Ongoing Middle East Conflict: US – Israel – Iran and Other Powers

Introduction: Why the Middle East Matters

The Middle East is one of the most strategically important regions in the world because it
lies at the intersection of energy resources, global trade routes, religion, and geopolitics. A
large share of the world’s oil and gas passes through this region, especially through the Strait
of Hormuz. Any instability in the region immediately affects oil prices and the global
economy.

The region is also important because it connects Asia, Europe, and Africa. Important sea
routes such as the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and Suez Canal pass through this region. The
Middle East also holds religious importance for Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, which makes
many conflicts emotionally and politically sensitive worldwide.

The ongoing conflict involving Israel, Iran, and the United States is therefore not just a
regional issue but a matter of global concern.

Roots of Iran–Israel Rivalry

Before 1979, Iran and Israel had relatively cooperative relations. Iran was ruled by Shah
Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who maintained close ties with the United States and had covert
cooperation with Israel.

The rivalry began after the Islamic Revolution of 1979 led by Ayatollah Khomeini. Iran
became an Islamic Republic and adopted a strong anti-Israel ideology. Iran declared support
for the Palestinian cause and cut diplomatic relations with Israel.

Since then, Israel has considered Iran a major security threat because of:

●​ Iran’s nuclear program

●​ Iran’s missile capabilities
●​ Iran’s support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas

This rivalry gradually evolved into a “shadow war” involving cyber attacks, assassinations,
airstrikes, and proxy conflicts.

Iran’s Nuclear Program

Iran’s nuclear program began in the 1950s under the “Atoms for Peace” initiative supported
by the United States. Iran claims that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes such as
electricity generation and scientific research.

However, many countries including Israel and the United States fear that Iran may develop
nuclear weapons. The main concern is uranium enrichment because highly enriched
uranium can be used to build nuclear bombs.

To stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions, economic sanctions were imposed on Iran. In 2015, the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed between Iran and major world
powers.

Under the agreement:

●​ Iran agreed to limit uranium enrichment

●​ International inspections were allowed
●​ Sanctions on Iran were eased

In 2018, the United States withdrew from the agreement and reimposed sanctions. Iran then
resumed enrichment activities, increasing regional tensions.

Israel strongly opposes Iran’s nuclear program and fears that a nuclear Iran would threaten
its existence.

Iran’s Proxy Network – Axis of Resistance

Iran generally avoids direct war with stronger military powers. Instead, it uses proxy warfare
through allied militant groups across the Middle East. This network is known as the “Axis of
Resistance.”

Major Groups in the Axis of Resistance

Hezbollah in Lebanon

A powerful Iran-backed Shia militant group with large missile capabilities targeting Israel.

Hamas in Gaza

A Palestinian militant and political organization controlling Gaza and engaged in conflict with
Israel.

Shia Militias in Iraq and Syria

Groups aligned with Iran that have targeted US military bases.

Houthis in Yemen

A rebel group supported by Iran that has launched drone and missile attacks and targeted
ships in the Red Sea.

This strategy allows Iran to expand influence, pressure Israel and the US, and avoid direct
conventional war.

Israel–Hamas War and Regional Escalation

The present escalation intensified after Hamas launched a large-scale attack on Israel
involving rockets, infiltration, and hostage-taking.

Israel responded with major military operations in Gaza aimed at:

●​ Destroying Hamas infrastructure

●​ Rescuing hostages
●​ Restoring deterrence

The conflict gradually expanded beyond Gaza.

Regional Escalation Included

●​ Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon

●​ Iraqi militias attacking US bases
●​ Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea

This transformed the conflict from a local war into a wider regional crisis involving multiple
state and non-state actors.

Why the United States Supports Israel

The United States supports Israel because Israel is America’s closest strategic ally in the
Middle East.

Reasons Include

●​ Strong defence and intelligence cooperation

●​ Shared democratic values
●​ Counterbalancing Iran and hostile groups
●​ Maintaining US influence in the region
The US also sees Israel as an important security partner in maintaining regional stability.

Why Russia and China Are Not Directly Involved

Russia and China are avoiding direct military involvement because they do not want a larger
confrontation with the United States.

Russia is already heavily engaged in the Russia-Ukraine War and does not want another
costly military front.

China focuses more on trade, economic expansion, and energy security. Both countries
prefer diplomatic influence rather than direct military confrontation.

They support regional stability because instability affects global trade and energy markets.

Why the United Nations Failed to Stop the War

The United Nations has limitations in stopping major wars when powerful countries
disagree.

Main Reasons Include

●​ Veto power in the UN Security Council

●​ Conflicting interests of major powers
●​ Lack of independent military enforcement capability
●​ Complex proxy warfare involving many actors

The UN can facilitate dialogue and humanitarian support, but it cannot impose peace when
global powers themselves are divided.

Why the US Could Not Fully Tackle Iran

Despite military superiority, the US struggled to fully neutralize Iran because Iran uses
asymmetric warfare.

Iran relies on:

●​ Proxy groups
●​ Missile attacks
●​ Drone warfare
●​ Cyber operations
●​ Strategic geography
The US also wanted to avoid another long and costly war like Iraq because a full-scale
invasion could destabilize the entire Middle East and damage the global economy.

Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. Around one-fifth
of global oil trade passes through this narrow route.

Iran’s location near the Strait gives it strategic leverage because it can threaten shipping
routes through:

●​ Naval mines
●​ Missile attacks
●​ Fast attack boats
●​ Drone operations

Even the possibility of disruption increases global oil prices and pressures countries
dependent on Gulf oil supplies.

Israel’s Policy of Nuclear Ambiguity

Israel follows a policy known as “nuclear ambiguity” or “nuclear opacity.”

This means Israel neither officially confirms nor denies possessing nuclear weapons.

Purpose of This Policy

●​ To create deterrence against enemies

●​ To avoid diplomatic pressure
●​ To maintain strategic uncertainty

Many experts believe Israel possesses nuclear weapons, but Israel has never officially
declared it.

Israel has also not officially signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
as a non-nuclear state.

India’s Interests in the Middle East

The Middle East is extremely important for India because of energy security, trade, diaspora,
and strategic connectivity.

India imports a major portion of its crude oil from Gulf countries such as:
 ●​ Saudi Arabia
●​ Iraq
●​ UAE
●​ Kuwait

Millions of Indians live and work in Gulf countries and send large remittances back to India.

India also has:

●​ Strong defence cooperation with Israel

●​ Strategic ties with Iran through Chabahar Port
●​ Economic partnerships with Gulf countries

India therefore follows a balanced and multi-aligned foreign policy in the region.

India supports:

●​ Peaceful resolution of conflicts

●​ Dialogue and diplomacy
●​ Regional stability
●​ Two-state solution in the Israel–Palestine issue

Can the Conflict Turn Into a Nuclear War?

A direct nuclear war is unlikely but cannot be completely ruled out if the conflict escalates
uncontrollably.

Reasons Why Nuclear War Is Unlikely

●​ Major powers understand catastrophic consequences

●​ Nuclear deterrence discourages direct war
●​ International diplomacy continues

Risks Still Remain Because

●​ Iran’s nuclear program continues

●​ Israel possesses strategic deterrence capability
●​ Miscalculation during escalation can increase danger

The greatest danger is often unintended escalation rather than intentional nuclear war.

India’s Overall Stance

India follows a balanced and cautious approach.

India:

●​ Condemns terrorism
●​ Supports peaceful resolution
●​ Maintains relations with Israel, Iran, Arab countries, and the US
●​ Prioritizes energy security and protection of Indian citizens abroad

India’s policy is based on strategic autonomy and national interest rather than bloc politics.

Way Forward

Long-term stability in the Middle East requires:

●​ Revival of nuclear negotiations with Iran

●​ Reduction of proxy warfare
●​ Diplomatic engagement between Iran and Israel
●​ Addressing the Israel–Palestine issue
●​ Regional dialogue among Middle Eastern countries
●​ Stronger role of international institutions such as the UN and IAEA
●​ Protection of maritime trade routes

India and other middle powers can play a constructive role by supporting diplomacy and
regional stability.

Important Interview Questions and Model Answers

Why does the US support Israel?

The US supports Israel because Israel is America’s closest strategic ally in the Middle East
with strong defence, intelligence, and geopolitical cooperation.

Why are Russia and China not directly entering the war?

They want to protect economic and strategic interests without entering a costly military
conflict with the United States.

Why has the UN failed to stop the conflict?

The UN lacks independent enforcement power and major powers in the Security Council
have conflicting interests.
Why could the US not fully defeat Iran?

Iran used asymmetric warfare through proxy groups, drones, missiles, and strategic
geography instead of conventional warfare.

How does the Strait of Hormuz help Iran?

Iran’s position near the Strait allows it to threaten global oil supply routes, increasing oil
prices and strategic pressure.

Can this conflict become World War III?

The risk exists if escalation spreads, but major powers are currently trying to avoid direct
global confrontation.

What is Israel’s nuclear ambiguity policy?

Israel neither confirms nor denies possessing nuclear weapons in order to maintain
deterrence and strategic uncertainty.

What is India’s position in this conflict?

India follows a balanced approach focused on diplomacy, energy security, protection of

Indian citizens, and regional stability.
 Historical Foundation of India–China Relations
India and China historically shared strong civilizational links through Buddhism, trade routes,
and cultural exchange. Chinese monks like Xuanzang travelled to India to study Buddhism,
and ancient centers like Nalanda University played an important role in intellectual
exchange. Historically, relations were more cooperative than confrontational.

After independence, India recognized the People’s Republic of China early. In the 1950s,
relations were marked by the slogan “Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai.” In 1954, Jawaharlal Nehru and
Zhou Enlai signed the Panchsheel Agreement based on peaceful coexistence. However, India
underestimated the strategic significance of Tibet after China took control of it in 1950.

The Tibet issue became the major turning point. In 1959, the Dalai Lama fled to India, which
increased Chinese suspicion towards India. Border disagreements over Aksai Chin and the
McMahon Line also intensified.

In 1962, the India–China war took place. India suffered a military setback, and trust between
both countries collapsed. The war left a deep psychological impact on Indian strategic
thinking. Since then, border issues have remained sensitive.

From 1962 to 1988, relations remained largely frozen with limited engagement. A major
reset happened in 1988 when Rajiv Gandhi visited China. Both countries agreed to improve
ties while managing border disputes separately.

From 1988 to 2005, relations stabilized gradually. Border management agreements were
signed in 1993 and 1996. Economic relations also expanded rapidly. During the visit of Atal
Bihari Vajpayee in 2003, India informally acknowledged Tibet as part of China, while China
softened its stand on Sikkim.

Between 2005 and 2013, economic cooperation increased, but strategic competition also
grew. China expanded infrastructure near borders, increased its Indian Ocean presence, and
strengthened ties with Pakistan. Issues like stapled visas and growing border incursions
increased tensions.

From 2013 to 2019, multiple standoffs took place including Depsang and Doklam. Even after
crises, both countries tried to stabilize ties through informal summits like Wuhan and
Mamallapuram.

The biggest turning point came in 2020 after the Galwan clash. It was the first deadly clash in
decades and severely damaged trust. India increased military deployment, restricted several
Chinese apps, and began focusing on strategic de-risking. Earlier, border peace was
considered the foundation of the relationship. After 2020, border stability became a
precondition for normalization.

Important interview line:​

India–China relations have evolved through three broad phases — civilizational cooperation,
post-independence idealism, and present-day strategic realism. Today’s tensions are deeply
rooted in historical trust deficits and geopolitical competition.

Border Dispute: The Core Issue

The Line of Actual Control or LAC is not a formally agreed international border. It is based on
ground positions after the 1962 war, and both India and China have different perceptions of
where the LAC lies. This difference in perception is one of the main reasons behind repeated
face-offs.

The border dispute is divided into three sectors:​

Western Sector – Ladakh, including Aksai Chin, is the most sensitive.​
Middle Sector – Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, which is comparatively stable.​
Eastern Sector – Arunachal Pradesh, which China refers to as “South Tibet.”

Clashes occur due to multiple reasons:​

Different perceptions of LAC,​
Rapid infrastructure development,​
Patrolling overlap,​
Strategic signalling,​
And attempts to improve bargaining positions.

Disengagement means troops move back from immediate friction points.​

De-escalation means reduction of overall troop deployment in the wider region.​
De-induction means withdrawal to permanent bases.

The 2020 Galwan clash changed the entire nature of border relations because it broke
decades of confidence-building assumptions.

A balanced interview answer on war probability:​

A full-scale war is unlikely due to nuclear deterrence and economic costs, but localized
military tensions and long-term strategic competition are likely to continue.
Important interview line:​
The border issue is not only territorial; it is also about deterrence, strategic credibility, and
long-term geopolitical competition.

China’s Strategic Motives

China’s behavior towards India is influenced by several strategic factors.

First is the Tibet factor. China views Tibet as a strategic buffer and highly sensitive security
zone. The Tibetan plateau provides strategic depth and military advantage.

Second is regime legitimacy. Under Xi Jinping, nationalism has become an important source
of legitimacy for the Chinese Communist Party. Therefore, China avoids appearing weak on
territorial matters.

Third is the larger Asian power transition. China sees itself as a rising global power and may
try to limit India’s strategic expansion in Asia.

Fourth is the Pakistan factor. China uses Pakistan as a strategic partner to keep India
regionally occupied and increase pressure on multiple fronts.

Fifth is maritime security. China depends heavily on global trade and energy imports passing
through sea routes, especially the Indian Ocean region.

Important interview line:​

China’s actions are driven not only by aggression but also by security concerns, regime
legitimacy, and long-term geopolitical ambitions.

Economic Relationship: Trade, Dependency & De-risking

China is one of India’s largest trading partners, but India runs a large trade deficit with China.

India imports:​
Electronics,​
Telecom equipment,​
Solar modules,​
Machinery,​
And pharmaceutical raw materials.

India mainly exports lower-value raw materials and basic products.

The main concern is not just the trade deficit but strategic dependency in critical sectors
such as electronics, APIs, telecom, and rare earths.

After 2020, India increased scrutiny on Chinese investments, banned several apps, and
promoted domestic manufacturing through initiatives like PLI and Atmanirbhar Bharat.

However, India has not adopted complete decoupling from China. Instead, the approach is
strategic de-risking.

Decoupling means complete separation of economies.​

De-risking means reducing vulnerabilities while maintaining necessary economic relations.

Important interview line:​

Complete decoupling is impractical due to global supply chains. India’s focus should be on
resilience, diversification, and reducing critical dependencies.

Another important interview line:​

Economic security and national security are increasingly interconnected in India–China
relations.

Maritime & Indo-Pacific Competition

The Indo-Pacific refers to the combined strategic space of the Indian Ocean and Pacific
Ocean regions. It is extremely important because major trade routes, energy supplies, and
naval activities pass through this region.

China’s growing naval presence is driven by:​

Protection of sea lanes,​
Energy security,​
Trade dependence,​
And long-term global ambitions.

China has expanded port access, logistics facilities, and naval deployments in the Indian
Ocean region.

India considers the Indian Ocean its primary strategic neighbourhood and focuses on
maintaining a free, open, and stable maritime order.

India’s maritime vision includes:​

SAGAR – Security and Growth for All in the Region,​
Maritime partnerships,​
Naval modernization,​
And Indo-Pacific cooperation.

The QUAD involving India, the US, Japan, and Australia is often discussed in this context.
India describes QUAD as a platform for cooperation and rules-based order rather than a
military alliance.

Important interview line:​

India–China maritime competition is structural in nature because both countries view the
Indo-Pacific as strategically important for security, trade, and regional influence.

Pakistan Factor: Two-front Strategic Pressure

The China–Pakistan partnership creates strategic pressure on India from both northern and
western directions.

China benefits by keeping India strategically occupied, while Pakistan gains diplomatic,
economic, and military support.

Projects like CPEC are important because India sees them as affecting sovereignty concerns
and increasing China’s long-term strategic footprint in the region.

The two-front challenge does not necessarily mean simultaneous war. It mainly refers to
simultaneous military, diplomatic, economic, cyber, and informational pressure.

This challenge also includes:​

Terrorism,​
Disinformation,​
Cyber threats,​
And proxy pressure.

India’s response includes:​

Military preparedness,​
Intelligence coordination,​
Counter-terror mechanisms,​
Diplomatic balancing,​
And strategic partnerships.

Important interview line:​

The two-front challenge is primarily about strategic pressure and resource stretching rather
than immediate full-scale war.
India’s Policy Toolkit: How Should India Deal with China?

India’s strategy towards China should be balanced, pragmatic, and long-term.

The first element is deterrence.​

India must maintain credible military preparedness, border infrastructure, and surveillance
capabilities to prevent coercion.

The second element is diplomacy.​

Dialogue remains important to manage crises, reduce escalation risks, and maintain
communication channels.

The third element is economic de-risking.​

India should reduce strategic vulnerabilities by diversifying supply chains and strengthening
domestic manufacturing capabilities.

The fourth element is technology security.​

Critical infrastructure, telecom networks, cyber security, and data protection have become
national security issues.

The fifth element is neighbourhood engagement.​

India must remain a reliable and trusted partner for neighbouring countries through
connectivity, development partnerships, and humanitarian support.

The sixth element is maritime partnerships.​

India should strengthen cooperation in the Indo-Pacific while maintaining strategic
autonomy.

India’s strategy can also be remembered through the 3D framework:​

Deter,​
De-risk,​
And Diplomatically manage.

Important interview line:​

India should avoid both appeasement and adventurism. The ideal approach is to remain firm
on sovereignty, pragmatic in engagement, and focused on long-term national resilience.

Most Important Interview Questions with Answers

Q. What is the Line of Actual Control?​

Answer: The LAC is not a formally agreed international border. It is a line based on ground
positions after the 1962 war, and both India and China have different perceptions regarding
it.

Q. Why do clashes happen on the India–China border?​

Answer: Clashes happen due to different perceptions of the LAC, infrastructure
development, patrol overlap, strategic signalling, and attempts to improve bargaining
positions.

Q. Is a full-scale India–China war likely?​

Answer: A full-scale war is unlikely because of nuclear deterrence and economic costs, but
localized tensions and strategic competition may continue.

Q. Why is Tibet important in India–China relations?​

Answer: China sees Tibet as a strategic buffer and sensitive security region. India hosting the
Dalai Lama increased Chinese suspicion and strategic distrust.

Q. Why does China support Pakistan?​

Answer: China uses Pakistan as a strategic partner to keep India regionally occupied and
maintain strategic leverage in South Asia.

Q. What is the two-front challenge?​

Answer: It refers to simultaneous pressure from China and Pakistan through military,
diplomatic, cyber, economic, and informational means.

Q. What is India’s response to the two-front challenge?​

Answer: India focuses on military preparedness, intelligence coordination, diplomatic
balancing, strategic partnerships, and internal security strengthening.

Q. What is meant by disengagement and de-escalation?​

Answer: Disengagement means troops move away from immediate friction points, while
de-escalation means reduction of overall troop deployment in a wider region.

Q. What is strategic de-risking?​

Answer: Strategic de-risking means reducing dependence in critical sectors while
maintaining necessary economic relations.

Q. Why is complete decoupling from China difficult?​

Answer: Complete decoupling is difficult because global supply chains are deeply
interconnected and sudden separation may harm economic growth.
Q. What is India’s approach in the Indo-Pacific?​
Answer: India supports a free, open, inclusive, and rules-based Indo-Pacific through
partnerships, maritime cooperation, and strategic autonomy.

Q. Is QUAD an anti-China military alliance?​

Answer: India describes QUAD as a platform for cooperation and rules-based order rather
than a formal military alliance.

Q. How should India deal with China?​

Answer: India should combine deterrence, diplomacy, economic resilience, technology
security, neighbourhood engagement, and strategic partnerships while maintaining strategic
autonomy.

Q. Can India trust China?​

Answer: Trust levels are low after repeated border tensions, so India’s policy should be
based on verification, preparedness, and strategic caution rather than assumptions.

Q. What changed after the Galwan clash?​

Answer: After Galwan, border stability became a precondition for normal relations, and India
began focusing more on military preparedness and strategic de-risking.

Q. Why is the Indian Ocean important for China?​

Answer: China depends heavily on sea routes passing through the Indian Ocean for trade
and energy imports, making maritime security extremely important for Beijing.

Q. What is the significance of CPEC?​

Answer: CPEC increases China’s strategic presence in the region and raises sovereignty
concerns for India because parts of the corridor pass through Pakistan-occupied territory.

Q. What is India’s long-term strategy toward China?​

Answer: India’s long-term strategy is to maintain deterrence, strengthen domestic resilience,
reduce strategic vulnerabilities, deepen partnerships, and avoid unnecessary escalation.
 India–Bangladesh Relations
Historical Foundations

To understand India–Bangladesh relations, we must first go back to 1947. During Partition,

Pakistan was created in two geographically separate parts — West Pakistan and East
Pakistan, which is present-day Bangladesh. Both regions were separated by almost 1600 km
of Indian territory. This geographical separation itself created long-term political and
administrative difficulties.

East Pakistan had a Bengali-speaking majority, while political and military power remained
concentrated in West Pakistan. The people of East Pakistan also felt economically exploited
because most revenues generated from jute and agriculture were used for the development
of West Pakistan. Political marginalisation and cultural discrimination gradually increased
resentment.

A major turning point came during the Bengali Language Movement of 1952. Pakistan
declared Urdu as the only national language, despite Bengali speakers being the majority.
Students protested in Dhaka, and police firing killed several protestors. This movement
became the emotional foundation of Bangladeshi nationalism.

The next major event was the 1971 Liberation War. In the 1970 elections, the Awami League
under Sheikh Mujibur Rahman won a majority, but power was not transferred by West
Pakistan. The Pakistani military launched Operation Searchlight, leading to widespread
violence and a refugee crisis. Around 10 million refugees entered India.

India, under Indira Gandhi, supported the Mukti Bahini and later intervened militarily in
December 1971. The war lasted only 13 days, and Pakistan surrendered in Dhaka.
Bangladesh emerged as an independent nation.

In 1972, both countries signed the Treaty of Friendship, laying the foundation for close
cooperation.

Questions with Answers

1.​ Why did East Pakistan separate from West Pakistan?​

East Pakistan faced economic exploitation, political discrimination, and cultural
suppression by West Pakistan. The Bengali identity and demand for political rights
eventually led to separation.
 2.​ What was Operation Searchlight?​
Operation Searchlight was a military crackdown launched by Pakistan in 1971 against
Bengali nationalists in East Pakistan. It led to large-scale violence and refugee
migration into India.
3.​ Why did India intervene in the 1971 war?​
India intervened due to the humanitarian refugee crisis and strategic concerns
related to Pakistan’s aggression. It also supported Bangladesh’s independence
movement.
4.​ What is the significance of 21 February?​
21 February marks the Bengali Language Movement of 1952. It is observed
internationally as Mother Language Day.
5.​ How did the 1971 war change India’s security landscape?​
The creation of Bangladesh ended Pakistan’s two-front geographical position and
improved India’s strategic situation in the eastern region.

Political and Diplomatic Evolution

Relations between India and Bangladesh were initially very warm between 1971 and 1975
because India had actively supported Bangladesh’s liberation.

However, after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975, Bangladesh witnessed
military coups and political instability. Leaders such as Ziaur Rahman and H.M. Ershad moved
Bangladesh closer to China and Pakistan.

From 1996 onwards, relations gradually improved. The signing of the Ganga Water Treaty
marked a positive step. Under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, especially after 2009, bilateral
relations improved significantly through security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and
economic engagement.

Today, India and Bangladesh maintain one of the strongest bilateral relationships in South
Asia.

Questions with Answers

1.​ Why did relations deteriorate after 1975?​

After Sheikh Mujib’s assassination, military governments adopted anti-India policies
and moved closer to China and Pakistan. Trust between both countries declined.
2.​ What role did Sheikh Hasina play in improving ties?​
Sheikh Hasina strengthened security cooperation, acted against Indian insurgents,
and promoted economic and connectivity projects with India.
 3.​ Can regime change in Bangladesh affect India?​
Yes, because political leadership in South Asia often shapes foreign policy priorities
and strategic partnerships.
4.​ Why is Bangladesh important in India’s Neighbourhood First Policy?​
Bangladesh is important due to geographical proximity, connectivity with Northeast
India, trade, and security cooperation.

Security Cooperation and Counter-Terrorism

Security cooperation is one of the most important pillars of India–Bangladesh relations.

Bangladesh shares a 4096 km border with India, touching states like Assam, Tripura,
Meghalaya, Mizoram, and West Bengal.

During the period from 1975 to around 2008, several Indian insurgent groups such as ULFA
reportedly operated from Bangladeshi territory.

A major shift occurred after 2009 when Bangladesh launched a crackdown on insurgent
camps and strengthened intelligence cooperation with India. This significantly improved
India’s internal security situation in the Northeast.

Both countries now cooperate on counter-terrorism, intelligence sharing, border patrols,

and military exercises such as Exercise SAMPRITI.

The 2015 Land Boundary Agreement resolved the enclave problem and improved border
administration.

Questions with Answers

1.​ Why is Bangladesh important for India’s Northeast security?​

Bangladesh surrounds much of Northeast India, so cross-border insurgency,
smuggling, or instability directly affects regional security.
2.​ How did Bangladesh help India against ULFA?​
Bangladesh cracked down on insurgent camps and handed over several militant
leaders to India after 2009.
3.​ What is the significance of the Land Boundary Agreement?​
It resolved the enclave issue peacefully and improved border management between
both countries.
4.​ What are the major border security challenges?​
Smuggling, illegal migration, fake currency, trafficking, and arms movement remain
major concerns.
 5.​ Is Bangladesh still a security threat to India?​
Earlier concerns existed, but today Bangladesh is largely viewed as a cooperative
security partner.

Water Sharing Disputes

India and Bangladesh share 54 transboundary rivers, making water diplomacy extremely
important.

The Ganga Water Treaty signed in 1996 addressed concerns related to the Farakka Barrage
and established a water-sharing formula.

However, the Teesta River dispute remains unresolved. Teesta flows through Sikkim and
West Bengal before entering Bangladesh. During the dry season, water availability becomes
limited.

The agreement has been delayed mainly due to objections raised by West Bengal regarding
irrigation requirements.

Climate change has also increased concerns related to floods, droughts, and river
management.

Questions with Answers

1.​ Why is the Teesta River important for Bangladesh?​

Teesta water is important for irrigation and agriculture in northern Bangladesh,
especially during the dry season.
2.​ Why is the Teesta dispute unresolved?​
The issue remains unresolved because water is a state subject in India and West
Bengal has raised concerns regarding farmers’ interests.
3.​ What is the significance of the Ganga Water Treaty?​
It is considered a successful example of water-sharing diplomacy between two
neighbouring countries.
4.​ How does climate change affect water relations?​
Climate change increases floods, droughts, glacial melting, and uncertainty in river
water flow.

Economic Relations

Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia. Bilateral trade has crossed nearly
15–18 billion dollars in recent years.
India exports petroleum products, machinery, cotton, and food items, while Bangladesh
exports garments, jute products, fish, and leather goods.

Connectivity projects involving railways, waterways, and ports have strengthened regional
integration. Chattogram and Mongla ports are especially important for India’s Northeast.

Energy cooperation has also expanded, with India exporting electricity to Bangladesh.

Bangladesh’s economic growth has transformed it into an emerging manufacturing hub.

Questions with Answers

1.​ Why is Bangladesh economically important for India?​

Bangladesh is a major trade partner and also provides connectivity access to India’s
Northeast region.
2.​ What are Border Haats?​
Border Haats are local cross-border markets that improve livelihood opportunities
and reduce smuggling.
3.​ Why are Chattogram and Mongla ports important?​
These ports provide shorter and cheaper trade routes for Northeast India.
4.​ What is CEPA?​
CEPA stands for Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement aimed at deeper
economic integration.
5.​ How has Bangladesh emerged as a manufacturing hub?​
Strong growth in garments, exports, and industrial production helped Bangladesh
become a manufacturing center.

China Factor in Bangladesh

China has become a major player in Bangladesh through infrastructure investment, trade,
and defence cooperation.

Bangladesh joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative and received investments in roads,
bridges, ports, and industrial projects.

China also supplies military equipment, including submarines, to Bangladesh. This creates
strategic concerns for India due to the importance of the Bay of Bengal.

However, Bangladesh follows a policy of strategic autonomy and balances relations with
both India and China.
​
Questions with Answers

1.​ Is China replacing India in Bangladesh?​

China’s influence has increased economically, but India still remains Bangladesh’s
closest geographical and strategic partner.
2.​ Why did Bangladesh join BRI?​
Bangladesh joined BRI to attract infrastructure investment and support economic
development.
3.​ What is strategic autonomy?​
Strategic autonomy means maintaining balanced relations with multiple countries
without depending fully on one power.
4.​ How should India respond to China’s influence?​
India should improve connectivity, economic engagement, and project delivery while
respecting Bangladesh’s sovereignty.

Migration, NRC and Border Sensitivities

Migration remains one of the most politically sensitive issues in India–Bangladesh relations.

Migration has historically occurred due to poverty, climate displacement, livelihood

opportunities, and family connections across borders.

NRC and CAA created diplomatic sensitivities because Bangladesh does not want to be
portrayed negatively regarding migration or minority rights.

India has strengthened border fencing, surveillance systems, and coordination between BSF
and BGB.

Border killings and smuggling also remain sensitive issues requiring careful management.

Questions with Answers

1.​ Is illegal migration from Bangladesh real?​

There have been instances of undocumented migration historically, but the issue is
complex and linked to economic and environmental factors.
2.​ Why are NRC and CAA sensitive issues?​
These issues create diplomatic concerns because Bangladesh feels they indirectly
target its image internationally.
 3.​ How should India handle migration?​
India should address migration through legal, humane, and administrative
mechanisms while ensuring border security.
4.​ Why are border killings controversial?​
Civilian casualties during anti-smuggling operations create humanitarian and
diplomatic concerns.

Rohingya Crisis and Regional Impact

The Rohingya crisis originated in Myanmar but became a major regional challenge after large
numbers of refugees entered Bangladesh.

Bangladesh currently hosts around one million Rohingya refugees in camps around Cox’s
Bazar.

The crisis creates humanitarian, economic, and security pressure on Bangladesh. Long-term
displacement can increase risks related to trafficking and criminal networks.

India supports humanitarian assistance while also focusing on security and regional stability.

Questions with Answers

1.​ Why is the Rohingya crisis important for India and Bangladesh?​
The crisis affects regional security, humanitarian management, and border stability in
South Asia.
2.​ Is the Rohingya issue humanitarian or security-related?​
It is primarily humanitarian but also has security implications due to prolonged
displacement and illegal networks.
3.​ Why has Rohingya repatriation not succeeded?​
Conditions in Myanmar are still considered unsafe for voluntary and dignified return.
4.​ What should India’s approach be?​
India should support humanitarian relief, regional diplomacy, and security
coordination with Bangladesh.

Domestic Political Changes in Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s domestic politics has witnessed major changes in recent years, including
political protests, opposition movements, and leadership transitions.

Political instability in Bangladesh directly affects India because of shared borders, migration
concerns, and Northeast security.
Despite leadership changes, both countries are expected to continue cooperation in areas
such as trade, security, and connectivity because of mutual strategic interests.

India’s long-term policy is expected to remain institution-based rather than dependent on

individual leaders.

Questions with Answers

1.​ How do political changes in Bangladesh affect India?​

Political instability can impact border security, migration management, and regional
strategic stability.
2.​ Why are elections in Bangladesh politically sensitive?​
Bangladesh has a history of political polarization, opposition protests, and legitimacy
debates regarding elections.
3.​ Why should India avoid personality-based diplomacy?​
Stable relations should be based on institutions and long-term interests rather than
individual leaders.
4.​ Can instability in Bangladesh affect Northeast India?​
Yes, instability can increase security concerns, migration pressure, and cross-border
criminal activity.

Conclusion

India–Bangladesh relations have evolved from historical solidarity during the 1971 Liberation
War to a modern strategic partnership based on security cooperation, economic integration,
connectivity, and regional stability.

Although challenges remain in areas such as migration, water disputes, and geopolitical
competition involving China, both countries recognize the importance of cooperation.

Today, Bangladesh is considered one of India’s most important and stable neighbours in
South Asia.
 INDIA–RUSSIA RELATIONS
Topic 1: Why India–Russia Matters

India and Russia share what both countries officially call a “Special and Privileged Strategic
Partnership.” This relationship is considered important because it is not based only on trade
or diplomacy, but also on long-term strategic trust, defence cooperation, energy security,
and geopolitical coordination. Russia has historically supported India during difficult
geopolitical situations, especially during the Cold War period. Unlike many purely
transactional international relationships, India–Russia ties developed over decades through
defence collaboration, diplomatic backing, and technology transfers.

Historically, the Soviet Union supported India during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War
and often used its veto power in the United Nations Security Council in India’s favor. This
created a perception in Indian strategic circles that Russia is a reliable partner during crises.

Defence cooperation remains the backbone of the relationship. A large portion of India’s
military equipment is of Soviet or Russian origin. India and Russia have collaborated in
missile development, submarine cooperation, fighter aircraft production, and air defence
systems. This relationship directly affects India’s national security, operational readiness, and
strategic posture.

Another important factor is energy security. After the Ukraine war, India significantly
increased imports of discounted Russian crude oil. This helped India manage inflation and
energy prices. Since India imports a major portion of its energy requirements, maintaining
stable energy access is a strategic necessity.

India and Russia also cooperate in multilateral forums such as BRICS and SCO and support
the idea of a multipolar world order where power is not concentrated in one bloc.

For an IB ACIO interview, the important understanding is that India–Russia relations are
based on strategic interests, not emotions or ideology.

Topic 2: Historical Evolution of India–Russia Relations

India–Russia relations can be understood in five major phases.

The first phase was the Cold War era from 1947 to 1991. India officially followed the policy
of non-alignment, but gradually moved closer to the Soviet Union because the United States
was often seen supporting Pakistan. During this period, the Soviet Union supplied military
equipment, helped establish industrial projects such as Bhilai Steel Plant, and supported
India diplomatically on Kashmir and other issues.

A major turning point came in 1971 with the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and
Cooperation. During the Bangladesh Liberation War, the Soviet Union strongly backed India
diplomatically and strategically. This period established deep trust between the two
countries.

The second phase started after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Russia entered
economic and political instability, and India faced difficulties in obtaining military spare
parts. This period taught India the dangers of excessive dependence on a single supplier.
However, despite these challenges, the relationship survived because both countries still
needed strategic cooperation.

The third phase was the Putin era beginning around 2000. Under Vladimir Putin, India and
Russia institutionalized annual summits and expanded defence and nuclear cooperation.
Projects such as BrahMos missile cooperation and Kudankulam nuclear plant became
symbols of strategic partnership.

The fourth phase began after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Western sanctions on
Russia increased, and Russia moved closer to China. At the same time, India expanded
relations with the United States, France, Israel, and other countries. India adopted a policy
of multi-alignment while maintaining strategic autonomy.

The fifth phase began after the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. India neither condemned Russia
directly nor supported the invasion openly. Instead, India emphasized diplomacy,
sovereignty, and peaceful resolution while continuing energy and defence cooperation with
Russia.

The most important analytical understanding is that India’s Russia policy has always been
pragmatic and interest-based rather than ideological.

Topic 3: Defence and Strategic Cooperation

Defence cooperation is the strongest pillar of India–Russia relations. For decades, the Soviet
Union and later Russia became India’s largest defence supplier. A significant portion of
India’s air force aircraft, tanks, submarines, and missile systems originated from Soviet or
Russian technology.

India and Russia cooperate at three levels. The first is simple buyer-seller relations where
India purchases equipment. The second is licensed production where India manufactures
equipment domestically using Russian technology. The third and most important level is
co-development, where both countries jointly develop advanced systems.

Examples include BrahMos missile cooperation, nuclear submarine leasing arrangements,

fighter aircraft production, and advanced air defence systems.

One major advantage of Russian defence cooperation historically was technology transfer.
Western countries were often reluctant to transfer critical technologies, whereas Russia was
more flexible in certain strategic areas.

However, this relationship also creates risks. India remains dependent on Russian spare parts
and maintenance support. Sanctions on Russia and disruptions caused by war can affect
military readiness. Another concern is Russia’s increasing closeness with China, which
creates strategic uncertainty for India.

Therefore, India’s strategy today is not to abandon Russia but to gradually reduce excessive
dependence. India is diversifying defence imports, strengthening indigenous manufacturing
under Atmanirbhar Bharat, and maintaining diplomatic engagement with Russia
simultaneously.

If asked whether India should reduce defence ties with Russia, a mature answer would be
that India should reduce dependency while maintaining strategic engagement. Abrupt
disengagement would harm operational readiness and may push Russia even closer to
China.

Topic 4: Energy Partnership

Energy security is one of the most important dimensions of India–Russia relations today.
India imports a very large percentage of its crude oil requirements. Therefore, energy price
fluctuations directly affect inflation, economic stability, and national security.

Before the Ukraine war, Russia was not among India’s largest oil suppliers. However, after
Western sanctions on Russia, Russian crude became available at discounted rates. India
increased imports significantly, helping stabilize domestic fuel prices.

India’s position has been that it purchases oil based on national interest and market
conditions and has not violated any United Nations sanctions.

Apart from crude oil, India and Russia cooperate in LNG discussions and nuclear energy
projects. Russia is involved in India’s Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant and supplies nuclear
fuel support.
However, the sanctions environment created challenges related to payments, insurance, and
shipping. India and Russia explored local currency settlement mechanisms and alternative
payment systems.

One major concern is overdependence. Energy dependence can become a geopolitical

vulnerability if supply routes are disrupted or sanctions intensify.

In interviews, it is important to explain that India balances affordability, energy security, and
diplomatic considerations simultaneously.

Topic 5: Ukraine War and India’s Position

The Russia–Ukraine war significantly changed global geopolitics. Western countries imposed
sanctions on Russia, Europe faced an energy crisis, and global supply chains were disrupted.

India adopted a carefully balanced position. India consistently stated support for sovereignty
and territorial integrity while also calling for dialogue, diplomacy, and peaceful resolution.

At the United Nations, India abstained from several resolutions condemning Russia.
However, India did not openly endorse the invasion either.

The reasons behind India’s approach are strategic rather than ideological. First, India still
depends heavily on Russian defence systems. Second, India faces an active security
challenge from China and does not want Russia to move entirely into China’s strategic camp.
Third, discounted Russian oil helped India manage inflation and energy security. Finally, India
follows the doctrine of strategic autonomy and avoids joining rigid geopolitical blocs.

A very important interview distinction is between neutrality and strategic autonomy.

Neutrality means avoiding taking a position altogether, whereas strategic autonomy means
making independent decisions based on national interest.

India’s policy was not passive neutrality. India sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, evacuated
Indian students, maintained dialogue with both Russia and the West, and repeatedly
emphasized peaceful resolution.

Critics in the West argued that India weakened the moral position on territorial integrity.
India’s response has been that foreign policy must balance moral principles with practical
security concerns.

For IB ACIO interviews, it is important to remain balanced and avoid ideological or emotional
arguments.
Topic 6: Russia–China Closeness and Implications for India

One of the biggest strategic concerns for India today is the growing closeness between
Russia and China. This closeness has increased because Western sanctions pushed Russia
toward greater economic and strategic cooperation with China.

Russia and China now cooperate more closely in areas such as energy trade, military
exercises, diplomatic coordination, and strategic messaging against Western dominance.

For India, this creates several concerns. Earlier, Russia maintained a relatively balanced
approach between India and China. Today, because Russia depends more heavily on China
economically and strategically, India cannot assume the same level of Russian sensitivity to
India’s concerns.

Another issue is defence technology and military coordination. If Russia becomes too closely
aligned with China, India worries about the broader strategic implications for Asian security.

However, India also understands that pushing Russia away completely may worsen the
situation further.

Therefore, India’s strategy can be summarized as “Hold–Hedge–Harden.”

Hold means maintaining diplomatic engagement with Russia.

Hedge means diversifying defence imports and reducing critical dependencies.

Harden means strengthening India’s own military preparedness, border infrastructure, cyber
capabilities, and maritime security.

If asked whether Russia has become a junior partner of China, a balanced answer would be
that sanctions have increased China’s leverage over Russia, but Russia still retains significant
independent strategic capabilities. The important point for India is not hierarchy but growing
Russia–China coordination.

Likely IB ACIO Interview Questions and Detailed Answers

Q1. Why is Russia still important for India today?

Russia remains important for India because the relationship is deeply embedded in defence
cooperation, energy security, nuclear collaboration, and strategic geopolitics. A major
portion of India’s military inventory is still Russian-origin, making maintenance and spare
parts support essential for operational readiness. Russia also became an important energy
supplier after the Ukraine war, helping India manage inflation through discounted oil
imports. Additionally, both countries support a multipolar world order and cooperate in
forums like BRICS and SCO. Therefore, despite India diversifying its global partnerships,
Russia remains strategically significant.

Q2. Has India’s Russia policy changed after the Ukraine war?

India’s tactical approach has evolved, but the core strategic relationship remains stable. India
increased oil imports from Russia due to energy requirements and maintained defence
engagement despite sanctions. However, India simultaneously strengthened relations with
the United States, Europe, Japan, and others. India’s overall policy remains based on
strategic autonomy, where decisions are taken according to national interest rather than
bloc politics.

Q3. Is India neutral in the Ukraine war?

India’s position is better described as strategic autonomy rather than neutrality. India has
repeatedly emphasized respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity while also avoiding
direct condemnation of Russia. India maintained diplomatic communication with all sides
and called for peaceful resolution through dialogue. Therefore, India adopted an
independent and calibrated position based on its national interests and security concerns.

Q4. Should India reduce defence dependence on Russia?

India should reduce excessive dependence but should not abruptly reduce engagement.
Sudden disengagement would affect operational readiness because many Indian military
systems require Russian spare parts and technical support. Instead, India should gradually
diversify suppliers, strengthen domestic defence manufacturing, and maintain strategic
engagement with Russia simultaneously.

Q5. Is India indirectly funding Russia’s war by buying oil?

India purchases oil according to national energy requirements and market conditions. Oil is a
globally traded commodity, and India has not violated any United Nations sanctions. India’s
primary responsibility is to ensure energy affordability and economic stability for its
population. At the same time, India continues to support diplomatic resolution of the
conflict.

Q6. What is strategic autonomy?

Strategic autonomy means making independent foreign policy decisions based on national
interest without becoming permanently aligned with any major power bloc. India maintains
relations with multiple countries simultaneously while preserving decision-making
independence.

Q7. How should India handle Russia–China closeness?

India should maintain diplomatic engagement with Russia while reducing strategic
vulnerabilities. This means diversifying defence imports, strengthening indigenous defence
production, enhancing military preparedness against China, and continuing balanced
diplomacy. India must avoid both overdependence and unnecessary confrontation.

Q8. What is the future of India–Russia relations?

India–Russia relations will likely remain important but evolve gradually. Defence cooperation
may continue, although India will diversify over time. Energy cooperation will remain
significant depending on global market conditions. The biggest challenge will be managing
the impact of Russia–China closeness while preserving India’s strategic autonomy. Overall,
the relationship will remain pragmatic and interest-driven rather than ideological.

Final Interview Closing Statement

India–Russia relations are rooted in historical trust but guided by present-day strategic
interests. Defence cooperation, energy security, and geopolitical balancing continue to
shape the partnership. At the same time, India is reducing excessive dependence through
diversification and self-reliance. India’s overall approach reflects strategic autonomy, where
national interest remains the central guiding principle of foreign policy.