CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY, TOTAL
PROBABILITY & BAYES’ THEOREM
—Aarav Mithesh —
An ISC Class XII Project
Created in the valley school, KFI
2025–2026
The Contents
The Contents....................................................................................................... 1
The Acknowledgements.................................................................................... 2
The Introduction................................................................................................. 3
Conditional Probability......................................................................................4
Definition..........................................................................................................4
The Theorem of Total Probability....................................................................5
Statement........................................................................................................ 5
Explanation...................................................................................................... 5
Bayes’ Theorem...................................................................................................6
Statement........................................................................................................ 6
Interpretation.................................................................................................. 6
Illustrative Examples......................................................................................... 7
Example 1: Conditional Probability............................................................... 7
Example 2: Total Probability.......................................................................... 7
Example 3: Bayes’ Theorem........................................................................... 7
The Bibliography.................................................................................................8
1
The Acknowledgements
Creating this project has been a conceptually challenging journey. I extend
my gratitude to my mathematics teacher, whose constant support and
detailed explanations helped me understand the ideas of probability and
their applications.
2
The Introduction
Among the most fascinating branches of mathematics is Probability
Theory, which allows us to quantify uncertainty. Whether predicting
weather, evaluating risk in finance, designing algorithms, or analysing
experiments, probability enables us to make informed predictions.
For Class XII ISC, concepts such as conditional probability, the theorem
of total probability, and Bayes’ theorem are foundational, especially in
real‑world decision‑making. These concepts answer questions such as:
● How does the probability of an event change when new information
is available?
● How can we compute the probability of an event when it may occur
due to different causes?
● How do we update our predictions when new evidence appears?
This project aims to explain these concepts in a clear and structured
manner, along with examples suitable for ISC standards.
3
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability measures the likelihood of an event given that
another event has already occurred.
Definition
If A and B are two events in a sample space and P(B) ≠ 0, the conditional
probability of A given B is:
Equation (CP-1): Conditional Probability Formula
P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B)
Where:
● P(A ∩ B) = probability that both A and B occur
● P(B) = probability of B (must not be zero)
This formula tells us how the probability of A changes when we know that
B has happened.
Conditional probability is at the heart of statistical modelling, diagnostics,
machine learning, and reasoning.
4
The Theorem of Total Probability
The total probability theorem helps us compute the probability of an event
when the sample space is partitioned into multiple cases.
Statement
Equation (TP-1): Total Probability Formula
P(A) = Σ P(Bᵢ) × P(A | Bᵢ)
Where B₁, B₂, ..., B are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Explanation
This theorem says that an event A might occur due to several mutually
exclusive causes, each represented by a BiB_iBi. To find the total
probability of A, we:
1. Calculate the probability of A within each case.
2. Multiply it by the probability of that case.
3. Add up all contributions.
This principle is widely used in genetics, reliability engineering,
communication systems, and more.
5
Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes’ theorem is one of the most important results in probability. It
allows us to reverse conditional probabilities—that is, to find the
probability of a cause given that we know the outcome.
Statement
If B1,B2,...,BnB_1, B_2, ..., B_nB1,B2,...,Bnform a partition of the sample
space and P(A) ≠ 0, then for any BkB_kBk:
Equation (B-1): Bayes’ Theorem
P(Bₖ | A) = [ P(Bₖ) × P(A | Bₖ ) ] / Σ[P(Bᵢ) × P(A | Bᵢ)]
Interpretation
Bayes’ theorem helps answer questions like:
● What is the probability that a patient has a disease given a positive
test?
● What is the probability that a student chose Set A given that their
answer was correct?
6
Illustrative Examples.
Example 1: Conditional Probability
A box contains 4 red balls and 6 blue balls. One ball is drawn.
● Let A = event that the ball is red.
● Let B = event that the ball is drawn from the first 5 positions
(assuming the balls are arranged in a line).
If 3 of the first 5 balls are red:
Equation (EX1-1): P(A ∩ B) = 3/10
Equation (EX1-2): P(B) = 5/10
Equation (EX1-3): P(A | B) = (3/10) / (5/10) = 3/5
Example 2: Total Probability
A student may choose one of two books to study for an exam:
● Book B₁ with probability 0.6
● Book B₂ with probability 0.4
Probability of passing if they study:
● B₁: 0.7
● B₂: 0.5
Equation (EX2-1): P(Pass) = 0.6×0.7 + 0.4×0.5 = 0.62
Example 3: Bayes’ Theorem
Using the same situation above, what is the probability that the student
studied Book B₁ given that they passed?
Equation (EX3-1): P(B₁ | Pass) = [0.6×0.7] / 0.62 = 0.6774
So there is about a 67.7% chance the student studied Book B₁.
7
The Bibliography
1. ISC Class XII Mathematics Textbook — Probability Chapter
2. [Link]
3. [Link]
4. [Link]
5. [Link]
6. [Link]
7. [Link]
8. [Link]