A-Level Mathematics

PROBABILITY
Compiled by Patricia F Chitsungo
Teaching Notes & Worked Examples
Form 5 – 6 | Zimbabwe A-Level Syllabus

1. Basic Probability Concepts

1.1 Key Definitions
Term Definition / Notes
Experiment Any process with a well-defined set of outcomes (e.g.
rolling a die).
Sample Space (S) The set of ALL possible outcomes. |S| = total number of
outcomes.
Event (A) Any subset of the sample space.
Probability P(A) A number in [0, 1] measuring how likely event A is.
Certain event P(S) = 1 (something must happen)
Impossible event P(∅) = 0 (nothing happens)

1.2 Classical (Theoretical) Probability

P(A) = (Number of favourable outcomes) / (Total number of equally likely outcomes)

EXAMPLE 1 – Standard die

A fair six-sided die is rolled once.
(a) P(even number) = 3/6 = 1/2
(b) P(number > 4) = 2/6 = 1/3
(c) P(prime) = 3/6 = 1/2 [primes on a die: 2, 3, 5]

1.3 Complementary Events

P(A') = 1 – P(A) where A' is 'not A'

EXAMPLE 2 – Using complement

The probability that a student passes an exam is 0.72.
P(student fails) = 1 – 0.72 = 0.28
2. Combined Events
2.1 Mutually Exclusive Events
Definition: Events A and B are mutually exclusive if they cannot both occur; A ∩ B = ∅.

P(A or B) = P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) [Addition Rule – mutually exclusive]

EXAMPLE 3 – Drawing a card

One card is drawn from a standard 52-card deck.
Let A = {Ace}, B = {King}. These are mutually exclusive.
P(Ace or King) = 4/52 + 4/52 = 8/52 = 2/13

2.2 General Addition Rule (Non-mutually Exclusive)

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

EXAMPLE 4 – Venn diagram approach

In a group of 30 students: 18 study Physics, 14 study Chemistry, 8 study both.
One student is chosen at random.
P(Physics ∪ Chemistry) = 18/30 + 14/30 – 8/30 = 24/30 = 4/5
P(neither subject) = 1 – 4/5 = 1/5 → 6 students study neither

2.3 Independent Events

Definition: A and B are independent if the occurrence of one does NOT affect the other.

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) [Multiplication Rule – independent events]

EXAMPLE 5 – Coin and die

A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. These are independent.
P(Head AND 6) = 1/2 × 1/6 = 1/12

EXAMPLE 6 – Checking independence

P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.3, P(A ∩ B) = 0.12
P(A) × P(B) = 0.4 × 0.3 = 0.12 = P(A ∩ B) ✓ → Independent
3. Conditional Probability
3.1 Definition & Formula
The probability of A given that B has already occurred:

P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B) [provided P(B) > 0]

Rearrangement: P(A ∩ B) = P(B) × P(A | B) (Multiplication Rule – general form)

EXAMPLE 7 – From a table

A bag contains 5 red and 3 blue balls. Two are drawn WITHOUT replacement.
P(2nd is red | 1st was red) = 4/7
P(both red) = P(1st red) × P(2nd red | 1st red) = 5/8 × 4/7 = 20/56 = 5/14

3.2 Tree Diagrams

Tree diagrams are the most reliable tool for multi-stage experiments.
Rules: (1) Multiply along branches for AND. (2) Add separate branches for OR.

EXAMPLE 8 – Faulty machine

Machine A makes 60% of output; Machine B makes 40%.
Defect rates: A → 3%, B → 5%.

P(defective) = P(A) × P(D|A) + P(B) × P(D|B)

= 0.60 × 0.03 + 0.40 × 0.05
= 0.018 + 0.020 = 0.038

P(from A | defective) = P(A ∩ D) / P(D) = 0.018 / 0.038 ≈ 0.474

3.3 Bayes' Theorem

P(A | B) = P(A) × P(B | A) / [ P(A) × P(B|A) + P(A') × P(B|A') ]
This is simply conditional probability applied with the Law of Total Probability in the denominator. Tree
diagrams always give the same answer—use whichever feels clearer.

EXAMPLE 9 – Medical test

A disease affects 1% of the population. A test is 95% accurate:
P(positive | has disease) = 0.95, P(positive | no disease) = 0.04

P(disease | positive test):

Numerator = 0.01 × 0.95 = 0.0095
Denominator = 0.01×0.95 + 0.99×0.04 = 0.0095 + 0.0396 = 0.0491
P(disease | +) = 0.0095 / 0.0491 ≈ 0.193 (about 19%) ← surprising!
4. Discrete Probability Distributions
4.1 Requirements for a Valid Distribution
(i) 0 ≤ P(X = x) ≤ 1 for all x (ii) Σ P(X = x) = 1 (probabilities sum to 1)

EXAMPLE 10 – Find missing probability

X can take values 1, 2, 3, 4 with P(X=1)=0.2, P(X=2)=0.35, P(X=3)=k, P(X=4)=0.1
Sum = 1 → 0.2 + 0.35 + k + 0.1 = 1 → k = 0.35

4.2 Expectation and Variance

Formula Expression
Mean (Expectation) E(X) = Σ x · P(X = x)
E(X²) E(X²) = Σ x² · P(X = x)
Variance Var(X) = E(X²) – [E(X)]²
Standard Deviation σ = √Var(X)
Linear transform E(aX + b) = aE(X) + b Var(aX + b) = a²Var(X)

EXAMPLE 11 – Expected value and variance

x: 1 2 3 4
P(X=x): 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2

E(X) = 1(0.1) + 2(0.3) + 3(0.4) + 4(0.2) = 0.1+0.6+1.2+0.8 = 2.7

E(X²) = 1(0.1) + 4(0.3) + 9(0.4) + 16(0.2) = 0.1+1.2+3.6+3.2 = 8.1
Var(X)= 8.1 – (2.7)² = 8.1 – 7.29 = 0.81
σ = √0.81 = 0.9

4.3 Binomial Distribution X ~ B(n, p)

Use when: fixed n trials, each success probability p, independent, only 2 outcomes.

P(X = r) = C(n,r) · pʳ · (1–p)ⁿ⁻ʳ E(X) = np Var(X) = np(1–p)

EXAMPLE 12 – Binomial
A biased coin: P(Head) = 0.6. Tossed 8 times. X = number of heads.

P(X = 5) = C(8,5) × 0.6⁵ × 0.4³ = 56 × 0.07776 × 0.064 ≈ 0.2787

E(X) = 8 × 0.6 = 4.8
Var(X)= 8 × 0.6 × 0.4 = 1.92 σ ≈ 1.386

4.4 Geometric Distribution X ~ Geo(p)

Number of trials up to AND INCLUDING the first success.
P(X = r) = (1–p)ʳ⁻¹ · p E(X) = 1/p Var(X) = (1–p)/p²

EXAMPLE 13 – Geometric
P(success) = 0.25. X = trial on which first success occurs.
P(X = 4) = (0.75)³ × 0.25 = 0.421875 × 0.25 ≈ 0.1055
E(X) = 1/0.25 = 4 (expect 4 trials on average)
5. Continuous Probability Distributions
5.1 Probability Density Function (PDF)
For a continuous random variable X with PDF f(x):

Property Formula / Condition

Non-negative f(x) ≥ 0 for all x
Total area = 1 ∫ f(x) dx = 1 over the full range
P(a < X < b) ∫ from a to b of f(x) dx (area under curve)
P(X = c) = 0 for any single value c (continuous variable)

EXAMPLE 14 – Find the constant k

f(x) = kx² for 0 ≤ x ≤ 3, f(x) = 0 otherwise.

∫₀³ kx² dx = 1 → k [x³/3]₀³ = 1 → k × 9 = 1 → k = 1/9

P(1 < X < 2) = ∫₁² (x²/9) dx = (1/9)[x³/3]₁² = (1/9)(8/3 – 1/3) = (1/9)(7/3) = 7/27

5.2 Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

F(x) = P(X ≤ x) = ∫ from –∞ to x of f(t) dt P(a < X < b) = F(b) – F(a)

5.3 Mean and Variance of Continuous X

Quantity Formula
E(X) ∫ x · f(x) dx over full range
E(X²) ∫ x² · f(x) dx over full range
Var(X) E(X²) – [E(X)]²

5.4 Normal Distribution X ~ N(μ, σ²)

Key properties: symmetric about mean μ; bell-shaped; P(X < μ) = 0.5.

Standardise: Z = (X – μ) / σ where Z ~ N(0, 1)

Using Z-tables: Φ(z) = P(Z < z). For negative z use Φ(–z) = 1 – Φ(z).

Probability needed How to find it using Φ

P(X < a) Φ((a – μ)/σ)
P(X > a) 1 – Φ((a – μ)/σ)
P(a < X < b) Φ((b–μ)/σ) – Φ((a–μ)/σ)
EXAMPLE 15 – Normal distribution
X ~ N(50, 16). i.e. μ = 50, σ = 4.

P(X < 56):

Z = (56 – 50)/4 = 1.5 → Φ(1.5) = 0.9332

P(X > 47):

Z = (47 – 50)/4 = –0.75 → 1 – Φ(–0.75) = Φ(0.75) = 0.7734

P(45 < X < 58):

Z₁ = (45–50)/4 = –1.25 → Φ(–1.25) = 1 – 0.8944 = 0.1056
Z₂ = (58–50)/4 = 2.00 → Φ(2.00) = 0.9772
P = 0.9772 – 0.1056 = 0.8716
6. Quick-Reference Formula Summary
Topic Key Formula / Rule
Complement P(A') = 1 – P(A)
Addition (M.E.) P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)
Addition (General) P(A∪B) = P(A)+P(B)–P(A∩B)
Independence P(A∩B) = P(A)·P(B)
Conditional P(A|B) = P(A∩B)/P(B)
Mult. Rule (General) P(A∩B) = P(B)·P(A|B)
Binomial P(X=r) = C(n,r)pʳ(1–p)ⁿ⁻ʳ; E=np; Var=np(1–p)
Geometric P(X=r) = (1–p)ʳ⁻¹·p; E=1/p; Var=(1–p)/p²
E(X) discrete Σ x·P(X=x)
Var(X) E(X²) – [E(X)]²
E(X) continuous ∫ x·f(x) dx
Normal standardise Z = (X – μ)/σ where Z ~ N(0,1)

7. Practice Exercises
Section A – Basic & Combined Events
1. A bag contains 4 red, 6 blue and 2 green balls. One is drawn at random. Find P(red), P(not green),
P(red or blue).
2. P(A) = 0.45, P(B) = 0.30, P(A ∩ B) = 0.15. Find P(A ∪ B) and P(A | B). Are A and B independent?
3. In a class, 40% like maths, 55% like science, and 20% like both. Find P(like at least one). Find P(like
maths only).

Section B – Conditional Probability & Tree Diagrams

4. Box X has 3 red, 2 white balls. Box Y has 1 red, 4 white balls. A box is chosen at random, then a ball
is drawn. Find P(red). Given the ball is red, find P(it came from Box X).
5. Machine produces items independently: P(defective) = 0.04. Three items selected. Find P(exactly 2
defective). Use binomial.

Section C – Distributions
6. X ~ B(10, 0.3). Find P(X = 4), P(X ≤ 2), E(X), Var(X).
7. P(success on each trial) = 0.2. Find P(first success on 5th trial). E(X) and Var(X).
8. X has PDF: f(x) = 3x² for 0 ≤ x ≤ 1. Verify it is valid. Find P(0.5 < X < 0.8). Find E(X).
9. X ~ N(100, 25). Find P(X > 108), P(92 < X < 107). Find the value a such that P(X < a) = 0.90.

Teacher's Notes
• Encourage students to draw tree diagrams or Venn diagrams before calculating.
• Stress that P(A|B) ≠ P(B|A) — a common error.
• For Normal distribution, always show the standardisation step Z = (X–μ)/σ for full marks.
• Remind pupils: for continuous distributions P(X = c) = 0, so P(X < c) = P(X ≤ c).
• Check binomial conditions explicitly: fixed n, constant p, independence, two outcomes.