Confidence Intervals: Measuring
Uncertainty in Estimates
• Name: Jhenny Rose Dy
• Program/Year level/Section: BSCE-2F
• Course: BSCE
• Date: March 4, 2026
1. Introduction
In statistics, making conclusions about a population based on a sample is a common practice.
However, a single numerical estimate may not perfectly represent the true population value.
This is where confidence intervals become important.
Confidence intervals provide a range of values that likely contain the true population parameter.
Instead of giving only a single estimate, they measure the uncertainty associated with sample
data.
The objective of this write-up is to explain the concept of confidence intervals, present their
mathematical formulation, and demonstrate how they are applied in real-world situations.
2. Main Content
2.1 Definition and Explanation
A confidence interval (CI) is a range of values, derived from sample statistics, that is likely to
contain the true population parameter with a certain level of confidence (such as 95% or 99%).
Key concepts:
● Population parameter (μ or p): The true value we want to estimate.
● Sample statistic (x̄ or p̂ ): The estimate computed from sample data.
● Confidence level: The probability that the interval contains the true parameter
(commonly 90%, 95%, or 99%).
● Margin of error (E): The amount added and subtracted from the estimate to create the
interval.
Example in real life:
A survey finds that the average daily study time of 50 students is 3 hours. Instead of saying the
population mean is exactly 3 hours, we construct a confidence interval to estimate the likely
range of the true average study time of all students.
2.2 Mathematical Formulation
For a population mean (when standard deviation σ is known), the confidence interval formula is:
CI = x ± z ( / n)
Where:
● x̄ = sample mean
● z = z-value corresponding to the confidence level
● σ = population standard deviation
● n = sample size
The term:
z ( / n) is called the margin of error (E).
For a 95% confidence level, the z-value is 1.96.
2.3 Examples and Illustrations
Problem:
A sample of 36 students has an average score of 80. The population standard deviation is 12.
Construct a 95% confidence interval.
Step 1: Identify given values
x̄ = 80, σ= 12, n= 36
Step 2: Use z-value for 95% confidence
z = 1.96
Step 3: Compute margin of error
E = 1.96 (12 / 36)
E = 1.96 (12 / 6)
E = 1.96 (2)
E = 3.92
Step 4: Construct confidence interval
CI = 80 ± 3.92
CI = (76.08, 83.92)
Interpretation:
We are 95% confident that the true population mean score lies between 76.08 and 83.92.
3. Applications and Importance
Confidence intervals are widely used in many fields:
● Business: Estimating average customer spending.
● Medicine: Determining effectiveness of a new drug.
● Engineering: Measuring product quality and reliability.
● Education: Estimating average student performance.
They are important because they:
● Show the reliability of estimates.
● Provide more information than a single point estimate.
● Help decision-makers assess risk and uncertainty.
Without confidence intervals, statistical conclusions would be less informative and potentially
misleading.
4. Conclusion
Confidence intervals are essential tools in statistical analysis. They provide a range of plausible
values for population parameters and help measure uncertainty in sample-based estimates. By
understanding how to compute and interpret confidence intervals, students and professionals
can make more informed and reliable decisions.
Overall, confidence intervals improve the accuracy and credibility of statistical conclusions.
5. References
Walpole, R. E., Myers, R. H., Myers, S. L., & Ye, K. (2012). Probability and Statistics for
Engineers and Scientists.
Triola, M. F. (2018). Elementary Statistics.