CSC 482

Modelling & Simulation

Complete Course Study Guide
─────────────────────────────────────────
Topics Covered:
1. Meaning of Modelling & Simulation
2. Types of Models
3. Statistics & Uses of Statistics
4. Mean, Median & Mode
5. Variance & Standard Deviation
6. Correlation Coefficient
7. Queuing System & Average Waiting Time
TOPIC 1 MODELLING & SIMULATION

What is a Model?
A model is a pattern, representation, or description designed to show the structure or working of
an object, system, or concept. Models help us understand, analyze, and predict real-world
systems without directly experimenting on them.

What is Simulation?
Simulation is the process of using a model to imitate the behavior of a real-world system over
time. It allows us to study how a system behaves under different conditions without the cost or
risk of real experiments.

Why Use Modelling & Simulation?

• To study systems that are too complex, expensive, or dangerous to test in real life
• To predict future behavior of systems
• To train people without real-world risk (e.g., flight simulators)
• To test new designs before building them
• To optimize system performance

Processes of Modelling
1. Problem Formulation — Clearly define what problem the model will solve
2. Data Collection & Analysis — Gather data using questionnaires, interviews,
observations, experiments
3. Simulation Model Development — Build the actual simulation model
4. Model Verification, Validation & Calibration — Ensure the model is correct and
accurate

Verification Validation
Are we building the system RIGHT? Are we building the RIGHT system?
Checks internal logic & code Checks if model matches real world
Checks if equations are correct Compares output to real data
Done by developers/engineers Done by domain experts
Calibration: Using data (e.g., entities like students) to represent real-world values within the
model.
TOPIC 2 TYPES OF MODELS

Physical Models
Tangible, scaled replicas of a real object. Examples: a globe, an architectural scale model, a toy
airplane.

Mathematical / Analytical Models

Use equations and formulas to represent a system. Examples: queuing formulas, statistical
equations, financial models.

Computer / Simulation Models

Use software to model and simulate real-world behavior. Examples: traffic simulators, weather
forecasting programs, economic models.

Conceptual Models
Diagrams, flowcharts, or descriptions that explain how a system works without numbers.
Examples: a flowchart of a process, a system diagram.

Type Description Example

Physical Scaled real-world replica Globe, model airplane
Mathematical Uses equations & formulas Queuing theory formulas
Computer/ Software-based system model Weather forecast, traffic sim
Simulation
Conceptual Diagrams & descriptions Flowchart, system diagram
TOPIC 3 STATISTICS & ITS USES

What is Statistics?
Statistics is the science of collecting, organizing, analyzing, interpreting, and presenting data. It
helps us make decisions based on data.

Uses / Importance of Statistics

• Helps in decision making in business, government, and research
• Used in planning and policy formulation
• Helps predict future trends and outcomes
• Used in quality control in manufacturing
• Essential in medical research and clinical trials
• Used in economic and financial analysis
• Forms the foundation of modelling and simulation

Two Main Branches

Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics
Describes existing data Makes predictions/inferences
Uses tables, charts, graphs Based on sample data
Mean, median, mode Hypothesis testing
Variance, standard deviation Confidence intervals
TOPIC 4 MEAN, MEDIAN & MODE

These are the three Measures of Central Tendency — they describe the center or typical value
of a data set.

Mean (Average)
The mean is the sum of all values divided by the number of values.

Mean (Ungrouped) x̄ = Σx / n Sum of all values divided by count

Mean (Grouped) x̄ = Σfx / Σf f = frequency, x = midpoint of

class

Example: Data set {1, 2, 3, 2, 4, 5, 2}

Mean = (1+2+3+2+4+5+2) / 7 = 19/7 ≈ 2.71

Median
The median is the middle value when data is arranged in order. It is not affected by extreme
values (outliers).
• If n is odd: Median = value at position (n+1)/2
• If n is even: Median = average of the two middle values
Example: {1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5} → Median = 2 (4th value, middle of 7)

Mode
The mode is the value that appears most frequently in a data set.
• A data set can have no mode, one mode (unimodal), or multiple modes
(bimodal/multimodal)
Example: {1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5} → Mode = 2 (appears 3 times)

When to Use Each

Measure Best Used When Weakness
Mean Data is normally distributed, no Affected by outliers
extreme values
Median Data has extreme values / outliers Ignores other values
Mode Finding most common category or May not be unique
value
TOPIC 5 VARIANCE & STANDARD DEVIATION

Variance and Standard Deviation are Measures of Dispersion — they tell us how spread out the
data is from the mean.

Variance (σ²)
Variance measures the average squared deviation of each value from the mean.

Variance σ² = Σ(x - x̄ )² / n Average of squared deviations

(Ungrouped)

Variance (Grouped) σ² = (Σfx²/Σf) - Used with frequency tables

(Σfx/Σf)²

Standard Deviation (σ)

Standard deviation is the square root of the variance. It is in the same units as the original data,
making it easier to interpret.

Std. Deviation σ = √σ² = √Variance Square root of variance

Worked Example (from your notes)

Using grouped frequency data with Σf = 68, Σfx = 3271, Σfx² = 161637:

Step 1: Variance σ² = 161637/68 - = 2377.01 - (48.10)²

(3271/68)²

Step 2: Calculate σ² = 2377.01 - 2313.89 = Variance ≈ 63.12

63.12

Step 3: Std. Dev. σ = √63.12 ≈ 7.95 Standard deviation ≈ 7.95

Interpretation
• Small σ: Data values are clustered close to the mean
• Large σ: Data values are spread far from the mean
• σ = 0: All values are identical
TOPIC 6 CORRELATION COEFFICIENT

What is Correlation?
The correlation coefficient is a number that tells you how strongly two variables are related and
in what direction. The most common is Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (r), which measures
the linear relationship between two variables.

Range of r -1 ≤ r ≤ +1 Always between -1 and +1

Interpreting the Correlation Coefficient

Value of r Strength Meaning
+1 Perfect Positive Both variables increase together perfectly

0.7 to 0.99 Strong Positive As X increases, Y tends to increase strongly

0.3 to 0.69 Moderate Positive Moderate tendency to increase together

0 to 0.29 Weak/No Little or no linear relationship

-1 Perfect Negative As X increases, Y decreases perfectly (inverse)

-0.7 to -0.99 Strong Negative Strong inverse relationship

0 No Correlation No linear relationship between variables

Key Points to Remember

• Correlation does NOT mean causation — two variables can be correlated without one
causing the other
• r = +1: Perfect positive correlation (both variables increase together)
• r = -1: Perfect negative correlation (one increases as the other decreases)
• r = 0: No linear relationship between the two variables
• If result is 0, means no linear relationship
TOPIC 7 QUEUING SYSTEM & AVERAGE WAITING
TIME

What is a Queuing System?

A queuing system is a model that describes the waiting of customers (people, tasks, jobs) for
service. It is used to study waiting lines and service efficiency.

Key Notation
Symbol Meaning Example
λ (lambda) Arrival rate — customers per unit time λ = 4 customers/hour
μ (mu) Service rate — customers served per μ = 6 customers/hour
unit time
Ws Average time in system (waiting + Ws = 30 minutes
service)
Wq Average waiting time in queue only Wq = 20 minutes
Ls Average number of customers in Ls = λ × Ws
system
Lq Average number of customers in Lq = λ × Wq
queue

Key Queuing Formulas (M/M/1 Queue)

The M/M/1 model assumes: Poisson arrivals, Exponential service times, 1 server.

Avg. Time in System Ws = 1 / (μ - λ) Total time from arrival to leaving

Avg. Wait in Queue Wq = λ / [μ(μ - λ)] Time waiting before being served

Avg. Service Time Ws - Wq = 1/μ Actual service time only

Worked Example (from your notes)

Given: λ = 4 customers/hour, μ = 6 customers/hour
 Ws (System) Ws = 1/(6-4) = 1/2 = 0.5 = 30 minutes
hrs

Wq (Queue) Wq = 4/[6(6-4)] = 4/12 = ≈ 0.33 hrs = 20 minutes

1/3

Service Time Ws - Wq = 30 - 20 = 10 Actual time being served

minutes

Interpretation of Results
• Avg. waiting time (Ws) is 30 minutes — time from joining queue to completing service
• Wq is the waiting time in the queue before service begins (20 minutes)
• Avg. service time = 10 minutes (the actual serving time)
• If μ ≤ λ, the queue grows indefinitely — the system cannot handle the load

Quick Summary — All Formulas

Topic Formula Notes
Mean (Ungrouped) x̄ = Σx / n n = number of values
Mean (Grouped) x̄ = Σfx / Σf f = frequency, x = midpoint
Variance (Grouped) σ² = Σfx²/Σf - (Σfx/Σf)² Grouped frequency formula
Std. Deviation σ = √σ² Square root of variance
Avg. System Time Ws = 1/(μ - λ) Queuing: total time in system
Avg. Queue Wait Wq = λ/[μ(μ-λ)] Queuing: wait before service
Service Time Ws - Wq = 1/μ Actual service duration
Correlation -1 ≤ r ≤ +1 +1 perfect positive, -1 perfect
negative

Good Luck with your Exams! 🎓