How Many Contenders?
It’s Simple Math
By Alan Auil
Each year as the Cross Country Classic approaches, the most common question cycling fans ask me is “who
will win?”, but a close second to that is “how many Belizeans can win?”. Of course the answer to that first
question will vary from year to year, but I tend to have the same answer for that second question almost
every year: only two or three Belizeans have a realistic chance to win. Sure, there have been exceptions, like
last year when I thought up to 6 locals stood a chance (Oscar Quiroz, Giovani Lovell, Brandon Cattouse,
Joslyn Chavarria, Ron Vasquez, Nissan Arana) while not even counting the eventual champ, Justin Williams, as
a local. Or a few other times when the answer was a straight-faced “NONE”, like in 2009 when Carlos Lopez
arrived here freshly recovered from having placed second in GC at the Tour of Mexico just 3 weeks earlier.
Or like in 2017 when Alejandro Padilla returned to defend his title in an obvious dearth of competition, and
with a one-man army of help in compatriot Alder Torres. Same will be said if Guatemalan Manuel Rodas ever
tackles this event while he’s still in his super prime. But, by and large, we tend to have only 2 to 3 contenders
each year.
This had me wondering if I could prove by the numbers - using a scientific method, of course - how many
Belizean contenders there are, and as luck would have it I happen to be a math major, so I set about to figure
this out for myself, using just the facts. Once and for all, here are the results of my scientific research:
First let it be noted that for the past 3 decades at least, there have been on average 80 or so Belizean elite
cyclists competing each year. I will say right off the bat that only half of them are talented enough to win this
grand race, so we can eliminate 40 from contention right at the start, based on pure talent alone.
Of the 40 talented riders, sadly only half of them put in the dedicated training required to win, so 20 of them
really are not in the peak form of body and mind necessary to compete over 140 miles on Holy Saturday.
Sorry, but it takes talent, a strong mind AND a fit body to be victorious. You’ve heard the saying “no pain, no
gain” – in cycling I’ll say “no train, no glory”.
Of the 20 remaining talented and in-shape cyclists, half of them will succumb to some bad luck, whether it be
a pivotal crash, untimely puncture, or contracting the chicken pox at the worst time of year. It’s inevitable
that lady luck plays a major factor, and each year it remains so for at least 10 contenders. That leaves 10.
Of those tenacious 10 racers who are talented, in-form, and with no bad luck to speak of, half of them will
either miss the break or get in the wrong break – in any case they’ll eliminate themselves by poor strategy.
So we’re left with only 5 cyclists in the field still with a chance for the garland.
Good strategy for these final 5 will dictate that half of them will sacrifice their own chances in order to help a
teammate who is also present in the break, but with a better chance to win. And that will leave only 2 ½
Belizeans with a real chance to win the Cross Country, but half a cyclist has never won this event before, so
I’ll say 2 or 3 instead. And there you have it: a scientific formula that proves my gut instinct beyond any
reasonable doubt – half of half of half of half of half of the elite field each year have a realistic chance – only 2
or 3 Belizeans can win the Cross Country this year.