PROBABILITY
Mathematics Notes
1. Basic Concepts
The probability of an event is the measure of the likelihood that it will happen. It is given a numerical
scale from 0 to 1. The numbers representing probabilities can be written as decimals, fractions, or
percentages.
Key facts about probability:
• A probability of 0 indicates the event is impossible.
• A probability of 1 (100%) indicates the event is certain to happen.
• All other events have a probability between 0 and 1.
Key Definitions:
• Experiment: A repeated process that gives rise to a number of repeated outcomes.
• Event: A collection or set of one or more outcomes.
• Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
Probability Formula:
Probability is normally denoted by P:
P = (Number of successful outcomes) / (Total number of possible outcomes)
P(A) = n(A) / n()
Example 1
A fair die has each face numbered 1 to 6. The die is thrown up once and the number landing face up
is recorded. Find:
(a) The probability of the die landing 4 face up
(b) The probability of an even number landing face up
Solution:
(a) P(4) = 1/6
(b) P(even number) = 3/6 = 1/2
2. Sample Space Tables
For experiments involving two stages (e.g. two spinners, two dice), a sample space table (also
called an outcome table) lists all possible combined outcomes.
Example 2
Two fair spinners each have faces numbered 1 to 4. The two spinners are thrown together and the
sum of the numbers indicated on each spinner is recorded. Find the probability of the spinners
indicating a sum of:
(a) Exactly 4
(b) More than 4
+ 1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4 5
2 3 4 5 6
3 4 5 6 7
4 5 6 7 8
Total outcomes = 16
(a) P(exactly 4) = 3/16
(b) P(more than 4) = 10/16 = 5/8
3. Use of Venn Diagrams
Venn diagrams can be used to solve probability problems involving two or three events. The universal
set (sample space) is represented by a rectangle, and events are represented by overlapping circles
within it.
Example 3
A card is selected at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. Let A be the event that the card is a 2,
and D be the event that it is a diamond. Find:
(a) P(A D)
(b) P(A')
(c) P(A D)
(d) P(A' D)
Solution:
From a deck of 52 cards: there are 4 twos (A), 13 diamonds (D), and 1 card that is both a two and a
diamond (2 of diamonds — A D).
𝜀 A D
3 1 12
36
(a) P(A D) = 1/52
(b) P(A') = (12 + 36)/52 = 48/52 = 12/13
(c) P(A D) = (3 + 1 + 12)/52 = 16/52 = 4/13
(d) P(A' D) = 12/52 = 3/13
Example 4
In a class of 30 students, 7 are in the choir, 5 are in the school band, and 2 students are in both the
choir and the band. A student is chosen at random from the class.
(a) Draw a Venn diagram to represent this information.
(b) Find the probability that a student is not in the band.
(c) Find the probability that a student is not in the choir nor the band. Solution:
𝜀 choir band
5 2 3
20
(b) P(not in band) = (5 + 20)/30 = 25/30 = 5/6
(c) P(not in choir nor band) = 20/30 = 2/3
4. Using Formulae — The Addition Rule
There is a formula that links the probability of the union and the intersection of two events. Suppose
P(A) = a, P(B) = b, and P(A B) = i.
𝜀 A B
𝑎−𝑖 𝑖 𝑏−𝑖
From a Venn diagram: regions are (a − i), i, (b − i), and the rest.
P(A B) = (𝑎 − 𝑖) + i + (𝑏 − 𝑖)
=𝑎 + 𝑏− 𝑖
Addition Rule:
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A B)
Rearranged to find the intersection:
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A B)
Complement Rule:
P(A') = 1 − P(A)
Example
A and B are two events. P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.7, and P(A B) = 0.9. Find:
(a) P(A B)
(b) P(A')
(c) P(A' B)
(d) P(A' B)
Solutions:
(a) P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A B)
= 0.6 + 0.7 − 0.9
= 1.3 − 0.9
= 0.4
(b) P(A') = 1 − P(A)
= 1 − 0.6
= 0.4
𝜀 A B
0.2 0.4 0.3
0.1
Venn diagram values: A only = 0.2, A B = 0.4, B only = 0.3, Neither = 0.1
(c) P(A' B) = P(A') + P(B) − P(A' B)
= 0.4 + 0.7 − 0.3
= 0.8
(d) P(A' B) = 0.3
5. Conditional Probability
The probability of an event B may be different if you know that a dependent event A has already
occurred. The probability of B given A is written as P(B | A) and is called the conditional probability
of B given A.
Formula:
P(B | A) = P(B A) / P(A)
Similarly: P(A | B) = P(A B) / P(B)
Multiplication Rule:
Rearranging the conditional probability formula gives the multiplication rule:
P(B A) = P(B | A) × P(A)
P(A B) = P(A | B) × P(B)
Example
Two fair spinners each have four faces numbered 1 to 4. The two spinners are thrown together and
the sum of the numbers indicated on each spinner is recorded. Given that at least one spinner lands
on a 3, find the probability of the spinners indicating a sum of exactly 5.
Solution:
Sample space: outcomes listed as ordered pairs (S1, S2). Total = 16 outcomes.
S1 1 2 3 4
S2
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4)
Let event A = 'at least one spinner lands on 3' and event B = 'sum is 5'.
Outcomes where at least one spinner is 3: (1,3), (2,3), (3,3), (4,3), (3,1), (3,2), (3,4) → 7 outcomes
Outcomes where sum is 5 AND at least one is 3: (2,3) and (3,2) → 2 outcomes
P(sum of 5 | at least one is 3) = P(5 3) / P(3)
= (2/16) / (7/16)
= 2/7
Summary of Key Formulae
Rule / Concept Formula
Basic Probability P(A) = n(A) / n()
Complement Rule P(A') = 1 − P(A)
Addition Rule P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A B)
Intersection (rearranged) P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A B)
Conditional Probability P(B | A) = P(B A) / P(A)
Multiplication Rule P(A B) = P(A | B) × P(B)
Notes compiled from classroom notes — KCM Nchanga Secondary Trust School