Module 1

Fundamental Principle of Counting

Let us consider the following problem. Ali has 3 pants and 2 shirts. How many different pairs of a
pant and a shirt, can he dress up with?

There are 3 ways in which a pant can be chosen, because there are 3 pants available. Similarly, a
shirt can be chosen in 2 ways. For every choice of a pant, there are 2 choices of a shirt. Therefore,
there are 3 × 2 = 6 pairs of a pant and a shirt.

Multiplication Principle

“If an event can occur in m different ways, following which another event can occur in n different
ways, then the total number of occurrence of the events in the given order is m×n.”

The multiplication principle can be generalized for any finite number of events. For instance, for
3 events, the principle is as follows:

“If an event can occur in m different ways, following which another event can occur in n different
ways, following which a third event can occur in p different ways, then the total number of
occurrence to ‘the events in the given order is m × n × p.”

Example 1: Find the number of 4 letter words, with or without meaning, which can be formed
out of the letters of the word ROSE, where the repetition of the letters is not allowed.

Answer: 4*3*2*1 = 24 words

What if the repetition of the letters are allowed?

Example 2: Given 4 flags of different colors, how many different signals can be generated, if a
signal requires the use of 2 flags one below the other?

Answer: 4*3 = 12 signals

Example 3: How many 2 digit even numbers can be formed from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 if the
digits can be repeated?

Answer: 2*5 = 10 even numbers

Example 4: Find the number of different signals that can be generated by arranging at least 2 flags
in order (one below the other) on a vertical staff, if five different flags are available.

Answer: 20+60+120+120 = 320 signals

Practice Questions

Q1. How many 3-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 assuming that

(i) repetition of the digits is allowed (ii) repetition is not allowed

Q2. How many 3-digit even numbers can be formed from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 if the digits
can be repeated.

Q3. How many 4-letter code can be formed using the first 10 letters of the English alphabet, if
no letter can be repeated?

Q4. How many 5-digit telephone numbers can be constructed using the digits 0 to 9 if each
number starts with 67 and no digit appears more than once?

Q5. A coin is tossed 3 times and the outcomes are recorded. How many possible outcomes are
there?

Q6. Given 5 flags of different colors, how many different signals can be generated if each signal
requires the use of 2 flags, one below the other?

Permutations

A permutation is an arrangement in a definite order of a number of objects taken some or all at

a time.

Theorem 1: The number of permutations of n different objects taken r at a time, where 0 < r ≤ n
and the objects do not repeat is n (n-1) (n-2) . . . . . (n-r+1), which is denoted by

𝒏 𝑷𝒓

Factorial notation: The notation n! represents the product of first n natural numbers, i.e., the
product 1 × 2 × 3 × . . . × (n – 1) × n is denoted as n!. We read this symbol as ‘n factorial’. Thus, 1
× 2 × 3 × 4 . . . × (n – 1) × n = n !

0! = 1

5! = 5*4*3*2*1
𝒏!
𝒏𝑷𝒓 = (𝒏−𝒓)! where 0 < r ≤ n

Theorem 2: The number of permutations of n different objects taken r at a time, where repetition
is allowed, is nr.

Permutations when all the objects are not distinct objects

Suppose we have to find the number of ways of rearranging the letters of the word ROOT. In this
case, the letters of the word are not all different. There are 2 Os, which are of the same kind. Let
us treat, temporarily, the 2 Os as different, say, O 1 and O2. The number of permutations of 4
different letters, in this case, taken all at a time is 4!. Consider one of these permutations say,
RO1O2T. Corresponding to this permutation, we have 2 ! permutations RO 1O2T and RO2O1T which
will be exactly the same permutation if O1 and O2 are not treated as different, i.e., if O 1 and O2
are the same O at both places.
Theorem 3: The number of permutations of n objects, where p objects are of the same kind and
𝒏!
rest all are different = 𝒑!

Theorem 4: The number of permutations of n objects, where p 1 objects are of one kind, p 2 are of
second kind, ..., pk are of kth kind and the rest, if any, are of different kind is
𝒏!
𝒑𝟏 ! 𝒑𝟐 ! 𝒑𝟑 !. . . . . . 𝒑𝒌!

Example 1: Find the number of permutations of the letters of the word TOKYO.

Answer: 5!/2!

Example 2: How many 4-digit numbers can be formed by using the digits 1 to 9 if repetition of
digits is not allowed?

Answer: Here order matters, for example 1234 and 1324 are two different numbers. Therefore,
there will be as many 4 digit numbers as there are permutations of 9 different digits taken 4 at a
time. 𝟗𝒑𝟒

Example 3: How many numbers lying between 100 and 1000 can be formed with the digits 0, 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, if the repetition of the digits is not allowed?

Answer: required number = 100

Example 4: Find the number of different 8-letter arrangements that can be made from the letters
of the word DAUGHTER so that

(i) all vowels occur together (ii) all vowels do not occur together

Answer: (i) 4320 (ii) 36000

Example 5: In how many ways can 4 red, 3 yellow and 2 green discs be arranged in a row if the
discs of the same color are indistinguishable ?

Answer: 1260

Practice Questions

Q1. Find the number of arrangements of the letters of the word INDEPENDENCE. In how many of
these arrangements,

(i) do the words start with P

(ii) do all the vowels always occur together
(iii) do the vowels never occur together
(iv) do the words begin with I and end in P?

Q2. How many 3-digit numbers can be formed by using the digits 1 to 9 if no digit is repeated?
Q3. How many 4-digit numbers are there with no digit repeated?

Q4. How many 3-digit even numbers can be made using the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, if no digit is
repeated?

Q5. Find the number of 4-digit numbers that can be formed using the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 if no digit
is repeated. How many of these will be even?

Q6. From a committee of 8 persons, in how many ways can we choose a chairman and a vice
chairman assuming one person can not hold more than one position?

Q7. How many words, with or without meaning, can be formed using all the letters of the word
EQUATION, using each letter exactly once?

Q8. How many words, with or without meaning can be made from the letters of the word
MONDAY, assuming that no letter is repeated, if.

(i) 4 letters are used at a time (ii) all letters are used but first letter is a vowel?

Q9. In how many of the distinct permutations of the letters in MISSISSIPPI do the four I’s not come
together?

Q10. In how many ways can the letters of the word PERMUTATIONS be arranged if the

(i) words start with P and end with S (ii) there are always 4 letters between P and S?

Combinations

Let us now assume that there is a group of 3 lawn tennis players X, Y, Z. A team consisting of 2
players is to be formed. In how many ways can we do so? Is the team of X and Y different from
the team of Y and X ? Here, order is not important. In fact, there are only 3 possible ways in
which the team could be constructed.

Combination means selection and hence the order is not important.

𝒏 𝑪𝒓

Theorem 5: 𝒏𝑪𝒓 = 𝒏𝑷𝒓/r! , 0 < r ≤ n

Theorem 6: 𝒏𝑪𝒓 + 𝒏𝑪𝒓−𝟏 = 𝒏 + 𝟏𝑪𝒓

Example 1: A committee of 3 persons is to be constituted from a group of 2 men and 3 women.

In how many ways can this be done? How many of these committees would consist of 1 man
and 2 women?

Answer: 10, 6

Example 2: What is the number of ways of choosing 4 cards from a pack of 52 playing cards? In
how many of these
 (i) four cards are of the same suit (ii) four cards belong to four different suits
(iii) two are red cards and two are black cards (iv) are face cards

Answer: (i) 2860, (ii) 13^4, (iii) 105625, (iv) 495

Practice Questions

Q1. In how many ways can 5 girls and 3 boys be seated in a row so that no two boys are
together?

Q2. How many numbers greater than 1000000 can be formed by using the digits 1, 2, 0, 2, 4, 2,
4?

Q3. Find the number of words with or without meaning which can be made using all the letters
of the word AGAIN. If these words are written as in a dictionary, what will be the 50 th word?

Q4. A group consists of 4 girls and 7 boys. In how many ways can a team of 5 members be selected
if the team has (i) no girl ? (ii) at least one boy and one girl ? (iii) at least 3 girls?

Q5. How many words, with or without meaning, each of 3 vowels and 2 consonants can be formed
from the letters of the word INVOLUTE?

Q6. How many words, with or without meaning, each of 2 vowels and 3 consonants can be formed
from the letters of the word DAUGHTER?

Q7. How many words, with or without meaning, can be formed using all the letters of the word
EQUATION at a time so that the vowels and consonants occur together?

Q8. A committee of 7 has to be formed from 9 boys and 4 girls. In how many ways can this be
done when the committee consists of:

(i) exactly 3 girls ? (ii) at least 3 girls ?

Q9. How many 6-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9 which are divisible
by 10 and no digit is repeated?

Q10. It is required to seat 5 men and 4 women in a row so that the women occupy the even
places. How many such arrangements are possible?

Q11. From a class of 25 students, 10 are to be chosen for an excursion party. There are 3 students
who decide that either all of them will join or none of them will join. In how many ways can the
excursion party be chosen?

Q12. In how many ways can the letters of the word ASSASSINATION be arranged so that all the S’s
are together?
Probability – A Theoretical Approach

Suppose a coin is tossed at random

When we speak of a coin, we assume it to be ‘fair,’ that is, it is symmetrical so that there
is no reason for it to come down more often on one side than the other. We call this
property of the coin as being ‘unbiased.’ By the phrase ‘random toss,’ we mean that the
coin is allowed to fall freely without any bias or interference.

Each outcome is as likely to occur as the other. The outcomes head and tail are referred to as
‘equally likely.’

Classical Probability of an event E:

𝑷(𝑬) = Number of Outcomes favorable to Event E/ Number of all possible outcomes of the
experiment

We assume that the outcomes are equally likely.

Consider an experiment whose outcome is not predictable with certainty. However, although the
outcome of the experiment will not be known in advance, let us suppose that the set of all
possible outcomes is known. This set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is known as the
sample space of the experiment and is denoted by S.

Any subset E of the sample space is known as an event. In other words, an event is a set consisting
of outcomes of the experiment. If the outcome of the experiment is contained in E, then we say
that E has occurred.

Consider the experiment of tossing a coin two times. An associated sample space is S = {HH, HT,
TH, TT}.

Suppose that we are interested in those outcomes which correspond to the occurrence of exactly
one head. HT and TH are the only elements of S corresponding to the occurrence of this event.
Description of Events Corresponding Subset of S
Number of tails is exactly 2 A = {TT}
Number of tails is at least one B = {HT, TH, TT}
Number of heads is at most one C = {HT, TH, TT}
Second toss is not head D = { HT, TT}
Number of tails is at most two S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

Types of Events

Impossible and Sure Events: The empty set φ and the sample space S describe events. In fact φ
is called an impossible event and S, i.e., the whole sample space is called the sure event.

Consider the experiment of rolling a die. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Let E be the event “ the number appears on the die is a multiple of 7”. No outcome satisfies the
condition given in the event, i.e., no element of the sample space ensures the occurrence of the
event E. Thus, the empty set only correspond to the event E. In other words we can say that it is
impossible to have a multiple of seven on the upper face of the die. Thus, the event E = φ is an
impossible event.

Simple Event: If an event E has only one sample point of a sample space, it is called a simple (or
elementary) event.

In a sample space containing n distinct elements, there are exactly n simple events.

For example in the experiment of tossing two coins, a sample space is:

S={HH, HT, TH, TT}

There are four simple events corresponding to this sample space. These are:

E1= {HH}, E2={HT}, E3= { TH} and E4={TT}

Compound Events: If an event has more than one sample point, it is called a Compound event.

For example, in the experiment of “tossing a coin thrice” the events

E: ‘Exactly one head appeared’

F: ‘At least one head appeared’

G: ‘At most one head appeared’

are all compound events. The subsets of S associated with these events are

E={HTT,THT,TTH}

F={HTT,THT, TTH, HHT, HTH, THH, HHH}

G= {TTT, THT, HTT, TTH}

Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events A and B are called mutually exclusive events if the
occurrence of any one of them excludes the occurrence of the other event, i.e., if they cannot
occur simultaneously. In this case the sets A and B are disjoint.

Simple events of a sample space are always mutually exclusive.

Exhaustive Events: Consider the experiment of throwing a die. We have S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let
us define the following events

A: ‘a number less than 4 appears’,

B: ‘a number greater than 2 but less than 5 appears’

and C: ‘a number greater than 4 appears’.

Then A = {1, 2, 3}, B = {3,4} and C = {5, 6}.

A ∪ B ∪ C = {1, 2, 3} ∪ {3, 4} ∪ {5, 6} = S.

Such events A, B and C are called exhaustive events. In general, if E1, E2, ..., En are n events of a
sample space S and if
𝑛

⋃ 𝐸𝑖 = 𝑆
𝑖=1

then E1, E2, ..., En are called exhaustive events. In other words, events E1, E2, ..., E n

are said to be exhaustive if at least one of them necessarily occurs whenever the experiment is
performed.

Algebra of Events

For any two events E and F of a sample space S, we define the new event 𝑬 ∪ 𝑭 to consist of all
outcomes that are either in E or in F or in both E and F. The event 𝑬 ∪ 𝑭 is called the union of
the event E and event F. Similarly, for any two events E and F, we may also define the new event
E ∩ F, called the intersection of E and F, to consist of all outcomes that are both in E and in F.

Finally, for any event E, we define the new event Ec, referred to as the complement of E, to consist
of all outcomes in the sample space S that are not in E. That is, Ec will occur if and only if E does
not occur.

𝑷(𝑬) + 𝑷(𝑬𝒄 ) = 𝟏

For any two events E and F, if all of the outcomes in E are also in F, then we say that E is contained
in F, or E is a subset of F, and write E ⊂ F.

Graphical representation
The operations of forming unions, intersections, and complements of events obey certain rules.

Commutative rules: E ∪ F = F ∪ E EF = FE

Associative rules: (E ∪ F) ∪ G = E ∪ (F ∪ G) (EF)G = E(FG)

Distributive rules: (E ∪ F)G = EG ∪ FG EF ∪ G = (E ∪ G)(F ∪ G)

DeMorgan’s Laws:

Axioms of Probability

One way of defining the probability of an event is in terms of its relative frequency. Such a
definition usually goes as follows: We suppose that an experiment, whose sample space is S, is
repeatedly performed under exactly the same conditions. For each event E of the sample space
S, we define n(E) to be the number of times in the first n repetitions of the experiment that the
event E occurs. Then P(E), the probability of the event E, is defined as

P(E) is defined as the (limiting) proportion of time that E occurs. It is thus the limiting frequency
of E.

Modern Approach to Probability

Consider an experiment whose sample space is S. For each event E of the sample space S, we
assume that a number P(E) is defined and satisfies the following three axioms:

Axiom 1: It states that the probability that the outcome of the experiment is an outcome in E is
some number between 0 and 1.

0 ≤ 𝑷(𝑬) ≤ 𝟏

Axiom 2: It states that, with probability 1, the outcome will be a point in the sample space S.

P(S) = 1

Axiom 3: It states that, for any sequence of mutually exclusive events, the probability of at least
one of these events occurring is just the sum of their respective probabilities.
For any sequence of mutually exclusive events E 1, E2, E3, E4, . . . . . . . . . , En

Probability of Union of Events (E ∪ 𝑭)

𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐹) − 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹)

For three events 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹 ∪ 𝐺 ) =

𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐹) + 𝑃(𝐺) − 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) − 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐺) − 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐺) + 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ∩ 𝐺)

Example 1: Find the probability of getting a head when a coin is tossed once. Also find the
probability of getting a tail.

Answer: In the experiment of tossing a coin once, the number of possible outcomes is two —
Head (H) and Tail (T). Let E be the event ‘getting a head’. The number of outcomes favorable to
E, (i.e., of getting a head) is 1. Therefore,

P(E) = P (head) = Number of outcomes favorable to E/ Number of all possible outcomes = ½

Example 2: A bag contains a red ball, a blue ball, and a yellow ball, all the balls being of the same
size. Kritika takes out a ball from the bag without looking into it. What is the probability that she
takes out the

(i) yellow ball? (ii) red ball?

Answer: (i) 1/3 (ii) 1/3

An event having only one outcome of the experiment is called an elementary event. The sum of
the probabilities of all the elementary events of an experiment is one.

Example 3: Suppose we throw a die once. (i) What is the probability of getting a number greater
than 4 ? (ii) What is the probability of getting a number less than or equal to 4 ?

Answer: (i) 1/3 (ii) 2/3

Here the events are complementary to each other.

Example 4: One card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Calculate the probability
that the card will

(i) be an ace (ii) not be an ace

Answer: (i) 1/13 (ii) 12/13

Example 5: Two players, Sangeeta and Reshma, play a tennis match. It is known that the
probability of Sangeeta winning the match is 0.62. What is the probability of Reshma winning the
match?

Answer: P(R) = 0.38

Example 6: Iman and Hamida are friends. What is the probability that both will have (i) different
birthdays? (ii) the same birthday? (ignoring a leap year).

Answer: (i) 364/365 (ii) 1/365

Example 7: There are 40 students in Class X of a school of whom 25 are girls and 15 are boys. The
class teacher has to select one student as a class representative. She writes the name of each
student on a separate card, the cards being identical. Then she puts cards in a bag and stirs them
thoroughly. She then draws one card from the bag. What is the probability that the name written
on the card is the name of (i) a girl? (ii) a boy?

Answer: (i) 5/8 (ii) 3/8

Example 8: A box contains 3 blue, 2 white, and 4 red marbles. If a marble is drawn at random
from the box, what is the probability that it will be

(i) white? (ii) blue? (iii) red?

Answer: (i) 2/9 (ii) 1/3 (iii) 4/9

Example 9: A carton consists of 100 shirts of which 88 are good, 8 have minor defects and 4 have
major defects. Jimmy, a trader, will only accept the shirts which are good, but Sujatha, another
trader, will only reject the shirts which have major defects. One shirt is drawn at random from the
carton. What is the probability that

(i) it is acceptable to Jimmy?

(ii) it is acceptable to Sujatha?

Answer: (i) 0.88 (ii) 0.96

Example 10: Two dice are thrown and the sum of the numbers which come up on the

dice is noted. Let us consider the following events associated with this experiment

A: ‘the sum is even’.

B: ‘the sum is a multiple of 3’.

C: ‘the sum is less than 4’.

D: ‘the sum is greater than 11’.

Which pairs of these events are mutually exclusive?

Answer: C and D.

Example 11: A coin is tossed three times, consider the following events.

A: ‘No head appears,’ B: ‘Exactly one head appears’ and C: ‘At least two heads appear’.

Do they form a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events?

Answer: Yes

Example 12: One card is drawn from a well shuffled deck of fifty-two cards. If each outcome is
equally likely, calculate the probability that the card will be

(i) a diamond (ii) not an ace (iii) a black card (i.e., a club or, a spade) (iv) not a diamond

(v) not a black card.

Answer: (i) ¼ (ii) 12/13 (iii) ½ (iv) ¾ (v) ½

Example 13: Two students Anil and Ashima appeared in an examination. The probability that Anil
will qualify the examination is 0.05 and that Ashima will qualify the examination is 0.10. The
probability that both will qualify the examination is 0.02. Find the probability that

(a) Both Anil and Ashima will not qualify the examination.

(b) At least one of them will not qualify the examination and

(c) Only one of them will qualify the examination.

Answer: (a) 0.87 (b) 0.98 (c) 0.11

Example 14: A committee of two persons is selected from two men and two women. What is
the probability that the committee will have (a) no man? (b) one man? (c) two men?

Answer: (a) 1/6 (b) 2/3 (c) 1/6

Practice Questions

Q1. It is given that in a group of 3 students, the probability of 2 students not having the same
birthday is 0.992. What is the probability that the 2 students have the same birthday?

Q2. A bag contains 3 red balls and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random from the bag. What is
the probability that the ball drawn is (i) red ? (ii) not red?

Q3. A box contains 5 red marbles, 8 white marbles and 4 green marbles. One marble is taken out
of the box at random. What is the probability that the marble taken out will be (i) red ? (ii) white
? (iii) not green?
Q4. 12 defective pens are accidentally mixed with 132 good ones. It is not possible to just look at
a pen and tell whether or not it is defective. One pen is taken out at random from this lot.
Determine the probability that the pen taken out is a good one.

Q5. A lot of 20 bulbs contain 4 defective ones. One bulb is drawn at random from the lot. What is
the probability that this bulb is defective?

Q6. A box contains 90 discs which are numbered from 1 to 90. If one disc is drawn at random from
the box, find the probability that it bears (i) a two-digit number (ii) a perfect square number (iii)
a number divisible by 5.

Q7. Suppose you drop a die at random on the rectangular region shown below. What is the
probability that it will land inside the circle with diameter 1m?

Q8. A lot consists of 144 ball pens of which 20 are defective and the others are good. Nuri will
buy a pen if it is good but will not buy if it is defective. The shopkeeper draws one pen at random
and gives it to her. What is the probability that

(i) She will buy it. (ii) She will not buy it.

Q9. A game consists of tossing a one rupee coin 3 times and noting its outcome each time. Hanif
wins if all the tosses give the same result i.e., three heads or three tails, and loses otherwise.
Calculate the probability that Hanif will lose the game.

Q10. A die is thrown twice. What is the probability that

(i) 5 will not come up either time? (ii) 5 will come up at least once?

Q10. A box contains 10 red marbles, 20 blue marbles and 30 green marbles. 5 marbles are drawn
from the box, what is the probability that

(i) all will be blue. (ii) at least one will be green.

Q11. In a certain lottery 10,000 tickets are sold and ten equal prizes are awarded. What is the
probability of not getting a prize if you buy (a) one ticket (b) two tickets (c) 10 tickets.

Q12. Out of 100 students, two sections of 40 and 60 are formed. If you and your friend

are among the 100 students, what is the probability that

(a) you both enter the same section?

(b) you both enter the different sections?

Q13. Three letters are dictated to three persons and an envelope is addressed to each of them,
the letters are inserted into the envelopes at random so that each envelope contains exactly one
letter. Find the probability that at least one letter is in its proper envelope.

Q14. If 4-digit numbers greater than 5,000 are randomly formed from the digits 0, 1, 3, 5, and 7,
what is the probability of forming a number divisible by 5 when, (i) the digits are repeated? (ii)
the repetition of digits is not allowed.

Q15. The number lock of a suitcase has 4 wheels, each labelled with ten digits i.e., from 0 to 9.
The lock opens with a sequence of four digits with no repeats. What is the probability of a person
getting the right sequence to open the suitcase?

Conditional Probability

Consider the experiment of tossing three fair coins. The sample space of the experiment is

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}

Let E be the event ‘at least two heads appear’ and F be the event ‘first coin shows tail’. Then

E = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}

and F = {THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

P(E) = ½ P(F) = ½

Also, 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = {THH}

P (𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 1/8

Suppose it is given that the first coin shows tail, i.e., F occurs, then what is the probability of
occurrence of E?

With the information of occurrence of F, it is certain that the cases in which first coin does not
result into a tail should not be considered while finding the probability of E. This information
reduces the sample space from the set S to its subset F for the event E.

The sample point of F which is favorable to event E is THH. P(E) = ¼

This probability of the event E is called the conditional probability of E given that F has already
occurred and is denoted by P (E|F).

The elements of F which favor the event E are the common elements of E and F, i.e., the sample
points of E ∩ F.
 P (E|F) = (Number of elementary events favorable to E ∩ F)/(Number of elementary events
which are favorable to F)

= n(E ∩ F)/n(F)
𝑛(𝐸∩𝐹)
𝑛(𝑠)
P(E/F) = 𝑛(𝐹) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F)
𝑛(s)

Definition: If E and F are two events associated with the same sample space of a random
experiment, the conditional probability of the event E given that F has occurred, i.e., P (E|F) is
given by

P(E/F) = P(E ∩ F)/P(F) provided P(F) ≠ 0

Properties of conditional probability

1. If A and B are any two events of a sample space S and F is an event of S such that P(F) ≠ 0,
then

P((A ∪ B)|F) = P(A/F) + P(B/F) – P((A ∩ B)/F)

2. P(𝑬𝒄 /𝑭) = 1 − P(E/F)

Example 1: A family has two children. What is the probability that both the children are boys
given that at least one of them is a boy?

Answer: 1/3

Example 2: Ten cards numbered 1 to 10 are placed in a box, mixed up thoroughly and then one
card is drawn randomly. If it is known that the number on the drawn card is more than 3, what is
the probability that it is an even number?

Answer: 4/7

Example 3: In a school, there are 1000 students, out of which 430 are girls. It is known that out
of 430, 10% of the girls study in class XII. What is the probability that a student chosen randomly
studies in Class XII given that the chosen student is a girl?

Answer: 0.1

Example 4: A die is thrown three times. Events A and B are defined as below:

A : 4 on the third throw

B : 6 on the first and 5 on the second throw

Find the probability of A given that B has already occurred.

Answer: 1/6

Example 5: A die is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed to be 6.
What is the conditional probability that the number 4 has appeared at least once?

Answer: 2/5

Example 6: Consider the experiment of tossing a coin. If the coin shows head, toss it again but if
it shows tail, then throw a die. Find the conditional probability of the event that ‘the die shows a
number greater than 4’ given that ‘there is at least one tail’.

Answer: 2/9

Example 7: An ordinary deck of 52 playing cards is randomly divided into 4 piles of 13 cards each.
Compute the probability that each pile has exactly 1 ace.

Answer: 0.105

Practice Questions

Q1. Given that the two numbers appearing on throwing two dice are different. Find the
probability of the event ‘the sum of numbers on the dice is 4’.

Q2. An instructor has a question bank consisting of 300 easy True / False questions, 200 difficult
True / False questions, 500 easy multiple choice questions and 400 difficult multiple choice
questions. If a question is selected at random from the question bank, what is the probability that
it will be an easy question given that it is a multiple choice question?

Q3. Assume that each born child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl. If a family has two children,
what is the conditional probability that both are girls given that (i) the youngest is a girl, (ii) at
least one is a girl?

Q4. A black and a red dice are rolled.

(a) Find the conditional probability of obtaining a sum greater than 9, given that the black die
resulted in a 5.

(b) Find the conditional probability of obtaining the sum 8, given that the red die resulted in a
number less than 4.

Q5. Consider the experiment of throwing a die, if a multiple of 3 comes up, throw the die again
and if any other number comes, toss a coin. Find the conditional probability of the event ‘the coin
shows a tail,’ given that ‘at least one die shows a 3’.
 Multiplication Theorem on Probability

Let E and F be two events associated with a sample space S. The set E ∩ F denotes the event that
both E and F have occurred. In other words, E ∩ F denotes the simultaneous occurrence of the
events E and F. The event E ∩ F is also written as EF.

P (E ∩ F) = P(E/F) * P(F), P(F) ≠ 0

If E, F and G are three events of sample space, we have

P(E ∩ F ∩ G) = P(E)* P(F|E) *P(G|(E ∩ F)) = P(E)* P(F|E)* P(G|EF)

Example 1: An urn contains 10 black and 5 white balls. Two balls are drawn from the urn one after
the other without replacement. What is the probability that both drawn balls are black?

Answer: 3/7

Example 2: Three cards are drawn successively, without replacement from a pack of 52 well
shuffled cards. What is the probability that first two cards are kings and the third card drawn is
an ace?

Answer: 2/5525

Independent Events

Let E and F be two events associated with the same random experiment, then E and F are said to
be independent if

P(E ∩ F) = P(E) * P(F)

P(F|E) = P (F) provided P (E) ≠ 0 and

P (E|F) = P (E) provided P (F) ≠ 0

Example 1: A die is thrown. If E is the event ‘the number appearing is a multiple of 3’ and F be
the event ‘the number appearing is even’ then find whether E and F are independent ?

Answer: Independent events

Example 2: An unbiased die is thrown twice. Let the event A be ‘odd number on the first throw’
and B the event ‘odd number on the second throw’. Check the independence of the events A and
B.

Answer: Independent events

Example 3: Three coins are tossed simultaneously. Consider the event E ‘three heads or three
tails,’ F ‘at least two heads’ and G ‘at most two heads’. Of the pairs (E,F), (E,G) and (F,G), which
are independent? which are dependent?
Answer: E and F are independent events E and G are dependent events

Practice Questions

Q1. Two cards are drawn at random and without replacement from a pack of 52 playing cards.
Find the probability that both the cards are black.

Q2. A box of oranges is inspected by examining three randomly selected oranges drawn without
replacement. If all the three oranges are good, the box is approved for sale, otherwise, it is
rejected. Find the probability that a box containing 15 oranges out of which 12 are good and 3
are bad ones will be approved for sale.

Q3. A fair coin and an unbiased die are tossed. Let A be the event ‘head appears on the coin’ and
B be the event ‘3 on the die’. Check whether A and B are independent events or not.

Q4. A die marked 1, 2, 3 in red and 4, 5, 6 in green is tossed. Let A be the event, ‘the number is
even,’ and B be the event, ‘the number is red’. Are A and B independent?

Q5. A die is tossed thrice. Find the probability of getting an odd number at least once.

Q6. Two balls are drawn at random with replacement from a box containing 10 black and 8 red
balls. Find the probability that

(i) both balls are red. (ii) first ball is black and second is red. (iii) one of them is black and
other is red.

Q7. Probability of solving specific problems independently by A and B are ½ and 1/3 respectively.
If both try to solve the problem independently, find the probability that (i) the problem is solved;
(ii) exactly one of them solves the problem.

Q8. In a hostel, 60% of the students read Hindi newspaper, 40% read English newspaper and 20%
read both Hindi and English newspapers. A student is selected at random.

(a) Find the probability that she reads neither Hindi nor English newspapers.

(b) If she reads Hindi newspaper, find the probability that she reads English newspaper.

(c) If she reads English newspaper, find the probability that she reads Hindi newspaper.

Bayes’ Theorem

Consider that there are two bags I and II. Bag I contains 2 white and 3 red balls and Bag II contains
4 white and 5 red balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags. The probability of
selecting any of the bags or probability of drawing a ball of a particular color from a particular bag
can be easily found. But can the probability that the ball drawn is from a particular bag be
found, if the color of the ball drawn is given?
Partition of a sample space

A set of events E1, E2, ..., En is said to represent a partition of the sample space S if

(a) Ei ∩ Ej = φ, i ≠ j, i, j = 1, 2, 3, ..., n

(b) E1 ∪ Ε2 ∪ ... ∪ En= S and

(c) P(Ei) > 0 for all i = 1, 2, ..., n.

In other words, the events E1, E2, ..., En represent a partition of the sample space S if they are
pairwise disjoint, exhaustive and have nonzero probabilities.

Theorem of Total Probability

Let {E1, E2,...,En} be a partition of the sample space S, and suppose that each of the events E 1,
E2,..., En has nonzero probability of occurrence. Let A be any event associated with S, then

P(A) = P(E1) P(A/E1) + P(E2) P(A/E2) + ... + P(En) P(A/En)

𝒏
P(A) = ෍ 𝑷൫𝑬𝒋 ൯ ∗ 𝑷൫𝑨ȁ𝑬𝒋 ൯
𝒋=𝟏

Bayes’ Theorem: If E1, E2 ,..., En are n non empty events which constitute a partition of sample
space S, i.e., E1, E2 ,..., En are pairwise disjoint and E 1∪ E2∪ ... ∪ En = S and A is any event of nonzero
probability, then
𝑃(𝐸𝑖 )𝑃(𝐴∕𝐸𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐸𝑖 ∕ 𝐴) = 𝑛 for any i = 1, 2, 3, . . . . . . , n
෍ 𝑃൫𝐸𝑗 ൯𝑃൫𝐴∕𝐸𝑗 ൯
𝑗=1

Terminologies used when Bayes’ Theorem is applied:

The events E1, E2, ..., En are called hypotheses.

The probability P(Ei) is called the priori probability of the hypothesis Ei

The conditional probability P(Ei |A) is called a posteriori probability of the hypothesis Ei.

Example 1: Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls while another Bag II contains 5 red and 6 black
balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be red. Find the
probability that it was drawn from Bag II.
Answer: 35/68

Example 2: Given three identical boxes I, II and III, each containing two coins. In box I, both coins
are gold coins, in box II, both are silver coins and in the box III, there is one gold and one silver
coin. A person chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the
probability that the other coin in the box is also of gold?

Answer: 2/3

Example 3: Suppose that the reliability of a HIV test is specified as follows: Of people having HIV,
90% of the test detect the disease but 10% go undetected. Of people free of HIV, 99% of the test
are judged HIV –ve but 1% are diagnosed as showing HIV +ve. From a large population of which
only 0.1% have HIV, one person is selected at random, given the HIV test, and the pathologist
reports him/her as HIV +ve. What is the probability that the person actually has HIV?

Answer: 0.083

Example 4: In a factory which manufactures bolts, machines A, B and C manufacture respectively

25%, 35% and 40% of the bolts. Of their outputs, 5, 4 and 2 percent are respectively defective
bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What is the
probability that it is manufactured by the machine B?

Answer: 28/69

Example 5: A doctor is to visit a patient. From the past experience, it is known that the
probabilities that he will come by train, bus, scooter or by other means of transport are
respectively 3/10, 1/5, 1/10, and 2/5 respectively. The probabilities that the doctor will be late
are ¼, 1/3, and 1/12, if he comes by train, bus, and scooter respectively, but if he comes by other
means of transport, then he will not be late. When he arrives, he is late. What is the probability
that he comes by train?

Answer: ½

Example 6: A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that it is
a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six.

Answer: 3/8

Example 7: A person has undertaken a construction job. The probabilities are 0.65 that there will
be strike, 0.80 that the construction job will be completed on time if there is no strike, and 0.32
that the construction job will be completed on time if there is a strike. Determine the probability
that the construction job will be completed on time.

Answer: 0.488
Practice Questions

Q1. An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random, its color is noted and is
returned to the urn. Moreover, 2 additional balls of the color drawn are put in the urn and then
a ball is drawn at random. What is the probability that the second ball is red?

Q2. A bag contains 4 red and 4 black balls, another bag contains 2 red and 6 black balls. One of
the two bags is selected at random and a ball is drawn from the bag which is found to be red. Find
the probability that the ball is drawn from the first bag.

Q3. Of the students in a college, it is known that 60% reside in hostel and 40% are day scholars
(not residing in hostel). Previous year results report that 30% of all students who reside in hostel
attain A grade and 20% of day scholars attain A grade in their annual examination. At the end of
the year, one student is chosen at random from the college and he has an A grade, what is the
probability that the student is a hostlier?

Q4. In answering a question on a multiple choice test, a student either knows the answer or
guesses. Let ¾ be the probability that he knows the answer and ¼ be the probability that he
guesses. Assuming that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability ¼.
What is the probability that the student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly?

Q5. A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when it is in fact,
present. However, the test also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the healthy person tested
(i.e., if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability 0.005, the test will imply he has the
disease). If 0.1 percent of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability that a
person has the disease given that his test result is positive?

Q6. There are three coins. One is a two headed coin (having head on both faces), another is a
biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the time and third is an unbiased coin. One of the three
coins is chosen at random and tossed, it shows heads, what is the probability that it was the two
headed coin?

Q7. An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers.
The probability of an accidents are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured persons
meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver?

Q8. A factory has two machines A and B. Past record shows that machine A produced 60% of the
items of output and machine B produced 40% of the items. Further, 2% of the items produced by
machine A and 1% produced by machine B were defective. All the items are put into one stockpile
and then one item is chosen at random from this and is found to be defective. What is the
probability that it was produced by machine B?

Q9. Two groups are competing for the position on the Board of directors of a corporation. The
probabilities that the first and the second groups will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. Further, if
the first group wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0.7 and the corresponding
probability is 0.3 if the second group wins. Find the probability that the new product introduced
was by the second group.

Q10. Suppose a girl throws a die. If she gets a 5 or 6, she tosses a coin three times and notes the
number of heads. If she gets 1, 2, 3 or 4, she tosses a coin once and notes whether a head or tail
is obtained. If she obtained exactly one head, what is the probability that she threw 1, 2, 3 or 4
with the die?

Q11. A manufacturer has three machine operators A, B and C. The first operator A produces 1%
defective items, whereas the other two operators B and C produce 5% and 7% defective items
respectively. A is on the job for 50% of the time, B is on the job for 30% of the time and C is on
the job for 20% of the time. A defective item is produced, what is the probability that it was
produced by A?

Q12. A card from a pack of 52 cards is lost. From the remaining cards of the pack, two cards are
drawn and are found to be both diamonds. Find the probability of the lost card being a diamond.

Q13. A and B throw a die alternatively till one of them gets a ‘6’ and wins the game. Find their
respective probabilities of winning if A starts first.

Q14. If a machine is correctly set up, it produces 90% acceptable items. If it is incorrectly set up,
it produces only 40% acceptable items. Past experience shows that 80% of the set ups are
correctly done. If after a certain set up, the machine produces 2 acceptable items, find the
probability that the machine is correctly set up.

Q15. Suppose that 90% of people are right-handed. What is the probability that at most 6 of a
random sample of 10 people are right-handed?

Q16. If a leap year is selected at random, what is the chance that it will contain 53 Tuesdays?

Q17. Assume that the chances of a patient having a heart attack is 40%. It is also assumed that a
meditation and yoga course reduce the risk of heart attack by 30% and prescription of certain
drug reduces its chances by 25%. At a time, a patient can choose any one of the two options with
equal probabilities. It is given that after going through one of the two options the patient selected
at random suffers a heart attack. Find the probability that the patient followed a course of
meditation and yoga?

Q18. If each element of a second order determinant is either zero or one, what is the probability
that the value of the determinant is positive? (Assume that the individual entries of the
determinant are chosen independently, each value being assumed with probability ½).

Q19. Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls and Bag II contains 4 red and 5 black balls. One ball is
transferred from Bag I to Bag II and then a ball is drawn from Bag II. The ball drawn so is found to
be red in color. Find the probability that the transferred ball is black.