Conditional Probabilities
Conditional Probabilities in Dice Tossing
Problem Setup:
▶ Toss 2 dice: each of the 36 outcomes is equally likely, 36 1
.
▶ Given that the first die is a 3, find the probability that the
sum of the dice equals 8.
Possible Outcomes:
▶ Possible outcomes when the first die is 3:
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6)
▶ Conditional probability of each outcome: 1
6.
Favorable Outcome:
▶ To get a sum of 8, the favorable outcome is (3, 5).
▶ Thus, the conditional probability is:
1
P(sum = 8 | first die = 3) = .
6
Conditional Probability and Conclusion
Conditional Probability Formula:
▶ Let E be the event that the sum is 8 and F the event that the
first die is 3.
▶ The general formula for conditional probability is:
P(E ∩ F )
P(E | F ) = , P(F ) > 0.
P(F )
Conclusion:
▶ We used the conditional probability formula to calculate that
the probability of the sum being 8, given that the first die is 3,
is 16 .
Problem Setup and Calculation
Problem Setup:
▶ A student is taking a one-hour exam.
▶ Probability of finishing in less than x hours: x
2, for 0 ≤ x ≤ 1.
▶ Given the student is still working after 0.75 hour, find the
probability they will use the full hour.
Step 1: Calculate P(F ) Let F be the event the student uses the
full hour:
▶ P(F ) = P(Lc1 ) = 1 − P(L1 )
▶ P(L1 ) = 12 , P(F ) = 1 − 1
2 = 0.5
Conditional Probability Calculation
Step 2: Calculate P(F | Lc0.75 )
P(F ∩ Lc0.75 ) P(F )
P(F | Lc0.75 ) = =
P(Lc0.75 ) P(Lc0.75 )
▶ P(Lc0.75 ) = 1 − P(L0.75 ) = 1 − 0.75
2 = 0.625
0.5
▶ P(F | Lc0.75 ) = 0.625 = 0.8
Conclusion: The conditional probability that the student uses the
full hour given they are still working after 0.75 hour is 0.8.
Problem Setup
▶ A coin is flipped twice, with the sample space
S = {(h, h), (h, t), (t, h), (t, t)}.
▶ Each outcome in S is equally likely.
▶ What is the conditional probability that both flips land on
heads given that:
▶ (a) the first flip lands on heads?
▶ (b) at least one flip lands on heads?
Solution (Part a)
Let:
▶ B = {(h, h)} be the event that both flips land on heads.
▶ F = {(h, h), (h, t)} be the event that the first flip lands on
heads.
Conditional Probability:
P(B ∩ F ) P({(h, h)})
P(B | F ) = =
P(F ) P({(h, h), (h, t)})
Since:
1 2
P(B) = , P(F ) = ,
4 4
we have:
1
4 1
P(B | F ) = 2
= .
4
2
Thus, the conditional probability that both flips land on heads
given that the first flip lands on heads is 12 .
Solution (Part b)
Let:
▶ A = {(h, h), (h, t), (t, h)} be the event that at least one flip
lands on heads.
Conditional Probability:
P(B ∩ A) P({(h, h)})
P(B | A) = =
P(A) P({(h, h), (h, t), (t, h)})
Since:
3
P(A) = ,
4
we have:
1
4 1
P(B | A) = 3
= .
4
3
Thus, the conditional probability that both flips land on heads
given that at least one flip lands on heads is 13 .
Conclusion
▶ For part (a), the conditional probability is 12 , meaning the
probability of both flips landing on heads given the first one is
heads is 50
▶ For part (b), the conditional probability is 13 , meaning the
probability of both flips landing on heads given at least one
flip lands on heads is 33.33
▶ This result can be surprising, but it occurs because there are 3
equally likely outcomes given that at least one flip is heads,
and only one of those outcomes results in both flips being
heads.
Problem Setup
Problem: In the card game bridge, 52 cards are dealt equally to 4
players: East, West, North, and South. Given that North and
South together have a total of 8 spades, what is the probability
that East has exactly 3 of the remaining 5 spades?
Solution Steps:
▶ North and South hold 8 spades out of their 26 cards.
▶ Therefore, there are 5 spades remaining among the 26 cards
held by East and West.
▶ We want to find the probability that East has exactly 3 of
these 5 spades in their hand of 13 cards.
Calculation of Conditional Probability
Using Combinatorial Analysis: We can compute the probability
as follows:
5
21
3 · 10
P(East has 3 spades) = 26
13
Where:
▶ 53 : ways to choose 3 spades from the 5 available.
▶ 21
10 : ways to choose 10 non-spades from the remaining 21
cards.
▶ 26
13 : total ways to choose 13 cards from the 26 remaining
cards.
Calculation:
5 21
3 · 10 10 · 352716
26
= ≈ 0.339
13
10400600
Thus, the probability that East has exactly 3 of the remaining 5
spades is approximately 0.339.
Problem Setup
Scenario: Celine is undecided between taking a French course and
a chemistry course. - Probability of receiving an A in French:
P(A|F ) = 12 - Probability of receiving an A in Chemistry:
P(A|C ) = 32
Decision Method: Celine decides to choose based on the flip of a
fair coin: - Probability of choosing Chemistry: P(C ) = 12 -
Probability of choosing French: P(F ) = 12
Calculation of Probability
Objective: Find the probability that Celine gets an A in
Chemistry: P(CA).
Using the formula:
P(CA) = P(C ) · P(A|C )
Substituting values:
1 2 1
P(CA) = · =
2 3 3
Conclusion: The probability that Celine gets an A in Chemistry is
1
3.
Problem: An urn contains 8 red balls and 4 white balls. We draw
2 balls from the urn without replacement. What is the probability
that both balls drawn are red?
Let R1 and R2 denote the events that the first and second balls
drawn are red, respectively.
▶ The total number of balls in the urn is:
8 (red) + 4 (white) = 12 balls
▶ The probability of drawing a red ball on the first draw is:
8 2
P(R1 ) = =
12 3
▶ After the first red ball is drawn, there are now 7 red balls left
and a total of 11 balls remaining. Thus, the probability of
drawing a red ball on the second draw, given that the first ball
was red, is:
7
P(R2 |R1 ) =
11
Now, the probability that both balls drawn are red is given by:
P(R1 ∩ R2 ) = P(R1 ) · P(R2 |R1 )
Substituting the values:
2 7 14
P(R1 ∩ R2 ) = · =
3 11 33
Conclusion: The probability that both balls drawn are red is:
14
33
Problem Statement and Events
An ordinary deck of 52 playing cards is randomly divided into 4
piles of 13 cards each. What is the probability that each pile has
exactly 1 ace?
Define Events:
▶ E1 : Ace of spades is in any one of the piles.
▶ E2 : Ace of spades and ace of hearts are in different piles.
▶ E3 : Aces of spades, hearts, and diamonds are in different piles.
▶ E4 : All 4 aces are in different piles.
Probability Calculation
Using the multiplication rule:
P(E1 E2 E3 E4 ) = P(E1 ) · P(E2 |E1 ) · P(E3 |E1 E2 ) · P(E4 |E1 E2 E3 )
▶ P(E1 ) = 1
▶ P(E2 |E1 ) = 39
51
26
▶ P(E3 |E1 E2 ) = 50
▶ P(E4 |E1 E2 E3 ) = 13
49
Final Probability:
39 · 26 · 13
P(E1 E2 E3 E4 ) = ≈ 0.105
51 · 50 · 49
Therefore, the probability is approximately 10.5%.