Poisson Distribution Questions
1. Let Y denote a random variable that has a Poisson distribution with mean λ = 2. Find:
◦ a. P(Y = 4).
◦ b. P(Y ≥ 4).
◦ c. P(Y < 4).
◦ d. P(Y ≥ 4 | Y ≥ 2).
2. Customers arrive at a checkout counter in a department store according to a Poisson distribution
at an average of seven per hour. During a given hour, what are the probabilities that:
◦ a. no more than three customers arrive?
◦ b. at least two customers arrive?
◦ c. exactly five customers arrive?
3. The random variable Y has a Poisson distribution and is such that P(Y=0) = P(Y=1). What is
P(Y=2)?
4. Approximately 4% of silicon wafers produced by a manufacturer have fewer than two large
flaws. If Y, the number of flaws per wafer, has a Poisson distribution, what proportion of the
wafers have more than five large flaws?
5. Refer to Exercise 2. If it takes approximately ten minutes to serve each customer, find the mean
and variance of the total service time for customers arriving during a 1-hour period. (Assume
that a sufficient number of servers are available so that no customer must wait for service.) Is it
likely that the total service time will exceed 2.5 hours?
6. Refer to Exercise 2. Assume that arrivals occur according to a Poisson process with an average
of seven per hour. What is the probability that exactly two customers arrive in the two-hour
period of time between:
◦ a. 2:00 P.M. and 4:00 P.M. (one continuous two-hour period)?
◦ b. 1:00 P.M. and 2:00 P.M. or between 3:00 P.M. and 4:00 P.M. (two separate one-hour
periods that total two hours)?
7. The number of typing errors made by a typist has a Poisson distribution with an average of four
errors per page. If more than four errors appear on a given page, the typist must retype the
whole page. What is the probability that a randomly selected page does not need to be retyped?
8. Cars arrive at a toll booth according to a Poisson process with mean 80 cars per hour. If the
attendant makes a one-minute phone call, what is the probability that at least 1 car arrives
during the call?
9. Refer to Exercise 8. How long can the attendant's phone call last if the probability is at least .4
that no cars arrive during the call?
10. A parking lot has two entrances. Cars arrive at entrance I according to a Poisson distribution at
an average of three per hour and at entrance II according to a Poisson distribution at an average
of four per hour. What is the probability that a total of three cars will arrive at the parking lot in
a given hour? (Assume that the numbers of cars arriving at the two entrances are independent.)
11. The number of knots in a particular type of wood has a Poisson distribution with an average of
1.5 knots in 10 cubic feet of the wood. Find the probability that a 10-cubic-foot block of the
wood has at most 1 knot.
12. The mean number of automobiles entering a mountain tunnel per two-minute period is one. An
excessive number of cars entering the tunnel during a brief period of time produces a hazardous
situation. Find the probability that the number of autos entering the tunnel during a two-minute
period exceeds three. Does the Poisson model seem reasonable for this problem?
13. Assume that the tunnel in Exercise 12 is observed during ten two-minute intervals, thus giving
ten independent observations Y1, Y2, ..., Y10 on the Poisson random variable. Find the
probability that Y > 3 during at least one of the ten two-minute intervals.
14. Consider a binomial experiment for n = 20, p = .05. Use Table 1, Appendix 3, to calculate the
binomial probabilities for Y = 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4. Calculate the same probabilities by using the
Poisson approximation with λ = np. Compare.
15. A salesperson has found that the probability of a sale on a single contact is approximately .03. If
the salesperson contacts 100 prospects, what is the approximate probability of making at least
one sale?
16. Increased research and discussion have focused on the number of illnesses involving the
organism *Escherichia coli* (10257:H7), which causes a breakdown of red blood cells and
intestinal hemorrhages in its victims. Sporadic outbreaks of *E. coli* have occurred in Colorado
at a rate of 2.4 per 100,000 for a period of two years.
◦ a. If this rate has not changed and if 100,000 cases from Colorado are reviewed for this
year, what is the probability that at least 5 cases of *E. coli* will be observed?
◦ b. If 100,000 cases from Colorado are reviewed for this year and the number of *E. coli*
cases exceeded 5, would you suspect that the state's mean *E. coli* rate has changed?
Explain.
17. The probability that a mouse inoculated with a serum will contract a certain disease is .2. Using
the Poisson approximation, find the probability that at most 3 of 30 inoculated mice will
contract the disease.
18. Let Y have a Poisson distribution with mean λ. Find E[Y(Y - 1)] and then use this to show that
V(Y) = λ.
19. In the daily production of a certain kind of rope, the number of defects per foot Y is assumed to
have a Poisson distribution with mean λ = 2. The profit per foot when the rope is sold is given
by X = 50 - 2Y - Y2. Find the expected profit per foot.
20. A store owner has overstocked a certain item and decides to use the following promotion to
decrease the supply. The item has a marked price of $100. For each customer purchasing the
item during a particular day, the owner will reduce the price by a factor of one-half. Thus, the
first customer will pay $50 for the item, the second will pay $25, and so on. Suppose that the
number of customers who purchase the item during the day has a Poisson distribution with
mean 2. Find the expected cost of the item at the end of the day. [Hint: The cost at the end of the
day is 100(1/2)Y, where Y is the number of customers who have purchased the item.]
21. A food manufacturer uses an extruder (a machine that produces bite-size cookies and snack
food) that yields revenue for the firm at a rate of $200 per hour when in operation. However, the
extruder breaks down an average of two times every day it operates. If Y denotes the number of
breakdowns per day, the daily revenue generated by the machine is R = 1600 - 50Y2. Find the
expected daily revenue for the extruder.
22. Let p(y) denote the probability function associated with a Poisson random variable with mean λ.
◦ a. Show that the ratio of successive probabilities satisfies p(y)/p(y-1) = λ/y, for y = 1, 2,
....
◦ b. For which values of y is p(y) > p(y-1)?
23. Notice that the result in part (a) implies that Poisson probabilities increase for awhile as y
increases and decrease thereafter. Show that p(y) is maximized when y = the greatest integer less
than or equal to λ.
24. Refer to Exercise 22(c). If the number of phone calls to the fire department, Y, in a day has a
Poisson distribution with mean 5.3, what is the most likely number of phone calls to the fire
department on any day?
25. Refer to Exercises 22(c) and 23. If the number of phone calls to the fire department, Y, in a day
has a Poisson distribution with mean 6, show that P(5) = P(6) so that 5 and 6 are the two most
likely values for Y.