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Probability

This document provides a quick reference on probability, covering basic terminology, classical definitions, rules, conditional probability, Bayes' theorem, random variables, and common counting tools. It includes formulas for calculating probabilities, expectations, and examples of common mistakes to avoid. Additionally, it features a solved example illustrating the calculation of probability in a practical scenario.

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2 views2 pages

Probability

This document provides a quick reference on probability, covering basic terminology, classical definitions, rules, conditional probability, Bayes' theorem, random variables, and common counting tools. It includes formulas for calculating probabilities, expectations, and examples of common mistakes to avoid. Additionally, it features a solved example illustrating the calculation of probability in a practical scenario.

Uploaded by

Patel Pump
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Probability

Mathematics Notes — Quick Reference

1. Basic Terminology
• Random experiment: an experiment whose outcome cannot be predicted with certainty (e.g. tossing a coin).
• Sample space (S): the set of all possible outcomes.
• Event: any subset of the sample space.
• Equally likely outcomes: outcomes that have the same chance of occurring.

2. Classical Definition of Probability


P(E) = Number of favourable outcomes / Total number of outcomes = n(E) / n(S)
0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1 | P(S) = 1 | P(impossible event) = 0

3. Rules of Probability
• Complement rule: P(E') = 1 − P(E), where E' is the complement (event not occurring).
• Addition rule (general): P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
• Mutually exclusive events: A ∩ B = ∅, so P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
• Exhaustive events: events whose union covers the entire sample space.

4. Conditional Probability & Independence


P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B), provided P(B) ≠ 0
Multiplication rule: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) · P(B|A) = P(B) · P(A|B)
Independent events: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) · P(B), and P(A|B) = P(A)

5. Bayes' Theorem
P(Aᵢ|B) = [P(Aᵢ)·P(B|Aᵢ)] / Σ P(Aⱼ)·P(B|Aⱼ)
Used to “reverse” conditional probabilities — finding the probability of a cause given an observed effect.

6. Random Variables & Expectation


• A random variable assigns a numerical value to each outcome of a random experiment.
• Probability distribution: a table/function listing each value of the variable with its probability; probabilities must
sum to 1.
• Expectation (mean): E(X) = Σ xᵢ P(xᵢ)
• Variance: Var(X) = E(X²) − [E(X)]²
• Binomial distribution: P(X=r) = ⁿCᵣ pʳ qⁿ⁻ʳ, for n independent trials, success probability p, failure q = 1−p.

7. Common Counting Tools


• Permutation: arrangement where order matters — ⁿPᵣ = n! / (n−r)!
• Combination: selection where order doesn't matter — ⁿCᵣ = n! / [r!(n−r)!]
• These are frequently used to count favourable and total outcomes in probability problems.

Solved Example
Q. A bag has 4 red and 6 black balls. One ball is drawn at random. Find the probability it is red.
Total outcomes = 4 + 6 = 10, Favourable outcomes = 4
P(red) = 4/10 = 2/5

8. Common Mistakes to Avoid


• Confusing 'and' (intersection, multiply) with 'or' (union, add) when combining events.
• Forgetting to subtract P(A ∩ B) when events are not mutually exclusive.
• Treating dependent events as independent (or vice-versa) without checking the condition.

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