PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

Complete Study Notes

Topics Covered:

Probability · Random Variables · PMF / PDF / CDF

Expectation · Variance · Binomial · Poisson

Geometric · Negative Binomial · Hyper Geometric · Multinomial

100 MCQs · Long Questions with Solutions

 TOPIC MAP — PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

1. PROBABILITY BASICS

Probability

Experiment

Outcome

Sample Space

Event

2. RANDOM VARIABLE

Discrete R.V.

Continuous R.V.

Distribution Function

3. FUNCTIONS

PMF — Probability Mass Function

PDF — Probability Density Function

CDF — Cumulative Distribution Function

4. EXPECTATION & SPREAD

Mathematical Expectation E(X)

Variance Var(X)

Standard Deviation SD(X)

5. DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS

Binomial

Poisson

Geometric

Negative Binomial

Hyper Geometric

Multinomial
 CHAPTER 1 — PROBABILITY BASICS

1.1 Probability

Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur,

Definition
expressed as a value between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain).

P(A) = Number of Favourable Outcomes / Total Possible Outcomes

Example: Toss a fair coin — P(Head) = 1/2 = 0.5

‫ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﮐﺴﯽ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﮯ ﮐﮯ ﮨﻮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻥ ﮐﻮ ﻇﺎﮨﺮ ﮐﺮﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔ ﺻﻔﺮ ﮐﺎ ﻣﻄﻠﺐ ﻧﺎﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﺍﻭﺭ ﺍﯾﮏ ﮐﺎ ﻣﻄﻠﺐ ﯾﻘﯿﻨﯽ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

1.2 Experiment

An experiment is any action or process performed under controlled

Definition
conditions that produces a set of observable outcomes.

Example: Rolling a dice, tossing a coin, drawing a card.

‫ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﮧ ﻭﮦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﮨﮯ ﺟﺲ ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﻮﺋﯽ ﮐﺎﻡ ﮐﯿﺎ ﺟﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ ﺍﻭﺭ ﺍﺱ ﮐﺎ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﮧ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﮨﻮ ﺳﮑﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

1.3 Outcome

An outcome is a single possible result obtained when an experiment is

Definition
performed.

Example: Tossing a coin outcomes are Head (H) or Tail (T).

‫ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﮧ ﻭﮦ ﻣﺨﺼﻮﺹ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﮨﯿﮟ ﺟﻮ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﮯ ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺳﺎﻣﻨﮯ ﺁﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

1.4 Sample Space

The sample space S is the set of ALL possible outcomes of a random

Definition
experiment.

Example: Dice roll S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

‫ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﮧ ﻓﻀﺎﺀ ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﻣﻤﮑﻨﮧ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﮐﺎ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﮧ ﮨﻮﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

1.5 Event

An event is any subset of the sample space — a specific outcome or group

Definition
of outcomes of interest.

Example: Even numbers on a dice A = {2, 4, 6}

‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‪ :‬ﻭﺍﻗﻌﮧ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﮧ ﻓﻀﺎﺀ ﮐﺎ ﻭﮦ ﺣﺼﮧ ﮨﮯ ﺟﺲ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﮧ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﮨﻮﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬
 CHAPTER 2 — CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

2.1 Conditional Probability

Conditional probability is the probability of event A occurring given that

Definition
event B has already occurred.

P(A | B) = P(A B) / P(B)

Example: Roll a dice. A = even = {2,4,6}, B = >3 = {4,5,6}

A B = {4, 6} P(A|B) = (2/6) / (3/6) = 2/3

‫ ﻣﺸﺮﻭﻁ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﯿﮟ ﮐﺴﯽ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﮯ ﮐﺎ ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻥ ﺩﻭﺳﺮﮮ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﮐﮯ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻧﮑﺎﻻ ﺟﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

2.2 Independent Events

Two events are independent when the occurrence of one does NOT affect
Definition
the probability of the other.

P(A | B) = P(A) and P(A B) = P(A) · P(B)

Example: Tossing a coin and rolling a dice are independent.

‫ ﺁﺯﺍﺩ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﮦ ﮨﻮﺗﮯ ﮨﯿﮟ ﺟﻦ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺍﯾﮏ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﮯ ﮐﺎ ﺩﻭﺳﺮﮮ ﭘﺮ ﮐﻮﺋﯽ ﺍﺛﺮ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮨﻮﺗﺎ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

2.3 Dependent Events

Two events are dependent when the occurrence of one event changes the
Definition
probability of the other.

Example: Drawing two cards without replacement — first draw affects the second.

‫ ﻣﻨﺤﺼﺮ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺍﯾﮏ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﮧ ﺩﻭﺳﺮﮮ ﮐﮯ ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻥ ﮐﻮ ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﮐﺮ ﺩﯾﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬
 CHAPTER 3 — RANDOM VARIABLE

3.1 Random Variable

A random variable is a variable (denoted X) that assigns a numerical value

Definition
to each outcome of a random experiment.

Example: Toss a coin X = 1 (Head), X = 0 (Tail)

‫ ﺗﺼﺎﺩﻓﯽ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﮐﻮ ﻋﺪﺩﯼ ﺷﮑﻞ ﺩﯾﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ ﺗﺎﮐﮧ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﯽ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺁﺳﺎﻥ ﮨﻮ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

3.2 Discrete Random Variable

A discrete random variable can take only a finite set of distinct values.
Definition

Example: Number of heads in 3 tosses: X {0, 1, 2, 3}

‫ ﺍﻧﻔﺮﺍﺩﯼ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻭﮦ ﮨﻮﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ ﺟﺲ ﮐﯽ ﻗﺪﺭﯾﮟ ﮔﻨﯽ ﺟﺎ ﺳﮑﺘﯽ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

3.3 Continuous Random Variable

A continuous random variable can take any value within a given interval,
Definition
including all decimal and fractional values.

Example: Height of a person: 170.2 cm, 170.25 cm, 170.256 cm … (infinite values)

‫ ﺟﯿﺴﮯ ﻗﺪ ﺍﻭﺭ ﻭﺯﻥ۔‬،‫ ﻣﺴﻠﺴﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺍﯾﮏ ﺣﺪ ﮐﮯ ﺍﻧﺪﺭ ﻻﻣﺤﺪﻭﺩ ﻗﺪﺭﯾﮟ ﻟﮯ ﺳﮑﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

3.4 Distribution Function

A distribution function shows how probability is distributed across all

Definition possible values of a random variable; the sum of all probabilities must equal
1.

X (Dice) P(X)

1 1/6

2 1/6

3 1/6

4 1/6

5 1/6

6 1/6

‫ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻤﯽ ﻓﻌﻞ ﺑﺘﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﮨﺮ ﻗﺪﺭ ﮐﮯ ﺳﺎﺗﮫ ﮐﺘﻨﯽ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﮧ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

 CHAPTER 4 — PMF · PDF · CDF

4.1 Probability Mass Function (PMF)

PMF gives the exact probability for each value of a DISCRETE random
Definition
variable. Condition: each P(X=x) ≥ 0 and P(X=x) = 1.

P(X = x) where P(X=x) = 1

X (Heads in 2 tosses) P(X)

0 1/4

1 1/2

2 1/4

‫ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﮐﻤﯿﺘﯽ ﻓﻌﻞ ﺍﻧﻔﺮﺍﺩﯼ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﮐﯽ ﮨﺮ ﻗﺪﺭ ﮐﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺑﺘﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

4.2 Probability Density Function (PDF)

PDF describes the probability distribution of a CONTINUOUS random variable.

Definition
Probability is the area under the curve over an interval.

P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = ∫[a to b] f(x) dx and ∫[-∞ to ∞] f(x) dx = 1

Note: P(X = exact value) = 0 for continuous variable.

‫ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﮐﺜﺎﻓﺘﯽ ﻓﻌﻞ ﻣﺴﻠﺴﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﮨﻮﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻧﯿﭽﮯ ﮐﮯ ﺭﻗﺒﮯ ﺳﮯ ﻧﮑﺎﻻ ﺟﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

4.3 Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

CDF gives the probability that X is less than or equal to a value x, i.e., F(x) =
Definition
P(X ≤ x).

F(x) = P(X ≤ x) = P(X=k) for k ≤ x [Discrete]

x F(x) = P(X ≤ x)

0 1/4 = 0.25

1 3/4 = 0.75

2 1.00

Properties: 0 ≤ F(x) ≤ 1 · F(x) never decreases · F(∞) = 1 · F(-∞) = 0

‫ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﯽ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻤﯽ ﻓﻌﻞ ﺑﺘﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﮐﺴﯽ ﻗﺪﺭ ﺗﮏ ﮐﻞ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﮐﺘﻨﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

 CHAPTER 5 — EXPECTATION · VARIANCE · SD

5.1 Mathematical Expectation E(X)

Expected value is the long-run weighted average of a random variable —

Definition
each value multiplied by its probability, then summed.

E(X) = [ x · P(x) ] [Discrete] | E(X) = ∫ x · f(x) dx [Continuous]

Example — Dice:
E(X) = (1+2+3+4+5+6)/6 = 21/6 = 3.5

Properties: E(c) = c · E(aX) = a·E(X) · E(X+Y) = E(X)+E(Y)

‫ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ ﻭﮦ ﺍﻭﺳﻂ ﻗﺪﺭ ﮨﮯ ﺟﻮ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﮯ ﮐﯽ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺗﮑﺮﺍﺭ ﭘﺮ ﻣﻠﺘﯽ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

5.2 Variance Var(X)

Variance measures how spread out the values of a random variable are
Definition
from the mean; a higher variance means more spread.

Var(X) = E(X²) − [E(X)]² [Shortcut — use in exam]

Example — Dice: E(X²) = (1+4+9+16+25+36)/6 = 91/6 ≈ 15.17

Var(X) = 15.17 − (3.5)² = 15.17 − 12.25 = 2.92

Properties: Var(c) = 0 · Var(aX) = a²·Var(X)

‫ ﺗﻐﺎﺋﺮ ﺑﺘﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﻗﺪﺭﯾﮟ ﻭﺳﻂ ﺳﮯ ﮐﺘﻨﯽ ﺩﻭﺭ ﮨﯿﮟ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬

5.3 Standard Deviation SD(X)

Standard deviation is the square root of variance; it expresses spread in the

Definition
same units as the original data.

SD(X) = √Var(X)

Example: Var(X) = 2.92 SD(X) = √2.92 ≈ 1.71

‫ ﻣﻌﯿﺎﺭﯼ ﺍﻧﺤﺮﺍﻑ ﺗﻐﺎﺋﺮ ﮐﺎ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﺟﺬﺭ ﮨﮯ ﺍﻭﺭ ﺍﺻﻞ ﺍﮐﺎﺋﯽ ﻣﯿﮟ ﭘﮭﯿﻼﺅ ﮐﻮ ﻇﺎﮨﺮ ﮐﺮﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬
 CHAPTER 6 — BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

6.1 Definition & Conditions

Binomial distribution gives the probability of exactly x successes in n

Definition independent trials where each trial has exactly two outcomes and
probability of success p is constant.

Conditions: (1) Fixed n trials (2) Independent trials (3) Two outcomes only (4) Constant p

P(X = x) = C(n,x) · p^x · (1−p)^(n−x)

Mean = n·p Variance = n·p·(1−p)

Example: Coin tossed 5 times, find P(exactly 2 heads):

n=5, x=2, p=1/2 P(X=2) = C(5,2)·(1/2)²·(1/2)³ = 10·(1/32) = 10/32 = 0.3125

‫ﺩﻭ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﯽ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﺍﺱ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﮨﻮﺗﯽ ﮨﮯ ﺟﺐ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﮧ ﻣﻘﺮﺭﮦ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺩﮨﺮﺍﯾﺎ ﺟﺎﺋﮯ ﺍﻭﺭ ﮨﺮ ﺑﺎﺭ ﺻﺮﻑ ﺩﻭ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﮨﻮﮞ۔‬
:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬
 CHAPTER 7 — POISSON DISTRIBUTION

7.1 Definition & Formula

Poisson distribution gives the probability of a given number of events

Definition occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, when events occur
independently at a constant average rate .

P(X = x) = ( e^(−) · ^x ) / x! where e ≈ 2.718

Mean = Variance = (Special Property!)

Use when: counting events in fixed time/space · events are random · average rate given
Example: Average 2 customers/min (=2). P(exactly 3) = e²·2³/3! = (0.135·8)/6 ≈ 0.18

‫ ﭘﻮﺍﺳﻮﮞ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﻣﻘﺮﺭﮦ ﻭﻗﺖ ﯾﺎ ﺟﮕﮧ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﮐﯽ ﺗﻌﺪﺍﺩ ﮐﮯ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﮨﻮﺗﯽ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬
 CHAPTER 8 — GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

8.1 Definition & Formula

Geometric distribution gives the probability that the FIRST success occurs on
Definition exactly the x-th trial in repeated independent trials with constant probability
of success p.

P(X = x) = (1−p)^(x−1) · p

Mean = 1/p Variance = (1−p) / p²

Example: Coin tossed until first Head. P(first Head on 3rd toss):
p=1/2, x=3 P(X=3) = (1/2)² · (1/2) = 1/8

‫ ﮨﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺩﯾﮑﮭﺎ ﺟﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ ﮐﮧ ﭘﮩﻠﯽ ﮐﺎﻣﯿﺎﺑﯽ ﮐﺲ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﮯ ﭘﺮ ﻣﻠﺘﯽ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬
 CHAPTER 9 — NEGATIVE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

9.1 Definition & Formula

Negative binomial distribution gives the probability that the r-th success
Definition
occurs on the x-th trial in independent repeated trials with constant p.

P(X = x) = C(x−1, r−1) · p^r · (1−p)^(x−r)

Mean = r/p Variance = r(1−p) / p²

Difference from Geometric: Geometric = 1st success; Negative Binomial = r-th success
Example: 2nd Head on 4th toss: r=2,x=4,p=1/2 C(3,1)·(1/2)²·(1/2)² = 3/16

‫ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺩﻭ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﯽ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﻣﯿﮟ ﻣﻘﺮﺭﮦ ﮐﺎﻣﯿﺎﺑﯿﺎﮞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﮐﺮﻧﮯ ﮐﮯ ﻟﯿﮯ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﯼ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺎﺕ ﮐﺎ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻧﮑﺎﻻ ﺟﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬
 CHAPTER 10 — HYPER GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

10.1 Definition & Formula

Hyper geometric distribution gives the probability of x successes in n draws

Definition taken WITHOUT replacement from a finite population of N items containing K
successes.

P(X = x) = [ C(K,x) · C(N−K, n−x) ] / C(N, n)

Mean = n · (K/N)

Feature Binomial Hyper Geometric

Replacement With replacement Without replacement

Probability Constant Changes each draw

Population Large/infinite Finite

Example: Box: 5 red + 5 blue = 10 balls. Draw 3 without replacement. P(2 red):
C(5,2)·C(5,1)/C(10,3) = (10·5)/120 = 50/120 = 5/12

‫ ﮨﺎﺋﭙﺮ ﮨﻨﺪﺳﯽ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺑﻐﯿﺮ ﻭﺍﭘﺴﯽ ﮐﮯ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﮧ ﻟﯿﺎ ﺟﺎﺗﺎ ﮨﮯ ﺍﻭﺭ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﮨﺮ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﮯ ﭘﺮ ﺑﺪﻟﺘﺎ ﮨﮯ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬
 CHAPTER 11 — MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

11.1 Definition & Formula

Multinomial distribution is the generalisation of binomial for experiments

Definition
with MORE than two possible outcomes per trial.

P = n! / (x1! · x2! · ... · xk!) · p1^x1 · p2^x2 · ... · pk^xk

Example: Dice rolled 3 times. P(1 appears once, 2 appears once, 3 appears once):
n=3, x1=x2=x3=1, p=1/6 each P = 3!/(1!1!1!)·(1/6)³ = 6/216 = 1/36

‫ ﮐﺜﯿﺮ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﯽ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﺍﺱ ﻭﻗﺖ ﺍﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎﻝ ﮨﻮﺗﯽ ﮨﮯ ﺟﺐ ﮨﺮ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﮯ ﻣﯿﮟ ﺩﻭ ﺳﮯ ﺯﯾﺎﺩﮦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﻤﮑﻦ ﮨﻮﮞ۔‬:‫ﻭﺿﺎﺣﺖ‬
 100 MCQs — PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

Q1. Probability value always lies between Q2. If P(A) = 0, the event A is
(A) −1 and 1 (B) 0 and 1 (C) 0 and 100 (D) −∞ (A) Certain (B) Likely (C) Impossible (D)
and ∞ Complementary
Answer: B Answer: C
Q3. The set of all possible outcomes is called Q4. A fair coin is tossed. P(Tail) =
(A) Event (B) Sample space (C) Outcome (D) (A) 1 (B) 0 (C) 1/2 (D) 2
Experiment
Answer: B Answer: C
Q5. An event that is a subset of sample Q6. If P(A) = 0.7 then P(A') =
space is called
(A) Experiment (B) Outcome (C) Event (D) (A) 0.7 (B) 1.7 (C) 0.3 (D) −0.3
Trial
Answer: C Answer: C
Q7. Two mutually exclusive events have P(A Q8. For any event A, P(A) + P(A') =
B) =
(A) 1 (B) P(A)+P(B) (C) 0 (D) 0.5 (A) 0 (B) 2 (C) 0.5 (D) 1
Answer: C Answer: D
Q9. Sample space of two coin tosses has Q10. If all outcomes are equally likely, P(A) =
how many outcomes?
(A) 2 (B) 3 (C) 4 (D) 8 (A) n(S)/n(A) (B) n(A)/n(S) (C) 1 (D) 0
Answer: C Answer: B
Q11. P(A|B) is defined as Q12. For independent events, P(A|B) =
(A) P(A)·P(B) (B) P(AB)/P(A) (C) P(AB)/P(B) (A) P(B) (B) P(A)·P(B) (C) P(A) (D) 1
(D) P(A)+P(B)
Answer: C Answer: C
Q13. If P(A)=0.4, P(B)=0.5, P(AB)=0.2, then Q14. Drawing without replacement
P(A|B) = produces
(A) 0.8 (B) 0.4 (C) 0.2 (D) 0.5 (A) Independent events (B) Dependent
events (C) Mutually exclusive events (D)
None
Answer: B Answer: B
Q15. P(AB) for independent events equals Q16. If P(A|B)=P(A), then A and B are
(A) P(A)+P(B) (B) P(A)/P(B) (C) P(A)·P(B) (D) (A) Dependent (B) Mutually exclusive (C)
P(A|B) Independent (D) Complementary
Answer: C Answer: C
Q17. P(AB) = P(A)+P(B) holds when events Q18. Conditional probability formula uses
are
(A) Independent (B) Mutually exclusive (C) (A) Union of events (B) Intersection of events
Dependent (D) Complementary (C) Complement (D) Sample space
Answer: B Answer: B
Q19. P(B|A) × P(A) equals Q20. Two coins tossed. P(Head on 2nd | Head
on 1st) =
(A) P(A|B) (B) P(AB) (C) P(AB) (D) P(B) (A) 1/4 (B) 1 (C) 1/2 (D) 0
Answer: C Answer: C
Q21. A variable whose value is determined Q22. Number of heads in 4 coin tosses is a
by a random experiment is called
(A) Fixed variable (B) Constant (C) Random (A) Continuous R.V. (B) Discrete R.V. (C) Fixed
variable (D) Parameter variable (D) Parameter
Answer: C Answer: B
Q23. Height of students is a Q24. For a probability distribution, P(X=x)
=
(A) Discrete R.V. (B) Fixed variable (C) (A) 0 (B) n (C) 1 (D) p
Continuous R.V. (D) Constant
Answer: C Answer: C
Q25. Possible values of discrete R.V. are Q26. Which is NOT a discrete random
variable?
(A) Infinite (B) Countable (C) Negative only (A) Number of defects (B) Dice result (C)
(D) Uncountable Weight of an apple (D) Students absent
Answer: B Answer: C
Q27. A distribution function F(x) = P(X ≤ x) is Q28. For a valid PMF, each P(x) must satisfy
called
(A) PMF (B) PDF (C) CDF (D) MGF (A) P(x) > 1 (B) P(x) < 0 (C) 0 ≤ P(x) ≤ 1 (D) P(x)
=0
Answer: C Answer: C
Q29. Continuous R.V. probability is found Q30. P(X = exact value) for a continuous R.V.
over is
(A) Exact points (B) A single value (C) An (A) 1 (B) 0.5 (C) Positive (D) 0
interval (D) A count
Answer: C Answer: D
Q31. PMF is used for Q32. PDF is used for
(A) Continuous variables (B) Discrete (A) Discrete variables (B) Continuous
variables (C) Both (D) Neither variables (C) Both (D) Neither
Answer: B Answer: B
Q33. Total area under PDF curve = Q34. CDF gives P(X ≤ x). As x ∞, F(x)
(A) 0 (B) 0.5 (C) 2 (D) 1 (A) 0 (B) 0.5 (C) 1 (D) ∞
Answer: D Answer: C
Q35. CDF is always Q36. Which gives the probability at a
specific point for discrete variable?
(A) Decreasing (B) Constant (C) (A) CDF (B) PDF (C) PMF (D) MGF
Non-decreasing (D) Negative
Answer: C Answer: C
Q37. F(-∞) for CDF equals Q38. PDF integrates to find
(A) 1 (B) 0.5 (C) −1 (D) 0 (A) Mean (B) Variance (C) Probability over
interval (D) Mode
Answer: D Answer: C
Q39. From CDF, P(a < X ≤ b) = Q40. In discrete CDF, F(x) is obtained by
(A) F(b) + F(a) (B) F(b) − F(a) (C) F(a) − F(b) (A) Differentiating PMF (B) Summing PMF up
(D) F(a) · F(b) to x (C) Integrating PDF (D) Squaring PMF
Answer: B Answer: B
Q41. E(X) is also called Q42. E(X) = x · P(x) is the formula for
(A) Variance (B) Mode (C) Expected value / (A) Variance (B) CDF (C) Expected value (D)
Mean (D) Standard Deviation SD
Answer: C Answer: C
Q43. E(c) where c is constant = Q44. E(aX) =
(A) 0 (B) c² (C) c (D) 1 (A) a²E(X) (B) aE(X) (C) E(X)/a (D) E(X)+a
Answer: C Answer: B
Q45. Var(X) = E(X²) − [E(X)]² is the Q46. Var(c) where c is constant =
(A) Long formula (B) Shortcut formula (C) (A) c² (B) 1 (C) c (D) 0
CDF formula (D) PMF formula
Answer: B Answer: D
Q47. Var(aX) = Q48. Standard deviation =
(A) aVar(X) (B) a+Var(X) (C) a²Var(X) (D) (A) Var(X) (B) [Var(X)]² (C) √Var(X) (D)
Var(X)/a 1/Var(X)
Answer: C Answer: C
Q49. For dice (1–6), E(X) = Q50. E(X+Y) =
(A) 3 (B) 3.5 (C) 4 (D) 21 (A) E(X)·E(Y) (B) E(X)−E(Y) (C) E(X)+E(Y) (D)
E(X)/E(Y)
Answer: B Answer: C
Q51. Binomial distribution requires Q52. Mean of binomial distribution =
probability of success to be
(A) Zero (B) Variable (C) Constant (D) (A) np(1−p) (B) np (C) n/p (D) p/n
Greater than 1
Answer: C Answer: B
Q53. Variance of binomial distribution = Q54. If n=10, p=0.3, then Mean =
(A) np (B) np² (C) np(1−p) (D) n²p (A) 0.3 (B) 3 (C) 7 (D) 10
Answer: C Answer: B
Q55. Binomial formula: P(X=x) = Q56. P(X=2) for n=4,p=0.5 =
(A) ^x·e^(−)/x! (B) C(n,x)·p^x·(1−p)^(n−x) (A) 0.125 (B) 0.375 (C) 0.5 (D) 0.25
(C) (1−p)^(x−1)·p (D) C(K,x)·C(N−K,n−x)/C(N,n)
Answer: B Answer: B
Q57. In binomial distribution each trial has Q58. Binomial distribution is applicable for
(A) Three outcomes (B) Only one outcome (A) Continuous data (B) Fixed independent
(C) Two outcomes (D) Infinite outcomes trials (C) Dependent trials (D) Without
replacement
Answer: C Answer: B
Q59. n=5,p=1/2, Var(X)= Q60. Coin tossed 6 times. P(0 heads) =
(A) 5/4 (B) 5/2 (C) 5 (D) 1/2 (A) (1/2)^6 (B) 1 (C) 0 (D) 6·(1/2)^6
Answer: A Answer: A
Q61. In Poisson distribution, Mean and Q62. Poisson distribution is used for
Variance are
(A) Different (B) Equal to (C) Equal to n·p (D) (A) Continuous data (B) Rare events in fixed
Zero interval (C) Dependent events (D) Binomial
cases only
Answer: B Answer: B
Q63. Formula of Poisson: P(X=x) = Q64. If =3, P(X=0) =
(A) C(n,x)p^x(1−p)^(n−x) (B) e^(−)^x / x! (A) 1 (B) e^3 (C) e^(−3) (D) 0
(C) (1−p)^(x−1)p (D) n!/x! p^x
Answer: B Answer: C
Q65. Poisson is a limiting case of Q66. For Poisson, parameter is
(A) Geometric (B) Hyper geometric (C) (A) n and p (B) N, K, n (C) (D) r and p
Binomial (D) Multinomial
Answer: C Answer: C
Q67. =4, Mean= Q68. Poisson distribution is for
(A) 2 (B) 4 (C) 16 (D) 8 (A) Discrete data (B) Continuous data (C)
Both (D) Neither
Answer: B Answer: A
Q69. Events in Poisson must be Q70. =2, Var(X) =
(A) Dependent (B) With replacement (C) (A) 4 (B) 2 (C) 1 (D) √2
Independent (D) Fixed count
Answer: C Answer: B
Q71. Geometric distribution focuses on Q72. P(X=x) for geometric =
(A) r successes (B) Exactly x successes (C) (A) C(n,x)p^x(1−p)^(n−x) (B) (1−p)^(x−1)·p (C)
First success (D) Mean events e^(−)^x/x! (D) p/q
Answer: C Answer: B
Q73. Mean of geometric distribution = Q74. Variance of geometric =
(A) p (B) 1/p (C) p/q (D) q/p² (A) 1/p (B) p (C) (1−p)/p² (D) 1/p²
Answer: B Answer: C
Q75. P(first head on 2nd toss), p=0.5 = Q76. If p=0.25, Mean of geometric =
(A) 0.5 (B) 0.25 (C) 0.125 (D) 0.75 (A) 4 (B) 0.25 (C) 3 (D) 2
Answer: B Answer: A
Q77. Geometric distribution requires Q78. Geometric is a special case of
(A) Multiple outcomes (B) Fixed number of (A) Poisson (B) Multinomial (C) Negative
trials (C) Two outcomes per trial (D) Binomial (D) Hyper Geometric
Dependent events
Answer: C Answer: C
Q79. In geometric distribution, x represents Q80. P(X>1) in geometric = P(failure on 1st) =
(A) Number of failures (B) Trial on which first (A) p (B) 1 (C) 1−p (D) p²
success occurs (C) Number of successes (D)
Population size
Answer: B Answer: C
Q81. Negative binomial finds probability of Q82. Formula: P(X=x) =
C(x−1,r−1)·p^r·(1−p)^(x−r). Here r =
(A) No success (B) First success (C) r-th (A) Total trials (B) Number of successes
success on x-th trial (D) Infinite successes required (C) Population size (D) Probability
Answer: C Answer: B
Q83. Mean of negative binomial = Q84. Variance of negative binomial =
(A) r·p (B) r/p (C) p/r (D) np (A) r/p (B) r·p·(1−p) (C) r(1−p)/p² (D) np(1−p)
Answer: B Answer: C
Q85. When r=1, negative binomial reduces Q86. Negative binomial is applicable when
to
(A) Binomial (B) Poisson (C) Geometric (D) (A) Probability changes (B) We need r
Multinomial successes (C) Population is finite (D) Trials
are dependent
Answer: C Answer: B
Q87. If r=3,p=0.5, Mean = Q88. Negative binomial differs from
binomial because
(A) 6 (B) 3 (C) 1.5 (D) 9 (A) n is fixed in neg. binomial (B) n is fixed in
binomial (C) p changes (D) Events are
dependent
Answer: A Answer: B
Q89. Geometric is to 1 success as Negative Q90. If r=2,p=0.4, Variance =
Binomial is to
(A) 0 successes (B) Infinite successes (C) r (A) 5 (B) 7.5 (C) 3 (D) 2
successes (D) n successes
Answer: C Answer: B
Q91. Hyper geometric uses sampling Q92. Parameters of hyper geometric are
(A) With replacement (B) Without (A) n, p (B) (C) N, K, n (D) r, p
replacement (C) From infinite population (D)
With constant p
Answer: B Answer: C
Q93. P(X=x) for hyper geometric uses Q94. In hyper geometric, as items drawn
increase, probability of success
(A) Exponential formula (B) Combinations (A) Stays constant (B) Changes (C) Becomes
formula (C) Factorial only (D) Poisson zero (D) Becomes 1
formula
Answer: B Answer: B
Q95. Mean of hyper geometric = Q96. Hyper geometric is used when
population is
(A) np (B) K/N (C) n·K/N (D) NK/n (A) Infinite (B) Continuous (C) Finite (D)
Independent
Answer: C Answer: C
Q97. Multinomial is a generalisation of Q98. In multinomial distribution, each trial
has
(A) Geometric (B) Poisson (C) Binomial (D) (A) One outcome (B) Two outcomes (C) More
Hyper geometric than two outcomes (D) Infinite outcomes
Answer: C Answer: C
Q99. Formula of multinomial uses Q100. If n=3 and three outcomes each with
p=1/3, P(each appears once) =
(A) Integration (B) Factorial and powers (C) e (A) 1/27 (B) 2/9 (C) 6/27 = 2/9 (D) 1/9
constant (D) Combinations only
Answer: B Answer: C
 LONG QUESTIONS WITH SOLUTIONS

LQ 1 — Binomial Distribution

Question: A fair coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting: (i) exactly 3
heads (ii) at most 2 heads (iii) at least 4 heads. Also find Mean and Variance.
Given: n = 5, p = 1/2, q = 1 − p = 1/2

Formula: P(X = x) = C(n,x) · p^x · q^(n−x)

(i) P(X = 3):

P(X=3) = C(5,3) · (1/2)³ · (1/2)²

= 10 · (1/8) · (1/4)

= 10/32 = 0.3125

(ii) P(X ≤ 2) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2):

P(X=0) = C(5,0)·(1/2)·(1/2) = 1/32

P(X=1) = C(5,1)·(1/2)¹·(1/2) = 5/32

P(X=2) = C(5,2)·(1/2)²·(1/2)³ = 10/32

P(X ≤ 2) = 1/32 + 5/32 + 10/32 = 16/32 = 0.50

(iii) P(X ≥ 4) = P(X=4) + P(X=5):

P(X=4) = C(5,4)·(1/2)·(1/2)¹ = 5/32

P(X=5) = C(5,5)·(1/2)·(1/2) = 1/32

P(X ≥ 4) = 5/32 + 1/32 = 6/32 = 0.1875

Mean and Variance:

Mean = n·p = 5 × 1/2 = 2.5

Variance = n·p·q = 5 × 1/2 × 1/2 = 1.25

LQ 2 — Poisson Distribution

Question: A call centre receives on average 3 calls per minute. Using Poisson
distribution, find the probability of receiving: (i) exactly 2 calls (ii) no calls (iii) more
than 1 call in a given minute.
Given: = 3, e ≈ 2.718, e³ ≈ 0.0498

Formula: P(X = x) = e · / x!

(i) P(X = 2):

P(X=2) = e³ · 3² / 2! = 0.0498 × 9 / 2 = 0.4482 / 2 = 0.2241

(ii) P(X = 0):

P(X=0) = e³ · 3 / 0! = 0.0498 × 1 / 1 = 0.0498

(iii) P(X > 1) = 1 − P(X ≤ 1) = 1 − [P(X=0) + P(X=1)]:

P(X=1) = e³ · 3¹ / 1! = 0.0498 × 3 = 0.1494

P(X ≤ 1) = 0.0498 + 0.1494 = 0.1992

P(X > 1) = 1 − 0.1992 = 0.8008

Mean = Variance = = 3

LQ 3 — Expected Value and Variance

Question: The probability distribution of a random variable X is given below. Find

E(X), E(X²), Var(X) and SD(X).

X 0 1 2 3

P(X) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2

Step 1 — E(X):

E(X) = 0(0.1) + 1(0.3) + 2(0.4) + 3(0.2)

= 0 + 0.3 + 0.8 + 0.6 = 1.7

Step 2 — E(X²):

E(X²) = 0²(0.1) + 1²(0.3) + 2²(0.4) + 3²(0.2)

= 0 + 0.3 + 1.6 + 1.8 = 3.7

Step 3 — Var(X):

Var(X) = E(X²) − [E(X)]² = 3.7 − (1.7)² = 3.7 − 2.89 = 0.81

Step 4 — SD(X):

SD(X) = √0.81 = 0.90

LQ 4 — Hyper Geometric Distribution

Question: A box contains 6 red balls and 4 blue balls (total 10). Three balls are
drawn without replacement. Find the probability that exactly 2 are red. Also find the
Mean.
Given: N = 10, K = 6 (red), n = 3, x = 2

Formula: P(X=x) = C(K,x) · C(N−K, n−x) / C(N,n)

Calculate combinations:

C(6,2) = 6!/(2!4!) = 15

C(4,1) = 4!/( 1!3!) = 4

C(10,3) = 10!/(3!7!) = 120

P(X = 2):

P(X=2) = (15 × 4) / 120 = 60 / 120 = 0.50

Mean:

Mean = n · K/N = 3 × 6/10 = 18/10 = 1.8

LQ 5 — Geometric Distribution

Question: A student attempts a multiple-choice question where each option has

probability 0.25 of being correct. Find the probability that the student gets the
correct answer on: (i) 1st attempt (ii) 3rd attempt (iii) before the 4th attempt. Also
find Mean and Variance.
Given: p = 0.25, q = 1 − p = 0.75

Formula: P(X = x) = q^(x−1) · p

(i) P(X = 1):

P(X=1) = (0.75) · 0.25 = 1 × 0.25 = 0.25

(ii) P(X = 3):

P(X=3) = (0.75)² · 0.25 = 0.5625 × 0.25 = 0.1406

(iii) P(X < 4) = P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3):

P(X=2) = (0.75)¹ · 0.25 = 0.1875

P(X < 4) = 0.25 + 0.1875 + 0.1406 = 0.5781

Mean and Variance:

Mean = 1/p = 1/0.25 = 4

Variance = q/p² = 0.75 / 0.0625 = 12