Probability-Module IV

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(i) What is Probability?

Probability is the chance of occurrence of an event.

Number of favourable outcomes
P(E ) =
Total number of outcomes
The value of probability always lies between 0 and 1.
If probability = 0, the event is impossible.
If probability = 1, the event is certain.

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(ii) Probability Axioms

The basic axioms of probability are:

1 Probability of any event is always non-negative.

P(A) ≥ 0

2 Probability of the sample space is 1.

P(S) = 1

3 For mutually exclusive events:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

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(iii) Addition Rule

Use when you want the probability of event A or event B.

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

We subtract P(A ∩ B) to avoid counting the overlap twice.

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(iii) Multiplication Rule

Use when both events A and B must occur, and they are independent.

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B)

Independent means one event does not change the chance of the other.

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(iv) Conditional Probability

Conditional probability means the probability of one event when another

event has already happened.

P(A ∩ B)
P(A | B) =
P(B)

P(A | B): read as “probability of A given B”

P(A ∩ B): both A and B happen
P(B) ̸= 0: B must have already occurred

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(v) Total Probability

If an event can happen through different cases B1 , B2 , . . ., then:

P(A) = P(B1 ) P(A | B1 ) + P(B2 ) P(A | B2 ) + · · ·

Think of each Bi as a different “route” through which A can occur. We

add up the contribution from every route.

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(vi) Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ theorem is used to find the reverse probability.

You know P(A | Bi ) – but what is P(Bi | A)?

P(Bi ) P(A | Bi )
P(Bi | A) =
P(A)

where P(A) in the denominator comes from the Total Probability rule.

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Problem 2 – Tossing a Coin

Q: Find the probability of getting a Tail in a toss of a coin.

Step 1: Write the sample space.

S = {H, T }

Step 2: Count favourable outcomes.

Tail appears once ⇒ favourable outcomes = 1
Step 3: Count total outcomes.
Total outcomes = 2
Step 4: Apply the formula.
1
P(T ) =
2

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Problem 3(a) – Even Number on a Die

Q: Find the probability of throwing an even number with an ordinary die.

Step 1: Write the sample space.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} ⇒ total outcomes = 6

Step 2: List the favourable outcomes.

Even numbers: {2, 4, 6} ⇒ favourable outcomes = 3
Step 3: Apply the formula.
3 1
P(even) = =
6 2

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Problem 3(b) – Odd Number Less Than 3

Q: Find the probability of throwing an odd number less than 3.

Step 1: Write the sample space.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} ⇒ total outcomes = 6

Step 2: List the favourable outcomes.

Odd numbers less than 3: {1} ⇒ favourable outcomes = 1
Step 3: Apply the formula.
1
P(odd < 3) =
6

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Problem 4 – Two Coins Tossed Once

Q: Two coins are tossed. Find (a) P(one head) and (b) P(at least one
head).
Step 1: Write the sample space.

S = {HH, HT , TH, TT } ⇒ total outcomes = 4

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Problem 4(a) – Exactly One Head

Step 2: List favourable outcomes for exactly one head.

{HT , TH} ⇒ favourable outcomes = 2

Step 3: Apply the formula.

2 1
P(one head) = =
4 2

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Problem 4(b) – At Least One Head

Step 2: List favourable outcomes for at least one head.

“At least one” means one or more heads.

{HH, HT , TH} ⇒ favourable outcomes = 3

Step 3: Apply the formula.

3
P(at least one head) =
4

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Problem 5 – Coin Tossed Thrice

Q: A coin is tossed thrice. Find the probability of getting all tails.

Step 1: Find total number of outcomes.

Each toss has 2 results. Three tosses ⇒ 23 = 8 outcomes.

S = {HHH, HHT , HTH, HTT , THH, THT , TTH, TTT }

Step 2: List favourable outcomes.

Only TTT ⇒ favourable outcomes = 1
Step 3: Apply the formula.
1
P(all tails) =
8

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Problem 6 – Drawing from 52 Cards

Q: A single card is drawn from an ordinary pack of 52 cards. Find:

(a) Probability that the card is a King
(b) Probability that the card is a Face card
(c) Probability that the card is a Heart

A standard deck has 52 cards arranged in 4 suits of 13 cards each.

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Problem 6(a) – Probability of a King

There are 4 kings in a pack of 52 cards (one per suit).

Favourable outcomes = 4
Total outcomes = 52

4 1
P(king) = =
52 13

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Problem 6(b) – Probability of a Face Card

Face cards are Jack, Queen and King.

There are 3 face cards per suit and 4 suits:

3 × 4 = 12 face cards

Favourable outcomes = 12
Total outcomes = 52

12 3
P(face card) = =
52 13

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Problem 6(c) – Probability of a Heart

There are 13 hearts in a pack of 52 cards.

Favourable outcomes = 13
Total outcomes = 52

13 1
P(heart) = =
52 4

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Problem 7 – Subcommittee Selection (Setup)

Q: From a group of 3 Indians, 4 Pakistanis and 5 Americans, a

subcommittee of 4 is selected at random.

Total number of people:

3 + 4 + 5 = 12

Total ways to select 4 people from 12 (order does not matter):

n n!
Cr =
(n − r )!r !

12 12!
C4 =
4!8!
12 12 × 11 × 10 × 9 × 8 × 7×6×5×4×3×2×1
C4 =
4×3×2×1×8×7×6×5×4×3×2×1

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Problem 7(a) – 2 Indians and 2 Pakistanis

Step 1: Count favourable ways.

3C2 × 4C2 = 3 × 6 = 18

Step 2: Apply the formula.

18 2
P= =
495 55

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Problem 7(b) – 1 Indian, 1 Pakistani and 2 Americans

Step 1: Count favourable ways.

3C1 × 4C1 × 5C2 = 3 × 4 × 10 = 120

Step 2: Apply the formula.

120 8
P= =
495 33

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Problem 7(c) – 4 Americans

Step 1: Count favourable ways.

5C4 = 5

Step 2: Apply the formula.

5 1
P= =
495 99

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Bayes Problem 1 – Bolt Factory (Setup)

In a bolt factory, machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%,

35% and 40% of the total output.
The percentage of defective bolts produced by each machine is:
Machine A: 5%
Machine B: 4%
Machine C: 2%
A bolt is selected at random and found to be defective
Find the probability that it was manufactured by Machine B.
Given:

P(A) = 0.25, P(D | A) = 0.05

P(B) = 0.35, P(D | B) = 0.04
P(C ) = 0.40, P(D | C ) = 0.02

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Bayes Problem 1 – Step 1: Write Bayes’ Theorem

P(B) P(D | B)
P(B | D) =
P(A) P(D | A) + P(B) P(D | B) + P(C ) P(D | C )

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Bayes Problem 1 – Step 2: Calculate the Denominator

Calculate each product in the denominator:

P(A) P(D | A) = 0.25 × 0.05 = 0.0125

P(B) P(D | B) = 0.35 × 0.04 = 0.0140
P(C ) P(D | C ) = 0.40 × 0.02 = 0.0080

P(D) = 0.0125 + 0.0140 + 0.0080 = 0.0345

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Bayes Problem 1 – Step 3: Final Answer

The numerator is the product for Machine B:

P(B) P(D | B) = 0.35 × 0.04 = 0.014

Therefore:
0.014
P(B | D) = ≈ 0.406
0.0345
There is a 40.6% chance the defective bolt came from Machine B.

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Bayes Problem 2 – Bolt Factory A, B & C (Setup)

In a bolt factory, Machines A, B and C manufacture 20%, 30% and 50%

of the total output respectively.
The percentage of defective bolts produced by each machine is:
Machine A: 6%
Machine B: 3%
Machine C: 2%
A bolt is selected at random and found to be defective.
Find the probability that the defective bolt was manufactured by:
1 Machine A
2 Machine B
3 Machine C

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Given

P(A) = 0.20, P(D | A) = 0.06

P(B) = 0.30, P(D | B) = 0.03
P(C ) = 0.50, P(D | C ) = 0.02

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Bayes Problem 2 – Step 1: Total Probability P(D)

P(D) = P(A) P(D | A) + P(B) P(D | B) + P(C ) P(D | C )

P(A) P(D | A) = 0.20 × 0.06 = 0.012

P(B) P(D | B) = 0.30 × 0.03 = 0.009
P(C ) P(D | C ) = 0.50 × 0.02 = 0.010

P(D) = 0.012 + 0.009 + 0.010 = 0.031

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Bayes Problem 2 – Step 2: Apply Bayes’ Theorem

Now apply Bayes’ theorem for each machine.

Machine A:
P(A) P(D | A) 0.012
P(A | D) = = ≈ 0.387
P(D) 0.031

Machine B:
P(B) P(D | B) 0.009
P(B | D) = = ≈ 0.290
P(D) 0.031

Machine C:
P(C ) P(D | C ) 0.010
P(C | D) = = ≈ 0.323
P(D) 0.031

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Bayes Problem 3 – Hotel Faulty Plumbing

A businessman goes to hotels X, Y and Z 20%, 50% and 30% of the time
respectively.
It is known that 5%, 4% and 8% of the rooms in hotels X, Y and Z
respectively have faulty plumbing.
What is the probability that the businessman’s room having faulty
plumbing is assigned to hotel Z?
Let F = event that the room has faulty plumbing.

P(X ) = 0.20, P(F | X ) = 0.05

P(Y ) = 0.50, P(F | Y ) = 0.04
P(Z ) = 0.30, P(F | Z ) = 0.08

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Bayes Problem 3 – Step 1: Total Probability P(F )

P(F ) = P(X ) P(F | X ) + P(Y ) P(F | Y ) + P(Z ) P(F | Z )

P(X ) P(F | X ) = 0.20 × 0.05 = 0.010

P(Y ) P(F | Y ) = 0.50 × 0.04 = 0.020
P(Z ) P(F | Z ) = 0.30 × 0.08 = 0.024

P(F ) = 0.010 + 0.020 + 0.024 = 0.054

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Bayes Problem 3 – Step 2: Final Answer

Apply Bayes’ theorem for Hotel Z:

P(Z ) P(F | Z ) 0.024

P(Z | F ) = = ≈ 0.444
P(F ) 0.054

There is a 44.4% chance the room with faulty plumbing belongs to Hotel
Z.

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