17.5.

1 Some Important Terms and Concepts

conducted, any number of times,
1. Random Experiment If an cxperiment is under
associated with it. If the outcomc is not
conditions, there is a set of all possible outcomes
may be any one of the possible outcomes, the cxperiment is called a random Cxperiment, e.g.
identa
a coin, throwing a dice.
2. Outcome The result of a random experiment is
called an outcomnc. For examnple,
following:
Consider e
is tossed'. This experiment gives
(a) Suppose a random experiment is 'a coin
outcomes-head or tail.
(b) Suppose a random experiment is 'a dice is thrown'. This experiment gives siX poss
outcomes-1, 2, 3, 4,5 or 6-on the uppermost face of adice.
3. Trial and Event Any particular performance of a random experiment is called a trist
followine.
outcome. A combination of outcomes is called an event. For example, consider the
(a) Tossing of a coin is a trial, and getting a head or tail is an event.
(b) Throwing of a dice is a trial and getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 is an event.
4. Exhaustive Event The total number of possible outcomes of arandom experiment is calet
exhaustive event. For example, consider the following:
(a) In tossing of a coin, there are two exhaustive events, viz., head and tail.
(b) In throwing of a dice, there are six exhaustive events, getting 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5or 6.
5. Mutually Exclusive Events Events are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of o
of them prevents the occurrence of all others in the same trial, i.e., they cannot occur simultaneous;
For example, consider the following:
(a) In tossing a coin, the events head or tail are mutually exclusive since both head and
cannot occur at the same time.
(b) In throwing a dice, all the six events, ie., getting I or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 are murual
exclusive events.

6. Equally Likely Events The outcomes of a random experiment are said to be equally likely
the occurrence of none ofthemis expected in preference to others. For example, consider the followm
(a) In tossing a coin, head or tal are equally likely events.
(b) In throwing a dice, all the six faces are equally likely events.
7. Independent Events Events are said to be independent if the occurrence of an event dots
have any effect on the occurrence of other events. For example, consider the following:
(a) In tossing acoin, the event of getting ahead in the first toss is independent of getting an6
in the second, third, and subsequent tosses.
(b) In throwing a dice, the result of the first throw does not affect the result of the second u
 8. Favourable Events The favourable events in a random experimnent are the number ofoutcomes

which
entail the occurrence of the event. For
In throwing oftwo dice, the favourable eventsexample,
following:
of gettingconsider
the sumthe5is (1,4), (4, 1).(2, 3), (3, 2), i.e., 4.

17.5.2 Definitions of
Probability
Classical, Definition of Probability Let n be the numberrofequally likely, mutually exclusive,
A exhaustive outcomes of outcomes which are
a random experiment. be number of the
favourable to the
occurrence of an event A. The Let m
occurring, denoted by P(4), is
given by probability of event A

P(A) = Number of outcomes favourable to A

Number of exhaustive outcomes
Empirical or Statistical Definition of Probability If an experiment is repeated a lai
of times under identical
conditions, the limiting value of the ratio of the number of times
number

the event a occurs to the total number of trials of the experiment as the number of trials increase
indefinitely is called the probability of occurrence of the event
A.
Let P(A) be the probability of occurrence of the event 4 Let m be the number of times in which an
event A occurs in a series of n trials.

P(A) = lim provided the limit is finite and unique.

Axiomatic Definition of Probability Before discussing the axiomatic definition of probability.

it is necessary to explain certain concepts that are necessary to its understanding.
1. Sample Space Aset of all possible outcomes of arandom experiment is called a sample space.
Each element of the set is called a sample point or a simple event or an elementary event.
The sample space of a random experiment is denoted by S. For example, consider the following:
(a) In a random experiment of tossing of a coin, the sample space consists of two elementary
events.
S= {H, T}
(b In a random experiment of throwing of adice, the sample space consists of six elementary
events.
S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
The elements of Scan either be single elements or ordered pairs. Iftwo coins are tossed, each
element of the [Link] consists of the following ordered pairs:
S= {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}
2. Event Any subset of a sample space is called an event. In the experiment of throwing of a dice
the sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Let A be the event that an odd number appears on the dice
Then 4 = (1 3. 5) is a subset of S. Similarly, let b be tne event of getting a number greater than 3. Then
6= (4, 5, 6} is another subset of S.
Definition of Probability Let Sbe a sample Space of an Cxperiment and Abe any event of
real-value set funo:
as the
this sample space. The probability P(A) of the event A IS dehnedspace S. The probability D l
sample
associates a real value corresponding to a subset Aof the
the following three axioms.
 nonnegative number
probability of an event Is a
Axiom I: PA) > 0, i.e., the certain to occur
probability of an event that is must be equal
Axiom Il: P ( = [Link]. the to
exclusive events then
Axiom 1I: If4,, A,. ..
Aare finite mutually

- P4)+ PA,)+**t PA,)= P A )

P4UA, U...UA)
1.e.. the probability of a union of mutually exclusive cvents is the sum of probabilities he
of
themselves.

17.5.3 Theorems on Probability

Theorem 1 The probability of animpossible event is zero, i.e., P(O) = 0. where ØIS anull
Proof An event which has no sample points is called an impossible event and is denoted by o
For a sample space S of an experiment,
Su= S
Taking probability of both the sides,
P(SU O) = P(S)
Since Sand o are mutually exclusive events,
P(S) + PØ) = P(S) [Using Axiom III]
P(O) =0

Theoren 2 The probability of the complementary event A of Ais

P(A) = 1- P(A)
Proof Let A be an event in the sample space S.
AUA=S

PAUA) = P(S)
Since A and A are mutually exclusive events,
P(A)+ P(A) = P(S)
P(A)+ P(A) =1
[:: P(S) = 1]
P( =1- P(A)
Note Since A and A are mutually exclusive
events,
AUA= Sand A A=
Corollary Probability of an event is always less
than or equal to one, i.c.. P1)>
Proof PA) = 1-PA)
PA)S 1 [: PA) >0 by
Axiom I]
 pe Morgan's Laws Since an event is
a subset of a appli-
cable t oe v e n t s .
Morgan's laws are
samplc space, De
P(AOB)= P(AnB)
P(AnB)- P(AUB)
HISTORICAL DATA
Augustus De Morgan (1806-1871) was a British mathematician and log-
cian. He formulated De Morgan's laws and introduced the term mathematical
induction, making its idea rigorous.
His contributions include De Morgan's laws, De Morgan algebra, Relation
algebra and Universal algebra.
Deyond his great mathematical leracy, the headquarters of the London Matn
ematical Society is called De Moran House and the student society of tne
Mathematics Department of University Collepe London is called the August De Morgan o
The crater De Morgan on the Moon is named after him.

Theorem 3 For any two events A and B in a sample space S,

P(An B)= P(B)- P(An B)
Proof From the Venn diagram (Fig. 17.3),
B=(An B) U(ÃnB)
P(B) =P[(An B)U( B))
Since (4 n B) and (A n B) are mutually exclusive events, AnB AnB
P(B) = P(An B) +P(AnB) Fig. 17.3 Venn diagram
P( =P(B) - P(An B)
Similarly, it can be shown that
P(An B) = P(A)- P(An B)

Theorem 4 Additive Law of Probability (Addition Theorem)

occur is given by
The probability that at least one of the events Aand B will
P(AU B) = P(A)+ P(B) P(AnB)
Proof From the Venn diagram (Fig. 17.3),
AUB= AU(An B)
P(AUB) =P[4U( B)]
Since A and (4 o B) are mutually exclusive events,
Axion I]|
P(AU B) = P(4) +P(An B) [Using
Theorem 3]
= P(A)+ P(B) - P(AnB) [Using
 Engineering Matbematics

17.38

IfA and Bare mutually exclusive events, i.e., AnB= then P(AnB)=0 accordingto Theorem l
Remarks

A UBB)
The eventP(AU
Hence, (i.e., Aor +B)P(B)
= P(A) denotes the occurrence of cither Aor B or both. Alternately,it implie,
2
one of the two events.
the occurrence of at least
AUB=A+B
The event A n B (1.e., A and B) is a compound or joint event that denotes the simultancous
3
occurrence of the two events.

AnB= AB
Corollary 1 From the Venn diagram (Fig. 17.3),
P(AU B) =|- P(AB)
events A and B occur simultaneously.
where P(An B) is the probability that none of the
B)U(AnB)
Corollary 2 P(Exactly one of Aand Boccurs) = P|(An

= P(An B) + P(AoB) [: (AnB)n( B) =¢]

= P(A) - P(An B) + P(B) - P(An B) [Using Theorem 3]
[Using Theorem 4]
=P(A) + P(B) - 2P(An B) = P(AU B)- P(An B)

Corollary 3 The addition theorem can be applied for more than two events. IfA, B, and Care
by
three events of a sample space S then the probability of occurrence of at least one of them is given
P(AUBUC) =P[Au(BUC)]= P(A) +P(BUC)-P[4n(BUC)]
- P(A) +P(BUC)- P[An B)U(AnC))
= P(A) +P(B) +P(C)-P(B^C)- P(An B)-P(AnC)+ P(An BnC)
Applying Theorem 4 on second and third term
Alternately, the probability of occurrence of at least one of the three events can also be written as
P(AUBUC) =|-P(
If 4, B, and C are mutually exclusive events,
P(A U
BU)= P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
Corollary 4 The probability of occurrence of at least two of the three events is given y
P[(An B)(BnC)U(AnC)]
= P(AnB) +P(BnC)+ P(AnC) - 3P(An BnC)+ P(ANBAC) [Using Corollary 3]
= P(AnB) + P(BrC)+ P(AnC)-2P(AnBoC)
 Corollary S The
probabilily of occurence of Cxactly two of the thrce cvents is given by

PltoBnCUdoBoCUnBO
r{AnBU(BaCwAoo) PAoBn) (Usng Corollary 2)
= PLAo B)+
Corollary 6 P(Bn0PAnC)-3P(AO Bo)
The probability of'
(Using Corollary 4]
occurrence of exactly one of the threc events is given by
PlnBnOoABoC)U =Pat least one of the three event occu
events occur)
P (at least two of the three
=()+ P(B)+ P(C)- 2PAO B)-2PBOC)- 2P(AnC) + 3P(Abr
EXAMPLE 17.13
1 a group of 1000 persons. there are 650 who can speak Hindi, 400 can
peak English, and 150 can speak both Hindi and English. fa person is
Selected at random, what is the probability that he speaks (i) Hindi only,
at least one
( ngush only. (ii) only one of thetwo languages, and (iv)
of the two languages?
Solution: Let A and B be the events that a nerson selected at random speaks Hindi and Englisn
respectively.
650 400 150
P(A) = P(B) = ,P(An B)=
1000 1000 1000
(i) Probability that a person selected at random speaks Hindi only
650 150
P(AnB)= P(A) - P(AN B) = 1000 1000 2

(ü) Probability that a person selected at random speaks English only

400 150 1
P(Ãn B)= P(B) -P(An B) = 1000 1000
(ii)) Probability that a person selected at random speaks only one of the languages
650 400 150
P(An B)u(AnB)J= P(A)+ P(B) - 2P(4n B) = 1000 + 1000 -2
1000

(iv) Probability that a person selected at random speaks at least one of the two languages
650 400 150 9
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AnB) = 1000 1000 1000 10

EXAMPLE 17.14 From a city, 3 newspapers A, B, C are being published. A is read by

209%, Bis read by 16%, Cis read by 14%, both Aand Bare read by 8%,
both Aand Care read by 5%, both Band Care read by 4% and all three
A. B. Care read by 2%. What is the probability that a randomlv chosen
person (i) reads at least one of these newspapers, and (i) reads one of
these newspapers?
 Solution: Let4, B, and (be the cvents that the person rcads newspapers A, #, and respectively
PO 014
I)02.
PAC) 005, P O ) 004
PoB) 008,
PAoBaC)002

Probab1lity that the person reads at

lcast one of hesc newspapers
()
IAnC)
PAOBUC)= PA)+PB)+ PC)- PMo)-
0.05- 0.04 +0.02),35
0.2 +0.16+ 0.14- 0.08-
reads none of these newspaperS
(n) Probability that the person
P(AoBOC)=1-PAUBUC)=|-0.35 = 0.65
diagram (Fig. I7.4).
Altemativcly. the problem can be solved by a Venn
65
= 0.35
(1) P(the person reads at least one paper) = 1 100
P(the person reads none of these papers) =0.65 Fig, 174
(i1)

EXERCISE 17.4

4. From a pack of well-shuffled cards, acaz

1. The probability that a student passes a is drawn at random. What is the probabin
2
Physics test is and the probability that that the card drawn is a diamond card or
3
king card?
he passes both Physics and English tests is
14 Ans.:
The probability that he passes at least
45
one test is What is the probability that 5. A bag contains 6 red, 5 blue, 3 white, nc
4 black balls. A ball is drawn at random
the student passes the English test? Find the probability that the ball is (i) re
|Ans.: or black, and(ii) neither red or black.
Ans.:(i) ü
2. What is the probability of drawing a black
card or a king from a well-shufled pack of number
playing cards? 6. There are 100 lottery tickets,
is draW
trom 1 to 100. One of them
probability that t
random. What is the
number on it is a multiple of5 or
7?
3. A pair of unbiased dice is thrown. Find the Ans.: -
probability that (i) the sum of spots is either
5 or 10, and (ii)either there is a doublet or
a sum less than 6. and 4 girs.
7. From a group of 6 boysformed. Find
Committee of 3 is to
be
|Ans.: (i) Gi) 18 committee will inclu
probability that the
 ) all three boys or all
thrce girls, (ii) at 16 cards numbered
I to 16,
most two girls, and (iii) at least 9. From a set of the
one girl. at random. Find
onc card is drawn obtained is
29 probability that (i) the number
Ans.: () (i) or 7, and (ii) not divisible by
30 divisible by 3
3 and 7.
kFrom a pack of S2 cards, three cards are
drawn at random. Find the probability
that
Ans.: (i),16 (i) 2|I6

() all three will be aces or all

(i) all three are pictures or three kings, bulbs in a basket of
which 4
all three are 10. There are 12 them in 3
aces, (ii) none is a picture, (iv) at least one working. A person tries to fit
are
is a picture, (v) none is a spade, (vi) at
Sockets choosing 3 of
the bulbs at random.
two are spades, and (vii) at least onemost that there will be
is a What is the probability
spade. some light, and (ii) no light in the room?
)
2
Ans.: (i) 5225 (i)
S6
(ii) (iv)
47 |Ans.:(i) ci) 55
5225 85
703 839
(v) (vi) (vii) 997
1700 850 1700

Theorem5 Multiplicative Law or Compound Law of Probability

The probabiy
Acompound event is the result of the simultaneous occurrence of two or more event.
of a compound event depends upon whether the events are independent or not. Hence, there are wo
theorems:
(a) Conditional Probability Theorem
(b) Multiplicative Theorem for Independent Events
sample space S, the
(a) Conditional Probability Theorem For any two events A and B in a
simultaneously is given by
probability of their simultaneous occurrence, i.e., both the events occurrings
P(AnB) = P(A) P(BlA) or P(An B) = P(B) P(AIB)
occurred. P(A/B) is the
where P(BIA) is the conditional probability of B given that Ahas already
occurred.
conditional probability of Agiven that B has already
two independent
(b) Multiplicative Theorem for Independent Events If A and B are is given by
simultaneous occurrence
events, the probability of their
P(An B) = P(A) P(B)
P(An B) = P(B) P(AIB) ...(1.1)

Proof A- (4n B)u(AnB)

mutually exclusive events,
Since (AnB) and (AnB) are
P(A) = P(An B) +P(An B) [Using Axiom lII]
=P(B) P(A/B) +P(B) P(AIB)
of 4's in Rio
IfA and Bare independent events, the proportion oT A'S in BIS cqual to proportion
P(A/B) = P(AIB).
 PAIB)|P(B) +P(B)| = P(AIB)
PA) =
Substituting in Eq. (1.). P(A B)= P() P(B)
.:
Remark The additive lawis used to find the probability ol A or B, 0.e., PAu) B).The mulipla

probability ofA and B,

i.c., PA nB).
law is used to find the
events then
Corollary | lfA, B. andC are thrce
P(AnBAC)= P(A)P(BIA) P|CIAoB))
If4, B. and C are independent events,
P(B) P(C)
P(An BoC) = P(A)
Corollary 2 IfAand! Bare independent events then Aand B, Aand B, Aand Bare also independe

events A.,B,
of occurrence of at least one of the Cis given by
Corollary 3 The probability
P(AUBUC) = 1-P(inBoC)

complements will also be independent.

lfA, B, and Care independent events, their
P(AUBUC) =1-P(A) P(B) P(C)

Pairwise Independence and Mutual Independence The events 4, B, and

Carem.
independent if the following conditions are satisfied simultaneously:
P(An B) = P(A) P(B)
P(BnC)= P(B) P(C)
P(AnC) = P(A) P(C)
and P(AnBC)= P(A) P(B) P(C)
If the last condition is not satisfied, the events are said to be pairwise independent. Hence, mutual
independent events are always pairwise independent but not vices versa.
EXAMPLE 17.15 The probability that astudent Asolves a mathematics problem is
2
the probability that a student B solves it is What is the probabin
3
that (i) the problem is not solved, (ü) the problem is solved, and (ii) bet
Aand B, working independently of eachother, solve the problem?
Solution: Let Aand Bbe events that students AandB solve the problem respectively.

PS=, PLI) =
Events A and B are independent.
Probability that the student A does not solve the problem

P(*)=1-P(A) =1 5 5
 that the
Probability
student B does not solve the
problem
2
P(B) =|-PB)=1
) Probability that the problem is not 3 3

solved
P(AnB)= P(A) PB) =3 I1
5 3 5
(i) Probability that the
problem is solved
1 4
P(AU B) =1- P(nB) =l
(ii) Probability that both Aand B
solve the problem
22 4
P(AO B) = P(A) P(B) =X715
3
whose
EXAMPLE n6 proolem in statistics is given to three students A, B, and C,
respectively. Find
chances of solving it independently are 2'3 and 4-
the probability that
() the problem is solved problem
(ii) at least two ofthem are able to solve the
problem
(iii) exactly two of them are able to solve the
(iv) exactly one of them is able to solve the problem
Solution: Let A, B, and Cbe the events that students
A, B. and C solve the problem respectively.

1
P(M)=;, P(B)=; PC)=
Events A, B, and C are independent.
is solved or at least one of them is able to solve the problem is same.
(i) Probability that the problem P(AnBoC)
P(AnB)-P(AnC)- P(BnC) +
P(AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)-
P(C) P(A) P(B) - P(A) P(C) P(B) P(C) + P(A) P(B) P(C)
= P(A) + P(B) +

are able to solve the problem

Probability that at least two of them
(ii)
2PAnBOC)
B)U(BAC)U(4nC)]=P(An B) +P(BnC) + P(AnC)- P(4) P(B) P(C)
Pl(An = P(A) P(B) + P(B) P(C) + P(A) P(C)- 2
7
-(-)-6-3-G)-(+) 24
 problem
exactly two of them are able to solve the
(111) Probability that
Bnc)U(Än BoC)]
P[an BoÕ)U(An BoC)
P(AnB) +P(BnC)+ P(AnC)-3P(An
= P(C)- 3P(4) P(B) P(C)
+ P(B) P(C) + P(A)
= P(A) P(B)

problem
(iv) Probability that exactly one of them is able to solve the
P[AnBn )U( nBo©U(ãnB)]
nC)-2P(AnC)+3P(AO Roo
=P(A)'+ P(B) +P(C)- 2P(An B) 2P(B

EXAMPLE 17.17 Ahusband and wife appeared in an interview jor two vacancies in
1
office. The probability of the husband's selection is and that of the
wife's selection is Find the probability that () both of them ae
5
selected, (ii) only one of them is selected, (ii) none of them is selected
and (iv) at least one of them is selected.

Solution: Let A and B be the events that the husband and wife are selected respectively.
1
P(A) =; P(B) =
Events A and B are independent.
) Probability that both of them are selected

P(An B) =P(A) P(B)=x

75 35
(ii) Probability that at least one of them is selected

P(AUB) =P(A) +P(B) -P(AnB) = 1

75 35 35
(ii) Probability that none of them is selected

P(AnB) =|-P(AUB) =l~l_24

35 35
(iv) Probability that only one of them is
selected
PÍ(An B)u( =P(AUB)- P(AO B)= - 10 2
35 35 35 7
 .Eudthe probbility
i of drawng
SuCcession
ani S lrom a bag 2 red balls
black balls when containing 4 red
the ball Ans.:) n),,
ist is{) not that is
replaced, and (replaceddrawn
7 Two cards are drawn from a well-shuftled
Ans.:i) pack of 52 cards Findthe probab1l1ty that
, they are hoth aces if the first card s )
Twoaeroplanes bombatargetin
The replaced, and (i) not replaced
probability of succession
hut is 0.3 and 0.2 cach corectly scoing a Ans.:)
will bonnb only if respectively. The second 169 221
the
first misses the
Fnd the probability target. 8. A can hit a target 2 tines in 5 shots, B. 3
and (i) both fail to
that (i) the target is hit. times in 4 shots, and C. 2 times in 3 shots
score hits.
They firea volley What is the probabilty
Ans.:(i)0.44 (1) 0.56) that at least 2 shots hit the tarzet?
1. Box Acontains 5 red
and 3 white marbles Ans. 23
V and Box B contains
2 red
marbles. If a marble is drawnand 6 white 9. There are two bags. The first bag contains
box, what is the probability thatfrom cach 5 red and 7 white balls and the second bag
both of the same colour? they are contains3 red and 12 white balls. One ball
is taken out at random from the first bag
[Ans.: 0.109) and is put in the second bag. Now, a ball
4. Two marbles are drawn in is drawn from the second bag. What is the
succession from
a box containing l0 red, 30 white, 20 blue, probability that this last ball is red?
and 15 orange marbles, with replacement Ans.:
41
being made after each draw. Find the 192
probability that (i) both are white, and
(ii) the first is red and the second is white. 10. In a shooting competition, the probability
2
4 4
of Ahitting the target is 2' of B, is and
Ans.: (i) 25 (i) 75 3
3
of C, is 1f all of them fire at the target,
4
5. A, B, C are aiming to shoot a balloon. A
will succeed 4 times out of 5 attempts. The find the probability that (i) none of them
chance of B to shoot the balloon is 3 out of4,
hits the target, and (ii) at least one of them
hits the target.
and that of Cis 2 out of [Link] the three aim the
balloon simultaneously, find the probability Ans.: (i) ()3
that at least two of them hit the
balloon. 24
Ans: 11. The odds against a student X solving a
statistics problem are 12 to 10 and the
numberedIto 12 in a odds in favour of a student Ysolving the
6. There are 12 cards problem are 6 to 9, What is the probability
selected, what is the
box. If two cards are with that the problem will be solved when both
probabilitythat the sum is odd (i) try independently of each other
replacement, and (ii)
without replacement?
 probability of this is Find the
100
probability of his getting married to
such
12. A bag contains 6 white and 9 black balls. a girl when the possessions of these three
attributes are independent.
Four balls are drawn at random twice. Find
the probability that the first draw will give Ans.:
4 white balls and the second draw will give
4 black balls if (i) the balls are replaced, 100000
and (ii) the balls are not replaced before the 15. Asmall town has one fire engine and
second draw. ambulance available for emergencies, Th
probability that the fire engine is available
when needed is 0.98 and the probability
that the ambulance is available wb
13. An urn contains 10 white and 3 black balls. called is 0.92. In the event of an iniun,
Another un contains 3 white and 5 black
balls. Two balls are transferred from the
resulting from a burning building, find the
probability that both the fire engine and
first urm to the second urn and then one ambulance will be available.
ball is drawn from the latter. What is the
probability that the ball drawn is white? [Ans.:0.9016]
5
Ans.:
26
16. In a certain community, 36% of the
families own a dog and 22% of the families
14. A mnan wants to marry a girl having the that own a dog also own a cat. In addition.
following qualities: fair complexion-the 30% of the families own a cat. What is the
probability that (i) a randomly selected
probability of getting such a girl is 20 family owns both a dog and a cat, and (ü)
a randomly selected family owns a dog
1 given that it owns a cat?
handsome dowry-the probability is 50
westernized manners and etiquettes--the [Ans.:(i) 0.0792 (ii) 0.264)