/2003 121
8 9/30/1998 1,200 39 9/15/2001 11 70 5/31/2003 27
9 11/8/1998 11 40 9/24/2001 12,900 71 6/18/2003 24
10 1/23/1999 14 41 10/1/2001 2,360 72 10/26/2003 466
11 4/24/1999 32 42 10/19/2001 11 73 10/28/2003 29,500
12 5/5/1999 14 43 10/22/2001 24 74 11/2/2003 1,570
13 6/2/1999 48 44 11/4/2001 31,700 75 11/4/2003 353
14 6/4/1999 64 45 11/19/2001 34 76 11/21/2003 13
15 2/18/2000 13 46 11/22/2001 18,900 77 12/2/2003 86
16 4/4/2000 55 47 12/26/2001 779 78 4/11/2004 35
17 6/7/2000 84 48 12/29/2001 76 79 7/25/2004 2,086
18 6/10/2000 46 49 12/30/2001 108 80 9/13/2004 273
19 7/14/2000 24,000 50 1/10/2002 91 81 11/1/2004 63
20 7/22/2000 17 51 1/15/2002 15 82 11/7/2004 495
21 7/28/2000 18 52 2/20/2002 13 83 1/16/2005 5,040
22 8/11/2000 17 53 3/17/2002 13 84 5/14/2005 3,140
23 9/12/2000 320 54 3/18/2002 53 85 6/16/2005 44
24 10/16/2000 15 55 3/20/2002 19 86 7/14/2005 134
25 10/26/2000 15 56 3/22/2002 16 87 7/27/2005 41
26 11/8/2000 14,800 57 4/17/2002 24 88 8/22/2005 330
27 11/24/2000 942 58 4/21/2002 2,520 89 9/8/2005 1,880
28 1/28/2001 49 59 5/22/2002 820 90 12/6/2006 1,980
29 3/29/2001 35 60 7/7/2002 22 91 12/13/2006 698
30 4/2/2001 1,110 61 7/16/2002 234
31 4/10/2001 355 62 7/19/2002 31

Solar Proton Events (SPEs) are intense 'storms' of high-energy protons that can
harm astronauts and damage satellite electronics. The table above lists the 91 significant
SPEs detected during the 23rd Sunspot Cycle (1996-2008). During the 11 years of the
sunspot cycle:

Problem 1 – Relative to the peak of the sunspot cycle, when do most of the SPEs occur?
Create a histogram to support your claim.

Problem 2 - SPEs are measured in terms of their intensity in particles per square
centimeter per second defined as '1 pFU'. When do the most intense SPEs occur for
which the intensities exceed 1000 pFU?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 19

25

20
Number

15

10

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Problem 1 - From a histogram of the data, when do most of the SPEs occur?
Answer: From the graph above, most of them occur near the peak of the sunspot
cycle (2001)

Problem 2 - SPEs are measured in terms of their intensity in particles per square
centimeter per second defined as '1 pFU'. When do the most intense SPEs occur for
which the intensities exceed 1000 pFU?
6

4
Number

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Answer: Few occur before sunspot maximum, and the peak year is sunspot
maximum (2001), with most of the events occurring during the 5 years following
sunspot maximum. The most intense SPE occurred in 2000 (2), and 2001 (4),
2003 (1) which again cluster within a few years +/- the year of sunspot maximum.

Space Math [Link]

 Estimating SPE Arrival Times 20

Speed %c Earth Distance from Sun in Astronomical Units

(km/s) 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2
150000 50 17 18 20 22 23 25 27 28 30 32 33
180000 60 14 15 17 18 19 21 22 24 25 26 28
210000 70 12 13 14 15 17 18 19 20 21 23 24
240000 80 10 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
270000 90 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
285000 95 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

The shaded values in the table above give the arrival times (in minutes) to the
various distances, given the speed of the high-energy solar protons indicated in the
first column, and in terms of the percentage of light-speed in column 2. The distances
are given in Astronomical Units (AUs) where 1.0 AU is the distance from the sun to
Earth (150 million km).

Problem 1 - An astronomer detects a powerful X-ray flare on the sun, and expects
that it was a source of energetic solar protons. The X-rays travel at the speed of light
and make the journey to Earth in 8.5 minutes. If the X-ray flare, called F1120, was first
spotted at 11:20:00 UT when did the solar X-rays actually leave the solar surface?

Problem 2 - The energy and speed of the solar protons from F1120 is not known, but
the astronomer thinks that they are in the range from 50% to 95% the speed of light. If
the solar protons were emitted at the same time the solar flare erupted on the sun,
what are the earliest and latest times that they could arrive at Earth?

Problem 3 – Given the maximum likely speed of the protons, how soon after the x-ray
flare was detected at Earth did the solar protons start to arrive?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 20
Problem 1 - An astronomer detects a powerful X-ray flare on the sun, and expects that
it was a source of energetic solar protons. The X-rays travel at the speed of light and
make the journey to Earth in 8.5 minutes. If the X-ray flare, called F1120, was first
spotted at 11:20:00 UT when did the solar X-rays actually leave the solar surface?

Answer: 8.5 minutes earlier in time so 11:20:00 - 00:08:30 = 11:11:30 UT.

Problem 2 - The energy and speed of the solar protons from F1120 is not known, but
the astronomer thinks that they are in the range from 50% to 95% the speed of light. If
the solar protons were emitted at the same time the solar flare erupted on the sun,
what are the earliest and latest times that they could arrive at Earth?

Answer: The proton transit times range from 9 minutes to 17 minutes, so the arrival
times would be from 11:11:30 UT + 00:09:00 = 11:21:30 UT to 11:11:30 UT +
00:17:30 = 11:29:00 UT.

Problem 3 - Given the maximum likely speed of the protons, how soon after the x-ray
flare was detected at Earth did the solar protons start to arrive?

Answer: The flare X- rays arrived at 11:20:00 UT and the earliest protons arrived at
11:21:30 so the time difference is just one and a half minutes

Space Math [Link]

 Measuring Speed in the Universe 21
Objects in space move. To figure out how fast they move, astronomers use
many different techniques depending on what they are investigating. In this activity,
you will measure the speed of astronomical phenomena using the scaling clues and
the time intervals between photographs of three phenomena: A supernova explosion,
a coronal mass ejection, and a solar flare shock wave.

Problem 1: Supernova
1987A was photographed
7.7 years apart to study its
expanding shell of gas. What
is the speed of this material
shown in the photographs in:

A) light-years per year?

B) kilometers per second?
Measure the change in longest dimension of the inner blob of light. The
outer ring is about one light-year in diameter. The left-hand image was For more information, visit:
taken by the Hubble Space Telescope in March, 1995. The right-hand [Link]
image was taken in November, 2003. Note 1 light-year = 9.2 trillion newsdesk/archive/releases/2004/
km.

Problem 2: Closer to Earth,

solar storms provide another
example of violent motion.
How fast did this coronal
mass ejection travel in:

A) kilometers per second?

B) kilometers per day?

The white circle is the diameter of the sun (1.4 million km). CME observed by the SOHO
Images taken at 14:59 UT (left) and 15:21 UT (right). satellite on April 7, 1997.

Problem 3 – A solar flare on

July 9, 1996 caused a
phenomenon called a Morton
Wave to travel across the
sun’s surface. What was its
speed in:

A) kilometers per hour?

B) kilometers per second?

Each picture is 150 million meters on a side. The difference in More information:
time between the images is one hour. [Link]
/[Link]

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 21

Problem 1: Supernova 1987A was photographed 7.7 years apart to study its expanding
shell of gas. What is the speed of this material shown in the photographs in: A) light-years
(LY) per year? B) kilometers per second?

Answer: Using a millimeter ruler and the stated size of the image, the scale is about
30mm = 1 LY. The central ‘blob’ which is the supernova shell has an initial diameter of 5mm
and a final largest diameter of 10mm, so its radius has increased by 2.5mm which equals
(2.5mm/30mm)x 1LY = 0.085 LY. The difference in time between the images is 7.7 years so
7
A) 0.085 LY/7.7 yrs = 0.010 Light-years/year, and for 3.1 x 10 seconds in a year, B) 9.2 x
12 7
10 x 0.010/3.1x 10 = 3,100 km/sec.

Problem 2: Closer to Earth, solar storms provide another example of violent motion. How
fast did this coronal mass ejection travel in: A) kilometers per second? B) kilometers per
day?

Answer: The scale of the prints is about 7 mm = 1.4 million km. If you measure the distance
from the center of the sun circle to the outer edge of the CME in the lower left corner of each
picture, you get about 13.5 mm and 19 mm respectively. This equals a change in distance
of (5.5mm/7mm) x 1.4 million km = 1.1 million km. The difference in time between the two
images is 22 minutes or 1320 seconds, so A) the speed is about 1.1 million km/1320 sec =
833 km/sec. There are 24x60x60 = 86400 seconds in a day, so B) is about 833 x 86400 = 72
million km/day.

Problem 3 – A solar flare on July 9, 1996 caused a phenomenon called a Morton Wave to
travel across the sun’s surface. What was its speed in: A) kilometers per second? B)
kilometers per hour?

Answer: The image scale is 37 mm = 150 million meters. The circles represent the shock
wave, and the outer ring radius has increased from 7mm to 12mm in one hour. This is a
distance change of (5mm/37mm)x 150 million meters = 20 million meters or 20,000
kilometers. A) 20,000 kilometers/hour. B) There are 3600 seconds in an hour so
20,000/3600 = 5.6 km/sec.

Space Math [Link]

 Measuring the Speed of a Prominence with SDO 22
On April 21, 2010 NASA’s
Solar Dynamics Observatory
released its much-awaited ‘First
Light’ images of the Sun. Among
them was a sequence of images
taken on March 30, showing an
eruptive prominence ejecting
millions of tons of plasma into
space. A plasma is a gas
consisting of atoms stripped of
some of their electrons.
The three images to the left
show selected scenes from the
first ‘high definition’ movie of this
event. The top image was taken
at 17:50:49, the middle image at
18:02:09 and the bottom image at
18:13:29.

Problem 1 – The width of the

image is 300,000 kilometers.
Using a millimeter ruler, what is
the scale of these images in
kilometers/millimeter?

Problem 2 – If the Earth were

represented by a disk the size of a
penny (10 millimeters), on this
same scale how big was the loop
of the eruptive prominence in the
bottom image if the radius of
Earth is 6,378 kilometers?

Problem 3 – What was the

average speed of the prominence
in A) kilometers/second? B)
Kilometers/hour? C) Miles/hour?

For additional views of this prominence, see the NASA/SDO movies at:
[Link]

or to read the Press Release:

[Link]

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 22
Problem 1 – The width of the image is 300,000 kilometers. Using a millimeter ruler,
what is the scale of these images in kilometers/millimeter?

Answer: The width is 70 millimeters so the scale is 300,000 km/70 mm = 4,300

km/mm

Problem 2 – If the Earth were represented by a disk the size of a penny (10
millimeters), on this same scale how big was the loop of the eruptive prominence in the
bottom image if the radius of Earth is 6,378 kilometers?

Answer: The diameter of the loop is about 35 millimeters or 35mm x

4300km/mm = 150,000 km. The diameter of Earth is 13,000 km, so the loop is 12
times the diameter of Earth. At the scale of the penny, 13 penny/Earth’s can fit
across a scaled drawing of the loop.

Problem 3 – What was the average speed of the prominence in A) kilometers/second?

B) Kilometers/hour? C) Miles/hour?

Answer: Speed = distance traveled / time elapsed.

In the bottom image, draw a straight line from the lower right corner THROUGH the
peak of the coronal loop. Now draw this same line at the same angle on the other two
images. With a millimeter ruler, measure the distance along the line from the lower
right corner to the edge of the loop along the line. Example:
Top: 47 mm ;
Middle: 52 mm,
Bottom: 67 mm.
The loop has moved 67mm – 47mm = 20 millimeters. At the scale of the image this
equals 20mm x 4,300 km/mm so D = 86,000 km.

The time between the bottom and top images is 18:13:29 – 17:50:49 or 22minutes
and 40 seconds or 1360 seconds.

A) The average speed of the loop is then S = 86,000 km/1360 sec = 63 km/sec.

B) 63 km/sec x 3600 sec/hr = 227,000 km/hour.

C) 227,000 km/hr x 0.62 miles/km = 140,000 miles/hour.

Space Math [Link]

 STEREO Watches the Sun Kick Up a Storm! 23

A solar tsunami that occurred in February 13, 2009 has recently been identified in
the data from NASA's STEREO satellites. It was spotted rushing across the Sun's
surface. The blast hurled a billion-ton Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) into space and sent
a tsunami racing along the sun's surface. STEREO recorded the wave from two positions
separated by 90 degrees, giving researchers a spectacular view of the event. Satellite A
(STA) provided a side-view of the CME, while Satellite B (STB) viewed the CME from
directly above. The technical name for the 'tsunami' is a "fast-mode
magnetohydrodynamic wave" – or "MHD wave" for short. The one STEREO saw raced
outward at 560,000 mph (250 km/s) packing as much energy as 2,400 megatons of TNT.

Problem 1 - In the lower strip of images, the sun's disk is defined by the mottled circular
area, which has a physical radius of 696,000 kilometers. Use a millimeter ruler to
determine the scale of these images in kilometers/mm.

Problem 2 - The white circular ring defines the outer edge of the expanding MHD wave.
How many kilometers did the ring expand between 05:45 and 06:15? ( Note '05:45'
means 5:45 o'clock Universal Time).

Problem 3 - From your answers to Problem 1 and 2, what was the approximate speed of
this MHD wave in kilometers/sec?
2
Problem 4 - Kinetic Energy is defined by the equation K.E. = 1/2 m V where m is the
mass of the object in kilograms, and V is its speed in meters/sec. Suppose the mass of
the CME was about 1 million metric tons, use your answer to Problem 3 to calculate the
K.E., which will be in units of Joules.
12
Problem 5 - If 1 kiloton of TNT has the explosive energy of 4.1 x 10 Joules, how many
megatons of TNT does the kinetic energy of the tsunami represent?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 23
Problem 1 - In the lower strip of images, the sun's disk is defined by the mottled circular area,
which has a physical radius of 696,000 kilometers. Use a millimeter ruler to determine the
scale of these images in kilometers/mm.

Answer: The diameter is 31 millimeters ,which corresponds to 2 x 696,000 km or 1,392,000

km. The scale is then 1,392,000 km/31mm = 45,000 km/mm.

Problem 2 - The white circular ring defines the outer edge of the expanding MHD wave. How
many kilometers did the ring expand between 05:45 and 06:15? ( Note '05:45' means 5:45
o'clock Universal Time).

Answer: From the scale of 45,000 km/mm, the difference in the ring radii is 12mm - 5 mm =
7mm which corresponds to 7 mm x (45,000 km/1 mm) = 315,000 kilometers. Students
answers may vary depending on where they defined the outer edge of the ring.

Problem 3 - From your answers to Problem 1 and 2, what was the approximate speed of this
MHD wave in kilometers/sec?

Answer: The time difference is 06:15 - 05:45 = 30 minutes. The speed was about 315,000
km / 30 minutes = 11,000 kilometers/minute, which is 11,000 km/minute x (1 minute/60
seconds) = 180 kilometers/sec.

2
Problem 4 - Kinetic Energy is defined by the equation K.E. = 1/2 m V where m is the mass of
the object in kilograms, and V is its speed in meters/sec. Suppose the mass of the CME was
about 1 million metric tons, use your answer to Problem 3 to calculate the K.E., which will be in
units of Joules.

Answer: The mass of the CME was 1 billion metric tons. There are 1,000 kilograms in 1 metric
12
ton, so the mass was 1.0 x 10 kilograms. The speed is 180 km/sec which is 180,000
12 2 22
meters/sec. The kinetic energy is then about 0.5 x 1.0 x 10 x (180,000) = 1.6 x 10
Joules.

12
Problem 5 - If 1 kiloton of TNT has the explosive energy of 4.1 x 10 Joules, how many
megatons of TNT does the kinetic energy of the tsunami represent?
22 12 9
Amswer: 1.6 x 10 Joules x (1 kiloton TNT/4.1 x 10 Joules) = 3.9 x 10 kilotons TNT. Since 1
megaton = 1,000 kilotons, we have an explosive yield of 3,900,000 megatons TNT. (Note; this answer
differs from the STEREO estimate because the speed is approximate, and does not include the
curvature of the sun).

Teacher Note: Additional information, and movies of the event, can be found at the STEREO
website: [Link] Also published in the
Astrophysical Journal Letters (ApJ 700 L182-L186)

Space Math [Link]

 Measuring the Speed of a Solar Tsunami! 24
Moments after a major class X-6 solar flare erupted
at 18:43:59 Universal Time on December 6, 2006,
the National Solar Observatory's new Optical Solar
Patrol Camera captured a movie of a shock wave
'tsunami' emerging from Sunspot 930 and traveling
across the solar surface. The three images to the
left show the progress of this Morton Wave. The
moving solar gasses can easily be seen. You can
watch the entire movie and see it more clearly
([Link]
[Link]).
Note: because the event is seen near the
solar limb, there is quite a bit of fore-shortening so
the motion will appear slower than what the images
suggest.

Problem 1: From the portion of the sun's edge

shown in the images, complete the solar 'circle'.
What is the radius of the sun's disk in millimeters?

Problem 2: Given that the physical radius of the

sun is 696,000 kilometers, what is the scale of each
image in kilometers/millimeter?

Problem 3: Select a spot near the center of the

sunspot (large white spot in the image), and a
location on the leading edge of the shock wave.
What is the distance in kilometers from the center of
the sunspot, to the leading edge of the shock wave
in each image?

Problem 4: The images were taken at 18:43:05,

18:47:03 and 18:50:11 Universal Time. How much
elapsed time has occurred between these images?

Problem 5: From your answers to Problem 3 and 4,

what was the speed of the Morton Wave in
kilometers per hour between the three images? B)
did the wave accelerate or decelerate as it
expanded?

Problem 6: The speed of the Space Shuttle is

44,000 kilometers/hour. The speed of a passenger
jet is 900 kilometers/hour. Would the Morton Wave
have overtaken the passenger jet? The Space
Shuttle?

Space Math [Link]

 24
Answer Key:
Problem 1: From the portion of the sun's edge shown in the
images, complete the solar 'circle'. What is the radius of the
sun's disk in millimeters?

Answer: About 158 millimeters using a regular

dessert plate as a guide.

Problem 2: Given that the physical radius of the sun is

696,000 kilometers, what is the scale of each image in
kilometers/millimeter?

Answer: 696,000/158 = 4,405 kilometers/millimeter

Problem 3: What is the distance in kilometers from the center

of the sunspot, to the leading edge of the shock wave in each
image?

Answer:
Image 2 = 27 mm = 27x4405 = 119,000 km
Image 3 = 38 mm = 167,000 km

Problem 4: The images were taken at 18:43:05, 18:47:03 and

18:50:11 Universal Time. How much elapsed time has occurred
between these images?

Answer: Image 1 - Image 2 = 3 minutes 58 seconds

Image 2 - Image 3 = 3 minutes 8 seconds

Problem 5: From your answers to Problem 3 and 4, A) what

was the speed of the Morton Wave in kilometers per hour
between the three images?

Answer:
V12 = 119,000 km/3.9 min x (60 min/1 hr)
= 1.8 million kilometers/hour

V23 = 167,000/3.1 min x (60 min/1 hr)

= 3.2 million kilometers/hour

B) Did the speed of the wave accelerate or decelerate?

Answer: Because V23 > V12 the wave accelerated.

Problem 6: The speed of the Space Shuttle is 44,000

kilometers/hour. The speed of a passenger jet is 900
kilometers/hour. Would the Morton Wave have overtaken the
passenger jet? The Space Shuttle?

Answer: It would easily have overtaken the Space

Shuttle! Because of fore-shortening, the actual
speed of the wave was even higher than the
estimates from the images, so the speed could have
been well over 4 million km/hr.

Space Math [Link]

 Hinode Sees Moving Magnetic Filaments 25

These two images were taken by the Hinode solar observatory on October 30,
2006. The size of each image is 34,300 km on a side. The clock face shows the time
when each image was taken, and represents the face of an ordinary 12-hour clock.

Problem 1 - What is the scale of each image in kilometers per millimeter?

Problem 2 - What is the elapsed time between each image in; A) hours and minutes?
B) decimal hours? C) seconds?

Carefully study each image and look for at least 5 features that have changed their
location between the two images. (Hint, use the nearest edge of the image as a
reference).

Problem 3 - What direction are they moving relative to the sunspot?

Problem 4 - How far, in millimeters have they traveled on the image?

Problem 5 - From your answers to questions 1, 2 and 4, calculate their speed in

kilometers per second, and kilometers per hour.

Problem 6 - A fast passenger jet plane travels at 600 miles per hour. The Space Shuttle
travels 28,000 miles per hour. If 1.0 kilometer = 0.64 miles, how fast do these two craft
travel in kilometers per second?

Problem 7 - Can the Space Shuttle out-race any of the features you identified in the
sunspot image?

Space Math [Link]

 25
Answer Key:

Problem 1 - What is the scale of each image in kilometers per millimeter? Answer: The pictures are 75 mm
on a side, so the scale is 34,300 km /75mm = 457 km/mm

Problem 2 - What is the elapsed time between each image in;

A) hours and minutes? About 1 hour and 20 minutes.
B) decimal hours? About 1.3 hours
C) seconds? About 1.3 hours x 3600 seconds/hour = 4700 seconds

Carefully study each image and look for at least 5 features that have changed their location between the two
images. (Hint, use the nearest edge of the image as a reference). Students may also use transparent paper
or film, overlay the paper on each image, and mark the locations carefully.
The above picture shows one feature as an example.

Problem 3 - What direction are they moving relative to the sunspot?

Answer: Most of the features seem to be moving away from the sunspot.

Problem 4 - How far, in millimeters have they traveled on the image? Answer: The feature in the above
image has moved about 2 millimeters.

Problem 5 - From your answers to questions 1, 2 and 4, calculate their speed in kilometers per second, and
kilometers per hour. Answer: 2 mm x 457 km/mm = 914 kilometers in 4700 seconds = 0.2 kilometers/sec
or 703 kilometers/hour.

Problem 6 - A fast passenger jet plane travels at 600 miles per hour. The Space Shuttle travels 28,000
miles per hour. If 1.0 kilometer = 0.64 miles, how fast do these two craft travel in kilometers per second? Jet
speed = 600 miles/hr x ( 1 / 3600 sec/hr) x (1 km/0.64 miles) = 0.26 km/sec. Shuttle = 28,000 x (1/3600)
x (1/0.64) = 12.2 km/sec.

Problem 7 - Can the Space Shuttle out-race any of the features you identified in the sunspot image?
Answer: Yes, in fact a passenger plane can probably keep up with the feature in the example above!

Space Math [Link]

The Speed of a Coronal Mass Ejection 26
The last few days from November 6 - 9, 2004 were very active days
for solar and auroral events. A major sunspot group, AR 0696, with a
complex magnetic field produced several Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) and
flares during this time. (A CME is billion-ton cloud of gas ejected by the sun
at millions of kilometers per hour). The latest ones were an X2.0-class solar
flare on Nov 7, 16:06 UT and a CME. On November 9 and 12:00 UT, the
beginnings of a major geomagnetic storm started. The NOAA Space
Weather Bulletin announced that:
The Geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm
levels on 09 November due to the arrival of a CME associated with
the X2.0 flare observed on 07 November. Unsettled to minor storm
levels are expected on 10 November. Quiet to active levels are
expected on 11 November.

Many observers as far south as Texas and Oklahoma reported seeing

beautiful aurora on Sunday night from an earlier CME/flare combination on
Saturday, November 6th. In the space provided below, calculate the speed of
the CME as it traveled to Earth between November 7th - 9th assuming that
the distance to Earth is 93 million miles, or 147 million kilometers.

Problem 1 - How long did it take for the CME to arrive?

Problem 2 - What is the speed of the CME in miles per hour?

Problem 3 - What is the speed of the CME in kilometers per hour?

Problem 4 - What is the speed of the CME in miles per second?

Problem 5 - What is the speed of the CME in kilometers per second?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 26

The distance to the Earth is 93 million miles or 147 million kilometers.

Start time = November 7 at 16:06 UT
Arrival time = November 9 at 12:00 UT

Problem 1 - How long did it take for the CME to arrive?

Answer: November 7 at 16:06 UT to November 8 at 16:06 UT is 24 hours.
From Nov 8 at 16:06 to Nov 9 at 12:00 UT is
(24:00 - 16:06) + 12:00
= 7:54 + 12:00
= 19 hours and 54 minutes.
Total time = 24 hours + 19 hours and 54 minutes = 43 hours and 54 minutes.

Problem 2 - What is the speed of the CME in miles per hour?

Answer: In decimal units, the travel time from question 1 equals 43.9 hours.
The distance is 93 million miles so the speed is 93 million miles/43.9hours
or 2.1 million miles per hour.

Problem 3 - What is the speed of the CME in kilometers per hour?

Answer: Use the conversion that 1.0 miles = 1.6 kilometers, then
2.1 million miles/hour x 1.6 km/mile = 3.4 million kilometers per hour

Problem 4 - What is the speed of the CME in miles per second?

Answer: Convert hours to seconds by
1 hour x 60 minutes/hour x 60 seconds/minute = 3,600 seconds.
Then from question 2: 2.1 million miles/hour divided by 3600 seconds/hour
= 583 miles/second.

Problem 5 - What is the speed of the CME in kilometers per second?

Answer: From question 3 and the conversion of 1 hour = 3600 seconds:
3.4 million kilometers / second divided by 3600 seconds/hour
= 944 kilometers/sec.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar storm speeds 27
The sun often ejects clouds of
gases into space. Some of
these fast-moving clouds can
be directed at Earth.
Astronomers call them Coronal
Mass Ejections (or CMEs).
When these CMEs arrive, they
can cause spectacular
auroras, damage satellites, or
cause electrical blackouts.

In this exercise, you will learn

how scientists use the speeds
of these clouds to predict
when they will arrive at Earth. The sun ejects clouds of gas into space
carrying billions of tons of matter.

Scientists need to know how fast things move in order to study

where they come from and what causes them.

Here's how to do it!

 The speed of an The ACE satellite measures the speed of the solar wind
object is defined as and clouds of gas from the sun. Its sensor detects a cloud
the distance it moving at 980 kilometers per second. How long will it
travels divided by take for it to travel from the spacecraft to Earth, if the
the time it takes. distance is 1.5 million kilometers?

Now you try!

Answer: Time = (1,500,000 km) / (980 km/sec)
= 1,530 seconds

The table shows cloud speeds measured in

Cloud Speeds kilometers per second. Assume that the clouds
detected by the ACE satellite were the CMEs
Date Speed produced on the sun.
(km/s)
5-10-02 423.0 1) What was the fastest speed measured?
5-18-02 497.0
5-23-02 897.0 2) What was the slowest speed measured?
7-12-02 548.0
7-20-02 931.0
7-23-02 516.0 3) What was the average speed measured?
9-19-02 756.0
1-11-02 647.0
4) What is the fastest speed in miles per hour?
1-19-02 455.0
3-05-02 705.0
5) If the sun is 150 million kilometers from
3-18-02 480.0
Earth, how many hours would it take the fastest
3-29-02 379.0 and the slowest CMEs to reach Earth?
4-01-02 795.0
8-10-02 469.0

Space Math [Link]

 27
Answer Key

Problem 1 - 931 kilometers/sec

Problem 2 - 379 kilometers/sec

Problem 3 - 8498/14 = 607 kilometers/sec

Problem 4 - (931) x (3600) x 0.62 = 2.1 million miles/hour

Problem 5 - Fastest: 150,000,000/931 = 161.000 seconds or 44.8 hours

Slowest: 150,000,000/379 = 396,000 seconds or 110 hours

Space Math [Link]

 STEREO Sees Comet Encke's Tail Disrupted by a CME 28
On April 20, 2007, NASA's STEREO satellite witnessed a rare solar system event. The Comet
Encke had just passed inside the orbit of Venus and was at a distance of 114 million kilometers from
STEREO-A ,when a Coronal Mass Ejection occurred on the sun. The cloud of magnetized gas passed over
the comet's tail at 18:50 UT, and moments later caused the tail of the comet to break into two. The two
images below show two images from the tail breakup sequence. The left image was taken at 18:10
UT and the right image was taken at 20:50 UT. Each image subtends an angular size of 6.4 degrees x 5.3
degrees. For comparison, the Full Moon would correspond to a circle with a diameter of 0.5 degrees.

Problem 1 - What is the scale of the images in arcminutes per millimeter? (1 degree=60 arcminutes)

Problem 2 - How many seconds elapsed between the time the two images were taken by the
STEREO-A satellite?

Problem 3 - The left image shows the comet with an intact tail. The right image shows the tail
separated from the head of the comet (the right-most bright feature along the comet’s horizontal axis
which we will call Point A), and flowing to the left. Meanwhile, you can see that the comet has
already begun to reform a new tail. Carefully examine the right-hand image and identify the right-
most end of the ejected tail (Call it Point B). Note that star images do not move, and are more nearly
point-like than the tail gases. How far, in millimeters, is Point B from Point A?

Problem 4 - From the image scale, convert your answer to Problem 3 into arcminutes.

Problem 5 - The distance of the comet was 114 million kilometers, and at that distance, one
arcminute of angular separation corresponds to 33,000 kilometers. How far did the tail fragment
travel between the times of the two images?

Problem 6 - What was the speed of the tail fragment?

Problem 7 - If the comet's speed was about 40 km/sec and the CME speed was at least several
hundred times faster, based on your answer to Problem 6, was the comet fragment 'left behind' or
did the CME carry it off?

Space Math [Link]

 28

Answer Key:
Problem 1 - What is the scale of the images in arcminutes per millimeter? (1 degree=60
arcminutes)

Answer: horizontally, the image span 6.4 degrees x 60 minutes/degree = 384 arcminutes. The
length is 77 millimeters, so the scale is 384/77 = 5.0 arcminutes/mm

Problem 2 - How many seconds elapsed between the time the two images were taken by the
STEREO-A satellite?

Answer: 20:50 - 18:10 = 2 hours and 40 minutes = 160 minutes or 9600 seconds.

Problem 3 - The left image shows the comet with an intact tail. The right image shows the tail
separated from the head of the comet (the right-most bright feature along the comets horizontal axis
which we will call Point A), and flowing to the left. Meanwhile, you can see that the comet has
already begun to reform a new tail. Carefully examine the right-hand image and identify the right-
most end of the ejected tail (Call it Point B). Note that star images do not move, and are more nearly
point-like than the tail gases. How far, in millimeters, is Point B from Point A?

Answer: An answer near 17 millimeters is acceptable, but students may measure from 15 to 20
millimeters as reasonable answers.

Problem 4 - From the image scale, convert your answer to Problem 3 into arcminutes.

Answer: 17 millimeters x 5 arcminutes/mm = 85 arcminutes.

Problem 5 - The distance of the comet was 114 million kilometers, and at that distance, one
arcminute of angular separation corresponds to 33,000 kilometers. How far did the tail fragment
travel between the times of the two images?

Answer: 85 arcminutes x 33,000 kilometers/arcminute = 2.8 million kilometers.

Problem 6 - What was the speed of the tail fragment?

Answer: 2.8 million kilometers/9600 seconds = 292 kilometers/second.

Problem 7 - If the comet's speed was about 40 km/sec and the CME speed was at least several
hundred times faster, based on your answer to Problem 6, was the comet fragment 'left behind' or
did the CME carry it off?
Answer: The speed in Problem 6 is much closer to the CME speed than the comet speed, so
the fragment was carried off by the CME and not ejected by the comet.

This collision was studied in detail by Dr. Angelos Vourlidas and his colleagues at the Naval
Research laboratory in Washington, D.C and the Rutherford Laboratory in England. They deduced
from a more careful analysis that the CME speed was about 500 km/sec and the solar wind speed
was about 420 km/sec. The tail fragment was carried off by the CME. Details can be found in The
Astrophysical Journal (Letters), vol. 668, pp L79-L82 which was published on October 10, 2007. A movie of
the encounter may be seen at the STEREO web site ( [Link] in their movie gallery.

Space Math [Link]

 An Interplanetary Shock Wave 29

Sun - CME Earth - Aurora Saturn - Aurora

On November 8, 2000 the sun ejected a billion-ton cloud of gas called a
coronal mass ejection or CME. On November 12, the CME collided with Earth and
produced a brilliant aurora detected from space by the IMAGE satellite.
On December 8, the Hubble Space Telescope detected an aurora on Saturn.
During the period from November to December, 2000, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn
were almost lined-up with each other. Assuming that the three planets were located
on a straight line drawn from the sun to Saturn, with distances from the sun of 150
million, 778 million and 1.43 billion kilometers respectively, answer the questions
below:

Problem 1 – How many days did the disturbance take to reach Earth and Saturn?

Problem 2 – What was the average speed of the CME in its journey between the
Sun and Earth in millions of km per hour?

Problem 3 – What was the average speed of the CME in its journey between Earth
and Saturn in millions of km per hour?

Problem 4 – Did the CME accelerate or decelerate as it traveled from the Sun to
Saturn?

Problem 5 – How long would the disturbance have taken to reach Jupiter as it
passed Earth’s orbit?

Problem 6 – On what date would you have expected to see aurora on Jupiter?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 29

On November 8, 2000 the sun ejected a billion-ton cloud of gas called a coronal mass
ejection or CME. On November 12, the CME collided with Earth and produced a brilliant
aurora detected from space by the IMAGE satellite. On December 8, the Hubble Space
telescope detected an aurora on Saturn. During the period from November to December,
2000, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn were almost lined-up with each other. Assuming that the
three planets were located on a straight line drawn from the sun to Saturn, with distances
from the sun of 150 million, 778 million and 1.43 billion kilometers respectively, answer the
questions below:

1 – How many days did the disturbance take to reach Earth and Saturn?
Answer: Earth = 4 days; Saturn = 30 days.

2 – What was the average speed of the CME in its journey between the Sun and Earth in
millions of km per hour? Answer: Sun to Earth = 150 million km. Time = 4 days x 24 hrs =
96 hrs so Speed = 150 million km/96hr = 1.5 million km/hr.

3 – What was the average speed of the CME in its journey between Earth and Saturn in
millions of km per hour? Answer: Distance = 1,430 – 150 = 1,280 million km. Time = 30
days x 24h = 720 hrs so Speed = 1,280 million km/720hrs = 1.8 million km/hr.

4 – Did the CME accelerate or decelerate as it traveled from the Sun to Saturn? Answer:
The CME accelerated from 1.5 million km/hr to 1.8 million km/hr.

5 – How long would the disturbance have taken to reach Jupiter as it passed Earth’s orbit?
Answer: Jupiter is located 778 million km from the Sun or (778 – 150 = ) 628 million km
from Earth. Because the CME is accelerating, it is important that students realize that it is
more accurate to use the average speed of the CME between Earth and Saturn which is
(1.8 + 1.5)/2 = 1.7 million km/hr. The travel time to Jupiter is then 628/1.7 = 369 hours.

6 – On what date would you have expected to see aurora on Jupiter? Answer: Add 369
hours ( ~ 15 days) to the date of arrival at Earth to get November 23. According to radio
observations of Jupiter, the actual date of the aurora was November 20. Note: If we had
used the Sun-Earth average speed of 1.5 million km/hr to get a travel time of 628/1.5 = 418
hours, the arrival date would have been November 29, which is 9 days later than the actual
storm. This points out that the CME was accelerating after passing Earth, and its speed was
between 1.5 and 1.8 million km/hr.

For more details about this interesting research, read the article by Renee Prange et al. “An
Interplanetary Shock Traced by Planetary Auroral Storms from the Sun to Saturn” published
in the journal Nature on November 4, 2004, vol. 432, p. 78. Also visit the Physics Web online
article “Saturn gets a shock” at [Link]

Space Math [Link]

 CME Kinetic Energy and Mass 30
Kinetic energy is the energy that a
body has by virtue of its mass and speed.
Mathematically, it is expressed as one-half
of the product of the mass of the object (in
kilograms), times the square of the objects
speed (in meters/sec).

K.E. = 0.5 m V2

Between October 1996 and May

2006, the SOHO satellite detected and
cataloged 11,031 coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) like the one seen in the figure to the
left. There was enough data available to
determine the properties for 2,131 events.
The table below gives values for ten of these
CMEs.

Date Speed K.E. Mass

(km/s) (Joules) (kilograms)
4/8/1996 20 9
1.1 x 10 2.2 x 10
8/22/2000 388 22
1.3 x 10
6/10/2001 731 23
8.2 x 10
1/18/2002 64 10
2.6 x 10
5/16/2002 1,310 10
7.8 x 10
10/7/2002 21 10
7.8 x 10 3.0 x 10
1/24/2003 387 18
9.1 x 10
10/31/2003 2,198 24
1.6 x 10
11/2/2003 25 13
9.3 x 10 4.5 x 10
11/10/2004 3,387 12
9.6 x 10

Problem 1 - Complete the table by determining the value of the missing entries using the
formula for Kinetic Energy.

Problem 2 - What is the minimum and maximum range for the observed kinetic energies for
the 10 CMEs? The largest hydrogen bomb ever tested was the Tsar Bomba in 1961 and was
23
equivalent to 50 megatons of TNT. It had a yield of 5 x 10 Joules. What is the equivalent
yield for the largest CME in megatons, and 'Tsar Bombas'?

Problem 3 - What are the equivalent masses of the smallest and largest CMEs in metric tons?

Problem 4 - Compare the mass of the largest CME to the mass of a small mountain. Assume
2
that the mountain can be represented as a cone with a volume given by 1/3 π R H where R
is the base radius and H is the height in meters, and assume the density of rock is 3
3
grams/cm .

Space Math [Link]

 30
Date Speed K.E. Mass
(km/s) (Joules) (kilograms)
4/8/1996 316 20 9
1.1 x 10 2.2 x 10
8/22/2000 388 22
1.3 x 10 1.7 x 1011
6/10/2001 731 23
8.2 x 10 3.1 x 1012
1/18/2002 64 5.3 x 1019 10
2.6 x 10
5/16/2002 1,310 6.7 x 1022 10
7.8 x 10
10/7/2002 721 21 10
7.8 x 10 3.0 x 10
1/24/2003 387 18
9.1 x 10 1.2 x 108
10/31/2003 2,198 24
1.6 x 10 6.6 x 1011
11/2/2003 2,033 25 13
9.3 x 10 4.5 x 10
11/10/2004 3,387 5.5 x 1025 12
9.6 x 10

Problem 1: Complete the table by determining the value of the missing entries using the
formula for Kinetic Energy.
Answer: See above answers.

Problem 2: What is the minimum and maximum range for the observed kinetic energies
for the 10 CMEs?
25 19
Answer: Maximum = 9.3 x 10 Joules. Minimum = 5.3 x 10 Joules
The largest hydrogen bomb ever tested was the Tsar Bomba in 1961 and was equivalent
23
to 50 megatons of TNT. It had a yield of 5 x 10 Joules. What is the equivalent yield for
the largest CME in megatons, and 'Tsar Bombas'?
Answer: The CME on November 2, 2003 was equal to
25 23
(9.3 x 10 /5 x 10 ) = 186 Tsar Bombas,
and an equivalent TNT yield of 186 x 50 megatons = 9,300 megatons!

Problem 3: What are the equivalent masses of the smallest and largest CMEs in metric
tons?
Answer: One metric ton is 1,000 kilograms. The smallest mass was for the
January 24, 2003 CME with about 120,000 tons. The largest mass was for the November
2, 2003 'Halloween Storm' with about 45 billion metric tons.

Problem 4: Compare the mass of the largest CME to the mass of a small mountain.
Assume that the mountain can be represented as a cone with a volume given by
2
V = 1/3 π R H where R is the base radius and H is the height in meters, and assume
3
the density of rock is 3 grams/cm .

Answer: One possibility is for a mountain with a base radius of R = 1 kilometers, and a
2 7
height of 50 meters. The cone volume is 0.33 x 3.14 x (1000) x 50 = 5.2 x 10 cubic
3
meters. The rock density of 3 gm/cm converted into kg per cubic meters is 0.003
3 3
kg/(.01) = 3000 kg/m . This yields a mountain with a mass of 156 billion tons, which is
close to the largest CME mass in the table. So CMEs, though impressive in size, carry no
more mass than a small hill on Earth!

Space Math [Link]

 Estimating Halo CME Speeds 31
Frames Cadence (seconds)
10 15 20 25 30 35
1 2333 1556 1167 933 778 667
2 1167 778 583 467 389 333
3 778 519 389 311 259 222
4 583 389 292 233 194 167
5 467 311 233 187 156 133

The SOHO satellite LASCO

instrument takes images of the sun every
24 seconds in order to detect the
movement of coronal mass ejections such
as the one shown in the image to the left.
The circles indicate the scale of the image
in multiples of the solar radius (690,000
kilometers). By counting the number of
consecutive frames required for the CME
to move between circles B and D, the
speed of the CME can be estimated.

The table above gives the speed of the CME in kilometers/sec, based on the time
between the frames (cadence) and the number of frames required for the CME to move
from Circle B to D.

Problem 1 - An astronomer watches the CME on one satellite which has a cadence of
15 seconds between frames, and it moves from B to D in 5 frames. A second satellite has
a cadence of 35 seconds. How many frames will the second satellite require to see the
CME move the same distance?

Problem 2 - Using this method, an astronomer wants to observe very fast CMEs with
speeds between 934 and 4,666 km/sec. What must the cadence be for these
measurements to be possible?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 31
Problem 1 - An astronomer watches the CME on one satellite which has a cadence of
15 seconds between frames, and it moves from B to D in 5 frames. A second satellite
has a cadence of 35 seconds. How many frames will the second satellite require to
see the CME move the same distance?

Answer: From the first satellite and the table, the speed is 311 km/sec. If the
cadence of the second satellite is 35 seconds, it will see the CME move the same
distance in about 2 frames.

Problem 2 - Using this method, an astronomer wants to observe very fast CMEs with
speeds between 934 and 4,666 km/sec. What must the cadence be for these
measurements to be possible?

Answer: The speeds are twice as fast as the range of speeds measurable with a
cadence of 10 seconds/frame. Because for a given number of frames the speed
is linear with the cadence, reducing the cadence to 5 seconds/frame the required
speeds can be measured within an interval of 5 frames.

Space Math [Link]

 Estimating Halo CME Arrival Times 32
Speed Distance from the Sun in Astronomical Units
(km/s) 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2
300 139 153 167 181 194 208 222 236 250 264 278
400 104 115 125 135 146 156 167 177 188 198 208
500 83 92 100 108 117 125 133 142 150 158 167
600 69 76 83 90 97 104 111 118 125 132 139
700 60 65 71 77 83 89 95 101 107 113 119
800 52 57 63 68 73 78 83 89 94 99 104
900 46 51 56 60 65 69 74 79 83 88 93
1000 42 46 50 54 58 63 67 71 75 79 83
1100 38 42 45 49 53 57 61 64 68 72 76
1200 35 38 42 45 49 52 56 59 63 66 69
1300 32 35 38 42 45 48 51 54 58 61 64
1400 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60
1500 28 31 33 36 39 42 44 47 50 53 56
1600 26 29 31 34 36 39 42 44 47 49 52
1700 25 27 29 32 34 37 39 42 44 47 49
1800 23 25 28 30 32 35 37 39 42 44 46
1900 22 24 26 29 31 33 35 37 39 42 44
2000 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 38 40 42
2100 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40
2200 19 21 23 25 27 28 30 32 34 36 38
2300 18 20 22 24 25 27 29 31 33 34 36
2400 17 19 21 23 24 26 28 30 31 33 35
2500 17 18 20 22 23 25 27 28 30 32 33
2600 16 18 19 21 22 24 26 27 29 30 32
2700 15 17 19 20 22 23 25 26 28 29 31
2800 15 16 18 19 21 22 24 25 27 28 30
2900 14 16 17 19 20 22 23 24 26 27 29
3000 14 15 17 18 19 21 22 24 25 26 28

The shaded values in the table above give the arrival times (in hours) to the
various distances in Astronomical Units, given the speed of the coronal mass ejection
(CME) indicated in the first column. The distance from Earth to the sun (150 million
km) is defined to be exactly 1 Astronomical Unit (1.0 AU). A 'Halo' CME is an
explosive expulsion of heated gas from the sun directed towards Earth.

Problem 1 - Suppose that the planet Earth and Mars are in opposition, which means
that a straight line can be drawn from the center of the sun directly through the
centers of Earth and Mars. Astronomers at Earth detect a CME leaving the sun at a
speed of 1500 km/sec. When will this CME arrive at Earth and how long afterwards
will it arrive at Mars located at a distance of 1.5 AU?

Problem 2 - A CME leaves the sun at a speed of 900 km/sec on July 4, 2015 at
13:00 UT. On what dates and times will it arrive at A) Earth? B) Mars? C) An asteroid
located at 1.9 AU?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 32
Problem 1 - Suppose that the planet Earth and Mars are in opposition, which means
that a straight line can be drawn from the center of the sun directly through the centers
of Earth and Mars. Astronomers at Earth detect a CME leaving the sun at a speed of
1500 km/sec. When will this CME arrive at Earth (1.0 AU) and how long afterwards will
it arrive at Mars located at a distance of 1.5 AU?

Answer: From the table, look at the row for '1500' in Column 1 and under '1.0' AU the
time for arrival at Earth is about 26 hours. In the column for Mars at '1.5' the arrival
time is 39 hours, so it takes 13 additional hours for the CME to arrive at Mars.

Problem 2 - A CME leaves the sun at a speed of 900 km/sec on July 4, 2015 at 13:00
UT. On what dates and times will it arrive at A) Earth? B) Mars? C) An asteroid
located at 1.9 AU?

Answer: A) The transit time to Earth is 46 hours so adding 46 hours to the given date
and time we get an additional 1 day and 22 hours so July 4, 2015 at 13:00 + 1 day
and 22:00 gives July 5, 2015 at 35:00 which becomes July 6, 2015 at 11:00 UT.

B) The transit time is 69 hours or 2 days + 21 hours, which gives July 6, 2015 and
34:00 or July 7, 2015 at 10:00 UT.

C) The transit time is 88 hours or 3 days and 16:00 which becomes July 7, 2015 at
29:00 or July 8, 2015 at 05:00 UT.

Space Math [Link]

 Histogram of Halo CME Speeds: 1996-2008 33
During the past sunspot cycle,
Speed N Speed N Speed N there were nearly 2,000 events, called
(km/s) (km/s) (km/s) coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in
0 1 1000 20 2000 9 which the sun ejected huge clouds of
100 6 1100 22 2100 3 plasma into space. When directed at
200 8 1200 14 2200 4 earth, these clouds can arrive within a
300 19 1300 21 2300 3 few days and cause disturbances in
400 38 1400 13 2400 4 Earth's magnetic field, called
500 33 1500 14 2500 4 geomagnetic storms.
600 33 1600 11 2600 2 The arrival time is determined by
700 25 1700 12 2700 0 the transit speed. The table to the left
800 30 1800 9 2800 1 gives the speeds for a sample of Earth-
900 30 1900 7 directed CMEs.

Problem 1 - Create a histogram of the frequency data in the table.

Problem 2 - For this distribution of CME speeds, what are the A) mean speed?
B) median speed?

Problem 3 - If the distance to the sun from Earth is 150 million kilometers, what is
the average transit time, in days, represented by the histogram of CME speeds?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 33
Problem 1 - Create a histogram of the frequency data in the table.

40
Number of Halo CMEs

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
0

00
0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00
20

40

60

80

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28
Speed (km/s)

Problem 2 - For this distribution of CME speeds, what are the A) mean speed? B)
median speed?

Answer: A) From the table, the average speed is found by the sun of the products of
the speeds and Ns divided by the total number of tabulated CMEs which equals 395
events, so Va = (388700/395) so Va = 984 km/sec.
B) The median speed is the speed for which half of the events are below and half are
above. From the table, N = 395/2 = 197, so Vm = 800 km/sec.

Problem 3 - If the distance to the sun from Earth is 150 million kilometers, what is the
average transit time, in days, represented by the histogram of CME speeds?

Answer: T = 150 million km / 984 km/s so T = 152,632 seconds which is about 42.4
hours or T = 1.8 days.

Space Math [Link]

 Predicting the Direction of Motion of a CME 34
Although we cannot accurately
determine the direction of travel of a
coronal mass ejection (CME), images
taken from one vantage point can
often be used to learn the approximate
direction of travel.
The diagram shows four CMEs
ejected by the sun in 4 quadrants. The
lower quadrant includes Earth. CMEs
ejected into this quadrant often look
like halos of gas (lower left image) as
do CMEs ejected from the far-side of
the sun (top quadrant). CMEs in the
other two quadrants look like the
remaining two images.

Problem 1 - The red dot in the diagram is the planet Mars. Which of the CMEs
shown in the views above may be directed towards an eventual arrival at Mars?

Problem 2 - Suppose the above images were taken by a solar observatory orbiting
Mars. Which of the CMEs might eventually collide with Earth - the blue dot in the
diagram?

Problem 3 - Halo CMEs, such as the one in the right-hand image, are moving either
towards the observer or directly away, having been ejected either from active regions
on the near-side of the sun or the far-side. Radio bursts are often detected just
before a CME is ejected. If a radio burst was not detected from a halo CME, is it
headed towards Earth or away from Earth?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 34
Problem 1 - The red dot in the diagram is the planet Mars. Which of the CMEs shown
in the view above may be directed towards an eventual arrival at Mars?

Answer: The first CME on the far-left is most likely headed in the general
direction of Mars.

Problem 2 - Suppose the above images were taken by a solar observatory orbiting
Mars. Which of the CMEs might eventually collide with Earth - the blue dot in the
diagram?
Answer: From the location of Mars, the first CME on the far-left would be headed
directly away from Earth. The CME on the far-right is headed towards Mars, and
so the middle CME is headed in the general direction of Earth.

Problem 3 - Halo CMEs, such as the one in the right-hand image, are moving either
towards the observer or directly away, having been ejected either from active regions
on the near-side of the sun or the far-side. Radio bursts are often detected just before
a CME is ejected. If a radio burst was not detected from a halo CME, is it headed
towards Earth or away from Earth?

Answer: Because radio waves cannot pass through the sun, halo CMEs that are
not accompanied by radio bursts are probably far-side events traveling directly
away from Earth, while halo CMEs with radio bursts are on the near-side of the
sun and may be headed towards Earth.

Space Math [Link]

 A Bird’s-Eye Look at the Sun-Earth System 35

Solar flares are powerful releases of energy in the tangled

A_magnetic fields of the sun, thousands of kilometers above certain
sunspots. Within a few minutes, these B________ attempt to reconnect
themselves into simpler shapes, releasing their stored energy. This
energy heats the local C______ to millions of degrees, producing
tremendous blasts of x-ray and gamma ray energy. Within 8.5 minutes,
this D_______ energy can reach Earth and disrupt the ionosphere. The
E_________ is the region of our atmosphere where radio waves can
be reflected back to the ground so that we can send radio programs
and messages around the world. But during F________, radio
broadcasting can be shut down for hours.
Scientists eventually discovered that, in addition to flares,
discharges of plasma from the sun could also occur. With satellite
sensors in space, they eventually caught sight of how the sun could Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
from time to time release billions of tons of plasma traveling at millions seen by SOHO satellite.
of miles per hour. When these magnetized plasma clouds wash across
Earth’s magnetic field – called the G__________, these clouds can
dump huge amounts of matter and energy into Earth’s environment.
H______ and magnetic storms are often the consequence of these
I__________________.
The entire Earth-Sun system follows a complicated give-and-
take when severe solar J______ occur. Earth counteracts this
onslaught of plasma and energy by a complex series of adjustments
only available to it because it has a powerful magnetic field. With the
magnetic field, most of the solar storm energy is diverted. What little
enters the magnetosphere eventually finds its way into circulating
K__________ which return some, but not all of the magnetospheric
plasma back to the solar wind – a constant stream of matter that leaves
the solar surface. Solar storms cause Earth’s magnetic field to be
pulled into the shape of a L_______. The distant M___________ can
snap like pulled taffy as it attempts to relieve the magnetic stresses
building up in the system. The released energy causes currents of
N______________ to flow into the upper atmosphere where they IMAGE sees Earth’s upper
collide with atoms of oxygen and nitrogen to produce the spectacular atmosphere – the Plasmasphere.
displays of the Aurora Borealis and O_______________.

-4 = Ring current -9 = ionosphere 4 = electromagnetic

0 = Magnetotail -3 = solar flares 10 = oxygen

3 = Plasma 8 = corona 1 = Coronal Mass Ejection

-7 = Sunspot -1 = magnetosphere -11 = stratosphere

2 = Aurora 11 = atmosphere 12 = plasmasphere

-10 = Ozone layer 6 = magnetic fields 5 = Aurora Australis

-6 = Comet 9 = sphere -8 = photosphere

7 = Fields -2 = storms -5 = charged particles

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 35

Solve these equations for X to find the number in the Word Bank. Write the word on the
indicated lettered line in the essay, then answer the questions below.

A (x – 2) – 4 = 0 Answer: x= 6. From Word Bank 6 = ‘magnetic fields’

B 2(3-x) + 8 = 0

C 8x – 2(2x –4) + 4( 4 – 3x) = 0

D –3x + 4 = 5x – 28

E -15 – 2x = 3(x + 10)

F 4x – 4 – ( 3x – 4) +3 = 0

G -(2x – 3) – (8 + 3x) = 0

H -(4x – 18) + 4(4 – 2x) –2(3x-1) = 0

I -( 3-4x) + 2(5-6x) –6 = 3(2x – 5) –(x-3)

J -(2x + 8) +6x = -16

K 3( 2x + 10) + 3x + 6 = 0

L -x + 3(2x – 5) +3x = 2x - 51

M -x + 5 + (3x – 2) + 6 = 3(x + 3) – 2x

N -6(x+5) = 0

O 5(x + 5) + 10 ( x – 3) = 70

Question 1: Do the particles that cause aurora come from Earth’s environment or directly
from the Sun?

Question 2: What is a Coronal Mass Ejection?

Question 3: What roles do magnetic fields play in causing disturbances on the sun and
Earth?

Question 4: Where does the energy come from to cause solar storms and aurora?

Question 5: How does Earth’s magnetic field prevent solar storms from reaching the
atmosphere?

Space Math [Link]

 The Bow Shock 36
When the solar wind flows past
Earth, it pushes on Earth’s
magnetic field and compresses it.
There is a point in space called
the magnetopause where the
pressure of the solar wind
balances the outward pressure of
Earth’s magnetic field. The
distance from the Earth, R, (white
arrow in drawing) where these
two pressures are balanced is
given by the equation:

In this equation, D is the density in grams per cubic centimeter

(cc) of the gas (solar wind, etc) that collides with Earth’s
magnetic field, and V is the speed of this gas in centimeters per
second. Let’s do an example to see how this equation works!

The solar wind has a typical speed of 450 km/s or equivalently V = 4.5 x 107 cm/s. To find the
density of the solar wind in grams/cc we have to do a two-step calculation. The wind usually has
a particle density of about 5 particles/cc, and since these particles are typically protons (each
with a mass of 1.6 x 10-24 gm) the density is then 5 x (1.6 x 10-24 gm)/cc so that D = 1.28 x 10-23
gm/cc.
We substitute D and V into the equation and get R6 = 1105242.6. so that R =
(1105242.6)1/6. To solve this, we use a calculator with a key labeled Yx First type ‘1105242.6’
and hit the ‘Enter’ key. Then type ‘0.1666’ (which equals 1/6) and press the YX key. In this
case the answer will be ’10.16’ and it represents the value of R in multiples of the radius of
Earth (6378 kilometers). Scientists simplify the mathematical calculation by using the radius of
Earth as their unit of distance, but if you want to convert 10.16 Earth radii to kilometers, just
multiply it by ‘6378 km’ which is the radius of Earth to get 64,800 kilometers. That is the
distance from the center of Earth to the magnetopause where the magnetic pressure is equal to
the solar wind pressure for the selected speed and density. These will change significantly
during a ‘solar storm’.
Now lets apply this example to finding the magnetopause distance for some of the storms
that have encountered Earth in the last five years. Complete the table below, rounding the
answer to three significant figures:

Storm Date Day Density Speed R

Of Year (particle/cc) (km/s) (km)
1 11/20/2003 324 49.1 630
2 10/29/2003 302 10.6 2125
3 11/06/2001 310 15.5 670
4 3/31/2001 90 70.6 783
5 7/15/2000 197 4.5 958

Question: The fastest speed for a solar storm ‘cloud’ is 1500 km/s. What must the
density be in order that the magnetopause is pushed into the orbits of the
geosynchronous communication satellites at 6.6 Re?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 36

The information about these storms and other events can be obtained from the NASA
ACE satellite by selecting data for H* density and Vx (GSE)

[Link]

Storm Date Day Density Speed R

Of Year (particle/cc) (km/s) (km)
1 11/20/2003 324 49.1 630 42,700
2 10/29/2003 302 10.6 2125 37,000
3 11/06/2001 310 15.5 670 51,000
4 3/31/2001 90 70.6 783 37,600
5 7/15/2000 197 4.5 958 54,800

Question: The fastest speed for a solar storm ‘cloud’ is 3000 km/s. What must
the density be in order that the magnetopause is pushed into the orbits of the
geosynchronous communication satellites at 6.6 Re (42,000 km)?

Answer: Solve the equation for D to get:

For 1500 km/s V = 1.5 x 108 cm/s, and for R = 6.6, we have

D = 0.72/ ( 8 x 3.14 x 6.66 x (1.5 x 108)2) = 1.52 x 10-23 gm/cc

Since a proton has a mass of 1.6 x 10-24 grams, this value for the density, D, is equal to
(1.52 x 10-23/ 1.6 x 10-24) = 9.5 protons/cc.

For Extra Credit, have students compute the density if the solar storm pushed the
magnetopause to the orbit of the Space Station (about R = 1.01 RE).
Answer: D = 3 x 10-19 gm/cc or 187,000 protons/cc. A storm with this density has
never been detected, and would be catastrophic!

Space Math [Link]

The Van Allen Belts and the Geomagnetic Indices 37
The GOES satellites, which orbit
Earth, have detectors that can measure
Kp Dst Dst Total the intensity of the protons and
-50 to -99 < -100 electrons that make up the van Allen
nT nT Radiation Belts.
9 0 8 8 Since a number of important
8 0 15 15 satellite systems including the well-
7 13 35 48 known GPS constellation operate within
Total 13 58 61 the van Allen belts, it is important to
know just how solar storms can change
the environment near these satellites.

Between May 15, 1997 and December 31, 2003 a total of 753 daily
measurements were made of the intensity of the electrons and protons in the
vicinity of the NOAA-15 satellite for all days where the intensity index, B, was 2 or
greater. Two magnetic disturbance indices were used to predict the belt intensity
index, B. During this 753-day ensemble, the table above indicates the number of
days that the two magnetic indices showed significant activity.

Problem 1 - Given that the proton and electron levels are enhanced, what is the
probability that either or both of the magnetic indices will also be enhanced?

Problem 2 - The radiation belt indices can be split into an electron and a proton
index. During the 71 days that Kp > 6, the electron index registered 11 days when
the Be > 10.0. The proton index registered 34 days during which Bp > 10.0.
Which index appears to be the most affected by the geomagnetic conditions
measured by Kp for severe storms?

Problem 3 - For the 71 days for which Kp > 6 geomagnetic conditions existed,
there were 18 days during which Dst < -200. Among these 18 days, Be > 10.0 for
3 days and Bp > 10 for 11 days. There were 40 days for which Dst was
between -100 and -199. Of these days, Be > 10 for 6 days and Bp > 10 for 15
days. Are the electron and proton belts more active during days when Dst has its
largest negative values?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 37
Radiation belt indices from [Link]

Problem 1 - Given that the proton and electron levels are enhanced, what is the
probability that either or both of the magnetic indices will also be enhanced?

Answer: Out of the 753 days, only 61 days had enhanced geomagnetic indices so the
probability is 100% x (61/753) = 8%. This means that, given the belt index is high,
there is only a 1 chance in 12 that the geomagnetic indices will also be elevated.

Problem 2 - The radiation belt indices can be split into an electron and a proton index.
During the 71 days that Kp > 6, the electron index registered 11 days when the Be >
10.0. The proton index registered 34 days during which Bp > 10.0. Which index
appears to be the most affected by the geomagnetic conditions measured by Kp for
severe storms?

Answer: The proton index recorded nearly three times as many days of disturbance
as the electron index, so the proton belt seems to be the most affected by the
geomagnetic conditions during severe storms.

Problem 3 - For the 71 days for which Kp > 6 geomagnetic conditions existed, there
were 18 days during which Dst < -200. Among these 18 days, Be > 10.0 for 3 days and
Bp > 10 for 11 days. There were 40 days for which Dst was between -100 and -199.
Of these days, Be > 10 for 6 days and Bp > 10 for 15 days. Are the electron and proton
belts more active during days when Dst has its largest negative values?

Answer: We can construct the table:

Dst Be > 10 Bp > 10 Total
<-200 nT 3 11 18
-100 nT to -199 nT 6 15 40
Total 9 26 58

For the Be index, there were 9 days total, of which 3/9 had extreme values for Dst so P
= 33%

For the Bp index ,there were 26 days total, of which 18/26 had extreme values for Dst
so P = 69%.

For geomagnetically-active days ( Kp > 6), the proton index seems to be about
twice as 'active' when Dst is indicating a large disturbance for which Dst < -200
nT.

Space Math [Link]

 Drawing an Aurora from a Narrative 38

An aurora is a spectacular, visual experience for every human that has watched it.
Although scientists want to study it to learn about its secrets, other observers prefer
to simply experience the phenomenon for its beauty and awesome mystery. Here is
a vivid description of an aurora observed on August 28, 1859 by Captain Stanard
from Cleveland, Ohio.

“At 9:00 PM, a belt began to rise up in the north, and as the convex edge
attained a height of about 40 degrees above the horizon, it began to shoot
out long, attenuated bright rays close together, moving slowly to the west
and reaching to the zenith. Near the convex edge they were of a bright
yellow, changing as they shot up to orange, and near the zenith to a bright
red, the middle and lower ends remaining yellow and orange. As the fiery
points of the rays shot into the broad belt overhead, which had still
remained like a belt of luminous fog, the whole thing was changed in an
instant into bright red color. The color deepening as it neared the eastern
horizon, to a bright crimson, and at the western end near the star Arcturus,
into a bright scarlet, gradually growing fainter in the zenith, and increasing
in brightness nearer the horizon. After 15 minutes it resolved itself into
converging rays that came from the zenith.”

“ At 9:45 PM, A double arch formed from two narrow ribbons of light 15
degrees wide running from Canes Venatici to the southern edge of Perseus.
The bright star Capella shining through the narrow black space between
them. Ten minutes later, bright rays suddenly shot up in quick successive
flashes from the lower through the upper arch, reaching nearly to the
zenith, and moving slowly to the west until they reached the constellation
Corona Borealis, lighting up the northwestern sky with yellow, orange and
red. There commenced a sudden flashing of horizontal wavy bands from the
upper arch towards the zenith.”

From the information in this description, try to recreate what Mr. Stanard saw for one
particular moment as he watched the aurora dance across the sky. Use colored
pencils, crayons, watercolors or other media to render a view of the aurora based on
this description.

Space Math [Link]

Use the following space for your rendering: 38

Space Math [Link]

 How Big is an Aurora? 39
The IMAGE satellite orbits
Earth, and has a camera that
can view the Northern and
Southern Lights from space. As
the solar activity level
increases and decreases, the
size of the aurora increases
and decreases.

This activity will let you use

data from this satellite to
measure the diameter of the
Auroral Oval and its changes
during a solar storm event.

The ring of Northern Lights from space.

Scientists use satellites to study phenomena that are too vast to be

studied from the ground.

Here's how to do it!

1. With a ruler, measure the diameter of the Earth's
 Photographs can be disk in millimeters in the illustration. (Answer:
used to measure the About 30 mm)
size of an object. 2. The diameter of the Earth in this image is 13,000
kilometers, so the scale of the image is (13000
km)/( 30 mm) = 433 kilometers/mm.
3. The diameter of the Oval is about 15 mm, so
using the image scale, the diameter of the Oval
Now you try! is:
15 x 433 = 6,500 kilometers

This photograph is from the

IMAGE 'Far-Ultraviolet Imager'
instrument obtained on July 14,
2000. It shows the size of the
auroral oval during a severe solar
storm.

1) Estimate the inside and outside

diameters of the auroral oval.

2) Calculate the oval's area in

millions of square kilometers.

Space Math [Link]

 39
Answer Key
The diameter of the partial Earth disk is about 60 millimeters. The scale of
the image is therefore 13,000/60 = 217 kilometers/mm

Space Math [Link]

 How High is an Aurora? 40
For thousands of years, people
living at northern latitudes had no idea
how high up the Aurora Borealis was
located. Before the advent of
photography in the 1880's, auroral
observers tried to determine the height of
aurora by the method of triangulation.
One of the earliest of these
measurements was made by the French
scientist Jean-Jacques d'Ortous de
Mairan between 1731 and 1751. From
two stations 20 km apart, observers
measured the angles A and B between
the ground and a specific spot on an
aurora. From the geometry of the
triangle, they estimated that aurora’s
height was between 650 - 1,000 km
above the ground. More precise
measurements yielded estimates from
70 to 200 kilometers.
Image courtesy Tim Tomljanovich, [Link]

Question 1 - Suppose that two observers were located 30 kilometers apart. Observer A
measured an angle of 53 degrees and Observer B measured an angle of 114 degrees. By
making a scaled drawing of this triangle, what was the height of the auroral feature they
were studying?

Question 2 - Use a protractor to measure the vertex angle, P. What happens to the
measurement of angle P if you decrease the ‘baseline’ distance between the observers to 5
kilometers?

Question 3 – What would the measurements of the two angles be if the aurora were
located over a spot half-way between the two observers?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 40

Question 1 - Suppose that two observers were located 30 kilometers apart. Observer A
measured an angle of 53 degrees and Observer B measured an angle of 114 degrees. By
making a scaled drawing of this triangle, what was the height of the auroral feature they were
studying?
Answer: Students should get an answer near 100 kilometers.

Question 2 - Use a protractor to measure the vertex angle, P. What happens to the
measurement of angle P if you decrease the ‘baseline’ distance between the observers to 5
kilometers?
Answer: The angle P should have a measure of 180 – 114 – 53 = 13 degrees. If the
baseline is decreased to 5 kilometers with Observer A moving towards Observer B and
Observer B remaining at the previous location, Observer B will measure an angle of 114
degrees, Observer A will measure 64 degrees, angle P will decrease to 180 – 114 – 64 = 2
degrees. This is a very small angle to accurately measure.

Question 3 – What would the measurements of the two angles be if the aurora were located
over a spot half-way between the two observers who are 30 kilometers apart?
Answer : From a scaled drawing A = B = 80 degrees.

Space Math [Link]

 Aurora Power! 41
Scientists use decimal numbers
a lot when measuring objects
or processes! This activity uses
data from the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) POES
satellite to compare the
Northern Lights displays in
terms of how many watts of
energy they produce.

Note: A kilowatt is one

thousand watts, but a gigawatt
is one billion watts! A kilowatt Auroras are very common to see in
of electricity can run a small northern regions of Canada and Alaska.
house, but a gigawatt can run They light up the skies in swirling color.
a small city.

Scientists make measurements that are usually expressed in

decimal form.

Applied decimal arithmetic: Here's how to do it!

addition, subtraction and How much more powerful was an aurora
division with 987.45 gigawatts, than an aurora
with 324.98 gigawatts?
987.45 gigawatts
- 324.98 gigawatts
Now you try! -----------------------------
662.47 gigawatts
Aurora Power
Date Power
4-11-01 528.1 This table lists some major storms
4-18-01 828.3 detected by the NOAA POES
11-24-01 497.7
satellite, and the total power that
2-18-00 17.6
8-27-01 96.5 they produced in gigawatts (Gw). Use
11-6-01 484.7 this table to answer the questions
5-23-02 387.3 below.
2-5-02 244.8
9-4-02 580.2

1) What was the difference in power between the strongest and weakest
aurora detected?
2) If 48 storms like the one on February 18, 2000 were combined, how
much different would they be than the power from the strongest
storm in the table?
3) What is the sum of the power for all nine storms?
4) How many times more powerful was the April 18, 2001 storm than the
storm detected on August 27, 2001?

Space Math [Link]

 41
Answer Key
Problem 1 - 828.3 - 17.6 = 810.7 gigawatts

Problem 2 - 48 x 17.6 = 844.8 gigawatts compared to one storm with 828.3

gigawatts

Problem 3 - 3,665.2 gigawatts or 3.6652 trillion watts

Problem 4 - 828.3/96.5 = 46.6 times greater

Space Math [Link]

 Aurora Power Comparison 42
Power is a physical quantity that tells us how rapidly work is being performed, and
energy expended to do the work. The common unit of power used by scientists is the watt. In
your home there are many electrical items that are measured by the number of watts of
electricity they consume in order to operate. The most energy-consuming items involve an
electrical motor, which will do work to move air in your air conditioner, or to keep food cold in
your refrigerator. When combined together, your home electrical consumption can be
thousands of watts per week. The table below shows some typical numbers for the watts
involved in operating various kinds of systems you are familiar with.

System Watts Energy source

Flash light 5 Battery
Reading lamp 100 Electric Utility Company
Television 90 Electric Utility Company
Computer 200 Electric Utility Company
Refrigerator 500 Electric Utility Company
Small House 1,000 Electric Utility Company
Small town 5 million Fossil Fuels
Big city 5 billion Fossil Fuels
United States 420 billion Fossil Fuels

Scientists can measure the power of an aurora by measuring how much light they
produce, and then using these measurements in mathematical formulas to calculate the
power needed to produce the light. The table below shows some measurements made
during the November 20, 2003 Great Aurora, which you may have been able to see if your
nighttime skies were clear! The table gives the time in Column 1 and 2 the estimated
power in units of BILLIONS of watts in the North and South Hemispheres

Time Power (South) Power (North)

13:57 403 141
14:47 149 149
15:27 339 305
16:26 432 531
17:07 279 657
17:18 251 446
18:08 500 315
18:46 428 1108
19:18 288 112
19:49 362 383
20:26 132 234
21:32 149 144

Question 1 - When did the peak power occur in the North and South
Hemispheres?

Question 2 – What was the average power produced by the aurora during
the tabulated time interval in each hemisphere?

Question 3: - What was the total power produced from the aurora in both
hemispheres?

Question 4: - For how many years could the United States operate with the
total power produced by this aurora?

Exploring Space Mathematics [Link]

Answer Key 42

Time Power (South) Power (North)

13:57 403 141
14:49 149 149
15:27 339 305
16:26 432 531
17:07 279 657
17:18 251 446
18:08 500 315
18:46 428 1108
19:18 288 112
19:49 362 383
20:26 132 234
21:32 149 144

Question 1 - When did the peak power occur in the North and South
Hemispheres?
Answer: In the Northern Hemisphere it occurred at 18:46 UT. In the
Southern Hemisphere it occurred at 18:08 UT.

Question 2 – What was the average power produced by the aurora during
the tabulated time interval in each hemisphere?
Answer: North = 337.1 billion watts. South = 309.3 billion watts.

Question 3: - What was the total power produced from the aurora in both
hemispheres?
Answer: South = 3712 billion watts, North = 4525 billion watts . Total =
8237 billion watts.

Question 4: - For how many years could the United States operate with the
total power produced by this aurora?
Answer: In one year, the table shows US electricity consumption is about
420 billion watts per year. The total aurora power in both hemispheres for
this particular storm was 8237 billion watts, so the US could be supported for
8237/420 = 19.6 years. The reason we don’t collect ‘aurora power’ is that it is
spread out over million of square miles and not concentrated as are other
forms of usable energy.

Exploring Space Mathematics [Link]

The North and South Magnetic Poles 43
The aurora form a glowing halo of light above Earth’s North and South Polar
Regions. Because aurora are caused by charged particles that are affected by
Earth’s magnetic field, the Auroral Ovals are centered in Earth’s magnetic
poles, not its geographic poles about which the planet rotates.

The photos below, were taken of the two polar aurora by the NASA, IMAGE
FUV (Left) and the Polar (right) instruments. The data has been colorized to
bring out details of interest to scientists.

Question 1 - The South Magnetic Pole is located in the Northern Hemisphere.

From the appropriate image above, locate this magnetic pole on a map.

Question 2 -- The North Magnetic Pole is located in the Southern Hemisphere.

From the appropriate image above, locate this magnetic pole on a map.

Question 3: -- From the geographic clues in the map, estimate the diameter of the
auroral oval in kilometers. (Hint: The radius of Earth is 6,378 kilometers)

Question 4: – What interesting geographic features would you find if you traveled
to each of the magnetic poles? If you were going to undertake an expedition to
each pole, describe your journey starting from your city or town and mention any
special or unusual gear you would bring.

Question 5: Using a compass, and the idea that likes repel and opposites attract,
why don’t the names of the magnetic poles match the hemispheres they are in?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 43

Question 1 - The South Magnetic Pole is located in the Northern Hemisphere. From the
appropriate image above, locate this magnetic pole on a map.
Answer: The right-hand image from the Polar satellite shows the Arctic Region and the
contours of Greenland and North America/Canada. From a world map, students can
estimate that the center of the auroral oval is near longitude 105 West and latitude 83
North)
Question 2 -- The North Magnetic Pole is located in the Southern Hemisphere. From the
appropriate image above, locate this magnetic pole on a map.
Answer: The left-hand image from the IMAGE satellite shows Antarctica. The center of
the auroral oval is near longitude 110 West and latitude 72 South.
Question 3: -- From the clues in the map, estimate the diameter of the auroral oval in
kilometers. (Hint: The radius of Earth is 6,378 kilometers)
Answer: The diameter of each coordinate grid covers Earth, so the diameter of the grid
is the diameter of Earth. Calculate the scale of each image (kilometers per millimeter)
and multiply by the diameter of each auroral oval in millimeters. For the north polar
aurora, its diameter is about 6400 kilometers. For the south polar aurora, the diameter is
about 6,000 kilometers.
Question 4: – What interesting geographic features would you find if you traveled to
each of the magnetic poles? If you were going to undertake an expedition to each pole,
describe your journey starting from your city or town and mention any special or unusual
gear you would bring.
Answer: Accept any reasonable answer related to icy climates (Antarctica – permanent
ice) or the north polar sea (ice or water location depending on season)
Question 5: Using a compass, and the idea that likes repel and opposites attract, why
don’t the names of the magnetic poles match the hemispheres they are in?
Answer: In the Northern Hemisphere, the ‘N’ on the compass is a north-type magnet by
the way we defined the naming convention for magnets, so it will be attracted to a south-
type pole, which is therefore the polarity of the pole in the Northern Hemisphere.

Space Math [Link]

 Magnetic Storms 44
Magnetic Storms are disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field that can be detected from
the ground using sensitive instruments called magnetometers. Dozens of these
instruments located at ‘Magnetic Observatories’ around the world keep track of these
disturbances. The graph below shows these changes during a 24-hour period on
October 24, 2003.

The vertical axis in the plot gives the magnitude, B, of this magnetic change on Earth
that is in the East to West direction. The strength of a magnet can be described in
terms of a unit called a Tesla. On this plot, the vertical axis gives the magnetic strength
in units of nano-Teslas (nT). One nano-Tesla is one billionth of a Tesla (so 1 billion
nano-Teslas = 1 Tesla) . We can see that on this day, Earth’s magnetic field varied
between 4700 and 6700 nano-Teslas.

The horizontal axis is the time measured in Universal Time (UT). When scientists study
events that change in time, they often use Universal Time, which is also known as
Greenwich Mean Time. All scientific measurements are referred to this standard of
time keeping to avoid problems converting from one time zone to another. Universal
Time or ‘UT’ follows a 24-hour clock, so that 6:00 PM is written as 18:00 and 1:00 PM
is written as 13:00. Use the time calculator at
[Link] to convert your local
time to Universal Time!

Universal Time (UT)

Question 1 – If a magnetometer measured a magnetic field of 137,000 nT, how

many Teslas would that correspond to?

Question 2 – What is the corresponding Universal Time for 9:45 PM?

Question 3 - From the above graph, at what time was the magnetic storm most
severe in terms of the absolute magnitude of its change in B?

Question 4 – At what time did the storm episode begin and end?

Question 5 – As a percentage of 5900 nT, what was the largest change in the
magnetic field?

Question 6 - How long did the magnetic storm last?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 44

Universal Time (UT)

Question 1 – If a magnetometer measured a magnetic field of 137,000 nT, how many

Teslas would that correspond to?
Answer : 137,000 nT x ( 1 Tesla / 1 billion nT) = 0.000137 Teslas.

Question 2 – What is the corresponding Universal Time for 9:45 PM?

Answer : 21:45 UT.

Question 3 - From the above graph, at what time was the magnetic storm most severe?
Answer: Students should look for the largest ‘absolute magnitude’ change in the graph
from the ‘average’ level of 5900 nT. That occurs at about 16:00 UT.

Question 4 – At what time did the storm episode begin and end?
Answer: The ‘calm’ periods occurred between 00:00 and 09:00 and from 23:00 to 24:00.
The storm period occurred between 09:00 and 21:00 UT

Question 5 – As a percentage of 5900 nT, what was the largest change in the magnetic
field?
Answer: The largest change in terms of absolute magnitude occurred at 16:00 when the
magnetic field went from 5900 nT to 4700 nT. This is a decrease of 1200 nT. As a
percentage this was (1200/5900) x 100% = 20% from the non-storm conditions.

Question 6 - How long did the magnetic storm last?

Answer: The entire storm lasted 21:00 – 09:00 = 12 hours.

Space Math [Link]

 Magnetic Storms and the Kp Index 45

Magnetic observatories generate a huge amount of data – far too much

for anyone to digest easily. To help scientists take a quick measure of
Earth’s magnetic storminess, they invented the ‘Planetary Variability’
index. The magnitude of the disturbance in Earth’s magnetic field is
measured at 13 observatories and then averaged together. This average
value is then reported every three hours as the Kp Index.

The bar graph above shows the changes in this index during the time of a
major magnetic storm on November 20, 2003. Prior to the storm, Earth’s
magnetic field was in a typically disturbed state with variations between
Kp 2 to 4. But after a solar disturbance collided with the magnetic field, the
variations jumped to Kp 7 and higher within a few hours. This particular
storm caused spectacular Northern Lights seen all across North America
and Northern Europe.

Question 1 – If each bar is 3-hours wide, how long did the storm last above
a level of Kp = 4?

Question 2 – At what time did the storm reach its maximum Kp value?

Question 3 - If New York City is 4 hours behind Universal Time, what time
was it in New York during the height of the storm?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 45

Question 1 – If each bar is 3-hours wide, how long did the storm last?
Answer: The red portion of the bar graph which covers the most intense
phase of the storm extends 9 bars or 9 x 3h = 27 hours!

Question 2 – At what time did the storm reach its maximum Kp value?
Answer: This occurred at the bar which spans the times 19:00 to 21:00 UT
so you can take the start time as 19:00 UT, or the end time 21:00 UT or the
mid-point time of the bar of 20:30 UT.

Question 3 - If New York City is 4 hours behind Universal Time, what time
was it in New York during the height of the storm?
Answer: Taking the mid-time of 20:30 UT, the Eastern Standard Time in
New York would be 20:30 – 4:00 = 16:30 EST or 4:30 PM.

Space Math [Link]

Measuring the Interplanetary Magnetic Field with ACE 46
The Advanced Composition
Summary of Storm Days Explorer (ACE) spacecraft is located 1.5
Kp Bz>+20 Bz<-20 Days million kilometers from Earth in the
9 2 6 8 direction of the sun at Lagrange Point 1.
From this location, its SWEPAM sensor
8 5 6 19 can directly measure the magnetic field of
7 4 4 58 the solar wind and coronal mass ejections
<6 13 2 861 (CMEs) as they pass by the spacecraft.
Total 24 18 946 It has been known for some time
that the 'Z-component' of the magnetic
This table gives the number of field, called Bz, is a strong predictor of how
days for which the two storm indicators, violently Earth's magnetic field will be
Kp and Bz satisfied the stated limits. upset by the passing plasma clouds from
Kp is determined by measuring the sun. The general level of geomagnetic
disturbances in the ground-level disturbance is measured on a 9-point scale
geomagnetic field on a 3-hour average
called Kp. Very strong storms have a Kp=9
during the day.
Bz is the strength and direction while modest disturbances register Kp=1
of the solar wind magnetic field or 2 on this scale. The most dramatic
measured by the ACE spacecraft. Aurora occur during prolonged periods with
Kp = 8 or 9.

During the entire sunspot cycle from 1996-2008, ACE measured a number
of magnetic disturbances that could be correlated against the Kp index. The
results are summarized in the above table in terms of the number of days that the
stated conditions were satisfied during the entire sunspot cycle. For example, out
of a total of 861 days for which Bz > 6.0 nT or Bz < -6.0 nT, there were 58 days
during which Kp=7. Solar physicists refer to negative Bz values as indicating that
the direction of the magnetic field (polarity) is south-directed relative to the
orientation of Earth's geographic pole, and positive Bz indicating a northward
orientation.

Problem 1 - Suppose we are trying to predict the severity of a geomagnetic storm

using Bz as an indicator. For a given value of Kp, which Bz orientation is the most
reliable predictor?

Problem 2 - Suppose we consider two geomagnetic conditions, 'stormy' with

Kp=7,8 or 9, and 'Calm' with Kp<6. A) What is the probability that Bz > +20 nT
will indicate stormy conditions? B) What is the probability that Bz < -20 nT will
indicate stormy conditions?

Problem 3 - The ACE satellite measures Bz = -60 nT. What is the probability that
a geomagnetic storm with Kp > 8 will occur?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 46
Kp Bz>+20 Bz<-20 Days
9 2 6 8
8 5 6 19
7 4 4 58
<6 13 2 861
Total 24 18 946

Problem 1 - Suppose we are trying to predict the severity of a geomagnetic storm

using Bz as an indicator. For a given value of Kp, which Bz orientation is the most
reliable predictor?

Answer: Kp = 9: Bz > +20 nT P = 2/8 Bz < -20 nT P = 6/8

Kp = 8: Bz > +20 nT P = 5/19 Bz < -20 nT P = 6/19
Kp = 7: Bz > +20 nT P = 4/58 Bz < -20 nT P = 4/58
So for Kp=9 the south-directed orientation has the highest reliability with a
probability of 6/8 = 75%. For weaker storms ( Kp=7 or 8) the reliability is 50%.

Problem 2 - Suppose we consider two geomagnetic conditions, 'stormy' with Kp=7,8

or 9, and 'Calm' with Kp<6. A) What is the probability that Bz > +20 nT will indicate
stormy conditions? B) What is the probability that Bz < -20 nT will indicate stormy
conditions?

Answer: A) Adding the numbers in the Bz>+20 nT column, there are 2+5+4 = 11 days
with Stormy conditions and 13 days with Calm conditions. The probability that a strong
'north directed' field indicates Stormy conditions is just P=11/24 and for Calm
conditions it is P=13/24.

B) Adding the numbers in the Bz < -20 nT column, there are 6+6+4 = 16 days with
Stormy conditions and 2 days with Calm conditions. The probability that a strong 'south
directed' field indicates Stormy conditions is just P=16/18 and for Calm conditions it is
P=2/18, so the south-directed Bz is most reliable for indicating the chance of Stormy
geomagnetic conditions. It is 8-times more effective than using the north-directed Bz.

Problem 3 - The ACE satellite measures Bz = -60 nT. What is the probability that a
geomagnetic storm with Kp > 8 will occur?

Answer: From the table, column 3, the number of days is 6+6 = 12 out of a total of 18
days for which Bz < -20 nT were recorded, so the probability is P = 12/18 or P=67%.

Space Math [Link]

 Geomagnetic Storms and Ground Currents 47

Disturbances in the magnetic field of Earth can induce currents to flow in the
ionosphere. These currents, in turn, can magnetically induce currents to flow in the
ground. The flow of ground currents into transformers in our electric power grid can
even cause blackouts and other problems. The 'Halloween Storm' between October
28-30, 2003 created ground currents that damaged transformers in the electrical
power grid of South Africa. Electrical power blackouts from this storm also affected
50,000 people in southern Sweden.
The figure above shows the strength of the current flowing into a transformer
in Port Elizabeth, South Africa on October 29, 2003 at the indicated times given in
Universal Time (UT) (Courtesy E.H. Bernardi, University of Cape Town, SA)

Problem 1 - What is the maximum current change, in amperes, between the

smallest and the largest values of the major storm event near 07:00 UT?

Problem 2 - About how many minutes did it take for the event near 07:00 UT to
change from its smallest to its largest current value?

Problem 3 - The amount of heat energy, in joules, that is generated by this current
change can be estimated from the product of the transformer voltage, V, in volts, the
current change, I, in amperes, and the duration of the change, T in seconds, so that
E = V x I x T. If the transformer operates at V = 500,000 Volts, from your estimates
for I and T, how many joules of heat did this transformer absorb during the GIC
event?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 47
Problem 1 - What is the maximum current change, in amperes, between the smallest
and the largest values of the major storm event near 07:00 UT?

Answer: The current change was about -28 amperes to +18 amperes for a total
change of + 18 - (-28) = 46 amperes. Students estimates may vary.

Problem 2 - About how many minutes did it take for the event near 07:00 UT to
change from its smallest to its largest current value?

Answer: Depending on how well students can measure the change with a ruler,
estimates of about 20 minutes are acceptable.

Problem 3 - The amount of heat energy, in joules, that is generated by this current
change can be estimated from the product of the transformer voltage, V, the current
change, I, and the duration of the change, T so that E = V x I x T. If the transformer
operates at V = 500,000 Volts, from your estimates for I and T, how many joules of
heat did this transformer absorb during the GIC event?

Answer: E = 500,000 x 48 x (20 minutes x 60 sec/1 min)

So E = 480 million Joules.

Note: This is enough energy to cause heat damage to a transformer if it is not properly
cooled to anticipate such storm events. The image below shows damage to a
transformer in Port Elizabeth South Africa in which some of the plates were partially
melted.

Space Math [Link]

The 'dB/dt' Index and Ground Current Intensity 48
Time B
(Minutes) (nT) The speed with which the
0 30 ground-level geomagnetic field
1 100 changes is what determines how
2 -200 strong the resulting ground currents
3 -250 will be. It is determined by measuring
4 300 the change in the magnetic field
5 -20 strength, dB, given in nanoTeslas (nT)
6 210 and dividing this by the time interval,
7 -75 dT, of the change in minutes.
8 450
9 -400 During the Quebec Blackout of
10 550 1989, dB/dt values of 500 nT/minute
11 120 were recorded. During the 1921
12 -50 geomagnetic storm, dB/dt values as
13 -350 high as 4000 nT/minute were reached
14 700
in some geographic regions.
15 -400
16 100
The table to the left shows the
17 0
18 -250
ground-level magnetic field change
19 150
during a hypothetical severe magnetic
20 0 storm.
21 225
22 -500
23 800
24 -150

Problem 1 - Plot the magnetic data as a line graph.

Problem 2 - For each 1-minute interval in time, calculate the magnitude of dB/dt,
in units of nT/minute.

Problem 3 - Between what times were the highest dB/dt values reached, and what
were these values?

Problem 4 - If the strongest geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs) affecting

power grid transformers occurs for the highest values of dB/dt, during which times
would a power plant operator be most concerned for the safety of her power grid
transformers?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 48

1000

800

600
Dst (nT)

400

200

-200

-400

-600
0 5 10 15 20

Time(Minutes)

Problem 1 - Plot the magnetic data as a line graph. Answer: See above.

Problem 2 - For each 1-minute interval in time, calculate the magnitude of dB/dt, in
units of nT/minute. Answer: See table below.
B dB/dt B dB/dt
Minutes (nT) (nT/min) Minutes (nT) (nT/min)
0 30 13 -350 300
1 100 70 14 700 1050
2 -200 300 15 -400 1100
3 -250 50 16 100 500
4 300 550 17 0 100
5 -20 320 18 -250 250
6 210 230 19 150 400
7 -75 285 20 0 150
8 450 525 21 225 225
9 -400 850 22 -500 725
10 550 950 23 800 1300
11 120 430 24 -150 950
12 -50 170

Problem 3 - Between what times were the highest dB/dt values reached, and what
were these values? Answer: Between 13-15 minutes, and between 22 and 23
minutes.

Problem 4 - If the strongest geomagnetically-induced currents affecting power grid

transformers occurs for the highest values of dB/dt, during which times would a power
plant operator be most concerned for the safety of her power grid transformers?
Answer: From the historical data for the Quebec Blackout which happened when dB/dt
> 500 nT/min, based on this tabulated data, the times between 4 minutes and 24
minutes are the most hazardous.

Space Math [Link]

THEMIS: A Magnetic Case of 'What came first?' 49
The NASA, THEMIS satellite constellation consists of
five satellites, P1, P2, P3, P4 and P5, launched on February
17, 2007. The scientific goal was to determine the sequence
of events connecting disturbances in Earth's distant magnetic
field (a process called magnetic reconnection), with the start
of magnetic storms and aurora near Earth.

The science team assembled the data shown in the

graphs to the left. The event that triggered this sequence was
a 'magnetic reconnection' in Earth's magnetic field that took
place at about 4:50:03 at a location about 160,000 km from
Earth. (Note these plots have been greatly simplified for
clarity! See the original article in the journal Science, August
15, 2008, vol. 321, pp.931: Figure 2 and 3)

Problem 1 - At about what times do each of the plots begin

to show a significant change in the quantity being measured?

Problem 2 - What is the timeline for the start of each plotted

event?

Problem 3 - How long was the elapsed time between the

increase in particle velocity at the P3 satellite, and the
enhancement of the auroral electrojet?

Problem 4 - The P3 satellite was located 74,000 km from

Earth. If the auroral electrojet is a stream of charged particles
that flows in Earth's upper atmosphere of Earth, what was the
speed of the event in km/sec between the P3 location and
when the electrojet started to form?

Problem 5 - What was the time difference between the

magnetic reconnection event at 04:50:03 and the start of the
auroral change in latitude?

Problem 6 - How fast did the particles travel from the

reconnection region to the Earth when the auroral 'substorm'
began?

Problem 7 - Before the THEMIS observations, one theory

said that the disturbances near the P3 satellite would come
before the reconnection occurred. What does the data say
about this theory?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 49
Problem 1 - Answer: The times below were reported in the scientific journals based on the
actual data. Student answers may vary slightly depending on their ability to interpolate the
values on the horizontal axis. For best results, use a millimeter ruler to determine the scale
of the axis in seconds/mm.
Plot 1: Particle velocity increase detected at P3: 4:52:27
Plot 2: Magnetic field change at P3: 4:52:27
Plot 3: Auroral electrojet amplification in the ionosphere: 4:54:00
Plot 4: Substorm expansion; Latitude increase northwards: 4:52:21
Plot 5: Auroral intensity change; arrival of particles at Earth that were generated by magnetic
reconnection. 4:51:39

Problem 2 - Answer:
4:51:39: Auroral intensity change; arrival of particles at Earth generated by the magnetic
reconnection.
4:52:21: Substorm expansion: Latitude increase northwards
4:52:27: Particle velocity increase detected at P3 due to earthward flow of particles.
4:52:27: Magnetic field change at P3
4:54:00: Auroral electrojet amplification in the ionosphere.

Problem 3 - Answer: 4:54:00 - 4:52:27 = 1minute and 33 seconds = 93 seconds.

Problem 4 - Answer: 74,000 km / 93 seconds = 796 km/sec.

Problem 5 - Answer: 4:52:21 - 4:50:03 = 2m 18s = 138 seconds.

Problem 6 -Answer: The distance traveled was 160,000 kilometers in 138 seconds, for an
average speed of 160,000 km /138s = 1,160 km/sec if no allowance is made for the radius
of the earth (6378km) and the height of the ionosphere (300 km). If these allowances are
made, then (160,000 - 6378 - 300) km /138s = 1,110 km/sec.

Problem 7 - Answer: Because the reconnection event happened at 04:50:03 ,this was
about 2:27 before the disturbances at P3 in the particles speeds were recorded, so the
theory in which P3 happened first is not consistent with the new data.

Space Math [Link]

 Radiation Unit Conversions 50
To understand the effect that radiation
has on biological systems, a number of
different systems for measurement have
arisen over the last 50 years. European
scientists prefer to use Grays and
Seiverts while American scientists still
use Rads and Rems!

The chart to the left shows your typical

radiation dosage on the ground and the
factors that contribute to it.

Basic Unit Conversions:

1 Curie = 37 billion disintegrations/sec

1 Gray = 100 Rads 0.001 = 1 milli

1 Rad = 0.01 Joules/kg 0.000001 = 1 micro

1 Seivert = 100 Rems 1 lifetime = 70 years

1 Roentgen = 0.000258 Charges/kg 1 year = 8760 hours

1 microCoulomb/kg = 46 milliRem 1 Coulomb = 6.24 billion billion charges

Convert:

1 . 360 milliRem per year to ………………………….microSeiverts per hour

2. 7.8 milliRem per day to ………………………….Rem per year

3. 1 Rad per day to ……………………………………Grays per year

4. 360 milliRem per year to ……………………………Rems per lifetime

5. 3.0 Roentgens to ………………………………… charges per gram

6. 5.6 Seiverts per year to …………………………….milliRem per day

7. 537.0 milliGrays per year to ………………..……...milliRads per hour

Space Math [Link]

 Unit Conversion Exercises 50

Answer Key

1 . 360 milliRem per year to ………………………….…0.41 microSeiverts per hour

360 milliRem/yr x 1Rem/1000 milliRem x 1 year/8760 hours = 0.000041 Rem/hour
0.000041 Rem/hour x 1.0 Seiverts/100 Rem = 0.00000041 Seiverts/hour
0.00000041 Seiverts/hour x 1 microSeivert/0.000001Seivert = 0.41 microSeiverts/hour

2. 7.8 milliRem per day to ………………………..……2.8 Rem per year

7.8 milliRem/day x 365 days/year = 2847.0 milliRem/year
2847.0 milliRem/year x 1.0 Rem/1000milliRem = 2.8 Rem/year

3. 1 Rad per day to ……………………………………..…3.65 Grays per year

1 Rad/day x 365 days/year x 1 Gray/100 Rads = 3.65 Grays/year

4. 360 milliRem per year to ………………………………25.2 Rems per lifetime

360 milliRem/year x 70 years/lifetime x 1 Rem/1000 milliRem = 25.2 Rems/lifetime

5. 3.0 Roentgens to ………………………..…0.000000774 charges per gram

3.0 Roentgens x 0.000258 charges/kg per Roentgen = 0.000774 charges/kg
0.000774 charges/kilogram x 1.0 kg/1000 gram = 0.000000774 charges/gram

6. 5.6 Seiverts per year to ………………………………1530 milliRem per day

5.6 Seiverts/year x 1.0 Year/365 days x 100 Rem/1.0 Seivert = 1.53 Rem/day
1.53 Rem/day x 1000 milliRem/Rem = 1530 milliRem/day

7. 537.0 milliGrays per year to ………………………….6.13 milliRads per hour

537.0 milliGrays/year x 1.0 years/8760 hours x 100 Rads/1.0 Gray = 6.13 milliRads/hour

Note: There are many different conversion 'chains' that the students can offer. The
challenge is to set up each ratio correctly with the right number in the numerator and
denominator!

Space Math [Link]

 A Study of Astronaut Radiation Dosages 51

250

Dosage (milliRad/day)
200

150

100

50

0
150 200 250 300 350

Nautical Miles

The typical radiation dosage on the ground is about 1.0 milliRad/day or 365
milliRad/year. This dosage is considered safe, and it is an unavoidable part of the
natural background that we live and work within. In space, however, this normal
background dosage is significantly exceeded. The graph above shows the average
radiation dosages encountered by Space Shuttle astronauts during six Space
Shuttle missions (from left to right: STS-42, 51, 51B, 37, 33 and 31).

Problem 1 - What was the daily radiation exposure experienced during the STS-31
mission?

Problem 2 - The International Space Station orbits Earth at an altitude of about

200 Nautical Miles. For a typical astronaut stay of 90 days, what will be the
astronaut's average dose on the ISS?

Problem 3 - If the ISS astronaut remained on the ground during this 90-day
mission, how much of a dosage would he have acquired?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 51

Problem 1 - What was the daily radiation exposure experienced during the STS-31
mission?

Answer: From the graph, the dosage is 200 milliRads/day.

Problem 2 - The International Space Station orbits Earth at an altitude of about

200 Nautical Miles. For a typical astronaut stay of 90 days, what will be the
astronaut's average dose on the ISS?

Answer: At an altitude of 200 NM, the daily dosage is about 40 milliRads/day.

During the 90-day mission, the astronaut absorbs about 40 milliRads/day x 90 days
= 3,600 milliRads or 3.6 Rads of radiation.

Problem 3 - If the ISS astronaut remained on the ground during this 90-day
mission, how much of a dosage would he have acquired?

Answer: The introductory paragraph says that on the ground the dosage is 365
milliRad/year, so for 90 days the total radiation exposure is
365 milliRads x (90/365) = 90 milliRads.

Note: The radiation exposure by the astronaut is the equivalent of 3600/365 = 9.8
years of ground-level exposure during a period of 90 days.

Space Math [Link]

 Having a Hot Time on Mars!
52
Mars has virtually no
atmosphere leaving its surface
unprotected from solar and cosmic
radiation.
This figure, created with the
NASA, MARIE instrument on the
Odyssey spacecraft orbiting Mars,
shows the unshielded surface
radiation dosages:

Color Rem/yr
Brown 20
Orange 18
Yellow 16
Light blue 13
Dark blue 10

Astronauts landing on Mars will want to minimize their total radiation

exposure during the 540 days they will stay on the surface. Assume that the Mars
astronauts used improved post-Apollo spacesuit technology providing a shielding
reduction of 1/8, and that the Mars Habitat provided a 1/20 radiation reduction.

Problem 1 - The typical, unshielded radiation dose on the surface of Earth for
cosmic rays is about 0.040 Rems/yr. By what factor is the unshielded, minimum
radiation exposure for Mars astronauts in excess of the normal terrestrial rates?

Problem 2 - The Mars explorers would like to spend 2 hours in spacesuits and
the remaining 24-hours inside the Mars Habitat during each of the 540-days of
exploration on Mars. What would be the approximate total dose for the astronauts
in the 'dark blue' polar regions at the end of A) a single day? B) 1 Earth-year? C)
the entire Mars visit?

Problem 3 - The total background+lifestyle dose on Earth at ground-level is about

360 milliRem/yr. How many extra years of radiation exposure will an astronaut
accumulate exploring the surface of Mars rather than 'staying home'?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer key 52

Problem 1 - The typical, unshielded radiation dose on the surface of Earth for cosmic rays
is about 0.040 Rems/yr. By what factor is the unshielded, minimum radiation exposure for
Mars astronauts in excess of the normal terrestrial rates?

Answer: The lowest mapped rates are about 10 Rem/yr, so this is about 10 Rem/0.040
Rem = 250-times higher than terrestrial ground rates.

Problem 2 - The Mars explorers would like to spend 2 hours in spacesuits and the
remaining 24-hours inside the Mars Habitat during each of the 540-days of exploration on
Mars. What would be the approximate total dose for the astronauts in the 'dark blue' polar
regions at the end of A) a single day? B) 1 Earth-year? C) the entire Mars visit?

Answer: The dark blue region corresponds to 10 Rem/yr or 27 milliRem/day, assuming 1

Earth-year = 365 days. In terms of an hourly rate we have for 1 day = 24 hours that the
dose rate is 1.1 milliRem/hr.

A) For the Mars Habitat, its shielding reduces the daily dose by 1/20 so for 22 hours the
dose will be 1.1 milliRem/hr x (1/20) x 22 hrs = 1.21 milliRem. The spacesuit dose would
be 1.1 milliRem/hr x (1/8) x 2 hrs = 0.28 milliRem ,so the total daily accumulated dose
would be 1.21 + 0.28 = 1.49 milliRem/day.

B) For one Earth-year the accumulated dose would be 1.49 milliRem/day x 365 days = 543
milliRem/yr or 0.54 Rem/yr.

C) For 540-days, the total dose would be 1.49 milliRem/day x 540 days = 805 milliRem or
0.80 Rem.

Problem 3 - The total background+lifestyle dose on Earth at ground-level is about 360

milliRem/yr. How many extra years of radiation exposure will an astronaut accumulate
exploring the surface of Mars rather than 'staying home'?

Answer: If he spent 540-days on Earth, he would have accumulated 360 milliRem/yr x 540
days/365 days= 532 milliRem. On Mars the total accumulation would have been 805
milliRem for 540 days. The excess accumulation is just 805 milliRem - 532 milliRem = 273
milliRem. This equals 273/360 = 0.76 additional years.

Space Math [Link]

 The Deadly Van Allen Belts? 53
In 1958, Dr. James Van Allen discovered a collection of
high-energy particle clouds within 40,000 km of Earth.
Arranged like two nested donuts, the inner belt is
mainly energetic protons, while the outer belts contain
both protons and electrons. These belts have long
been known as 'bad news' for satellites and astronauts,
with potentially deadly consequences if you spend too
much time within them. The figure below, produced by
scientists from the NASA, CRRES satellite, shows the
radiation dosages at various locations within the belts.
Blue = 0.0001 Rads/sec Green= 0.001 Rads/sec Yellow= 0.005
Rads/sec Orange= 0.01 Rads/sec and Red= 0.05 Rads/sec.

The numbers along the horizontal axis

give the distance from Earth in multiples of
the Earth radius (1 Re=6378 km). The
Inner van Allen Belt is located at about 1.6
Re. The Outer van Allen Belt is located at
about 4.0 Re. At a distance of 2.2 Re,
there is a 'gap' region in between these
belts. Satellites such as the Global
Positioning System (GPS) orbit in this gap
region where radiation effects are
minimum.

The International Space Station and Space

Shuttle, on this scale, orbit very near the
edge of the blue 'Earth disk' in the figure,
so are well below the Van Allen Belts.

Apollo astronauts, and astronauts in the upcoming visits to the Moon, will have to travel through some of
these belt regions because the orbit of the Moon lies along the fastest line-of-travel from Earth. On the
scale of the above figure, the distance to the Moon is 60 Re.

1. The speed of the spacecraft will be about 25,000 km/hour. If the spacecraft travels along the
indicated path (black bar), how long, in minutes, will it spend in the Blue, Green, Yellow, Orange and
Red regions?

2. Given the indicated radiation dosages in Rads/sec for each zone, what will be the dosages that the
astronauts receive in each zone?

3. What will be the total radiation dosage in Rads for the transit through the belts?

4. Some people believe that the Apollo moon landings were a hoax because astronauts would have
been instantly killed in the radiation belts. According to the US Occupation Safety and Health Agency
(OSHA) a lethal radiation dosage is 300 Rads in one hour. What is your answer to the 'moon landing
hoax' believers?

Note: According to radiation dosimeters carried by Apollo astronauts, their total dosage for the entire trip to the moon and return
was not more than 2 Rads over 6 days.

Space Math [Link]

 53
Answer Key:

Apollo astronauts, and astronauts in the upcoming visits to the Moon, will have to travel through
some of these belt regions because the orbit of the Moon lies along the fastest line-of-travel from Earth.
On the scale of the above figure, the distance to the Moon is 60 Re.

1. The speed of the spacecraft will be about 25,000 km/hour. If the spacecraft travels along the
indicated path, how long, in minutes, will it spend in the Blue, Green, Yellow, Orange and Red regions?
Note: transit estimates may vary depending on how accurately students measure figure.

Blue: 1.8 Re x (6378 km/Re) x (1 hour/25,000 km) x (60 minutes/1 hour) = 27.6 minutes
Yellow: (1.4 x 6378) /25,000 x 60 = 6.1 minutes
Orange: (1.0 x 6378) / 25,000 x 60 = 15.3 minutes
Green: (0.25 x 6378)/25,000 x 60 = 3.8 minutes
Red: 0 minutes
Total transit time……………………… 52.8 minutes

2. Given the indicated radiation dosages in Rads/sec for each zone, what will be the dosages that the
astronauts receive in each zone?

Blue: = 27.6 minutes x ( 60 sec/ 1 minute) x (0.0001 Rads/sec) = 0.17 Rads

Yellow = 6.1 minutes x 60 sec/minute x 0.005 rads/sec = 1.83 Rads
Orange = 15.3 minutes x (60 sec/minute) x 0.01 rads/sec = 9.18 Rads
Green = 3.8 minutes x (60 sec/minute) x 0.001 rads/sec = 0.23 Rads

3. What will be the total radiation dosage in Rads for the transit through the belts?
0.17 + 1.83 + 9.18 + 0.23 = 11.4 Rads

4. Some people believe that the Apollo moon landings were a hoax because astronauts would have
been instantly killed in the radiation belts. According to the US Occupation Safety and Health Agency
(OSHA) a lethal radiation dosage is 300 Rads in one hour. What is your answer to the 'moon landing
hoax' believers?

Note: According to radiation dosimeters carried by Apollo astronauts, their total dosage for the entire trip to the moon and return
was not more than 2 Rads over 6 days.

The total dosage for the trip is only 11.4 Rads in 52.8 minutes. Because 52.8 minutes is equal to 0.88
hours, his is equal to a dosage of 11.4 Rads / 0.88 hours = 13 Rads in one hour, which is well below
the 300 Rads in one hour that is considered to be lethal.

Also, this radiation exposure would be for an astronaut outside the spacecraft during the transit through
the belts. The radiation shielding inside the spacecraft cuts down the 13 Rads/hour exposure so that it is
completely harmless.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Proton Events and Astronaut Health 54
Date SPE Date SPE Date SPE
(pFU) (pFU) (pFU)
1 11/4/1997 72 32 4/15/2001 951 63 7/22/2002 28
2 11/6/1997 490 33 4/18/2001 321 64 8/14/2002 26
3 4/20/1998 1,700 34 4/28/2001 57 65 8/22/2002 36
4 5/2/1998 150 35 5/7/2001 30 66 8/24/2002 317
5 5/6/1998 210 36 6/15/2001 26 67 9/7/2002 208
6 8/24/1998 670 37 8/10/2001 17 68 11/9/2002 404
7 9/25/1998 44 38 8/16/2001 493 69 5/28/2003 121
8 9/30/1998 1,200 39 9/15/2001 11 70 5/31/2003 27
9 11/8/1998 11 40 9/24/2001 12,900 71 6/18/2003 24
10 1/23/1999 14 41 10/1/2001 2,360 72 10/26/2003 466
11 4/24/1999 32 42 10/19/2001 11 73 10/28/2003 29,500
12 5/5/1999 14 43 10/22/2001 24 74 11/2/2003 1,570
13 6/2/1999 48 44 11/4/2001 31,700 75 11/4/2003 353
14 6/4/1999 64 45 11/19/2001 34 76 11/21/2003 13
15 2/18/2000 13 46 11/22/2001 18,900 77 12/2/2003 86
16 4/4/2000 55 47 12/26/2001 779 78 4/11/2004 35
17 6/7/2000 84 48 12/29/2001 76 79 7/25/2004 2,086
18 6/10/2000 46 49 12/30/2001 108 80 9/13/2004 273
19 7/14/2000 24,000 50 1/10/2002 91 81 11/1/2004 63
20 7/22/2000 17 51 1/15/2002 15 82 11/7/2004 495
21 7/28/2000 18 52 2/20/2002 13 83 1/16/2005 5,040
22 8/11/2000 17 53 3/17/2002 13 84 5/14/2005 3,140
23 9/12/2000 320 54 3/18/2002 53 85 6/16/2005 44
24 10/16/2000 15 55 3/20/2002 19 86 7/14/2005 134
25 10/26/2000 15 56 3/22/2002 16 87 7/27/2005 41
26 11/8/2000 14,800 57 4/17/2002 24 88 8/22/2005 330
27 11/24/2000 942 58 4/21/2002 2,520 89 9/8/2005 1,880
28 1/28/2001 49 59 5/22/2002 820 90 12/6/2006 1,980
29 3/29/2001 35 60 7/7/2002 22 91 12/13/2006 698
30 4/2/2001 1,110 61 7/16/2002 234
31 4/10/2001 355 62 7/19/2002 31

The high-energy particles in SPEs are a hazard to astronauts because this

radiation can penetrate the shielding provided by spacesuits and spacecraft.
Radiation dosage in given in terms of milliREMs. Typically on the surface of Earth
we are exposed to about 370 milliREM of natural radiation each year. The table
above gives the intensity of each SPE detected between 1996-2008. To convert the
particle flux uints (pFUs) into milliREMS we use the following approximate
conversion constants: Spacesuits: 10,000 pFU = 100 milliREM; Spacecraft:
10,000 pFU = 10 milliREM

Problem 1 - What was the human radiation exposure in a spacesuit to the 5 most
intense SPEs during the tabulated period?

Problem 2 - What was the human radiation exposure inside a spacecraft to the 5
most intense SPEs during the tabulated period?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 54

To convert the pFUs into milliREMS we use the following approximate

conversion constants: Spacesuits: 10,000 pFU = 100 milliREM; Spacecraft: 10,000
pFU = 10 milliREM

Problem 1 - What was the human radiation exposure in a spacesuit to the 5 most
intense SPEs during the tabulated period?
Answer: The SPEs were 31,700 (11/4/2001); 29,500 (10/28/2003); 24,000
(7/14/2000); 18,900 (11/22/2001) and 14,800 (11/8/2000). The dosages were
31,700 pFU x 100 milliRem/10,000 = 317 milliRem
29,500 pFU x 100 milliRem/10,000 = 295 milliRem
24,000pFU x 100 milliRem/10,000 = 240 milliRem
18,900 pFU x 100 milliRem/10,000 = 189 milliRem
14,800 pFU x 100 milliRem/10,000 = 148 milliRem

Problem 2 - What was the human radiation exposure inside a spacecraft to the 5 most
intense SPEs during the tabulated period?
Answer:
31,700 pFU x 10 milliRem/10,000 = 32 milliRem
29,500 pFU x 10 milliRem/10,000 = 30 milliRem
24,000pFU x 10 milliRem/10,000 = 24 milliRem
18,900 pFU x 10 milliRem/10,000 = 19 milliRem
14,800 pFU x 10 milliRem/10,000 = 15 milliRem

Note: At ground level, a one-year radiation dose is about 350 milliRem from natural
sources, so a spacesuited astronaut exposed to a strong SPE receives about a years
worth of radiation exposure in a matter of a few hours.

Space Math [Link]

 Radiation Dosage and Space Exploration 55
Total Medical Impact The radiation dosages
Dose encountered by astronauts in space in
(Rem) properly shielded spacecraft rarely
5000 Predicted radiation from a
Carrington Superstorm in a exceed the 'nuisance' level. There are
spacesuit ( 1 gm/cm2 shielding) in no known examples of deaths directly
deep space
100% lethal dose for humans in 30
attributable to excess radiation
500 days. exposure among the over 300
400 Predicted radiation from the August
1972 flare in a spacesuit.
astronauts that have worked in space
200 Predicted radiation from a for prolonged periods of time.
Carrington Superstorm with 10
gm/cm2 shielding in deep space
Nevertheless, there are believed to be
100 About 5 out of every 100 people will risks associated with even moderate
experience a fatal cancer at this radiation exposure. Radiation is
level if delivered over a short time
(minutes to hours) measured in two ways:
50 Radiation absorbed by spacesuited Total absorbed dose (Rems)
astronauts from January 15, 2005
solar flare Dosage rate (milliRems/hour)
40 Predicted one-year cosmic ray
dosage in interplanetary space
during sunspot minimum with A solar flare delivers a lot of
shielding radiation in a small amount of time,
30 Estimated dosage from February
1956 solar proton event with 20 while cosmic rays deliver small
gm/cm2 shielding amounts of radiation for a long period
29 Predicted radiation from a
Carrington Superstorm with 20 of time. Although the dosage rates are
gm/cm2 shielding at ISS altitudes very different, their total absorbed dose
(400km)
A typical lifetime accumulated can be similiar over a lifetime. The
25 radiation dosage for person living on table to the left gives the various levels
the surface of Earth.
Maximum measured, unshielded
of radiation total dosage from a variety
20 radiation dosage per year on the of sources.
surface of Mars
15 Estimated dosage from August 1972
solar proton event with 20 gm/cm2 Suppose that a round trip to Mars took
shielding
Predicted one-year cosmic ray
1.0 years through space, with an
10 dosage in interplanetary space additional 0.5-year stay on the surface.
during sunspot maximum with
shielding
5.0 Lowest annual dosage for which no Problem 1 - What would be the total
increases average human cancer radiation exposure in rems if the trip
rates have been detected.
3.0 Radiation exposure for a 90-day stay occurred during sunspot minimum, and
in the International Space Station shielded astronauts encountered 2
during average space weather
conditions flares like the one on January 15,
2.0 Radiation dosage for Apollo 2005?
Astronauts visiting the moon and
returning to Earth
1.0 Radiation absorbed by ISS Problem 2 - How many times more
astronauts from January 15, 2005
solar flare radiation would these astronauts
1.0 Maximum allowed for uranium absorb in a year than if they had
miners inhaling rock dust each year
14-day stay inside Space Shuttle stayed on Earth?
0.8 during solar maximum and highest
orbit elevation
0.3 Average cosmic ray and natural
background exposure each year
0.01 One flight across the North Pole
from new York to Tokyo

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 55
Problem 1 - What would be the total radiation exposure in rems if the trip occurred
during sunspot minimum, and encountered 2 flares like the one on January 15, 2005?
Answer: 40 rem from cosmic rays, 2x 1 rem for the flares, and 20x0.5 =10 rem on
Mars gives 32 rem total over 1.5 years.

Problem 2 - How many times more radiation would these astronauts absorb in a year
than if they had stayed on Earth?
Answer: One year on Earth has a dosage of about 0.3 rems each year. The average
Mars traveler in Problem 1 experienced 32 rem in 1.5 years or 21 rems/year, so this is
about 21/0.3 = 70 times the Earth surface amount.

Space radiation has not been a serious problem for NASA human missions
because they have been short in duration or have occurred in low Earth orbit,
within the protective magnetic field of the Earth,” said Philip Scarpa, M.D., a NASA
flight surgeon at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida and co-investigator in
the study. “However, if we plan to leave low Earth orbit to go back to the moon for
long durations or on to Mars, we need to better investigate this issue and assess
the risk to the astronauts in order to know whether we need to develop
countermeasures such as medications or improved shielding. We currently know
very little about the effects of space radiation, especially heavy element cosmic
radiation, which is expected on future space missions and was the type of
radiation used in this study.

“In addition, we should expect that within each critical organ system, there may
be different cell sensitivities that need to be considered when defining space
radiation dose limits.” Scarpa said.

The finding raises questions about the cognitive and emotional risks associated
with radiation exposure during human space exploration missions.

“There is a growing body of evidence that the death of these types of cells is a
potential adverse effect of radiation during cancer treatment, but it's not been
discussed in terms of space travel,” said Jack M. Parent, M.D., a neurologist at the
University of Michigan who was not involved in the research. “Radiation has been
associated with adverse cognitive effects, which is a potential hazard during space
missions. Shielding and other measures to block the effects of radiation have to be
strongly considered. The subject certainly deserves more study.”
From [Link]

Space Math [Link]

 Dosage Curves for Solar Proton Events 56
The Solar Proton Event
1600
(SPE) of October, 1989 produced
an intense series of radiation
1400 events that spanned about 250
hours in time before the particle
stream ended. SPEs are high-
1200
energy protons created by powerful
explosions on the sun, and travel at
Accumulated Dose (Rem)

1000 nearly the speed of light. When they

arrive at Earth, that are a severe
800
hazard for astronauts, and can
damage satellites and their
sensitive electrical systems.
600

Dr. Lawrence Townsend at

400 the University of Tennessee
calculated the intensity versus time
history of the October, 1989 event
200
to calculate the total, unshielded,
accumulated radiation dosage
0 shown in the graph to the left.
0 50 100 150 200 250

Time (Hours)

Problem 1 - What was the total radiation dose in Rems from the October 1989 Solar
Proton Event after 250 hours (10.4 days)?

Problem 2 - A spacecraft is designed with aluminum walls that have a combined

2
shielding of 19 gm/cm to reduce incoming radiation by a factor of 500 times. What
accumulated radiation dose in Rems would the astronauts have been exposed to
after

A) 100 hours?

B) 200 hours?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 56
Problem 1 - What was the total radiation dose from the October 1989 Solar Proton
Event after 250 hours (10.4 days)? Answer: About 1380 rems.

Problem 2 - A spacecraft is designed with aluminum walls that have a combined

2
shielding of 19 gm/cm to reduce incoming radiation by a factor of 500 times. What
accumulated radiation dose in Rems would the astronauts have been exposed to after
A) 100 hours? B) 200 hours?

Answer: A) At 100-hours, the outside dose is about 1120 rems. A 500x reduction
yields a dose at that time of 1120/500 = 2.2 rems. B) At 200 hours, the outside dose is
about 1350 rems, so the inside astronaut dose is 1350/500 = 2.7 rems.

Note: At ground-level on Earth, the background dose is 0.3 rems/year so a lifetime

dose is about 20 rems. When properly shielded, astronauts are not exposed to
hazardous levels of radiation even during intense solar flares…unless they happen to
be outside the spacecraft in a spacesuit. Under those conditions, the radiation
2
shielding is only 1 gm/cm , and radiation is only reduced by about 10%, making a
Solar Proton Event like the one in October 1989 equal to 1380 rems x 0.8 = 1,104
rems which is lethal. This is why EVAs are the most risky undertaking by astronauts.

Space Math [Link]

 How to Calculate Shielding Thickness 57

100

Reduction (%) 10

0.1

0.01
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Shielding (gm/cm2)

Most people have heard that radiation can be blocked or 'shielded' so that
it does less harm to humans. Often, substances such as lead are used when
weight is not an issue. But for space applications, weight costs money,
approximately $8,000 per pound for Earth-orbiting payloads.
Radiation in space can be electromagnetic (x-rays and gamma rays) or
particulate (protons, electrons, alpha-particles), and each has to be blocked to
safe levels so that satellites and astronauts are not harmed.
There are many different materials that can be used as radiation shielding.
We will focus on aluminum, which is a common ingredient to spacecraft and
satellite walls. The curve above gives the percentage of reduction in the radiation
2
as a function of the shielding coefficient in grams/cm . Spacesuits typically have 1
2 2
gm/cm of shielding while the walls of the Space Shuttle can be 10 gm/cm .

Problem 1 - A plate of aluminum is 4.8 centimeters thick. If the density of

3
aluminum is 2.7 gm/cm , what will be A) the shielding coefficient? B) The
reduction factor of the radiation passing through the shield?

Problem 2 - A rare Carrington Superflare produces about 6,000 rem on the

outside wall of a spacecraft. What must be the shielding thickness so that no more
than 6 rem makes it through to the astronauts?

Problem 3 - The astronauts in a spacecraft will be in space for 2 years, in a

radiation environment that could produce as much as 500 rems/year of radiation.
What is the minimum spacecraft wall thickness that will allow the astronauts to
accumulate no more than 1 rem of radiation during the entire voyage?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 57
Problem 1 - A plate of aluminum is 4.8 centimeters thick. If the density of aluminum is
3
2.7 gm/cm , what will be A) the shielding coefficient? B) The reduction factor of the
radiation passing through the shield?

3 2
Answer: A) 2.7 gm/cm x 4.8 cm = 13 gm/cm . B) From the graph, at a shielding
2
of 13 gm/cm , the curve indicates 1%' so the radiation has been reduced in strength by
a factor of 100 times.

Problem 2 - A rare Carrington Superflare produces about 6,000 rem on the outside
wall of a spacecraft. What must be the shielding thickness so that no more than 6 rem
makes it through to the astronauts?

Answer: We need to reduce the radiation to 100% x (6/6000) = 0.10%. From the
2
curve, this will occur for shielding greater than about 25 gm/cm .

Problem 3 - The astronauts in a spacecraft will be in space for 2 years, in a radiation

environment that could produce as much as 500 rems/year of radiation. What is the
minimum spacecraft wall thickness that will allow the astronauts to accumulate no
more than 1 rem of radiation during the entire voyage?

Answer: The total radiation dosage for the trip is 2 years x (500 rem/year) = 1000
rems. We want this to me no more than 1 rem inside the spacecraft so the incoming
radiation it must be reduced by a factor of 1/1000 or 0.1%. From the vertical scale on
2
the graph we see that '0.1' corresponds to a shielding of 24 gm/cm of aluminum.
3
Because the density of aluminum is 2.7 gm/cm , the wall thickness would be 24/2.7 =
8.9 centimeters. This is the minimum thickness, and thicker walls will reduce the
radiation levels even further.

Space Math [Link]

 Data Corruption by High-Energy Particles 58

Solar flares can severely affect sensitive instruments in

space and corrupt the data that they produce. On July 14, 2000
the sun produced a powerful X-class flare, which was captured
by instruments onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
(SOHO). The EIT imager operating at a wavelength of 195
Angstroms, showed a brilliant flash of light (left image). When
these particles arrived at the SOHO satellite some time later,
they caused the imaging equipment to develop ‘snow’ as the
individual particles streaked through the sensitive electronic
equipment. The above images taken by the SOHO LASCO c2
and c3 imagers show what happened to that instrument when
this shower of particles arrived. The date and time information
(hr : min) is given in the lower left corner of each image, and
give the approximate times of the events.

Problem 1: At about what time did the solar flare first erupt on the sun?
Problem 2: At about what time did the LASCO imagers begin to show significant signs of the particles having
arrived?
Problem 3: If the SOHO satellite was located 147 million kilometers from the sun, about what was the speed of
the arriving particles?
Problem 4: If the speed of light is 300,000 km/sec, what percentage of light-speed were the particles traveling?

Space Math [Link]

 58
Answer Key:

Problem 1: At about what time did the solar flare first erupt on the sun?

Answer: The EIT image time says 10:24 or 10 hours and 24 minutes Universal Time
The reason this is not an exact time is because the images were taken at set times, and not at the exact
times of the start or end of the events. To within the 24-minute interval between successive EIT images, we
will assume that 10:24 UT is the closest time.

Problem 2: At about what time did the LASCO imagers begin to show significant signs of the particles
having arrived?

Answer: The top sequence shows that the ‘snow began to fall’ at 10:54 UT. The second sequence
suggests a later time near 11:18. However, the 11:18 time is later than the 10:54 time. The time interval
between exposures is 24 minutes, but the top series started at 10:30 and ended at 10:54 UT, while the
lower series started at 10:42 and ended at 11:18. That means, comparing the exposures between the two
series, the snow arrived between 10:42 and 10:54 UT. We can split the difference and assume that the
snow began around 10:48 UT.

Problem 3: If the SOHO satellite was located 147 million kilometers from the sun, about what was the
speed of the arriving particles?

Answer: The elapsed time between the sighting of the flare by EIT (10:24 UT) and the beginning of the
snow seen by LASCO (10:48 UT) is 10:48 UT – 10:24 UT = 24 minutes. The speed of the particles was
about 147 million km/24 minutes or 6.1 million km/minute.

Problem 4: If the speed of light is 300,000 km/sec, what percentage of light-speed were the particles
traveling?

Answer: Converting 6.1 million km/minute into km/sec we get 6,100,000 km/sec x (1 min /60 sec)
or 102,000 kilometers/sec. Comparing this to the speed of light we see that the particles traveled at
(102,000/300,000)x100% = 34% the speed of light!

Note: Because these damaging high-speed particles can arrive only a half-hour after the x-ray flash is first
seen on the sun, it can be very difficult to protect sensitive equipment from these storms of particles if you
wait for the first sighting of the solar flare flash. In some cases, science research satellites have actually
been permanently damaged by these particle storms.

Space Math [Link]

 Computer Memory and Glitches 59
Computers are used in
space, but that means they can
get clobbered by radiation and
develop 'glitches' in the way
they work. Sometimes these
glitches cause the satellite to
fail, or transmit corrupted data.

This is a photo of the

Pentium III microprocessor
board is about 15 cm wide. The
solid, colored rectangular areas
are memory locations that store
data, the computer operating
system, and other critical
information.

Suppose that 2/3 of the area of a satellite's processor memory is used for data
storage, 1/4 is for the computer's operating system, and the remainder is for program
storage.

Problem 1 - Suppose that the total size of the memory is 1,200 megabytes. How
many megabytes are available for program storage?

Problem 2 - Suppose that for a satellite in space, cosmic rays cause glitches and
errors in the computer memory at a rate of 1 glitch per hour for every 1 gigabytes of
memory. If the satellite is in operation for 10 hours, how many glitches will this
satellite's memory encounter?

Problem 3 - Given the areas of the different computer memory functions, how many
glitches would you expect in the operating system memory?

Problem 4 - After 10 hours of operation, about how many operating system failures
would you expect, and what would be the average time between operating system
failures?

Problem 5 - An engineer decides to re-design the satellite's memory by splitting up

the memory for the operating system into 4 separate areas. Why do you think this
design might reduce the number of glitches caused by the cosmic rays, or why would
this not work?

Space Math [Link]

 59
Answer Key
Problem 1 - Suppose that the total size of the memory is 1,200 megabytes. How many
megabytes are available for program storage? Answer: Program storage is 1 - 2/3 -
1/4 = 12/12 - 8/12 - 3/12 = 1/12 of the memory. Since there are 1,200 megabytes of
computer memory for all functions, the program memory occupies 1,200 megabytes x
1/12 = 100 megabytes.

Problem 2 - Suppose that for a satellite in space, cosmic rays cause glitches and
errors in the computer memory at a rate of 1 glitch per hour for every 1 gigabytes of
memory. If the satellite is in operation for 10 hours, how many glitches will this
satellite's memory encounter? Answer: The computer memory is 1,200 megabytes
and since 1,000 megabytes = 1 gigabyte, the memory is 1.2 gigabytes in size. 1
glitch/hour per gigabyte x 1.2 gigabytes = 1.2 glitches/hour. For 10 hours the total
number of glitches will be 1.2 x 10 = 12 glitches for the entire memory area.

Problem 3 - Given the areas of the different computer memory functions, how many
glitches would you expect in the operating system memory? Answer: The operating
system occupies 1/4 of the memory, so if the glitches are random, the operating
system should experience 12 glitches x 1/4 = 3 glitches.

Problem 4 - After 10 hours of operation, about how many operating system failures
would you expect, and what would be the average time between operating system
failures? Answer: In 10 hours, the average time between operating system glitches
would be 10 hours / 3 glitches = 3 1/3 hours between glitches.

Problem 5 - An engineer decides to re-design the satellite's memory by splitting up the

memory for the operating system into 4 separate areas. Why do you think this design
might reduce the number of glitches caused by the cosmic rays, or why would this not
work? Answer: No, because the total area of the operating system memory is
exactly the same, so the probability that it will receive a glitch remains the same
as before.

Space Math [Link]

 A Bit of Satellite Math 60
In the table below you will find information about the communication satellites that were
launched in 2005. Assume that each satellite will survive until the year when its lifespan
expires. Most are designed to last 15 years before needing replacement. Solar storms and
cosmic rays damage the satellite solar panels and cause a 2% decrease in electrical power.
Assume that this means that the satellite loses 2% of its transponders each year. Each
satellite transponder can carry 2 channels of regular (analog) TV programs, or 6 channels of
digital TV programs.

Name Lifespan Number of Cost Retire Revenue Break even

In years Transponders (million $) year (million $) year
Hotbird-7A 15 38 200
Arabsat 4A 15 40 200
AMC-12 16 72 280
StarOne C2 13 44 150
Insat-4A 12 24 67
Intelsat IA-8 13 64 320
Spaceway-2 13 48 250
DirecTV-8 12 32 260
AMC-23 15 38 280
Anik F1R 15 56 250
Echostar 10 15 32 250
Chinasat-8 15 52 100
Telkom-2 15 24 150
Thaicom-4 12 38 400
Galaxy-14 15 24 270
Galaxy-15 15 24 270
Apstar-6 14 50 225
Asiasat-6 12 50 200
Express AM3 12 28 290
Express AM2 12 28 290
Measat-3 15 48 132

Problem 1 - A) What is the total number of transponders carried by these satellites? B) How many
analog satellite TV channels can be supported by these satellites? C) How many digital TV channels
can be supported by these satellites?

Problem 2 - In Column 4, determine the retirement year of the satellite given its launch year and
lifespan. A) What is the earliest year when this group of satellites will begin to retire? B) What year will
the oldest satellites retire? C) How old will you be when the last satellite is retired?

Problem 3 - Satellite transponders are rented by the satellite owner to TV companies to carry their
programs. A typical transponder costs $1.2 million to lease each year, and this represents income to
the satellite owner. In Column 6, calculate the annual revenue from each satellite’s transponders in
millions of dollars. A) What is the total revenue each year from these satellites? B) Which satellite
makes the most money each year? C) Which satellites make the least money each year?

Problem 4 - For each satellite, by what year will its cumulative revenue equal the cost of the satellite?
This is the ‘break even’ year when the satellite has paid for itself and from this year on is producing a
net profit to the owner. Enter the break-even year in Column 7.

For Experts: A) If the Hotbird-7A satellite actually loses 3% of its transponders each year, how much
money will the satellite have lost by the break-even year because of space weather? Assume it loses
the same number of transponders each year beginning with its first year.

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 60
Name Lifespan Number of Cost Retire Revenue Break even
In years Transponders (million $) year (million $) year
Hotbird-7A 15 38 200 2020 45.6 2010
Arabsat 4A 15 40 200 2020 48.0 2010
AMC-12 16 72 280 2021 86.4 2009
StarOne C2 13 44 150 2018 52.8 2008
Insat-4A 12 24 67 2017 28.8 2008
Intelsat IA-8 13 64 320 2018 76.8 2010
Spaceway-2 13 48 250 2018 57.6 2010
DirecTV-8 12 32 260 2017 38.4 2012
AMC-23 15 38 280 2020 45.6 2012
Anik F1R 15 56 250 2020 67.2 2009
Echostar 10 15 32 250 2020 38.4 2012
Chinasat-8 15 52 100 2020 62.4 2007
Telkom-2 15 24 150 2020 28.8 2011
Thaicom-4 12 38 400 2017 45.6 2014
Galaxy-14 15 24 270 2020 28.8 2015
Galaxy-15 15 24 270 2020 28.8 2015
Apstar-6 14 50 225 2019 60.0 2009
Asiasat-6 12 50 200 2017 60.0 2009
Express AM3 12 28 290 2017 33.6 2014
Express AM2 12 28 290 2017 33.6 2014
Measat-3 15 48 132 2020 57.6 2008

Problem 1) A) What is the total number of transponders carried by these satellites? B) How many analog
satellite TV channels can be supported by these satellites? C) How many digital TV channels can be
supported by these satellites? Answer; A) 854 transponders; B) About 854 x 2 = 1708 analog TV
channels. C) About 854 x 6 = 5124 digital TV channels.

Problem 2) In Column 4, determine the retirement year of the satellite given its launch year and lifespan.
A) What is the earliest year when this group of satellites will begin to retire? B) What year will the oldest
satellites retire? C) How old will you be when the last satellite is retired? Answer: A) The year 2017. B)
The year 2020 C) For a 14-year old student in 2005, you will be 14+15 = 29 years old when the oldest
satellite retires.

Problem 3) Satellite transponders are rented by the satellite owner to TV companies to carry their
programs. A typical transponder costs $1.2 million to lease each year, and this represents income to the
satellite owner. In Column 6, calculate the annual revenue from each satellite’s transponders in millions of
dollars. A) What is the total revenue each year from these satellites? B) Which satellite makes the most
money each year? C) Which satellite makes the least money each year? Answer: A) 1.0248 billion dollars.
B) AMC-12, C) Insat-4A, Telkom-2, Galaxy-14 and Galaxy-15.

Problem 4) For each satellite, by what year will its cumulative revenue equal the cost of the satellite? This
is the ‘break even’ year when the satellite has paid for itself and from this year on is producing a net profit
to the owner. Enter the break-even year in Column 7. Answer Example: Hotbird-7a makes $45.6 million
each year. It cost $200 million, so it will take (200/45.6) = 4.4 years. Rounding-up, it was launched in
2005, so by 2005+5 = 2010 it will have paid for itself. Rounding-down, students may also use 2005+4 =
2009.

For Experts. A) If the Hotbird-7A satellite loses 3% of its transponders each year how much money will
the satellite have lost by its break-even year because of space weather? Assume it loses the same
number of transponders each year beginning with its first year. Answer: Hotbird-7A reaches its break-
even year 4 years after launch. It will lose 38 x 0.03 = 1 transponder the first year, and the same number
for each of the remaining 3 years. The cumulative transponder loss for each year is 1 ,2, 3 ,4. for a
cumulative loss of 1.2 + 2.4 + 3.6 + 4.8 = $12 million. Select some other satellites to do the same
calculation. You may also want to do this on a spreadsheet! What will be the total loss of revenue due to
space weather for this entire collection of satellites?

Space Math [Link]

 ISS - Orbit Altitude Changes 61

The International Space Station is a 400-ton, $160 billion platform that

supports an international team of 3-5 astronauts for tours of duty lasting up to 6
months at a time. Like all satellites that orbit close to Earth, the atmosphere causes
the ISS orbit to decay steadily every day, so the ISS has to be 're-boosted' every
few months to prevent it from burning up in the atmosphere.

Problem 1 - Based on the following information, what is the altitude of the ISS by
April 2009?

"In January, the altitude was 340 kilometers. By March it has lost 8
kilometers before the Progress-59 supply ship raised its altitude by 5 kilometers. In
May, the ISS lost 4 1/2 kilometers and was re-boosted by the Progess-60 supply
ship by 5 1/2 kilometers. Again the ISS continued to lose altitude by 5 1/2
kilometers by July when the Progress-61 supply ship raised its orbit by 9 1/2
kilometers. The ISS altitude then fell by 3 kilometers by October when the Soyuz
TMA-11 mission re-boosted the station by 5 kilometers. The ISS continued to lose
altitude until late December, 2007 when it had lost a total of 8 1/2 kilometers since
its last re-boost by Soyuz. Since December 2007, the total of all the declines and
re-boosts added up to a net change of + 11 1/2 kilometers by April 2009. "

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 61
Problem 1 - Based on the following information, what is the altitude of the ISS by April
2009?

"In January, the altitude was 340 kilometers. By March it has lost 8 kilometers
before the Progress-59 supply ship raised its altitude by 5 kilometers. In May, the ISS
lost 4 1/2 kilometers and was re-boosted by the Progess-60 supply ship by 5 1/2
kilometers. Again the ISS continued to lose altitude by 5 1/2 kilometers by July when
the Progress-61 supply ship raised its orbit by 9 1/2 kilometers. The ISS altitude then
fell by 3 kilometers by October when the Soyuz TMA-11 mission re-boosted the station
by 5 kilometers. The ISS continued to lose altitude until late December, 2007 when it
had lost a total of 8 1/2 kilometers since its last re-boost by Soyuz. Since December
2007, the total of all the declines and re-boosts added up to a net change of + 11 1/2
kilometers by April 2009. "

Answer: 340 kilometers - 8 kilometers + 5 kilometers - 4 1/2 kilometers + 5 1/2

kilometers - 5 1/2 kilometers + 9 1/2 kilometers - 3 kilometers + 5 kilometers - 8 1/2
kilometers + 11 1/2 kilometers = 347 kilometers.

Note to Teacher: The figure below shows the altitude changes between November
1998 and July 2008.

Space Math [Link]

 The International Space Station - Follow that graph! 62
At the present time, the International Space Station is losing about 300 feet
(90 meters) of altitude every day. Its current altitude is about 345 km after a 7.0-
km re-boost by the Automated Transfer Vehicle, Jules Vern spacecraft on June
20, 2008. The graph below shows the ISS altitude since 1999.

The drag of Earth's atmosphere causes the ISS altitude to decrease each day, and
this is accelerated during sunspot maximum (between 2000-2001) when the dense
atmosphere extends to a much higher altitude. At altitudes below about 200 km,
spacecraft orbits decay and burn up within a week.

Problem 1 - From the present trends, what do you expect the altitude of the ISS to be
between 2010 until its retirement year around 2020?

Problem 2 - Sunspot maximum will occur between 2012-2014, and we might expect a 50-
km decline in altitude during this period if the solar activity weaker than the peak in 2000,
which is currently forecasted. Including this effect, what might be the altitude of the ISS in
2020? Is the ISS in danger of atmospheric burn-up?

Problem 3 - What are the uncertainties in predicting ISS re-entry, and what strategy
would you use if you were the Program Manager for the ISS?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key
62
Problem 1 – Answer: The graph below shows several plausible linear trends depending on
which features you use as a model for the slope. The predicted altitude would be between 220
and 300 km .

Problem 2 - The graph below shows, for example, two forecasts that follow the extremes
of the general decline trend, but then assume all of the altitude loss occurred between
2012-2014 at 50 km. Note that the range of altitudes in the graph in either case is 180-260
km. This places the ISS in danger of burn-up before its retirement year in 2014.

Problem 3 - The largest uncertainty is the strength of the next solar activity (sunspot)
cycle. If it is stronger than the previous maximum between 2000-2001, the ISS altitude
losses will be even larger in 2012-2014, and the ISS will be in extreme danger of re-entry
before 2020.
The period after 2010, when the US losses access to space travel and has to rely
on Russian low-capacity shuttles, will be a critical time for the ISS, and an intensely
worrisome one for ISS managers.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Activity and Satellite Power Declines
63
Soon after the first satellites were placed into orbit, engineers began to notice that the electrial
power produced by solar panels to operate the satellites was slowly declining. Very careful studies of
the way that solar cells worked in space soon came up with a culprit: Cosmic rays! Cosmic rays are
very high-speed ions, protons and electrons that travel through space. Some are produced by the sun
during solar flares, while others come from space beyond the solar systems itself. Cosmic rays are
deflected by strong magnetic fields. Fortunately, Earth has a very strong magnetic field that shields us
from most of these cosmic rays, but enough get through that they collide with solar panels and solar
cells on satellites orbiting Earth. Over time, these fast-moving particles cause changes in solar cells,
making them less able to generate the electricity they are supposed to when sunlight falls on them.
Thanks to decades of study, engineers can make very accurate models of these cosmic rays effects
and incorporate them into the design of satellite power systems. Below is an actual graph prepared by
Dr. Paul Brekke, the Project Scientist for the Solar Heliospheric Observatory. It shows how fast the
satellite’s solar arrays have changed their power output since 1995.

Solar
Power

Year

Question 1: By how much has the SOHO satellite power declined by 2002?

Question 2: Satellites often remain usable for 15 years. By what percentage will the
electricity from the SOHO solar panels have declined by that time?

Question 3: The instruments on a satellite require 850 watts of power to operate. If a

scientist wants her instrument to continue working for 15 years, how large should the
satellite power supply be at the time of launch?

Question 4: The surface of a satellite has an area of 1000 square centimeters. The solar
cells can generate about 0.03 watts per square centimeter. A) What is the total power
available to the satellite by covering its surface with solar cells? B) If the satellite is to last
15 years, what is the maximum power that the instruments can draw and still work after 15
years?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 63

Question 1: By how much has the SOHO satellite power declined by 2002?
Answer: From the plot, the power has declined to 88% of its original 100% at launch.

Question 2: Satellites often remain usable for 15 years. By what percentage will the
electricity from the SOHO solar panels have declined by that time? Answer: From the
previous answer, the decline was 12% in 6 years, so after 15 years the decline will be
(15/6) x 12% = 30%.

Question 3: The instruments on a satellite require 850 watts of power to operate. If a

scientist wants her instrument to continue working for 15 years, how large should the
satellite power supply be at the time of launch? Answer: From the previous answer, if the
experiments need 850 watts to operate after 15 years, the solar panels have to be
designed to produce 30% more than 850 watts at the start of the mission or (1.30) x 850
watts = 1105 watts.

Question 4: The surface of a satellite has an area of 1000 square centimeters. The solar
cells can generate about 0.03 watts per square centimeter. A) What is the total power
available to the satellite by covering its surface with solar cells? B) If the satellite is to last
15 years, what is the maximum power that the instruments can draw and still work after 15
years?
Answer:
A) The total power will be 3000 square cm x 0.03 watts per square cm = 90 watts.
B) Because the solar panels will degrade by 30% during the 15 years, this means that
after 15 years you will only have 90 watts x 0.70 = 63 watts to run your instruments!!
Scientists typically take advantage of the surplus of energy at the start of a mission to run
the most energy-consuming instruments, then shut them down one at a time until the
satellite finally stops being a useful scientific instrument.

Space Math [Link]

 Satellite Power Loss - ACE 64

22

21

20

19

18

17

16

15
1/ 1/ 1997 1/ 1/ 1998 1/1/1999 1/1/2000 1/1/2001 1/1/2002 1/ 1/ 2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006

The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite is located at the 'L1'

point in the Earth-Sun system, which is located 1.5 million kilometers from Earth
along a line that connects the center of the sun with the center of Earth. From
this vantage point, it has an unobstructed, stable view of the sun, and the
conditions in interplanetary space far from Earth's messy environment.
From this location, outside Earth's protective magnetic field, it receives a
steady rain of high-energy 'cosmic ray' particles that strike the satellite's solar
panels and cause a steady loss of electrical power over time as the solar panels
are eroded by the nuclear impacts.
The graph above shows decline in solar panel current between
September 1998 and February 2006. The periodic 'ups and down' cycle is caused
by the seasonal changes in the orientation of the solar panels relative to the sun,
since the satellite orbits in the orbital plane of Earth.

Problem 1 - Draw a line through the cycles that passes half-way between each of
the maxima and minima of the curve.

Problem 2 - What is the slope of this line in Amperes/year?

Problem 3 - What is the percent change in the solar power in percent/year?

Problem 4 - What is the amperage of the solar panels by 1/1/2010?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 64
Problem 1 - Draw a line through the cycles that passes half-way between each of the
maxima and minima of the curve. Answer: See below.

Problem 2 - What is the slope of this line in Amperes/year?

Answer: Slope = ( y2 - Y1) / (x2 - x1). Each horizontal division is 1 year so x2 - x1 =
10 years. The vertical change is from y1 = 21.1 to y2 = 17.3 or y2-y1 = -3.8 Amperes,
so the slope is M = - 3.8/10 = -0.38 amperes/year.

Problem 3 - What is the percent change in the solar power in percent/year?

Answer: Selecting the average value of the amperage over this time interval we have A
= (17.3 + 21.1)/2 = 19.2 Amperes. Then the percent change is just
P = 100% x (-0.38/19.2) or P = -2.0% / year.

Problem 4 - What is the amperage of the solar panels by 1/1/2010?

Answer: The date 1/1/2010 is 13 years from the start of the data in the graph for which
A = 21 amperes, so after 13 years it will be A = 21.0 - 0.38 (13) or A = 16.1 amperes.

Space Math [Link]

 Satellite Power Loss - WIND 65

13.9
Solar Power (Amps)

13.4

12.9

12.4
1 51 101 151 201 251 301
Time (5-day intervals)

The WIND satellite follows a complex orbit that takes it inside and outside
Earth's magnetic field in order to obtain gas and magnetic field measurements on
the solar wind and observe radio waves in the near-Earth environment. The
graph above shows decline in solar panel current between its launch date on
November 1, 1994 and July 6, 2006.

Problem 1 - What is the average slope of this amperage curve in amperes/year?

Problem 2 - What is the percent change in the solar power in percent/year?

Problem 3 - What is the amperage of the solar panels by 11/1/2010?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 65
Problem 1 - What is the average slope of this amperage curve in amperes/year?

Answer: Slope = (y2 - y1) / (x2 - x1). For reasonable choices of the points (x1,y1) and
(x2, y2) as for instance (1, 13.8) and (301,12.6). Next, the tie scale says that the
intervals are in multiples of 5 days, so we get the points (5,13.8) and (1505,12.60 in
units of days and amperes. Then the slope is just m = (12.6 - 13.8)/(1505 - 5)
M = -1.2/1500 and so, m = -0.0008 amperes/day. Converting this into amperes/year
we get m = -0.29 amperes/year.

Problem 2 - What is the percent change in the solar power in percent/year?

Answer: The average amperage during this time is just (12.6 + 13.8)/2 = 13.2
amperes, so the average rate of change of the amperage is just P = 100% x (-
0.29/13.2) so P = -2.2%/year.

Problem 3 - What is the amperage of the solar panels by 11/1/2010?

Answer: The number of years since 11/1/1994 is just 16, so the current loss from the
aging panels is just A = 13.8 - 0.29 x 16 so A = 9.2 amperes.

Space Math [Link]

 Satellite Power Loss - Polar 66
POLAR Solar Array Current (OSAI)
17.00

16.00

15.00
November 2001

14.00
October 2003

13.00

12.00

11.00

"Bastille Day Storm"

July 14, 2000
10.00

9.00
55
193
331
103
241
14
152
290
63
201
339
112
250
22
160
298
71
209
347
120
258
31
169
307
79
217
355
128
DOY 1996-2006

The Polar satellite, launched on February 24, 1996 is located in a highly

elliptical orbit that spends most of its time inside Earth's protective magnetic field
(called the magnetosphere). The graph above shows the electrical current
decline from the solar panels between February 24, 1996 ('55' on the horizontal
axis) and May 8, 2006 ( '128').

Problem 1 - What is the average slope of this amperage curve in Amperes/year?

Problem 2 - What is the percent change in the solar power in percent/year?

Problem 3 - What is the amperage of the solar panels by 1/1/2010?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 66
Problem 1 - What is the average slope of this amperage curve in Amperes/year?

Answer: Slope = (y2 - y1) / (x2 - x1). For reasonable choices of the points (x1,y1) and
(x2, y2) as for instance (2/24/1996, 16.0) on the far-left and (5/8/2006,11.3). Next, we
have to calculate the number of years between the given dates. This is about 2006.35-
1996.15 or 10.2 years. Then the slope is just m = (11.3 - 16.0)/(10.2)
And so m = -0.46 amperes/year.

Problem 2 - What is the percent change in the solar power in percent/year?

Answer: The average amperage during this time is just (11.3 + 16.0)/2 = 13.7
amperes, so the average rate of change of the amperage is just P = 100% x (-
0.46/13.7) so P = -3.4%/year.

Problem 3 - What is the amperage of the solar panels by 1/1/2010?

Answer: The number of years since 2/24/1996 is just 13.8, so the current loss from the
aging panels is just A = 16.0 - 0.46 x 13.8 so A = 9.7 amperes.

Space Math [Link]

 Satellite Power Loss - Hubble Space Telescope 67
SA-3 ACTUAL AND PREDICTED TOTAL POWER OUTPUT
(February, 2002 through Dec., 2005)
Adjusted for 34.97V and 0° Incidence Angle
7000
Predict
6750 Actual
DOY 111 All SPAs
All SPAs -DD SPA Ckt On-line,
On-line Loss (1A) All SPAs TGS
6500 All SPAs
On-line,
On-line
Bat Cap
ZGSP
6250

6000
Power (Watts)

DOY 036
Structure Short
String Loss (2A)
5750

5500

5250
-A SPA Off-
line

5000

4750 +D, +E SPAs Off-line

Charge Rate Optimization

4500
0 68
0 98
0 28

20 2.1 8
02 88

20 2.2 8
02 48

20 2.3 8
02 08
0 38
0 03

20 3.0 3
20 3.0 3
03 93

20 3.1 3
20 3.1 3
20 3.2 3
03 13

20 3.2 3
03 73

20 3.3 3
20 3.3 3
04 63

20 4.0 8
04 58

20 4.1 8
04 18
0 48
0 78

20 4.2 8
04 38

20 4.2 8
20 4.3 8
04 28

20 5.0 8
05 22
0 52

20 5.1 2
05 12

20 5.1 2
20 5.2 2
05 02

20 5.2 2
05 62

20 5.3 2
05 22
06 52
17
0 5

0 1

0 7

0 3
0 6

0 2
0 5
0 8

0 4

0 0
0 3

0 2

0 8

0 0

0 6
0 9

0 5

0 8

0 4
0 7

0 3

0 9
20 2.0
20 2.0
20 2.1
20 2.1

20 .2

20 .2

20 .3
20 3.0
20 3.0

20 .1

20 .2

20 .3

20 .0

20 .0

20 .1
20 4.1
20 4.2

20 .2

20 .3

20 .0
20 5.0

20 .1

20 .2

20 .2

20 .3
.0
0
20

Year

The Hubble Space Telescope is located in a low-Earth orbit at an altitude

of about 370 kilometers, with an orbit period of about 90 minutes. The constant
impact of high-energy particles on the solar panels causes a steady decrease in
the power output of these panels over time as the trend in the graph shows.

Problem 1 - Draw a line that passes through the middle of this curve from left to
right.

Problem 2 - What is the average slope of this solar power curve in watts/year?

Problem 3 - What is the percent change in the solar power in percent/year?

Problem 4 - What is the wattage of the solar panels by 1/1/2015?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 67
Problem 1 - Draw a line that passes through the middle of this curve from left to right.

Problem 2 - What is the average slope of this solar panel power curve in watts/year?

Answer: Slope = (y2 - y1) / (x2 - x1). For reasonable choices of the points (x1,y1) and
(x2, y2) as for instance (2002.068, 6500) on the far-left and (2006.017,5250). Next, we
have to calculate the number of years between the given dates. This is about
2006.017-2002.068 or 3.9 years. Then the slope is just m = (5250-6500)/(3.9)
And so m = -320 watts/year.

Problem 3 - What is the percent change in the solar power in percent/year?

Answer: The average amperage during this time is just (6500+5250)/2 = 5875 watts,
so the average rate of change of the power is just P = 100% x (-320/5875)
so P = -5.4%/year.

Problem 4 - What is the wattage of the solar panels by 11/1/2015?

Answer: The number of years since 2002.068 is just 12.9 years, so the power loss
from the aging panels is just A = 6500 - 320 x 12.9 so A = 2,372 watts.

Space Math [Link]

 Satellite Power Loss - IUE 68

The International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) satellite was located in a

geosynchronous Earth orbit within the outer magnetosphere. From
'geosynchronous orbit' at a distance of 42,164 km from the center of Earth, it was
permanently located at the same equatorial longitude of Earth as Earth rotated
once each 24-hours.
The above power curves were published in "IUE Spacecraft
Operations:Final Report (ESA, 1997, SP-1215) and show the amount of power
produced by the solar panels in terms of the orientation angle with respect to the
sun (Beta).

Problem 1 - By how much did the maximum solar array power change between
1978 and 1996?

Problem 2 - What is the average slope of this power decline in watts/year?

Problem 3 - What is the percent change in the solar power in percent/year?

Problem 4 - Had the mission continued 5 more years beyond 1996 what would
the wattage of the solar panels have been by the end of that time?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 68
Problem 1 - By how much did the maximum solar array power change between 1978
and 1996? Answer: Over the 18 year span of time, the maximum wattage declined
from 380 watts to about 160 watts.

Problem 2 - What is the average slope of this power decline in watts/year?

Answer: Slope = (y2 - y1) / (x2 - x1). Then the slope is just m = (160-380)/(18)
so, m = -12.2 watts/year.

Problem 3 - What is the percent change in the solar power in percent/year?

Answer: The average amperage during this time is just (380+160)/2 = 270 watts, so
the average rate of change of the power is just P = 100% x (-12.2/270)
so P = -4.5%/year.

Problem 4 - Had the mission continued 5 more years beyond 1996 what would the
wattage of the solar panels have been by the end of that time?

Answer: The number of years since 1978 is just 23, so the power loss from the aging
panels was just A = 380 - 12.2 x 23 so A = 99.4 watts.

Space Math [Link]

 Satellite Drag and the Hubble Space Telescope 69
The Hubble Space Telescope was never designed to operate forever. What
to do with the observatory remains a challenge for NASA once its scientific mission
is completed in 2012. Originally, a Space Shuttle was proposed to safely return it to
Earth, where it would be given to the National Air and Space Museum in
Washington DC. Unfortunately, after the last Servicing Mission, STS-125, in May,
2009, no further Shuttle visits are planned. As solar activity increases, the upper
atmosphere heats up and expands, causing greater friction for low-orbiting
satellites like HST, and a more rapid re-entry.

The curve below shows the predicted altitude for that last planned re-boost
in 2009 of 18-km. NASA plans to use a robotic spacecraft after ca 2015 to allow a
controlled re-entry for HST, but if that were not the case, it would re-enter the
atmosphere sometime after 2020.

Problem 1 – The last Servicing Mission in 2009 will only extend the science
operations by another 5 years. How long after that time will the HST remain in
orbit?

Problem 2 – Once HST reaches an altitude of 400 km, with no re-boosts, about
how many weeks will remain before the satellite burns up? (Hint: Use a millimeter
ruler.)

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 69

Problem 1 – The last Servicing Mission in 2009 will only extend the science operations
by another 5 years. How long after that time will the HST remain in orbit?

Answer: The Servicing Mission will occur in 2009. The upgrades an gyro repairs
will extend the satellite’s operations by 5 more years, so if it re-enters after 2020
it will have about 6 years to go before uncontrolled re-entry.

Problem 2 – Once HST reaches an altitude of 400 km, with no re-boosts, about how
many weeks will remain before the satellite burns up? (Hint: Use a millimeter ruler.)

Answer: Use a millimeter ruler to determine the scale of the horizontal axis in
weeks per millimeter. Mark the point on the curve that corresponds to a vertical
value of 400 km. Draw a line to the horizontal axis and measure its distance from
2013 in millimeters. Convert this to weeks using the scale factor you calculated.
The answer should be about 50 weeks.

“HST science lifetime could potentially be limited by HST spacecraft orbital decay. Long-
term orbit decay predictions are developed based on atmospheric models and solar flux
predictions. All contributing combinations of solar flux strength and timing are run in order
to bound the orbit decay predictions from a best case atmosphere to a worst case
("unkind") atmosphere. The predictions also consider the effects of Space Shuttle re-boost
during HST Servicing Missions. The figure shows the model results for a worst case, 2-
sigma high solar cycle (Cycle 24), followed by an early Cycle 25 of average intensity.
Figure 3 depicts four curves for various shuttle re-boost scenarios. For the case of no
further HST re-boost in any future servicing mission, the prediction is that HST will reenter
the Earth's atmosphere in late 2013 or early 2014. The HST science program will cease
approximately one year prior to re-entry due to loss of the precise attitude control
capability required for science observing, as the atmospheric drag increases. The earliest
expected end of the HST science program due to orbital decay is thus late 2012. Further
information about this topic is contained in the accompanying Hubble Fact Sheet, entitled
"HST Orbit Decay and Shuttle Re-boost." [From ‘Expected HST Science Lifetime after SM4”,
HST Program Office; July 21, 2003]

Space Math [Link]

 The Hubble Space Telescope Re-entry 70
Because of friction with
Earth's atmosphere, satellites in Low
Earth Orbit below 600 kilometers,
experience a gradual loss of orbit
altitude over time. The lower the
orbit, the higher is the rate of altitude
loss, and it can be approximated by
the formula:

T (h) = 0.012 De0.025( h −150)

where h is the altitude of the orbit in
kilometers above Earth's surface,
and T(h) is in days until re-entry. The
variable, D, is called the ballistic
coefficient and is a measure of how
massive the satellite is compared to
the surface area facing its direction
2
of motion (in kilograms/meter ).

Problem 1 - Graph this exponential function for a domain of satellite orbits given
2 2
by 150 kilometers < h < 600 kilometers for D = 50 kg/m and D = 200 kg/m .

Problem 2 - Graph this function for the same domain and values for D as a log-
linear plot: h vs log(T).

2
Problem 3 - What is the average slope of the function for D = 100 kg/m within 5
kilometers of an altitude near A) 600 kilometers? B) 150 kilometers? C) How do
you physically interpret these two rates?

2
Problem 4 - Suppose that the Hubble Space Telescope, D=11 kg/m , is located
in an orbit with an altitude of 575 kilometers following the 're-boost' provided by
the Space Shuttle crew during the last Servicing Mission in 2009. The Space
Shuttle raised the orbit of HST by 10 kilometers. A) By what year would HST have
re-entered had this re-boost not occurred? B) About when will the HST re-enter
the atmosphere following this Servicing Mission?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 70
Problem 1 - Graph this exponential function for a domain of satellite orbits given by
2 2
150 kilometers < h < 600 kilometers for D = 50 kg/m and D = 200 kg/m .

200000

150000
T(days)

50
100000
200

50000

0
0 200 400 600 800

H(kilom eters)

Problem 2 - Graph this function for the same domain and values for D as a log-linear
plot: h vs log(T).
Log(days)

50
200

0 200 400 600 800

H(kilom eters)

Problem 3 - Answer A) m = [T(605)-T(595)]/(605 - 595) so m(600)= 2,312 days/km.

B) m = [T(155)-T(145)]/(155 - 145) so m(150)= 0.03 days/km.
C) This means that at an altitude of 600 kilometers, increasing the altitude of the
satellite by 1 kilometer means that the satellite re-enters 2,312 days (6.3 years later).
At an altitude of 150 kilometers, you only gain an additional 0.03 days (43 minutes!)
with the same orbit increase. This means that re-boosting a satellite when it is in the
higher orbit makes a HUGE difference in the lifetime of the satellite.

Problem 4 - Answer: A) Before the re-boost, the altitude was 575 - 10 km = 565 km,
in 2009, so T = 0.012(11)e(0.025 (565-150)) = 4,230 days or 11 years from 2009 so
the reentry would have occurred around 2020. B) After the re-boost, the altitude was
575 km in 2009, so T = 0.012(11)e(0.025 (575-150)) = 5,432 days or 15 years from
2009 so the reentry occurs around 2024.

Space Math [Link]

 Sunspots and Satellite Re-entry 71
Satellite technology is everywhere! Right now, there are over 1587 working satellites
orbiting Earth. They represent over $160 billion in assets to the world’s economy. In the United
States alone, satellites and the many services they provide produce over $225 billion every
year. But satellites do not work forever. Typically they have to be replaced every 10 to 15 years
as new services are created, and better technology is developed. Satellites in the lowest orbits,
called Low Earth Orbit (LEO) orbit between 300 to 1000 kilometers above the ground. Because
Earth’s atmosphere extends hundreds of kilometers into space, LEO satellites eventually
experience enough frictional drag from the atmosphere that at altitudes below 300 km, they fall
back to Earth and burn up. The table below gives the number of LEO satellites that re-entered
Earth’s atmosphere, and the average sunspot number, for each year since 1969.

Year Sunspots Satellites

2004 43 19
2003 66 31
2002 109 38
2001 123 41
2000 124 37
1999 96 25
1998 62 30
1997 20 21
1996 8 22
1995 18 20
1994 31 17
1993 54 28 Figure: A typical weather satellite
1992 93 41
1991 144 40
1990 145 30 Problem 1: On the same graph, plot the number of
1989 162 45 sunspots and decayed satellites (vertical axis) for
1988 101 33 each year (horizontal axis). During what years did
1987 29 13 the peaks in the sunspots occur?
1986 11 16
1985 16 17 Problem 2: When did the peaks in the satellite re-
1984 43 14 entries occur?
1983 65 28
1982 115 19 Problem 3: Is there a correlation between the two
1981 146 32 sets of data?
1980 149 41
1979 145 42 Problem 4: If you are a satellite operator, should
1978 87 33 you be concerned about the sunspot cycle?
1977 26 18
1976 12 16 Problem 5: Do some research on the topic of how
1975 14 15 the sun affects Earth. Can you come up with at
1974 32 21 least two ways that the sun could affect a satellite’s
1973 37 14 orbit?
1972 67 12
Problem 6: Can you list some different ways that
1971 66 19
you rely on satellites, or satellite technology, during
1970 107 25
a typical week?
1969 105 26

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 71

Problem 1: On the same graph, plot the number of sunspots (divided by 4) and decayed satellites for
each year. During what years did the peaks in the sunspots occur? Answer: From the graph or the
table, the ‘sunspot maximum’ years were 2000, 1989, 1980 and 1970.

Problem 2: When did the peaks in the satellite re-entries occur? Answer: The major peaks occurred
during the years 2001, 1989, 1979 and 1969.

Problem 3: Is there a correlation between the two sets of data? Answer: A scientist analyzing the two
plots ‘by eye’ would be impressed that there were increases in the satellite decays that occurred within a
year or so of the sunspot maxima years. This is more easy to see if you subtract the overall ‘trend’ line
which is increasing from about 10 satellites in 1970 to 20 satellites in 2004. What remains is a pretty
convincing correlation between sunspots numbers and satellite re-entries.

Problem 4: If you were a satellite operator, should you be concerned about the sunspot cycle? Answer:
Yes, because for LEO satellites there seems to be a good correlation between satellite re-entries near
the times of sunspot maxima.

Problem 5: Do some research on the topic of how the sun affects Earth. Can you come up with at least
two ways that the sun could affect a satellite’s orbit? Answer: The answers may vary, but as a guide,
space physicists generally believe that during sunspot maxima, the sun’s produces more X-rays and
ultraviolet light, which heat Earth’s upper atmosphere. This causes the atmosphere to expand into space.
LEO satellites then experience more friction with the atmosphere, causing their orbits to decay and
eventually causing the satellite to burn-up. There are also more ‘solar storms’, flares and CMEs during
sunspot maximum, than during sunspot minimum. These storms affect satellites in space, causing loss of
data or operation, and can also cause electrical blackouts and other power problems.

Problem 6: Can you list some different ways that you rely on satellites, or satellite technology, during
a typical week? Answer: Satellite TV, ATM banking transactions, credit card purchases, paying for gas
at the gas pump, weather forecasts, GPS positions from your automobile, news reports from overseas,
airline traffic management, tsunami reports in the Pacific Basin, long distance telephone calls, internet
connections to pages overseas.

Space Math [Link]

 Cosmic Rays and Satellite Anomalies 72
Year SSN GCR R Year SSN GCR R
1979 155 80 0.1 1992 94 64 0.0
1980 154 76 0 1993 54 96 0.3
1981 140 56 0.7 1994 29 104 0.9
1982 116 72 0.5 1995 17 112 0.8
1983 66 40 0.8 1996 8 116 0.6
1984 45 80 1.8 1997 21 116 0.3
1985 17 88 2.4 1998 64 120 0.2
1986 13 104 2.3 1999 93 104 0.2
1987 29 112 1.2 2000 119 72 0.3
1988 100 96 1.0 2001 110 64 0.3
1989 157 56 0.7 2002 104 72 0.2
1990 142 24 0.5 2003 63 64 0.1
1991 145 40 0.1

Satellite anomalies are conditions in which a satellite suddenly operates in

a way not consistent with its commanded state, or where data has been
temporarily corrupted. This can result in operator intervention to correct the
problem. It can also cause serious damage to a satellite if the anomaly is too
severe.

The table shown above is a summary of the anomaly logs from a collection
of satellites published by Drs David Wilkinson and Joseph Allen in 1997. Their
survey included 5,033 satellite anomalies that occurred between 1970-1997 and
were reported by the operators of 259 satellites. The table summarizes the
anomalies reported for 33 of these satellites that were located in geosynchronous
orbit during the indicated years. The columns give the average sunspot number
for each year (SSN) and the intensity of the cosmic rays detected by satellite
instruments (GCR). The column indicated by 'R' is the rate of satellite anomalies
for that year in units of anomalies per satellite per year. For example, in 1985 a
single satellite would experience about 2 anomalies during that year.

Problem 1 - Graph the quantity R and A) the Cosmic Ray rate, GCR, defined in
the table, and B) The sunspot number for each year. (Hint: For convenience, plot
100xR on the same scale as sunspot number).

Problem 2 - From your graphs in Problem 3, does the average number of

satellite anomalies each year correlate more closely with the number of sunspots
or the cosmic ray rate?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 72
Problem 1 - Graph the quantity R and A) the Cosmic Ray rate, GCR, defined in the
table, and B) The sunspot number for each year.
Answer: A) Anomalies with sunspot counts:

250

200

150
SSN

100 Rx100

50

0
79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20
Year

B) Anomalies with Cosmic Ray Intensity:

250

200

150 GCR

100 Rx100

50

0
79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

Year

Problem 2 - From your graphs in Problem 3, does the average number of satellite
anomalies each year correlate more closely with the number of sunspots or the cosmic
ray rate?

Answer: The correlation appears to be the strongest with cosmic ray intensity
because the peaks and valleys line up in time a bit better.

Space Math [Link]

Satellite Failures and Outages During Cycle 23 73
Event Date AP* SSN SPE Flare Satellite Condition

1-11-1997 ------ 7 --------- -------- Telstar-401 Satellite failure - Pointing/attitude

4-11-1997 ------ 23 72 -------- Tempo-2 Transponder loss
9-20-1997 46 14 --------- M1.7 Adeos-1 Main computer malfunction - GCR
3-21-2000 ------ 150 --------- M1.8 Hotbird-2 Loss of service for 9 hours
4-9-2000 137 108 55 M3.1 Brazilsat-A2 Loses TWTA
4-28-2000 ------ 124 -------- M7.8 Turksat-1C ESD causes 55-minute service loss
7-15-2000 192 148 24,000 X5.7 GOES-8 Electron sensor problems- power
7-15-2000 192 148 24,000 X5.7 GOES-10 Data corruption
7-15-2000 192 148 24,000 M1.3 ASCA Satellite Failure and reentry
8-27-2000 45 113 -------- -------- Solidaridad-1 Backup SCP fails
10-31-2000 41 111 --------- M4.4 Echostar-4 26/44 transponders lost
11-4-2000 78 130 --------- ------- Insat-2B Service outage
9-6-2001 ------ 141 --------- M2.2 PAS-7 25% power loss
10-23-2001 105 143 24 X1.2 Echostar-6 Solar array string loss announced
12-7-2001 ------ 138 --------- M1.0 Arabsat-3A Loss of transponders
10-25-2003 42 88 --------- -------- Adeos-2 Satellite Failure - Solar array malfunction
10-28-2003 252 165 29,500 X17.2 DRTS Enters Safe Mode
10-28-2003 252 165 29,500 X17.2 FEDSAT Magnetometer data corrupted
10-28-2003 252 165 29,500 X17.2 GOES-8 X-ray sensor disabled
10-30-2003 252 167 29,500 X10.0 INMARSAT CPU outages and attitude errors
10-30-2003 252 167 29,500 X10.0 KODAMA Goes into Safe Mode
10-30-2003 252 167 29,500 X10.0 DMSP F14 One microwave sounder damaged
9-23-2006 ----- 8 --------- -------- Meteosat-8 SEU
12-5-2006 120 20 1,980 X9.0 GOES-13 X-ray imager damaged

The table gives a short list of the publicly-admitted satellite failures and
outages during sunspot cycle 23 (1996-2008).

Problem 1 - The annual sunspot counts for Cycle 23 between 1996 and 2008
(inclusive) were as follows: [9,21,64,93,120,111,104,64,40,30,15,8,3]. How do the
outages compare in time with the sunspot cycle? (Hint: Graph the sunspot cycle
and then indicate on the graph when the outages occurred)

Problem 2 - Assuming that this list is complete, what is the probability that a
satellite outage/failure will occur during a solar proton event?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 73
Problem 1 - The annual sunspot counts for Cycle 23 between 1996 and 2008
(inclusive) were as follows: [9,21,64,93,120,111,104,64,40,30,15,8,3]. How do the
outages compare in time with the sunspot cycle? (Hint: Graph the sunspot cycle and
then indicate on the graph when the outages occurred) Answer: The graph below
shows the sunspot cycle (line) and dots representing the approximate dates of
the outages. The outages can come at any time in the cycle, but are most
common close to the peak of the cycle.

Problem 2 - Assuming that this list is complete, what is the probability that a satellite
outage/failure will occur during a solar proton event?

Answer: The total number of satellite outages is 24, of which 13 were reported during
SPE events so the probability is 100% x 13/24 = 54%.

Space Math [Link]

 Airline Travel and Solar Storm Radiation 74
In 1999, Dr. Sten Odenwald wrote a book called
‘The 23rd Cycle: Learning to live with a stormy star” that
described all of the ways that severe space weather
events, called solar storms, can affect our satellite
technology, our electrical power, and even the health of
astronauts and airline passengers and crew.

Read the accompanying excerpt from his book,

and answer the following questions based on the
information in the excerpt.

Question 1: What topic is this part of the book describing?

Question 2: Describe how a solar storm is involved with this topic?

Question 3: What does the article identify as a possible risk for passengers?

Here is a short list of your radiation exposure at ground level each year, in terms of a unit of
radiation dosage called the milliRem.

Radon gas in your basement ……………….….160 milliRems per year

The ground under your feet……………….……. 60
Nuclear reprocessing plants……………….…… 40
Cosmic rays at sea level…………………..…… 38
Cosmic rays from high altitude city (Denver)….130
Medical imaging…………………………….……. 30
Food and water…………………………….…….. 25

Question 4: If you add up the different exposures in the list above, what is your total dosage
each year if you were living at sea level? Living at high altitudes in Denver?

Question 5: According to the information in the article, how much extra radiation exposure
would a passenger receive in a 10-hour flight at 35,000 feet?

Question 6: How much extra radiation will an airline crew member receive during 900 hours
per year of flying?

Question 7: Do you think the radiation risk from solar storms is a significant one? Present the
evidence that demonstrates the size of the health risk, and the evidence that suggests that the
health risk is minimal.

[Answers provided in the back of the Space Weather Math book]

Space Math [Link]

Excerpt from “The 23rd Cycle” 74

Airline Travel and Solar Storms

Jet airliners fly at altitudes above 35,000 feet which is certainly not enough to get them
into space, but it is more than enough to subject the pilots and stewardesses to some
respectable doses when looked at over the course of their careers, and thousands of flights. A
trip on a jet plane is often taken in a party-like atmosphere with passengers confident that,
barring any unexpected accidents and food problems, they will return to Earth safely and with
no lasting physical affects. But depending on what the Sun is doing, a solar storm can produce
enough radiation to equal a significant fraction of a chest X-ray's dosage even at typical
passenger altitudes of 35,000 feet. Airline pilots and flight attendants can spend over 900
hours in the air every year, which makes them a very big target for cosmic rays and anything
else our Sun feels like adding to this mix. According to a report by the Department of
Transportation, the highest dosages occur on international flights passing close to the poles
where the Earth's magnetic field concentrates the particles responsible for the dosages.
Although the dosage you receive on a single such flight per year is very small, about
one milliRem per hour, frequent fliers that amass over 100,000 miles per year would
accumulate nearly 500 millirems each year. Airline crews who spend 900 hours in the air
would absorb even higher doses, especially on polar routes. For this population, their lifetime
cancer rate would be 23 cancers per 100 people. By comparison, the typical cancer rate for
ground dwellers is about 22 cancers per 100. But the impact does not end with the airline
crew. The federally recommended limit for pregnant women is 500 millirems per year. Even at
these levels, about four extra cases of mental retardation would appear on average per
100,000 women stewardesses if they are exposed between weeks 8 to 15 in the gestation
cycle. This is a time when few women realize they are pregnant, and when critical stages in
neural system formation are taking place in the fetus.
Matthew H. Finucane, air safety and health director of the Association of Flight
Attendants in Washington DC, has claimed that these exposure rates are alarming, and
demands that the FAA to do something about it. One solution is to monitor the cabin radiation
exposure and establish OSHA guidelines for it. If possible, he also wants to set up a system to
warn crews of unusually intense bursts of cosmic radiation, or solar storm activity during a
flight. Meanwhile, the European Aviation Agency is contemplating going even further. They
want to issue standard dosimetry badges to all airline personnel so that their annual
exposures can be rigorously monitored. This is a very provocative step to take, because it
could have a rather chilling effect on airline passengers. It might also raise questions at the
ticket counter that have never been dealt with before, 'Excuse me, can you give me a flight
from Miami to Stockholm that will give me less than one chest X-ray extra dosage?' How will
the traveler process this new information, given our general nervousness over simple
diagnostic X-rays?
Consider this: during September 29, 1989, for example, a powerful X-ray flare caused
passengers on high-flying Concord airliners to receive dosages equal to two chest X-rays per
hour. At the end of the flight, each passenger had silently received hundreds of additional
millirems added to their regular background doses. Still, these occasional dosages the
average person receives while flying, compared to the dosages we might accumulate once we
land at another geographic location, are rather inconsequential over a lifetime. Compared to
the quality of life that we gain in exchange for the minor radiation exposure we risk, most
people will grudgingly admit the transaction is a bargain. Statisticians who work with insurance
companies often think in terms of the number of days lost to your life expectancy from a
variety of causes. On this scale, smoking 20 cigarettes a day costs you 2200 days; being
overweight by 15% costs you 730 days; and an additional 300 millirem per year over the
natural background dose (about 250 milliRem) reduces your life expectancy by 15 days. “
[Dr. Sten Odenwald, ‘The 23rd Cycle’ Columbia University Press, 2000]

Space Math [Link]

 75
Hey! Who Turned Out the Lights?
Astronomers were busily tracking "Active Region 5395" on the Sun when suddenly it
blasted-out a huge cloud of super-hot gas on March 10, 1989. Three days later, and seemingly
unrelated to the solar blow-out, people around the world saw a spectacular, and entertaining,
Northern Lights display. The distant solar storm 93 million miles away had silently set in
motion a chain of events reaching from the Sun's fiery surface to the skies overhead. Most
newspapers that reported this event thought that the spectacular aurora was the most
newsworthy aspect of the storm. Seen as far south as Florida and Cuba, the most people in the
Northern Hemisphere had never seen the Northern Lights dancing in their evening skies. But
this particular explosion of matter and energy did much more than just dazzle and confuse the
casual sky watcher as it painted the heavens with shifting colors and shapes.

At 2:45 AM on March 13, electrical currents created by the impact of this storm found
their way into the electrical circuitry of the Hydro-Quebec Power Authority. Giant capacitors
tried to regulate these currents but failed within a few seconds as automatic protective systems
took them off-line one by one. Suddenly, the entire 9,500 megawatt output from Hydro-
Quebec's La Grande Hydroelectric Complex began to waver. Power swings tripped the supply
lines from the 2,000 megawatt Churchill Falls generation complex, and 18 seconds later, the
entire Quebec power grid collapsed. The cascading of events lasted barely 97 seconds. It was
much too fast for human operators to react, but it was more than enough time for 21,500
megawatts of badly needed electrical power to suddenly disappear from service.

For nine hours, large portions of Quebec were plunged into darkness. A thousand
miles away, even Maryland, Virginia and Pennsylvania were affected as half of the capacitors
in the Allegheny Power System went off-line. In many ways, it was a sanitized calamity. It
was wrapped in a diversion of beautiful colors, and affected a distant population mostly while
they slept. There were no houses torn apart, or streets flooded from powerful hurricanes.
There was no dramatic TV News footage of waves crashing against the beach. There were no
tornadoes cutting a swath of destruction through Kansas trailer parks.

The calamity passed without mention in the major metropolitan newspapers, yet six
million people were affected as they awoke to find no electricity to see them through a cold
Quebec wintry night. Some engineers from the major North American power companies were
not so calm. They worried how this Quebec blackout could easily have escalated into a $6
billion catastrophe affecting most US East Coast cities. All that prevented 50 million people in
the US from joining their Canadian friends in the dark were a few dozen heroic capacitors on
the Allegheny Power Network. (Excerpted from the book "The 23rd Cycle". Author: Dr. Sten
Odenwald )

Problem 1 - If the solar storm took 3 days to travel 150 million kilometers to Earth,
how fast was it traveling in kilometers per hour?

Problem 2 -How much time elapsed between the arrival of the storm at Earth, and
the time when the Quebec power system failed?

Problem 3 - How long did the blackout continue?

Problem 4 - What kinds of severe problems could occur in a typical city during a
blackout in the daytime? In the nighttime?

Space Math [Link]

 75
Answer Key

Problem 1 - 150 million kilometers / ( 3 x 24 hrs) = 2.1 million km/hour

Problem 2 - The electrical event began at 2:45 Am and lasted 97

seconds

Problem 3 - The Quebec Blackout lasted nine hours.

Problem 4 - Students may provide, and defend, a variety of answers to this

question.

Space Math [Link]

 The 1859 Superstorm 76
On August 28, 1859 a massive solar storm caused spectacular aurora seen all
over the globe. It was reported in all the major newspapers, poems were written
about it, and famous artists painted its shapes and forms. It also caused severe
problems with telegraph networks at the time, which lasted for many hours world-
wide. Although scientists gave detailed reports of the changing forms of this
vivid display, many ordinary citizens offered their own impressions of this event
too. Below are two of these descriptions seen from two different locations.

Galveston, Texas: London, England.

August 28 as early as twilight closed, the “At 0:15 AM on August 28th the auroral
northern sky was reddish, and at times light in the north assumed the form of a
lighter than other portions of the heavens. luminous arch, similar to daybreak, and
At 7:30 PM a few streamers showed in the southwest there was an intense
themselves. Soon the whole sky from Ursa glare of red covering a very large extent
Major to the zodiac in the east was occupied of the sky. At 00:20 AM streamers
by the streams or spiral columns that rose appeared; at 00:25 AM the streamers
from the horizon. Spread over the same rose to the zenith and were tinged with
extent was an exquisite roseate tint which crimson at their summits. At 00:45 AM
faded and returned. Stately columns of light frequent coruscations appeared in the
reaching up about 45 degrees above the aurora. At 01:20 AM the arch which had
horizon moved westward. There were partially faded began to reform and the
frequent flashes of lightning along the body of the light was very strong but not
whole extent of the aurora. At 9:00 PM the bright enough to read newspaper print.
whole of the streaking had faded leaving At 1:30 AM the light had begun to fade.
only a sort of twilight over the northern By 2:00 AM the aurora was very
sky.” indistinct.”

A common problem scientists face when organizing observations from different

laces around the world is that observers like to note when things happened by
their local time. Scientists simplify these accounts by converting them into
Universal Time., which is the local time in Greenwich, England also called
Greenwich Mean Time (GMT). To make time calculations easier, UT is
expressed in the 24-hour clock format so that 11:00 AM is written as 11:00, but
times after noon are written, for example, as 1:00 PM is written as 13:00, and
10:00 PM is written as 22:00. Since London is very close to Greenwich, the
times mentioned in the London account above are already in Universal Time
and only need to be converted to the 24-hour format. For Galveston, Texas, its
time is 5 hours behind UT so that to get the equivalent UT for Galveston, first
convert the Galveston times to the 24-hour format, then add 5 hours.

Question 1 - From these two descriptions, can you extract the specific points
of each narrative. What are their similarities?

Question 2 - From the sequences of events in each description, can you

create a timeline for the aurora display that fits the most details?

Question 3 - Why was the aurora observed to reach closer to zenith in

London than in Galveston?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 76

Question 1: From these two descriptions, cam you extract the specific points of each
narrative? What are their similarities? Answer: Here are the main points in each story
with the similarities highlighted.

Story 1:
1. Display began at end of twilight with faint reddish light in north.
2. 7:30 PM (00:00 UT) streamers began to appear
3. Streamers of spiral columns filled eastern sky
4. Faint rose-colored light covered same eastern sky, fading and returning
5. Columns of light reached 45 degrees to zenith, and moved westwards
6. Frequent flashes of light along the whole aurora
7. 9:00 PM (02:00 UT), the aurora faded and left a twilight glow in north.

Story 2:
1. 00:15 AM (00:15 UT) - Luminous arch appeared in northern sky
2. 00:16 AM (00:16 UT) - Intense glare of red in southwest
3. 00:20 AM (00:20 UT) - Streamers appeared
4. 00:25 AM (00:25 UT) - Streamers reached zenith and were crimson at highest points
5. 00:45 AM (00:45 UT) - Frequent coruscations appeared in aurora
6. 01:20 AM (01:20 UT) - Arch begins to fade and reform
7. 01:30 AM (01:30 UT) - Aurora begins to fade.
8. 02:00 AM (02:00 UT) - Aurora very indistinct.

Similarities: Auroral light appeared in northern sky. Streamers appeared soon afterwards.
The streamers expanded in the sky until they were nearly overhead from Galveston, and
overhead in London. The aurora shapes showed activity in the form of flashes and
movement (coruscations). Soon after this active phase, the aurora faded.

Question 2: From the sequences of events in each description, can you create a
common timeline for the aurora display that fits the most details?
Answer: Each student might group the events differently because the eyewitness
accounts are not detailed enough. Because this aurora is seen in the Northern
Hemisphere, it is properly called the Aurora Borealis. Here is one way to organize the
timeline:

“The aurora borealis started with a faint wash of reddish light in the north. A brilliant arch
of light formed. Five minutes later, streamers began to appear which were crimson at
their highest points above the horizon. Then, coruscations (waves) began to appear in the
brightening red glow of the aurora with the streamers filling the entire eastern sky. The
columns of light and streamers began to move westwards, and frequent flashes of light
were seen along the aurora as the luminous arch of began to fade and reform. After an
hour and fifteen minutes, the aurora began to fade away, leaving behind a twilight glow
that persisted for another half-hour.”

Question 3 - Why was the aurora observed to reach closer to zenith in London than in
Galveston? Answer- Because the aurora is a polar phenomenon, and London is at a
higher latitude than Galveston. That means that the aurora will be seen higher in the
northern sky from London than from Galveston.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Storm Timeline - Narrative 77
On July 15, 2001 a solar storm
was tracked from the Sun to Earth by a
number of research satellites and
observatories. This activity lets you
perform time and day arithmetic to figure
out how long various events lasted. This
is a very basic process that scientists go
through to study an astronomical
phenomenon. The image to the left was
taken by the TRACE satellite and shows
the x-ray flare on the Sun.

Photo courtesy SOHO/NASA

The Story: On July 14, 2000, NASA’s TRACE satellite spotted a major X5.7-
class solar flare erupting at 09:41 from Active Region 9077. The flare continued to
release energy until 12:31. At 10:18:27, radio astronomers using the Nancay
radio telescope detected the start of a radio-frequency Type-I noise storm. This
storm strengthened, and at 10:27:27, four moving radio sources appeared.
Meanwhile, the satellite, GOES-10 detected the maximum of the x-ray light from
this flare at 10:23. The SOHO satellite, located 92 million miles from the Sun,
and 1 million miles from Earth, recorded a radiation storm from fast-moving
particles, that caused data corruption at 10:41. The SOHO satellite’s LASCO
imager also detected the launch of a coronal mass ejection (CME) at 10:54. The
CME arrived at the satellite at 14:17 on July 15. Then at 14:37 on July 15, the
CME shock wave arrived at Earth and compressed Earth’s magnetic field. The
IMAGE satellite recorded the brightening of the auroral oval starting at 14:25.
Aurora were at their brightest at 14:58. The aurora expanded to the lowest
latitude at 17:35. By 20:00, Earth’s magnetic field has slightly decreased in
strength in the equatorial regions. By 16:47 on July 16, the IMAGE satellite
recorded the recovery of Earth’s magnetosphere to normal conditions. On
January 12, 2001, the CME was detected by the Voyager I satellite located 63 AU
from the Sun.

Problem 1 - From this information, create a time line of the events mentioned.

Problem 2 – How long did it take for the CME to reach Earth?

Inquiry: What other questions can you explore using this timing information?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 77

Problem 1

July 14,
09:41 - X5.7-class solar flare
10:19 - Radio astronomers detect Type-I radio storm.
10:23 - GOES-10 detected the maximum of the x-ray light from this flare
10:27 - Four moving radio sources appeared on sun.
10:41 - SOHO satellite radiation storm and data corruption.
10:54 - SOHO sees launch of CME
July 15,
14:17 - CME shock wave arrived at Earth
14:25 – IMAGE satellite sees brightening of the auroral oval
14:58 - Aurora at brightest
17:35 – Aurora expand to lowest latitudes
20:00 - Earth’s magnetic field has slightly decreased in strength
July 16
16:47 - IMAGE satellite recorded the recovery of Earth’s magnetosphere

January 12, 2001, CME detected by Voyager I satellite 63 AU from the Sun.

Problem 2 - The CME was launched on July 14 at 10:54 and arrived at Earth on July
15 at 14:17. The elapsed time is 1 full day (24 hours) and the difference between 10:54
and 14:17 which is 14:17 – 10:54 = 13:77 – 10:54 = 3hours and 77-54 = 23 minutes.
The total elapsed time is then 24h + 3h 23m = 27hours 23minutes.

Inquiry – There are many possibilities, for example, how long did it take for the CME
to reach Voyager in days? Hours? What was the speed of the CME as it traveled to
Earth? How long after the flare did SOHO experience a radiation storm?

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Storm Timeline - Tabular 78
The sun is an active star that
produces explosions of matter
and energy. The space
between the planets is filled
with invisible clouds of gas that
sometimes collide with Earth.
Scientists call them Coronal
Mass Ejections. They can travel
at millions of miles per hour
and carry several billion tons of
gas called a plasma. When
‘CMEs’ collide with Earth, they
produce the Northern Lights
and magnetic storms.

In this exercise, you will

examine one of these ‘solar
storm’ events by examining a
timeline of events that it
caused.

The picture to the right was taken by

the SOHO spacecraft showing a
spectacular CME. The white circle is
the size of the sun.

Solar Storm Timeline

Day Time What Happened

1) How much time passed
Tuesday 4:50 PM Gas eruption on Sun
between the solar gas
Thursday 3:36 AM Plasma storm reaches Earth.
Thursday 5:20 AM Storm at maximum intensity. eruption and its detection
Thursday 5:35 AM Auroral power at maximum. near Earth?
Thursday 11:29 AM Aurora power at minimum.
Thursday 2:45 PM Space conditions normal

2) How long after the plasma storm reached Earth did the aurora reach their
maximum power?

3) How long did the storm last near Earth from the time the plasma was detected, to
the time when space conditions returned to normal?

Extra for Experts!

If the Earth is 150 million kilometers from the sun, how fast did the storm travel from
the Sun in kilometers per hour? How long will the trip to Pluto take is Pluto is 40 times
farther away from the sun than Earth?

Space Math [Link]

Answer Key 78

Goal: Students will

Day Time What Happened
interpret a timeline
Tuesday 4:50 PM Gas eruption on Sun
table to extract Thursday 3:36 AM Plasma storm reaches Earth.
information about a Thursday 5:20 AM Storm at maximum intensity.
solar storm using Thursday 5:35 AM Auroral power at maximum.
time addition and Thursday 11:29 AM Aurora power at minimum.
subtraction skills. Thursday 2:45 PM Space conditions normal

1) How much time passed between the solar gas eruption and its detection near
Earth?
Answer: There are various ways to do this problem. You want to subtract the final
time from the initial time so: (Tuesday 4:50 PM ) – (Thursday, 3:36 AM) = (Thursday –
Tuesday) + ( 3:36 AM – 4:50 PM) = 48 hrs – (4:50PM – 3:36AM) = 48h – 13h 14m =
34hours and 46minutes.

2) How long after the plasma storm reached Earth did the aurora reach their
maximum power?
Answer: Storm arrived at 3:36 AM. Aurora at maximum at 5:35AM. Difference in
time is 1 hour and 59 minutes.

3) How long did the storm last near Earth from the time the plasma was detected, to
the time when space conditions returned to normal?
Answer: On Thursday, the storm started at 3:36 AM and ended at 2:45 PM, so the
storm effects at Earth lasted from 03:36 to 14:45 so the difference is 14:45 – 03:36 = 11
hours and (45-36 =) 9 minutes.

Extra for Experts!

If the Earth is 150 million kilometers from the sun, how fast did the storm travel from
the Sun in kilometers per hour? How long will the trip to Pluto take is Pluto is 40 times
farther away from the sun than Earth?
Answer: The answer to Problem 1 is 34hours and 46minutes, which in decimal form
is 34 + (46/60) = 34.8 hours with rounding. The speed is therefore 150 million km/34.8
hours or 4.3 million km/h. The trip to Pluto would take 40 x 34.8 hours = 1,392 hours or
about 58 days. Note, the Space Shuttle is our fastest manned spacecraft and travels
at about 27,000 km/h so it would take about 58 x (4.3 million/27,000) = 9,237 days to
make this trip, which equals 25 years!!!! Of course, the Space Shuttle will be out of
fuel and supplies within a week.

Space Math [Link]

 What causes a solar storm? 79
A solar flare as a violent
explosion of magnetic energy
on the sun. A Coronal Mass
Ejection (CME) is a billion-ton
cloud of gas exploding from
the solar surface. Scientists
can detect these 'solar storms'
and measure how Earth's
environment changes.

What scientists would like to

learn is, how do you predict
what will happen near Earth
by looking at events taking Storms from the Sun sometimes make their way to
place on the Sun, or in space? Earth. Space physicists try to predict what will happen
when these storms arrive, and forecast their arrival.

Statistical data can be used to draw conclusions about cause-and-effect

relationships, even though the details of the process are unknown.

Here's how to do it!

In 2000, 142 solar flares, and 89 Coronal Mass Ejections were spotted on the Sun. 34
flares happened at nearly the same time as CMEs. What percent of CMEs are not
accompanied by solar flares?

89-34
----------- = 0.62
89
Now you try!
or 62 %

1) In the sample problem above, what percentage of solar flares do not

happen during CMEs? A news reporter says that solar flares produce CMEs.
Is this an accurate statement? Explain.

2) A NASA satellite called ACE measures changes in the magnetism of the

gas flowing away from the sun. During 2000 it detects 56 severe magnetic
changes. Another satellite called SOHO detects 55 CMEs of which 29
happen at the same time as the ACE disturbances. The IMAGE satellite
detects aurora in the polar regions of Earth. A total of 63 bright Aurora are
detected during the 56 ACE magnetic 'storms'. There are 31 cases where
aurora are seen at the same time as the magnetic disturbances. a) What
percentage of CMEs cause magnetic disturbances? b) What fraction of
magnetic disturbances lead to major aurora on Earth?

3) Can CME's be reliably used to predict when the next Aurora will occur?
Explain.

Space Math [Link]

 79
Answer Key

Problem 1 – There are a total of 108 solar flares spotted. If 34 happen at the same time
as CMEs directed towards Earth are recorded, then there are 108-34 = 74 solar flares
that happen when CMEs are not detected. This percentage is (74/100)x100% = 68 %,
so 68% of all major solar flares do not produce CMEs. Most solar flares do not produce
CMEs.

Problem 2 – A) Of the 55 CMEs directed towards Earth, 29 happen at the same time as
severe disturbances seen by the ACE satellite, so the percentage is 53%. B) Of the 59
magnetic storms detected by the ACE satellite, 31 produce bright aurora seen by the
IMAGE satellite, so (31/56)x100% = 55% of the magnetic disturbances produce strong
aurora.

Problem 3 – Of the 55 CMEs heading towards Earth, 29 cause magnetic disturbances.

But only 55% of the magnetic disturbances seen by the ACE satellite lead to strong
aurora. SO, out of the CMEs detected, only (29/55) x (55/100) = 0.29 or 29% cause
strong aurora. Most CMEs do not produce disturbances near earth, so the detection of a
CME headed towards earth is not enough to help us reliably predict when strong aurora
will happen.

Space Math [Link]

 Studying Solar Storms with Venn Diagrams 80

Solar storms come in two varieties:

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are clouds of

gas ejected from the sun that can reach Earth
and cause the Aurora Borealis (Northern
Lights). These clouds can travel at over 2
million kilometers/hr, and carry billions of tons
of matter in the form of charged particles
(called a plasma). The picture to the left
shows one of many CMEs witnessed by the
SOHO satellite.

Solar Flares are intense bursts of X-ray

energy that can cause short-wave radio
interference on Earth. The picture to the left
shows a powerful X-ray flare seen by the
SOHO satellite on October 28, 2003.

Between 1996 and 2006, astronomers

detected 11,031 coronal mass ejections
(CMEs), and of these, 593 were directed
towards Earth. These are called ‘Halo CMEs’
because the ejected gas surrounds the sun’s
disk on all sides and looks, like a halo around
the sun. During these same years,
astronomers also witnessed 122 solar flares
that were extremely intense X-flares. Of these
X-flares, 96 happened at the same time as
the Halo CMEs.

Problem 1 - From this statistical information,

fill-in the missing numbers in the circular Venn
Diagram to the left.

Problem 2 – What percentage of X-Flares

also happened at the same time as a Halo
CME?

Problem 3 – What percentage of Halo CMEs

happened at the same time as an X-Flare?

Problem 4 – What percentage of all CMEs

detected between 1996 and 2006 produced
X-Flares?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key: 80

Answer 1 - The total number of

Halo CMEs is 593 and the total
number of X-Flares is 122. The
intersecting area of the two circles in
the Venn Diagram shows the 96
events in which a Halo CME and X-
Flare are BOTH seen together. The
areas of the circles not in the
intersection represent all of the X-
flares that are not spotted with Halo
CMEs (top ring) and all of the Halo
CMEs that are not spotted with X-
Flares (bottom ring).

The missing number in the X-Flare

ring is just 122 – 96 = 26, and for the
Halo CMes we have 593 – 96 =
497.

Answer 2 – The total number of X-Flares is 122 and of these only 96 occurred with
a Halo CME, so the fraction of X-Flares is just 96/122 = 0.79. In terms of
percentage, this represents 79 %.

Answer 3 – The total number of Halo CMEs is 593 and of these only 96 occurred
with an X-Flare, so the fraction of Halo CMEs is just 96/593 = 0.16. In terms of
percentage, this represents 16 %.

Answer 4 – There were 11,031 CMEs detected, and of these only 96 coincided
with X-Flares, so the fraction is 96/11031 = 0.0087. In terms of percentage, this
represents 0.87 % or less than 1 % of all CMEs.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Storms: Odds, Fractions and Percentages 81
One of the most basic activities that scientists perform with their data is to look for correlations
between different kinds of events or measurements in order to see if a pattern exists that could suggest
that some new 'law' of nature might be operating. Many different observations of the Sun and Earth
provide information on some basic phenomena that are frequently observed. The question is whether
these phenomena are related to each other in some way. Can we use the sighting of one phenomenon as
a prediction of whether another kind of phenomenon will happen?
During most of the previous sunspot cycle (January-1996 to June-2006), astronomers detected 11,031
coronal mass ejections, (CME: Top image) of these 1186 were 'halo' events. Half of these were directed
towards Earth.
During the same period of time, 95 solar proton events (streaks in te bottom image were caused by a
single event) were recorded by the GOES satellite network orbiting Earth. Of these SPEs, 61 coincided
with Halo CME events.
Solar flares (middle image) were also recorded by the GOES satellites. During this time period, 21,886
flares were detected, of which 122 were X-class flares. Of the X-class flares, 96 coincided with Halo
CMEs, and 22 X-class flares also coincided with 22 combined SPE+Halo CME events. There were 6 X-
flares associated with SPEs but not associated with Halo CMEs. A total of 28 SPEs were not associated
with either Halo CMEs or with X-class solar flares.

From this statistical information, construct a Venn Diagram to interrelate the numbers in the above
findings based on resent NASA satellite observations, then answer the questions below.

1 - What are the odds that a CME is directed towards Earth?

2 - What fraction of the time does the sun produce X-class flares?

3 - How many X-class flares are not involved with CMEs or

SPEs?

4 - If a satellite spotted both a halo coronal mass ejection and an

X-class solar flare, what is the probability that a solar proton
event will occur?

5 - What percentage of the time are SPEs involved with Halo

CMEs, X-class flares or both?

6 - If a satellite just spots a Halo CME, what are the odds that an
X-class flare or an SPE or both will be observed?

7 - Is it more likely to detect an SPE if a halo CME is observed, or

if an X-class flare is observed?

8 - If you see either a Halo CME or an X-class flare, but not both,
what are the odds you will also see an SPE?

9 - If you observed 100 CMEs, X-class flares and SPEs, how

many times might you expect to see all three phenomena?

Space Math [Link]

 81
Answer Key Venn Diagram Construction.

1. There are 593 Halo CMEs directed

to Earth so 593 = 74 with flares + 39
with SPEs + 22 both SPEs and Flares
+ 458 with no SPEs or Flares..

2. There are 95 SPEs. 95 = 39 with

CMEs + 6 with flares + 22 with both
flares and CMEs + 28 with no flares or
CMEs

3. There are 122 X-class flares. 122 =

74 With CMEs only + 6 with SPEs only
+ 22 both CMEs and SPEs + 20 with
no CMEs or SPEs.

1 - What are the odds that a CME is directed towards Earth? 593/11031 = 0.054 odds = 1 in 19

2 - What fraction of the time does the sun produce X-class flares? 122/21886 = 0.006

3 - How many X-class flares are not involved with CMEs or SPEs? 122 - 74 - 22 - 6 = 20.

4 - If a satellite spotted BOTH a halo coronal mass ejection and an X-class solar flare, what is the
probability that a solar proton event will occur? 22/(74+22) = 0.23

5 - What percentage of the time are SPEs involved with Halo CMEs, X-class flares or both?
100% x (39+22+6 / 95) = 70.1 %

6 - If a satellite just spots a Halo CME, what are the odds that an X-class flare or an SPE or both will
be observed?
39+22+74 / 593 = 0.227 so the odds are 1/0.227 or about 1 in 4.

7 - Is it more likely to detect an SPE if a halo CME is observed, or if an X-class flare is observed?
(6+22)/95 = 0.295 or 1 out of 3 times for X-flares
(39+22)/95 = 0.642 or 2 out of 3 for Halo CMEs
It is more likely to detect an SPE if a Halo CME occurs by 2 to 1.

8 - If you see either a Halo CME or an X-class flare, but not both, what are the odds you will also see
an SPE?
39+6 / 95 = 0.50 so the odds are 1/0.50 or 2 to 1 .

9 - If you observed 100 CMEs, X-class flares and SPEs, how many times might you expect to see all
three phenomena?

100 x 22/(95+122+593) = 3 times

Space Math [Link]

 Do fast CMEs produce intense SPEs? 82
The sun produces two basic kinds of storms; coronal mass
ejections (SOHO satellite: top left) and solar flares (SOHO satellite:
bottom left). These are spectacular events in which billions of tons of
matter are launched into space (CMEs) and vast amounts of
electromagnetic energy are emitted (Flares). A third type of 'space
weather storm' can also occur.
Solar Proton Events (SPEs) are invisible, but intense,
showers of high-energy particles near Earth that can invade satellite
electronics and cause serious problems, even malfunctions and
failures. Some of the most powerful solar flares can emit these
particles, which streak to Earth within an hour of the flare event.
Other SPE events, however, do not seem to arrive at Earth until
several days latter.
Here is a complete list of Solar Proton Events between
1976-2005: [Link]
Here is a complete list of coronal mass ejections 1996 -
2006: [Link]

Between January 1, 1996 and June 30, 2006 there were

11,031 CMEs reported by the SOHO satellite. Of these, 1186 were
halo events. Only half of the halo events are actually directed
towards Earth. The other half are produced on the far side of the
sun and directed away from Earth. During this same period of time,
90 SPE events were recorded by GOES satellite sensors orbiting
Earth. On the next page, is a list of all the SPE events and Halo
CMEs that corresponded to the SPE events. There were 65 SPEs
that coincided with Halo CMEs. Also included is the calculated
speed of the CME event.
From the information above, and the accompanying
table, draw a Venn Diagram to represent the data, then answer
the questions below.

Problem 1: A) What percentage of CMEs detected by the SOHO satellite were identified
as Halo Events? B) What are the odds of seeing a halo Event? C) How many of these Halo
events are directed towards Earth?

Problem 2: A) What fraction of SPEs were identified as coinciding with Halo Events? B)
What are the odds that an SPE occurred with a Halo CME? C) What fraction of all halo
events directed towards earth coincided with SPEs?

Problem 3: A) What percentage of SPEs coinciding with Halo CMEs are more intense
than 900 pFUs? B) What are the odds that, if you detect a 'Halo- SPE', it will be more
intense than 900 pFUs?

Problem 4: A) What percentage of Halo-SPEs have speeds greater than 1000 km/sec? B)
What are the odds that a Halo-SPE in this sample has a speed of > 1000 km/sec?

Problem 5: From what you have calculated as your answers above, what might you
conclude about SPEs and CMEs? How would you use this information as a satellite owner
and operator?

Space Math [Link]

 82
Data Tables showing dates and properties of Halo CMEs and Solar
Proton Events.
CME CME
Speed SPE Speed SPE
Date (km/s) (pfu) Date (km/s) (pfu)

November 4, 1997 785 72 January 8, 2002 1794 91

November 6, 1997 1556 490 January 14, 2002 1492 15
April 20, 1998 1863 1700 February 20, 2002 952 13
May 2, 1998 938 150 March 15, 2002 957 13
May 6, 1998 1099 210 March 18, 2002 989 19
May 3, 1999 1584 14 March 22, 2002 1750 16
June 1, 1999 1772 48 April 17, 2002 1240 24
June 4, 1999 2230 64 April 21, 2002 2393 2520
February 18, 2000 890 13 May 22, 2002 1557 820
April 4, 2000 1188 55 July 15, 2002 1151 234
June 6, 2000 1119 84 August 14, 2002 1309 24
June 10, 2000 1108 46 August 22, 2002 998 36
July 14, 2000 1674 24000 August 24, 2002 1913 317
July 22, 2000 1230 17 September 5, 2002 1748 208
September 12, 2000 1550 320 November 9, 2002 1838 404
October 16, 2000 1336 15 May 28, 2003 1366 121
October 25, 2000 770 15 May 31, 2003 1835 27
November 8, 2000 1738 14800 June 17, 2003 1813 24
November 24, 2000 1289 940 October 26, 2003 1537 466
January 28, 2001 916 49 November 4, 2003 2657 353
March 29, 2001 942 35 November 21, 2003 494 13
April 2, 2001 2505 1100 April 11, 2004 1645 35
April 10, 2001 2411 355 July 25, 2004 1333 2086
April 15, 2001 1199 951 September 12, 2004 1328 273
April 18, 2001 2465 321 November 7, 2004 1759 495
April 26, 2001 1006 57 January 15, 2005 2861 5040
August 9, 2001 479 17 July 13, 2005 1423 134
September 15, 2001 478 11 July 27, 2005 1787 41
September 24, 2001 2402 12900 August 22, 2005 2378 330
October 1, 2001 1405 2360
October 19, 2001 901 11 Note: Solar Proton Event strengths are measured
October 22, 2001 618 24 in the number of particles that pass through a
square centimeter every second, and is given in
November 4, 2001 1810 31700
units called Particle Flux Units or PFUs.
November 17, 2001 1379 34
November 22, 2001 1437 18900
December 26, 2001 1446 779

Space Math [Link]

 82

Problem 1: Answers: A) 1186/11031 = 11% B) 1 / 0.11 = 1 chance in 9 C)

From the text, only half are directed to Earth so 1186/2 = 593 Halos.

Problem 2: Answers: A) 65 table entries / 90 SPEs = 72% B) 1 / 0.72 = 1

chance in 1.38 or about 2 chances in 3 C) 65 in Table / (528+65) Halos = 11%

Problem 3: Answers: A) From the table, there are 12 SPEs out of 65 in this list
or 12/65 = 18 % B) 1 / 0.18 = 1 chance in 5.

Problem 4: Answers: A) There are 50 out of 65 or 50/65 = 77% B) 1 / 0.77 =

1 chance in 1.3 or 2 chances in 3.

Problem 5: From what you have calculated as your answers above, what might
you conclude about Solar Proton Events and CMEs? How would you use this
information as a satellite owner and operator?

A reasonable student response is that Halo CMEs occur only 11% of the time, and
of the ones directed towards Earth only 1 out of 9 coincide with SPEs. However, in
terms of SPEs, virtually all of the SPEs coincide with Halo events ( 2 out of 3) and
SPEs are especially common when the CME speed is above 1000 km/sec. As a
satellite owner, I would be particularly concerned if scientists told me there was a
halo CME headed towards Earth AND that it had a speed of over 1000 km/sec.
Because the odds are now 2 chances out of 3 that an SPE might occur that could
seriously affect my satellite. I would try to put my satellite in a safe condition to
protect it from showers of high-energy particles that might damage it.

Space Math [Link]

 The January 20, 2005 solar proton event (SPE) was by some
measures the biggest since 1989. It was particularly rich in high-speed
protons packing more than 100 million electron volts (100 MeV) of
energy. Such protons can burrow through 11 centimeters of water. A
thin-skinned spacesuit would have offered little resistance, and the
astronaut would have been radiation poisoned, and perhaps even killed.

The above image was taken by the SOHO satellite during this
proton storm. The instrument, called LASCO, was taking an image of the
sun in order for scientists to study the coronal mass ejection (CME)
taking place. Each of the individual white spots in the image is a track left
by a high-speed proton as it struck the imaging CCD (similar to the 'chip'
in your digital camera). As you see, the proton tracks corrupted the data
being taken.

The high-speed particles from these proton storms also penetrate

satellites and can cause data to be lost, or even false commands to be
given by on-board computers, causing many problems for satellite
operators.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Storms: Sequences and Probabilities 83
The Sun is an active star, which
produces solar flares (F) and explosions of
gas (C). Astronomers keep watch for these
events because they can harm satellites and
astronauts in space. Predicting when the
next storm will happen is not easy to do.
The problems below are solved by writing
out all of the possibilities, then calculating
the probability of the particular outcome!

Solar flare photo courtesy TRACE/NASA

1 – During a week of observing the sun, astronomers detected 1 solar flare (F). What
was the probability (as a fraction) that it happened on Wednesday?

2 – During the same week, two gas clouds were ejected (C), but not on the same days.
What is the probability (as a fraction) that a gas cloud was ejected on Wednesday?

3 – Suppose that the flares and the gas clouds had nothing to do with each other, and
that they occurred randomly. What is the probability (as a fraction) that both a flare and a
gas cloud were spotted on Wednesday? (Astronomers would say that these phenomena
are uncorrelated because the occurrence of one does not mean that the other is likely to
happen too).

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 83

1 – Answer: There are only 7 possibilities:

FXXXXXX XXXFXXX XXXXXXF
XFXXXXX XXXXFXX
XXF XXXX XXXXXFX
So the probability for any one day is 1/7.

2 – Here we have to distribute 2 storms among 7 days. For advanced students, there
are 7! / (2! 5!) = 7 x 6 / 2 = 21 possibilities which the students will work out by hand:
CCXXXXX XCCXXXX XXCCXXX XXXCCXX
CXCXXXX XCXCXXX XXCXCXX XXXCXCX
CXXCXXX XCXXCXX XXCXXCX XXXCXXC
CXXXCXX XCXXXCX XXCXXXC XXXXCCX
CXXXXCX XCXXXXC XXXXCXC
CXXXXXC XXXXXCC

There are 6 possibilities (in red) for a cloud appearing on Wednesday (Day 3), so the
probability is 6/21.

3 – We have already tabulated the possibilities for each flare and gas cloud to appear
separately on a given day. Because these events are independent of each other, the
probability that on a given day you will spot a flare and a gas cloud is just 1/7 x 6/21 or
6/147. This is because for every possibility for a flare from the answer to Problem 1,
there is one possibility for the gas clouds.

There are a total of 7 x 21 = 147 outcomes for both events taken together. Because
there are a total of 1 x 6 outcomes where there is a flare and a cloud on a particular
day, the fraction becomes (1 x 6)/147 = 6/147.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Storms: Probabilities for multiple events 84

The Sun is an active star that

produces solar flares (F) and explosions of
gas (C). Astronomers keep watch for these
events because they can harm satellites and
astronauts in space. Predicting when the
next storm will happen is not easy to do.
The problems below are solved by writing
out all of the possibilities, then calculating
the probability of the particular outcome!

Photo of a coronal mass ejection courtesy

SOHO/NASA.

Problem 1 – During a particularly intense week for solar storms, three flares were
spotted along with two massive gas cloud explosions. Work out all of the possible ways
that 3 Fs and 2 Cs can be separately distributed among 7 days. Examples include C C
X X X X X and F F F X X X X.

What is the probability (as a fraction) that none of these events occurred on Friday?

Inquiry: Does the probability matter if we select any one of the other 6 days?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 84
1 – Here we have to distribute 2 cloud events (C) among 7 days. For advanced
students, there are 7! / (2! 5!) = 7 x 6 / 2 = 21 possibilities which the students will
work out by hand, in this case starting with Monday as the first place in the sequence:

CCXXXXX XCCXXXX XXCCXXX XXXCCXX

CXCXXXX XCXCXXX XXCXCXX XXXCXCX
CXXCXXX XCXXCXX XXCXXCX XXXCXXC
CXXXCXX XCXXXCX XXCXXXC XXXXCCX
CXXXXCX XCXXXXC XXXXCXC
CXXXXXC XXXXXCC

Next, we have to distribute 3 flares (F) among 7 days. There will be 7! / (3! 4!) = (7 x 6
x 5) /(3 x 2) = 35 possibilities as follows:

FFFXXXX FXXFFXX XFFFXXX XXFFFXX

FFXFXXX FXXFXFX XFFXFXX XXFFXFX
FFXXFXX FXXFXXF XFFXXFX XXFFXXF
FFXXXFX FXXXFFX XFFXXXF XXFXFFX
FFXXXXF FXXXFXF XFXFFXX XXFXFXF
FXFFXXX FXXXXFF XFXFXFX XXFXXFF
FXFXFXX XFXFXXF XXXFFFX
FXFXXFX XFXXFFX XXXFFXF
FXFXXXF XFXXFXF XXXFXFF
XFXXXFF XXXXFFF

For each cloud event (21 possibilities) there are 35 possibilities for flare events, so the
total number of arrangements is 21 x 35 = 735. Friday is the fifth location in each
sequence.

The number of sequences of cloud events in which no cloud appears in the fifth slot is
highlighted in red. There are 15 possibilities. For the solar flares, there are 20
possibilities, so because these are independent, the total number is 15 x 20 = 300. So,
the probability that there will be no solar storms on Friday is 300/735

Inquiry – Students may redo the calculation for any of the other days. The resulting
probability should always be 300/735. This is because the events are not correlated
with any particular day, so the day choice is random as well.

Space Math [Link]

 Space Weather Indicators 85
Sunspots are a sign that the
Sun is in a stormy state.
Sometimes these storms can
affect Earth and cause all
kinds of problems such as
satellite damage and
electrical power outages. They
can even harm astronauts
working in space.

Scientists use many different

kinds of measurements to
track this stormy activity. In this
exercise, you will learn how to
use some of them!

This sunspot is as big as Earth!

Looking at sequences of numbers can help you identify unusual

events that depart from the average trend.

Here's how to do it!

An astronomer counts sunspots for 5 days and gets the following sequence:
149, 136, 198, 152, 145

Maximum = 198
Minimum = 136
Mean = (149+136+198+152+145)/5 = 156
Median = 149

Find the maximum, minimum, mean and median of each sequence.

1) Number of Sunspots

241 240 243 229 268 335 342 401 325 290 276 232 214

2) Number of Solar Flares

5 7 13 8 9 14 9 13 16 6 14 15

3) Aurora Power (measured in billions of watts!)

171.2 122.2 219.4 107.9 86.2 112.4 76.2 39.8 153.9

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 85

Problem 1 - Maximum= 401, minimum=214;

Ordered = 214, 229 ,232 ,240, 241, 243 ,268, 276, 290, 325, 335 ,342, 401
Median = 268
Mean = 264

Problem 2 - Maximum= 16, minimum= 5

Ordered = 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9, 13, 13, 14, 14, 15
Median = 9
Mean = 10

Problem 3 - Maximum = 219.4; minimum=39.8

Ordered = 39.8 ,76.2 ,86.2 ,107.9 ,112.4, 122.2, 153.9, 171.2, 219.4
Median = 112.4
Mean = 121.0

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Flares and the Sunspot Cycle 86
Year C- M- X- Solar flares are the most dramatic
class class class explosions on the sun, which have been
1996 76 4 1 known for some time. An average-sized
flare can release more energy in a few
1997 288 20 3
hours than thousands of hydrogen bombs
1998 1198 96 14 exploding all at once.
1999 1860 170 4
2000 2265 215 17 Solar flares do not happen randomly,
2001 3107 311 20 but like many other solar phenomena follow
the rise and fall of the sunspot cycle.
2002 2319 219 12
2003 1315 160 20 The table to the left is a tally of the
2004 912 122 12 number of C, M and X-class flares identified
2005 578 103 18 during each year of the previous sunspot
2006 150 10 4 cycle.
2007 73 10 0
2008 8 1 0

Problem 1 - During the entire sunspot cycle, how many solar flares occur?

Problem 2 - What percentage of solar flares during an entire sunspot cycle are A)
C-class? B) M-class? C) X-class?

Problem 3 - During a single week, how many flares of each type would the sun
produce during A) Sunspot maximum in the year 2001? B) Sunspot minimum
during the year 1996?

Problem 4 - During sunspot maximum, what is the average time in hours

between flares for, A) C-class? B)M-class? and C) X-class? (Hint: 1 year =
8,760 hours)

Problem 5 - Do as many flares occur in the time before sunspot maximum (1996-
2000) as after sunspot maximum (2002-2008) for A) C-class? B) M-class? C) X-
class?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 86
Problem 1 - During the entire sunspot cycle, how many solar flares occur?
Answer: The sum of all the flares in the table is 15,715.

Problem 2 - What percentage of solar flares during an entire sunspot cycle are A) C-
class? B) M-class? C) X-class?
Answer: A) C-class = 100% x (14149/15715) = 90%
B) M-class = 100% x (1441/15715) = 9%
C) X-class = 100% x (14149/15715) = 1%

Problem 3 - During a single week, how many flares of each type would the sun
produce during A) Sunspot maximum in the year 2001? B) Sunspot minimum during
the year 1996?
Answer: A) C-type = 3107/52 = 60
M-type = 311/52 = 6
X-type = 20/52 = 0.4

B) C-type = 76/52 = 1.4

M-type = 4/52 = 0.08
X-type = 1/52 = 0.02

Problem 4 - During sunspot maximum, what is the average time in hours between
flares for, A) C-class? B)M-class? and C) X-class? (Hint: 1 year = 8,760 hours)
Answer: C-class = 1 year/3107 flares x (8760 hours/year) = 2.8 hours/flare.
M-class = 1 year/311 flares x (8760 hours/year) = 28 hours/flare. ( 1 day)
X-class = 1 year/20 flares x (8760 hours/year) = 438 hours/flare. (18 days)

Problem 5 - Do as many flares occur in the time before sunspot maximum (1996-
2000) as after sunspot maximum (2002-2008) for A) C-class? B) M-class? C) X-class?

Answer: Between 1996-2000 there were 6,231 and between 2001-2008 there were
6,046 so although the numbers are nearly the same, there were slightly fewer flares
after sunspot maximum.
1/2
Note: In statistics, the sampling error is n = (6231) = 79, so the range of random
variation for 1996-2000 is between 6231+79 and 6231-79 or [6151, 6310] for 2002-
1/2
2008 we have (6046) = 78, so the range of random variation for 2002-2008 is
between 6046+78 and 6046-78 or [5968, 6124]. Because of this sampling uncertainty,
the counts between each side of solar maximum are statistically similar. They do not
differ by more than 3-sigma (3x78 = 234) which means they are the same to better
than 98% certainty.

Space Math [Link]

 Fastest Halo CME Speeds by Year and Month 87
Table of Fast CMEs between 1996 - 2006
Year Month Speed Year Month Speed Year Month Speed Year Month Speed
2004 11 3387 2002 7 2047 1999 6 1772 2001 10 1537
2005 1 2861 2003 11 2036 2004 11 1759 2005 7 1527
2003 11 2657 2003 10 2029 2002 3 1750 2003 11 1523
2000 5 2604 2005 1 2020 1998 12 1749 2001 1 1507
2003 11 2598 2003 11 2008 2002 9 1748 2001 12 1506
2005 1 2547 2004 11 2000 2001 6 1701 1998 11 1505
2005 7 2528 1998 3 1992 2002 10 1694 1999 4 1495
2000 11 2519 2005 7 1968 1999 5 1691 2002 1 1492
2001 4 2465 2002 7 1941 2005 5 1689 2003 10 1484
2003 10 2459 2005 8 1929 2005 6 1679 2001 4 1475
2001 4 2411 2005 9 1922 2000 7 1674 2005 7 1458
2001 9 2402 2002 8 1913 2005 9 1672 2004 7 1444
2002 4 2393 2005 9 1893 2003 11 1661 2001 11 1443
2005 8 2378 2005 9 1866 2005 7 1660 2001 11 1437
2005 9 2326 2002 11 1838 2002 7 1636 2001 8 1433
2002 7 2285 2003 5 1835 1998 4 1618 2002 3 1429
2005 9 2257 2003 6 1813 2005 8 1600 2005 7 1423
2003 11 2237 2001 11 1810 2000 5 1594 2001 6 1407
2001 12 2216 2005 8 1808 2002 8 1585 2001 10 1405
2002 7 2191 1998 6 1802 1999 5 1584 1998 3 1397
2002 10 2115 1998 11 1798 2001 8 1575 2001 4 1390
2005 7 2115 2002 1 1794 2002 5 1557 1999 7 1389
2005 1 2094 2005 7 1787 1997 11 1556 1998 4 1385
2003 6 2053 2000 5 1781 2000 9 1550 2005 9 1384
2005 1 2049 2001 12 1773 2005 7 1540 2005 2 1380

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are billion-ton clouds of gas that can leave the
solar surface at many different speeds as shown in the table above. This table gives the
speeds of the 100-fastest CMEs seen during the last sunspot cycle between 1996-2008.

Problem 1 - Create a histogram of the CME speeds using bins that are 100 km/sec
wide over the domain of speeds [1300, 2600].

Problem 2 - What is the: A) Average speed? B) Median speed? C) Mode speed?

Problem 3 - If the transit time to Earth is 42 hours for a CME traveling at a speed of
1,000 km/s, to the nearest hour, what is A) the range of speeds spanned by this
complete sample of 100 CMES? B) The average transit time of a CME?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 87

16

14

12

10
Number

0
1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600
Speed (km/s)

Problem 1 - Create a histogram of the CME speeds using bins that are 100 km/sec
wide over the domain of speeds [1300, 2600]. Answer: See above.

Problem 2 - What is the: A) Average speed? B) Median speed? C) Mode speed?

Answer: A) The average speed is found by adding all 100 speeds and dividing by 100.
The answer is <V> = 1,851 km/sec. B) The median speed is the speed for which half
of the CME speeds are below and half are above the value. The table is ranked from
fastest to slowest so CME #50 will be close to the median speed for this 'even'
numbered set. Vm = 1,773 km/sec. C) The mode speed is the most frequently
occurring speed in the sample which is V = 2,115 km/sec.

Problem 3 - If the transit time to Earth is 42 hours for a CME traveling at a speed of
1,000 km/s, to the nearest hour, what is A) the range of speeds spanned by this
complete sample of 100 CMES? B) The average transit time of a CME?

Answer: A) The range is from 1,380 to 3,387 km/sec B) so by scaling we get 42 x

(1000/1380) = 30 hours for the slowest and 42 x (1000/3387) = 12 hours. the average
transit time is T = 42 x (1000/1851) = 23 hours.

Space Math [Link]

 How often do solar storms occur? 88
Table of Event Frequencies for Cycle 23
Flares (Class) SPEs (pfu) Halo
C M X 10 100 1000 10000 CMEs
1996 76 4 1 1 1 0 0 1
1997 288 20 3 1 1 0 0 5
1998 1198 96 14 5 2 1 0 29
1999 1860 170 4 8 2 2 1 42
2000 2265 215 17 6 3 0 1 48
2001 3107 311 20 8 5 2 1 41
2002 2319 219 12 7 3 2 0 30
2003 1315 160 20 2 1 1 1 21
2004 912 122 12 3 1 1 1 87
2005 578 103 18 2 1 3 0 110
2006 150 10 4 0 1 1 0 33
2007 73 10 0 0 0 0 0 11
2008 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 12

The term 'solar storm' can refer to many different kinds of energetic phenomena
including solar flares, Solar Proton Events (SPEs) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
Solar flares are the most well-known, and are classified according to their x-ray power
as C, M or X, with X being the most powerful. SPEs are classed according to the
number of protons that pass through a surface area per second at Earth's orbit in units
of particle Flux Units (pFUs). SPEs with 10,000 pFUs or higher can be deadly to
astronauts not properly shielded. The table above gives the number of flares detected
during each year of the previous solar activity cycle

Problem 1 - During sunspot maximum in 2001, what was the average number of hours
you would have to wait between A) each of the three classes of X-ray flares? Each of
the four classes of SPEs? And C) Each of the Halo CMEs? (Hint: There are 8,760 hours
in 1 year)

Problem 2 - Assuming that Halo CMEs and X-class flares occur randomly over the
year, what is the probability that during 2001 you will see both a Halo CME and an X-
class flare on the same day?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 88

Problem 1 - During sunspot maximum in 2001, what was the average number of hours
you would have to wait between A) each of the three classes of X-ray flares? Each of
the four classes of SPEs? and C) Each of the Halo CMEs? (Hint: There are 8,760
hours in 1 year)

Answer: From the table we have

Flares (Class) SPEs (pfu) Halo
C M X 10 100 1000 10000 CMEs
2001 3107 311 20 8 5 2 1 41

A) C-class flares: 8760 hours /3107 flares = 2.8 hours.

M-class flares: 8760 / 311 = 28 hours = 1 day
X-class flares: 8760 / 20 = 438 hours = 18 days

B) 10 pFU: 8760/8 = 1,095 hours = 1.5 months

100 pFU: 8760/5 = 1,752 hours = 2.5 months
1000 pFU: 8760/2 = 4,380 hours = 6 months
10000 pFU: 8760/1 = 8,760 hours = 1 year

C) Halo CME: 8760 / 41 = 214 hours or 9 days.

Problem 2 - Assuming that Halo CMEs and X-class flares occur randomly over the
year, what is the probability that during 2001 you will see both a Halo CME and an X-
class flare on the same day?

Answer: During this year there were 20 X-class flares and 41 Halo CMEs. Each day
the probability is 20/365 = 1/18 that an X-class flare will occur, and 41/365 = 1/9 that a
Halo CME will occur. The probability is then P(Halo) x P(Xflare) = 1/18 x 1/9 =
P(both) = 1/162 = 0.006 that both will happen on the same day.

Space Math [Link]

 Halo CMEs and Radio Bursts 89
When energy is explosively
released on the sun, powerful bursts of
radio waves can be emitted. These travel
towards Earth and can be detected with
radio telescopes and other radio-energy
receivers.
Although solar flares and coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) emit radio bursts
at some point in their evolution, these
radio signals can be invaluable in
determining whether hazardous clouds of
plasma are moving towards Earth. This is
because CMEs can be seen from Earth
even though they are on the far side of
Solar radio burst detected by the the sun and not a hazard. Fortunately,
Radio Jove network on 6/12/2003. radio bursts can be detected from CMEs
launched from the front side of the sun.

A tally of data was assembled for the 23rd sunspot cycle that included
days during which solar flares, Halo CMEs and radio bursts occurred. Because
there were a number of days for which satellites and ground radio telescopes
were not reporting data, only those days for which data was available for all three
phenomena were included in the statistical sample.

During the 23rd sunspot cycle (1996-2008) a total of 465 Halo-type CMEs
were observed by the SOHO satellite. Of these, 153 were associated with Type-II
or Type IV radio bursts. The total number of detected radio bursts during this time
was 403. During this same period, a number of X and M-class solar flares were
detected. 107 coincided with Halo CMEs that also coincided with radio bursts,
leaving 46 Halo events with radio bursts that did not coincide with solar flares.
Also, 70 Halo events coincided with solar flares but not radio bursts. Among the
remaining solar flares, 107 coincided with radio bursts but no Halo CMEs, and
there were 143 radio bursts that did not coincide with either solar flares or Halo
CMEs. There were 380 flares not associated with Halo CMEs or radio bursts.

Problem 1 - If Halo CMEs = H, radio bursts = R, and solar flares = F, create a

Venn Diagram that presents the numerical data for the numbers of events in each
logical partition.

Problem 2 - Of the CMEs that coincide with X and M-class solar flares A) what
percentage produce radio bursts? B) What percentage do not produce radio
bursts?

Problem 3 - If an astronomer detected a radio burst and a flare, what is the

probability that no Halo CME is involved?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 89
Problem 1 - If Halo CMEs = H, radio bursts = R, and solar flares = F, create a Venn
Diagram that presents the numerical data for the numbers of events in each logical
partition.

Problem 2 - Of the CMEs that coincide with X and M-class solar flares A) what
percentage produce radio bursts? B) What percentage do not produce radio bursts?
Answer: There are 107 + 70 = 177 CMEs that also coincide with solar flares of class
X or M.

A) CME/flare and Radio bursts = 100% x (107/177) or 60%

B) CME/flare but not Radio bursts = 100% x (70/177) or 40%

Problem 3 - If an astronomer detected a radio burst and a flare, what is the probability
that no Halo CME is involved?

Answer: There are 107 cases where a radio burst + flare occur, and 107 cases where
a radio burst+flare+Halo CME occur for a total of 214 flare events. The probability is
then 100% x (107 no Halo/ 214) = 50%

Radio burst archives:

Learmonth Observatory [Link]

Zurich Archive of Radio Burst Spectrograms

[Link]

Greenbank Solar Radio Burst Spectrometer

[Link]

NASA WAVES Satellite

[Link]

Space Math [Link]

 An Historical Study of Intense Solar Proton Events 90

21
18
Fluence (Gp/cc)

15
12
9
6
3
0
1562 1612 1662 1712 1762 1812 1862 1912 1962
Year

In 1976, Dr. Robert McCracken at the University of Aldlaide studied ice

cores from Greenland and Antarctica and discovered chemical anomalies in the
atmospheric composition of the element beryllium. He later correlated these
'spikes' in the normal abundance with solar proton events. The above graph
shows the intensities of these SPEs between 1562 - 2003. The SPE intensity,
called the fluence, is given in terms of the total number of particles it delivered to
one cubic centimeter (cc) of the atmosphere in units of 1 billion particles/cc (1
Gp/cc) .

Problem 1 - Create a histogram by counting the number of SPEs with intensities

in the following bin intervals: [0.1,3.0]; [3.1,6.0]; [6.1,9.0]; [9.1,12.0]; [12.1,15.0];
[15.1,21.0]

Problem 2 - A solar physicist detects an SPE. What is the probability, in percent,

that it will be more intense than 6 Gp/cc?

Problem 3 - About how strong were the 5 most intense SPEs detected after
1962.

Problem 4 - The radiation exposure in milliRems for a shielded astronaut inside a

space craft can be estimated using the conversion that 1 Gp/cc = 10 milliRem.
About how many milliRems of exposure would have occurred for each of the 5
SPEs since 1965?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 90
Problem 1 - Create a histogram by counting the number of SPEs with intensities in the
following bin intervals: [0.1,3.0]; [3.1,6.0]; [6.1,9.0]; [9.1,12.0]; [12.1,15.0]; [15.1,21.0]
Answer: Depending on how well the graph can be read, students should get numbers
that are close to the following exact count:
[0.1,3.0]; N=32
[3.1,6.0]; N = 33
[6.1,9.0]; N = 10
[9.1,12.0]; N = 1
[12.1,15.0]; N= 0
[15.1,21.0]; N = 1

35

30

25
Number

20

15

10

0
3 6 9 12 15 18 21

Intensity (pFU)

Problem 2 - A solar physicist detects an SPE. What is the probability, in percent, that
it will be more intense than 6 Gp/cc?
Answer: The total number of SPEs in the data is 32+33+10+1+1 = 77. The number
that are stronger than 6 Gp/cc is 12, so the probability is 100% x (12/77) = 16%

Problem 3 - About how strong were the 5 most intense SPEs detected after 1962.
Answer: 18.8 (1859); 11.1 (1895); 9.3 (1851); 7.7 (1894) and 7.4 (1719)

Problem 4 - The radiation exposure in milliRems for a shielded astronaut inside a

space craft can be estimated using the conversion that 1 Gp/cc = 10 milliRem. About
how many milliRems of exposure would have occurred for each of the 5 SPEs since
1965?

Answer: From the graph, the SPEs had intensities of about 5, 4, 4, 3, 3 Gp/cc so the
radiation levels would have been 50, 40, 40, 30 and 30 milliRem during the several
hours of the storm. Note the natural ground level rate is 350 milliRem / year.

Space Math [Link]

 SPEs and the Sunspot Cycle 91

Yr 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
1 5 5 5 4 4
2 2 4 3
3
4 6 19 2 4
5 3 2 4
6 8 2 2 3
7 3 11 2 5 9
8 3 8 3 3
9 4 6 9 7 4 3 3 5
10 5 4 3
11 2
12
13 3
Note: The columns indicate the corresponding sunspot cycles from 1 to 23. The calendar year for
'Year 1' for each cycle is as follows:1755, 1765, 1775, 1785, 1798, 1810, 1823, 1833, 1843, 1856,
1867, 1878, 1889, 1901, 1913, 1923, 1933, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1975, 1986, 1996

The table above gives the intensity of Solar Proton Events (SPEs) detected
since 1751 (Cycle 1) through the end of the last sunspot cycle in 2008 (Cycle 23).
An SPE is an intense burst of high-energy protons from the sun that reach Earth
traveling at nearly the speed of light. The data for Cycle 1 - 22 were obtained by
Dr. Robert McCracken in a study of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica,
which recorded the atmospheric changes caused by the most intense SPEs
during each year.
Although the ice core data was assembled chronologically as a continuous
record of events since 1562, the above table folds the intensity of SPEs each year
by the year of the sunspot cycle in which the SPE was recorded. The calendar
year for 'Year 1' in the far-left column is given in the legend for the table.

Problem 1 - Create a histogram that tallies the number of SPEs occurring in each
of the 13 years of the sunspot cycle. What is the total number of SPEs recorded for
the 23 sunspot cycles?

Problem 2 - For each year in the average sunspot cycle, what is the percentage of
SPEs that one expects to find?

Problem 3 - Which year of the sunspot cycle has the greatest historical
percentage of SPEs?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 91
Problem 1 - Create a histogram that tallies the number of SPEs occurring in each of
the 13 years of the sunspot cycle. What is the total number of SPEs recorded for the
23 sunspot cycles?

6
Number

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Year

Answer: Total = 43

Problem 2 - For each year in the average sunspot cycle, what is the percentage of
SPEs that one expects to find?

Answer:
Year Number Percent
1 5 12
2 3 7
3 0 0
4 4 9
5 3 7
6 4 9
7 5 12
8 5 12
9 8 19
10 4 9
11 1 2
12 0 0
13 1 2
Problem 3 - Which year of the sunspot cycle has the greatest historical percentage of
SPEs?
Answer: Year 9.

Space Math [Link]

 Cosmic Rays and the Sunspot Cycle 92

Year SSN Flux Year SSN Flux Year SSN Flux

1950 84 93 1970 105 86 1990 142 76
1951 69 94 1971 67 88 1991 146 80
1952 31 95 1972 69 98 1992 94 86
1953 14 96 1973 38 96 1993 55 94
1954 4 98 1974 34 100 1994 30 96
1955 38 100 1975 15 97 1995 18 98
1956 142 98 1976 13 99 1996 9 99
1957 190 94 1977 27 100 1997 21 99
1958 185 80 1978 93 96 1998 64 100
1959 159 84 1979 155 90 1999 93 96
1960 112 82 1980 155 89 2000 120 88
1961 54 84 1981 140 84 2001 111 86
1962 38 88 1982 116 88 2002 104 88
1963 28 92 1983 67 80 2003 64 86
1964 10 96 1984 46 90 2004 40 86
1965 15 98 1985 18 92 2005 30 94
1966 47 98 1986 13 96 2006 15 96
1967 94 93 1987 29 98 2007 8 98
1968 106 90 1988 100 94 2008 3 100
1969 106 88 1989 158 84

Cosmic rays are high-energy particles that enter our solar system from
distant sources in the Milky Way galaxy and beyond. These particles are a
radiation hazard for satellite electronics and for astronauts exposed to them for
prolonged periods of time. The table above presents the intensity of the cosmic
rays measured by instruments located in Climax, Colorado during the period from
1950 to 2008, along with the annual sunspot counts.

Problem 1 - On the same graph, plot the sunspot numbers and the cosmic ray
intensities.

Problem 2 - What do you notice about the relationship between cosmic rays and
sunspots?

Problem 3 - If you were planning a 1-year trip to Mars, what time would you
make your journey relative to the sunspot cycle?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 92
Problem 1 - On the same graph, plot the sunspot numbers and the cosmic ray
intensities. Answer: See below.

200
180
Nu mb er/In ten sity

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
50

53

56

59

62

65

68

71

74

77

80

83

86

89

92

95

98

01

04

07
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20
Year

Problem 2 - What do you notice about the relationship between cosmic rays and
sunspots?
Answer: When the sunspot number is highest, the cosmic ray intensity is lowest.
The sunspot number peaks (maxima) match up with the cosmic ray valleys
(minima).

Problem 3 - If you were planning a 1-year trip to Mars, what time would you make your
journey relative to the sunspot cycle?
Answer: You would probably want to make the journey during sunspot maximum
conditions when the cosmic ray intensity is lowest. This will reduce your total
accumulated radiation dosage during the 1-year trip by 20%.

Space Math [Link]

Cosmic Ray Variations in the Inner Solar System 93

Energetic iron nuclei counted by the Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer on

NASA's ACE spacecraft reveal that, during the period from 2008-2010, cosmic
ray levels have jumped 19% above the previous Space Age high.
Cosmic rays are charged, high-energy particles that can be affected by
magnetic fields. During times when the sun is most active, called sunspot
maximum, the solar magnetic field carried by the solar wind is more intense than
during sunspot minimum. In the region of the solar system interior to the asteroid
belt, this effect causes cosmic ray intensities to be lowest during sunspot
maximum, and highest during sunspot minimum. The 'normal' end of the previous
sunspot cycle, Number 23, should have been in 2008, however the prolonged
'minimum' has lasted until 2010, causing the cosmic ray intensity to continue to
climb after 2008.

Problem 1 - If the sunspot minimum had lasted until 2011, making it the cycle
with the longest period of spotless days since 1700, what would the ACE cosmic
ray intensity have been at that time?

Problem 2 - What is the percentage change in the cosmic ray intensity between
sunspot maximum and sunspot minimum from 2001 to 2008 ?

Problem 3 - The fluence of cosmic rays is the number of particles passing

2
through a 1 meter area in one second. If the fluence of the cosmic rays at
2
sunspot minimum is 0.1 particles/m /sec, how many cosmic rays will pass
through the surface area of a cylindrically-shaped spacecraft with a height of 10
meters and a radius of 3 meters in one year? (1 year = 31 million seconds).

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 93
Problem 1 - If the sunspot minimum had lasted until 2011, making it the cycle with the
longest period of spotless days since 1700, what would the ACE cosmic ray intensity
have been at that time? Answer: From the graph, and extending the dots linearly to the
upper right corner, the intensity would have been about 0.00095
2
particles/m /str/sec/MeV

Problem 2 - What is the percentage increase in the cosmic ray intensity between
sunspot maximum and sunspot minimum from 2001 to 2008?
Answer: Minimum = 0.00067 Maximum = 0.0002 so the change is 100% x (0.00067
- 0.0002)/0.0002 or 235%

Problem 3 - The fluence of cosmic rays is the number of particles passing through a 1
2
meter area in one second. If the fluence of the cosmic rays at sunspot minimum is 0.1
2
particles/m /sec, how many cosmic rays will pass through the surface area of a
cylindrically-shaped spacecraft with a height of 10 meters and a radius of 3 meters in
one year? (1 year = 31 million seconds).
2 2 2
Answer: The area of the spacecraft is A = πR h = 3.14 x (3) x10 = 283 meters

8
The total cosmic ray count would be N = 0.1 x (283) x (31,000,000) = 8.8 x 10
cosmic rays.

Space Math [Link]

 Active Region Evolution and Energy Release 94
Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
-7 0 8 0 1 0 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 9 0 0 4 11 2 0 3 4 2
-6 0 15 2 2 0 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 13 0 0 6 7 0 4 0 2 7
-5 0 8 3 1 0 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 5 6 2 4 5 0 2 0 2 1
-4 0 8 3 2 11 6 15 14 10 6 0 0 3 1 9 16 8 4 11 8 0 2 0 6 1
-3 1 13 4 0 7 3 8 4 12 0 0 0 11 1 13 15 6 3 7 6 0 3 1 5 0
-2 1 12 14 9 8 8 12 18 15 0 0 1 10 3 15 13 15 7 6 8 2 9 0 6 2
-1 3 9 11 30 5 9 10 12 14 8 9 6 15 3 14 22 14 8 6 10 18 6 0 3 12
0 5 15 8 20 2 19 13 11 6 7 6 6 16 7 9 14 11 12 10 5 16 7 1 6 8

The table above gives the number of C and M-class flares recorded in the 7
days just before the eruption of an X-class flare from the solar surface. On Day-0 the
X-class flare appeared. We would like to know if there is some way to predict whether
an X-class flare will occur based on the amount of solar activity during previous days
leading up to the X-class flare.

Problem 1 - For each day, what is the average number of C and M-class flares
recorded?

Problem 2 - Graph the average number of flares versus the number of days prior to
the X-class flare event. What do you notice about the data?

Problem 3 - A statistical measure of the possible range in a measured value is the

'sigma' or 'standard deviation'. For a given day, subtract the average value from each
of the 25 events. Next compute the square of this difference and sum these squared
quantities. Finally, divide the sum by (25-1) = 24 and take the square root of the
answer. The most likely range of the measurement, A, (1-sigma) is then A +s and A-s.
Compute the sigma for each day, and add 'error bars' to your graph to show the
possible range of values due to statistical sampling.

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 94

18

16

14
Numbe r of flares

12

10

-2
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0

Days Since Flare

Problem 1 - For each day, what is the average number of C and M-class flares
recorded? Answer: See the dots plotted on the graph above, and column 2 of the
table below.

Problem 2 - Graph the average number of flares versus the number of days prior to
the X-class flare event. What do you notice about the data? Answer: See the table
below, column 2, for the averages. These are found by summing the total
number of flares each day, N, and dividing by 25 'events'. The trend is that there
is an increasing number of flares as you get closer to the day of the X-class
flare.
Day Average N Sigma
-7 3 63 3
-6 3 74 4
-5 2 59 3
-4 6 144 5
-3 5 123 5
-2 8 194 6
-1 10 257 7
0 10 240 5
Problem 3 - A statistical measure of the possible range in a measured value is the
'sigma' or 'standard deviation'. For a given day ,subtract the average value from each
of the 25 events. Next compute the square of this difference and sum these squared
quantities. Finally, divide the sum by (25-1) = 24 and take the square root of the
answer. The most likely range of the measurement, A, (1-sigma) is then A +s and A-s.
Compute the sigma for each day, and add 'error bars' to your graph to show the
possible range of values due to statistical sampling. Answer: See graph above.
2 2 2 2
Example, Day -7, Average = 3. Sum = (0-3) + (8-3) + (0-3) + (1-3) + …. = 280.3,
sigma = (280.3/24) = 3.4, so the error bar for day -7 should extend from 3-3.4 = -0.4 to
3+3.4 = 6.4.

Space Math [Link]

 M-flares as Predictors of X-flares 95

Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
-7 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
-6 5 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0
-5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
-4 0 3 0 0 0 0 4 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
-3 0 4 0 0 2 0 2 0 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0
-2 0 1 3 0 2 0 2 0 2 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-1 1 1 5 4 1 0 4 1 4 2 0 0 7 2 1 0 0 4 3 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 1 0
0 0 2 4 6 0 4 0 4 0 0 1 2 3 2 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 2

The table above lists the number of M-class flares that occurred on the sun
in the 7 days preceding the appearance of an X-class flare for 28 separate solar
events.

Problem 1 - For each day, what is the average number of M-class flares that
occurred?

Problem 2 - What is the variance (sigma) for the average value during each day?

Problem 3 - Graph the average number of M-class flares counted for each day
including the range determined by 1-sigma error bars.

Problem 4 - Is the M-flare activity a good predictor of whether an X-class flare will
occur or not?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 95
Problem 1 - For each day, what is the average number of M-class flares that
occurred? Answer: See table below.

Problem 2 - What is the variance (sigma) for the average value during each day?
Answer: See table below.

Day Average Sigma

-7 0.5 1.0
-6 0.5 1.1
-5 0.4 1
-4 0.7 1.6
-3 0.9 1.3
-2 0.8 1.3
-1 1.7 1.8
0 1.4 1.6

Problem 3 - Graph the average number of M-class flares counted for each day
including the range determined by 1-sigma error bars. Answer: See below.

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
M-flares

2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0

Day

Problem 4 - Is the M-flare activity a good predictor of whether an X-class flare will
occur or not? Answer: The averages show a weak trend upwards, but the 1-
sigma error bars are so large that the apparent trend is not statistically
significant. All of the daily averages are within 1-sigma of each other.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Proton Event Energy Release 96
Time Intensity The SOHO satellite is capable of measuring the
(hrs) (Counts) intensity of high-energy protons emitted during a SPE
0 40 using the Celias Proton Monitor developed by solar
4 10000 physicists the University of Maryland. The table on the
8 40000 left gives the recorded intensity for an SPE detected on
12 35000 April 21, 2002 which had a peak intensity of 2,520 pFU.
16 33000 The figure below shows the result of an SPE on
20 25000 the imaging electronics of the SOHO satellite located
24 20000 150 million kilometers from the sun. The white dots and
28 15000 streaks are caused by the high-energy protons striking
32 12000 the pixels and causing data errors.
36 10000
40 8000
44 6000
48 5000
52 4000
56 3000
60 2500
64 2200
68 2000
72 1500
76 1200
80 1000
84 600
88 400
92 250
96 200
100 180

Problem 1 - Graph the time history of the emission from this Solar Proton Event.

Problem 2 - The ground-level normal background radiation dosage is about 0.05

milliRem/hour. Suppose that for an astronaut working inside a shielded spacecraft
that the peak radiation dosage from this event was 10 milliRem/hour. How long
after the start of this SPE will the radiation dosage fall below normal levels?

Space Math [Link]

 Answer Key 96
SPE light curve Courtesy University of Maryland SOHO/Celias Proton Monitor
[Link]

40000

35000

30000
Intensity (Counts)

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (hours)

Problem 1 - Graph the time history of the emission from this Solar Proton Event.
Answer: See above.

Problem 2 - The ground-level normal background radiation dosage is about 0.05

milliRem/hour. Suppose that for an astronaut working inside a shielded spacecraft that
the peak radiation dosage from this event was 10 milliRem/hour. How long after the
start of this SPE will the radiation dosage fall below normal levels?

Answer: Peak counts = 40,000 which equals 10 milliRem, so for 0.05 milliRem we
have the proportion 0.05/10 x 40000 = 200 counts. This level occurs 96 hours after
the start of the storm, so you have to wait nearly 3 days!

Space Math [Link]

 A.1

Guides for Predicting

Space Weather

Space Math [Link]

 A.2

Space Math [Link]

 Near-Earth Missions A.3
Astronauts working in the International
Space Station, and satellite systems operating
within geosynchronous orbit, all rely on accurate
predictions of today's space weather and
expectations for the conditions in the near
future.
The primary data that drives these
forecasts involve research satellite systems at
L1 (ACE, SOHO, SDO) in Earth-orbit (GOES),
along with ground-based monitors that keep
track of solar surface conditions, and the state
of Earth's magnetic field.

Basic Resources You Will Need:

SWAC-Space Weather Action Center [Link]
Media Viewer [Link]
SWPC-Space Weather Prediction Center [Link]

Space Conditions Now:

For humans, the most important forecast that you want to make will be about solar flares
and solar proton events. SWPC provides a quick-look status table at the top of their page.
Ranges near the top of their 5-point scale will be reasons for concern that require immediate
action to reduce radiation exposure. The GOES Solar X-ray Flux graph will indicate whether
there have been any recent M or X-class flares, which require no direct human action since the
actual x-rays from the flares are well-shielded and not harmful. X-class flares can, however,
occur close to the same time as solar proton events, which can be very harmful, and even
lethal. There is no good correlation between flare class and SPE strength, so every solar flare of
class M or X may be followed by an SPE whose particles would arrive within an hour of the X-
flare detection time. Also at this time, satellites may experience a number of operation
anomalies, so care must be taken during M and X-flares to monitor satellite and spacecraft
operations. Strong M and X-flares also cause ionospheric changes that affect GPS ground
accuracy.
The SWPC and SWAC can also be checked for current geomagnetic conditions by
monitoring the Kyoto Dst
[Link]
and Kp indices, [Link] and by checking the ACE
'Bz' magnetometer readings at
[Link]
The Kp bar graph will indicate disturbed geomagnetic conditions ( Kp > 7) by showing
the previous 3-6 hour measurements (previous two bars). Dst will indicate whether a storm is
beginning through the Sudden Storm Commencement 'positive spike' signal that begins shortly
before the main geomagnetic storm arrives, leading to very negative Dst values below -100 nT.
The ACE 'Bz' measurement will become large and negative (< -10 nT) about 30-45 minutes
before a storm commences on Earth. Geomagnetic disturbances can affect ground-based
power grids, and can cause satellite attitude changes if the satellite is relying on magnetometers
to sense orientation. Geomagnetic storms also set into motion a chain of events leading to
increases in spacecraft charging events, electric discharges, and 'killer electrons' that can cause
operational anomalies, and even damage under severe conditions.

Space Math [Link]

 A.4
Space Conditions in the Next Few Days:
Successful predictions of local space weather conditions within the next few days depend on
a detailed knowledge of solar surface conditions. Solar flare forecasts are provided by SWPC in
their '3-day forecast' at [Link] Trends: page. Look
in Section III for the 3-day probabilities for X and M-class flares and SPE. Alternatively, check
whether there are any Active Regions (sunspots) present using daily images at the SWAC Space
Weather Media Viewer.
Also view the SOHO/MDI magnetograms to check on the magnetic complexity of these
regions, and the professional write-up and classification on the SWPC Solar Region Summary
page at [Link] If the active regions show a
classification of alpha or beta, the probability of a significant solar flare is low, but if the classification
is gamma or delta, the probability is higher.
The SOHO/LASCO images on the SWEAC Media Viewer or the current synoptic image
archive at will indicate whether a coronal mass ejection has occurred. Only the halo events are
potentially geomagnetically important, but only those that are Earth-directed. Backside halo events
are of no concern. To distinguish whether a halo CME is front-side and potentially directed at earth,
check for the detection of a radio burst at the SWPC page
[Link] If a burst was detected at the time
of the halo event, then there is a high probability it will reach earth. The speed of the CME can be
determined from the succession of SOHO/LASCO images and compared to tabulated values for
CME speeds to get a prediction for the number of transit hours to Earth.
Also check the SWPC, Space Weather Alerts archive
[Link] to look at the alerts posted for the previous 7 days
based on a professional assessment of potential hazards.

Check list:
1) Solar active regions with gamma or higher classification
2) Halo CME eruption in the past day and determine speed and arrival time
3) Radio burst to discriminate between back-side halo and Earth-directed halo CME
4) Geomagnetic Kp and Dst indices indicating disturbed geomagnetic conditions

Long-term Trends:
These have more to do with what part of the sunspot cycle you are in. Generally, during the
sunspot-minimum years, there is a low risk for M and X-flares, solar proton events and CMEs of all
types. By the time you are 2-years from sunspot maximum, the monthly risk for strong geomagnetic
storms and X or M-class solar flares increases significantly, and remains high for most of the years
after sunspot maximum. Although cosmic ray fluxes are highest during sunspot minimum, activities
deep within Earth's geomagnetic field are shielded from most of the high-energy particles so
radiation exposure is fairly low. During sunspot maximum, lower fluxes of cosmic rays will lessen
the cumulative radiation exposure for activities within Earth's magnetosphere, especially in low-
earth orbit (e.g. ISS).

Check list:
1 ) Determine current year of the sunspot cycle
2 ) Within 2 years of sunspot minimum cosmic rays high, CME and flare probabilities low
3 ) Within 2 years of sunspot maximum cosmic rays low, CME and flare probabilities high

Space Math [Link]

 Missions to the Moon A.5
The transit phase is short enough
that cosmic rays are not a significant risk
factor. It is expected that the 2-3 day
journey will not be scheduled during a
period when a known solar active region is
producing flares or CMEs. If scheduling
does not permit launching during a quiet
period, magnetically complex regions on
the sun will need to be monitored and the
NOAA/SEC space weather indices
monitored for indications that a solar flare
event has a hightened probability. If a halo
CME has been launched, and/or an x-ray
flare of class M or X detected, astronauts
must prepare for the arrival of high-energy
particles within the hour. They must return
from EVAs and seek out shielded regions
in the spacecraft for a duration that could
last several hours or days. Radiation
monitors will indicate when the storm event
has passed. During the event, computers
and other critical digital electronics must
also be monitored for signs of data
corruption and false-commands. For long-
duration stays on the moon, shielding must
be available for astronauts either in a
landed spacecraft, or beneath lunar
regolith in a habitation module.

Basic Resources You Will Need:

SWAC-Space Weather Action Center [Link]
Media Viewer [Link]
SWPC-Space Weather Prediction Center [Link]

Space Conditions Now:

For humans, the most important forecast that you want to make will be about solar
flares and solar proton events. SWPC provides a quick-look status table at the top of their
page. Ranges near the top of their 5-point scale will be reasons for concern that require
immediate action to reduce radiation exposure. The GOES Solar X-ray Flux graph will indicate
whether there have been any recent M or X-class flares, which require no direct human action
since the actual x-rays from the flares are well-shielded and not harmful. X-class flares can,
however, occur close to the same time as solar proton events, which can be very harmful, and
even lethal. There is no good correlation between flare class and SPE strength, so every solar
flare of class M or X may be followed by an SPE whose particles would arrive within an hour of
the X-flare detection time.

Space Math [Link]

 A.6
Space Conditions in the Next Few Days:
Successful predictions of local space weather conditions within the next few days
depend on a detailed knowledge of solar surface conditions. Solar flare forecasts are provided
by SWPC in their '3-day forecast' at [Link]
Trends: page. Look in Section III for the 3-day probabilities for X and M-class flares and SPE.
Alternatively, check whether there are any Active Regions (sunspots) present using daily
images at the SWAC Space Weather Media Viewer.
Also view the SOHO/MDI magnetograms to check on the magnetic complexity of these
regions, and the professional write-up and classification on the SWPC Solar Region Summary
page at [Link] If the active regions show a
classification of alpha or beta, the probability of a significant solar flare is low, but if the
classification is gamma or delta, the probability is higher.
Because the moon has no magnetic field, magnetic storms caused by halo CMEs are
not relevant, however ,halo CMEs can cause solar proton events which will be hazardous to
lunar activities. The SOHO/LASCO images on the SWEAC Media Viewer or the current
synoptic image archive at will indicate whether a coronal mass ejection has occurred. Only the
halo events are potentially important, but only those that are Earth-directed. Backside halo
events are of no concern. To distinguish whether a halo CME is front-side and potentially
directed at earth, check for the detection of a radio burst at the SWPC page
[Link] If a burst was detected at the
time of the halo event, then there is a high probability it will reach the moon. The speed of the
CME can be determined from the succession of SOHO/LASCO images and compared to
tabulated values for CME speeds to get a prediction for the number of transit hours to Earth.
Also check the SWPC, Space Weather Alerts archive
[Link] to look at the alerts posted for the previous 7
days based on a professional assessment of potential hazards.

Check list:
1 ) Solar active regions with gamma or higher classification
2 ) Halo CME eruption in the past day and determine speed and arrival time
3 ) Radio burst to discriminate between back-side halo and Earth-directed halo CME
4 ) Geomagnetic Kp and Dst indices indicating disturbed geomagnetic conditions

Long-term Trends:
These have more to do with what part of the sunspot cycle you are in. Generally, during
the sunspot-minimum years, there is a low risk for M and X-flares, solar proton events and
CMEs of all types. By the time you are 2-years from sunspot maximum, the monthly risk for
strong geomagnetic storms and X or M-class solar flares increases significantly, and remains
high for most of the years after sunspot maximum. Cosmic ray fluxes are highest during
sunspot minimum, and unlike Earth, activities on the lunar surface are not shielded from most
of the high-energy particles so radiation exposure is fairly high and constant. During sunspot
maximum, high fluxes of cosmic rays are considerably lower, but shielding will still be required
to reduce overall cumulative exposure.
Check list:
1 ) Determine current year of the sunspot cycle
2 ) Within 2 years of sunspot minimum cosmic rays high, CME and flare probabilities low
3 ) Within 2 years of sunspot maximum cosmic rays low, CME and flare probabilities high

Images courtesy NASA/Apollo and National Space Society (LUNOX The NASA/JSC "LUNOX" proposal
from 1993) [Link]

Space Math [Link]

 Missions to Mars A.7
These are long-duration journeys
outside Earth’s magnetic field. Cosmic rays are
a constant background contributing to a steady
increase in human dosages. More access to
CME plasma will occur as the orbits traverse a
lager volume of space through which CMEs
are known to travel. As the spacecraft distance
from Earth increases, astronauts will be less
and less able to rely on the vantage points
provided by earth-based satellite observations
of the sun (SOHO etc) to help forecast
upcoming events unless they bring similar
imaging technology with them.

Basic Resources You Will Need:

SWAC-Space Weather Action Center [Link]
Media Viewer [Link]
SWPC-Space Weather Prediction Center [Link]

These resources provide information about space weather conditions from the
vantage point of Earth. To use for Mars forecasting, the location of Mars in its orbit
relative to the position of Earth must be determined and allowed-for. In the following
discussions, we assume that Mars is located in the same orbital quadrant as Earth.
Mars lacks a magnetosphere, so there will be no need to forecast the equivalent
of geomagnetic storms. Only solar flares, solar proton events and cosmic rays are
relevant hazards. On the surface of Mars, the dilute atmosphere provides modest
shielding from some of the solar proton event particles, but secondary particles
produced by the air showers can still elevate the total radiation dosage for space suited
astronauts on the surface.

Space Conditions Now:

The prediction for X and M-class solar flares follows those steps used for Earth
space weather forecasting. These have no direct human health consequences. The
forecasting of these flare events is to anticipate solar proton events, which will have a
larger human impact since mars has no large-scale magnetic field to provide even
modest shielding from some of the high-energy particles. As for earth space weather
forecasting, all X-class flares should be considered as potential warning for solar proton
showers which may arrive at Mars within an hour or so after the x-ray flare emission
arrives.

Space Conditions in the Next Few Days:

Successful predictions of local space weather conditions within the next few days
depend on a detailed knowledge of solar surface conditions. Solar flare forecasts are provided
by SWPC in their '3-day forecast' at [Link]
Trends: page. Look in Section III for the 3-day probabilities for X and M-class flares and SPE.
Alternatively, check whether there are any Active Regions (sunspots) present using daily
images at the SWAC Space Weather Media Viewer.

Space Math [Link]

 A.8
Also view the SOHO/MDI magnetograms to check on the magnetic complexity of these
regions, and the professional write-up and classification on the SWPC Solar Region Summary
page at [Link] If the active regions show a
classification of alpha or beta, the probability of a significant solar flare is low, but if the
classification is gamma or delta, the probability is higher.
Because Mars has no magnetic field, magnetic storms caused by halo CMEs are not
relevant, however, halo CMEs can cause solar proton events which will be hazardous to lunar
activities. The SOHO/LASCO images on the SWEAC Media Viewer or the current synoptic
image archive at will indicate whether a coronal mass ejection has occurred. Only the halo
events are potentially important, but only those that are Mars-directed. Backside halo events
are of no concern. To distinguish whether a halo CME is front-side and potentially directed at
Mars, check for the detection of a radio burst at the SWPC page
[Link] If a burst was detected at the
time of the halo event, by measurements made at Earth, then there is a high probability it will
reach mars some hours after it is detected at Earth through its inevitable geomagnetic effects.
The speed of the CME can be determined from the succession of SOHO/LASCO images and
compared to tabulated values for CME speeds to get a prediction for the number of transit
hours to mars.
Also check the SWPC, Space Weather Alerts archive
[Link] to look at the alerts posted for the previous 7
days based on a professional assessment of potential hazards.

Check list:
1 ) Solar active regions with gamma or higher classification
2 ) Halo CME eruption in the past day and determine speed and arrival time
3 ) Radio burst to discriminate between back-side halo and Mars-directed halo CME
4 ) Geomagnetic Kp and Dst indices indicating disturbed geomagnetic conditions have
reached Earth and the CME is likely in transit to Mars.

Long-term Trends:
These have more to do with what part of the sunspot cycle you are in. Generally, during
the sunspot-minimum years, there is a low risk for M and X-flares, solar proton events and
CMEs of all types. By the time you are 2-years from sunspot maximum, the monthly risk for
strong geomagnetic storms and X or M-class solar flares increases significantly, and remains
high for most of the years after sunspot maximum. Cosmic ray fluxes are highest during
sunspot minimum, and unlike Earth, activities on the lunar surface are not shielded from most
of the high-energy particles so radiation exposure is fairly high and constant. During sunspot
maximum, high fluxes of cosmic rays are considerably lower, but shielding will still be required
to reduce overall cumulative exposure.
Check list:
1 ) Determine current year of the sunspot cycle
2 ) Within 2 years of sunspot minimum cosmic rays high, CME and flare probabilities low
3 ) Within 2 years of sunspot maximum cosmic rays low, CME and flare probabilities high

Space Math [Link]

 Asteroid Missions A.9
Asteroids have no atmosphere or
magnetic fields so space weather conditions
for astronauts exploring these bodies is
essentially that of open space.

The inverse-square law will reduce

the energy and particle fluxes from solar
flares and solar proton events. Coronal mass
ejection plasma and magnetic fields will also
be slightly more diluted through expansion.

Basic Resources You Will Need:

SWAC-Space Weather Action Center [Link]
Media Viewer [Link]
SWPC-Space Weather Prediction Center [Link]

These resources provide information about space weather conditions from the vantage
point of Earth. To use for asteroid forecasting, the location of the asteroid in its orbit
relative to the position of Earth must be determined and allowed-for. In the following
discussions, we assume that the asteroid is located in the same orbital quadrant as
Earth.
Asteroids lack a magnetosphere, so there will be no need to forecast the
equivalent of geomagnetic storms. Only solar flares, solar proton events and cosmic
rays are relevant hazards. The conditions are those of open space.

Space Conditions Now:

The prediction for X and M-class solar flares follows those steps used for Earth space
weather forecasting. These have no direct human health consequences. The forecasting of
these flare events is to anticipate solar proton events, which will have a larger human impact
since mars has no large-scale magnetic field to provide even modest shielding from some of the
high-energy particles. As for Earth space weather forecasting, all X-class flares should be
considered as potential warning for solar proton showers which may arrive at the asteroid within
an hour or so after the x-ray flare emission arrives.

Space Conditions in the Next Few Days:

Successful predictions of local space weather conditions within the next few days depend
on a detailed knowledge of solar surface conditions. Solar flare forecasts are provided by SWPC
in their '3-day forecast' at [Link] Trends: page.
Look in Section III for the 3-day probabilities for X and M-class flares and SPE. Alternatively,
check whether there are any Active Regions (sunspots) present using daily images at the SWAC
Space Weather Media Viewer.

Space Math [Link]

 A.10
Also view the SOHO/MDI magnetograms to check on the magnetic complexity of these
regions, and the professional write-up and classification on the SWPC Solar Region Summary
page at [Link] If the active regions show a
classification of alpha or beta, the probability of a significant solar flare is low, but if the
classification is gamma or delta, the probability is higher.

Because asteroids have no magnetic fields, magnetic storms caused by halo CMEs are
not relevant, however, halo CMEs can cause solar proton events which will be hazardous to
lunar activities. The SOHO/LASCO images on the SWEAC Media Viewer or the current
synoptic image archive at will indicate whether a coronal mass ejection has occurred. Only the
halo events are potentially important, but only those that are asteroid-directed. Backside halo
events are of no concern. To distinguish whether a halo CME is front-side and potentially
directed at the asteroid, check for the detection of a radio burst at the SWPC page
[Link] If a burst was detected at the
time of the halo event, by measurements made at Earth, then there is a high probability it will
reach the asteroid some hours after it is detected at Earth through its inevitable geomagnetic
effects. The speed of the CME can be determined from the succession of SOHO/LASCO
images and compared to tabulated values for CME speeds to get a prediction for the number
of transit hours to mars.
Also check the SWPC, Space Weather Alerts archive
[Link] to look at the alerts posted for the previous 7
days based on a professional assessment of potential hazards.

Check list:
1 ) Solar active regions with gamma or higher classification
2 ) Halo CME eruption in the past day and determine speed and arrival time
3 ) Radio burst to discriminate between back-side halo and asteroid-directed halo CME
4 ) Geomagnetic Kp and Dst indices indicating disturbed geomagnetic conditions have
reached Earth and the CME is likely in transit to the asteroid.

Long-term Trends:
These have more to do with what part of the sunspot cycle you are in. Generally, during
the sunspot-minimum years, there is a low risk for M and X-flares, solar proton events and
CMEs of all types. By the time you are 2-years from sunspot maximum, the monthly risk for
strong geomagnetic storms and X or M-class solar flares increases significantly, and remains
high for most of the years after sunspot maximum. Cosmic ray fluxes are highest during
sunspot minimum, and unlike Earth, activities on the asteroid surface are not shielded from
most of the high-energy particles so radiation exposure is fairly high and constant. During
sunspot maximum, high fluxes of cosmic rays are considerably lower, but shielding will still be
required to reduce overall cumulative exposure.
Check list:
1 ) Determine current year of the sunspot cycle
2 ) Within 2 years of sunspot minimum cosmic rays high, CME and flare probabilities low
3 ) Within 2 years of sunspot maximum cosmic rays low, CME and flare probabilities high

Space Math [Link]

 B.1

A Gallery of Space Weather

Imagery

Space Math [Link]

 The Solar Magnetic Field
The above model was generated using one of the most advanced computer
models of the solar corona in the World. It was produced at the Lockheed Martin
Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory by solar astronomers Drs Markus
Aschwanden, Marc DeRosa and Carolus Schrijver. This model reproduces the
structure of the solar coronal magnetic field as it appeared on 21 October 2000

Space Math [Link]

 X-ray Image of the Sun
This image of the X-ray emissions from the sun was taken on April 3, 2009 by
the Hinode satellite. It shows the locations of plasma heated to over 1 million C
in the inner corona. The bright spots are flare-like regions above the solar
photosphere where tangled magnetic fields are releasing energy. The entire
surface is freckled by thousands of these spots of energy at all times during the
sunspot cycle, and may be the source of energy heating the corona itself.

Space Math [Link]

 Ultraviolet Image of the Sun

UV image showing the prominent active region AR 1087 taken by the

SOHO/EIT camera at 171 Angstroms on July 12, 2010. It shows the location
of an active region with its spectacular magnetic field.

Space Math [Link]

 Coronal Hole
A coronal hole seen by the Solar Dynamics Observatory AIA imager on July
12, 2010 at 193 Angstroms. The corona consists of plasma heated to over 1
million degrees C, which emits copious amounts of X-ray light. The magnetic
fields mostly close back upon the surface, keeping these plasmas close to
the sun (gold colored areas). However, some regions of magnetic field open
out into the interplanetary medium so that the hot plasma can escape. The
result is the dark X-ray poor regions known as coronal holes. These are also
the origins for high-speed solar wind streams that can produce magnetic
storms on Earth if our planet in its orbit happens to be located within these
zones.

Space Math [Link]

 Sunspot Details
Active region AR10030 (July 15, 2002) imaged with the 1-meter, Swedish
Vacuum Telescope. Granulation cells on the solar photosphere are clearly
seen, along with details within the penumbras (light areas) and umbras (dark
areas) of several sunspots. (Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Institute for
Solar Physics: Göran Scharmer) [Link]

Space Math [Link]

 Coronal Mass Ejection

A dramatic Coronal Mass Ejection imaged by the SOHO/LASCO instrument.

Ejected from the solar surface, these enormous clouds of plasma and
magnetic fields can travel several million kilometers an hour and contain
billions of tons of matter. Although this 'CME' is headed away from Earth's
direction, of the many thousands of CMEs produced each sunspot cycle,
hundreds can be aimed towards Earth and when they arrive, cause
spectacular geomagnetic disturbances ,which can be seen as aurora.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Flare
This enormous solar flare on November 4, 2003 caught by the SOHO /
EIT imager was one of the largest solar flares seen in the last 50 years,
and classified as 'X28'. The x-ray energies heated up the upper
atmosphere of Earth for hours, causing satellites to alter their orbits
due to atmospheric drag.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Proton Event
This Solar Proton Event during the Bastille Day storm July 14, 2000
caused streaks in the imaging system on the SOHO satellite. Similar
particle effects can cause satellite anomalies as critical memory locations
are temporarily corrupted, causing false commands to be recorded by
Earth-orbiting satellites. Just as for your home computer, satellite
computers often have to be 're-booted' to correct these temporary
problems.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Corona in X-rays
Complex coronal structures images by the Yohkoh satellite during sunspot
maximum reveal a complex corona whose structure is dramatically
affected by active regions on the solar surface.

Space Math [Link]

.

Model of a Solar Flare

A sketch of a solar flare and coronal mass ejection (NASA/RHESSI) shows
the many detailed parts of the magnetic phenomenon, including an
unstable 'hedgerow' of magnetic loops whose explosive reconnection
causes overlying magnetized plasma to be ejected as a coronal mass
ejection. The entire process lasts only a few minutes, but spans millions of
square kilometers of surface area. The energy release can exceed
thousands of hydrogen bombs released simultaneously.

Space Math [Link]

 Cosmic Ray Tracks
A one-hour image taken with the shutter closed on the Mt Hopkins MMT
telescope in Arizona showing numerous cosmic ray hits and tracks in the
CCD detector in the Red Channel Spectrograph. A similar pattern of tracks
can affect computer memory, causing satellites to misbehave. (Smithsonian
Astrophysical Observatory: [Link]

Space Math [Link]

 Simulated Van Allen Belts
Simulated Van Allen Belts generated by a plasma thruster in Tank #5 of the
Electric Propulsion Laboratory at the Lewis Research Center, Cleveland Ohio,
now John H. Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field. Charged particles follow
the magnetic field of the modeled Earth in a manner analogous to the way
that high-energy electrons and protons are trapped within Earth's van Allen
belts.

Space Math [Link]

 The Ring Current
This image shows energetic neutral atom (ENA) emissions from the
Earth's ring current, as seen with the High Energy Neutral Atom (HENA)
on NASA's IMAGE spacecraft. The false color indicates the intensity of the
ENA emissions. This image was acquired at 21:18 UT on 9 June 2000
during the recovery stage of a geomagnetic storm that began on 8 June.
The view is toward Earth's north pole from an altitude of 5 Earth radii. The
relative size and position of the Earth are indicated by the white circle.
Pairs of representative field lines (extending to 4 and 8 Earth radii
respectively) are shown at (clockwise from top) local midnight, dusk, noon,
and dawn.

Space Math [Link]

 The Plasmasphere
Earth's plasmasphere at 30.4 nm. This image from the Extreme Ultraviolet
Imager on the IMAGE satellite was taken at 07:34 UTC on 24 May 2000, at
a range of 6.0 Earth radii from the center of Earth and a magnetic latitude of
73 N. The Sun is to the lower right, and Earth's shadow extends through the
plasmasphere toward the upper left. The bright ring near the center is an
aurora, and includes emissions at wavelengths other than 30.4 nm.
(Courtesy B.R. Sandel, IMAGE/EUI)

Space Math [Link]

 South Atlantic Anomaly
This map was created by specially processing MISR "dark" data taken
between 3 February and 16 February 2000, while the cover was still closed.
Data from the red band of the most forward-looking MISR camera were
geographically projected over a map of Earth's land areas. The South
Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is a region of unusually high proton levels. Because
proton "hits" even in the SAA are relatively infrequent, each picture element
of the map shows the most extreme "outliers" resulting from proton hits,
rather than the average of all observations.

Space Math [Link]

 H-Alpha Sun
H-alpha image of the sun taken in the light from hydrogen atoms reveals
many details not visible in ordinary 'white light' photographs. The dark
filaments are cool dense plasma within prominences seen against the
hotter solar surface. Also visible are the white areas called plagues where
solar energy diverted from sunspots finally reaches the surface. (Courtesy
National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak)

Space Math [Link]

 Global Positioning System (GPS III) Satellite
One of 30 other satellites orbiting Earth within the van Allen belts, this
constellation forms the backbone of the high-precision position sensing
system now commonly found in cars to give us accurate directions. By
measuring the arrival times of radio signals from 4 GOPS satellites, the
position of a GPS receiver can be determined on the surface of Earth to an
accuracy of a few meters. During solar storms, however, this accuracy
degrades to tens or even hundreds of meters for several hours at a time.
(Lockheed Martin)

Space Math [Link]

 Transformer Damage
Transformer damage from March 1989 'Quebec Blackout' storm caused by
ground currents .These currents flow up the 'ground wire' of transformers and
can temporarily raise the core temperatures to over 300 C, causing burn out
and explosive coolant evaporation. The added currents also cause the metal
core elements to vibrate violently and deform.

Space Math [Link]

 Space Weather Effects

There are many technological systems affected by space weather conditions.

This figure shows a few of them. (Courtesy: Dr. David Boteler; Canadian
National Resources Council [Link]

Space Math [Link]

 The US Power Grid
This enormous roadway for electrical power contains thousands of
expensive transformers and a variety of different power line systems to move
electricity from generation stations to distant users. This grid can be affected
by geomagnetic storms because of the ground currents that can find their
way into the grid through the transformers. This destabilizes the precise load-
supply balances across the grid and can cause it to 'collapse;' in a blackout
condition.
There are 5,400 electric power plants across the country. Every day,
some 12,000 megawatt-hours of electricity flow across this grid to power our
homes and industries. A typical US home consumes about 12,000 kilowatt-
hours each year. About 80% is produced by burning fossil fuels.

Space Math [Link]

 Aurora from Space

Astronaut Don Pettit took this image during Expedition 6 to the ISS in 2003.
The International Space Station (ISS) orbits at nearly the same height as
many aurora, sometimes passing over them, and sometimes right through
them. Still, the auroral electron and proton streams pose no direct danger to
the ISS. From orbit, Pettit reported that changing aurora appeared to crawl
around like giant green amoebas. Over 300 kilometers below, the
Manicouagan Impact Crater can be seen in northern Canada.

Space Math [Link]

 Auroral Ovals over the Poles
Dynamics Explorer satellite image of the aurora from space. The left image is
an extremely large aurora that occurred 14 March 1989 at 0151 UT over the
southern polar regions and the right image is a re-mapping of that image
along magnetic field lines to the northern polar regions. This is a close
approximation of what the auroral oval probably looked like if DE-1 had been
over the northern hemisphere at this time.

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Magnetic Field
This image is the result of a detailed mathematical model of the solar
magnetic field. It shows how some of the magnetic field lines from the solar
surface connect back upon the surface where sunspots are located, but
other field lines reach far into interplanetary space. These open field lines
originate in coronal holes, and provide magnetic pathways for high-energy
solar plasma to flow out into the solar system. ( Darren de Zeeuw; U.
Michigan; Center for Space Environment Modeling)
[Link]

Space Math [Link]

 Solar Wind and Mars
This model shows what happens to the solar wind as it passes-by the planet
Mars. The plasma is bunched-up in a shock front on the sun-side of the
planet, compressing the tenuous atmosphere. The magnetic lines of force in
the solar wind drape across the planet's atmosphere to form a comet-like
shape. Measurements made by orbiting satellites can monitor the
boundaries of this mare-solar plasma as the satellites move in and out of the
boundary areas.

Space Math [Link]

 A Model of Earth's Magnetic Field
This mathematical model of Earth's magnetic field shows many essential
features including the bow shock (Iower orange regions) and the van allen
radiation belts (closed loops) and the magnetotail ( top lines in V-shape
extending out of page).

Space Math [Link]

 Mathematical Model of a Sunspot
The interface between a sunspot’s umbra (dark center) and penumbra
(lighter outer region) shows a complex structure with narrow, almost
horizontal (lighter to white) filaments embedded in a background having a
more vertical (darker to black) magnetic field. Farther out, extended patches
of horizontal field dominate. For the first time, NCAR scientists and
colleagues have modeled this complex structure in a comprehensive 3D
computer simulation, giving scientists their first glimpse below the visible
surface to understand the underlying physical processes. © UCAR, image
courtesy Matthias Rempel, NCAR
[Link]

Space Math [Link]

 Global Positioning System Errors

This map shows the calculated density of electrons in Earth's ionosphere,

and locations where changes in this density will cause GPS radio signals to
experience rapid changes in time. This 'scintillation' leads to significant reductions
in position accuracy at the surface, especially during solar storms when errors as
high as 100 meters can occur for several minutes at a time. The map shows a
region over Central America where position measurements may be inaccurate.
Global maps of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) are produced in real-time
by mapping GPS observables collected from ground stations. These maps are
produced to test real-time data acquisition, monitoring facilities, and mapping
techniques. The mapping can provide accurate ionospheric calibrations to
navigation systems. These maps are also used to monitor ionospheric weather,
and to nowcast ionospheric storms that often occur responding to activities in solar
wind and Earth's magnetosphere as well as thermosphere. This map is produced
by NASA/JPL. ([Link]

Space Math [Link]

 Web Resources in Space Weather Studies C.1

Space Weather Action Center

This NASA resource provides a simplified
data-access page to dozens of real-time
images and data monitors across NASA
missions. Students may use this
resource to practice their space weather
forecasting skills, and submit their
findings.

[Link]

Space Weather Media Viewer

A NASA resource that provides real-time
images of the solar surface from a variety of NASA
satellites and wavelengths. The images can be
selected from a menu bar, and magnified to show
surface details and active regions. There is also
additional information provided about what is being
seen at each wavelength, and links to the mission
education pages and other resources.

[Link]
App/bin-debug/[Link]#

Space Weather Prediction Center

This is a professional space
weather resource provided by NOAA that
serves as a quick-look resource for
assessing the current state of space
weather. The many supplementary
resources and archives allow students and
researchers to look at historical space
weather data extending decades before
the current era and access sunspot
counts, imagery and data plots that show
the changing space weather conditions on
decade, annual, daily and hourly
timescales.

[Link]
[Link]
This is an informal space weather
resource that presents the daily space
weather conditions,geomagnetic indices,
sunspot counts and flare forecasts, along
with news briefs on space weather-related
topics and links to amateur photographs of
aurora. You can also use the archive
feature to revisit past web pages to
January 2001. This is a quick way to find
significant solar storm episodes.

[Link]

Space Weather & Human Impacts

This is an informational website that
discusses the many ways that space
weather can affect humans, and covers all
technological and health issues. Also
featured is an archive of newspaper stories
between 1851-1923.

[Link]

Space Weather Monitors

The Space Weather Monitor program
at the Stanford Solar Center is an education
project to build and distribute inexpensive
($350) ionospheric monitors to students
around the world. The monitors detect solar
flares and other ionospheric disturbances.
Two versions of the monitor exist - one
simple and low-cost, named SID, and one
research quality, called AWESOME.
[Link]
Current Solar Data
This resource was developed by a Ham
radio operator as a convenient quick guide to
solar and ionospheric conditions that affect
radio signal propagation. It mostly keeps track
of conditions that could lead to solar flares
using NASA and NOAA data resources.

[Link]

Community Coordinated Modeling Center

This is a research-grade resource that
allows you to run actual science-based
models to forecast currsnt geophysical and
solar conditions. The 'Instant Runs' link
features specific space weather models
[Link]

Geophysical Institute Solar IMF model

These science-grade models
feature professional solar wind models
that run every 15 minutes after the hour
based on data inputs from satellites.
They show the orientation of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
superimposed on the orbits and current
locations of the inner planets.

[Link]

Mauna Loa Solar Observatory

This resource shows images of
the sun taken every day using a
variety of ground and space-based
imaging systems.

[Link]
Big Bear Solar Observatory
Provides daily solar activity reports
and flare alerts under the 'Data'
tab.
[Link]

Solar Data Analysis Center

This NASA resource features
a variety of real-time and archival
images of the sun at the present
time. A great resource from which
to explore the multi-wavelength
face of our nearest star!!

[Link]

SolarSoft Latest Events Archive

Lists the major solar flares that have
happened in the last few weeks, their dates
and times, classification plus many archival
pages showing solar flare information since
2002. A great resource from which to study
the sun during the sunspot cycle, and learn
about today's state of activity.

[Link]
 D.1

A Catalog of Known Space Weather Impacts

Reported in Newspapers:1850-2004
Exerpted from "Newspaper Reporting of Space Weather: The end of a Golden Age?
Sten Odenwald, American Geophysical Union Journal of Space Weather, 2007, v. 5.

Human Impacts
The most common reporting often involved very detailed accounts of what the
aurora looked like and where they were spotted. Currently, only some of these reports
have any scientific value because of the heterogeneity of the observations. Sometimes
the date and local time were mentioned, but usually not. The most interesting historical
accounts of lasting value are the ones that cover the various human and technological
impacts of the various storm events. These 141 commentaries are sufficiently brief that I
will present complete excerpts in this section, classified according to the type of impact.
The excerpts are complete for the five newspapers that are the primary focus of this
paper, but also include accounts from additional newspapers for selected storm events
in the sample.
Each quotation is referenced to a specific newspaper using the following code
BG = Boston Globe, BS = Baltimore Sun, BT = The Bismark Tribune, CT = Chicago
Tribune, FD = Fairbanks Daily News, FT = Florida Times Union, HW = Harper's Weekly,
KS = Kansas City Evening Star, LA = Los Angeles Times, LT = Louisville Times, MG =
Montreal Gazette, MH = Miami Herald, NO = New Orleans Daily Picayune, NY = New
York Times, OH = Omaha Herald, PI = Philadelphia Inquirer, SN = Savannah Morning
News, WP = Washington Post.

People Amazed
Both ancient and modern reports mention how amazed observers were of the
colors and movement of the aurora. Curiously, this very basic response is so obvious
that reporters often fail to cite the dimensions of this reaction in their stories. Some of
these reports do suggest a large scale impact.

1- "Paris - During the evening it was warm enough to sit out of doors along the
boulevards, and gossip would have had its swing had not a splendid aurora polaris, to
use the latest expression, come to furnish a subject of conversation and curiosity, and to
direct attention from the topics of the day…Nearly everyone fancied that it was the
reflection of a vast incendiary beyond les Invalides, or toward Autruil,…It was not equal,
however ,to the grand aurora of 1870, and conversation turned upon recollections of the
three October nights when the sky was blood-red from horizon to horizon." (NY, 2-29-
1872, p. 2)

2- "Dinner tables all over [Plainfield, NJ] were deserted and the people stood in shivering
groups on lawns and sidewalks watching nature's masterpiece" (NY, 2-14-1882, p.1)

3- "…half of New York seemed to be out of bed watching the skies .Attractive as the
aurora or northern lights always are, seldom if ever were they viewed with greater
interest or by larger numbers than on Sunday night." (NY, 4-18-1882, p.5)

4- "The phenomenon was seen as far south as Vienna, and in Holland crowds awaiting
the birth of Princess Juliana's baby cheered is as a lucky omen" (NY, 1-26-1938, p. 25)
5- "Washington area residents jammed telephone circuits to the Weather Bureau and
newspapers last night following a spectacular display of aurora borealis…The
phenomena, which originates in the Arctic region, was also observed as far south as
Miami." (WP, 11-13-1960, p. A1)

6- "It was hardly the end of the world but many Chicago residents who bombarded
newspapers, radio and television stations, and police departments with calls last night
were startled by the splashes of green and yellow lights in the northern sky" (CT, 7-6-
1974, p. F3)

People Afraid
Fear of the aurora borealis, officially called auroraphobia by psychologists, is a
common if not rampant visceral reaction to seeing the blood-red and fiery colors of
aurora. The vast majority of legends and folklore consider aurora to be bad omens or
portends of wars or cold weather.

7- "Mr. Hood was told by one of the partners of the North=west Company, that he 'once
saw the coruscations of the Aurora Borealis so vivid and low, that the Canadians fell on
their faces and began praying and crying, fearing they should be killed." (Salem Gazette,
9-11-1832, p.2)

8- "Several Paddies in Boston at the time of the late Aurora Borealis, though the day (or
night) of judgment had come, and fell upon their knees and went to praying vehemently."
(Barre Gazette, 2-10-1837, p.2)

9- "…Several old women were nearly frightened to death, thinking it announced the end
of the world, and immediately took to saying their prayers. A fat old citizen tremblingly
stated that this was the avant courier of a dreadful epidemic, like the cholera of 1833,
whilst a French gentleman pooh-poohed, and gravely assured us this was the well
known sign of revolution in Paris, requesting us to make a note of the date of the month."
(NO, 8-30-1859, p. 5)

10- "The Columbus Statesman (newspaper) says that a young lady, aged about sixteen,
of considerable intelligence and prepossessing appearance, is now residing with the
Sheriff of Ottawa County, preparatory to her removal to the lunatic asylum, having
become insane from viewing the aurora borealis a short time ago, which she was
induced to believe betokened the approaching end of the world." (HW, 10-8-1859, p.
647)

11- "Cleveland, OH - The electrical condition which produced the extraordinary auroral
display last night, more or less seriously effected (sic) a great many persons here,
particularly those troubled with nervous disorders. The Rev O. L. Blinkey, pastor of the
Prospect Street Methodist Episcopal Church, was prostrated in his pulpit while praying,
by what was first supposed to be paralysis .Ladies fainted in the churches during the
services, and people who were out of doors as well as in complain generally of strangely
oppressive sensations similar to those attendant upon an earthquake." (NY, 4-18-1882,
p.5)

12- "Peasants in outlying country fled, thinking judgment day had arrived." (NY, 3-11-
1926, p. 1)
13- "The aurora borealis, rarely seen in Southern or Western Europe ,tonight spread fear
in parts of Portugal and lower Austria ,while thousands of Britons were brought running
into the streets in wonderment" (FT, 1-26-1938, p.1)

14- "Superstitious folks of the Scottish lowlands shook their heads and declared the
northern lights always spelled an ill-omen for Scotland" (NY, 1-26-1938, p. 25)

15- "The aurora borealis - northern lights - put on a spectacular display in the Chicago
area last night, causing many residents to call The Tribune to seek information or to
report that they had seen plane crashes, flying saucers, sky rockets, and balloons." (CT,
10-7-1960, p.1)

16- "…Most of the callers thought it was probably a missile fired from Vandenberg Air
Force base or something like that…but there were a couple of callers who said they
were afraid we were being invaded or something" (LA, 3-14-1989, p.2)

17- "Confused sky watchers jammed police lines with reports of falling debris from the
space shuttle Discovery after spotting northern lights for the first time", (MG, 3-15-1989,
p.A3)

Brilliance
Aurora are generally faint, but on occasion 'superluminal' aurora have occurred.
The most frequent accounts involve the 1859, 1882, 1860 and 1921 aurora.

18- "The Brightness of the Sky was so very great that the smallest Print might plainly be
discern'd. But as to the Cause of this Phenomenon, notwithstanding the Lights, we are
altogether in the dark" (Pennsylvania Gazette, 11-12-1730, p. 1)

19- "On the night of August 1 [sic] we were high up on the Rocky Mountains .sleeping in
the open air. A little after midnight we were awakened by the auroral light, so bright that
one could easily read common print. Some of the party insisted that it was daylight and
began the preparation of breakfast. The light continued until morning, varying in intensity
in different parts of the heavens, and slowly changing position." (Rocky Mountain News,
9-17-1859, p. 3)

20- "Sept. 2nd, between 2 and 3 A.M., the aurora displayed itself in greater splendor
than it did on the 28th .Many persons were awakened from their slumbers by the intense
light which entered their chambers." (AJS, Article XXIV; Item 19)

21- "The light was equal to that of daybreak, but was not sufficient to eclipse the light of
the stars. The sea reflected the color, and appeared as if of blood." (AJS, Article XXIV,
Item 31)

22- "Singular as it may appear, a gentleman actually killed three birds with a gun this
morning about 1 o'clock - a circumstance which perhaps never had its like before, and
may never happen again. The birds were killed while the beautiful aurora borealis was at
its height, and being a very early species - larks - were no doubt deceived by the light
appearance of everything and came forth innocently supposing it was day." (The
Pittsfield Sun, 9-22-1859, p.1)
23- "At Omaha on Friday evening the aurora was very brilliant, the illumination rendering
the night almost as bright as day. At St. Paul the sky was of blood-red color…Cheyenne
reports the illumination as that point last night as bright as day." (PE, 11-20-1882, p.1)

24- "…While it was at the brightest, a paper might have been read in the open streets.
The city was bathed in the blood-red light which streamed down from the firmament and
painted the silent, deserted streets and structures. The effect was beautiful in the
extreme and entranced those who saw it." (NY, 4-18-1882, p.5)

25- "Petersburgh, VA - The display of the aurora borealis last night was one of the most
magnificent sights ever witnessed here, and lasted until 4 o'clock this morning. The light
resembled a great conflagration, and was so brilliant that the street lamps could easily
have been dispenced (sic) with" (NY, 4-18-1882, p.5)

26- "Until after midnight crowds stood in Broadway watching the phenomenon…Even
the intense lights of the electric signs along Broadway could not dim the brilliance of the
flaring skies." (NY, 5-15-1921, p.1)

27- "The aurora…was bright enough to be visible from Washington itself - despite the
brightness of the city's own lights" (WP, 5-27-1967, p. B3)

28- "…Although not visible in the New York area, the aurora was so brilliant over Europe
that it aroused fears of conflagrations" (NY, 2-12-1958, p.16)

False Fires
Among the oldest interpretations involve false-fires in distant towns (Ostia ca 74
AD). This interpretation is still quite alive, and has surfaced as recently as 1981 in
reports from Kern County, California.

29- "The Aurora Borealis has lately been unusually bright at the North .The Boston fire
companies recently turned out to quench one of them ,under the impressions we
suppose that the town was on fire. They couldn't reach it." (Vermont Gazette, 8-3-1830,
p.4)

30- "Between 7 and 8 o'clock Wednesday evening, we had quite a brisk alarm of fire.
Bells rang in various parts of the town (Philadelphia), and the cry was given in that deep,
determined and startling tone, which informs the practiced ear that he who utters it is
satisfied that he has reason for his clamor." (Rhode-Island Republican, 2-1-1837, p.2)

31- "...according to another account, the city firemen were led a chase more energetic
than agreeable in the deep snow, after supposed fires. The northern and eastern
portions of the heavens were lit up by a deep crimson glow like the reflections of an
immense fire - and the bells rung, and away went men and boys to look at it, or
extinguish it. But when they arrived at the jumping off place at the North End, the fire
was as far off as ever." (New Bedford Mercury, 1-27-1837, p. 2)

32- "The consternation in the metropolis was very great, thousands of persons were
running in the direction of the supposed awful catastrophe. The engines belonging to the
Fire Brigade stations in Baker street, Farringdon street, Watiing street, Waterloo road,
and likewise those belonging to the West of England station, in fact every fire engine in
London, were horsed and galloped after the supposed scene of destruction, with more
than ordinary energy, followed by carriages, horsemen and vast mobs." (Newport
Mercury, 10-19-1839, p. 1)

33- "..The watchmen were much alarmed at the colored light with which the southern
part of the sky was covered, which gave rise to the belief hat a small village about three
leagues south of Santiago was on fire. This seems to be the first time that a polar light
has been seen at Santiago." (AJS, Article XI, Item15)

34- "A traveler who happened to be in Leichestershire at the time found the inhabitants
of a certain village gazing intently at the phenomenon…The traveler was rather taken
aback, but found upon inquiry that the villagers all believed the red light in the sky to be
the reflection of Paris on fire…" (HW, 1870, v 12/17, p.819)

35- "Hundreds of persons in this city [New York] started on a run for the West Side
thinking there was a big fire over in New Jersey. When they reached the river, however,
and the light was as far away as ever, and they for the first time noticed the white auroral
streamers, the more ignorant became afraid...Many thought it was a sign that the world
was coming to an end." (NY, 2-14-1892, p. 1)

36- "Bostonians thought all Cambridge was afire, and the Boston Fire Department
actually got in readiness to respond to a call to save the Harvard University buildings."
(NY, 2-14-1892, p. 1)

37- "Residents along the New Jersey coast generally attributed the glow in the sky to the
prevalence of forest fires in the interior of the state." (NY, 2-14-1892, p. 1)

38- "The whole fire department of Salzburg was called out last night to quench the
northern lights. It was the first time the aurora borealis had ever been seen here and so
many alarms were turned in from all parts of Salzburg that the bewildered firemen
thought the whole city was simultaneously in flames and helped to increase the panic by
dashing about in all directions." (NY, 3-11-1926, p. 1)

39- "The tocsin was sounded at 4 o'clock this morning in the village of Musiege in Haute
Savoie, bringing out the fire brigade and all the villagers, who saw immense flames
rising to the sky above a neighboring village. They dashed to the rescue, but upon
arriving at the spot they found the villagers asleep and no fire. Then they discovered that
nature had played a joke .A beautiful aurora borealis hovering over the village had given
the impression from afar of a huge conflagration. The villagers chaffed the fireman,
asking them to extinguish the aurora borealis." (NY, 2-26-1927, p. 15)

40- "United States forest officials at Descanso, forty miles east of here [San Diego] were
routed out of bed early today by reports of a 'great fire in the back country" .They found it
was only the aurora borealis, last seen here in February 1888." (NY, 1-23-1938, p. 29)

41- Hamilton Bermuda - The sky was brilliantly lighted with dark red streamers, flashing
like searchlights. Many persons thought the light was caused by a ship afire at sea...
Steamship agents took the precaution of checking with wireless stations to learn if there
had been any SOS calls. " (NY, 1-26-1938, p. 25)

42- "It was only the Aurora Borealis on the blink again that kept fireman dashing about
much of Europe into the early morning hours today." (Louisville Times, 1-26-1938, p1)
43- "In Sofia Bulgaria…there was a flaming track of fire in the heavens and in several
places in the provinces, and even in Sofia, fire brigades were called out. A less brilliant
display was seen in Yugoslavia" (NY, 3-26-1940, p.18)

44- "Telephone lines to police, fire departments and newspapers were clogged as
hundreds inquired as to the cause of the brilliant glow. Most thought it was a huge fire in
the distance" (BG, 2-11-1958, p.1)

45- "One firehouse reported that even rookie firemen were calling in, confessing they'd
'never seen it before and figured it must be fire'. (WP, 11-14-1960, p A3)

46- "Dozens of calls were received at the Globe .Some thought it was the reflection of a
five-alarm fire in Malden .A Navy veteran compared it to the hues cast by burning
tankers torpedoed on the Atlantic during World War II." (BG, 11-13-1960, p.1)

47- "The unusual southerly display of the aurora borealis Sunday night colored skies
along the eastern edge of California, causing a flood of calls to police and prompting one
Fire Department to send out firefighters in search of a blaze…The Kern County Fire
Department sent a unit to a reported fire in the Caliente area but learned the glow was
not a fire, a dispatcher said." (LA, 4-13-1981, p. 1)

48- "In Brownsville Texas, the southernmost city in the continental United States, police
Sgt .Rudy Limas said, 'People say they're seeing something red or orange in color in the
sky, like a fire'" (PI, 3-14, p.17A)

Telegraph Service
The advent of the electric telegraph by Joseph Henry in 1830 and perfected by
Samuel F.B. Morse in ca 1838, was followed by the recognition that it could be affected
by magnetic storms once the telegraph network had reached a large-enough geographic
capacity. In 1848, Carlo Matteucci (1811 - 1868) the Director of Telegraphs in Pisa
observed the iron armatures of the electric telegraph connecting Pisa and Florence
behave in an unexpected manner during a brilliant aurora on November 17, 1848. The
electromagnets remained powered even without the battery attached. This behavior
ceased once the aurora dimmed. This effect was extensively reported by newspapers
during the August-September, 1859 storm. It would be repeated in telegraph systems
around the world for the next 100 years, during which time extensive citations of
interruptions in telegraph service can be found. The longest disruption probably involved
the January 26, 1938 storm which caused disruptions for a ' few days'.

49- "During the splendid aurora borealis of Monday evening very singular phenomena
were noticed on the telegraph wires…Strong magnetic currents seemed to pass from the
ground into the wires, at times so powerful as to overcome the batteries on the line, and
reverse the magnetic poles, making queer work, and causing some perplexity among the
operators. The magnetic currents were evidently joining in the merry dance of their
brilliant partners in the sky." (Weekly Eagle, 10-2-1851, p.2)

50- "On the 19 of February, 1852, there was a brilliant display of the northern aurora,
and while it continued the telegraph lines were singularly affected; on the Boston and
Montreal lines the batteries were disconnected and messages sent wholly by the auroral
current." (The Farmer's Cabinet, 9-28-1858, p.2)
51- "The Manager of the Electric telegraph Company in Glasgow, Scotland, states that
the transmission of intelligence over the wires was suspended in consequence of an
aurora borealis, which prevailed at the time." (Barre Patriot, 1-14-1853, p. 1)

52- "The atmosphere was so strongly impregnated with electricity that communication
was kept up for some time with New York, Boston and Montreal over the Western Union
telegraph wires without the use of a battery" (CT, 5-29-1877, p. 2)

53- "It very seriously affected the workings of the telegraph lines both on the land and in
the sea, and for three hours from 9 AM until noon telegraph business east of the
Mississippi and north of Washington was at a stand-still…While no great damage was
done, there was very much annoyance by reason of the delay in the transmission of
business, and at 4 o'clock, when the trouble seemed to have ceased entirely, every
instrument and every operator was busy in rushing off the accumulated business' (NY,
11-17-1882, p.1)

54- "Telegraph and telephone lines in the British Isles and throughout all northern
Europe have been seriously interrupted by the great magnetic storm which virtually
paralyzed wire transmission in the United States Saturday night and Sunday" (MH, 5-17-
1921, p. 2)

55- "Slow transmission of market transactions between Wall Street and London was
caused by the magnetic disturbance yesterday morning." (NY, 10-16-1926, p. 11)

56- "Telegraphic communications throughout the United States - including the

Associated Press network of 300,000 miles of leased wires, have caught the dickens
during the last couple of days. The static was so intense that when operators sent out
such a phrase as 'diplomatic sources' the words arrived as 'awgxvm kvkpvaqvu'. (Florida
Times Union, 1-26-1938, p.1)

57- "A crippling blow to telegraph service for five hours on a day when the lines are
bogged down with Easter messages" (NY, 3-25-1940, p. 1)

Cables
The strongest geomagnetic storms can generate ground currents, which when
coupled to long conductors, can induce electric fields from 1 to 10 volts/km. This leads
to, potentially, thousands of volts on sub-ocean or ground telegraph and telephone
cables.

58- "The underground wires and cables seemed to be as seriously affected as the land
lines…The electric disturbances also prevented service over the Mexican and Cuban
cables as well as the Atlantic cables" (NY, 11-17-1882, p.1)

59- "Officials of the cable companies, in describing the effect on the cables beneath
fathoms of ocean, declared that one enterprise that ordinarily received from twenty-five
to thirty cables every day had received only one up to late last night." (NY, 3-23-1920, p.
13)

60- "Three of the eight transatlantic cables owned by Western Union were affected by
earth currents accompanying the aurora…Two of these were in full operation again, but
the third, although not entirely out of commission, was not back to normal…the cost of
repairing even a small fault in a cable in deep water would reach $200,000.." (NY, 5-18-
1921, p. 12)

Navigation Errors
The fact that magnetic storms could affect compass needles was first shown by
Gellibrand (1634), in his treatise "A Discourse mathematical on the Variation of the
Magnetical Needle together with its admirable Diminution lately discovered" and later
studied in detail by Anders Celcius (1701-1744) and his student Olof Hiorter (1696-1750)
who in 1741 uncovered a correlation between magnetic 'activity' and auroral sightings
near Uppsala, Sweden and London.
Navigation errors caused by magnetic storms are the simplest to identify and
should be the most direct impact of severe space weather events. Identifying reports of
actual instances during which compass bearings were affected is, however, a challenge.
The most likely documentation might be expected from the numerous ships logs
recorded daily during the 1800's by the thousands of ships that annually plied the
oceans. Identifying these reports would be a monumental, and extraordinarily tedious,
process. There are, however, scattered newspaper reports from 1837 (Olmstead, 1837)
that claim that compasses were, indeed, actually affected by magnetic storm events
producing deviations as high as 10 degrees in a few hours- deviations easily detected by
maritime systems.

61- "The magnetic needle shifted its position more than a degree in the course of five
minutes, and the common focus was supposed to be about the pole of the dipping
needle." (The Pittsfield Sun, 11-26-1835, p. 2)

62- "As usual in brilliant exhibitions of the Aurora Borealis, the Magnetic Needle was
exceedingly disturbed…It often moved 30 minutes in three seconds .Its entire range was
nearly six degrees." (Connecticut Courant ,11-25-1837, p. 2)

63- "During the Great Auroral Display of September 2, 1859, the disturbances of the
magnetic needle were very remarkable…At Toronto, in Canada, the declination of the
needle changed nearly four degrees in half an hour." (Harper's New Monthly Magazine
June 1869, vol. XXXIX, p. 12)

64- "Generally the magnetic disturbances are too small to be noticed with an ordinary
compass; but sometimes the deviations amount to several degrees, vastly to the
discernment of any unlucky surveyor who may happen to be running a farm-line at the
time - for aurora occur by day as of ten as by night" (NY, 10-23-1872, p. 4)

65- "A magnetic storm, sweeping in from stellar space and bringing two huge sunspots
to the sun's surface, played strange tricks yesterday across a wide part of the earth as
compass needles on ships at sea trembled erratically, teletype machines tapped
messages that had no meaning, and short-wave communications between the United
States and Europe went into a temporary 'blackout'…' (NY, 2-3-1946, p.26)

66- "Brussels, Sept. 23 (AP), Budget Minister Joseph Merlot today said 'abnormal
weather conditions and the aurora borealis' might have put the instruments out of order
on the Sabena airlines plane that crashed near Cander (sic), N.F, killing 26 persons."
(LA, 9-24-1946, p.4)
Weird Sounds
There have been persistent accounts of aurora causing audible sounds that
could be perceived by observers under certain conditions. Often dismissed as a
sympathetic reaction to seeing moving fire in the sky, there may be situations in which
sounds can occur. The easiest to understand are sounds produced by 'aurora' in which
technology is used as a transducer. Ground currents can be exceptionally strong and
infiltrate themselves into telephone and radio systems. Although not directly associated
with aurora, ‘whistlers’ can be detected on long-wave systems under proper conditions.

67- "An observer informs us that he distinctly heard the sound which not infrequently
accompany this phenomenon, a slight flapping sound, in quick succession like that made
by the waving of heavy drapery.", (Republican Star, 5-3-1831, p.3)

68- "The telephone lines of the Metropolitan Telephone Company also refused to work
during the greater part of the day…People who attempted to use the telephone lines
heard a buzzing, ringing noise, rather than any well-defined sound..." (NY, 11-17-1882,
p.1)

69- "A dispatch from Albany states that during the continuance of the aurora at that
place a peculiar rustling noise was plainly heard at the telephones…" (NY, 2-14-1892, p.
1)

70- "In lonely northern districts, where other noises do not interrupt, particularly brilliant
polar lights that appear to flash low to the ground are said to be accompanied by a
swishing and crackling sound. " (NY, 5-15-1921, p.1)

71- "Operators of the local wireless station (Berezov, Tobolsk Province Siberia) report
that while watching the aurora borealis they heard melodic sounds. The sounds rose and
fell in consonance with the fluctuations of the aurora" (NY, 10-5-1927, p. 24)

Air Travel
All reports of impacts to air travel involve some aspect of space weather affecting
radio communications systems. In one instance, however, auroral interference with
magnetic navigation was suggested as a contributing cause to a fatal crash on
September 23, 1946.

72- "Some pilots on landing said that they had relayed messages from one plain to
another; thus a plane some distance away from the airport would make contact with
another plane near the airport and notify the field that the farther plane was coming in"
(NY, 3-25-1940, p. 1)

73- "Long-range radio communications have been so seriously disrupted by the aurora
borealis that transatlantic planes have in many cases been seriously delayed, according
to airline reports yesterday. Thirteen planes operated by major transocean airlines were
held up during the day. Six Europe-bound planes were stalled in Gander, Newfoundland,
and seven west-bound ones in Shannon, Eire." (NY, 3-27-1946, p. 13)

74- "The first trans-Atlantic plane to break through an almost complete blackout of radio
communications caused by the aurora borealis since March 22 arrived at La Guardia
Field at 5 P.M. (E.S.T.) March 27. The plane which arrived was a liner from Paris. It had
been held at Shannon Airport, Eire, 15 hours. Officials at La Guardia Field said unusual
radio conditions would continue, although they are not expected to be severe." (Christian
Science Monitor, 3-29-1946, p.13)

75- "Long-range radio communications have been so seriously disrupted by the aurora
borealis in the last few days that trans-Atlantic planes have in many cases been
seriously delayed, according to airline reports yesterday. Thirteen planes operated by
major transocean airlines were held up during the day .Six Europe-bound planes were
stalled in Gander, Newfoundland, and seven westbound ones at Shannon, Eire." (NY, 3-
27-1946, p. 13)

76- "Brussels, Sept. 23 (AP), Budget Minister Joseph Merlot today said 'abnormal
weather conditions and the aurora borealis' might have put the instruments out of order
on the Sabena airlines plane that crashed near Cander (sic), N.F, killing 26 persons."
(LA, 9-24-1946, p.4)

77- "Yesterday's blackout…paralysed (sic) Dorval airport, delaying flights" (MG, 3-14-
1989, p.1)

Rail Service
Impacts to rail service invariably involve problems with electric signaling
equipment, however, in one instance ground currents may have been involved in an
actual power failure in 1903.

78- "In Geneva, all the electrical street cars were brought to a sudden standstill, and the
unexpected cessation of the electric current caused consternation at the generating
works, where all efforts to discover the cause were fruitless" (NY, 11-2-1903, p. 7)

79- "It may have contributed to a short circuit in the New York Central signal system,
followed by a fire in the Fifty-seventh Street signal tower." (NY, 5-17-1921, p. 1)

80- "Brewster NY - A fire which destroyed the Central New England Railroad station,
here, Saturday night, was caused by the Aurora Borealis, in the opinion of the railroad
officials. Telegraph Operator Hatch says he was driven away from his instrument by a
flare of flame which enveloped the switchboard and ignited the building. The loss was
$6,000" (NY, 5-17-1921, p. 1)

81- "The sunspot which caused the brilliant Aurora on Saturday night and the worst
electrical disturbances in memory on the telegraph systems was credited with an
unprecedented thing at 7:04 o'clock yesterday morning, when the entire signal and
switching system of New York Central railroad below 125th Street was put out of
operation, followed by a fire in the control tower at Fifty-seventh Street and Park
Avenue…While all outgoing and incoming trains were stopped, the Fire Department
extinguished the fire in the tower, but not until residents of many Park Avenue apartment
houses were coughing and choking from the suffocating vapors which spread for
blocks." (NY, 5-16-1921, p.2)

82- "The phenomenon was also the cause of delay to express trains on the L.N.F.R.
Manchester-Sheffeld line. At 7:48 PM, the signaling apparatus in both the parallel
Woodhead Tunnels was found to be out of order. The working of the trains through the
tunnels was stopped. An official said that the failure was apparently due to the electrical
disturbances caused by the Aurora Borealis." (LT, 1-27-1938, p. 2)

Voltages
A common complaint involves the detection of unusually large voltages and
currents on telegraphic systems. The presumed mechanism has ground currents
invading open ‘one-line’ telegraph circuits, which can produce 200-700 Volts. The most
intense event occurred during the 1921 geomagnetic storm when voltages exceeding
1,000 volts were reported, and electric field strengths in the range of 20 Volts/km cited
(Kappenman, 2004). During the 1989 Quebec blackout, electric fields of 1.7 Volts/km
were detected for 20seconds at the station near Louvincourt (Bolduc, 2002). During the
August 4, 1972 event, a strength of 7.4 Volts/km was measured at the Meanook
Magnetic Observatory near Edmonton, Alberta. (Space Weather Canada, 2006).

83- "An electric lamp attached to a St. Paul wire made a brilliant illumination without the
use of a battery" (CT, 11-18-1882, p.2)

84- "The telegraph system of this country has, since Friday morning last, been disturbed
in a way that far exceeds anything of the kind that has ever happened before…The
electric storm commenced on Thursday, but reached its climax on Friday morning
(November 17) between 10 and 11 a.m. The currents measured over 50 milliamperes,
which is five times greater than the ordinary working currents." (Nature, 11-23-1882, p.
82 )

85- "…at its climax [October 31, 1903] there were 675 volts of electricity - enough to kill
a man - in the wires without the batteries attached…" (NY, 11-1-1903, p.1)

86- "During the height of the electrical disturbance the measuring instruments in the
telegraph offices in this city [New York] registered the presence on the wires of upward
of 500 volts of electric current from the unknown source" (NY, 9-26-1909, p.12)

87- "The electrical disturbance was so marked that wire traffic chiefs at the Chesapeake
and Potomac telephone headquarters reported that meters registered more than 1,000
volts…" (NY, 5-16-1921, p. 1)

88- "The Consolidated Edison System reported that at the height of the trouble Sunday
morning "voltage dips" of 1,500 volts were recorded at its three main generator stations
in Brooklyn and the Bronx. The dips, a spokesman explained, represented power loss in
the strength of electrical power being generated" (NY, 3-26-1940, p.18)

89- "Postal Telegraph officials said they had not seen anything like this in twenty-five
years. The current of the electrical disturbance in the earth measured from 200 to 400
volts, they said" (NY, 3-25-1940, p. 1)

90- "From Newfoundland came reports that magnetism from the aurora has caused the
voltage in electric circuits to vary in a range of 320 volts. Utility companies in many parts
of the United States reported similar disruptions." (NY, 2-11-1958, p.62)

91- "The telephone company reported the cosmic display caused more than usual havoc
this time .Voltage meters all over the system suddenly shot up..trouble lights flashed on"
(BG, 2-11-1958, p1)
92-"The Alaskan power utilities are completing a north-south tie linking the coastal power
grid centered on Anchorage, with the interior one based at Fairbanks. Auroral-induced
fluctuations have already been recorded in the tie linking a coal-burning power plant at
the Healy mine near Alaska Range and Fairbanks." (NY, 2-4-1986, p.C3)

Weather
The relationship between auroral sightings and weather has a long history, but is
mostly folkloric and cannot be dated to determine their origins. Newspaper reports of
aurora in the 1700’s already seem eager to make this connection, but apparently not for
the first time.

93- "On the evening of the 17th instant, a very bright Aurora Borealis rendered the
northern part of the heavens luminous…The 15th and 16th were cold days, the wind
generally from the north-east.."(The Boston Patriot, 7-17-1814)

94- "The weather to-day has been very cold for the season. Brilliant auroral displays are
apt to be followed by cold weather and frosts, and this instance is no exception. For ZA
week past the press at the West has alluded to the show of Northern Lights, and at the
same time to extraordinarily cold weather." (Rochester Advertiser, 9-2-1859, p.2)

95- "Thus far it remains uncertain whether the earth as a whole is warmer or colder; but
there is a slight balance of probability in favor of the former supposition, the greater
activity of the solar surface when the spots are most numerous, probably ore than
compensating for the diminution of luminous area." (NY, 7-16-1873, p. 4)

96- "The humidity of the atmosphere, which has been so apparent for several weeks,
has resulted in a density most favorable to electrical phenomena .An aurora borealis
was the first evidence of the overcharging of the atmosphere with electrical fluid."
(NY,11-18-1882, p.1)

97- "Sir Oliver Lodge and Sir Norman Lockyer were interviewed on the matter (of the
telegraph interference) and agreed in attributing the cause to sun spots and an increase
in solar activity, which would also account for the unusual wet season now being
experienced.", (NY, 11-2-1903, p.7)

98- "The ionospheric disturbances, a reaction from storms on the sun, have prevented
proper reflection of radio waves .The weather here, meantime, continued unseasonably
warm…With the beginning of rain during the afternoon the mercury started to fall." (NY,
3-27-1946, p.13)

Politics - Warfare
Although the earliest accounts suggest that the aurora were omens for wars, the
practical consequence seems to be in providing additional light with which to change the
outcome of a particular battle. Recently, however, the short-wave radio interruptions
produced communication blackouts during which time important information could not be
transmitted.

99- "Owing to unfavorable static conditions, in the North Atlantic, which have
handicapped wireless communication between this country and Germany, the German
Government for some time has found it practically impossible to send messages here
without having them pass first into the hand of the British censors in London…Germany
may thus remain isolated from the rest of the world for several weeks. It has been
estimated that the static disturbances now occurring often increase the wireless distance
between Nauen and Sayville by the equivalent of 2,000 miles." (NY, 5-25-1915, p3)

100- "At the radio station in the Brooklyn Navy Yard, information as to the effect of the
freakish electrical show on the wireless operation was refused on the ground that all
information of any character regarding wireless operation had to be furnished through
official channels at Washington" (NY, 5-9-1918,, p. 9)

101- "Seven or eight German airplanes made a raid over England last night. Eleven
persons were known to have been killed and forth-six injured in the metropolitan
district…There was a remarkable display of the auroras borealis last night, and it is
believed by many that this furnished conditions under which the air raiders could work
more effectively than under a clear star-lit sky." (NY, 3-9-1918, p. 3)

102- "The aurora borealis was blamed today by scientists for the failure of President
Coolidge's speech a the International Oratorical Contest last night to get out through the
air to radio listeners…The engineers looked for the cause but could find no mechanical
trouble. " (NY, 10-17-1926, p. 3)

103- "Korean war news began flowing again last night after a blackout for half a
day…This made possible resumption of Korean war coverage from General MacArthur's
headquarters." (NY, 8-20-1950, p. 5)

104- "The United Press quoted University of Chicago scientists as calling the cosmic ray
shower the greatest ever recorded…The Admiralty speculated today that cosmic
disturbances caused a full-scale naval alarm for a British submarine feared missing. The
submarine Acheron due to report her position at 10:05 A.M. (5:05 A. M. Eastern
standard time) while on an Arctic trial, failed to make radio contact…Four hours later
Acheron was heard from and the search was abandoned." (NY, 2-25-1957, p.L21)

105- "Sunspots delayed accounts of the Allied landing today (September 3) in Italy.
Wireless technicians attributed to the spots the faulty transmission from the
Mediterranean area to the United States. Dispatches piled up beside the operators as
they tried various wave lengths in an effort to get through." (NY, 9-4-1943, p.2)

106- "Radio Free Europe said yesterday that its engineers found no indication the
Kremlin had resumed jamming it or its sister station, Radio Liberty, to block reports on
demonstrations in the Soviet Union…Radio Free Europe spokesman Bob Redlich said
that an effect similar to jamming could have been caused by recent increases in solar
activity, which can hamper radio reception." (BS, 3-15-1989, p.4A)

Radio Reception
Radio transmissions via short-wave are severely disrupted by changes in the
ionospheric D-layer during solar flares, causing shortwave fade-outs. During
geomagnetic storms, particle precipitation enhances electron density in the E and F-
layers over large geographic regions, and ionospheric currents cause plasma
irregularities, which lead to radio wave scattering. These problems became increasingly
severe after ca 1930 when higher-frequency broadcasting technology became more
commonplace, supplanting the older long-wave systems that were popular between
1905 and 1929.

107- "Curiously, however, the disturbance that tied up the land wires seemed to
strengthen the signals of wireless apparatus, which were unusually clear during the
period of heaviest land wire disturbance" (The Bismark Tribune, 5-17-1921, p. 8)

108- "Magnetic storms hovering over the Atlantic are bothering the radio engineers who
are striving to pick up European programs for rebroadcasting in America…Last Sunday
Lady Astor spoke in London and was heard with remarkable clearness as her words
crossed the sea on the American Telephone and Telegraph circuit for rebroadcasting
over WABC's system. A half hour later the WEAF-WJZ network with WOR linked into the
hook-up tried to rebroadcast from Holland, but the bombardment of the magnetic storms
ruined the clarity…Twice last week WEAF-WJZ's attempts to relay European programs
in this country were defeated by magnetic storms, which attached the programs coming
from England and Germany and made it impossible to pick up on this side of the ocean."
(NY, 3-2-1930, p. 133)

109- "A virtually complete blanking of short-wave communication between the United
States and Europe, and partial disturbances of service to South America" (NY, 3-25-
1940, p. 1)

110- "During the day, thousands of Brooklyn Dodger fans expressed themselves forcibly
when a broadcast of the game with the Pittsburg Pirates at Pittsburg went off the air with
the score 0-0…while Red Barber was broadcasting the story of the game over WOR.
The broadcast was inaudible for fifteen minutes and when it resumed the Pirates had
piled up four runs. Thousands of Brooklyn followers meanwhile had telephoned the
station and displayed little satisfaction with the explanation that the sun was to blame."
(NY, 9-19-1941, p.25)

111- "Electrical disturbances during the day affected transatlantic short-wave radio
channels, disrupting traffic almost completely." (NY, 9-19-1941)

112- "RCA technical men reported no effect on television during the height of the
magnetic storm" (NY, 9-20-1941, p.19)

113- "Radio listeners heard some spicy and unscheduled telephone conversations
yesterday and the trouble was laid to the current magnetic storm caused by sun
spots…WAAT during the first period, was broadcasting a program of recorded songs by
Bing Crosby, when a conversation between two men was interjected suddenly and quite
clearly into the background…A few minutes later the trouble was back, this time with a
mysterious conversation between two girls who were talking about a 'blind' date." (NY, 9-
20-1941, p.19)

114- "…the Columbia Broadcasting System yesterday reported that the sun spots had
caused an almost complete blackout in radio reception of overseas short-wave
broadcasts for the second consecutive day." (NY, 2-8-1946, p.18)

115- "Radio and TV listeners and viewers spent a hectic three hours as their sets
blanked out, changed stations, or went completely haywire" (BG, 2-11-1958, p1)
116- "The aurora was accompanied by an electric storm that ended all radio
communications between the United States and other countries and that disrupted
telephone, teletype and electric circuits." (NY, 2-11-1958, p.62)

117- "Solar radiation bombarding the earth's atmosphere at speeds of 3,000 feet a
second caused magnetic storms around the world that washed out radio
communications" (NY, 11-14-1960, p.14)

118- "One monitoring station reported that short wave radio contact between New York
and London was all but impossible" (CT, 11-16-1960, p.16)

119- "Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that
the solar flare had already caused some effects on Earth, including some radio
blackouts." (NY, 7-16-2000 p. 21)

Crime
Any documented reports of criminal activity almost certainly involve collateral
issues not directly caused by the aurora or flares. Only one rather humorous example
has been found to date.

120- "Last evening, while Charles F. Krebs stood outdoors admiring the aurora borealis,
the money-drawer was taken from his saloon, and all the cash it contained, to the
amount of between $3 and $4, stolen." (CT, 5-30-1877, p. 10)

Electric Shocks
Related to the very large voltages and currents reported during some exceptional
storms have been reports of humans actually being shocked and injured by currents
flowing in telegraph wires. In the instance of the September 25, 1909 event, a telegraph
operator in Lulea, Sweden actually experienced a severe shock that paralyzed her hand
(Stenquist, 1914). A similar injury may have befallen Frederick Royce during the 1859
storm. There are no actual reports of shocks having actually electrocuted someone,
especially after 1909 when these types of accounts suddenly disappeared from being
newsworthy. Possibly technological solutions to this problem made such events rare.

121- "…The effect was different than that of Aug. 28th. There was an intensity of current
which gave a severe shock when testing…" (AJS, Article XIL, Item 5)

122- "…During the auroral display, I was calling Richmond, and had one hand on the
iron plate. Happening to lean towards the sounder, which is against the wall, my
forehead grazed a ground wire. Immediately I received a very severe electric shock,
which stunned me for an instant. An old man who was sitting facing me, and but a few
feet distant, said that he saw a spark of fire jump from my forehead to the sounder."
(AJS, Article XIL, Item 6)

Ozone and the Atmosphere

Aurora and solar flares cause considerable upper atmosphere changes, but there
are no documented mechanisms in which these effects can reach the surface. One
specific account in Versailles in 1859 can probably be dismissed as a statistical
fluctuation seen under the 'streetlamp' of the 1859 storm. Meanwhile, recent studies by
Thomas et al. (2007) have suggested that a considerable reduction occurred in the
ozone layer during this storm.

123- "Regular observations were made at Versailles on the amount of ozone in the
atmosphere. During the auroras of Aug 28th and Sept. 2, the quantity of ozone was
decidedly greater than usual." (AJS, Article XXXV, Item 4)

124- "At Springfield…during the display of August 28th…The electrotype plates at the
office of the 'Republican' at that place were so seriously affected by the aurora, that they
could not be printed from during the continuance of the phenomenon" (Prescott, 1860)

Equipment fires
Telegraph systems 'over charged' by ground currents are frequently seen to
produce sparks, so it is not surprising to hear of the occasional fire. Frequent mentions
of this appear in the 1859, 1882 and 1921 storms, indeed, during the 1921 storm a
telegraph office in Karlstad, Sweden was actually burned to the ground.

125- "…On the Albany and Springfield circuit, a flash passed across from the break key
of the telegraph apparatus to the iron frame, the flame of which was about half the size
of an ordinary jet of gas. It was accompanied by a humming sound similar to a heavy
current passing between two metal points almost in contact. The heat was sufficient to
cause the smell of scorched wood and paint to be plainly perceptible" (AJS, Article XII,
Item 3)

126- "The switch-board in the Western Union (telegraph) office here ignited half a dozen
times. Several instruments were melted. The duplex and quadruplex wires were
rendered useless, and only one wire out of fifteen between Chicago and New York was
in operation by noon…Reports from offices all over the Northwest told of damaged
switch-boards and melted keys". (CT, 11-18-1882, p.2)

127- "The storm reached as far as Augusta Kentucky .Wires were worked here to
Columbus and St Louis without batteries at this end. The wires were very heavily
charged, a flame appearing when the contact was broken" (CT, 11-18-1882, p.2)

128- "The switch board in the Western Union Telegraph office there [Chicago] was set
on fire several times and much damage was done to the telegraph apparatus. From
Milwaukee a report comes that the volunteer electric current was at one time strong
enough to light up an electric lamp" (Savanna Morning News, 11-18-1882, p.1)

129- "The switch board here (Chicago) was on fire a dozen times during the forenoon,
and half a dozen keys of the instruments were melted by the current" (Kansas City
Evening Star, 11-18-1882, p. 1)

130- "It was reported to the Western Union office in New York that the switch in the
Springfield Mass. Office was set on fire." (NY, 4-18-1882, p.5)

131- "President Newcomb Carlton of the Western Union Telegraph Company said
yesterday that the magnetic disturbance accompanying the aurora borealis on Sunday
morning had blown out fuses, injured electrical apparatus and done other things which
had never been caused by any ground and ocean currents known in the past" (NY, 5-17-
1921, p. 1)
132- "The disturbance was reported by cable to have burned out a telephone station in
Sweden." (NY, 5-17-1921, p. 1)

133- "East and west long distance telephone traffic for the entire country is handled
through the switchboard here [Washington DC]. Nothing went through last night…High
voltage caused by atmospheric electricity coming in on the wires burns out our fuses as
fast as we replace them, the wire chief said" (The Kansas City Star, 5-15-1921, p.1)

134- "The disturbance is believed to have caused a fire which destroyed a telephone
exchange at Karlstad, a Swedish town about 160 miles west of Stockholm." (Miami
Herald, 5-17-1921, p. 2)

135- "Some of the strange results of the magnetic bombardment included the burning
out near Bangor Maine of lightning arrestors that Western Union engineers had thought
were immune to anything but lightning...(including) the complete fusing at Neche, North
Dakota of the Fargo-to-Winnipeg cable." (NY, 3-26-1940, p.18)

Electricity Outages
Outright electrical outages or blackouts are, fortunately, very rare. The earliest
event occurred in Geneva on October 31, 1903. The most famous occurred in Quebec
on March 14, 1989 affecting over 3 million people. The most recent occurred in southern
Sweden during the 2003 'Halloween' storm when the city of Malmö, Sweden suffered
from a power blackout that affected 50,000 customers (Pulkkinen, 2004). All these
events are attributable to excessive ground currents.

136- "The motors furnishing the electricity for the telegraph wires acted strangely
throughout the period, it was reported at the Western Union offices. Just how the
electricity in the air operated to interfere with the electrical apparatus could not be
explained, but the effect was to change continually the quality of the current" (NY, 5-9-
1918, p.9)

137- "Delivery of 195,000 of yesterday's Gazette around Montreal after a power failure
shut down the presses. The Gazette had to borrow the press at La Presse in a different
part of the city that still had power" (MG, 3-12-1989, p.A3)

138- "Hydro-Quebec is blaming yesterday's massive power failure on the stars. Officials
at the utility are citing a magnetic storm - touched off by an explosion on ths sun and
marked by a spectacular display of the northern lights - as the main culprit in the third
province-wide blackout in less than a year….Yesterday's blackout closed schools and
businesses ,kept the Metro shut down during the morning rush hour and paralyzed
Dorval airport, delaying flights .It cost Quebec businesses tens of millions of dollars as it
stalled production, idled workers and spoiled products." (MG, 3-14-1989, p.1)

139- "No major problems were reported at Montreal hospitals because they are powered
by emergency generators in the event of a blackout .Still ,the Montreal Children's
Hospital cancelled elective surgery, "We didn't want to be in a situation where everything
goes black for a few minutes before the generator goes on", said Dr .Nicholas
Steinmetz, the hospital's executive director…Roger Dufor, director of security at St. Luc
Hospital said that for about a half-hour, three or four patients in intensive care had to
have air pumped into their lungs manually when a back-up generator powering the
respiratory machines failed briefly." (MG, 3-14-1989, p.A3)

140- "The General Motors car-assembly plant in Boisbraid lost production of $6.4 million
worth of automobiles…The Montreal Stock Exchange, located in Place Victoria, was
forced to operate on emergency power…most trades had to be completed
manually…Sidbec-Dosco, Inc., a Quebec-owned steel company…estimated yesterday's
production loss at between $500,000 and $1.5 million, "All the steel that was already on
the line in the hot rolling mills is scrap"… Cascades ,Inc., a pulp and paper company
based in Kingsey Falls, said the power shutdown would cost his company between
$200,000 and $300,000…the amount doesn't include salaries." (MG, 3-14-1989, p.A3)

141- "...the utility consortium that serves most of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and
Maryland, said that monitors had detected unusual intermittent electric currents in the
earth and that if the currents became sustained the utilities would reduce long-distance
transmission of electricity." (NY, 6-6-1991, p.A16)
 E.1

A Selection of Newspaper Reprints: 1850-1923

Note: The copyright on these articles expired in 1923 so these reprints are
in the public domain and may be freely reproduced.

NYT, September 10, 1898 NYT November 2, 1903

The Atlanta Constitution, November 1 and 2, 1903
Los Angeles Time, May 25, 1915
Chicago Daily Tribune, May 16, 1921
The Washington Post, May 8, 1918
Chicago Daily Tribune, Feb 14, 1892
Chicago Daily Tribune, June 14, 1890
Los Angeles Times, September 26, 1909
The Atlanta Constitution, May 8, 1918 NYT February 3, 1919
NYT, May 25, 1915
Chicago Daily Tribune, September 10, 1898
New York Times, March 9, 1918
 NASA Educational Resources F.1
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