William M.
Trochim
James P. Donnelly
Kanika Arora
2e
12
Inferential Analysis
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12.1 Foundations of Analysis for Research
Design
• The analysis procedure you choose is
based on your research design
• All of the procedures in this chapter are
based on the General Linear Model (GLM)
– A system of equations that is used as the
mathematical framework for most of the
statistical analyses used in applied social
research
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12.2 Inferential Statistics
• Statistical analyses used to reach
conclusions that extend beyond the
immediate data alone
• The GLM uses dummy variables
– A variable that uses discrete numbers, usually
0 and 1, to represent different groups in your
study
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12.2 Inferential Statistics – Statistical
Significance
• Uses the GLM to estimate statistical
significance
– p value: an estimate of the probability of your
result if the null hypothesis is true
– Statistical significance is not enough; we need
an effect size, as well
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12.2 Statistical and Practical Significance
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12.3 General Linear Model
• Foundation for
– t-test
– ANOVA and ANCOVA
– Regression, factor, and cluster analyses
– Multidimensional scaling
– Discriminant function analysis
– Canonical correlation
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12.3 General Linear Model
• Assumptions
– The relationships between variables are linear
– Samples are random and independently
drawn from the population
– Variables have equal (homogeneous)
variances
– Variables have normally distributed error
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12.3a The Two-Variable Linear Model
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12.3a The Straight Line Model
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12.3a Estimates Using the Two-Variable
Linear Model
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12.3b The “General” in the General Linear
Model
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12.3b The “General” in the General Linear
Model (cont’d.)
• The GLM allows you to summarize a wide
variety of research outcomes
• The major problem for the researcher who
uses the GLM is model specification
– How to identify the equation that best
summarizes the data for a study
– If the model is misspecified, the estimates of
the coefficients (the b-values) that you get
from the analysis are likely to be biased
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12.3c Dummy Variables
• Enable you to use a single regression
equation to represent multiple groups
– Act like switches that turn various values on
and off in an equation
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12.3c Using Dummy Variables
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12.3d The t-Test
• Assesses whether the means of two
groups (for example, the treatment and
control groups) are statistically different
from each other
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12.3d Three Scenarios
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12.3d Low-, Medium-, and High-Variability
Scenarios
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12.3d Difference Between the Means
• When you are looking at the differences
between scores for two groups, you have
to judge the difference between their
means relative to the spread or variability
of their scores
• The t-test does just this—it determines if a
difference exists between the means of
two groups
© 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved.
12.3d Formula for the t-Test
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12.3d The t-Test
• t-Value
• Standard error of the
difference
• Variance
• Standard deviation (sd) The regression formula
for the t-test & ANOVA
• Alpha level (α)
• Degrees of freedom (df)
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12.4a The Two-Group Posttest-Only
Randomized Experiment
• Meets the following requirements:
– Has two groups
– Uses a post-only measure
– Has a distribution for each group on the
response measure, each with an average and
variation
– Assesses treatment effect as the statistical
(non-chance) difference between the groups
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12.4a The Two-Group Posttest-Only
Randomized Experiment (cont’d.)
• Three tests meet these requirements, and
they all yield the same results
– Independent t-Test
– One-way ANOVA
– Regression analysis
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12.4b Factorial Design Analysis
• Analysis requires results for two main
effects and one interaction effect in a 2 x
2 factorial design
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12.4c Randomized Block Analysis
• The dummy variable
Z1 represents the
treatment group
• The other dummy
variables indicate the
blocks
• The beta values (Β)
reflect the analogous
treatment and blocks
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12.4d Analysis of Covariance
• An analysis that estimates the difference
between the groups on the posttest after
adjusting for differences on the pretest
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12.5 Quasi-Experimental Analysis
• Quasi-experimental designs still use the
GLM, but it has to be adjusted for
measurement error
– Any influence on an observed score not
related to what you are attempting to measure
• This adjustment for error makes the
analyses more complicated
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12.5a Nonequivalent Groups Analysis
Formula for adjusting pretest values The regression model for the
for unreliability in the reliability- reliability corrected ANCOVA
corrected ANCOVA
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12.5b Regression-Discontinuity Analysis
Adjusting the pretest by subtracting The regression model for the basic
the cutoff in the Regression- regression-discontinuity design
Discontinuity (RD) analysis model.
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12.5c Regression Point Displacement
Analysis
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Summary
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Discuss and Debate
• What is the difference between statistical
significance and practical significance?
– Give an example to support your answer
• Discuss how the four assumptions
underlying the GLM impact the data
analysis process
© 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved.