04 Probability

Introduction
Theory of probability is a branch of statistical science which in turn has two major branches one branch of
its deals with the collection of data, grouping the data, classifying the data, analysing the data and drawing
inference about the population, i.e. mean, mode, median, dispersion in terms of S.D. or variance, correlation
and regression analysis etc. taken up in this branch.
Other branch of statistic with the name ''functions of random variable'' which deal with mathematical
measure of chance of happening or not happening of the events which are subjected to uncertainty. Very
useful for engineers who seek their career in inventory control.
''Most probably it will rain today'' or ''Most probably I will get into the IIT" or "Odds in favour of '𝐴′
beating 𝐵 in a table tennis match are 3: 1 are some of the common phrases which we use in our day to day
life and involve an element of uncertainty.
If we look to the origin and the historical development of this chapter, we will find that the exact seeds of
this chapter where sown by an Italian child whose name was "Jerome Cardan" in 16𝑡ℎ century.
Salient features about the "Jerome Cardan", were
• He was an extremely poor child.
• All throughout his life he was suffering from chronic illnesses and ailments to the extent to which he
was not even mobile.
• He had a super intellect. A man of versatile qualities, Scholar in both Physics and Mathematics and
was also awarded an honorary degree in medicine also.
Since he was not mobile hence his usual pass-time in the early child hood was
• Tossing coins
• Throwing of dice, playing ludo, snake and ladder, chess etc.
• Draw cards from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
• Draw balls from an urn containing certain number of Red, White and Green balls.
While he used to remain busy with such alike game, however he was very carefully observing the
manner and the frequency in which the outcomes of his games were taking place. A careful and
systematic study of his observations led him to state a classical approach of mathematically computing
the chance of happening or not happening of the events which are uncertain. Infect he was the first
person who had written the first book on classical theory of probability which was published after his
death by the efforts of his fellow mathematician Bernoulli’s & Pascal. Let us now try to understand the
rigorous and classical definition of Probability which this master brain had written in his book.

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Random Experiment, Sample Space and Event
(A) Random Experiment:
An action or operation resulting in two or more well defined outcomes. e.g. tossing a coin, throwing a die,
drawing a card from a pack of well shuffled playing cards etc.
An experiment is called random experiment if it satisfies the following two conditions:
(i) It has more than one possible outcome.
(ii) It is not possible to predict the outcome in advance.
Example:
(i) Tossing a coin is a random experiment.
(ii) Throwing a dice is a random experiment.
(iii) Drawing a card from a well shuffled deck of 52 playing card is also a random experiment.
Trail: Each performance of the random experiment is called a trial.
(B) Sample Space:
A set 𝑆 that consists of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called a sample space and each
outcome is called a sample point. Often, there will be more than one sample space that can describe
outcomes of an experiment, but there is usually only one that will provide the most information.
e.g. in an experiment of "throwing a die", following sample spaces are possible:
(i) {even number, odd number}
(ii) {a number less than 3, a number equal to 3, a number greater than 3}
(iii) {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Here 3𝑟𝑑 sample space is the one which provides most information.
If a sample space has a finite number of points it is called finite sample space and if it has an infinite number
of points, it is called infinite sample space.
e.g. (i) "in a toss of coin" either a head (𝐻) or tail (𝑇) comes up, therefore sample space of this experiment
is 𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇} which is a finite sample space.
(ii) "Selecting a number from the set of natural numbers", sample space of this experiment is
𝑆 = {1,2,3,4, . . . . . . } which is an infinite sample space.
Illustration 1:
Two coins (a one-rupee coin and a two-rupee coin) are tossed once. Find a sample space.
Solution:
Clearly the coins are distinguishable in the sense that we can speak of the first coin and the second coin
Since either coin can turn up Head (𝐻) or Tail (𝑇), the possible outcomes may be Heads on both coins =
(𝐻, 𝐻) = 𝐻𝐻
Head on first coin and Tail on the other = (𝐻, 𝑇) = 𝐻𝑇
Tail on first coin and Head on the other = (𝑇, 𝐻) = 𝑇𝐻
Tail on both coins = (𝑇, 𝑇) = 𝑇𝑇
Thus, the sample space is 𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}
Illustration 2:
When a coin is tossed twice if head appears in the second throw, then a dice is thrown. Write down the
sample space of the experiment.

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Solution:
When a coin is tossed two times then possible outcomes are {(𝑇𝑇), (𝐻𝑇), (𝑇𝐻), (𝐻𝐻)}
If head appears in the second throw then dice is thrown.
∴ All possible outcomes of the experiment are
𝑆 = {(𝑇𝑇), (𝐻𝑇), (𝑇𝐻1), (𝑇𝐻2), (𝑇𝐻3), (𝑇𝐻4), (𝑇𝐻5), (𝑇𝐻6), (𝐻𝐻1), (𝐻𝐻2), (𝐻𝐻3), (𝐻𝐻4),
(𝐻𝐻5), (𝐻𝐻6)}
(C) Event:
An event is defined as an occurrence or situation, for example
(i) in a toss of a coin, it shows head,
(ii) scoring a six on the throw of a die,
(iii) winning the first prize in a raffle,
(iv) being dealt a hand of four cards which are all clubs.
In every case it is set of some or all possible outcomes of the experiment. Therefore event (𝐴) is subset of
sample space (𝑆). If outcome of an experiment is an element of 𝐴 we say that event A has occurred.
⚫ An event consisting of a single point of 𝑺 is called a simple or elementary event.
⚫ 𝜙 is called impossible event and 𝑆 (sample space) is called sure event.
Probability of occurrence of an event 𝐴 is denoted by 𝑃(𝐴).
(1) Exp.: Throwing a coin
𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇}
𝐸1 : 𝐻 occurs = {𝐻}
𝐸2 : 𝑇 occurs = {𝑇}
(2) Exp.: Throwing 2 coin
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}
𝐸1 = At least one head = {𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻}
𝐸2 = Exactly one tail= {𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻}
(3) Throwing a dice
𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
𝐸1 = Getting even number= {2,4,6}
(A) Simple Event:
An event consisting of a single point of 𝑆 is called a Simple or Elementary Event.
(B) Compound Event:
If an event has more than one sample points it is called Compound Event. If 𝐴 & 𝐵 are two given
events, then 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 is called compound event and is denoted by 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 or 𝐴𝐵 or 𝐴 & 𝐵.

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Note: Playing cards: A pack of playing cards consists of 52 cards of 4 suits, 13 in each, as shown in figure.

Ace Face Cards

or Court Cards

Clubs
Black Cards

Spades
Diamonds Hearts
Red Cards

Recognition of Cards:
K Q J A
King Queen Jack Ace

1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1

1 1 1 1

4 4 4 4

Face Cards:
Face cards contain 12 cards all of 𝐾, 𝑄 and 𝐽 having designed a figure of a person.
i.e., Face cards = 4 + 4 + 4 = 12,

Types of Events:
(A) Simple Event:
An event consisting of a single point of 𝑆 is called a Simple or Elementary Event.
(B) Compound Event:
If an event has more than one sample points it is called Compound Event. If 𝐴 & 𝐵 are two given
events then 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 is called compound event and is denoted by 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 or 𝐴𝐵 or 𝐴 & 𝐵.
(C) Mutually Exclusive Events:
Two events are said to be Mutually Exclusive (or disjoint or incompatible) if the occurrence of one
precludes (rules out) the simultaneous occurrence of the other. If 𝐴 & 𝐵 are two mutually exclusive
events, then 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.
Consider, for example, choosing numbers at random from the set {3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12} If,

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Event 𝐴 is the selection of a prime number,
Event 𝐵 is the selection of an odd number,
Event 𝐶 is the selection of an even number,
then 𝐴 and 𝐶 are mutually exclusive as none of the numbers in this set is both prime and even. But 𝐴
and 𝐵 are not mutually exclusive as some numbers are both prime and odd (viz. 3,5,7,11).
(D) Equally Likely Events:
Events are said to be Equally Likely when each event is as likely to occur as any other event. Note
that the term 'at random' or 'randomly' means that all possibilities are equally likely.
(E) Exhaustive Events:
Events 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶. . . . . . . . 𝑁 are said to be Exhaustive Events if no event outside this set can result as an
outcome of an experiment. For example, if 𝐴 & 𝐵 are two events defined on a sample space 𝑆 and 𝐴 &
𝐵 are exhaustive ⇒ 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑆 ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1.
(F) Complement of an event:
The set of all outcomes which are in 𝑆 but not in 𝐴 is called the complement of the event
𝐴 & denoted by 𝐴̄, 𝐴𝑐 , 𝐴′ or ‘not 𝐴’.

Comparative Study of Equally Likely, Mutually Exclusive and Exhaustive

Events:

[Link]. Experiment Events E/L M/E Exhaustive

𝐴: throwing an odd face {1,3,5}
1. Throwing of a die No Yes No
𝐵: throwing a composite {4,6}
A ball is drawn from an 𝐸1 : getting a White ball
2. urn containing 2White, 𝐸2 : getting a Red ball No Yes Yes
3Red and 4Green balls 𝐸3 : getting a Green ball
𝐴: throwing a doublet
{11, 22, 33, 44, 55, 66}
3. Throwing a pair of dice Yes No No
𝐵: throwing a total of 10 or more
{46, 64, 55, 56, 65, 66}
𝐸1 : getting a heart
From a well shuffled pack 𝐸2 : getting a spade
4. Yes Yes Yes
of cards a card is drawn 𝐸3 : getting a diamond
𝐸4 : getting a club
From a well shuffled pack 𝐴 = getting a heart
5. No No No
of cards a card is drawn 𝐵 = getting a face card

Illustration 3:
An ordinary deck of cards contains 52 cards divided into four suits. Thered suits are diamonds and hearts
and black suits are clubs and spades. The cards 𝐽, 𝑄,and 𝐾 are called face cards. Suppose we pick one card
from the deck at random.
(A) What is the sample space of the experiment?
(B) What is the event that the chosen card is a black face card?

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Solution:
(A) The outcomes in the sample space 𝑆 are 52 cards in the deck.
(B) Let 𝐸 be the event that a black face card is chosen. The outcomes in 𝐸 are Jack, Queen, King or spades or
clubs. Symbolically
𝐸 = {𝐽, 𝑄, 𝐾, of spades and clubs} or 𝐸 = {𝐽,𝑄,𝐾,𝐽 ,𝑄,𝐾}
Illustration 4:
Suppose that each child born is equally likely to be a boy or a girl. Consider a family with exactly three children.
List the eight elements in the sample space whose outcomes are all possible genders of the three children.
Solution:
All possible genders are expressed as:
𝑆 = {𝐵𝐵𝐵, 𝐵𝐵𝐺, 𝐵𝐺𝐵, 𝐵𝐺𝐺, 𝐺𝐵𝐵, 𝐺𝐵𝐺, 𝐺𝐺𝐵, 𝐺𝐺𝐺}
Illustration 5:
A coin is tossed. If it shows head, we draw a ball from a bag consisting of 3 blue and 4 white balls; if it shows
tail we throw a die. Describe the sample space of this experiment.
Solution:
Let us denote blue balls by 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , 𝐵3 and the white balls by 𝑊1 , 𝑊2 , 𝑊3 , 𝑊4 . Then a sample space of the
experiment is
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐵1 , 𝐻𝐵2 , 𝐻𝐵3 , 𝐻𝑊1 , 𝐻𝑊2 , 𝐻𝑊3 , 𝐻𝑊4 , 𝑇1, 𝑇2, 𝑇3, 𝑇4, 𝑇5, 𝑇6}.
Here 𝐻𝐵𝑖 means head on the coin and ball 𝐵𝑖 is drawn, 𝐻𝑊𝑖 means head on the coin and ball 𝑊𝑖 is drawn.
Similarly, 𝑇𝑖 means tail on the coin and the number 𝑖 on the die.
Illustration 6:
Consider the experiment in which a coin is tossed repeatedly until a head comes up. Describe the sample
space.
Solution:
In the experiment head may come up on the first toss, or the 2𝑛𝑑 toss, or the 3𝑟𝑑 toss and so on. Hence, the
desired sample space is 𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻, . . . }
Illustration 7:
A coin is tossed three times, consider the following events.
𝐴: 'no head appears'
𝐵: 'exactly one head appears'
𝐶: 'at least two heads appear'
Do they form a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events?
Solution:
The sample space of the experiment is
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}
Events 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 are given by
𝐴 = {𝑇𝑇𝑇}
𝐵 = {𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻}
𝐶 = {𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻}
Now,
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 = {𝑇𝑇𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻} = 𝑆
Therefore 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 are exhaustive events. Also, 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝜙, 𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 = 𝜙 and 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 = 𝜙. Therefore, the
events are pair-wise disjoint, i.e., they are mutually exclusive. Hence, 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 form a set of mutually
exclusive and exhaustive events.

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Classical Definition of Probability
If 𝑛 represents the total number of equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes of an
experiment and 𝑚 of them are favourable to the happening of the event 𝐴, then the probability of
𝑚
happening of the event 𝐴 is given by 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑛 . There are (𝑛 − 𝑚) outcomes which are favourable to the
event that 𝐴 does not happen. 'The event 𝐴 does not happen' is denoted by A
̅ (and is read as 'not 𝐴′)
n−m m
Thus P( A) = =1−
n n
i.e. P( A) = 1 − P( A)
Note:
(i) 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1
(ii) P( A) + P ( A ) = 1 , Where A = Not 𝐴 ;

This relationship is most useful in the 'at least one' type of problems.

and P ( A ) =
x y
(iii) If 𝑥 cases are favourable to 𝐴 & 𝑦 cases are favourable to A then P ( A ) = .
( x + y) ( x + y)
We say that Odds In favour of 𝐴 are 𝑥: 𝑦 & Odds against 𝐴 are 𝑦 ∶ 𝑥

Other Definitions of Probability

Empirical Probability:
The probability that you would hit the bull's-eye on a dartboard with one throw of a dart would depend on
how much you had practised, how much natural talent for playing darts you had, how tired you were, how
good a dart you were using etc. all of which are impossible to quantify. A method which can be adopted in
the example given above is to throw the dart several times (each throw is a trial) and count the number of
times you hit the bull's-eye (a success) and the number of times you miss (a failure). Then an empirical
number of successes
value of the probability that you hit the bull's-eye with any one throw is
number of successes + number of failures
. If the number of throws is small, this does not give a particular good estimate but for a large number of
throws the result is more reliable.
When the probability of the occurrence of an event A cannot be worked out exactly, an empirical value can
be found by adopting the approach described above, that is:
(i) making a large number of trials (i.e. set up an experiment in which the event may, or may not, occur and note
the outcome),
(ii) counting the number of times the event does occur, i.e. the number of successes,
number of successes r
(iii) calculating the value of =
number of trials (i.e. successes + failures) n
r
The probability of event A occurring is defined as P( A) = lim  
n →  n 

n → means that the number of trials is large (but what should be taken as 'large' depends on the
problem).

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Illustration 8:
A coin is tossed successively three times. Find the probability of getting exactly one head or two heads.
Solution:
Let 𝑆 be the sample space and 𝐸 be the event of getting exactly one head or exactly two heads, then
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}.
and 𝐸 = {𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻}
∴ 𝑛(𝐸) = 6 and 𝑛(𝑆) = 8.
n( E ) 6 3
Now required probability, P ( E ) = = = .
n( S ) 8 4
Illustration 9:
Words are formed with the letters of the word 𝑃𝐸𝐴𝐶𝐸. Find the probability that 2 𝐸′𝑠 come together.
Solution:
5!
Total number of words which can be formed with the letters 𝑃, 𝐸, 𝐴, 𝐶, 𝐸 = = 60
2!
24 2
Number of words in which 2 𝐸′𝑠 come together = 4! = 24  reqd. prob. = =
60 5
Illustration 10:
A bag contains 5 red and 4 green balls. Four balls are drawn at random, then find the probability that two
balls are of red and two balls are of green colour.
Solution:
𝑛(𝑠)= the total number of ways of drawing 4 balls out of total 9 balls: 9 C4
𝐴: Drawing 2 red and 2 green balls; n ( A) =5 C2 4 C2
5 4  4  3
n ( A)
C2  4C2
5
2 2 10
∴ P( A) = = 9 = =
n(s) C4 9  8  7  6 21
4  3 2

Odds in Favour and Odds Against of an Event:

If an experiment has (𝑚 + 𝑛) as a total number of outcomes which are equally likely, mutually exclusive
and exhaustive,
and if '𝑚′ outcomes are in favour of an event ′𝐴′ and 𝑛 outcomes are not in favour of that event Ameans 𝑛
outcomes are in against of event 𝐴 then we can say –
m No. of outcomes which are in favour of event A
Odds in favour of event 𝐴 =
n No. of outcomes which are not in favour of even A
n No. of outcomes which are not in favour of even A
Odds in against of event 𝐴 = =
m No. of outcomes which are in favour of event A
Note:
a
If 𝑃(𝐴) = then
b
(i) odds in favour of event 𝐴 = 𝑎: 𝑏– 𝑎.
(ii) odds against of event = 𝑏– 𝑎: 𝑎.

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Problems Based on Combinatorial
Illustration 11:
From a group of 10 persons consisting of 5 lawyers, 3 doctors and 2 engineers, four persons are selected
at random. The probability that the selection contains at least one of each category is-
1 1 2
(A) (B) (C) (D) none of these
2 3 3
Solution:
n ( S ) =10 C4 = 210 .
n ( E ) =5 C2 3 C1 2 C1 +5 C1 3 C2 2 C1 +5 C1 3 C1 2 C2 = 105
105 1
∴ P(E) = = .
210 2
Illustration 12:
Three vertices out of six vertices of a regular hexagon are chosen randomly. The probability of getting a
equilateral triangle after joining three vertices is –
𝐸 𝐷

𝐹 𝐶

𝐴 𝐵
1 1 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
5 20 10 2
Ans. (C)
Solution:
The total no. of cases = 6 C3 = 20
As shown in the figure only two triangles 𝐴𝐶𝐸 and 𝐵𝐷𝐹 are equilateral. So number of favourable cases is 2.
2 1
Hence the required probability = = .
20 10
Illustration 13:
An old man while dialling a seven-digit telephone number, after having dialled the first five digits, suddenly
forgets the last two. But he remembered that the last two digits were different. On this assumption he
randomly dials the last two digits. What is the probability that the correct telephone number is dialled.
Solution:
Note that total number of ways in which the last two digits (different) can be dialled is 10 × 9 = 90. Out of
these 90 𝐸𝐿/𝑀𝐸/ and exhaustive outcomes only one of them favours happening of the event "correct
1
telephone is dialled". Hence P ( E ) =
90
What the probability would have been if he did not even remember the last two digits were different:
Here 𝑛(𝑆) = 10 × 10 = 100
1
Hence P ( E ) =
100

Illustration 14:
4 Apples and 3 Oranges are randomly placed in a line. Find the chances that
(i) the extreme fruits are both oranges.
(ii) all apples are together

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Solution:
7! 5! 5! 4!3! 1
(i) n ( S ) = ; n( A) =  P = . =
4!3! 4! 4! 7! 7
Note whether fruits the same species are different or alike that probability of the required event remains the
same.
(ii) n ( F ) = A1 A2 A3 A4 O1O2O3
 
= 4! 4! → ( [Link] ) × ( arrangemnet of (1unit +[Link] ) )
4! 4!
P=
7!
Illustration 15:
Two natural numbers are randomly selected from the set of first 20 natural numbers. Find the probability
that
(A) Their sum is odd
(B) sum is even
(C) selected pair is twin prime.
Solution:
20
(A) 𝑆 = {1, 2, 3, . . . . . . , 19, 20}; 𝑛(𝑆) = C2
100 10
𝑛(𝐴) = 10 C1 .10 C1 = 100  P ( A ) = = (sum odd ⇒ none odd and one even)
190 19
90 
(B) 𝑛(𝐵) =10 𝐶2 +10 𝐶2 = 2.10 𝐶2 = 90 ⇒ 𝑃(𝐵) = =
190 19
(sum even ⇒ both odd or both even)
4 2
(C) 𝑛(𝐶) = {(3, 5), (5, 7), (11, 13), (17, 19)} ⇒ 𝑃(𝐶) = =
190 95
Illustration 16:
Pair of dice has been rolled/thrown/cast once. Find the probability that at least one of the dice shows up
the face one.
Solution:
There are four 𝑀𝐸 and Exhaustive cases
𝐸1 : 1𝑠𝑡 dice only shows up the face one.
𝐸2 : 2𝑛𝑑 dice only shows up the face one.
𝐸3 : both dice shows up the face one.
𝐸4 : None of the dice shows up the face one.
Out of these, first 3 cases favours happening of the required event. Hence
5  5 11
𝑃 (required event)= 1 − 𝑃(𝐸4 ) = 1 − =
36 36
Note that 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , 𝐸3 , 𝐸4 are not equally likely.

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Venn Diagrams
In the Chapter on Sets, we have studied about different ways of combining two or more sets, viz, union,
intersection, difference, complement of a set etc. Like-wise we can combine two or more events by using
the analogous set notations.
Let 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 be events associated with an experiment whose sample space is 𝑆.
Complementary Event:
For every event A, there corresponds another event 𝐴′ or 𝐴̄ called the complementary event to 𝐴. It is also
called the event 'not 𝐴'.
For example, take the experiment 'of tossing three coins'. An associated sample space is
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}
Let 𝐴 = {𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝐻} be the event 'only one tail appears'.

𝐴′ or 𝐴
Clearly for the outcome 𝐻𝑇𝑇, the event 𝐴 has not occurred.
But we may say that the event 'not 𝐴′ has occurred. Thus, with every outcome which is not in 𝐴, we say that
'not 𝐴′ occurs. Thus the complementary event 'not 𝐴′ to the event 𝐴 is
𝐴′ = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇} or 𝐴′ = {𝜔: 𝜔 ∈ 𝑆 and 𝜔 ∉ 𝐴} = 𝑆– 𝐴
The Event 'A or B':
Recall that union of two sets 𝐴 and 𝐵 denoted by 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 contains all those elements which are either in 𝐴
or in 𝐵 or in both.
When the sets 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two events associated with a sample space, then ′𝐴 ∪ 𝐵′ is the event 'either 𝐴 or
𝐵 or both'. This event ′𝐴 ∪ 𝐵′ is also called ′𝐴 or 𝐵'.
𝐴 𝐵 𝑆

𝑨∪𝑩

Therefore Event '𝐴 or 𝐵′ = 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = {𝜔: 𝜔 ∈ 𝐴 or 𝜔 ∈ 𝐵}

The Event 'A and B':
We know that intersection of two sets 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 is the set of those elements which are common to both 𝐴 and
𝐵. i.e., which belong to both ′𝐴 and 𝐵′. If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two events, then the set 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 denotes the event ′𝐴
and 𝐵'.

𝐴 𝐵

𝐴∩𝐵
Thus, 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {𝜔 ∶ 𝜔 𝐴 and 𝜔 ∈ 𝐵}
For example, in the experiment of 'throwing a die twice'
Let 𝐴 be the event 'score on the first thrown is six' and 𝐵 is the even 'sum of two scores is at least 11' then
𝐴 = {(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5)(6,6)}
and 𝐵 = {(5,6), (6,5), (6,6)}
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So 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {(6,5), (6,6)}
Note that the set 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {(6, 5), (6, 6)} may represent the vent 'the score on the first throw is six and the
sum of the scores is at least 11'.
The Event 'A but not B' :
𝐴 𝐵

𝐴 ∪ 𝐵ത
We know that 𝐴– 𝐵 is the set of all those elements which are in 𝐴 but not in 𝐵.
Therefore, the set 𝐴 − 𝐵 may denote the event ′𝐴 but not 𝐵'. We know that
𝐴– 𝐵 = 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′
The Event 'neither A nor B' :
𝐴 𝐵

𝐴ҧ ∩ 𝐵ത
The set of the elements which are neither in set 𝐴 nor in set 𝐵. i.e.
𝑆– (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) and which is denoted on A  B .

Addition Theorem on Probability:

If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are two events associated with an experiment then 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) is called the sum of the probabilities
of all the sample points in 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 or probability of occurrence of atleast one of the events from 𝐴 and 𝐵 and
the expression for 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) is called the addition theorem on probability From the Venn diagram it is clear
that
𝐴 𝐵 𝑆

𝑃(Occurence atleast one = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

of the events from 𝐴 and 𝐵) ̅ ∩ 𝐵)

= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴

𝑃(𝐴 or 𝐵 or both) = 𝑃(𝐵) + (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵ത)

⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
or

𝑃(𝐴 + 𝐵) = 1 – 𝑃(𝐴ҧ ∩ 𝐵ത)

𝑃(occurrence of exactly one of the events) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵ത) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵ത)𝐴𝐵 𝐴 𝐵

or
𝑃(𝐴 or 𝐵 but not both) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

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Note:
(i) If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are mutually exclusive events then –
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵){∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0}
(ii) If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are exhaustive events then 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1
(iii) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1– ( A  B )
(iv) If 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 … 𝐸𝑛 are mutually exclusive & exhaustive, then 𝑃(𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 . . .∪ 𝐸) = 1
⇒ 𝑃(𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ) . . . + 𝑃(𝐸𝑛 ) = 1
(v) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) < 𝑃(𝐴) or 𝑃(𝐵) < 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) < 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

Problems Based on Venn Diagrams

Illustration 17:
Consider the experiment of rolling a die. Let 𝐴 be the event 'getting a prime number', 𝐵 be the event 'getting
an odd number'. Write the sets representing the events
(i) 𝐴 or 𝐵
(ii) 𝐴 and 𝐵
(iii) 𝐴 but not 𝐵
(iv) 'not 𝐴'.
Solution:
Here 𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}, 𝐴 = {2,3,5}
𝐴 𝐵

2 1
4 6
Obviously
(i) '𝐴 or 𝐵′ = 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = {1,2,3,5} (ii) ′𝐴 and 𝐵′ = 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {3,5}
(iii) '𝐴 but not 𝐵′ = 𝐴– 𝐵 = {2} (iv) 'not 𝐴′ = 𝐴′ = {1,4,6}
Note :
(i) If 𝐴 & 𝐵 are two subsets of a universal set 𝑈, then
(A) ( A  B ) = Ac  B c 𝐴 − 𝐵 or 𝐴\𝐵 or 𝐴 ∩
c

𝐵ത 𝑆
(B) (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)𝑐 = 𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝐵𝑐 (DE MORGAN'S LAW)
(ii) 𝐴 ∪ (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∩ (𝐴 ∪ 𝐶)
(iii) 𝐴 ∩ (𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ∪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶)
(iv) (𝐴\𝐵) → read as 𝐴 minus 𝐵 𝐴 𝐵
𝑐
(𝐴\𝐵) = (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )
𝑃(𝐴\𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
Illustration 18:
𝐴 and 𝐵 are two candidates seeking admission in a college. The probability that 𝐴 is selected is 0.7 and the
probability that exactly one of them is selected is 0.6. Find the probability that 𝐵 is selected.
Solution:
Let 𝑝 be the probability that 𝐵 gets selected.
𝑃 (Exactly one of 𝐴, 𝐵 is selected) = 0.6 (given)
⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 is selected, 𝐵 is not selected; 𝐵 is selected, 𝐴 is not selected) = 0.6
⇒ 𝑃 (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′) + 𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵) = 0.6
⇒ 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵′) + 𝑃(𝐴′)𝑃(𝐵) = 0.6
⇒ (0.7)(1– 𝑝) + (0.3)𝑝 = 0.6
⇒ 𝑝 = 0.25
Thus the probability that 𝐵 gets selected is 0.25.

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Illustration 19:
The probability of simultaneous occurrence of at least one of two events 𝐴 and 𝐵 is 𝑝. If the probability that
exactly one of 𝐴, 𝐵 occurs is 𝑞, then prove that 𝑃(𝐴′ ) + 𝑃(𝐵′ ) = 2 − 2𝑝 + 𝑞.
Solution:
Since 𝑃(exactly one of 𝐴, 𝐵 occurs) = 𝑞 (given), we get
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑞
⇒ 𝑝– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑞 ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑝– 𝑞
⇒ 1– 𝑃(𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′) = 𝑝– 𝑞 ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵′) = 1– 𝑝 + 𝑞
⇒ 𝑃(𝐴′) + 𝑃(𝐵′) – 𝑃 (𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′) = 1– 𝑝 + 𝑞
⇒ 𝑃(𝐴′) + 𝑃(𝐵′) = (1– 𝑝 + 𝑞) + 𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵′)
= (1– 𝑝 + 𝑞) + (1– 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵))= (1– 𝑝 + 𝑞) + (1– 𝑝)
= 2– 2𝑝 + 𝑞.
Illustration 20:
Let us now conduct an experiment of tossing a pair of dice. Two events defined on the experiment are
𝐴: getting a doublet 𝐵: getting total score of 10 or more
Show a Venn diagram representing events
A  B , A  B , B  A , 𝐴, 𝐵, A  B

44 46
33 55
̅
𝑨∩𝑩 ̅ 64
𝑨∩𝑩 𝑩∩𝑨
22 66 65
11 56
𝐴 𝐵 𝐴ҧ ∩ 𝐵ത
Solution:
Sample space of event 𝐴 = {11,22,33,44,55,66}
Sample space of event 𝐵 = {64,46,55,56,65,66}
Illustration 21:
𝐴 card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards.
𝐴: red card.
𝐵: face card then find
(i) 𝑃(𝐴) (ii) 𝑃(𝐵) (iii) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
(iv) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) (v) 𝑃(𝐴 ) 𝑐
(vi) 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵)
(vii) 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴′) (viii) P( A  B ) (ix) P( A  B ) (x) 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 /𝐵𝑐 )
Solution:
𝐴 card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards.
𝐴: red card.
𝐵: face card then find
(i) 𝑃(𝐴)
𝐴: 𝑛(𝐹) = 26𝑛(𝑠) = 52
26 1
𝑃(𝐴)= =
52 2
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(ii) 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑛(𝑓) = 12 𝑛(𝑠) = 52𝑛(𝐵𝑐 ) = 40
12 3
𝑃(𝐵)= =
52 13
(iii) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑛(𝐹) = 6
6 3
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)= =
52 26
(iv) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
26 12 6 8
+ − =
52 52 52 13
(v) 𝑃(𝐴𝐶 ) =
𝑛(𝐴𝐶 ) = 26
26 1
𝑃(𝐴𝐶 )= =
52 2
(vi) 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵)
n( A − B ) 20 5
𝑃(𝐴 − 𝐵) ⇒ = =
n( s ) 52 13
n( B − A) 6 3
(vii) 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴′) = 𝑃(𝐵 − 𝐴) = = =
n( s ) 52 26

(viii) P( A  B )
= 1– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
6 23
= 1− =
52 26

(ix) P( A  B )
= 1– 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
32 5
=1− =
52 13

(x) 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 /𝐵𝑐 )

= P( Ac − B c )
= P( B − A)

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6
= 52 =

or 𝑃(𝐵)– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵
12 6 3
= − =
52 52 26
Illustration 22:
Two students Anil and Ashima appeared in an examination. The probability that Anil will qualify the
examination is 0.05 and that Ashima will qualify the examination is 0.10. The probability that both will
qualify the examination is 0.02. Find the probability that
(a) Both Anil and Ashima will not qualify the examination
(b) At least one of them will not qualify the examination and
Solution:
Let 𝐸 and 𝐹 denote the events that Anil and Ashima will qualify the examination, respectively.
Given that 𝑃(𝐸) = 0.05, 𝑃(𝐹) = 0.10 and 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 0.02
Then
(A) The event 'both Anil and Ashima will not qualify the examination' may be expressed as 𝐸 ′ ∩ 𝐹′ . Since,
𝐸′ is not 𝐸,
i.e., Anil will not qualify the examination and 𝐹′ is 'not 𝐹, i.e., Ashima will not qualify the examination.
Also 𝐸 ′ ∩ 𝐹′ = (𝐸 ∪ 𝐹)′ (By Demorgan's Law)
Now 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐹) − 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹)
or 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹) = 0.05 + 0.10 − 0.02 = 0.13
Therefore 𝑃(𝐸 ′ ∩ 𝐹 ′ ) = 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹 ′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹) = 1– 0.13 = 0.87
(B) 𝑃(at least one of them will not qualify)
= 1 − 𝑃(both of them will qualify)
= 1 − 0.02 = 0.98

Conditional Probability:
Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be any two events associated with a random experiment. The probability of occurrence of
event 𝐴 when the event 𝐵 has already occurred is called the conditional probability of 𝐴 when 𝐵 is given
and is denoted as 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵). The conditional probability 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) is meaningful only when 𝑃(𝐵) 0, i.e., when
𝐵 is not an impossible event.
By definition,
 A
P   = Probability of occurrence of event 𝐴 when the event 𝐵 as already occurred
B
Number of cases favourable to B which are also favourable to A
=
Number of cases favourable to B
 A  Number of cases favourable to A  B
∴ P  =
B Number of cases favourable to B
Number of cases favourable to A  B
 A  Number of cases in the sample space
Also, P   =
B Number of cases favourable to B
Number of cases in the sample space

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 A  P( A  B )
∴ P  = , provided 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0.
B P( B )
Similarly, we have
 B  P( A  B )
P  = , provided 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0.
 A P( A)

Problems Based on Conditional Probability

Illustration 23:
Roll a fair die twice. Let 𝐴 be the event that the sum of the two rolls equals six, and let 𝐵 be the event that
the same number comes up twice. What is 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵)?
(A) 1/6 (B) 5/36 (C) 1/5 (D) none
Solution:
𝐴 = {(1, 5), (4, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)}
𝐵 = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}
 A  P( A  B ) n( A  B ) 1
P  = = =
B P( B ) n( B ) 6
Illustration 24:
In a class, 30% of the students failed in Physics, 25% failed in Mathematics and 15% failed in both Physics
and Mathematics. If a student is selected at random failed in Mathematics, find the probability that he failed
in Physics also.
Solution:
 A
Let 𝐴 be the event "failed in Physics" and 𝐵 be the event "failed in Mathematics". We want to find P   .
B
30 25
It is given that 𝑃(𝐴) = and 𝑃(𝐵) =
100 100
15
Also 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
100
 A  P( A  B ) 15/100 15 3
Therefore 𝑃.   = = = =
B P( B ) 25/100 25 5
Illustration 25:
If a pair of dice is thrown and it is known that sum of the numbers is even, then find the probability that
the sum is less than 6.
Solution:
Let 𝐴 be the given event and let 𝐵 be the event, whose probability is to be found. Then
 B  P ( B  A) 4 /36 2
Required probability. P   = = =
 A P( A) 18 /36 9
Illustration 26:
If 2 numbers appearing on the dice are different, then find probability that
(i) Their sum is six.
(ii) One face is 1.
(iii) Sum exceeds 9.
(iv) Sum is even
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Solution:
(i) (1, 5), (2, 4), (4, 2), (5, 1)
𝑛(𝐹) = 4, 𝑛(𝑠) = 30
4
𝑃=
30
(ii) (1,2), (2,1), (1,3), (3,1), (1,4), (4,1), (1,5), (5,1), (1,6), (6,1)
𝑛(𝐹) = 10, 𝑛(𝑠) = 30
1
𝑃=
3
(iii) (4,6), (6,4), (6,5), (5,6)
𝑛(𝐹) = 4, 𝑛(𝑠) = 30
4
𝑃=
30
(iv) (1,3), (2,4), (3,1), (4,2), (5,1), (1,5), (2,6), (3,5), (4,6), (5,3), (6,2), (6,4)
𝑛(𝐹) = 12
12 2
𝑃= =
30 5
Illustration 27:
A bag contains 10 black & 5 white Balls. 2 Balls are drawn randomly one by one without replacement from
the bag then find probability :-
(i) Both Balls are Black
(ii) At least one Ball is Black.
Solution:
10
C1 9 C1 10  9
(i)  14 =
15
C1 C1 15  14
(ii) 𝑛(𝑠) = 15 × 14
BW OR WB OR BB
10
C1  C15 5
C1  C1
10 10
C1  9C1
+ +
15
C1  5C1 15
C1  14C1 15
C1  14C1

Multiplication Theorem on Probability:

Let 𝐴 and 𝐵 be two events associated with a sample space 𝑆. Clearly, the set 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 denotes the event that
both 𝐴 and 𝐵 have occurred. In other words, 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 denotes the simultaneous occurrence of the events
𝐸 and 𝐹. The event 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 is also written as 𝐴𝐵.

We know that the conditional probability of event 𝐴 given that 𝐵 has occurred is denoted by 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) and is
given by
P( A  B )
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0
P( B )
From this result, we can write
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵) · 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) ...(i)

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Also, we know that
P( A  B )
P( B | A) = , 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0
P( A)
or (since 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴)
Thus, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) · 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) ...(ii)
Combining (i) and (ii), we find that
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵 |𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵)𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) provided 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0 and 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0
The above result is known as the multiplication rule of probability.

Dependent and Independent Events:

Independent events – Events 𝐴 and 𝐵 are said to be independent if occurrences or non-occurrence of one
does not affect the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of the other.
(i) Two people holding a normal dice and the other a coin, throw them once, then getting a 6 on normal
dice and getting a head on the coin are the examples of events which are independent.
(ii) From an urn containing 2𝑅, 3𝐺 and 4𝑊 balls, a ball is drawn its colour is noted, the ball is replaced in
the urn and another ball is drawn. Getting a red and a red ball on both the occasion are the examples
of events which are independent.
(iii) Similar example can be given in playing cards 'getting an ace' and 'an ace' in two successive draws
from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards when the first drawn card is replaced in the pack before the
second is drawn. If it is not replaced the events become dependent or contingent.
Note:
1. Dependent/Independent events come from two different experiments while mutually exclusive
events come form the same experiment.
2. (i) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵) is generally used as a defining equation for independent events.
(ii) If 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent then 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵)
(iii) If A and B are independent then A and B ; 𝐴 and B ; A and B are also independent.
Proof:
(iii) Given 𝐴 and 𝐵 are independent ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑇. 𝑃. 𝑇. A and B are also independent i.e. ( A  B ) = P ( A ) .P ( B )
R.H.S. [1 − 𝑃(𝐴)][1 − 𝑃(𝐵)] = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵)
= 1 − [𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵)]
= 1– [𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)]
= 1– 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
= P ( A  B ) = L.H.S.]
Example:
(Two experiments) Throwing a die and a coin simultaneously.
𝐴: Getting an even number on die.
𝐵: Getting a head on coin.
Show that 𝐴 & 𝐵 are independent events.
Proof:
𝑆 = {1𝐻, 2𝐻. . . . . . .6𝐻, 1𝑇, 2𝑇. . . . . . . .6𝑇}
3 3 1
P ( A  B ) = & P( A) = ; P( B ) =
12 6 2
⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵)

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Independent Event:
 A B
If 𝐴 & 𝐵 are independent events then 𝑃   = 𝑃(𝐴) and 𝑃   = 𝑃(𝐵) and in this case multiplication
B  A
theorem 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) · 𝑃(𝐵).

Generalized form of Multiplication Theorem:

Suppose 𝑨𝟏 , 𝑨𝟐 , . . . . . . . . , 𝑨𝒎 be m events such that P( A1  A2  .....  Am )  0, then

 A   A   A4   Am 
P( A1  A2  .....  Am ) = P( A1 ) P  2  P  3  P   .......P  
 A1   A1 A2   A1 A2 A3   A1 A2 .... Am −1 
Illustration 28:
A die is thrown. If 𝐸 is the event 'the number appearing is a multiple of 3' and 𝐹 be the event 'the number
appearing is even' then find whether 𝐸 and 𝐹 are independent?
Solution:
We know that the sample space is 𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Now 𝐸 = {3,6}, 𝐹 = {2,4,6} and 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = {6}
2 1 3 1 1
Then 𝑃(𝐸) = = , 𝑃(𝐹) = = and 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) =
6 3 6 2 6
Clearly 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐸) · 𝑃(𝐹)
Hence 𝐸 and 𝐹 are independent events.
Illustration 29:
Three coins are tossed simultaneously. Consider the event 𝐸 'three heads or three tails', 𝐹 'at least two
heads' and 𝐺 'at most two heads'. Of the pairs (𝐸, 𝐹), (𝐸, 𝐺) and (𝐹, 𝐺), which are independent? which are
dependent?
Solution:
The sample space of the experiment is given by
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}
Clearly 𝐸 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇} , 𝐹 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻}
and 𝐺 = {𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}
Also 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻}, 𝐸 ∩ 𝐺 = {𝑇𝑇𝑇}, 𝐹 ∩ 𝐺 = {𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻}
2 1 4 1 7
Therefore 𝑃(𝐸) = = , 𝑃(𝐹) = = , 𝑃(𝐺) =
8 4 8 2 8
1 1 3
and 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = , 𝑃 (𝐸 ∩ 𝐺) = , 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐺) =
8 8 8
1 1 1 1 7 7
Also 𝑃(𝐸) · 𝑃(𝐹) =  = , 𝑃(𝐸) · 𝑃(𝐺) =  =
4 2 8 4 8 32
1 7 7
and 𝑃(𝐹) · 𝑃(𝐺) =  =
2 8 16
Thus 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐸) · 𝑃(𝐹)
𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐺) ≠ 𝑃(𝐸) · 𝑃(𝐺) and 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐺) ≠ 𝑃(𝐹) · 𝑃(𝐺)
Hence, the events (𝐸 and 𝐹) are independent, and the events (𝐸 and 𝐺) and (𝐹 and 𝐺) are dependent.

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Illustration 30:
𝐴 jar contains 10 white balls and 6 blue balls, all are of equal size. Two balls are drawn without replacement.
Find the probability that the second ball is white if it is known that the first is white.
Solution:
Let 𝐸1 be the event "the first ball drawn is white" and 𝐸2 be the event "the second ball drawn is white”
again.
10
Then 𝑃(𝐸1 ) =
16
Since 10 out of 10 + 6 balls are white. But, after one ball is chosen, there remain 9 white balls and 6 blue
balls. There fore the required probability is
10 9
 E2  P( E1  E2 ) 16 . 15 9 3
P  = = = =
 E1  P( E1 ) 10 15 5
16
Illustration 31:
There are four machines and it is known that exactly two of them are faulty. They are tested one by one, in
a random order till both the faulty machines are identified. The probability that only two tests are needed
is
1 1 1 1
(A) (B) (C) (D)
3 6 2 4
Solution:
The procedure ends in first two tests if either both are faulty or both are good. Therefore the probability is
= 𝑃(𝐺 ∩ 𝐺) + 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐹)
G F 2 1 1 1
= 𝑃(𝐺) · 𝑃   + 𝑃(𝐹) · 𝑃   = · + =
G F 4 3 3 3
Illustration 32:
On throwing a dice, 𝐴 = {1, 2, 3}; 𝐵 = {3, 4}; 𝐶 = {3, 4, 5} then
(i) 𝐴 & 𝐵 are independent events 𝑇/𝐹.
(ii) 𝐴 & 𝐶 are independent events 𝑇/𝐹.
(iii) 𝐶 & 𝐵 are mutually exclusive 𝑇/𝐹.
(iv) 𝐴 & 𝐵 are exhaustive 𝑇/𝐹.
Solution:
3 2
𝑛(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 1𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) =
6 6
𝑛(𝑠) = 6
3 2
(i) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 
6 6
1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = ∴ 𝐴 & 𝐵 are independent True.
6
1
(ii) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) =
6
3 3 1
𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐶) =  = Not independent events false.
6 6 4

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(iii) 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 = {3, 4}
𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ≠ 0 False
(iv) 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = {1, 2, 3, 4}
𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ≠ 𝑆 False
Illustration 33:
1 1
Let 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) = then find 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) if
2 3
(i) 𝐴 & 𝐵 are mutually exclusive
(ii) 𝐴 & 𝐵 are independent
Solution:
1 1
Let 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) = then find 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) if
2 3
(i) 𝐴 & 𝐵 are mutually exclusive
∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0
1 1 5
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = + =
2 3 6
(ii) 𝐴 & 𝐵 are independent
1 1 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = . =
2 3 6
1 1 1 5 1 4 2
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = + − = − = =
2 3 6 6 6 6 3
Illustration 34:
The probabilities that an anti air craft gun can hit an enemy plane at the 1𝑠𝑡 , 2𝑛𝑑 and third shot are
0.6, 0.7 & 0.1 respectively. Find the probability that gun hits the plane.
Solution:
𝐴 ∶ Hits in 1𝑠𝑡 shot
𝐵 ∶ Hits 2𝑛𝑑 shot
𝐶 ∶ Hits in 3𝑟𝑑 shot
Required probability = A + AB + ABC
𝑃(1𝑠𝑡 ) = 0.6 𝑃(2𝑛𝑑 ) = 0.7 𝑃(3𝑟𝑑 ) = 0.1
𝑃 = 1𝑠𝑡 time or 1𝑠𝑡 2𝑛𝑑 hit or 1𝑠𝑡 2𝑛𝑑 3𝑟𝑑 = 0.1 hit
= 0.6 + 0.4 × 0.7 + 0.4 × 0.3 × 0.1 = 0.6 + 0.28 + 0.012 = 0.892 Ans.
M-2: 𝑃 = 1 − (1𝑠𝑡 2𝑛𝑑 3𝑟𝑑 ) = 1 − 0.4 × 0.4 × 0.3 × 0.9 = 1 − 0.108 = 0.892
Illustration 35:
1
Probability that a teacher takes a surprise test is . If a student is absent for 2 days then find probability
3
that he misses:-
(i) Exactly one test
(ii) at least one test
Solution:
𝑇 : denotes probability of appearing in test
(i) T T +T T
1 2 2 1 4
 +  =
3 3 3 3 9

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(ii) T T +T T +T T
1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1
 +  +  = + +
3 3 3 3 3 3 7 9 9
M-2 : 𝑃 = 1– (𝑇𝑇)
2 2 5
1−  =
3 3 9
Illustration 36:
Three coins are tossed simultaneously. Consider the event 𝐸 ‘three heads or three tails’, 𝐹 'at least two
heads’ and 𝐺 'at most two heads’. Of the pairs (𝐸, 𝐹), (𝐸, 𝐺) and (𝐹, 𝐺), which are independent? which are
dependent?
Solution:
The sample space of the experiment is given by
𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}
Clearly 𝐸 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}, 𝐹 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻}
and 𝐺 = {𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇}
Also 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻}, 𝐸 ∩ 𝐺 = {𝑇𝑇𝑇}, 𝐹 ∩ 𝐺 = {𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻}
2 1 4 1 7
Therefore 𝑃(𝐸) = = , 𝑃(𝐸) = = , 𝑃(𝐺) =
8 4 8 2 8
1 1 3
and 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = , 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐺) = , 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐺) =
8 8 8
1 1 1 1 7 7
Also 𝑃(𝐸), 𝑃(𝐹) =  = , 𝑃(𝐸) · 𝑃(𝐺) =  =
4 2 8 4 8 32
1 7 7
and 𝑃(𝐹) . 𝑃(𝐺) =  =
2 8 16
Thus 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐸). 𝑃(𝐹)
𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐺) ≠ 𝑃(𝐸). 𝑃(𝐺)
and 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐺) ≠ 𝑃(𝐹). 𝑃(𝐺)
Hence, the events (𝐸 and 𝐹) are independent, and the events (𝐸 and 𝐺) and (𝐹 and 𝐺) are dependent.
Illustration 37:
Prove that if 𝐸 and F are independent events, then so are the events 𝐸 and 𝐹′.
Solution:
Since 𝐸 and 𝐹 are independent, we have
𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐸) . 𝑃(𝐹) …(1)
From the Venn diagram in figure, it is clear that 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 and 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹′ are mutually exclusive events and also
𝐸 = (𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) ∪ (𝐸 ∩ 𝐹′).
Therefore 𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) + 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹′) (𝐸′ ∩ 𝐹′ ) 𝐹
𝑆
𝐸
Or 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹′) = 𝑃(𝐸)– 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹)
= 𝑃(𝐸)– 𝑃(𝐸). 𝑃(𝐹) (by (1))
= 𝑃(𝐸) (1– 𝑃(𝐹))
= 𝑃(𝐸). 𝑃(𝐹′) (𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ′ ) (𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ) (𝐸′ ∩ 𝐹 )
Hence, 𝐸 and 𝐹′ are independent.

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Law of Total Probability Theorem:
Let 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , … … , 𝐸𝑛 be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, with non-zero probabilities, of a random
experiment. If 𝐴 be any arbitrary event of the sample space of the above random experiment with
𝑃(𝐴) > 0, then the probability of the occurrence of event 𝐴 can be given as
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸2 )+. . . . . . . . . . +𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐸𝑛 )

∴ P( A) = P( E1 ) P  A  + P( E2 ) P  A  + ........... + P( En ) P  A  or ; P( A) =  P( Ei )P  A 
n

 E1   E2   En  i =1  Ei 
Proof:
Let 𝑆 be the sample space of the random experiment.
Since 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , … … , 𝐸𝑛 are exhaustive, we have 𝑆 = 𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ∪ … … ∪ 𝐸𝑛 .
Now 𝐴 = 𝑆 ∩ 𝐴 = (𝐸1 ∪ 𝐸2 ∪ … … ∪ 𝐸𝑛 ) ∩ 𝐴
⇒ 𝐴 = (𝐸1 ∩ 𝐴) ∪ (𝐸2 ∩ 𝐴) ∪ … … ∪ (𝐸𝑛 ∩ 𝐴) …(i)
Since 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 , … … , 𝐸𝑛 are mutually exclusive, we have 𝐸𝑖 ∩ 𝐸𝑗 = 𝜙 for 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗
Now (𝐸𝑖 ∩ 𝐴) ∩ (𝐸𝑗 ∩ 𝐴) = (𝐸𝑖 ∩ 𝐸𝑗 ) ∩ 𝐴 = 𝜙 ∩ 𝐴 = 𝜙
∴ 𝐸1 ∩ 𝐴, 𝐸2 ∩ 𝐴, … … , 𝐸𝑛 ∩ 𝐴 are also mutually exclusive.
By using addition theorem, (i) implies
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ∩ 𝐴) + ⋯ … + 𝑃(𝐸𝑛 ∩ 𝐴)
 A  A  A
⇒ 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 )𝑃   +𝑃(𝐸2 )𝑃   + . . . . . . . + 𝑃(𝐸𝑛 )𝑃  
 E1   E2   En 
Remark:
In practical problems, it is found convenient to write as follows :
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐴 or 𝐸2 𝐴 or … … 𝐸𝑛 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐸2 𝐴) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐸𝑛 𝐴)
 A  A
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 )𝑃   + P( E2 ) 
 E1   E2 
Illustration 38:
A box contains three coins, one coin is fair, one coin is two-headed, and one coin is weighted so that the
probability of head appearing is 1/3. A coin is selected at random and tossed. Find the probability that (i)
head (ii) tail appears.
Solution:
Let 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 and 𝐸3 be the events of selecting at random first coin, second coin and third coin respectively.
1 1 1
∴ 𝑃(𝐸1 ) = , 𝑃(𝐸2 ) = and 𝑃(𝐸3 ) =
3 3 3
Let 𝐻 and 𝑇 be events of getting head and tail respectively.
H 1 T  1
∴ P  = , P  = (∵ First coin is fair)
 E1  2  E1  2
H T 
P   = 1, P   = 0 (∵ Second coin is two headed)
 E2   E2 

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(i) 𝑃(getting head) = 𝑃(𝐻) = 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐻 or 𝐸2 𝐻 or 𝐸3 𝐻)
= 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐸2 𝐻) + 𝑃(𝐸3 𝐻)
H H H
= 𝑃(𝐸1 ) 𝑃   + P( E2 ) P   + P( E3 ) P  
 E1   E2   E3 
1 1 1 1 1 11
=  + 1 +  =
3 2 3 3 3 18
(ii) 𝑃 (getting tail) = 𝑃(𝑇)
T  T 
= 𝑃(𝐸1 𝑇 or 𝐸3 𝑇) = 𝑃(𝐸1 𝑇) + 𝑃(𝐸3 𝑇) = 𝑃(𝐸1 )𝑃   +𝑃(𝐸3 )𝑃  
 E1   E3 
1 1 1 2 7
=  +  =
3 2 3 3 18
Illustration 39:
There are two bags. The first bag contains 5 white and 3 black balls and the second bag contains
3 white and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random from the first bag and are put into the second
bag, without nothing their colours. Then two balls are drawn from the second bag. Find the probability that
the balls drawn are white and black.
Solution:

5 White 3 White
3 Black 5 Black

Bag-I Bag-II

Let 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 and 𝐸3 be the events of transferring 2 white, 1 white and 1 black, 2 black balls respectively from
the first bag to the second bag.
5
C2 10 5
∴ 𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 8
= =
C2 28 14
5
C1  8C1 5  3 15
𝑃(𝐸2 ) = 8
= =
C2 28 28
3
C2 3
𝑃(𝐸3 ) = 8
=
C2 28
Let 𝐴 be the event of drawing one white and one black ball from the second bag.
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐴 or 𝐸2 𝐴 or 𝐸3 𝐴)
= 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐸2 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐸3 𝐴)
 A  A  A
= 𝑃(𝐸1 )𝑃   + P( E2 )P   + P( E3 )P  
 E1   E2   E3 
5 5 C1 5 C1 15 4 C1  6C1 3 3 C1 7 C1
=  10 +  10 +  10
14 C2 28 C2 28 C2
5 5 15 8 3 7 673
=  +  +  =
14 9 28 15 28 15 12600

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 JEE (Main + Advanced) : Mathematics
Illustration 40:
Two machines A and B produce respectively 60% and 40% of the total numbers of items of a factory. The
percentages of defective output of these machines are respectively 2% and 5%. If an item is selected at
random, what is the probability that the item is (i) defective (ii) non-defective?
Solution:
Let 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 be the events of drawing an item produced by machine 𝐴 and machine 𝐵 respectively.
Let 𝐴 be the event of selecting a defective item.
∴ 𝐴̄ represent the event of selecting a non-defective item.
We have
𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 60% ; 𝑃(𝐸2 ) = 40%
 A
P   = Probability that an item produced 𝐴 is defective = 2%
 E1 
 A
P   = Probability that an item produced by 𝐵 is defective = 5%
 E2 
(i) 𝑃(selected item is defective)
= 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐴 or 𝐸2 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐸2 𝐴)
 A  A
= 𝑃(𝐸1 )𝑃   + 𝑃(𝐸2 )   = (60%)(2%) + (40%) (5%)
 E1   E2 
60 2 40 5 320
=  +  = = 0.032
100 100 100 100 1000
(ii) 𝑃(selected item is non-defective)
= 𝑃(𝐴̄) = 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐴̄or𝐸2 𝐴̄) = 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐸2 𝐴)
 A  A
= 𝑃(𝐸1 )𝑃   + P( E3 )P  
 E1   E2 
= (60%) (98%) + (40%)(95%)
60 98 40 95 9680
=  +  = = 0.968
100 100 100 100 10000
Illustration 41:
Two sets of candidates are competing for the positions on the board of directors of a company. The
probabilities that the first and second sets will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. If the first set wins, the
probability of introducing a new product is 0.8, and the corresponding probability, if the second set wins
is 0.3. What is the probability that the new product will be introduced?
Solution:
Let 𝐴1 (𝐴2 ) denotes the event that first (second) set wins and let 𝐵 be the event that a new product is
introduced.
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = 0.6, 𝑃(𝐴2 ) = 0.4
B B
P   = 0.8, P   = 0.3
 A1   A2 
B  B
𝑃(𝐵) = P ( B  A1 ) + P ( B  A2 ) = P ( A1 ) . P   + P ( A2 ) P   .
 A1   A2 
= 0.6 × 0.8 + 0.4 × 0.3 = 0.6

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Probability
Venn Diagram for Three Events
𝑨 𝑩

𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶ҧ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴ҧ ∩ 𝐶ҧ
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵ത ∩ 𝐶ҧ

𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶

𝐴 ∩ 𝐶 ∩ 𝐵ത 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 ∩ 𝐴ҧ

𝐶 ∩ 𝐴ҧ ∩ 𝐵ത
∩
𝐴ҧ ∩ 𝐵ത ∩ 𝐶ҧ
𝑪

The addition theorem can be extended when three events are associated with the experiment.
If 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 are three events then
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) denotes the sum of probabilities of all the sample points in (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) or probability of
occurrence of atleast one of the events.
(i) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶)– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)

𝑆
𝐴 𝐵

Proof:
Let 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 = 𝐷
L.H.S. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐷)– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶)– 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ (𝐵 ∩ 𝐶))]
 P = (𝐴)– 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)– [𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) ∪ (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶)]
 P = (𝐴)– 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)– [𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + (𝐴 ∩ 𝐶)– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)]
∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) =  P( A) −  P( A  B ) + P( A  B  C )
(ii) 𝑃 (occurrence of exactly one of the events)
= 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶)– 2[𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴)] + 3𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
𝑆
𝐴 𝐵

( A B C ) ( A  B C ) ( A  B C )
𝐶

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 JEE (Main + Advanced) : Mathematics
(iii) 𝑃 (occurrence of exactly two of the events)
= 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴)– 3𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)

𝐴 𝐵

( A B C ) ( A  B C) ( A B C )
𝐶

(iv) 𝑃 (occurrence of at least two of the events)

= 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) + 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴)– 2𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)

𝑆
𝐴 𝐵

( A B C ) ( A B C) ( A  B C) ( A B C)

𝐶

Note:
(A) If 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 are three pair wise mutually exclusive ⇒ they are mutually exclusive however if 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 are
mutually exclusive 
 they are pair wise mutually exclusive

𝐴 𝐵
𝐴 𝐵

𝐶 𝐶

ME 
 pair wise ME Pair wise ME ⇒ ME
(B) However, if 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 are pair wise independent 
 they are independent. In fact for 3 events
𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 to be independent they must be
(i) pairwise
(ii) mutually independent, mathematically
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵); 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐵). 𝑃(𝐶); 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐶). 𝑃(𝐴)
and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵). 𝑃(𝐶)
for 𝑛 independent events, the total number of conditions would be
𝑛𝐶2 +𝑛 𝐶3 +. . . . . . . . . . +𝑛 𝐶𝑛 = 2𝑛 − 𝑛 − 1

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Probability
Illustration 42:
There are 3 clubs 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 in a town with 40, 50 & 60 members respectively. 10 people are members of
3 clubs, 70 are members of in only one club. A member is randomly selected then find the probability that
he is member of exactly 2 clubs.
Solution:
𝐴 𝐵 𝐶
40 50 60
𝐴 𝐵
𝑥 + 𝑦 + 𝑧 = 70 ...(1) 𝑥 𝑎 𝑦
𝑥 + 𝑎 + 𝑏 = 30 ...(2) 10
𝑏 𝑐
𝑦 + 𝑎 + 𝑐 = 40 ...(3) 𝑍 𝐶
𝑧 + 𝑏 + 𝑐 = 50 ...(4)
Add equation (2), (3) & (4),
𝑥 + 𝑦 + 𝑧 + 2(𝑎 + 𝑏 + 𝑐) = 120
∴ 𝑎 + 𝑏 + 𝑐 = 25
a+b+c 25 5
P= = =
x + a + 10 + y + b + c + z 105 21
Illustration 43:
1 1 1
Three person 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 independently fire at target. Suppose P( A) = , P( B ) , P(C ) = denotes the
6 4 3
probabilities of hitting the target then find probability
(i) exactly one of them hits the target.
(ii) exactly 2 of them hits the target.
(iii) at least one of them hits the target
Solution:
(i) 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃 = 𝐴 & 𝐵̄ & 𝐶̄ or 𝐴̄ & 𝐵 & 𝐶̄ or 𝐴̄ & 𝐵̄ & 𝐶
1 3 2 5 1 2 5 3 1
=   +   +  
6 4 3 6 4 3 6 4 3
(ii) 𝑃 = 𝐴𝐵𝐶̄ or 𝐴𝐵̄𝐶 or 𝐴̄𝐵𝐶
1 1 2 1 3 1 5 1 1
=   +   +  
6 4 3 6 4 3 6 4 3
(iii) 𝑃 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴̄𝐵̄𝐶̄ )
5 3 2 5 7
=1−    1− =
6 4 3 12 12
Illustration 44:
1 1 1
Three person 𝐴𝐵𝐶 independently fire at target. Suppose 𝑃(𝐴) = , 𝑃(𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐶) = , denotes the
6 4 3
probabilities of hitting the target. If the target is hit only once then find probability that it was man A.

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 JEE (Main + Advanced) : Mathematics
Solution:
1 1 1
𝑃(𝐴) = ; 𝑃(𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐶) = , denote the probabilities of hitting the target.
6 4 3
1 1 1
𝑃(𝐴) = ; 𝑃(𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐶) =
6 4 3
𝑃(𝐷) = 𝑃(hit the target exactly one time) (𝐷 denotes probability of hitting target once)
1 3 2
 
P( A  D ) ABC 6 4 3
𝑃(𝐴/𝐷) = = =
P( D ) ABC or ABC or ABC 1 3 2 5 1 2 5 3 2
  +   +  
6 4 3 6 4 3 6 4 3
Illustration 45:
𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 are three newspapers from a city. 25% of the population reads 𝐴, 20% reads 𝐵, 15% reads
𝐶,16% reads both 𝐴 and 𝐵, 10% reads both 𝐵 and 𝐶, 8% reads both 𝐴 and 𝐶 and 4% reads all the three.
Find the percentage of the population who read atleast one of 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶.
Solution:
We are given that
25 20 15
P ( A) = , P ( B) = , P (C ) =
100 100 100
16 10 8 4
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = , 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = , 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) = and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) =
100 100 100 100
We have to find 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶). We can use the formula
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶)– 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)– 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)– 𝑃(𝐶 ∩ 𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
1 30
= (25 + 20 + 15 − 16 − 10 − 8 + 4) =
100 100
Thus 30% of the people read at least one of the newspapers.

Probabilities Through Statistical (Stochastic) Tree Diagram:

These tree diagrams are generally drawn by economist and give a simple approach to solve a problem.
Illustration 46:
A bag initially contains 1 red ball and 2 blue balls. 𝐴 trial consists of selecting a ball at random, noting its
colour and replacing it together with an additional ball of the same colour. Given that three trials are made,
draw a tree diagram illustrating the various probabilities. Hence, or otherwise, find the probability that:
(A) At least one blue ball is drawn
(B) Exactly one blue ball is drawn
Solution:
𝑅
𝑅– 3𝑅 2𝐵
𝐵
𝑅– 2𝑅 2𝐵
𝑅
1𝑅 𝐵– 2𝑅 3𝐵
𝐵
Start
𝑅
2𝐵 𝑅– 2𝑅 3𝐵
𝐵
𝐵– 1𝑅 3𝐵
𝑅
𝐵– 1𝑅 4𝐵
𝐵

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Probability
Calculations:
1 1 3 1 9
P( A) = 1 − P( RRR ) = 1 − . . = 1 − =
3 2 5 10 10
1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 3 1
𝑃(exactly one Blue) = . . + . . + . . = + + = =
3 2 5 3 2 5 3 4 5 15 15 15 15 5
1 1 3 1
. .
  ( ) 3 2 5 1
= 10 =
RRR P RRR
P (C ) = P   = =
 ( RRR  BBB )  P( RRR ) + P( BBB ) 1 . 1 . 3 + 2 . 3 . 4 1 + 4 5
3 2 5 3 4 5 10 10
Illustration 47: 𝑇
1/2
𝐴: box contains three coins 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶
𝐴
𝐴: Normal coin; 𝐵: Double Headed (𝐷𝐻) coin;
(𝑁. 𝐶. ) 1/2
1 1/3
𝐶: 𝑎 weighted coin so that 𝑃(𝐻) = 𝐻
3
A coin is randomly selected & tossed 1/3 1
Start 𝐵 𝐻
(A) Find the probability that head appears.
(𝐷. 𝐻. )
(B) If head appear find the probability that it is a
normal coin 𝑃(𝐴/𝐻) 1/3 𝑇
2/3
(C) Find the probability that tail appears.
𝐶
(D) If tail appears, find the probability that it is a 1/3
(𝑊. 𝐶. )
weighted coin 𝑃(𝐶/𝑇) 𝐻
Solution:
1 1 1 1 1 11
(A) 𝑃(𝐻) = . + .1 + . =
3 2 3 3 3 18
1 1
.
 A  P( A  B ) 3 2 3
(B) P  = = =
H P() 11 11
18
1 1 1 1 2 7
(C) 𝑃(𝑇) = . + .0 + . =
3 2 3 3 3 18
11 7
Or 1– 𝑃(𝐻) = 1– =
18 18
1 2
.
 C  P(C  T ) 3 3 4
(D) P  = = =
T  P(T ) 7 7
18
Illustration 48:
5 coins 𝐷𝐻 denoted by say 𝑋
A box contains 10 coins 3 coins 𝐷𝐻 denoted by say 𝑌
2 coins normal denoted by 𝑍

A coin is dream at random from the box and tossed, fall head wise. Find the probability that it was a normal
coin.

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 JEE (Main + Advanced) : Mathematics
Solution:

Z  P( H  Z )
P  = P(H)
H 
1 𝐻

𝐷𝐻 𝑋 0
5/10 T
0 𝐻
3/10
Start 𝑌 1
𝐷𝑇
𝑇
𝑁. 𝐶. 1/2 𝐻
2/10
𝑍 1/2
𝑇

2 1
.
5 2−1 6 10 2 1
𝑃(𝐻) = .1 + = = =
10 10 − 2 10 6 6
10

BAYE’s Theorem (Part-1):

If an event 𝐴 can occur only with one of the 𝑛 mutually exclusive and exhaustive events 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , . . . . 𝐵𝑛 & the
probabilities 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵1 ), 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵2 ). . . 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵𝑛 ) are known then,
P ( Bi ). P ( A / Bi ) 𝐵3
𝐵𝑛 1

𝑃(𝐵𝑖 /𝐴) = n
𝐵1 𝐵2
 P ( Bi ). P ( A / Bi )
i =1
𝐴
𝐵𝑛
Explanation:
𝐴 ≡ event what we have;
𝐵𝑖 ≡ event what we want & remaining are alternative events.
Now, 𝑃(𝐴𝐵𝑖 ) = 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 /𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ). 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵𝑖 )
P ( Bi ) . P ( A / Bi ) P ( Bi ) . P ( A / Bi )
P ( Bi / A) = =
P ( A) n

 P ( AB )
i =1
i

P ( Bi ) . P ( A / Bi )
P ( Bi / A) = n

 P(B ) . P ( A / B )
i =1
i i

Illustration 49:
Given three identical boxes I, II and III, each containing two coins. In box I, both coins are gold coins, in box
II, both are silver coins and in the box III, there is one gold and one silver coin. A person chooses a box at
random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the probability that the other coin in the box is
also of gold?

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Probability
Solution:
Let 𝐸1 , 𝐸2 and 𝐸3 be the events that boxes I, II and III are chosen, respectively.
Then
1
P( E1 ) = P( E2 ) = P( E3 ) =
3
Also, let 𝐴 be the event that 'the coin drawn is of gold'
Then
2
𝑃(𝐴|𝐸1 ) = 𝑃(𝑎 gold coin from box I) = =1
2
𝑃(𝐴|𝐸2 ) = 𝑃(𝑎 gold coin from box II) = 0
1
𝑃(𝐴|𝐸3 ) = 𝑃(𝑎 gold coin from box III) =
2
Now, the probability that the other coin in the box is of gold
= the probability that gold coin is drawn from the box I.
= 𝑃(𝐸1 |𝐴)
By Baye's theorem, we know that
P( E1 )P( A | E1 )
P( E1 | A) =
P( E1 )P( A | E1 ) + P( E2 )P( A | E2 ) + P( E3 )P( A | E3 )
1
1
3 2
= =
1 1 1 1 3
1 +  0 + 
3 3 3 2
BAYE’s Theorem (Part-2):
Illustration 50:
In a factory which manufactures bolts, machines 𝐴, 𝐵 and 𝐶 manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40%
of the bolts. Of their outputs, 5, 4 and 2 percent are respectively defective bolts. 𝐴 bolt is drawn at random
from the product and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it is manufactured by the
machine 𝐵?
Solution:
Let events 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , 𝐵3 be the following:
𝐵1 : the bolt is manufactured by machine 𝐴
𝐵2 ∶the bolt is manufactured by machine 𝐵
𝐵3 ∶the bolt is manufactured by machine 𝐶
Clearly, 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , 𝐵3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and hence, they represent a partition of the
sample space.
Let the event 𝐸 be ' the bolt is defective'.
The event 𝐸 occurs with 𝐵1 or with 𝐵2 or with 𝐵3 .
Given that 𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 25% = 0.25, 𝑃(𝐵2 ) = 0.35 and 𝑃(𝐵3 ) = 0.40
Again 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵1 ) = Probability that the bolt drawn is defective given that it is manufactured by machine
𝐴 = 5% = 0.05.
Similarly, 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵2 ) = 0.04, 𝑃(𝐸|𝐵3 ) = 0.02.
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Hence, by Baye's Theorem, we have
P( B2 )P( E | B2 )
P( B2 | E ) =
P( B1 )P( E | B1 ) + P( B2 )P( E | B2 ) + P( B3 )P( E | B3 )
0.35  0.04 0.0140 28
= = =
0.25  0.05 + 0.35  0.04 + 0.40  0.02 0.0345 69

Illustration 51:
A bag 𝐴 contains 2 white and 3 red balls and a bag 𝐵 contains 4 white and 5 red balls. One ball is drawn at
random from one of the bags and it is found to be red. Find the probability that it was drawn from the bag 𝐵.
Solution:
Let
𝐸1 =The event of ball being drawn from bag 𝐴
𝐸2 = The event of ball being drawn from bag 𝐵.
𝐸 = The event of ball being red.
Since, both the bags are equally likely to be selected, therefore
1 3 5
P ( E1 ) = P ( E2 ) = and P ( E | E1 ) = and P ( E | E2 ) =
2 5 9
1 5
P ( E2 ) P( E | E2 ) 
2 9 25
∴ Required probability P ( E2 | E ) = = =
P ( E1 ) .P( E | E1 ) + P ( E2 ) P( E | E2 ) 1 3 1 5 52
 + 
2 5 2 9
Illustration 52:
In a test an examinee either guesses or copies or knows the answer to a multiple choice question with four
1 1
choices. The probability that he makes a guess is and the probability that he copies the answer is .
3 6
1
The probability that his answer is correct given that he copied it, is . Find the probability that he knew
8
the answer to the question given that he correctly answered it.
Solution:
Let 𝐴1 be the event that the examinee guesses that answer; 𝐴2 the event that he copies the answer and 𝐴3
the event that he knows the answer. Also let 𝐴 be the event that he answers correctly. Then as given, we
have
1 1 1 1 1
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = , 𝑃(𝐴2 ) = , 𝑃(𝐴3 ) = 1– − =
3 6 3 6 2
[We have assumed here that the events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 and 𝐴3 are mutually exclusive and totally exhaustive.]
1 1
Now 𝑃(𝐴/𝐴1 ) = , P( A / A 2 ) = (as given)
4 8
gain it is reasonable to take the probability of answering correctly given that he knows the answer as 1, that is,
𝑃(𝐴/𝐴3 ) = 1
We have to find 𝑃(𝐴3 /𝐴).
By Baye's theorem, we have
P( A3 )P( A / A3 ) (1/2).1
𝑃(𝐴3 /𝐴) = =
P( A1 )P( A / A1 ) + P( A2 )P( A / A2 ) + ( A3 )P( A / A3 ) (1/3)(1/ 4) + (1/6)(1/ 8) + (1/2).1

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Probability
Illustration 53:
Bag Red Ball Green ball
A 1 9
B 0 10
9 balls are transferred from 𝐴 to 𝐵 & then 9 balls are transferred from 𝐵 to 𝐴 then find probability that red
ball is still in Bag 𝐴.
Solution:
𝑛(𝐹): red ball in Bag 𝐴.
Initially transferred from 𝐴 to 𝐵: 1𝑅 + 8𝐺 or 9𝐺
Now, number of balls in bag 𝐵: 1𝑅 + 18𝐺 or Zero 𝑅 + 19𝐺
Later: Balls transferred from 𝐵 to 𝐴: 1𝑅 + 8𝐺 or 9𝐺
9𝐺

𝐴 1𝑅
𝐵 10𝐺
9𝐺

9𝐺
9 19
C9 C
P= 10
 19 9 ...(1)
C9 C9
or
8𝐺
1𝑅

𝐴 1𝑅
𝐵 10𝐺
9𝐺

9𝐺 or 8𝐺 1𝑅
C8  C1
9 1
C8  C1
18 1
P= 10
 19
...(2)
C9 C9
Equation (1) + (2)
1 9 9 100 10
= +  = =
10 10 19 190 19

Probability Distribution
Random Variable:
Random variables are of two types:
(i) Discreate random variable.
(ii) Continuous random variables.
(i) A random variable is called a discrete random variable if it can take only finitely many values. For
example, in the experiment of drawing three cards from a pack of playing cards, the random variable
“number of kings drawn” is a discrete random variable taking value either 0 or 1 or 2 and 3.
(ii) A random variable is called a continuous random variable if it can take any value between certain
limits. For example, height, weight of students in a class are continuous random variables.

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Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable:
Let 𝑥 "be a discrete random variable assuming values" 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , 𝑥3 , … … , 𝑥𝑛 corresponding to the various
outcomes of a random experiment. If the probability of occurrence of 𝑥 = 𝑥𝑖 is 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) = 𝑝𝑖 , 1 ≤ 𝑖 ≤ 𝑛 such
that
𝑝1 + 𝑝2 + 𝑝3 + ⋯ + 𝑝𝑛 =1,
Then the function, 𝑃(𝑥𝑖 ) = 𝑃𝑖 , 1 ≤ 𝑖 ≤ 𝑛 "is called the probability function of the random variable" 𝑥 and
the set
{𝑃(𝑥1 ), 𝑃(𝑥2 ), 𝑃(𝑥3 ), … … , 𝑃(𝑥𝑛 )} "is called the probability distribution of " 𝑥.
Illustration 54:
Three balls are drawn are by one without replacement from a bag containing 5 white and 4 red balls. Find
the probability distribution of the number of red balls drawn.
Solution:
Let 𝑥 denote the discrete random variable “number of red balls”.
∴ The possible values of 𝑥 are 0, 1, 2, 3. 4
Let 𝑅𝑖 "be the event of drawing a red ball from the bag in the ith draw", 𝑖 = 1,2,3.
 R   R  5 4 3 60 5
𝑃(𝑥 = 0) = P( R1 R2 R3 ) = P( R1 )P  2  P  3  =   = =
 R1   R1 R2  9 8 7 504 42
𝑃(𝑥– 1) = P( R1 R2 R3 or R1 R2 R3 or R1 R2 R3 )

R   R  P( R1 ) R   R 
= 𝑃(𝑅1 )  2  P  3  + + P( R1 )P  2  P  3 
 R1   R1 R2  P  R2  P  R3   R1   R1 R2 
   
 R1   R1 R2 
4 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 240 10
=   +   +   = =
9 8 7 9 8 7 9 8 7 504 21
𝑃(𝑥 = 2) = P( R1 R2 R3 or R1 R2 R3 or R1 R2 R3 )

R   R  R   R  R   R 
= 𝑃(𝑅1 ) P  2  P  3  + P( R1 ) P  2  P  3  + P( R1 ) P  2  P  3 
 R1   R1 R2   R1   R1 R2   R1   R1 R2 
4 3 5 4 5 3 5 4 3 180 5
=   +   +   = =
9 8 7 9 8 7 9 8 7 504 14
 R   R  4 3 2 24 1
𝑃(𝑥 = 3) = 𝑃(𝑅1 𝑅2 𝑅3 ) = 𝑅(𝑅1 )𝑃  2  P  3  =   = =
 R1   R1 R2  9 8 7 504 21

x 0 1 2 3
The required probability distribution is 5 10 5 1
P( x )
42 21 14 21

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Probability
Mean and Variance of a Probability Distribution:
(1) Mean:-
If a random variable 𝑋 assumes the values 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … … , 𝑥3 with probabilities 𝑝1 , 𝑝2 , … … , 𝑝𝑛
respectively then the mean of 𝑋 is defined by

Random variable(x i ) Probability(pi ) pi x i

x1 p1 p1 x1
x2 p2 p2 x2

xn pn pn xn
n

px i i n
n 
Then mean (𝜇) = i =1
n
=  xi pi  pi = 1
 i =1 
p
i =1
i
i =1

(2) Variance:
n n n
2 =  pi ( xi −  )2 =  pi ( xi2 − 2xi + 2 ) =  ( pi xi2 − 2pi xi + pi 2 )
i =1 i =1 i =1

n n n n
=  pi xi2 − 2 pi xi + 2  pi =  pi xi2 − 2
i =1 i =1 i =1 i =1

(3) Standard Deviation:

𝑆𝐷 = + 2

xi 1 2 3 4 5 6
Ex.
Pi 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1

x1 P1 + x2 P2 + x3 P3 + x4 P4 + x5 P5 + x6 P6
Mean =
P1 + P2 + P3 + P4 + P5 + P6
0.1 + 0.4 + 0.3 + 1.2 + 1 + 0.6
=
1
x = 3.6
Illustration 55:
Two bad eggs are accidently mixed with 10 good eggs 3 eggs are drawn simultaneously from the basket.
Find the mean and variance of the number of bad eggs drawn.
Solution:
10
x =0 C3 10.9.8 6
= 12
= =
P(0) C3 12.11.10 11
𝑥=1
2
C1  10C2 9
𝑃(1) = 12
=
C3 22

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xi pi pi xi
6
0 0
11
9 9
1
22 22
1 2
2
22 22
𝑥=2
2
C2 . 10C1 10.6 1
𝑃(2) = 12 = =
C3 12.11.10 22
11 1
𝜇 =  pi xi = =
22 2
9 4
∴  pi xi2 = 0 + +
22 22
13 1 15
𝜎 2 =  pi xi2 − 2 = − =
22 4 44

Mathematical Expectation (Practical use of Probability in Day-to-Day Life):

It is worthwhile indicating that if ‘𝑃’ represents a person’s chance of success in any venture and ‘𝑀‘ the
sum of money which he will receive in case of success, then the sum of money denoted by ‘𝑃 · 𝑀’ is called
his expectation.
Illustration 56:
Two players of equal skill 𝐴 and 𝐵 are playing a game. They leave off playing (due to some force majeure
conditions) when 𝐴 wants 3 points and 𝐵 wants 2 to win. If the prize money is 𝑅𝑠. 16000. How can the
referee divide the money in a fair way.
Solution:
Since, 𝐴 wins if he scores 3 points before 𝐵 scores 2.
1
Probability of 𝐴’𝑠 scoring a point = Probability of 𝐵’𝑠 scoring a point =
2
Hence, required probability that 𝐴 succeeds
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5
= . . + . . . + . . . + . . . =
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 16
5 11
Probability that 𝐵 succeeds = 1 − =
16 16
5
∴ 𝐴’𝑠 expectation =  16000 = 5000
16
11
𝐵’𝑠 expectation =  16000 = 11000
16
Illustration 57:
4 Players 𝑃𝑖 = 𝑖 = 1, 2, 3, 4 take part in a tournament, where there is only one winner & chance of 𝑃𝑖 being
winner is proportional to 𝑖. If prize money is 𝑅𝑠. 10,000 then find amount which the players can expect.

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Probability
Solution:
𝑃1 , 𝑃2 , 𝑃3 , 𝑃4
𝑃(𝑃1 ) + 𝑃(𝑃2 ) + 𝑃(𝑃3 ) + 𝑃(𝑃4 ) = 1
𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 3𝑘 + 4𝑘 = 1
1
𝑘− =
10
1 1
𝑃(𝑃1 ) = 𝑃1 :  10,000 = 1000
10 10
2 2
P( P2 ) = 𝑃2 :  10,000  2000
10 10
3 3
𝑃(𝑃3 ) = 𝑃3 :  10,000  3000
10 10
4 4
𝑃(𝑃4 ) = 𝑃4 :  10,000  4000
10 10

Binomial Probability Distribution:

Suppose that we have an experiment such as tossing a coin or die repeatedly or choosing a marble from an
urn repeatedly. Each toss or selection is called a trial. In any single trial there will be a probability
associated with a particular event such as head on the coin, 4 on the die, or selection of a red marble. In
some cases this probability will not change from one trial to the next (as in tossing a coin or die). Such trials
are then said to be independent and are often called Bernoulli trials after James Bernoulli who investigated
them at the end of the seventeenth century.
Definition :
Trials of a random experiment are called Bernoulli trials, if they satisfy the following conditions:
(i) There should be a finite number of trials.
(ii) The trials should be independent.
(iii) Each trial has exactly two outcomes: success or failure.
(iv) The probability of success remains the same in each trial.
For Independent Trials
Experiment

n independent trials (Bernoulli's trials)

If each of these trails have

two possible outcomes

Success 𝑝+𝑞 =1 Failure

𝑃(𝑆) = 𝑝 𝑃(𝐹) = 𝑞

Then, P(r successes) = nCr pr qn–r

Proof:
Consider the compound event where ′𝑟′ successes are in succession and (𝑛– 𝑟) failures are in succession.
 
P  SSS ....S FFF .....F  = P( S ).P( S )....P( S ) P( F ).P( F ).....P( F ) = p r .q n − r
 
 r ( n−r )  r times ( n − r ) times

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 JEE (Main + Advanced) : Mathematics
n!
But these 𝑟 successes and (𝑛– 𝑟) failures can be arranged in = n Cr ways and in each arrangement
r !( n − r )!
the probability will be 𝑝𝑟 . 𝑞 𝑛 𝑟

Hence total pr . = p ( r ) =n Cr pr q n−r ...(i)

Recurrence relation
p ( r + 1) =n C r +1 pr +1. qn−r −1
P( r + 1) n Cr +1 p n − r p
∴ = n =
P( r ) Cr q r + 1 1 − p
n−r p
∴ P( r + 1) = . P( r ) ...(ii)
r +1 1− p
Equation (ii) is used for completely the probabilities of 𝑃(1); 𝑃(2); 𝑃(3); . . .. etc. once 𝑃(0) is determined.
Case – I
Probability of success r times out of n total trials
= p ( r ) =n Cr pr qn−r
Case – II
= 𝑃(≥ 𝑟) = Probability of success at least 𝑟 times out of total 𝑛 trials
𝑛𝐶𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛 𝑟 +𝑛 𝐶𝑟+1 𝑝𝑟+1 𝑞 𝑛 𝑟 1 +. . . . +𝑛 𝐶𝑛 𝑝𝑛
Case – III
= 𝑃(≤ 𝑟) =Probability of success at most ‘𝑟’ times out of total n tirals
𝑛𝐶0 𝑞 𝑛 +𝑛 𝐶1 𝑝1 𝑞 𝑛 1 +𝑛 𝐶2 𝑝2 𝑞 𝑛 2 +. . . . . . +𝑛 𝐶𝑟 𝑝𝑟 𝑞 𝑛 𝑟

Illustration 58:
A pair of dice is thrown 6 times, getting a doublet is considered a success. Compute the probability of
(i) no success (ii) exactly one success
(iii) at least one success (iv) at most one success
Solution:
Total sample spaces are = 36
In which six doublets then
3 1 1 5
P= = ; q =1− =
36 6 6 6
(i) No success for 𝑟 = 0
0 6 6
1 5 5
∴ 𝑝(0) = 6 C0     =  
6 6 6
(ii) Exactly one success for r = 1
1 5 5
1 5 5
∴ 𝑝(1) = 6 C1     =  
6 6 6
(iii) For at least are success for 𝑟 = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
5 2 4 3 3 4 2
 1  5  1 5 1 5 1  5
∴ 6 Cr p r q6− r =6 C1    + 6C2     + 6C3     +6 C4    
6
   6 6 6
    6 6
    6 6
5 1 6 0
6
1 5 1 5

r =1
+ 6C5     + 6C6    
6 6 6 6

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Probability
(iv) For at most one success for 𝑟 = 0, 1
6 6− r 0 6 5
1
1 5 1 5  1  5 

r =0
6
Cr    
6 6
= 6C0     + 6C1   
6 6  6  6 
Illustration 59:
In a hurdle race a man has to clear 9 hurdles. Probability that he clears a hurdle 2/3 and the probability
that he knocks down the hurdle is 1/3. Find the probability that he knocks down fewer than 2 hurdles.
Solution:
For probability that he knocks down fewer than two hurdles for 𝑟 = 0, 1
1 2
where 𝑝 = , q =
3 3
r 9− r 0 9 1 8
1
1 2 1 2 1  2
∴ 
r =0
9
Cr    
3 3
= 9 C0     + 9C1    
3 3 3 3
Illustration 60:
A drunkard takes a step forward or backward. The probability that he takes a step forward is
0.4. Find the probability that at the end of 11 steps he is one step away from the starting point.
Solution:
At the end of 11 steps he is one step away from the starting point by two ways
(i) Man has taken 6 steps forward and 5 steps backward
(ii) Man has taken 6 steps backward and 6 steps forward
2
Here 𝑝 = probability of forward =
5
3
𝑞 = probability of backward =
5
6 5 5 6
2 3 2 3
∴ Probability = C6     +11 C5    
11

5 5 5 5

Illustration 61:
A coin is tossed 𝑛 times: What is the chance that the head will present itself an odd number of times?
Solution:
In one throw of a coin, the number of possible ways is 2 since either head (𝐻) or tail (𝑇) may appear. In
two throws of a coin, the total no. of ways in 2 × 2 = 22 , since corresponding to each way of the first coin
there are 2 ways of second. Similarly in three throws of a coin, the number of ways is 23 and thus in n
throws, the number of total ways = 2𝑛 .
The favourable no. of ways =the no. of ways in which head will occur once or thrice or 5 times, and so on.
= nC1 + nC3 + nC5 ...... = 2n−1

2n −1 1
Hence required probability P = = .
2n 2

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 JEE (Main + Advanced) : Mathematics
Geometrical Probability
(1) One-Dimensional Probability:
favourable length
P=
total length
𝑙
𝑃
𝐿
(2) Two-Dimensional Probability:

favourable area 𝐴
P=
total area
(3) Three-Dimensional Probability:

favourable volume 𝑉
P=
total volume
Illustration 62:
A point is taken inside a circle of radius 𝑟 find the probability that the point is closer to the centre as
compared to circumference.
Solution:
𝑛(𝑠) = 𝜋𝑟2
2 𝑟/2
r
𝑛(𝐴) =   
2 𝑟
2
r
 
2 1
𝑃 =  2 =
r 4
Illustration 63:
𝐴 point is selected random inside a equilateral triangle whose length of side is 3. Find the probability that
its distance from any corner is greater than 1.
Solution:
r 2
Area of sector =
2
3
𝑛(𝑠) = .9
4
3 1.1 
𝑛(𝐴) = . 9 −3 .
4 2 3

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Probability

3 
. 9−
∴ 𝑃(𝐴) = 4 2 = 1 − 2
3 9 3
.9
4
Illustration 64:
A sphere of radius 𝑟 is circumscribed about 𝑎 cube. Find the probability that 𝑎 point lies in the sphere but
out side the cube.
Solution:
3
4 3  2r 
r − 
fav. volume 3  3  =1− 2 .
P= =
total volume 4 3 3
r
3
Illustration 65:
𝐴 stick of length 𝑙 is broken into three parts find the probability that these three parts from a triangle.
Solution:
𝑙
𝑥 𝑦 𝑧
𝑥 > 0 𝑦 > 0, 𝑙– (𝑥 + 𝑦) > 0 𝑧 = 𝑙– (𝑥 + 𝑦)
For a triangle sum of two sides should be greater than third side
𝑙

𝑙/2

𝑙/2 𝑙/2

1
𝑥 + 𝑦 > 𝑙– (𝑥 + 𝑦) 𝑥 + 𝑦 > …(i)
2
1
𝑥 + 𝑙– (𝑥 + 𝑦) > 𝑦 𝑙 > 2𝑦 𝑦 < …(ii)
2
1
Similarly, 𝑥 < ...(iii)
2
1 1 1
 
1
So required probability = 2 2 2 =
1 4
11
2

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