FORM 3 MATHEMATICS

PROBABILITY NOTES
Probability is the mathematical measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur,
quantified as a number between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain). [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Here are comprehensive study notes covering the Form 3 syllabus topics, complete with simple and
complex examples.
------------------------------
## 1. The Meaning of Probability

*
* Definition: The quantitative measure of chance.
* Scale: Ranges strictly from $0 \le P(A) \le 1$.
* Formula: $P(\text{Success}) + P(\text{Failure}) = 1$. [6, 7, 8, 9, 10]
*

## 2. Experimental Probability

*
* Definition: Probability based on actual trials and observed data.
* Formula:
$$P(E) = \frac{\text{Number of times the event occurs}}{\text{Total number of trials}}$$
* Feature: Results approach theoretical probability as trials increase. [11, 12, 13, 14]
*

## 3. Theoretical Probability

*
* Definition: Probability based on ideal conditions and mathematical reasoning.
* Formula:
$$P(T) = \frac{\text{Number of favorable outcomes}}{\text{Total number of possible equally likely
outcomes}}$$ [15, 16, 17, 18]
*

## 4. Possibility Space (Sample Space)

*
* Definition: A complete set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
* Representation: Can be listed in a set, a table, or a grid. [19, 20, 21, 22, 23]
*

## 5. Continuous Probability

*
* Definition: Probability involving variables that can take any value within a range (e.g., time, weight,
height).
* Measurement: Calculated using geometric areas or intervals rather than counting individual
outcomes. [24, 25, 26, 27, 28]
*

## 6. Mutually Exclusive Events

*
* Definition: Events that cannot happen at the same time.
* Addition Rule:
$$P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B)$$ [29]
*

## 7. Independent Events

*
* Definition: Events where the outcome of one does not affect the outcome of the other.
* Multiplication Rule:
$$P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B)$$ [30, 31, 32, 33]
*

## 8. Tree Diagrams

*
* Definition: A branching diagram used to visualize and calculate probabilities of combined events.
* Rule 1: Multiply probabilities along the branches (for sequential events).
* Rule 2: Add probabilities across different end branches (for alternative outcomes). [34, 35, 36, 37,
38]
*

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## ■ Simple Example: Single Die and Coin Toss
This example demonstrates theoretical probability, possibility spaces, mutually exclusive events,
and independent events in a basic setup.
## Possibility Space
When rolling a fair 6-sided die and tossing a coin simultaneously, the possibility space $S$ is:
$$S = \{(1,H), (2,H), (3,H), (4,H), (5,H), (6,H), (1,T), (2,T), (3,T), (4,T), (5,T), (6,T)\}$$
Total outcomes = $12$.
## Question

1. What is the probability of rolling a 3 or a 5 on the die (Mutually Exclusive)?

## Step-by-Step Solution## Step 1: Calculate Mutually Exclusive Probability

*
* $P(3) = \frac{1}{6}$
* $P(5) = \frac{1}{6}$
* $P(3 \text{ or } 5) = \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} = \frac{2}{6} = \frac{1}{3}$
*

## Step 2: Calculate Independent Probability

*
* $P(\text{Even Number}) = P(2, 4, 6) = \frac{3}{6} = \frac{1}{2}$
* $P(\text{Head}) = \frac{1}{2}$
* $P(\text{Even } \cap \text{ Head}) = \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{4}$
*

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## ■ Complex Example: Conditional Tree Diagram & Continuous Time
This example demonstrates tree diagrams for dependent events (sampling without replacement)
combined with a continuous probability scenario. [40, 41]
## Scenario
A bag contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. Two balls are drawn at random, one after another,
without replacement.
Separately, a student arrives at a bus stop randomly between 7:00 AM and 7:20 AM. The bus
arrives exactly at 7:12 AM and waits for no one. [42, 43, 44, 45]
## Question

1. Draw a tree diagram to find the probability of picking at least one blue ball.
2. Find the continuous probability that the student catches the bus. [46, 47]

## Step-by-Step Solution## Step 1: Analyze the Bag (Tree Diagram Setup)

*
* First Draw: Total balls = 8. $P(R) = \frac{5}{8}$, $P(B) = \frac{3}{8}$.
* Second Draw (if First was Red): Remaining = 4 Red, 3 Blue (Total 7). $P(R\vert{}R) = \frac{4}{7}$,
$P(B\vert{}R) = \frac{3}{7}$.
* Second Draw (if First was Blue): Remaining = 5 Red, 2 Blue (Total 7). $P(R\vert{}B) = \frac{5}{7}$,
$P(B\vert{}B) = \frac{2}{7}$. [48, 49, 50, 51, 52]
*

## Step 2: Calculate "At Least One Blue Ball"

*
* $P(RR) = \frac{5}{8} \times \frac{4}{7} = \frac{20}{56} = \frac{5}{14}$
* $P(\text{At least one } B) = 1 - \frac{5}{14} = \frac{9}{14}$
*

## Step 3: Calculate Continuous Probability

*
* Total time interval for arrival = 7:00 to 7:20 = 20 minutes.
* Favorable time interval to catch the bus = 7:00 to 7:12 = 12 minutes.
* Continuous Probability = $\frac{\text{Favorable Interval Length}}{\text{Total Interval Length}} =
\frac{12}{20} = \frac{3}{5} = 0.6$ [57, 58, 59, 60, 61]
*

------------------------------
## ■ Final Answers## Simple Example

*
* Probability of rolling a 3 or 5: $\frac{1}{3}$
* Probability of an even number and a Head: $\frac{1}{4}$ [62, 63, 64, 65]
*

## Complex Example

*
* Probability of at least one blue ball: $\frac{9}{14}$
* Probability of catching the bus: $\frac{3}{5}$
*

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If you would like to test your understanding, tell me if you want to generate a practice quiz based on
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