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Lecture Notes Ch.5 Example

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4 views2 pages

Lecture Notes Ch.5 Example

Uploaded by

dinawong0731
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Lecture Notes Ch.

5 Examples 2 and 3 combined:


Year Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
2015 78 49 69 112
2016 96 67 88 134
2017 115 92 102 149
2018 137 104 128 170

Year Quarter Quarterly Sales 4-period moving Centered Seasonal Variation


(in million) (y) Average Moving Average (t) 𝒔=𝒚−𝒕

2015 1 78
2 49
3 69
4 112
2016 1 96
2 67
3 88
4 134
2017 1 115
2 92
3 102
4 149
2018 1 137
2 104
3 128
4 170
Seasonal Variation
Seasonal Variation (s) Average of s
by Quarter (3 dp)

Quarter 1

Quarter 2

Quarter 3

Quarter 4

Adjustment =

Year Quarter Quarterly Sales Centered Seasonal Variation Predicted Error for
(in million) (y) Moving Average (t) by Quarter Quarterly Sales Prediction
2015 1 78
2 49
3 69
4 112
2016 1 96
2 67
3 88
4 134
2017 1 115
2 92
3 102
4 149
2018 1 137
2 104
3 128
4 170

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