3.1.

1 Concept of Human Population

Definition:
Population: The total number of human inhabitants of a specified area (city, country, or
continent) at a given time
Population Geography:
 A branch of geography concerned with spatial analysis of human population
 Focuses on population-space relationships
 Emphasizes interaction and interdependence between human population and physical
environment
Importance of Studying Population:
[Link] nature: Population shows significant quantitative and qualitative changes over
time and space
[Link] implications: Changes in size, composition, structure, and location affect policy
decisions
[Link] purposes: Essential for government planning in:
o Health services
o Education
o Housing
o Social security
o Employment
o Environmental preservation

[Link] development: Population is the major source of labor force for productive and
non-productive sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, teaching, health services)
[Link] force: Human population is the main creator of material wealth
3.1.2 Overview of World Population Growth
Demographic Transition Model (5 Stages)
Stage Characteristics Fertility Mortality Population Growth
Stage 1 Pre-industrial High High Stable/low growth
Stage 2 Developing High Declining Rapid increase
Stage 3 Industrializing Declining Low Slowing growth
Stage 4 Developed Low Low Stable/zero growth
Stage 5 Post-industrial Very low/rising Low Decline/stable

Stage 1: High fertility and mortality; triangular-shaped pyramid; few LDCs today
Stage 2: Death rates decrease (especially children 0-5), birth rates remain high → significant
growth
 Stage 3: Birth rates decrease due to socioeconomic changes, urbanization, contraception →
slower growth
Stage 4: Birth rates equal death rates → slowly growing population
Stage 5: Birth rates may rise slightly, death rates remain low → stable or low growth
World Population Statistics
 1800: 1 billion
 2019: 7.7 billion
 2030 (projected): 8.5 billion (10% increase)
 2050 (projected): 9.7 billion (26% increase)
 2100 (projected): 10.7 billion (42% increase)

Population Trends in Less Developed Countries (LDCs)

 Modest growth until mid-18th century
 Post-WWII: Improved medical facilities, disease control, piped water, education → death
rates decreased
 1980-2010: LDC population nearly doubled
 2011-2050: Projected to rise from 855 million to 1.67 billion
 African LDCs: Highest growth rate (2.8% per year, 1970-2012)
 Challenges: Poverty eradication, food security, health/education systems, urban
infrastructure
 Demographic dividend: Working-age population growing faster → opportunity for
economic growth (requires investment in education and health)
Population Trends in More Developed Countries (MDCs)
 Lower growth rates, trending downward
 Main concern: Population stagnation and aging
 Working-age population decreasing
 Potential support ratio: Persons aged 25-64 compared to those 65+
o Japan: 1.8 (lowest globally)
o 29 countries (mostly Europe, Caribbean): <3
o By 2050: 48 countries (Europe, North America, Eastern/Southeastern Asia) projected <2

3.1.3 Trends of Population Growth in Ethiopia

Key Facts:
 2nd most populous country in Africa
 12th most populous in the world
 2020 population: 114.9 million (UN estimate)
 Current growth rate: 2.6%
3.1.4 Africa's Major Demographic Growth Trends, Distribution, Structure, and
Settlement Patterns
[Link] Fertility, Mortality & Life Expectancy Patterns
A. Fertility Patterns
Key Definitions:
 Fertility: Occurrence of birth in human population (positive factor increasing population)
 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) : Average number of children a woman would have during her
reproductive years (15-49) at current age-specific fertility rates
 Crude Birth Rate (CBR) : Number of live births per 1,000 mid-year population in a given
year
Formula:
CBR = (Total annual live births ÷ Total mid-year population) × 1000

Highest and Lowest CBR in Africa (2020):

Region Highest CBR Lowest CBR
Northern Africa Sudan (31/1000) Tunisia (16/1000)
Western Africa Niger (47/1000) Cape Verde (18/1000)
Eastern Africa Somalia (49/1000) Ethiopia (32/1000)
Central Africa Chad (47/1000) Sao Tome (28/1000)
Southern Africa Namibia (27/1000) Mauritius (11/1000)
Reasons for High Fertility in Africa:
 Less access to contraceptives
 High poverty levels
 Low status of women
 Need for large families as labor force
 Children as symbol of virility
 Low educational background
 Influence of traditions and culture on family size
Future Fertility Trends:
 Africa population projected: 1.0 billion (2010) → 2.5 billion (2050) → 25% of world
population
 Growth rate decline: 2% by 2030 (compared to Asia 1.0%, Latin America 1.2%, world
1.5%)
 B. Mortality Patterns
Key Definitions:
 Mortality: Occurrence of death in human population (negative factor decreasing
population)
 Crude Death Rate (CDR) : Number of deaths per 1,000 mid-year population in a given
year
 Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) : Number of infant deaths (under 1 year) per 1,000 live
births in a given year
 Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) : Number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births
 Life Expectancy: Average number of years a person can expect to live (at birth)
Formulas:
CDR = (Total annual deaths ÷ Total mid-year population) × 1000

IMR = (Total annual infant deaths ÷ Total annual live births) × 1000

MMR = (Total maternal deaths ÷ Total annual live births) × 100,000

Reasons for High Death Rates in Africa:

 Low standard of living
 Low access to health facilities
 Poor sanitary practices
 Civil war and political instability
 Widespread famine from recurrent drought
 Poor nutrition
 High incidence of disease and infections

[Link] Distribution and Density of Africa's Population

Most Populous Countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, DRC, South Africa
Most Densely Populated: Mauritius, Rwanda, Burundi, Comoros, Seychelles
Physical Factors Affecting Distribution:
 Climate
 Relief
 Availability of water
 Soil fertility
 Distribution of minerals

Human Factors Affecting Distribution:

 Economic conditions
 Political situations
 Social factors
[Link] Population Structure
Age Structure
Key Characteristics:
 Africa's median age: 19.7 years (2020) - very young population
 Europe's median age: 42.5 years - aging population
 Low median age = high fertility and high population growth
 High median age = low growth rate

Implications of Young Population:

 High pressure on scarce resources
 Increased demand for food, education, health facilities, employment, housing
 Resources diverted from development to basic supplies
B. Sex Structure
Sex Ratio Formula:
Sex Ratio = (Number of male population ÷ Number of female population) × 100

(Expressed as number of males per 100 females)

Example: If male = 3.6 million, female = 4 million
Sex Ratio = (3.6 ÷ 4) × 100 = 90 (90 males per 100 females)
Ethiopia's Sex Ratio:
 1984: 99.4
 1994: 101.3
 2007: 101.9
 2020: 100.12

C. Population Pyramid
Definition: Graphic representation of the age-sex composition of a population
 Bars represent age groups in ascending order
 Males on left, females on right of central axis
 Length of bars indicates number in each age group
Types of Population Pyramids:
Type Shape Characteristics Found In
Expansive Broad base, High birth rate, high death rate, Developing countries
tapering apex short life expectancy (Ethiopia)
Constructive Narrow base, Low birth rate, aging population, Developed countries
broad top long life expectancy
Stationary Rectangular Balanced fertility and mortality (B = Countries with stable
D), zero growth population
 Major Characteristics of African Population:
 High fertility and mortality rates
 Generally young population
 Triangular population pyramid
 High age dependency ratio (especially youth dependency)
 Low life expectancy
 High population growth rate

[Link] Urban and Rural Settlement Patterns in Africa

Urbanization Contrasts:
 Predominantly rural: Burundi, Rwanda, Malawi, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso
 Highly urbanized (>80%) : Gabon, Western Sahara
Top Urbanized Countries: Gabon (~90%), Western Sahara, Libya, Djibouti, Algeria, Tunisia,
Sao Tome, Cape Verde, Congo, South Africa, Angola, Morocco, Gambia, Mauritania, Botswana
Least Urbanized: Kenya, Eritrea, Chad, Niger, Swaziland, Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan,
Malawi, Burundi (12%)
Regional Urbanization:
 Most urbanized: Southern Africa
 Least urbanized: Eastern Africa
 Current urban population: 41% of total
 Projected: Urban > Rural in ~2 decades

Challenges: Migration flows require access to land, infrastructure, basic services, and health
care
3.1.5 Factors Responsible for Accelerated Population Growth and Their Measures
Major Factors for Population Growth:
1. Agricultural advancements: Food security and continued life
2. Organized agricultural communities: Worker specialization, market economy, urban
societies
3. Industrial revolution: Increased economic output, better nutrition, reduced vulnerability
to disease
4. Medical advances: Reduced death rates (mortality transition)
5. Migration: Movement between countries/regions
6. Illiteracy: Difficulty understanding consequences of rapid growth and using
contraceptives
[Link] Measures of Fertility
1. Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
 Simple to compute but doesn't account for age/sex structure
 Denominator includes everyone, regardless of fertility contribution
Example: If live births = 295,500 in population of 90,898,000
CBR = (295,500 ÷ 90,898,000) × 1000 = 3.25 births per 1000 per year
2. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
 Estimates total children a woman will have throughout reproductive career
 Better measure than CBR (accounts for age/sex structure)
Formula: TFR = 5 × Σ (Age-specific birth rates)
Age groups: 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49
3. Gross Reproductive Rate (GRR)
 Similar to TFR but counts only female births
 GRR = 1.0 → one female exactly replaces herself (zero growth)
 GRR < 1.0 → next generation won't replace themselves
 GRR > 1.0 → current generation more than replaces itself
4. General Fertility Rate (GFR)
 Rectifies CBR weakness by considering only women of reproductive age
Formula: GFR = (Live births ÷ Women aged 15-49) × 1000
 Limitation: Doesn't account for age differences within reproductive years
[Link] Measures of Mortality
1. Crude Death Rate (CDR)
Formula: CDR = (Total deaths ÷ Total mid-year population) × 1000
Example: If deaths = 10,000 in population of 1,000,000
CDR = (10,000 ÷ 1,000,000) × 1000 = 10 deaths per 1000
2. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
Formula: IMR = (Infant deaths under 1 year ÷ Live births) × 1000
Example: If infant deaths = 500, live births = 10,000
IMR = (500 ÷ 10,000) × 1000 = 50 infant deaths per 1000 live births
[Link] Measures of Migration
Immigration Rate: Number of people arriving per 1000 population in a given year
Emigration Rate: Number of people departing per 1000 population in a given year
 Net Migration Rate (NMR) : Net effect (balance) of immigration and emigration
Formula: NMR = [(Immigrants - Emigrants) ÷ Total population] × 1000
Example: If immigrants = 50,000, emigrants = 30,000, population = 10,000,000
NMR = [(50,000 - 30,000) ÷ 10,000,000] × 1000 = 2 per 1000 (net gain)
International Migration Patterns (1980-2020):
 Net recipients: Europe, Northern America, Australia/New Zealand
 Net senders: Africa, Asia, Latin America, Caribbean
 Top destination: United States
 8 European countries had both negative natural increase and net migration (Bosnia,
Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Poland, Portugal, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Romania)
Push Factors: Poor job opportunities, large populations, low wages, violence, insecurity, armed
conflict
Pull Factors: Better jobs, education, family reunification, higher income
Impacts of Migration:
 Positive: Migrants financially better off
 Negative: Less-skilled natives face job competition; cultural/racial changes in receiving
countries
3.1.6 Population Composition and Distribution of Ethiopia
[Link] Population Composition
Definition: Aspects of population measurable in terms of age, sex, marital status, family size,
economic activities, nationality, language, and religion
A. Age Structure
Age Groups:
 Five-year groups: 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, ..., 60-64, 65+
 Broad age groups:
o 0-14: Young dependent population
o 15-64: Working age (economically active)
o 65+: Elderly dependent population

Ethiopia's Population Pyramid (2020):

 Broad base → high fertility
 Narrowing towards top → high mortality, low life expectancy
 Shape typical of developing countries
 Age Dependency Ratio (ADR) : Relationship between working and non-working population
Formula:
ADR = [(Population aged 0-14 + Population aged 65+) ÷ Population aged 15-64] × 100

Example: If total population = 65 million

 Children (0-14): 40% (26 million)
 Working age (15-64): 50% (32.5 million)
 Old age (65+): 10% (6.5 million)
ADR = [(26 + 6.5) ÷ 32.5] × 100 = 100 (100 dependents per 100 workers)
Ethiopia's ADR (2020): 76.8 (76.8 dependents per 100 working population)
B. Sex Structure
Sex Ratio Formula:
Sex Ratio = (Number of males ÷ Number of females) × 100

Ethiopia's Sex Ratio:

 1984: 99.4 (99 males per 100 females)
 1994: 101.3
 2007: 101.9
 2020: 100.12
Significance: Affects marriage prospects, labor force participation, social and economic
variables
[Link] Population Distribution
Population Distribution: How population spreads out over a given area
Population Density: Average number of people per square kilometer
Ethiopia's Crude Density:
 1990: 40.74 people/km²
 1998: 52 people/km²
 2020: 103.9 people/km²
Distribution Pattern:
 77.5% live in highlands (>1800m) - only 37.6% of total area
 89.0% live above 1400m - 65.7% of total area
 Lowlands: sparsely populated
Highest Density Zones: Gedeo, Kambata, Guraghe, Wolayta, Hadiya (>300 persons/km²)
Lowest Density Woredas: Guba (<10/km²), Dolo, Gog
 Factors Affecting Population Distribution:
A. Physical Factors:
[Link] (rainfall and temperature)
[Link] fertility
[Link] water supply
[Link] (slope and altitude) - MOST CRUCIAL
[Link] cover
[Link] (malaria, yellow fever in lowlands)
B. Human Factors:
1. Types of economic activity:
o Pastoralism: low density (requires large grazing areas)
o Crop farming: higher density
o Cereal farming: lower density than enset/coffee farming
o Commercial farms: attract population (e.g., Awash Valley)
2. Historical patterns of population movement
3. Urban and industrial growth
3.1.7 Settlement Patterns of Ethiopia (Urban and Rural)
Settlement Definition: Characteristic groupings of population into occupancy units, together
with facilities (houses, streets) that serve inhabitants; a place where people live and carry
out activities
Types: Hamlets, villages, towns, cities, metropolises, megalopolises
Settlement Hierarchy:
Homestead → Hamlet → Village → Town → City → Metropolis → Megalopolis

[Link] Rural Settlements

Definition: Villages and dispersed settlements in areas far from urban centers; inhabitants
mainly engaged in agriculture
Types:
A. Permanent Settlements:
 Locations don't change frequently (>10 years)
 Found in crop-farming highland areas
 Scattered (dispersed) : Homesteads separated by long distances
 Grouped (nucleated) : Large number of homesteads concentrated
 Villagization Programs:
 Derg Regime: Compulsory villagization for communal land ownership and social services
 Current government: Voluntary villagization and resettlement programs
B. Temporary Settlements:
 Mobile settlements inhabited by nomadic people
 Found in lowlands (rift valley, western, eastern, southern lowlands)
 Seasonal movement with herds due to harsh climatic conditions
[Link] Urban Settlements
Characteristics:
 Larger and compact/nodal
 Primary goods processed in manufacturing plants
 Centers of civilization, intellectual and social capitals
 Political, educational, and social functions
 Major transport centers, markets, financial nodes
Urbanization in Ethiopia:
 Not influenced by European colonialism
 Natural phenomenon of late 19th and early 20th centuries
 Unplanned
Criteria for Urban Center Status in Ethiopia:
[Link] of 2000 people
[Link]-thirds of population engaged in non-agricultural activities
[Link] municipality
[Link] of social services and amenities
Growth of Urban Centers:
 1984: 322 centers (10.23% of population)
 1994: 539 centers (12.8% of population)
 2007: 927 centers
 2020: ~20% urban population

Spatial Variation: Due to varying concentration of industries, schools, health institutions,

water supplies, electricity, transport
3.1.8 Impacts of Population Growth on Sustainable Development in Ethiopia
I. Population Growth and Environmental Degradation
Environmental Degradation: Process where natural environment is compromised, reducing
biological diversity and general health
Causes in Ethiopia:
 Removal of natural vegetation (deforestation)
 Over-grazing
 Inappropriate agricultural practices
 Population pressure (2.6% annual growth)
Main Problems:
 Soil erosion (especially in highlands)
 Land degradation
 Desertification
 Reduced agricultural production
 Food insecurity, drought, famine

II. Population Growth and Food Production

Characteristics:
 Smallholder peasant farming: 95% of annual food production
 Traditional/subsistence methods
 Rainfall-dependent
 Per capita food production declining
 Widespread malnutrition (especially children)

III. Population Growth and Fuel wood Consumption

Facts:
 Fuel wood is most important energy source
 Supply steadily collapsing
 Direct correlation between population density and deforestation

Causes of Deforestation:
 Fuel wood collection
 Agricultural land expansion
 Settlement land expansion
 Grazing land expansion
 Construction materials

Consequences of Deforestation:
 Accelerates soil erosion
 Destroys biodiversity
 Affects rainfall (decreased evapotranspiration)
 Affects natural beauty
IV. Population Growth and Pollution
Pollution: Undesirable change in natural conditions (water, air, environment) affecting health
and activities
Sources:
 Household sewage, solid wastes, pollutant gases
 Industrial chemicals (gases, liquids, solids)
 Automobile emissions
 Agricultural pollutants (fertilizers, pesticides, animal wastes)
Major Problem Areas: Overpopulated urban centers (especially Addis Ababa)
V. Population Growth and Provision of Social Services
Effect on Education:
 Growing demand for education
 Enormous increase in students
 Many children without school access
 Overcrowded classrooms in urban centers
Effect on Health:
 Poor health status
 High population growth rate
 Low access to modern health services
 Urban areas better than rural
 Contributing factors: Poverty, low education, inadequate clean water, poor sanitation,
limited health facilities
3.2 Theories on Population Growth and Development
3.2.1 Conservative Theories
1. Malthusian Theory (Thomas Malthus, 1798)
Core Idea:
 Food production increases linearly (1, 2, 3, 4, 5...)
 Population grows geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32...)

 Therefore, population tends to outstrip food supply → poverty and hunger (Malthusian crisis)
Checks on Population:
Type Description Examples
Preventive Checks Actions to prevent births Moral restraint, late marriage
Positive Checks Factors that increase deaths Disease, war, famine, poor living conditions
 Conclusion: Human suffering and misery are inevitable
2. Neo-Malthusianism
Core Ideas:
 Population growth = main cause of poverty
 Unlike Malthus, they support birth control
 Population reduction → fewer social problems → economic growth
Beliefs:
 High population growth → natural resource depletion → environmental degradation
 Rapid growth in developing countries → poverty, economic stagnation, environmental
destruction, unemployment, political instability
 Problem rests with poor (ignorance, lack of foresight)
 Solution: Persuade/force poor to have fewer children
Evidence Supporters Cite: Recurrent famines in Ethiopia, Somalia
Criticisms of Malthusian/Neo-Malthusian Views:
Criticism Explanation
Diverts attention Ignores social/economic causes of poverty
Blames victims Blames reproductive customs, not underdevelopment
Wrong predictions World food production increased faster than population
Distribution issue Food distribution, not lack of food, is key
Symptom vs cause Population growth is symptom, not cause, of development problems
Ethnocentric Evaluates developing countries by Western criteria
Ignores inequality Fails to address 20% consuming 80% of resources
3.2.2 Radical Theories
1. Ester Boserup's Hypothesis (1965)
Core Idea: "Necessity is the mother of invention" - Population growth stimulates agricultural
innovation and development
Main Arguments:
[Link] and technology are connected
[Link] pressure → intensification of farming methods
[Link] for increased food drives agricultural change
[Link] growth → secondary effects → economic growth
[Link] world regions experienced these changes with population density increase
 Conclusion: Population growth leads to development, not hindrance
Criticisms of Boserup:
 Weak economic basis
 Applies only to agricultural production in developing world
 Based on assumption of unsophisticated, "closed" economies
 Ignores qualitative aspects of diet and nutrition
 Doesn't account for time lag in adaptation
 Doesn't consider fragile environments
 Doesn't explain food problems (surpluses in developed world, famine in developing)
2. Julian Simon's "Ultimate Resource" Theory
Core Idea: People are the ultimate resource; human innovation can solve any problem
Arguments:
 Population growth not necessarily bad
 More people = more minds = more useful knowledge
 Natural resources not finite in economic sense (their cost can continue to fall)
 World food production has increased since WWII (1948-1979 trend shows increase per
person)
 Food shortages caused by politics, not population
 Blames Western subsidies and African government policies for farmers' problems
3. Marxian Perspective (Karl Marx)
Core Idea: Poverty and resource depletion come from unequal distribution, not population
growth
Arguments:
 When ownership/control confined to capitalist/landowning class → potential for poverty
and hunger
 Peasants and workers have little bargaining power
 Capitalism creates surplus population through:
o Physical separation of producers from means of production
o Destruction of traditional farming through mechanization
o Changes in land usage and tenure