May Fed Meeting Recap

Data-aware with a dovish tilt. The FOMC acknowledged the

“lack of further progress” on inflation so far this year. Chair
Powell, however, countered the likelihood of rate hikes and
projected further disinflation, given anchored inflation
expectations and imbalances in demand and supply
resolve, particularly in the labor and housing markets.

Markets liked what they heard. Despite expectations for

rate cuts being pushed back and anticipated to be less
steep than initially thought at the year's start, investors
were reassured by the continued likelihood of rate cuts
over hikes. This sentiment was reflected in the dip in
sovereign bond yields, market volatility, and the US dollar,
alongside a strengthening of risk assets.

A note on QT: We see the decision to taper QT as a nod to

liquidity considerations in the financial system, rather than
a change in policy direction.

US economy - easing momentum. The ISM manufacturing

index fell back into contractionary territory in April after
expanding in March, reflecting weak industrial activity.
Meanwhile, the US economy added 175,000 jobs last
month alongside an uptick in the unemployment rate. The
lower-than-expected jobs addition is consistent with labour
market rebalancing required to ease wage growth, and in
turn services prices. That said, the employment cost index
reflected continued strength in wage trends in the first
quarter.

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Macrobond. As of April 2023.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this
presentation. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this presentation.
April in Review
Higher-for-even-longer? Resilience in the economy, Total return in April (%)
corporate earnings, and labour markets has coincided with
1
upside surprises in US inflation. This combination has
0
raised the bar for Fed easing, boosting the prospect of a
-1
prolonged period of elevated policy rates. Consequently,
-2
April witnessed a weakening of sovereign bonds and a
bolstered US dollar, marking its fourth month of gains. -3
-4

US HY

US IG
Cash Index

EUR HY

EUR IG

US CMBS

UK IG

US MBS
US ABS

EM Corporate

EM External
Disinflation and policy divergence. The inflationary
landscape seems less ambiguous beyond US borders. The
ECB has solidified anticipations for a rate reduction this
summer. Similarly, disinflationary advancements in Sweden
Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Macrobond. As of April 30, 2024.
and Canada suggest potential monetary easing this year,
given the current restrictive policy stance. These
contrasting disinflation and policy trajectories present
opportunities for cross-market rate strategies.
Fixed income spread changes (basis points)
Steady spreads. Despite an initial widening due to the US
40 April Year-to-date
CPI inflation surprise, fixed income sector spreads
generally reverted to their historically tight levels by the 20

end of April. A robust onset to the first-quarter earnings 0

season could extend the durability of key credit metrics, -20
US March CPI and idiosyncratic
enabling spread sectors to withstand a delayed easing -40 events in select countries
cycle commencement. drove the sell-off in EM bonds
-60 US HY

US IG
EUR HY

EUR IG
EM Corporate

US ABS

US CMBS

US MBS
EM External
Looking ahead: Our outlook remains vigilant of risks such as
persistent inflation and hawkish policy shifts. However, the
Fed's May meeting has somewhat mitigated the likelihood
of imminent rate increases. While a negative growth shock Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Macrobond. As of April 30, 2024
remains within the realm of possibility, we believe that
inflationary progress coupled with the scope for monetary
easing should see central banks respond accordingly.

January February March

Risk assets were boosted by soft-landing Ongoing strength in the US economy, March saw more of the same; positive
optimism, supported by robust US growth coupled with firmer-than-expected activity data and another upside inflation
and labour market data as well as rising inflationary pressures, sparked concerns in US inflation data. Monetary policy
consumer sentiment. However, the start- over a potential ‘no-landing’ scenario and divergence also unfolded. The SNB
of-the-year price increases led to the prospect of higher-for-longer rates. emerged as the frontrunner among
unexpected strength in US inflation, The Fed indicated willingness to lower developed market economies by
tempering expectations for monetary rates only once there is greater implementing a rate cut, while the BoJ
easing. This development exerted upward confidence that inflation is on a raised rates for the first time since 2007.
pressure on sovereign bond yields but sustainable path to 2%.
propelled the US dollar upward.
Global Aggregate Total Return (%) -0.2 -0.7 0.9
US Aggregate Total Return (%) -0.3 -1.4 0.9
US Treasury 10-Year Yield (%) 4.0 4.3 4.2
Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this
presentation. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this presentation.
Leveraging data and metrics for better decision-making

The Goldman Sachs 2023 Sustainability Report, entitled

$2.6tn
Driving Long-Term Value: Our Client Centric Sustainability Size of the global green bond
Strategy, published this week highlights how we are market1
delivering sustainable finance solutions to our clients to
help them achieve their sustainability. Across our public
markets investing teams this involves leveraging data and

$327.6bn
analytical tools for better decision-making. To support our Sustainability related assets
clients in managing risks and capturing opportunities for under Goldman Sachs Asset
certain strategies, we have developed our own internal Management supervision2
sustainability assessment methodology to quantify key
sustainability metrics to enable comparability across public Source: 1 Bloomberg US Mulls First Green Bond Sales to Tap $2.6 Trillion Market (May 1,
markets investments. 2024). 2 Goldman Sachs 2023 Sustainability Report. As of December 2023.

Our Public Market Investing Sustainability Measurement

Toolkit3

• Deployment: Launched in April 2024

• Integration: Facilitates the integration of ESG factors or Did you know? The US is one the few major economies that
considerations into our investment process. has not yet issued sovereign green bonds. These bonds are
• Enhancement: Builds on existing internally developed aimed at funding activities and projects with positive
scorecards and tooling by incorporating data and environmental impacts. That said, the US Treasury is
promoting collaboration across public markets investing exploring the possibility of issuing green bonds to cater to
teams on sustainability issues. investors who are currently unable to invest in traditional
US Treasuries, including institutional investors with a
• Materiality: Identifies financial materially ESG issues for
public companies and features a proprietary materiality target allocation for green investments. We believe the
map to determine the relevant ESG issues for each green bond market is poised for further growth,
industry based on input from investment teams. broadening its currency, geographic, and industry scope as
more issuers seek to finance climate transition initiatives.
• Framework: Based on 14 key issues rolling up to six
This expansion and diversification of the green bond
themes and three sub-scores (E, S, and G). These
market will offer investors more avenues to align their
quantitative results are aggregated with the materiality
map into one quantitative ESG measure. financial objectives with environmental sustainability.

• Application: Analysts may use the toolkit to inform their

overall investment view, including their ESG rating,
where applicable.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this
presentation. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Asset Under Supervision (AUS) figures are for explicit ESG investment strategies only where ESG or
sustainability factors are an important component. As part of our investment process, we may integrate ESG factors alongside traditional factors. The identification of a risk related to an
ESG factor will not necessarily exclude a particular investment that, in our view, is otherwise suitable and attractively priced for investment, and we may invest in an issuer without
integrating ESG factors or considerations into our investment process. Moreover, ESG information, whether from an external and/or internal source, is, by nature and in many instances,
based on a qualitative and subjective assessment. An element of subjectivity and discretion is therefore inherent to the interpretation and use of ESG data. The relevance and weightings of
specific ESG factors to or within the investment process vary across asset classes, sectors and strategies and no one factor or consideration is determinative. Goldman Sachs Asset
Management in its sole discretion and without notice may periodically update or change the process for conducting its ESG assessments and implementation of its ESG views in portfolios,
including the format and content of such analysis and the tools and/or data used to perform such analysis. Accordingly, the type of assessments depicted here may not be performed for
every portfolio holding. The process for conducting ESG assessments and implementation of ESG views in portfolios, including the format and content of such analysis and the tools and/or
data used to perform such analysis, may also vary among portfolio management teams. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this presentation. 3 The sustainability measurement
toolkit was developed for Goldman Sachs Asset Management public teams only and is subject to internal information barrier restrictions. The toolkit was designed to cover corporate public
equities and fixed income securities, but is subject to data availability and subject to change at any time.
 Our outlook
Interest Rate Policy Balance Sheet Policy Outlook relative to market-
implied pricing

Fed Federal funds rate: 5.25-5.5% The Fed has engaged in passive QT A rate cut in July is plausible, Slightly dovish
Last change: July 2023 (+25bps) since June 2022. The FOMC but starting the easing in
announced it will slow the pace of September would give the Fed
Hiking cycle duration: 17 months
balance sheet runoff beginning in more time to regain
Rate at the start of latest hiking June 2024 with the monthly runoff confidence in disinflation.
cycle: 0.25% reduced from $60bn to $25bn. Expected rate at end-2024:
4.5-4.75%

ECB Deposit facility rate: 4% The ECB began winding down its We think the easing cycle will Slightly dovish
Last change: September 2023 balance sheet in March 2023 and begin this summer
(+25bps) ended reinvestments of securities considering recent growth and
purchased through its APP in July inflation developments.
Hiking cycle duration: 15 months
2023. Reinvestments of proceeds Expected rate at end-2024:
Rate at the start of the latest from maturing securities purchased 3.25%
hiking cycle: -0.5% through the PEPP will be wound down
from July 2024 and end in December
2024.

BoE Bank Rate: 5.25% The BoE has been engaged in active We think a series of rate cuts Dovish
Last change: August 2023 QT since November 2022. We will commence around mid-
(+25bps) anticipate passive QT would likely year.
continue alongside rate cuts; however, Expected rate at end-2024:
Hiking cycle duration: 21 months
we think active bond sales may be 3.75%
Rate at the start of the latest paused.
hiking cycle: 0.1%

BoJ Policy deposit rate: 0.10% We think the BoJ will continue to We anticipate further, albeit Slightly hawkish
Last change: March 2024 purchase JGBs even after ending YCC limited, rate hikes, considering
(+20bps) to manage the exit from negative real rates in Japan remain low
rates, but we think purchases in the and financial conditions are
Duration of negative rates: 98
JGB market will gradually reduce over loose relative to the inflation
months
time. backdrop.
Rate at start of the latest hiking
Expected rate at end-2024:
cycle: -0.10%
0.25%

Source: Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of May 2, 2024. Abbreviations: Quantitative Easing (QE), Quantitative Tightening (QT), Yield Curve Control (YCC), Negative Interest Rate
Policy (NIRP) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), Asset Purchase Program (APP), Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs), Japanese Government Bond (JGB).
The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this document. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Please
see additional disclosures at the end of this document.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this
presentation. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this presentation.
April 26, 2024

April 19, 2024

April 12, 2024

March 22, 2024

Navigating Emerging Market Debt

Navigating Disinflation: The Case for EM Local Bonds

Navigating EM External Debt: Earning Carry, Finding Alpha

Navigating Investment Grade Credit with Goldman Sachs Asset Management

Navigating Opportunities in Investment Grade Credit

Navigating External EM Debt

Bear (Market) Necessities: The Case for Core Fixed Income

Q2 2024 Outlook: Navigating Through the Noise

Q1 2024 Outlook: Balancing Act

Q4 2023 Outlook: Turning Cautious

Q3 2023 Outlook: Resilience and Risk

Asset Management Perspectives: Building Confidence

• From Tina to Tara: Investing in the Next Cycle

• Stronger for Longer: Investing in India’s Economic Ascent

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Index Benchmarks
Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income
or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses
which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.
The indices referenced herein have been selected because they are well known, easily
recognized by investors, and reflect those indices that the Investment Manager
believes, in part based on industry practice, provide a suitable benchmark against which
to evaluate the investment or broader market described herein. The exclusion of
“failed” or closed hedge funds may mean that each index overstates the performance of
hedge funds generally.
Sector Spread Indexes
US Investment Grade Corporates: ICE BofAML US Corporate Index
US High Yield Corporates: ICE BofAML US Corporate High Yield Index
European Investment Grade Corporates: ICE BofAML Euro Corporate Index
European High Yield Corporates: ICE BofAML Euro High Yield Index
ABS: ICE BofAML US Fixed Rate Asset-Backed Securities Index
MBS: ICE BofAML US Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Index
CMBS: ICE BofAML US Fixed Rate Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Index
EM External Debt: J.P. Morgan, EMBI Global Diversified Face Constrained Index
Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of
investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down
as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.
Abbreviations: US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of
England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Swiss National Bank (SNB), Central Bank of
Sweden (Riksbank), Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Central Bank of Norway
(Norges Bank) Bank of Canada (BoC), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Quantitative
Easing (QE), Quantitative Tightening (QT), Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program
(PEPP), Consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), developed markets (DM),
emerging markets (EM), Japanese Government Bond (JGB). Mortgage-backed securities
(MBS), Asset-backed securities (ABS).
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