Risk in Product Design
Risk in Product Design
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Citation: Oehmen, Josef et al. “Risk Management in Product Design: Current State, Conceptual
Model and Future Research.” ASME, 2010. 1033–1041.
As Published: [Link]
Version: Author's final manuscript: final author's manuscript post peer review, without
publisher's formatting or copy editing
Mohammad Ben-Daya
Systems Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
Email: bendaya@[Link]
Warren Seering
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139
Email: seering@[Link]
Muhammad Al-Salamah
Systems Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
Email: salamah@[Link]
Published as: Oehmen, J., Ben-Daya, M., Seering, W., Al-Salamah, M.: Risk Management in Product Design: Current State, Conceptual
Model and Future Research. DETC2010-28539. Proceedings of the ASME 2010 International Design Engineering Technical Conference
& Computers and Information in Engineering Conference IDETC/CIE 2010. August 15-18, 2010, Montreal, Canada. ISBN 978-0-7918-
3881-5
ABSTRACT
Risk management is an important element of product design. It helps to minimize the project- and product-related risks such as
project budget and schedule overrun, or missing product cost and quality targets. Risk management is especially important for
complex, international product design projects that involve a high degree of novel technology.
This paper reviews the literature on risk management in product design. It examines the newly released international standard
ISO 31000 “Risk management – Principles and guidelines” and explores its applicability to product design. The new standard consists
of the seven process steps communication and consultation; establishing the context; risk identification; risk analysis; risk evaluation;
risk treatment; and monitoring and review.
A literature review reveals, among other findings, that the general ISO 31000 process model seems applicable to risk
management in product design; the literature addresses different process elements to varying degrees, but none fully according to
ISO recommendations; and that the integration of product design risk management with risk management of other disciplines, or
between project and portfolio level in product design, is not well developed.
INTRODUCTION
Product design (PD) is a complex task, as it integrates technical challenges and the preferences of a multitude of stakeholders
from both inside and outside the organization to devise one overall optimal set of specifications. The task is becoming more
challenging as companies focus on their core competencies. This leads to a lower degree of internal value creation and increases the
importance of partners along the value chain, be it in marketing, the outsourcing of parts of the design or manufacturing, the supply
chain management, distribution, service or recycling of a product. The fact that most companies and partners in a value chain act
globally presents additional complexity, as the communication and coordination now also has to bridge significant geographic and
cultural distance.
For this paper, we follow the definition of risk as the “effect of uncertainty on objectives” [1]. Assuming that the overall
objectives of PD are to achieve high product quality, low product cost, short development time and low development cost (see e.g.
[2]), these objectives also constitute the main categories of PD risks. Possible sources of uncertainty, i.e. risk causes, are the company
itself with its processes, people and technological resources; its partners and supply chain, such as suppliers, customers and service
providers; as well as external factors, such as competitors and political, social or environmental forces. There are numerous examples
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of risks in PD that led to varying degrees of failure of the PD process and the product in the market. One of the most recent examples
of PD project cost and schedule overrun is the case of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner [3], or the large scale cost overrun of 30-40% in
major PD projects of the Department of Defense [4]. Products from the consumer industry, for example Apple’s Newton MessagePad
introduced in 1993, often suffer from risks related to product quality and performance, and the associated product price [5].
Risk management (RM) in PD is an important tool to minimize these risks of a PD projects and thus increase their likelihood of
success and create value. RM contributes directly to project and product success by creating transparency regarding the risk
situation, thus focusing management attention and enabling them to minimize PD risks. It allows for considering both risk and return
in PD projects and contributes by increasing the quality of the PD processes, one of the main determinants of product success [6].
Additionally, there is an increasing pressure on organizations to execute risk management processes as part of corporate governance,
risk management and compliance (GRC) activities of controlling and internal audit departments [7]. This makes it even more
important for engineers and engineering managers to define and implement a value-creating PD risk management process, before
the discussion is dominated by corporate functions that lack a detailed understanding of engineering processes.
A review of the literature by the authors has shown that a multitude of risk management approaches in PD exist. But there
seems to be no common process framework that would provide the necessary context and structure in which to discuss the different
pieces of the body of knowledge presented in the literature.
Very recently, the International Standard ISO 31000 “Risk Management – Principles and guidelines” and its accompanying
documents have been published [1, 8, 9]. Its process model is based on the national standard AS/NZS 4360 [10]. It describes a
generic process for risk management “to ensure that risk is managed effectively, efficiently and coherently across an organization”
[8], but also addresses the management system that surrounds the risk management process. One claim of the generic ISO risk
management process is that it is applicable to organizations and functions within organizations within different sectors. Therefore,
this paper attempts to structure the existing PD risk management literature according to the newly proposed ISO process.
The goals of this paper are
to review and summarize the literature in PD risk management;
to explore whether the generic ISO risk management process is a sensible unifying framework and conceptual model to
review and present the literature on risk management in PD; and
to identify gaps in the current literature as possible future research opportunities.
The remainder of the paper consists of a brief description of the research method, an overview of risk management process
frameworks for PD, especially the ISO 31000 framework, a discussion of the PD risk management literature by process step, a
summary of the findings, and the conclusion.
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The discussion of the literature is divided into two main sections: Literature addressing the risk management process as such,
and the second, larger category, literature addressing the different elements of the risk management process, discussed step by step
along the risk management process.
2. Establishing the
context
Risk assessment
1. Communication and consultation
3. Risk
4. Risk analysis
5. Risk evaluation
6. Risk treatment
The approach of the ISO 31000 is to provide a generic risk management framework that is applicable to different industries and
different problem scopes. A very similar process model, based on the AS/NZS 4360 risk management standard has been utilized
before to give an overview of specific risk management methods for concurrent engineering PD projects [14] (also see [9] for a list of
specific methods and their applicability in the different process steps). The process model consists of the following 7 main steps
(descriptions quoted or paraphrased from [8], also see Fig. 1).
1. Communication and consultation: Communication and consultation with external and internal stakeholders should take place
during all stages of the risk management process. It should facilitate the exchange of necessary information and coordination of
stakeholders and their perceptions throughout the entire risk management process. More specifically, the communication and
consultation between the stakeholders for the different process steps should focus on: objectives, scope and criteria (establishing the
context); risk sources, consequences and related events (identification); analysis method and data generation (analysis); judgment of
evaluation criteria (evaluation); and appropriate treatment measures (treatment).
2. Establishing the context: By establishing the context, the objectives, scope and criteria for the remaining risk management
process are defined. This addresses both company external and as well as internal factors, the role of the risk management process
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within the company, as well as the basic criteria used to evaluate risks. The main input provided to the risk identification process is
the scoping of risk causes and impacts.
3. Risk identification: This step consists of identifying sources of risk, areas of impact, and events with their causes and
consequences. The aim of the step is to create a comprehensive list of risks based on events that have a significant influence on the
achievements of the objectives. This commented list of identified risks is the main output for the following risk analysis step.
4. Risk analysis: The analysis of the risks identified previously develops a deeper understanding of these risks. It generates the
necessary information for a correct evaluation of the risk (both regarding the appropriate method for evaluation, as well as the
necessary data), and for the development of effective treatments. Both evaluation method and the collected data constitute the
input
5. Risk evaluation: During risk evaluation, based on the information gathered in the risk analysis, decisions are made regarding
which risks need treatment and the priority of the risk treatments. It uses the criteria that were defined during the establishment of
the context. The prioritized list of risks is then transferred to the risk treatment step.
Steps 3-5 (risk identification, analysis and evaluation) constitute the risk assessment process.
6. Risk treatment: For every risk that needs treatment, one or more options to deal with the risk are selected and implemented.
It involves assessing different treatments, assessing the resulting residual risk, and deciding whether additional risk treatments are
necessary to achieve the intended risk reduction. The decided treatments, their expected benefits, and the evaluated risks, are
passed on to the monitoring and review process.
7. Monitoring and review: The identified risks, including the identification of emerging risks, are monitored and reviewed, so
changes to their evaluation and treatment can be made if necessary. The execution of the risk management process is monitored and
reviewed as well to enable process control and improvements. Therefore, the monitoring and review process interacts with all other
processes, regarding the process design, execution, as well as the current risk situation.
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uncertainty on objectives), such as PD project schedule and cost, and product performance and cost. To develop the criteria for risk
evaluation, these goals should be broken down into measurable units, as well as their relation to overall corporate goals (e.g. return
on investment or NPV of the PD project) described. The scoping also has to define which areas of risk causes should be considered,
e.g. from within the company itself, from the network of partner companies along the value chain, or from surrounding external
factors such as political, economic or competitive influences. Another important element to define the scope is to provide a clear
definition of the system, product or product family that the risk management is applied to, as well as the elements of the PD project
or process that are to be analyzed in detail. Also, the question on how to integrate the risk management process with the PD process,
so that it becomes a natural part of it and not an artificial annex, has to be answered.
Concrete techniques to understand the context and delimit the scope of the risk management process that are recommended in
the literature include project network diagrams (or Gantt charts), design structure matrices, and functional or object-oriented
modeling of the task [14]. Other authors address this question implicitly as part of the risk identification process, e.g. through
detailed definition of the project and its “significant features” [18].
In most cases, the process of establishing the context is not discussed by itself, but rather treated as a boundary condition set by
the scope of the reported research (i.e. it was addressed at some stage of the design of the research, but not as part of the risk
management process itself).
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present value of the PD project) can be computed using Monte Carlo simulations [51, 56]. A somewhat different approach is the
analysis of the risk through readiness scales, such as technology, manufacturing or service readiness of a product [58].
The review of the literature reveals that research mostly focuses on quantitative methods, although also a certain number of
qualitative approaches are present. Risk consequences are discussed in terms of cost, schedule, performance or overall utility, rarely
in high-level terms such as net present value or return on investment. With the exception of [18], no additional analysis of cause and
effect relationships beyond the initial risk identification is mentioned. The review of the literature makes it also obvious that many
different interpretations of the term risk in PD exist and that there is no agreement on how to quantify this risk, or in which
dimensions.
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The impact of PD on supply chain risk was addressed through a case study in the clothing industry in [29]. In particular, the case
examines the role that design can play in managing risk in the clothing and textile industries in an increasingly global supply chain.
The Boeing 787 Dreamliner development project uses novel supply chain concepts intended to significantly reduce development
cost and time. However, the series of delays in plane delivery to customers motivated a case study [3] that looks at the challenges
faced by Boeing and concludes with some lessons learned that can benefit other companies when designing their supply chain for
new product development.
A number of other publications use examples from the aeronautics, defense and space industry to illustrate the application of
their methods: [44] describes changes to the PD process at Rocketdyne due to risk management considerations; [59] uses a real
options based project valuation approach at Boeing, [52, 54] illustrate their risk quantification method with the example of an
unmanned combat air vehicle; [51] performs value-at-risk analyses for satellite fleet design at Lockheed Martin; and [26] discusses
the NASA process to manage technical risks.
Examples from the automotive industry for the use of FMEA during PD are presented in [45]. The development of a hydrogen-
enhanced automotive combustion engine is the example in [57].
Other application examples include the application of qualitative real options at the National Ignition Facility [48] and a
description of the PD risk management process of Intel [24].
CONCLUSION
In this paper, we presented a review of the current literature on risk management in product design (PD). As a framework for the
review, the ISO 31000 risk management process elements were used.
The review showed that the ISO process seems applicable to risk management in PD. At the same time, numerous shortcomings
of the current risk management process implementation in PD compared to the ISO 31000 recommendations were discovered. All
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those gaps present opportunities for future research topics. The review also showed that comprehensive case studies on the
application of risk management in product development are missing.
This paper is limited in several important aspects: First, as discussed in the introduction, this is not a complete review of the PD
risk management literature, although every effort has been made to include the papers relevant for the questions discussed here
from our more extensive collection. Also, only the part of the ISO 31000 addressing the risk management process as such was
discussed, both the risk management principles as well as the implementation framework remain excluded from this paper. The
current PD literature could have been structured in many different ways, such as along risk sources or effects, along PD process
stages or general PD process models.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors would like to thank the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM) in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, for
funding the research reported in this paper through the Center for Clean Water and Clean Energy at MIT and KFUPM, as well as the
Lean Advancement Initiative at MIT for funding support.
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