Probability

QUANTITATIVE APTITUDE

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Probability
Probability means the chances of occurring of an event. Mathematically, probability of
happening an event is equal to the ratio of number of favorable outcomes to number of
possible outcomes.
Number of favorable outcomes
Probability of happening an event=
Total number of possible outcomes

For e.g.- if the probability of any particular event is 1/4, then it indicates that there is
25% chance that an event will occur and 75% chance that an event will not occur.

Important Terms

Experiment
An action where the result is uncertain. Some examples of experiment are throwing
dice, tossing coin, selecting a card from playing cards etc.

Sample space
A sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of that experiment.
For example, if we throw a dice then the sample space will be {1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6}.
Number of sample spaces of tossing n coins = 2n
Number of sample spaces of tossing n dices = 6n

Favorable outcome
The outcome in which we are interested is known as favorable outcome.

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Event
The single result of an experiment is called event. For example getting a head is an
event related to tossing of a coin.

Union of Events
It occurs if the event A occurs or the event B occurs i.e. it consists of all the outcomes
that are either in A or in B or in both events. It is denoted by (A ∪ B).

Intersection of Events
It occurs if the event A occurs and the event B occurs i.e. it consists of all the outcomes
that are both in A and B. It is denoted by (A ∩ B).

Equally Likely Event

Each outcome of the random experiment has an equal chance of occurring. For
example if we toss a coin then head and tail will be equally likely events.

Mutually Exclusive Event

Two events E1 and E2 are called mutually exclusive event if the probability of happening
of both events simultaneously is zero. P(E1 and E2) = P(E1 ∩ E2) = 0

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Mutually Exhaustive Event

Two events E1 and E2 are called mutually exhaustive event if the probability of
happening of either events is equal to 1.

Independent Event
Two events E1 and E2 are called independent events if occurrence of either event does
not affect other event. For example getting head on tossing a coin is independent event

Rule #1 : Additional Rule of Probability

When two events E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive, then the probability of happening
of E1 or E2 is equal to the sum of the probability of each event.

P(E1 or E2) = P(E1 ∪ E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)

But, when two events E1 and E2 are non-mutually exclusive, then the probability of
happening of E1 or E2 is

P(E1 or E2) = P(E1 ∪ E2) = P(E1) + P(E2) – P(E1 ∩ E2)

Rule #2 : Multiplication Rule of Probability

When two events E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive, then the probability of happening of
E1 and E2 is equal to the multiplication of the probability of each event.
P(E1 and E2) = P(E1 ∩ E2) = P(E1) × P(E2)

Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event E2 in relation to an event E1 is the probability that
the event E2 occurs given that event E1 has already occurred. It is denoted by P (E2/E1).
P(E2/E1) = P(E1 ∩ E2)/P(E1)

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Binomial Probability Theorem

A binomial is a type of distribution that has only two possible outcomes i.e. success or
failure. For example if a coin is tossed then possible outcome is either head or tail.
By Binomial Probability Theorem,

P = nCr(p)n – r(q)r

Where, n = Total events, r = Required number of events, p = Probability of success,

q = Probability of failure

Points to Remember
 There are total 52 cards in the deck of playing cards.
 There are 26 red and 26 black cards.
 There are 4 suits - clubs (♣), diamonds (♦), hearts (♥) and spades (♠)
 There are 13 cards in each suit. Each suit contains Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,
Jack, Queen and King.
 There are 12 face cards – 4 king, 4 queen and 4 jack in each suit.

Q. There are 6 red and 4 blue marbles in a bag. Find the probability of picking
blue marble.
A. Number of favorable events = Picking of blue marbles = 4
Number of total events = 6 + 4 = 10
∴ Probability of picking blue marble = 4/10 = 0.4.

Q. A coin is tossed and 6 sided dice is rolled. Find probability of getting a tail of
coin and getting 6 on dice?
A. Probability of getting tail on coin (E1) = 1/2
Probability of getting 6 on dice (E2) = 1/6
∴ P(E1 ∩ E2) = 1/2 × 1/6 = 1/12.

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Q. From a pack of 52 cards, a card is drawn at random. Find the probability that it
is either a diamond or king.
A. Probability of getting a king, P(E1) = 4/52 = 1/13
Probability of getting a diamond, P(E2) = 13/52 = 1/4
Probability of getting king and diamond, P(E1 ∩ E2) = 1/13 × 1/4 = 1/52
∴ Probability of getting king or diamond = P(E1) + P(E2) – P(E1 ∩ E2)
= 1/13 + 1/4 - 1/52 = 4/13

Q. Four persons can hit a target correctly with probabilities 1/2, 1/3, 1/4 and 1/8
respectively. If all hit at the target independently, then the probability that the
target would be hit, is:
A. P (at least one hit the target) = 1 – P (none of them hit the target)
= 1 – {(1 – 1/2) (1 – 1/3) (1 – 1/4) (1 – 1/8)}
= 1 – {(1/2) (2/3) (3/4) (7/8)}
= 1 – 7/32 = 25/32.

Q. Q: If a fair coin is tossed 7 times. What is the probability that exactly 4 coins
are head and 3 coins are tail?
A. By Binomial Probability Theorem, P = nCr(p)n – r(q)r
Here, n = 7, r = 4, p = 1/2 and q = ½
∴ P = 7C4 × (1/2)3 × (1/2)4 = 35/128.
Alternate method:
Probability of getting HHHHTTT = (1/2)7
Number of ways in which 4 heads and 3 tails can be arranged = 7!
Number of repetition of heads = 4 and of tail = 3.
Hence, required probability, P = [7! × (1/2)7]/[3! × 4!] = 35/128.

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