Cambridge A-Level Mathematics 9709

Paper 5 (Probability & Statistics 1) Solutions

May/June 2025 Series

Paper 51 (9709/51/M/J/25)
1. X ∼ N (µ, 0.142 ). Given P (X < 1.48) = 0.22.
Z = 1.48−µ −1
0.14 = Φ (0.22) = −0.772 =⇒ µ = 1.48 + 0.14(0.772) = 1.588
2. Word: KANGAROO (A:2, O:2, K:1, N:1, G:1, R:1)
(a) As together, Os apart. Group (AA), leaving (AA), K, N, G, R (5 units). Arrange these:
5! = 120. Spaces for Os between/around these units: 6 spaces. Choose 2: 62 = 15. Total

= 120 × 15 = 1800.
781
(b) X ∼ Geo(0.25). P (X < 6) = 1 − (0.75)5 = 0.763 (or 1024 ).
(c) Negative binomial (2nd A on 6th roll) = 1 A in first 5 rolls, then A on 6th.
P = 51 (0.25)1 (0.75)4 × 0.25 = 0.0989 (or 4096
405


).
3. (a) Stem-and-leaf diagram:

Gulls Stem Herons

9 7
86632 8 1357
872 9 23579
40 10 8
Key: 9 | 7 | 0 means 7.9 s for Gulls, no time in 7s for Herons.
(b) Gulls: n = 11. Median (6th) = 8.8. LQ (3rd) = 8.3, UQ (9th) = 9.8 =⇒ IQR = 1.5.
(c) Σx = 175.0 (n = 20), Σy = 30 × 8.4 = 252.0. Total Σt = 175 + 252 = 427.
Mean for Eagles & Swifts (n = 50) = 427/50 = 8.54.
2
(d) Var = Σt 2 2 2
50 − 8.54 = 1.38 =⇒ Σt = 50(1.9044 + 72.9316) = 3741.8.
Σy 2 = 3741.8 − 1823.0 = 1918.8.
4. T ∼ N (32.4, 2.52 ).
(a) P (31.2 < T < 33.6) = Φ(1.2/2.5) − Φ(−1.2/2.5) = 2Φ(0.48) − 1 = 0.3688.
Expected = 600 × 0.3688 ≈ 221.
(b) X ∼ B(9, 0.60). P (2 ≤ X < 8) = P (X ≤ 7) − P (X ≤ 1) = 0.9295 − 0.00999 = 0.920.
(c) Y ∼ B(80, 0.60). µ = 48, σ 2 = 19.2. Normal approx: P (Y > 50) → P (Y > 50.5).
Z = 50.5−48
√
19.2
= 0.5705 =⇒ 1 − Φ(0.571) = 1 − 0.7160 = 0.284.
5. 9 G, 6 P, 5 D.
Select


6.
(a) (3G, 2P, 1D): 93 62 51 = 6300. (4G, 1P, 1D): 94 61 51 = 3780.

(5G, 0P, 1D): 95 60 51 = 630. Total = 6300 + 3780 + 630 = 10710.

(b) France: 93 61 51 , Italy: 63 51 41 , Spain: 33 41 31 .

Total selections = (84 × 6 × 5) × (20 × 5 × 4) × (1 × 4 × 3) = 2520 × 400 × 12 = 12, 096, 000.

6. 4 Red, 6 Blue. Pick 4.
(6)(4)
(a) P (X = 2) = 2 10 2 = 15×6 3
210 = 7 .
(4)
x 0 1 2 3 4
(b)
P (X = x) 1/210 24/210 90/210 80/210 15/210
P (X∈{2,3}) (90+80)/210 170 85
(c) P (X ≥ 2 | X ∈ {1, 2, 3}) = P (X∈{1,2,3}) = (24+90+80)/210 = 194 = 97 .

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Paper 52 (9709/52/M/J/25)
1. P (T1 ) = 2/3, P (T2 ) = 3/4, P (T3 ) = 1/2. X = number of tails.
P (0) = 31 · 14 · 21 = 24
1
.
P (1) = ( 3 4 2 ) + ( 3 4 2 ) + ( 31 14 12 ) = 24
211 131 6
.
131 211 231 11
P (2) = ( 3 4 2 ) + ( 3 4 2 ) + ( 3 4 2 ) = 24 .
P (3) = 23 · 34 · 21 = 24
6
.
x 0 1 2 3
P (X = x) 1/24 1/4 11/24 1/4
2. X ∼ B(160, 0.7). Normal approx: µ = 112, σ 2 = 33.6.
P (X > 120) → P (X > 120.5) =⇒ Z = 120.5−112 √
33.6
= 1.466.
1 − Φ(1.466) = 1 − 0.9287 = 0.0713.
3. 4 Blue, 12 Red. Blue replaced, Red not.
4 4
(a) P (same) = P (BB) + P (RR) = ( 16 × 16 ) + ( 12 11 1 11 49
16 × 15 ) = 16 + 20 = 80 .
P (B1 ∩R2 ) 4/16×12/16 3/16
(b) P (B1 | R2 ) = P (R2 ) = (4/16×12/16)+(12/16×11/15) = 3/16+11/20 = 15 59 .
4. (a) P (3 diff) = 3! × 0.3 × 0.25 × 0.45 = 0.2025.
(b) Geometric: P (X ≤ 8) = 1 − (0.7)8 = 0.942.

(c) Negative Binomial (1 L in 6, then L on 7th): 61 (0.3)1 (0.7)5 × 0.3 = 0.0908.
5. (a) Points to plot: (10, 34), (20, 86), (30, 142), (40, 208), (60, 265), (90, 300).
(b) 120 take > k =⇒ 180 take ≤ k. From (30, 142) to (40, 208), linear interp: k = 30 + 10 ×
180−142
208−142 ≈ 35.8 min.
(c) Midpoints: 5, 15, 25, 35, 50, 75. Freq: 34, 52, 56, 66, q 57, 35.
Σf t = 10135, Σf t2 = 467775 =⇒ Mean = 33.8, SD = 467775 2
300 − 33.78 = 20.4.
6. AMALGAMATE (A:4, M:2, L,G,T,E)
M. Arrange L,G,T,E (4! = 24). Place 4 As in 5 gaps ( 54 = 5). Total


(a) M
= 24 × 5 = 120.
8!
(b) Slide M M to 6 positions. Distribute remaining 8 items in 8 spots: 4! . Total = 6 × 8!
4! =
10080.
(c) Cases (M, A, Other): (1,2,2) → 42 = 6; (1,3,1) → 41 = 4; (1,4,0) → 40 = 1;

(2,2,1) → 41 = 4; (2,3,0) → 40 = 1. Sum = 6 + 4 + 1 + 4 + 1 = 16.

7. W ∼ N (74.8, 3.22 ).
(a) P (72.4 < W < 76.3) = Φ(1.5/3.2)−Φ(−2.4/3.2) = 0.6805−(1−0.7734) = 0.4539. Expected
= 120 × 0.4539 ≈ 54.
(b) 0.202−µ
σ = 0.842 and 0.185−µ
σ = −0.583.
0.017 = 1.425σ =⇒ σ = 0.0119, µ = 0.192.
(c) X ∼ B(10, 0.20). P (X ≤ 2) = 0.810 + 10(0.2)(0.8)9 + 45(0.2)2 (0.8)8 = 0.678.

2
Paper 53 (9709/53/M/J/25)
1. (a) x̄ − k = 836.0
40 = 20.9 =⇒ k = 124.0 − 20.9 = 103.1.
25410.8
√
(b) Var = 40 − 20.92 = 635.27 − 436.81 = 198.46 =⇒ SD = 198.46 = 14.1.
2. (a) P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (None study D) = 1 − (0.55)3 = 0.834.
(b) P (A or M) = 0.20 + 0.35 = 0.55. Y ∼ B(10, 0.55).
P (Y > 7) = P (8) + P (9) + P (10) = 45(0.55)8 (0.45)2 + 10(0.55)9 (0.45) + (0.55)10 = 0.0996.
3. X ∼ Geo(1/6).
(a) P (X = 8) = (5/6)7 (1/6) = 0.0465.
(b) P (X < 9) = 1 − (5/6)8 = 0.767.
(c) At least two 3s in first 5 throws: 1 − (5/6)5 + 5(1/6)(5/6)4 = 1 − 0.4019 − 0.4019 = 0.196.

4. (a) Reading cf graph: cf at 7.5 ≈ 68, cf at 4 ≈ 26 =⇒ 68 − 26 = 42.

(b) Box-and-whisker: Min = 2, LQ (cf 21) ≈ 3.7, Median (cf 42) ≈ 5.1, UQ (cf 63) ≈ 6.6,
Max = 12.
5. (a) Tree branches: A → RB (6/12), BB (5/12), GB (1/12).
From RA : B → R (6/9), B (3/9). From BA : B → R (5/9), B (4/9). From GA : B → R (5/9),
B (3/9).
(b) P (same) = (6/12)(6/9) + (5/12)(4/9) = 14/27.
(5/12)(4/9)
(c) P (BA | BB ) = (6/12)(3/9)+(5/12)(4/9)+(1/12)(3/9) = 20/108 20
41/108 = 41 .
6. (a) P (X < 2.65) = Φ(0.15/0.12) = Φ(1.25) = 0.894.
(b) P (Z > 1.65) = 1 − 0.9505 = 0.0495. Expected = 160 × 0.0495 ≈ 8.
(c) 1.26−µ
σ = Φ−1 (1 − 0.77) = −0.739 and 1.35−µ σ = Φ−1 (0.44) = −0.151.
0.09 = 0.588σ =⇒ σ = 0.153, µ = 1.37.
7. 7 Men (inc. A,B,C), 4 Women.
(a) Total 7! = 5040. A & B together = 6! × 2! = 1440. Not together = 5040 − 1440 = 3600.
(b) All M together, all W
together:
11 5

2

× 4! × 2! = 241, 920.
7!
(c) Groups of 6, 3, 2: 6 × 3 × 2 = 462 × 10 × 1 = 4620.
(d) A,B,C in group 6: 83 × 53 × 1 = 560. In group 3: 86 = 28. Total = 588. Prob

= 588/4620 = 0.127.

Paper 55 (9709/55/M/J/25)
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
1. (a)
P (X = x) 6/36 10/36 8/36 6/36 4/36 2/36
(b) E(X) = 0+10+16+18+16+10
36
70
= 36 = 1.94.
0+10+32+54+64+50 210
2
E(X ) = 36 = 36 =⇒ Var(X) = 210 70 2
36 − ( 36 ) = 2.05.
2. (a) P (X < 14) = Φ(−6/5) = 1 − 0.8849 = 0.1151. Expected = 150 × 0.1151 ≈ 17.
(b) P (X ≥ h) = 0.25 =⇒ h−20 5 = 0.674 =⇒ h = 20 + 3.37 = 23.4.
3. p = 0.4.
(a) X ∼ B(80, 0.4) =⇒ µ = 32, σ 2 = 19.2. P (X < 27) → P (X < 26.5) =⇒ Z = 26.5−32 √
19.2
=
−1.255.
1 − Φ(1.255) = 1 − 0.8953 = 0.105.
(b) Y ∼ B(10, 0.4). P (Y ≤ 2) = P (0) + P (1) + P (2) = 0.610 + 10(0.4)(0.6)9 + 45(0.4)2 (0.6)8 =
0.167.
4. (a) Tree diagram: Root → A (0.3), R (0.2), T2 (0.5). From T2 → A (0.3), R (0.2), T3
(0.5). From T3 → A (0.25), R (0.75).
(b) P (A) = 0.3 + (0.5 × 0.3) + (0.5 × 0.5 × 0.25) = 0.3 + 0.15 + 0.0625 = 0.5125.
(c) P (≥ 2 tests | A) = 0.15+0.0625
0.5125
0.2125
= 0.5125 = 0.415.
(d) P (R) = 1 − 0.5125 = 0.4875. All 3 rejected = 0.48753 = 0.116.

3
 5. (a) Stem-and-leaf diagram:

Smarts Stem Teasers

9 0
8831 1 258
982 2 155
80 3 26799
1 4

Key: 1 | 4 | 0 means 41 min for Smarts, no time in 40s for Teasers.

(b) Smarts Box Plot points: Min=9, LQ=13, Med=22, UQ=30, Max=41. Teasers points:
Min=12, LQ=18, Med=25, UQ=37, Max=39. (Plots would be drawn on the grid showing these
5-number summaries parallel to each other).
(c) 1. Teasers have a higher median time (25 vs 22), so they are generally slower. 2. Teasers
have a larger IQR (19 vs 17), meaning their central times are more spread out.
6. 7 Men, 5 Women.
(7)(5) 70
(a) 1 12 3 = 495 = 0.141.
(4)
(b) Partition 12 into 3 specific teams: 12 8 4




4 × 4 × 4 = 34, 650.
(c) Inclusion-Exclusion:
Teams must
not be all-M or all-W.
5 8
Ways 1 team is all-W: 4 × 3 × 4 = 1050.
Ways 1 team is all-M: 74 × 3 × 84 = 7350.

Overlap (1 all-W and 1 all-M): 54 × 74 × 6 = 1050.

Valid ways = 34650 − (1050 + 7350 − 1050)
= 27, 300.

(d) G H (or reverse). Choose 2 men: 52 = 10. Arrange them: 2!. Arrange G&H: 2!. Block
+ 3 men = 4 units. Arrange units: 4!. Total = 10 × 2 × 2 × 24 = 960.