Artificial Intelligence For Diagnostic and Prognostic Neuroimaging in Dementia: A Systematic Review
Artificial Intelligence For Diagnostic and Prognostic Neuroimaging in Dementia: A Systematic Review
DOI: 10.1002/alz.13412
REVIEW ARTICLE
Correspondence
Robin J. Borchert, Department of Clinical Abstract
Neurosciences, University of Cambridge,
Herchel Smith Building, Forvie Site, Robinson
Introduction: Artificial intelligence (AI) and neuroimaging offer new opportunities for
Way, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, diagnosis and prognosis of dementia.
Cambridge, CB2 0SZ, UK.
Email: rb729@[Link]
Methods: We systematically reviewed studies reporting AI for neuroimaging in
diagnosis and/or prognosis of cognitive neurodegenerative diseases.
Funding information
Results: A total of 255 studies were identified. Most studies relied on the Alzheimer’s
Alzheimer’s Research UK; National Institute
for Health and Care Research (NIHR); National Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset. Algorithmic classifiers were the most com-
Institute for Health Research (NIHR);
monly used AI method (48%) and discriminative models performed best for differ-
Alzheimer’s Research UK and the Alan Turing
Institute/Engineering and Physical Sciences entiating Alzheimer’s disease from controls. The accuracy of algorithms varied with
Research Council, Grant/Award Number:
the patient cohort, imaging modalities, and stratifiers used. Few studies performed
EP/N510129/1; Medical Research Council,
Grant/Award Number: MR/X005674/1; validation in an independent cohort.
National Health and Medical Research Council
Discussion: The literature has several methodological limitations including lack
(NHMRC); National Institute on
Aging/National Institutes of Health, of sufficient algorithm development descriptions and standard definitions. We
Grant/Award Number: RF1AG055654
make recommendations to improve model validation including addressing key
clinical questions, providing sufficient description of AI methods and validat-
ing findings in independent datasets. Collaborative approaches between experts
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided
the original work is properly cited.
© 2023 The Authors. Alzheimer’s & Dementia published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Alzheimer’s Association.
KEYWORDS
artificial intelligence (AI), Alzheimer’s disease, dementia, machine learning (ML), neurodegenera-
tive diseases, neuroimaging
Highlights
∙ There has been a rapid expansion in the use of machine learning for diagnosis and
prognosis in neurodegenerative disease
∙ Most studies (71%) relied on the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative
(ADNI) dataset with no other individual dataset used more than five times
∙ There has been a recent rise in the use of more complex discriminative models (e.g.,
neural networks) that performed better than other classifiers for classification of AD
vs healthy controls
∙ We make recommendations to address methodological considerations, addressing
key clinical questions, and validation
∙ We also make recommendations for the field more broadly to standardize
outcome measures, address gaps in the literature, and monitor sources of
bias
1 INTRODUCTION ment using features such as medial temporal lobe atrophy18 and white
matter hyperintensity load.19,20 However, the development of more
There is a pressing need to improve diagnosis and prognosis for people sophisticated approaches and richer data may mean that the most
with dementia. Up to 20% of people may receive the wrong diagnosis,1 informative features are not amenable to human measurement or
and differentiating between early symptoms in dementia based on observation. For example, resting-state functional MRI can be used to
clinical information and neuropsychological testing alone is subjective derive a variety of connectivity metrics between 1000s of nodes that
and prone to error. There is large geographic variability in the likeli- are amenable to machine learning (ML) approaches.21 Deep learning
hood of receiving a diagnosis, even within a single country.2 Diagnostic methods have also demonstrated superiority to human neuroimaging
investigations such as neuroimaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tests interpretation.22,23
can support clinical diagnosis; however it can take years to receive a ML algorithms facilitate the automation of neuroimaging interpre-
diagnosis from the initial onset of symptoms.3 Receiving a timely and tation and have the potential to reduce bias and improve clinical
accurate diagnosis is critical for people with dementia, their carers, and decision making.24–26 Neuroimaging data are particularly well-suited
families:4,5 it provides the opportunity for forward planning; and with to analysis using ML, particularly deep learning, given its high dimen-
the advent of disease modifying treatments an early accurate diagno- sionality, non-linear nature and high covariance within the data. A
sis will guide treatment selection, working toward a precision medicine large and growing number of ML studies have investigated how neu-
approach.6 roimaging features can be used to predict cognitive diagnoses and
Neuroimaging is a non-invasive investigation used in routine clinical conversion to dementia, fueled by the availability of large datasets,
practice to support the diagnosis of dementia.7,8 A range of neu- such as the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI).27
roimaging methods are used in dementia and magnetic resonance However, uncertainty remains about which ML approaches have the
imaging (MRI) is one of the most widely used to examine brain greatest potential to inform clinical decision making and how their
structure,9,10 longitudinal patterns of atrophy,11 and changes in brain performance compares to human decision making.
function.12–14 Positron emission tomography (PET) is available in spe- We therefore conducted a systematic review to establish: (1) the
cialist centers and is more expensive; it is used to measure metabolic extent to which ML approaches for neuroimaging have been used for
activity, or using protein-specific ligands to identify underlying the diagnosis and/or prognosis of neurodegenerative diseases; (2) how
pathologies.15–17 this field has progressed over time; (3) methodological challenges; and
Human clinical judgment has traditionally been used to interpret (4) the future directions to facilitate the translation of ML methods for
clinical neuroimaging.9 Visual rating scales may support this assess- patient benefit in dementia.
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BORCHERT ET AL . 5887
4. Articles which did not include primary research, for example, 3. ML methods, extracted neuroimaging features.
reviews. 4. Receiver-operator curve (ROC) analysis results from the ML algo-
5. Studies where access to the full text was not available despite rithm used to predict diagnosis/prognosis in the patient population,
attempts from multiple individuals involved in the screening pro- including accuracy (ACC), sensitivity (SEN), specificity (SPE), area
cess. under the curve (AUC), positive predictive value (PPV), and/or
6. Studies which did not use ML methods or only used simple logistic negative predictive value (NPV).
or linear regression methods for classification.
7. Studies which combined neuroimaging with other biomarkers,
including CSF markers and/or genetics data, in the ML algorithms 2.6 Risk of bias assessment
without reporting of model performance for neuroimaging features
without these additional biomarkers. Following the second stage of screening, all included studies were
8. Studies which focused on automated segmentation techniques assessed for risk of bias by one reviewer using a hybrid version of
which did not directly relate to diagnosis/prognosis of neurodegen- the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Critical Appraisal checklist covering
erative diseases. the areas we deemed most relevant to this area of research.36 The
9. Studies which used AI methods for feature extraction but not specific questions used for risk of bias assessment and their outcome
classification. for each study can be found in Supplementary Material 2. We only
excluded studies exhibiting clear methodological concerns, such as lack
of reporting of basic participant demographics, in order to accurately
2.4 Study selection depict and identify current barriers in the literature limiting translation
to clinical practice.
The initial records were identified using the search criteria. These
records underwent de-duplication using a Zotero ([Link]
automation tool, which flagged possible duplicate studies, and were 2.7 Data synthesis and approaches to
manually screened by a reviewer to merge genuine duplicates. Fol- classification
lowing de-duplication, all studies were screened across two stages.
During the first stage, each abstract was independently reviewed by We used descriptive statistics to determine the following character-
two reviewers to determine their eligibility for inclusion based on the istics of the extracted dataset: source of neuroimaging data, type of
outlined criteria using the screening tool Rayyan ([Link] neuroimaging used, ML methods, focus on diagnosis and/or prognosis,
ai/). Once both reviewers screened their allocated abstracts, inclu- accuracy of diagnostic/prognostic classifications, and global distribu-
sion/exclusion decisions were unblinded. For abstracts where there tion of first authors’ institutions. Studies using MRI were labeled
was disagreement between screeners, a third independent reviewer according to the types of features used for the classification task
assessed the abstract and made the final decision as to (1) progression including volumetric structural, non-volumetric structural, and func-
to full-text screening stage or (2) exclusion. tional MRI. Volumetric structural imaging was defined as MRI methods
The second stage involved full-text screening of all included studies measuring the volume of specific regions using voxel-based segmen-
by one reviewer per paper. For studies where the reviewer was unsure tation techniques. Studies were classified as using non-volumetric
if the study met the outlined criteria, a second opinion was sought and structural MRI if the features used for classification were related to
a joint decision made after discussion with the second reviewer. cortical thickness, texture, or surface area using T1- or T2-weighted
images and/or diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data. The type of AI
algorithm used for the diagnostic/prognostic classification task was
2.5 Data extraction extracted. Studies which used AI methods for feature extraction but
not classification were excluded.
One reviewer per paper manually collected data from each report inde- Given a training set of labeled features, there are multiple ways to
pendently into an Excel spreadsheet without the use of automation learn a classifier that can then be used to predict class membership for
tools. The following data were extracted from the included studies: new, unlabeled instances. We categorized classifiers according to the
object they seek to learn or model.
1. Article information: First author, year, journal, country of first
author’s affiliated institution. 1. Generative classifiers learn the joint distribution of the features
2. Study method: Patient population(s), neuroimaging modality, and labels.37 Examples include naïve Bayes and linear/quadratic dis-
source of data. For studies using different datasets relating to a criminant analysis. After training, it is possible to generate (hence
study, information regarding which specific dataset was extracted the name) new pairs of features and labels by sampling from the
where possible. For example, for ADNI studies, the specific dataset learned joint distribution.
used (ADNI-1, ADNI-2, ADNI-GO, J-ADNI) was identified and 2. Discriminative classifiers learn the conditional distribution of
recorded where available. the labels given the features.38 Examples include logistic and
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BORCHERT ET AL . 5889
F I G U R E 2 Datasets used across included studies. The majority of studies (n = 181, 71.0%) used the ADNI dataset alone or in combination with
another dataset. Local data were used in 69 (27.1%) studies. Multiple studies used a combination of two datasets or more resulting in an overlap
between the categories listed here. ADNI = Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, OASIS = Open Access Series of Imaging Studies,
AIBL = Australian Imaging, Biomarker & Lifestyle study of ageing, Bdx-3C = Bordeaux 3 Cities study, BLSA = Baltimore Longitudinal Study of
Aging, CADDementia = Computer-Aided Diagnosis of Dementia challenge, NACC = National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center.
We identified four studies which used transfer learning for ing was typically used for fine tuning neural networks, particu-
classification45–48 which were trained on ImageNet45 ADNI (nor- larly when the authors felt the dataset was not sufficiently large
mal controls and AD),46 Human Connectome Project (HCP),47 and enough to properly train the neural network algorithm. Accuracy var-
generic images,48 and were transferred to ADNI,45 ADNI (stable ied between these studies, including for the following classification
and progressive MCI),46 ADNI,47 and ADNI (sMRI).48 Transfer learn- tasks: AD versus healthy controls (90.4–99.1), MCI versus healthy
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BORCHERT ET AL . 5891
F I G U R E 3 Changes in classification methods over time. This figure shows the rise in the use of discriminative classifiers in the last 4 years. The
use of algorithmic classifiers increased up to 2015 and has remained steady since. The use of generative models has stayed relatively stable since
its first use in 2005.
controls (83.2–99.2), and MCI converters versus non-converters line measures alone for the diagnosis of AD,62 and were par-
(70.6–81.6). ticularly useful when applied to the prediction of MCI to AD
conversion.69,75,77 Of interest, longitudinal changes in volumetric MRI
may need to be considered in the context of baseline volumetry to be
3.3 MRI meaningful.74
Twenty-eight studies investigated the use of non-volumetric
The number of imaging modalities used across the included studies structural imaging features for diagnosis (n = 24) and/or progno-
can be found in Figure 5. Structural MRI and PET/SPECT were the sis/conversion (n = 7). The input consisted of T1- or T2-weighted
most frequently used imaging modalities for diagnosis and prognosis of images, DTI data, or a combination thereof, to estimate non-volumetric
dementia, being used in approximately 71% and 25% of studies respec- features such as cortical thickness, texture, and surface area. These
tively. Around half of studies leveraged structural MRI alone (134 of studies focused on (i) optimization of image pre-processing techniques,
255) and those making use of multiple modalities (49 of 255) often (ii) investigation of feature selection methods, and (iii) optimization
used sMRI and PET (35 of 49) together. It is only since 2020 that stud- of classifiers and subsequent validation of the developed method.
ies incorporating three or more different modalities have begun to The accuracy for differentiating between AD patients and healthy
appear.49–51 controls ranged from 79.2% to 99.1%. Promising developments were
In total, 68.6% (175 of 255) of studies relied on volumetric struc- noted for differential diagnosis (e.g., vascular dementia vs. AD)78
tural MRI measurements. In the few studies that tested traditional and early diagnosis distinguishing MCI and healthy controls.79–82 As
and AI approaches head-to-head, AI methods outperformed raw vol- expected, differentiating MCI subtypes and between MCI and AD
umetric measurements, for example, against hippocampal volume for cohorts was a more difficult task, which is also often the case in clinical
diagnosis52,53 and for predicting conversion of MCI to AD.54 The practice. We found that performance was lower when predicting
reported accuracy of AI methods for the diagnosis of AD varied MCI conversion to AD, or conversion of stable MCI to progressive
between 60.2% and 99.3%. Of note, estimates in the lower range MCI.83–85
were found when using a multi-class classifier (i.e., AD vs. MCI vs. Twenty-six studies (the first published in 2012) used resting-state
healthy controls, rather than AD vs. healthy controls)55,56 or where an MRI (rsMRI); we did not identify any studies using task-based MRI.
independent validation group was used.57 All but 4 studies51,52,86,87 focused on diagnosis and the majority
Contributing to heterogeneity, the aim of “diagnosis” differed (20 of 26) used ADNI data, either as the primary dataset or as
between studies using structural MRI. For example, there were 17 a replication dataset. Graph measures were often used to summa-
studies specifically targeting early diagnosis in which “early” disease rize network characteristics. Overall, the accuracy of discriminat-
was variably defined by: MMSE score < 2458–60 ; CDR 0.5-148,61–63 ; ing between AD and controls ranged between 85% and 97%, but
progression from MCI to AD within 18 months,64,65 2 years,66 3 dropped when discriminating between MCI and controls (70-88%).
years67,68 ; conversion more than 12 months after imaging69 ; or was Most studies reported the nodes which contribute most to discrimi-
not clearly defined.70–72 nation between AD and controls: there was some heterogeneity, but
Studies using longitudinal structural MRI measures (n = 6)69,73–77 most often components of the default mode network (DMN) were
suggest that multiple timepoints may be more accurate than base- identified.88–91
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5892 BORCHERT ET AL .
F I G U R E 4 Forest plot depicting AUC values for classifications of AD patients versus healthy controls. Confidence intervals are shown where
this was reported. Studies were stratified according to the type of machine learning method used including algorithmic (orange), discriminative
(blue), generative (green) and other (red). Unweighted average AUC values for each type of machine learning method is depicted with a diamond.
3.4 Neurophysiological imaging diseases including PD and FTD.92–94 The majority of the studies
(n = 21) used quantitative EEG, while the remaining used either MEG,95
We identified 24 studies which used neurophysiological imaging meth- event-related potential EEG96 , or combined EEG with SPECT.97
ods, only three of which investigated non-AD neurodegenerative Although half (n = 12) of these studies have been published since
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BORCHERT ET AL . 5893
AD (min accuracy: 56% for PET alone vs. 72% for PET and other
modalities).109,115–117,120,133–135 An additional approach used PET
and structural MRI data in combination with other markers (i.e.,
apolipoprotein E4 [APOE4] status and cognitive scores) to train a clas-
sifier, then selected neuroimaging features for classification, showing
better performance when neuroimaging data (gray matter density,
amyloid burden, APOE4 status; r = −0.68) were used to predict
individualized rate of cognitive decline in MCI, compared to cogni-
tive predictors (depression, memory and executive function scores;
r = −0.4).136 Similarly, three studies showed that SPECT is able to
classify MCI and AD, but its predictive value for MCI conversion
improved when combined with other imaging modalities or cognitive
F I G U R E 5 Imaging modalities used across included studies.
assessments.97,137,138
fMRI = functional MRI, DTI = diffusion tensor imaging,
DWI = Diffusion weighted imaging, EEG = Electroencephalography,
MEG = magnetoencephalography MT = magnetization transfer,
PET = positron emission tomography, sMRI = structural MRI, 3.6 Approaches to prognosis in AD
SPECT = single photon emission computed tomography.
Fifty-four studies investigated either prognosis or a combination of
2018, this cohort of publications also included some of the earliest diagnosis and prognosis. The majority were retrospective designs
studies identified in this review starting in 2005.98,99 All neurophys- (51 of 54). Of 54 studies, 47 (87%) looked at prognosis in terms
iological studies used data from their local institution, the largest of of MCI to AD conversion. Of these studies, two approaches were
which included EEG recordings from 272 participants,100 although used to evaluate the performance of prognostic predictions; some
most studies (n = 13) included less than 50 participants. In a man- exclusively used baseline data (fixed), while others used multi-
ner similar to other imaging modalities, SVM was the most common ple imaging time points (continuous) and related these to time to
(n = 12) ML tool used and no other algorithm was used in more than conversion.
three studies. Accuracy of discrimination between AD and healthy con- MRI alone was the main imaging modality used (36 of 54 studies)
trols varied from 69% in the single MEG study95 up to 100% in one with an additional six studies combining MRI and PET. Nine studies
study using four EEG features.101 used only PET data,102,111–113,116,122,126,139 one used SPECT,137 and
two used EEG data.93,95 The main outcome measure for these studies
was conversion to AD from MCI over a prespecified period of time (47
3.5 PET/SPECT imaging of 54 studies). A smaller proportion of studies (n = 4) used cognitive
decline as an outcome measure. Similar to the diagnostic studies dis-
Sixty-five studies were identified using PET imaging, aiming to improve cussed in this review, the majority of the neuroimaging data came from
early diagnosis (n = 46), prognosis (n = 13), or both (n = 6) using ML the ADNI database (78%, 42 of 54 studies). An additional three studies
approaches. The most commonly used approach was SVM (n = 27), combined local datasets with ADNI.
which when applied to FDG PET, demonstrated an accuracy of over Thirty-eight studies used only baseline imaging data to predict a
85% in studies for detecting AD hypometabolic patterns102–104 and future diagnosis with a range of accuracy between 65% and 96% (mean
outperformed structural MRI when compared head-to-head.105,106 AUC 0.79, standard deviation 0.09). Seven used multiple imaging time-
Using SVM with FDG PET data distinguished AD (>86% accuracy) points to make predictions with accuracies between 73% and 92%
and MCI (>78.8% accuracy) from controls and predicted MCI conver- (mean AUC 0.81, standard deviation 0.10). One paper found a sub-
sion within 12 months and up to 5 years with accuracies ranging from stantial improvement with longitudinal data (AUC 0.93) compared to
72% to 80%.107–118 The same approach applied to amyloid PET also baseline data alone (AUC 0.54),111 and a second paper achieved a
demonstrated accuracies of >85% for predicting MCI conversion and high level of accuracy using baseline neuroimaging information with
diagnosing AD.115,117,119–121 Non-SVM approaches, such as convolu- longitudinal cognitive scores (AUC = 0.90).70
tional neural networks and deep learning, on FDG PET and amyloid Time to conversion was divided into two categories: conver-
PET showed variable performance in predicting a final diagnosis of AD, sion within a fixed timeframe (42 of 47), or a continuous mea-
cognitive decline, or MCI conversion,46,122–132 with accuracy between sure of time of conversion (5 of 47). Of those that used a fixed
75% and 100%. Model accuracy in multicenter studies (>70% accu- timeframe, 5 studies considered conversion within 1 year (AUC
racy) was lower than that of those relying on local datasets (>78% range: 0.72-0.90), 8 studies within 18 months (AUC range: 0.68-
accuracy). 0.79), 5 studies within 2 years (AUC range: 0.74-0.96), 17 stud-
Compared to ML methods which used PET alone, those which ies within 3 years (AUC range: 0.65-0.93), and 7 studies pre-
combined imaging modalities (i.e., FDG PET, amyloid PET, and/or dicted conversion over 3 years with a maximum of within 10 years
MRI) were more accurate in terms of diagnosis of both MCI and (AUC range: 0.54-0.91).
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5894 BORCHERT ET AL .
The main outcome of the remaining studies that did not focus on tural MRI alone or in combination with another MRI modality or PET,
MCI to AD progression (7 of 54) varied; 2 of 7 predicted cognitive almost all of which focused on AD. The size of the ADNI data has led
scores (Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale—Cognitive Subscale to a rapid rise since 2017 in the use of more complex discriminative AI
[ADAS-Cog]) over time using longitudinal MRI,140,141 while 2 other methodologies, including deep learning models. These more complex
studies predicted both cognitive scores (Mini Mental State Exami- models have in general outperformed simpler algorithmic and gen-
nation [MMSE]) and MCI to AD conversion within 24 months.77,142 erative models, although comparison between studies is challenging
Additionally, two of seven studies predicted conversion from cogni- given differences in diagnostic criteria and outcome measures. Most
tively normal to AD in 759 and 2 years.64,143 Finally, only one paper studies of diagnosis published ROC curve analysis results; however,
examined prognosis in non-AD neurodegenerative diseases, namely there were marked differences between studies in definitions such
PD and DLB93 with an AUC of 0.87. as “early” dementia, and in the outcome measures used in prognos-
tic studies. There remain significant gaps in the literature including
non-Alzheimer’s neurodegenerative diseases (most strikingly vascular
3.7 Non-Alzheimer’s dementias dementia with only two studies), the limited application of promis-
ing neurophysiology methods, and validation in clinically relevant
The majority of studies that included patients with non-Alzheimer’s populations.
dementia used neuroimaging features to improve the differential ML methods have been successfully applied to almost every aspect
diagnosis between different dementia diagnoses. In total, 17 studies of neurodegenerative disease.155 A previous review of ML for neu-
included a non-AD dementia group, 14 featured a non-AD dementia roimaging in dementia included studies up to 2016,42 since when
as the diagnosis of interest, with the remaining 3 using the non-AD the field has expanded rapidly. Approximately 60% of the studies we
groups as a control group. FTD or behavioral variant FTD (bvFTD) was included (n = 152) have been published since 2016. Some progress has
the most commonly investigated non-AD dementia, with seven stud- been made on the concerns raised by Pellegrini and colleagues, includ-
ies having FTD or bvFTD as their main focus.92,93,144–148 These studies ing the overreliance on SVM classifiers and MRI. SVM was still the most
attempted differential diagnosis of FTD (from AD and/or LBD) most frequently used classifier in our cohort which is unsurprising given that
often using neuropsychological data and structural imaging (four of it was one of the first widely adopted methods. However, the overre-
seven studies), with two studies using EEG92,94 and one using struc- liance on SVM classifiers has reduced, reflecting the rapid growth of
tural MRI for classification based on post-mortem pathology.147 Five this field and moving toward the use of a range of ML methodologies,
studies used data routinely collected in clinics (for example, from mem- as well as PET and/or multimodal approaches. However, despite this
ory clinics) to attempt differential diagnosis between patient groups surge in studies, several barriers prevent the integration of these novel
based on imaging features and typically included FTD, LBD, PSP, CBD, methods into everyday clinical practice. Below we discuss three critical
PD dementia, and vascular dementia.53,149–152 issues identified from this systematic review: (1) reporting and repro-
Structural MRI was the most frequently used imaging modality ducibility of methodology, (2) addressing clinically relevant questions,
(11 of 17 studies). Two studies focused on the differential diagnosis (3) validation of results.
between PD and LBD,93,153 and only two on vascular dementia.78,154
The majority of studies used data from local hospitals or memory clin-
ics (14 of 17 studies); one paper used local data combined with ADNI,57 4.1 Methodological considerations
and three studies used multi-center or cohort data.144,148,150 Since
the majority of studies utilized prospective or retrospective data from While it is encouraging to see a wide range of methods applied to neu-
local clinics, datasets were relatively small compared to multi-center roimaging data, the multiplicity of approaches creates a challenge in
studies like ADNI with most studies including 60 to 100 patients and assessing the validity of each method, comparing between differing
some as low as 15 patients in a single diagnostic category.78 The stud- models, and independently reproducing the results. Although we did
ies with larger patient numbers tended to come from multi-center not systematically review reproducibility, in general we found limited
studies144,150 or used retrospective data over a long period of time.147 descriptions of many models, and only a minority of studies reported
the availability of code to enable replication.
Reproducibility and transparency in neuroimaging research is an
4 DISCUSSION increasingly prominent issue, most clearly outlined by Poldrack and
colleagues.156 The neuroimaging field has led the way in open science
In this systematic review, we examined 255 published studies using efforts, such as large data sharing platforms pioneered by the Human
neuroimaging alone for the diagnosis or prognosis of neurodegenera- Connectome Project,157 and introducing best practice for analysis and
tive disease. The vast majority of studies (71%) used the ADNI dataset data sharing through the COBIDAS guidelines.158,159 To increase the
which primarily uses MRI and focuses on the conversion from MCI reliability of results, pre-registering analysis through platforms such
to AD. The dominance of ADNI means that this emphasis is reflected as the Open Science Framework160 has been advocated for in both
in the published literature, with the majority of studies using struc- neuroimaging studies161 and ML methodologies.162 More generally,
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BORCHERT ET AL . 5895
staged approaches to model validation in ML are available to improve 4.3 Validation of results
confidence in model performance.25
We found that the combination of multiple imaging modalities, We found that studies using an independent dataset for validation, as
such as MRI and PET, improved the performance of ML models for opposed to cross-validation or other similar methods, reported much
classification tasks related to AD. We speculate that using features lower accuracy, particularly when a community-based population was
from multiple modalities enables the models to train on several dif- used. For instance, applying an SVM classifier trained on ADNI and
ferent biomarkers which provide a more holistic representation of the applied to memory clinics found markedly reduced accuracy in the clin-
underlying disease mechanisms, such as changes in structure (volu- ical setting (AUC = 0.76 for AD diagnosis) compared to that in the
metric MRI), network-connectivity metrics (resting-state fMRI), and training dataset (AUC = 0.96).57 A few recent studies have addressed
metabolic physiology (PET). Although the results suggest this approach the risk of overfitting by assessing generalizability in unseen inde-
may be beneficial, the limited number of studies identified here using pendent research datasets,104,165,166 collectively demonstrating the
this method means that it is difficult to suggest which combinations of value of this approach in identifying methodological issues relevant to
modalities will be best at improving the performance of ML models. the overall model performance. Therefore, validation studies are crit-
ical, particularly those in a memory clinic setting where the tools are
ultimately to be used.
4.2 Addressing key clinical questions The over-reliance on a single dataset such as ADNI introduces
potential ethnic and socio-economic biases to models that may ham-
Relevant clinical questions can be split into early diagnosis, differential per generalization, an issue that has been specifically raised in the
diagnosis, prognosis and predicting response to treatment. There were ADNI dataset.167 Concerns have been raised more generally about bias
no studies investigating the response to treatment, perhaps unsurpris- in ML models,168 including in the context of health applications.169
ingly given that the currently widely available treatments for dementia This is of particular concern in marginalized ethnic groups who
are symptomatic rather than disease modifying. The majority of stud- have poorer health indicators in general,170 and who may miss out
ies considered the diagnosis of AD, or the prognostic prediction of on access to health services due to socio-demographic, cultural, or
MCI conversion to early AD. However, variability in definitions such as religious beliefs,171 including dementia services.172,173 More repre-
“early Alzheimer’s disease” limited comparison between studies. This sentative datasets are critical for models to translate reliably to all
partly reflects the wider field where, for example, a clear definition parts of the population, to inform risk prediction models, and work
of MCI has remained elusive despite recent efforts to reach such a toward closing gaps in health inequality related to dementia. Address-
consensus.163 ing bias in these collected datasets, and differences between genetic
We found no studies that assessed the common clinical challenge or ethnic groups in model performance, or applicability to different
of differential diagnosis from among multiple (>2) possible diagnoses. socio-economic populations, will be critical to address in ongoing data
This is a much harder problem to solve for ML algorithms because it collection. It is unlikely that a single study or a single dataset can
requires a multi-class classifier which is computationally more chal- properly address these challenging issues, so collaboration between
lenging and typically yields lower accuracy than a binary classifier. studies and between countries is required. This is happening to some
The lack of appropriate multiclass data is a major limitation, partic- extent in initiatives such as J-ADNI in Japan which is almost identi-
ularly given the reliance on the ADNI dataset that consists almost cal to the North American protocol and has been used to compare
exclusively of amnestic MCI or AD patients. The National Alzheimer’s diagnosis and progression in dementia between both cohorts.174
Coordinating Center dataset has Alzheimer’s and non-Alzheimer’s Other examples include the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI-
dementia patients from a real-world setting,164 but is much more vari- DAD)175 and through initiatives such as the Genetic Frontotemporal
able in scanning sequences (including MRI field strengths), and reports dementia Initiative (GeNFI),176 which recruits multi-nationally. Feder-
clinically defined diagnoses rather than research diagnostic criteria. ated learning may also help address this issue by providing broader
ROC curve analysis was widely used to characterize diagnostic accessibility to datasets from diverse backgrounds and international
classification performance. In particular, we found the AUC is often sources.
reported as the main measure of classification between groups, usually A number of methodological approaches are available for mea-
accompanied by the PPV and NPV. The PPV and NPV are more rele- suring or mitigating bias.177 Examples include the geometric solution
vant to clinical practice, providing interpretation of the proportion of to learn fair representations (He et al. 2020),178 which removes
correct positive and negative results for a classification. The outcome correlations between the data and specified protected features, as
measure for prognostic studies is more challenging. We found that well as IBM’s AI Fairness 360 toolkit (Bellamy et al. 2019),179
studies predicting prognosis usually grouped outcomes and applied which provides an accessible set of fairness metrics for a model and
ROC curve analysis. This is particularly relevant for predicting MCI to accompanying explanations to help mitigate bias. We did not find
AD conversion; however, it is not applicable to other situations, such as the issue of bias to be discussed or addressed in the studies we
predicting the rate of cognitive decline in established dementia. reviewed.
15525279, 2023, 12, Downloaded from [Link] by NICE, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, Wiley Online Library on [22/10/2025]. See the Terms and Conditions ([Link] on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License
5896 BORCHERT ET AL .
BOX 1: Recommendations to move toward clinically use- establishing large, diverse datasets, external validation and consensus
ful, machine learning methods applied to neuroimaging for definitions, we will also need to address translational challenges more
18
may have been heterogeneity in this assessment between screeners. Imaging Physics, University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust,
We chose a low threshold for inclusion based on study quality in Southampton, UK
19
order to accurately depict and identify current barriers in the litera- Research into Memory, Brain sciences and dementia Group (ReMemBr Group),
Translational Health Sciences, Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol,
ture limiting translation to clinical practice. We only excluded studies
Bristol, UK
exhibiting clear methodological concerns, such as lack of reporting 20
Artificial Intelligence & Computational Neuroscience Group (AICN Group),
of basic participant demographics. The screening tool had a binary Sheffield Institute for Translational Neuroscience (SITraN), Department of Neu-
outcome (inclusion/exclusion), and we were unable to investigate the roscience, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
potential relationship between study quality and ML performance. 21
Department of Biomedical Sciences, Humanitas University, Pieve Emanuele,
Italy
22
University of Cambridge Medical Library, Cambridge, UK
5 CONCLUSIONS 23
Medical Research Council Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit, University of
Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
24
In this systematic review, we generate a number of recommendations Department of Neurosciences, Biomedicine and Movement Sciences, Univer-
sity of Verona, Verona, Italy
to facilitate translation of ML methods for patient benefit in the diag-
25
Information School, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
nosis and prognosis of dementia. We highlight issues of methodological
26
heterogeneity, clinical relevance of results, and validation/replication Division of Genetics and Genomics, Boston Children’s Hospital, Harvard
Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
of findings. We offer a set of recommendations to address key gaps
27
Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, UK
in the literature including the importance of addressing key clinical
28
Department of Neurology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical
questions, providing sufficient details of AI methods, and validating
School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
findings in independent datasets which are clinically relevant. Look-
29
Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
ing forward, the field is likely to move toward the establishment
30
Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon
of real-world datasets, multi-model imaging methods, and complex
Tyne, UK
ML algorithms emphasizing the importance of providing sufficient 31
Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
methodological details to enable independent replication. We are opti-
32
Alan Turing Institute, London, UK
mistic that addressing these concerns will accelerate the translation of
33
Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
ML methods for patient benefit in neurodegenerative disease.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
AFFILIATIONS
1
Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, Robin J. Borchert, Michele Veldsman, Timothy Rittman contributed to
UK the conception of the work, drafting and revision of the manuscript
2
Department of Radiology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK for intellectual content. Robin J. Borchert, Michele Veldsman, Tim-
3
Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge, othy Rittman, Jose Bernal, Eugene Tang contributed to the devel-
Cambridge, UK opment of the protocol. Veronica Phillips conducted the literature
4
Department of Pharmacology and Physiology, University of Montreal, Montreal, search. Robin J. Borchert coordinated the screening process. Robin J.
Canada
Borchert, Michele Veldsman, Timothy Rittman, Tiago Azevedo, Aman-
5
Centre de recherche de l’Institut Universitaire de Gériatrie (CRIUGM), Mon- Preet Badhwar, Jose Bernal, Matthew Betts, Rose Bruffaerts, Helena
treal, Canada
M. Gellersen, Audrey Low, Christopher R. Madan, Maura Malpetti,
6
Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Jhony Mejia, Sofia Michopoulou, Carlos Muñoz-Neira, Marion Peres,
7
Institute of Cognitive Neurology and Dementia Research, Otto-von-Guericke
Siddharth Ramanan, Stefano Tamburin, Hanz M. Tantiangco, Lokendra
University Magdeburg, Magdeburg, Germany
Thakur, Alessandro Tomassini, Ashwati Vipin, Eugene Tang, Danielle
8
German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases (DZNE), Magdeburg, Germany
Newby screened papers for inclusion in the review. Robin J. Borchert,
9
Center for Behavioral Brain Sciences, University of Magdeburg, Magdeburg,
Jose Bernal, Helena M. Gellersen, Audrey Low, Jhony Mejia, Carlos
Germany
10
Muñoz-Neira, Marion Peres, Hanz M. Tantiangco extracted data from
Computational Neurology, Experimental Neurobiology Unit, Department of
Biomedical Sciences, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium eligible papers. Robin J. Borchert, Michele Veldsman, Timothy Rittman,
11
Biomedical Research Institute, Hasselt University, Diepenbeek, Belgium
Jose Bernal, Lokendra Thakur contributed to analysis and interpreta-
12 tion of the data. Lokendra Thakur contributed to the meta-analytic
Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
13
approach. Robin J. Borchert, Michele Veldsman, Timothy Rittman,
Department of Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
AmanPreet Badhwar, Jose Bernal, Matthew Betts, Rose Bruffaerts,
14
University of Exeter Medical School, Exeter, UK
Michael C. Burkhart, Ilse Dewachter, Audrey Low, Luiza Machado,
15
Department of Biochemistry, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto
Maura Malpetti, Jhony Mejia, Sofia Michopoulou, Jack Pepys, Stefano
Alegre, Brazil
16
Tamburin, Lokendra Thakur, Ashwati Vipin contributed to the writing
School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
of the manuscript. Michele Veldsman and Timothy Rittman provided
17
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Universidad de Los Andes, Bogotá,
Colombia
study supervision. Janice M. Ranson and David J. Llewellyn conceived
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5898 BORCHERT ET AL .
and organized the symposium from which this paper and others in Research and Treatment (ISTAART), through the Artificial Intelligence
the series originated, obtained funding, contributed to the concep- for Precision Dementia Medicine professional interest area. The views
tion of the work, revised the manuscript for intellectual content, and and opinions expressed by authors in this publication represent those
harmonized the manuscript with other papers in the series. Ilianna of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the PIA mem-
Lourida revised the manuscript for intellectual content and harmo- bership, ISTAART or the Alzheimer’s Association. [Correction added on
nized the manuscript with other papers in the series. All authors read 01 September 2023, after first online publication: The preceding two
and approved the final manuscript. sentences were added.]
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