The Pacific Ocean is running a fever. Why that’s an ominous sign.
A marine heat wave covering an area eight times the size of the
United States could soon fuel serious storms and extreme heat.
July 5, 2026 at 5:00 a.m. EDTToday at 5:00 a.m. EDT
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A massive marine heat wave covers the Pacific Ocean. It could
contribute to severe storms and extreme heat across the United
States this year. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post; NOAA/Coral Reef
Watch)
By Ben Noll
Across the Pacific Ocean, there’s a massive marine heat wave
covering an area more than eight times the size of the contiguous
United States — and it could have profound ripple effects for weather
events around the globe in the coming weeks and months.
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This area makes up about 13.5 percent of Earth’s total surface,
stretching from the Philippines to Peru — where people are flocking to
the beach during the Southern Hemisphere winter — and northward
to the coasts of Hawaii and California.
Marine heat waves are a strong, sprawling and sustained warming in
the ocean, sometimes near the surface and other times extending
deep. They are ranked on a scale from 1 (moderate) to 5 (beyond
extreme), reflecting both their intensity and duration.
The enormous Pacific marine heat wave formed as two separate
marine heat waves combined: one in the North Pacific and another
associated with a developing super El Niño along the equator.
While warmer seas might sound nice to some beachgoers, what
happens in the ocean doesn’t stay in the ocean — and this marine
heat wave is an ominous sign for weather patterns to come.
“Months and months of warmth could mean stark impacts this winter
and next spring,” said climate scientist Dillon Amaya, who has been
closely monitoring the warmth near California.
How this ocean fever could affect the weather
Two significant weather events in the next two weeks are connected
to this marine heat wave: a super typhoon in the western Pacific
Ocean and the potential for a profound heat dome in the western
United States during mid-July.
The typhoon, named Bavi, will be powered by the bathtub-like warmth
of the western Pacific. This dangerous storm will pass near the
Northern Mariana Islands, north of Guam, on Monday local time and
could also bring destructive impacts to Taiwan and China late in the
week.
Meanwhile, thunderstorms bubbling over the marine heat wave could
promote the formation of a powerful heat dome thousands of miles
away in the western U.S. during mid-July, sending temperatures
soaring there.
Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb said in an X post that
this pattern could “greatly increase heat/wildfire risks north of New
Mexico and Arizona.” That’s an area where wildfires have recently
been raging.
But there may be much more extreme weather after that.
In a recent live stream, climate scientist Daniel Swain said the very
warm Pacific seas are expected to drive sea levels 6 inches to 2 feet
higher near California.
Winds from storms this fall and winter will elevate the sea even more,
potentially resulting in dangerous rises of 2 to 3 feet or more near the
California coast.
“This is the time for local governments, for county governments and
for the state government to start to prepare for a significant likelihood
of much higher than average sea levels, more disruptive coastal
flooding and potentially record-breaking coastal water levels during
winter storm events and king tide events,” Swain said.
“This coming winter, right now, does look like one where there’s an
increased likelihood of historically unusual to unprecedented rain and
storm events,” Swain said.
But he stressed that while the odds for such scenarios are higher,
they are not guaranteed.
An intensifying El Niño and marine heat wave in the Pacific Ocean
could fuel serious storm events in the United States this year. (Video:
Ben Noll; ECMWF)
California isn’t the only place that could experience such profound
effects.
The vast amount of heat stretching across the Pacific will be released
into the atmosphere above, turbocharging the subtropical jet stream
from fall into winter. That may form a storm highway across the
southern and eastern United States, elevating the potential for
flooding rainfall and severe thunderstorms.
This ocean fever will have global consequences, too. As sea
temperatures rise, evaporation increases, adding more water vapor to
the atmosphere — which is fuel for extreme rain events.
“Water vapor amounts go hand in hand with sea surface
temperatures, mostly,” said climate scientist Kevin Trenberth.
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That extra moisture is carried by winds that circulate around high-
and low-pressure cells and can be carried thousands of miles from
where it originated.
Following a deadly June heat dome, a marine heat wave also recently
formed near Europe, including across the Mediterranean Sea. More
extreme heat will affect that region into mid-July, with the unusually
warm waters helping to reinforce the heat.
The area covered by marine heat waves is surging
Marine heat waves form in different ways. Sometimes, winds weaken
and the sea turns calmer, preventing colder water from being churned
up to the surface from below. Other times, changes in atmospheric
circulation patterns cause more sunshine and fewer clouds, heating
up the sea. Changing ocean currents can play a role, too.
The one currently in the Pacific is linked to a natural climate variation
called the Pacific Meridional Mode, or PMM, that formed because of
weaker winds and less evaporation.
Amaya said that as El Niño continues to grow, it can combine with the
PMM to generate massive swaths of heat.
These warm ocean blobs are growing in both coverage and intensity
as the climate changes.
“The heat capacity and mobility of water makes the ocean the main
sink of excess heat from human-induced heating of the planet, mainly
from increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere,” Trenberth said.
The portion of the global ocean experiencing marine heat waves has
more than tripled since the late 1980s, increasing from about 9
percent to more than 30 percent.
Over that same period, the global coverage of strong to beyond
extreme (Category 2 to Category 5) marine heat waves has increased
nearly sixfold.
Marine heat waves also spike during El Niño events.
In January 2024, during an El Niño event that contributed to the
planet’s warmest year on record, more than 46 percent of the global
oceans simultaneously experienced a marine heat wave — the
highest amount on record.
Currently, more than 37 percent of the global ocean is covered by a
marine heat wave, but a record may be set this year or next as this
ocean fever — and its potential impact — intensifies.
About this story
The marine heat wave statistics were calculated using data from
NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch that extends back to 1985. Trends were
calculated by first applying a two-week rolling average to the data.
Shapefiles were used to compute the size of the Pacific marine heat
wave area relative to the contiguous United States.
What readers are saying
The comments reflect a strong concern about climate change, with
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deny its existence or downplay its impact. Several commenters
sarcastically criticize the dismissal of climate change as a hoax, while
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