UNIVERSITY OF THE PUNJAB

DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

COURSE TITLE: FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS

ARTICLE TITLE: PAKISTAN’S AFGHAN POLICY AFTER THE TALIBAN

TAKEOVER: SECURITY VS ECONOMIC INTERESTS

SUBMITTED BY: MUHAMMAD ADEEL, ROLL NO.13

SUBMITTED TO: PROF. DR. RANA EIJAZ AHMAD

1
Abstract
The Taliban took over in Kabul in August 2021. This was a change for Pakistan and
Afghanistan. Before Pakistan thought everything would be okay with Afghanistan. Now
Pakistan is being very careful when it deals with Afghanistan. Pakistan is thinking twice
about what it does, with the Taliban and Afghanistan.

Pakistan was happy when the United States left and the Ashraf Ghani government fell.
They thought this was good for Pakistan and their idea of having Afghanistan as a place for
them to influence. Pakistan thought that Afghanistan would be a good neighbor. Over time
Pakistan realized this was not true. Pakistan's view of Afghanistan has changed now.

The Taliban's return made Pakistan switch from thinking everything would be okay with
Afghanistan to thinking they need to be careful, with Afghanistan and the Taliban. Pakistan
is trying to make its economy better. The government of Pakistan has a plan to make the
economy of Pakistan stronger which is written in the National Security Policy of Pakistan
from 2022 to 2026. The economy of Pakistan is very important to Pakistan. The reality is
that Pakistan is facing many problems with security. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is
getting stronger again in its places in Afghanistan. This is a problem for Pakistan because
the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is a threat to the security of Pakistan. The situation at the
border between Pakistan and Afghanistan which is called the Durand Line is getting worse.

Pakistan is very concerned about the security issues it is facing and the problems with the
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and the situation, at the Durand Line. The projects that were
supposed to connect the region, like CASA-1000 and TAPI are not going forward as they
should. Pakistan's goals for its economy are being hurt by these security issues. The Tehrik-
i-Taliban Pakistan is getting stronger again. A study says that security concerns are more
important to Pakistan than interests right now which is why Pakistan is taking a tough
stance. So, Pakistan is doing things like carrying out airstrikes across the border stopping
trade and sending back a lot of refugees. This is all because of the security problems that
Pakistan is facing. It is affecting Pakistan's economy and Pakistan's relationships with other
countries. Pakistan is trying to deal with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and other security
issues. It is not easy, for Pakistan. Pakistan is being forced to do these things because of
security concerns. The security concerns are making Pakistan do things that're not good for
the economy of Pakistan. Pakistan is taking this stance because Pakistan feels it must do
and this is affecting the economy of Pakistan and the relationships of Pakistan, with other
countries.

[Link]
2
 The fall of Kabul on August 15, 2021, was a deal for South Asian geopolitics. For Pakistan
the fall of Kabul was like a weight had been lifted off their shoulders. Pakistan was worried
about having enemies on two sides, which was a pretty scary situation. The government in
Kabul was friends with India. That was a problem for Pakistan because India is right next to
them. When Kabul fell, people in Islamabad felt a lot better about the situation. The Prime
Minister of Pakistan, at that time Imran Khan said something that really caught people's
attention. The people of Afghanistan are now free at last. They do not have to do what other
countries tell them to do. The people of Afghanistan have become independent they are no
longer bossed around by countries that is what Imran Khan said.

The plan is simple: if the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is friendly towards Pakistan, then
Pakistan's western border will be safe. This will also mean that India will not be able to
interfere in Afghanistan. This will be very good for Pakistan because it will allow Pakistan to
focus on making money and trading with countries instead of just worrying about fighting
wars which is what Pakistan wants to do it wants to move away, from fighting and focus on
its economy it wants to make this change from fighting to trading according to Pakistan's
own plans.

As we go into 2024 and then 2025 people are not feeling so good about things anymore. The
truth is that the Taliban taking over has made things worse for Pakistan when it comes to
keeping people safe inside the country. The Taliban in Afghanistan and the TTP, in Pakistan
have the ideas and this has made the TTP feel brave enough to fight against Pakistan. At the
time the idea that a stable Afghanistan would help Pakistan's economy by letting them
trade with Central Asia and have energy corridors has not happened. The Taliban takeover
has not secured the part of Pakistan as people had hoped.

This article is about the problem with Pakistan's policy on Afghanistan. The main issue is
that Pakistan wants to be a place where countries do business and trade. Pakistan's policy
on Afghanistan is a problem right now. Because of terrorism coming from Afghanistan
Pakistan has to focus on keeping its people safe. Pakistan has to make sure its people are
safe. This has made things very unstable between Pakistan and Afghanistan which's the
worst it has been in a long time. Pakistan's Afghan policy is really about finding a balance
between being safe and doing business with countries. Pakistan wants to do business and
trade with countries but it also has to keep its people safe from terrorism coming from
Afghanistan. Doing two things at once is really tough. Pakistan's Afghan policy is causing a

3
lot of tension. I think Pakistan's Afghan policy is the reason, for this tension. Pakistan's
Afghan policy is something that needs to be looked at because it is affecting a lot of people.

2. Theoretical Framework: Neoclassical Realism

To understand Pakistan's policy paralysis we need to look at Pakistan's situation in a way.

We can use an idea called Neoclassical Realism to do this. This idea tells us that what
happens with countries affect Pakistan's foreign policy decisions. It also matters what is
happening inside Pakistan like how safe Pakistan is and how well Pakistan's economy is
doing. Pakistan's foreign policy is shaped by the world around Pakistan. We have to
consider what is going on outside and, inside Pakistan to really get Pakistan's policy
paralysis. Pakistan has a lot of its problems. These problems include things like keeping
people safe inside the country and having money to do what it needs to do. These things
play a role, in the decisions that Pakistan makes about what to do. Pakistan's internal
security and economic capacity are very important when Pakistan is making decisions.

• Systemic Level: Pakistan is facing a lot of pressure from countries like the United States
and China. They want to make sure Afghanistan does not become a hiding place for
terrorists. Now Pakistan needs to have talks with the Taliban. This is so the government in
Afghanistan does not collapse. If the government in Afghanistan collapses it will be very
bad. Millions of people will have to leave their homes and go to Pakistan. This will be a
problem for Pakistan and the Taliban and Afghanistan. Pakistan will have to deal with a lot
of people coming into the country. The Taliban will also have to figure out what to do.
Afghanistan will be, in a tough spot. They have to handle the Taliban. At the time Pakistan
has to make sure Afghanistan is safe. This is really hard, for Pakistan. Pakistan has a lot of
work to do to keep Afghanistan safe and deal with the Taliban.

• Domestic Level: The return of the TTP is a danger to our country from within. Our
government is not able to protect our economy from the problems at the border. This
creates a cycle where the government fails to keep us safe which leads to the border being
closed and this in turn causes problems. The economic problems then make it harder for
the government to secure the border and deal with the TTP. The TTP is a threat to our
country. We need to do something about it.

4
3. The Security Dilemma: The TTP Resurgence

The big problem that Pakistan has been facing since 2021 is the issue of Sanctuaries.
Pakistan thought that the Afghan Taliban would be more interested in working with Pakistan
than in helping their friends in the TTP. That is not what happened. The problem of
Sanctuaries is still something that Pakistan has to deal with. Pakistan was wrong when they
thought that the Afghan Taliban would not care about the TTP. The Sanctuaries issue is still
a problem because the Afghan Taliban and the TTP are still friends. Pakistan is still having
trouble, with the Sanctuaries issue and the Afghan Taliban and the TTP are still a part of the
problem.

3.1. The Myth of Leverage

The Afghan Taliban do not consider the TTP as terrorists. They look at the TTP as people
they used to fight with.

The Afghan Taliban and the TTP fought together against the US and NATO.

Now the Afghan Taliban will let the TTP hide in some places like Kunar, Nangarhar and
Paktika.

The Afghan Taliban is saying to Pakistan that they should talk to the TTP and try to make a
deal, with the TTP. Pakistan tried to do this in 2022 with the TTP. It did not work with TTP. The
Taliban took a lot of time to get stronger. The Taliban used this time to get a lot stronger. The
Taliban is now very strong because they had a lot of time to prepare and get stronger.

3.2. Escalation and Kinetics (2024-2025)

By 2024, the security situation was really bad. The Pak Institute for Peace Studies, also
known as PIPS, has some data and this data shows that there was a jump in the number of
violent acts.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the number of incidents was very high in 2024. It was 69 percent
more than before.

5
 The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan or the TTP is doing a lot of things now. The TTP is not just
running away like they used to do

TTP is taking over land. TTP is attacking military places that are very secure, which is a big
concern.

TTP is becoming more powerful. The security situation is becoming worse because of the
TTP.

This situation made Pakistan give up its plan of waiting and watching. Pakistan had to stop
waiting and do something about it. The thing that happened next was an escalation. This
escalation made Pakistan stop being patient. Now Pakistan cannot just sit back. See what
happens. Pakistan has to do something because of this escalation. Pakistan needs to take
action because of the escalation, in the situation. Pakistan has to act because the
escalation is not going away.

• March 2024 Airstrikes: So, something big happened in North Waziristan. Seven
soldiers were killed in an attack. Because of this Pakistan decided to launch
airstrikes in two places, in Afghanistan which're Paktika and Khost provinces.

• December 2024 Clashes: There were fights with heavy artillery in December 2024.
The Taliban Terrorist Group, also known as the TTP attacked the border outposts.
This led to the Torkham and Chaman crossings being closed. The TTP attacks
caused a lot of trouble, and the fighting was very bad. The December 2024 Clashes
were very serious. People were really scared. The TTP was responsible for the
December 2024 Clashes and the attacks on the border outposts.

• October 2025 – Major Border Clashes

There was a fight between Pakistan and Afghanistan in October 2025. The fighting
happened at places along the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Pakistani and
Afghan forces shot guns and small guns at each other. They also used weapons. Many
people from Pakistan and Afghanistan got died in this fight. The Pakistan and Afghan forces

6
kept shooting at each other. This caused a lot of damage and many casualties, on both the
Pakistan and Afghan sides.

The military in Pakistan said that 23 Pakistani soldiers martyred and 200 Afghan Taliban
fighters and other militants who work with them were killed. These clashes were really bad.
People said they were the worst fights at the border since 2021. They caused problems with
trade and made the military, on both sides go on high alert.

During the October 2025 escalation Pakistan did "precision strikes" in some areas of
Kandahar and Kabul provinces. The Pakistan government said they were going after
positions and groups that they thought were responsible for some problems at the border.
After this happened they agreed to stop fighting for 48 hours, which's like a little break. This
was what they decided to do after the Pakistan government did these precision strikes, in
Kandahar and Kabul provinces.

Pakistani forces said they took control of Afghan border posts, between 19 and 30 posts,
when they fought back after the Afghan forces attacked the Pakistani positions in October
2025. Pakistan destroyed the Taliban positions, and they put up their flag at the places they
took over the Taliban outposts that Pakistan captured.

4. The Economic Imperative: A Stalled Geo-Economic Pivot

Pakistan's National Security Policy from 2022 to 2026 says that Pakistan considers
economy and security as a very important part of Pakistan’s survival. The Pakistan National
Security Policy believes that Afghanistan is really important, for this plan. This is because
Afghanistan is a way for Pakistan to connect to the Central Asian Republics. The Central
Asian Republics have a lot of energy resources that Pakistan needs. Afghanistan is very
important for Pakistan to get to these energy resources. The Pakistan National Security
Policy thinks about Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics a lot when it comes to this
plan. The security situation in Pakistan is really bad. This is a problem, for Pakistan. It is
stopping Pakistan from doing business with the Central Asian Republics.

The Pakistan National Security Policy and the economic security of Pakistan are impacted
by what's happening in Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics. This means that the

7
security situation in these places has an effect on Pakistan National Security Policy and the
economic security of Pakistan.

4.1. Trade Volatility

Pakistan was really looking forward to an increase in trade with other countries they wanted
it to reach $5 billion. Things have not gone as planned. In the few months of the fiscal year
2025-26 the amount of trade between Pakistan and other countries actually decreased by 6
percent to $475 million. The main reasons for this uncertainty, in trade are:

• Border Closures: There are a lot of fights at the border. This means that important
crossings like Torkham and Chaman and Ghulam Khan are closed suddenly. As a result,
thousands of cargo trucks are stuck at Border Closures like Torkham and Chaman and
Ghulam Khan. This is a problem because it is not reliable. So, Afghan traders are now
looking at Iran's Chabahar Port as another option, for Border Closures.

• Customs and Smuggling: Pakistan has made the rules for trading with countries very
strict. The reason for this is to stop people from smuggling goods into Pakistan. You see
Pakistan allows goods to be sent to Afghanistan without paying taxes. Then something bad
happens. These goods are smuggled back into Pakistan. Pakistan needs to collect tax
money from these goods, so it has to do something. This has made the people in charge of
Afghanistan very angry with Pakistan. Pakistan is trying to get tax money. This is causing
problems, with Afghanistan. Now Afghanistan is charging Pakistan a lot of money to sell
goods to them. This is not good for Pakistan. Pakistan already has problems with Customs
and Smuggling issues. Afghanistan is making Pakistan pay a lot to trade with them. This is a
problem, for Pakistan and its Customs and Smuggling issues.

4.2. The Stalled Corridors (CASA-1000 and TAPI)

Pakistan's economy really needs energy security. There are two projects that are counting
on things being stable, in Afghanistan:

1. CASA-1000: This project is really big. It is going to cost a lot of money 1.2 billion dollars.
The main goal of the CASA-1000 project is to take electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

8
and bring it to Pakistan. The CASA-1000 project is almost done in Tajikistan and Pakistan
they are just finishing up some work in Nowshera. But the part of the CASA-1000 project
that goes through Afghanistan is not done yet it is like a piece. The Taliban said they would
help with the CASA-1000 project. Some big organizations that give money like the World
Bank are not helping right now. They are not helping with the CASA-1000 project because
they do not recognize the government in Afghanistan and they are worried about the people
in Afghanistan being treated unfairly. The CASA-1000 project is very important. It needs to
be finished but it is hard to do that without any help, from these big organizations.

2. TAPI Pipeline: The TAPI Pipeline is an idea for now. This TAPI Pipeline project is really
important because the TAPI Pipeline will bring gas from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan to
Pakistan to India. The reason the TAPI Pipeline is not moving forward is that it is not safe for
workers from countries to work in Afghanistan. Workers from countries need to feel safe
when they are working in Afghanistan and that is not happening right now. So, the TAPI
Pipeline project cannot happen at this time because of safety issues. So, this means
Pakistan will not get the energy it needs from the TAPI Pipeline. Pakistan really needs the
TAPI Pipeline for energy. The TAPI Pipeline is very important, for Pakistan.

5. Coercive Diplomacy: The Refugee Card

In the part of 2023 and going on into 2024 Pakistan came up with a new way to get what
they want: sending back a lot of people who were not supposed to be there. This new rule
mainly affects refugees. The Pakistan government is doing this for two reasons related to
Afghan refugees.

1. Domestic Security: We need to reduce the number of people who might help Domestic
Security threats hide in our country. These are people who could be a threat to our safety.
The Domestic Security threat is real. It comes from people who are against us. We call
these people the population of Domestic Security. They are a danger, to Domestic Security.
We need to be careful.

2. Pressure: We have to make it clear to the Taliban that they need to assist Pakistan with
its issues like dealing with the TTP. If they do not do this then Pakistan cannot continue to

9
help Afghanistan with its problems. For example, Pakistan is hosting a lot of refugees from
Afghanistan. Pakistan has to think about its needs. The Taliban needs to understand that
Pakistan will not keep helping Afghanistan if the Taliban does not help Pakistan with its
problems like the issue with the TTP. Pakistan is looking out for itself, and the Taliban
should do the same for Pakistan especially when it comes to the TTP problem. The Taliban
has to take care of Pakistan's issues just like Pakistan is taking care of Afghanistan's issues,
such as the refugees, from Afghanistan.

This policy has made things really bad. The fact that hundreds of thousands of Afghans
have been forced to go home has caused a huge issue for the people on the Afghan side of
the border. The Taliban government cannot handle this issue. It has taken away the feelings
that Pakistan had with the Afghan people. Now the Afghan people are really mad at
Pakistan because they do not like them like they used to. The Afghan people have lost trust
in Pakistan because of this policy. The policy has made the Afghan people very angry, with
Pakistan. Pakistan and the Afghan people used to have relations, but this policy has
changed that. This is a big issue, for Pakistan and the Afghan people.

6. Critical Analysis: The Policy Dilemma

Pakistan is in a spot right now. The country has a problem. This problem is affecting the
safety of Pakistan and the economy of Pakistan. Pakistan is dealing with a situation where it
needs to be safe. It also needs to have a good economy. Pakistan has to find a way to
balance these two things. It is hard for Pakistan to do this. Pakistan needs to feel safe and
secure. At the time Pakistan needs to have a strong economy. This is a difficult challenge,
for Pakistan.

• The economy of Pakistan needs to be strong. It has to be connected to Central Asia. This
is really going to help the economy of Pakistan. When Pakistan is connected to Central
Asia, the economy of Pakistan will be able to do business with Central Asia. The economy
of Pakistan really needs this connection, with Central Asia so that the economy of Pakistan
can get better.

10
• Pakistan really needs to have a controlled border so that Pakistan is safe. This border is
very important, for Pakistan. It will help stop militants from coming into Pakistan. Pakistan
has to make its border safe to secure Pakistan and make sure Pakistan is a place to live.
Pakistan needs to do this to keep Pakistan safe from terrorists.

You cannot have a border for trade and a hard border for security, at the time when the
Taliban is not willing to work with you. The Taliban just does not want to cooperate with you.
Pakistan is trying to put up a fence along the Durand Line. This project is almost done. It is
94 percent completed by 2023. The Taliban fighters have been destroying the fence
because they do not think the Durand Line is a real border. The Taliban fighters keep
destroying the fence because the Taliban does not recognize the Durand Line as a border.
People think of it as a line that was drawn a time ago by people from other countries.

Pakistan is losing its power. The Taliban are now talking to countries like China, Russia and
Iran. This means they do not need Pakistan much as they used to. Pakistan thought it had a
lot of control over what happens in Kabul. That is not true. Pakistan is one of the many
neighboring countries that are getting frustrated with the Taliban. The Taliban are dealing
with lots of countries now, so Pakistan is not that important to them anymore. Pakistan and
other countries, like it is having a time figuring out what to do with the Taliban.

7. In the year 2025 Pakistan's Afghan policy is having a tough time. Pakistan had
plans to build a road that would help Pakistan's economy but now Pakistan is focusing on
stopping terrorism and making the Pakistan and Afghanistan border safer. The relationship
between Pakistan and Afghanistan is not very good, it is like a business deal, Pakistan and
Afghanistan do not trust each other they just do things that benefit Pakistan and
Afghanistan. Pakistan and Afghanistan do not really trust each other.

For Pakistan, the lesson of the post-2021 era is stark: Strategic depth was a fallacy. A
"friendly" government in Kabul that shares an ideology with anti-Pakistan militants is
more dangerous than a "hostile" government that does not. Until the issue of TTP
sanctuaries is resolved—either through Taliban action or Pakistani kinetic intervention—
the economic integration of South and Central Asia will remain a casualty of the conflict.

8. Conclusion: From Strategic Depth to Strategic Containment

11
The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been really tough since August
2021. This is an example of what happens when a country wants something to happen
really badly, but it does not work out that way. When the Taliban took over Kabul Pakistan
thought it would be a thing for them. That is not what happened. Instead, Pakistan does not
know what to do now. The country had plans for its economy, which were written down in
the National Security Policy from 2022 to 2026. Now Pakistan's security concerns are
getting in the way of those plans. Pakistan's security concerns are basically eating away at
the National Security Policy. This is a problem, for Pakistan and Afghanistan relations.

The main thing this study found out is that people do not think the economy is more
important than security anymore. In fact, security is now a priority even though it is very
expensive for the country. People used to think that if the Taliban was in charge of
Afghanistan, they would help Pakistan by keeping India from having much influence in the
area. That idea is not true anymore. Now we have a problem: the Taliban's ideas are
affecting Pakistan in a very bad way, and this is what we call ideological blowback, from the
Taliban. The Taliban's ideological blowback is an issue. The Afghan Taliban will not separate
themselves from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. This has changed border areas. They are no
longer a place where countries can trade with each other. Now they are a place where there
is fighting all the time. The Afghan Taliban and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan are causing a lot
of problems.

The Pakistani government is having a time dealing with this situation. They had a plan to
have influence, inside Afghanistan. Now they have to focus on keeping the border with
Afghanistan safe. They have to make sure the Afghan Taliban and the Tehrik-i-Taliban
Pakistan do not cause any trouble.

Pakistan will not be a transit hub for Central Asia soon. This is because of problems with
trade and security in the area. When we look at how trade stops and starts and how many
big projects like CASA-1000 and TAPI are not moving forward, it is clear that countries
cannot easily trade with each other when they do not feel safe. The Durand Line is a
problem because it is easy for militants to cross but hard for businesses to do so. Long as
this is the case Pakistan's goal of focusing on geo-economics will just be something people
talk about, not something that actually happens. Pakistan's dream of being a transit hub,
for Central Asia and Pakistan's goal of focusing on geo-economics will remain a dream and
a goal. The thing is, when there are a lot of fights at the border and that leads to trade being
blocked it makes people from countries not want to invest their money here. This is
because all these border skirmishes and trade blockades show the world that this region is
just too unstable for people to put their money into it. The border skirmishes are a problem

12
and the trade blockades that follow are a major issue they make the region look like a bad
place, for foreign investment and that is why people are not investing in the region.

The relationship between Pakistan and other countries is getting worse. This is forcing
Pakistan to take actions that might hurt its reputation in the run. Pakistan is sending a lot of
refugees back home and is now doing more military operations across the border. This
shows that Pakistan has tried everything it can to negotiate and now it is, out of options. It
seems like Pakistan does not think the Taliban regime is a friend anymore but a problem
that needs to be dealt with. Pakistan is changing the way it looks at the Taliban regime and
the Taliban regime's now a problem for Pakistan to manage. Pakistan used to have a
reputation among some people in Afghanistan. Now that is mostly gone. The people of
Afghanistan are bitter about being forced to leave Pakistan and the strict visa rules.
Pakistan is no longer seen as a place, by many Afghans. The forced deportations and visa
restrictions have replaced the goodwill that Pakistan once had in Afghanistan.

So, when we really think about it the time after 2021 is when the idea of "Strategic Depth"
actually died. Now in 2025 we can see that having a "government in Kabul that thinks like
the anti-Pakistan militants is actually more dangerous for Pakistan's stability than the
"hostile" governments we had before. The "Strategic Depth" doctrine is not working like it
used to. This is a big problem for Pakistan. The reality is that this "friendly" government in
Kabul is a threat to Pakistan's internal stability because it shares the same ideas, as the
anti-Pakistan militants, which is really surprising. Moving forward, Pakistan’s Afghan policy
will likely be defined by defensive realism: hardening the border, decoupling internal
security from external cooperation, and accepting that the road to Central Asia may remain
closed for the foreseeable future. The security of the state has survived, but the economic
promise of the region has become a casualty of the very victory Pakistan once celebrated.

13