beg-`kg †kÖwY : D”PZi MwYZ  565

PZz`©k Aa¨vq
m¤¢vebv

cvV m¤úwK©Z MyiæZ¡c~Y© welqvw`

 m¤¢vebvi mv‡_ RwoZ wKQz k‡ãi aviYv :

 ˆ`e cixÿv (Random Experiment) : hLb †Kv‡bv cixÿvi m¤¢ve¨ mKj djvdj Av‡M †_‡K Rvbv _v‡K wKš‘
cixÿvwU‡Z †Kv‡bv GKwU wbw`©ó †Póvq Kx djvdj Avm‡e Zv wbwðZ K‡i ejv hvq bv, G‡K ˆ`e
cixÿv e‡j| †hgb, GKUv gy`ªv wb‡ÿc cixÿvi m¤¢ve¨ djvdj Head (H), Tail (T) n‡e, Zv Avgiv Av‡M
†_‡KB Rvwb wKš‘ †Kvb djvdjwU NU‡e gy`ªvwU wb‡ÿ‡ci c~‡e© Zv Avgiv wbwðZ K‡i ej‡Z
cvwi bv| myZivs gy`ªv wb‡ÿc cixÿv GKUv ˆ`e cixÿv|
 NUbv (Event) : †Kv‡bv cixÿvi djvdj ev djvd‡ji mgv‡ek‡K NUbv e‡j| D`vniY¯^iƒc GKUv Q°v
wb‡ÿc cixÿvq Ô3' cvIqv GKUv NUbv| Avevi †Rvo msL¨v cvIqvI GKwU NUbv|
 mgm¤¢ve¨ NUbvewj (Equally Likely Events) : †Kv‡bv cixÿvi NUbv¸‡jv NUvi m¤¢vebv mgvb nq
A_©vr GKwU AciwUi †P‡q †ewk ev Kg m¤¢ve¨ bv nq, Z‡e NUbv¸‡jv‡K mgm¤¢ve¨ e‡j| †hgb
GKUv wbi‡cÿ gy`ªv wb‡ÿ‡c †nW ev †Uj Avmvi m¤¢vebv mgvb mgvb| myZivs †nW Avmv I
†Uj Avmv NUbv `yBwU mgm¤¢ve¨ NUbv|
 ci¯úi wew”Qbœ NUbvewj (Mutually Exclusive Events) : †Kv‡bv cixÿvq hw` GKUv NUbv NU‡j
Ab¨Uv A_ev Ab¨ NUbv¸‡jv bv NU‡Z cv‡i Z‡e D³ NUbv¸‡jv‡K ci¯úi wew”Qbœ NUbv e‡j| †hgb,
GKUv wbi‡cÿ gy`ªv wb‡ÿc Ki‡j †nW Avmv ev †Uj Avmv `yBwU wew”Qbœ NUbv| †Kbbv †nW
Avm‡j †Uj Avm‡Z cv‡i bv| Avevi †Uj Avm‡j †nW Avm‡Z cv‡i bv| A_©vr †nW I †Uj GKmv‡_
Avm‡Z cv‡i bv|
 AbyK‚j djvdj (Favourable Outcomes) : †Kv‡bv cixÿvq GKUv NUbvi ¯^c‡ÿi djvdj‡K D³ NUbvi AbyK‚j
djvdj e‡j| †hgb, GKwU Q°v wb‡ÿc Ki‡j we‡Rvo msL¨v nIqvi AbyK‚j djvdj 3 wU|
 bgybv‡ÿÎ (Sample Space) : †Kv‡bv ˆ`e cixÿvi m¤¢ve¨ mKj djvdj wb‡q MwVZ †mU‡K bgybv‡ÿÎ
e‡j| GKUv gy`ªv wb‡ÿc Ki‡j `yBwU m¤¢ve¨ djvdj cvIqv hvq| h_v †nW (H) I †Uj (T). GLb S Øviv G
cixÿ‡Yi djvd‡ji †mU‡K m~wPZ Ki‡j bgybv‡ÿÎ S = {H, T}.
 bgybv we›`y (Sample Point) : bgybv‡ÿ‡Îi cÖwZwU Dcv`vb‡K djvd‡ji bgybv we›`y e‡j| GKUv
gy`ªv GKevi wb‡ÿc cixÿvq bgybv‡ÿÎ S = {H, T} Ges GLv‡b H, T cÖ‡Z¨‡KB GK GKwU bgybv
we›`y|
 `ywU we‡kl ai‡bi NUbv:
wbwðZ NUbv : †Kv‡bv cixÿvq †h NUbv Aek¨B NU‡e G‡K wbwðZ NUbv e‡j|
D`vniY : AvMvgxKvj m~h© c~e© w`K †_‡K DV‡e AvR m~h© cwðg w`‡K A¯Í hv‡e| G¸‡jvi
cÖ‡Z¨KwU wbwðZ NUbvi m¤¢vebv|
 Am¤¢e NUbv : †Kv‡bv cixÿvq †h NUbv KL‡bv NU‡e bv A_©vr NU‡Z cv‡i bv G‡K Am¤¢e
NUbv e‡j| Am¤¢e NUbvi m¤¢vebv me mgq k~b¨ nq|
D`vniY : AvMvgxKvj m~h© cwðg w`‡K DV‡e A_ev m~h© c~e©w`‡K A¯Í hv‡e, Am¤¢e
NUbvi m¤¢vebv k~b¨| G¸‡jvi cÖ‡Z¨KwU NUbvB Am¤¢e NUbv|
GK bR‡i G Abykxjbx‡Z e¨eüZ m~Îmg~n :
 †Kv‡bv NUbv NUvi m¤¢vebv =
 †Kv‡bv NUbv NUv Ges bv NUvi m¤¢vebvi †hvMdj|
 †h‡Kv‡bv NUbvi m¤¢vebv 0 †_‡K 1 Gi g‡a¨ _vK‡e|
 beg-`kg †kÖwY : D”PZi MwYZ  566
 NUbv NUvi m¤¢vebv P(A) n‡j O < P(A) < 1
A
 hw` †Kv‡bv GKwU cixÿ‡Yi †gvU m¤¢ve¨ djvdj A Ges Aci GKwU cixÿ‡Yi †gvU m¤¢ve¨ djvdj
B nq Zvn‡j cixÿv `yBwU GK‡Î msNwUZ n‡j †gvU m¤¢ve¨ djvdj = A  B
 bgybv‡ÿ‡Îi AvKvi †ek eo n‡j Probability tree Gi mvnv‡h¨ bgybv‡ÿÎ ˆZwi Kiv hvq Ges wewfbœ NUbvi
m¤¢vebv wbY©q Kiv hvq|

Abykxjbxi cÖkœ I mgvavb

1. GKwU Q°v gvi‡j 3 DVvi m¤¢vebv i. †_‡K 30 ch©šÍ µwgK b¤^‡ii g‡a¨ †gvU
1
†KvbwU? †Rvo msL¨v 15wU| †Rvo msL¨v cvIqvi
 L M N AbyK‚j NUbv = 15wU
wb‡Pi Z_¨ †_‡K 2 I 3 b¤^i cÖ‡kœi DËi `vI  P †Rvo msL¨v =
: = = (Ans.)
GKwU _wj‡Z bxj ej 12wU, mv`v ej 16wU Ges ii. 1 †_‡K 30 ch©šÍ µwgK b¤^‡ii g‡a¨ 4 Øviv
Kv‡jv ej 20wU Av‡Q| ˆ`efv‡e GKUv ej †bIqv wefvR¨ msL¨v 7wU h_v : 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, 28|
n‡jv| myZivs AbyK‚j djvdj 7wU|
2. ejwU bxj nIqvi m¤¢vebv KZ?  P (4 Øviv wefvR¨) = (Ans.)
K L M 
iii. 1 †_‡K 30 ch©šÍ µwgK b¤^‡ii g‡a¨ 8 Gi
3. ejwU mv`v bv nIqvi m¤¢vebv KZ?
†P‡q †QvU µwgK b¤^i 7wU| h_v : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
K  M N
6, 7
wb‡gœi Z_¨ †_‡K 4 I 5 b¤^i cÖ‡kœi DËi
myZivs AbyK‚j djvdj 7wU|
`vI :
 P (8 Gi †P‡q †QvU) = (Ans.)
GKwU gy`ªv‡K wZbevi wb‡ÿc Kiv n‡jv|
iv. wU‡KU¸‡jv‡Z 22 Gi †P‡q eo µwgK b¤^i
4. me©vwaK evi H Avmvi m¤¢vebv
8wU h_v : 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30.
KZ?
myZivs AbyK‚j djvdj 8wU|
 1 evi L 2 evi M 3 evi N 4 evi
 P (22 Gi †P‡q eo) = = (Ans.)
5. me‡P‡q Kg msL¨K evi T Avmvi m¤
cÖkœ \ 8 \ †Kv‡bv GKwU jUvwi‡Z 570wU
¢vebv KZ?
wU‡KU wewµ n‡q‡Q| iwng 15wU wU‡KU
K 0 L M 1 N 2
wK‡b‡Q| wU‡KU¸‡jv fv‡jvfv‡e wgwk‡q
[ mwVK DËi : ]
GKwU wU‡KU ˆ`efv‡e cÖ_g cyi¯‹v‡ii Rb¨
6. PÆMÖvg AvenvIqv Awd‡mi
†Zvjv n‡jv| iwn‡gi cÖ_g cyi¯‹vi cvIqvi
wi‡cvU© Abyhvqx 2012 mv‡ji RyjvB
m¤¢vebv KZ?
gv‡mi 1g mßv‡n e„wó n‡q‡Q †gvU 5
mgvavb : †gvU wU‡KU wewµ n‡q‡Q =
w`b| †mvgevi e„wó bv nIqvi m¤
570wU
¢vebv KZ?
K  M N 1
iwng wU‡KU wK‡b‡Q = 15wU
cÖkœ \ 7 \ 30wU wU‡K‡U 1 †_‡K 30 ch©šÍ  iwn‡gi cÖ_g cyi¯‹vi cvIqvi m¤¢vebv = =
(Ans.)
µwgK b¤^i †`qv Av‡Q| wU‡KU¸‡jv
fv‡jvfv‡e wgwk‡q GKwU wU‡KU ˆ`efv‡e cÖkœ \ 9 \ GKUv Q°v GKevi wb‡ÿc Kiv
†bqv n‡jv| wU‡KUwU (i) †Rvo msL¨v (ii) n‡j †Rvo msL¨v A_ev wZb Øviv wefvR¨
Pvi Øviv wefvR¨ (iii) 8 Gi †P‡q †QvU (iv) 22 msL¨v DVvi m¤¢vebv KZ?
Gi †P‡q eonIqvi m¤¢vebv¸‡jv wbY©q mgvavb : GKUv Q°v wb‡ÿc cixÿvq bgybv
Ki| †ÿÎ : {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
mgvavb : wU‡KU¸‡jv‡Z 1 †_‡K 30 ch©šÍ  mgMÖ m¤¢ve¨ djvdj 6
µwgK b¤^i †`Iqv Av‡Q| myZivs mgMÖ m¤
¢ve¨ djvdj 30|
 beg-`kg †kÖwY : D”PZi MwYZ  567
GKUv Q°vq †Rvo msL¨v Av‡Q 3wU, h_v : {2, 4, 1wU UªvwdK AvBb f½ K‡i‡Q Ggb WªvBfv‡ii
6}| myZivs †Rvo msL¨v cvIqvi AbyK‚j djvdj msL¨v = 46
3wU  wbe©vwPZ WªvBfviwUi 1wU AvBb f½ Kivi
 P (†Rvo msL¨v) = = = m¤¢vebv =
Avevi, 3 Øviv wefvR¨ msL¨v 2wU, h_v : {3, 6}| =
myZivs 3 Øviv wefvR¨ msL¨v cvIqvi AbyK‚j Avevi,
djvdj 2wU| 4 Gi AwaK AvBb f½ K‡i‡Q Ggb WªvBfv‡ii

 P (3 Øviv wefvR¨ msL¨v) = = = msL¨v = 5

†h‡nZz †Rvo msL¨v Ges 3 Øviv wefvR¨  wbe©vwPZ WªvBfviwUi 4 Gi AwaK AvBb f½
msL¨v Df‡qi g‡a¨ 6 AšÍfy©³| myZivs †Rvo Kivi m¤¢vebv =
=
msL¨v Ges 3 Øviv wefvR¨ msL¨v cvIqvi
wb‡Y©q m¤¢vebv Ges
AbyK‚j djvdj 1wU|
cÖkœ \ 12 \ †Kv‡bv GKwU d¨v±wi‡Z
 P (†Rvo msL¨v Ges 3 Øviv wefvR¨ msL¨v) =
wb‡qvMK…Z †jvK‡`i Kv‡Ri aiY Abyhvqx
 P (†Rvo msL¨v A_ev 3 Øviv wefvR¨) =
wbgœfv‡e †kªwYK…Z Kiv hvq :
P (†Rvo msL¨v) + P (3 Øviv wefvR¨)  P (†Rvo
msL¨v Ges 3 Øviv wefvR¨) †kªwYKiY msL¨v
= +  = = = (Ans.) e¨e¯’vcbvq 157
cÖkœ \ 10 \ †Kv‡bv GKwU ¯^v¯’¨ †K‡›`ªi cwi`k©K wn‡m‡e 52
wi‡cvU© Abyhvqx 155 wkï Kg IR‡bi, 386 Drcv`b Kv‡R 1473
wkï ¯^vfvweK IR‡bi Ges 98wU wkï †ewk Awdwmqvj Kv‡R 215
IR‡bi Rb¥ †bq| GLvb n‡Z GKwU wkï GKRb‡K ˆ`efv‡e wbe©vPb Ki‡j †jvKwU
ˆ`efv‡e wbe©vPb Ki‡j wbe©vwPZ e¨e¯’vcbvq wb‡qvwRZ Gi m¤¢vebv KZ?
wkïwU †ewk IR‡bi n‡e Gi m¤¢vebv KZ? †jvKwU e¨e¯’vcbvq A_ev Drcv`b Kv‡R
mgvavb : ¯^v¯’¨ †K‡›`ª †gvU wkï Rb¥ †bq wb‡qvwRZ Gi m¤¢vebv KZ?
(155 + 386 + 98) = 639 Rb| ˆ`efv‡e GKRb wkï †jvKwU Drcv`b Kv‡R wb‡qvwRZ bq Gi m¤
wbe©vPb Ki‡j 639 R‡bi †h †Kv‡bv GKRb wkï ¢vebv KZ?
Avm‡Z cv‡i| mgvavb : d¨v±wi‡Z wb‡qvMK…Z †gvU
 mgMÖ m¤¢ve¨ djvdj = 639 †jv‡Ki msL¨v =
†ewk IR‡bi wkïi AbyK‚‡j m¤¢ve¨ djvdj = 98 (157 + 52 + 1473 + 215) Rb = 1897 Rb
myZivs †ewk IR‡bi wkï Rb¥ †bIqvi m¤¢vebv e¨e¯’vcbvq wb‡qvwRZ †jv‡Ki msL¨v 157 Rb
= (Ans.)  †jvKwUi e¨e¯’vcbvq wb‡qvwRZ nIqvi m¤
cÖkœ \ 11 \ `yB nvRvi jvB‡mÝ cÖvß ¢vebv = (Ans.)
WªvBfvi GK eQ‡i wbgœwjwLZ msL¨K Avevi, Drcv`b Kv‡R wb‡qvwRZ †jv‡Ki msL¨v
UªvwdK AvBb f½ K‡i| = 1473 Rb
UªvwdK AvBb WªvBfv‡ii msL¨v  Drcv`b Kv‡R wb‡qvwRZ nIqvi m¤¢vebv =
f‡½i msL¨v myZivs †jvKwUi e¨e¯’vcbvq A_ev Drcv`b
0 1910 Kv‡R wb‡qvwRZ nIqvi m¤¢vebv = + = =
1 46 (Ans.)
2 18 Drcv`b Kv‡R wb‡qvwRZ bq Ggb †jv‡Ki
3 12
msL¨v
4 9
= (157 + 52 + 215) = 424
5 ev Zvi AwaK 5
 †jvKwU Drcv`b Kv‡R wb‡qvwRZ bq Ggb m¤
GKRb WªvBfvi‡K ˆ`efv‡e wbe©vPb Ki‡j ¢vebv = (Ans.)
WªvBfviwUi 1wU AvBb f½ Kivi m¤¢vebv KZ?
cÖkœ \ 13 \ 1wU gy`ªv I 1wU Q°v wb‡ÿc
WªvBfviwUi 4 Gi AwaK AvBb f½ Kivi m¤
NUbvq Probability tree ˆZwi Ki|
¢vebv KZ?
mgvavb : GKwU gy`ªv I GKwU Q°v wb‡ÿc
mgvavb : †gvU WªvBfv‡ii msL¨v
NUbv‡K `yB avc wn‡m‡e we‡ePbv Kwi|
= (1910 + 46 + 18 + 12 + 9 + 5) Rb = 2000 Rb
 beg-`kg †kÖwY : D”PZi MwYZ  568
cÖ_g av‡c gy`ªv wb‡ÿ‡c 2wU djvdj { H A_ev cÖkœ \ 15 \ †Kv‡bv GKRb †jv‡Ki XvKv
T } Avm‡Z cv‡i| n‡Z ivRkvnx †Uª‡b hvIqvi m¤¢vebv Ges
wØZxq av‡c Q°v wb‡ÿ‡c 6wU djvdj {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ivRkvnx n‡Z Lyjbv ev‡m hvIqvi m¤
6} Avm‡Z cv‡i| ZvB cixÿvq †gvU djvdj‡K ¢vebv . Probability tree e¨envi K‡i †jvKwU
Probability Tree Gi mvnv‡h¨ wbgœfv‡e †`Lv‡bv XvKv n‡Z ivRkvnx †Uª‡b bq Ges
hv‡e : ivRkvnx n‡Z Lyjbv ev‡m hvIqvi m¤
¢vebv KZ †ei Ki| †jvKwU ivRkvnx †Uª‡b
wKš‘ Lyjbv ev‡m bv hvIqvi m¤¢vebv †ei
Ki|
mgvavb : wb‡P †jvKwUi wewfbœ Dcv‡q
XvKv n‡Z ivRkvnx Ges ivRkvnx n‡Z Lyjbv
hvIqvi Probability Tree †`Lv‡bv n‡jv|

cÖkœ \ 14 \ Probability tree Gi mvnv‡h¨ wb‡Pi

QKwU c~iY Ki :
gy`ªv wb‡ÿc mKj m¤¢ve¨ m¤
djvdj ¢vebv
GKevi gy`ªv P(T) =
wb‡ÿc m¤¢vebvi gva¨‡g Probability Tree n‡e :
`yBevi gy`ªv P(1H) =
P(HT) =
wb‡ÿc
wZbevi gy`ªv P(HHT) =
P(2H) =
wb‡ÿc
mgvavb : cÖwZwU gy`ªv wb‡ÿc‡K GK
GKwU avc wn‡m‡e awi| cÖwZav‡c 2wU djvdj
H A_ev T Avm‡Z cv‡i| †gvU djvdj Probability tree myZivs XvKv n‡Z ivRkvnx †Uª‡b bq Ges
Gi mvnv‡h¨ wbgœfv‡e †`Lv‡bv hvq : ivRkvnx n‡Z †jvKwUi Lyjbv ev‡m hvIqvi m¤
¢vebv = P(ivRkvnx †Uª‡b bq, Lyjbv ev‡m)
=  = (Ans.)
Avevi, †jvKwUi ivRkvnx †Uª‡b Ges Lyjbv
ev‡m bv hvIqvi m¤¢vebv = P (ivRkvnx †Uª‡b,
Lyjbv ev‡m bq)
=  = (Ans.)

cÖkœ \ 16 \ GKRb †jvK XvKv n‡Z

ivRkvnx †Uª‡b hvIqvi m¤¢vebv , ev‡m
mviwYwU wbgœiƒc : hvIqvi m¤¢vebv , †cø‡b hvIqvi m¤¢vebv
gy`ªv mKj m¤¢ve¨ m¤ | †jvKwUi ivRkvnx n‡Z Lyjbvq ev‡m
wb‡ÿc djvdj ¢vebv hvIqvi m¤¢vebv Ges †Uª‡b hvIqvi m¤
GKevi gy`ªv {H,T} P( T ) = ¢vebv | Probability tree e¨envi K‡i †jvKwU
wb‡ÿc ivRkvnx †Uª‡b Ges Lyjbvq ev‡m hvIqvi
`yBevi {HH, HT, TH, TT} P( 1H ) = = m¤¢vebv †ei Ki|
P( HT ) = mgvavb : Probability tree wbgœiƒc :
gy`ªv
wb‡ÿc
wZbevi {HHH, HHT, HTH, P( HHT ) =
HTT,THH,THT, TTH, P( 2H ) =
gy`ªv
TTT}
wb‡ÿc
 beg-`kg †kÖwY : D”PZi MwYZ  569
L. cÖ_‡g gy`ªv PviwU‡K Pvi av‡c wn‡m‡e
we‡ePbv Kiv Ges cÖwZ av‡c 2wU djvdj { L
A_ev C } Avm‡Z cv‡i| myZivs †gvU djvdj‡K
Probability tree Gi mvnv‡h¨ wbgœfv‡e
†`Lv‡bv hv‡e :

m¤¢vebvi gva¨‡g Probability tree n‡e :

myZivs †jvKwUi ivRkvnx †Uª‡b Ges Lyjbvq

ev‡m hvIqvi m¤¢vebv, P (ivRkvnx †Uª‡b,
Lyjbv ev‡m) =  = (Ans.)
cÖkœ \ 17 \ GKwU `yB UvKvi gy`ªv Pvi
evi wb‡ÿc Kiv n‡jv| (Gi kvcjvi wcV‡K L
Ges cÖv_wgK wkÿvi wkïi wcV‡K C m¤¢ve¨ bgybv we›`y¸‡jv LLLL, LLLC, LLCL,
we‡ePbv Ki) LLCC, LCLL, LCLC, LCCL, LCCC, CLLL, CLLC, CLCL,
CLCC, CCLL, CCLC, CCCL, CCCC.
K. hw` gy`ªvwU‡K Pviev‡ii cwie‡Z©
Zvn‡j bgybv‡ÿÎwU n‡e :
`yBevi wb‡ÿc Kiv nq Z‡e GKwU L
{LLLL, LLLC, LLCL, LLCC, LCLL, LCLC, LCCL, LCCC,
Avmvi m¤¢vebv Ges GKwU C bv Avmvi CLLL, CLLC, CLCL, CLCC, CCLL, CCLC, CCCL, CCCC}
m¤¢vebv KZ?
L. m¤¢ve¨ NUbvi Probability Tree A¼b Ki| Ges
bgybv †ÿÎwU wjL|
M. †`LvI †h, gy`ªvwU n msL¨K evi wb‡ÿc Ki‡j
msNwUZ NUbv 2n †K mg_©b K‡i|
mgvavb :
K. `yBwU gy`ªv wb‡ÿc cixÿv‡K `yB avc
wn‡m‡e we‡ePbv Kiv hvq| cÖwZ av‡c
2wU djvdj { L A_ev C } Avm‡Z cv‡i| myZivs
†gvU djvdj‡K Probability tree Gi mvnv‡h¨
wb‡gœv³fv‡e †`Lv‡bv hvq

m¤¢ve¨ bgybv we›`y¸‡jv LL, LC, CL, CC

Zvn‡j bgybv †ÿÎwU n‡e { LL, LC, CL, CC }
myZivs GKwU L Avmvi m¤¢vebv = =
Avevi, GKwU C Avmvi m¤¢vebv = =
 GKwU C bv Avmvi m¤¢vebv = 1 = (Ans.)
 beg-`kg †kÖwY : D”PZi MwYZ  570
M. ÔLÕ bs Gi Probability tree we‡kølY K‡i cvB, Pvievi gy`ªv wb‡ÿc cixÿvq bgybv we›`yi
GKevi gy`ªv wb‡ÿc cixÿvq bgybv we›`yi msL¨v = 16 = 24
msL¨v = 2 = 21  n evi gy`ªv wb‡ÿc cixÿvq bgybv we›`yi
`yBevi gy`ªv wb‡ÿc cixÿvq bgybv we›`yi msL¨v = 2n.
msL¨v = 4 = 22 (†`Lv‡bv n‡jv)
wZbevi gy`ªv wb‡ÿc cixÿvq bgybv we›`yi
msL¨v = 8 = 23