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Chapter 3 - Risk and Return - Lesson

Chapter 3 discusses the concepts of risk and return in investments, focusing on how to determine returns and rates of return on assets and portfolios. It covers the components of return, methods for calculating average returns, and the relationship between risk and return, including risk measurement techniques such as standard deviation and variance. The chapter emphasizes the importance of understanding both individual asset risk and portfolio risk for effective investment decision-making.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
2 views38 pages

Chapter 3 - Risk and Return - Lesson

Chapter 3 discusses the concepts of risk and return in investments, focusing on how to determine returns and rates of return on assets and portfolios. It covers the components of return, methods for calculating average returns, and the relationship between risk and return, including risk measurement techniques such as standard deviation and variance. The chapter emphasizes the importance of understanding both individual asset risk and portfolio risk for effective investment decision-making.

Uploaded by

hai uyen
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Chapter 3.

Risk & Return 2023

CHAPTER 3.
RISK & RETURN

LỢI NHUẬN & RỦI RO

LEARNING OBJECT

▪ Understand and determine returns and rates of return on assets and portfolios

▪ Identify asset risk and portfolio risk

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 1
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3. RETURN AND RISK

3.1. Return on an asset

3.2. Risk of an asset

3.3. Return and risk of an investment portfolio

3.1. RETURN ON AN ASSET

3.1.1. Return

3.1.2. Rate of Return

3.1.3. Average Returns

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 2
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.1.1. Return
Suppose you buy an asset, your gain (or loss) from that investment ia called the return on
your investment. This return will usually two components.

• First, you may receive some directly while you own the investment. This is called the
income component of your return

• Second, the value of the asset you purchase will change. In case of, you have a capital
gain (or capital loss) on your investment.

(Rose & [Link], 2018, p. 334)

3.1.1. Return

Investing in equity, a shareholder receives the return of the business, including:

• Dividend is the amount of cash received at the end of the year.

• The return from investing in stocks is called capital gain or capital loss.

The return is a measure of the performance of an investment, it depends on:

▪ Size of the investment

▪ Investment time

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 3
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.1.2. Rate of Return


The return is expressed in relative terms called rate of return.

The rate of return is the rate of return received on the invested capital. The return on equity
securities is equal to the dividend yield plus the capital gain/loss ratio.

𝐃𝐧 𝟏 𝐏𝐧 − 𝐏𝒏 𝐃𝐧 𝐏𝐧 𝟏 − 𝐏𝐧)
R= + + +𝟏 = +𝟏 + ( +
𝐏𝐧 𝐏𝐧 𝐏𝐧
In which,
Pn : price of the share (asset) at the time n

Pn + 1 : price of the share (asset) at the time (n+1)

Dn + 1 : dividend is received at the time (n+1)

3.1.2. Rate of Return

Example 3.1

An investor owns 1,000 shares of company ABC. At the beginning of the year, the
stock price was 110,000 VND, at the end of the year it was 128,000 VND. Dividend paid
is 2,000 VND/share.

Determine the yield and rate of return on stock ABC?

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 4
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.1.3. Average Returns

Over a period, the average rate of return on an investment is simply the average of
the rates of return recorded during that period.

Berk & [Link], 2012

Two methods of determining the average rate of return:

▪ Arithmetic Average Returns (Phương pháp trung bình số học)

▪ Geometric (Compound) Average Returns (Phương pháp trung bình tích lũy)

3.1.3. Average Returns


Example 3.2

Suppose you buy a stock A for $100. Unforturely, the first you own it, it falls to $50. The second
year you own it, it rises back to $100, leaving you where you started (no dividends The price of Y
stock at the end were paid). What are your average return on this investment?

0% or 25%, which is correct?

10

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 5
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.1.3. Average Returns

Arithmetic Average Returns


𝟏
𝐑 = 𝐧 𝐑𝟏 + 𝐑𝟐 + 𝐑𝟑 + ⋯ + 𝐑𝐧

where,

▪ R : the average rate of return

▪ R1 , R 2 , R 3 , … R n ∶ the annual rate of return for period n

11

3.1.3. Average Returns

Geometric Average Return

𝐧
𝐑= 𝟏 + 𝐑 𝟏 )(𝟏 + 𝐑 𝟐 )(𝟏 + 𝐑 𝟑 ) … (𝟏 + 𝐑 𝐧 − 𝟏

The average rate of return implies that all profits generated are reinvested until the end of
the investment period.

12

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 6
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.1.3. Average Returns

The Geometric (multiplied) average returns show the average rate of return compounding
over a particular period of the investment. This method is used to determine the actual (true)
return of an investment in the past.

The Arithmetic average returns indicate the average rate of return per period over an
investment period. It is an unbiased estimate of the true mean of the distribution. This
method is used to estimate the future rate of return on an investment.

13

3.1.3. Average Returns

Example 3.3

Calculate the average rate of return of the following investment using the
both methods.

Year Rate of return


2017 20%
2018 50%
2019 - 15%
2020 30%

14

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 7
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2 RISK OF AN ASSET

3.2.1. The concept of risk

3.2.2. Risk Measurement

3.2.3. The Relationship between Return and Risk

3.2.4. Risk classification

15

3.2.1. The concept of risk

Risk is the possibility of one or more unexpected events (situations).

From the financial perspective, risk occurs when the actual rate of return differs
from the expected return.

The risk of an asset is analyzed in two directions.

• Individual risk (risk of each asset)

• Portfolio risk (a portfolio that includes many assets)

(Brigham, E.F. and Ehrhardt, M.C., 2011)

16

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 8
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.1. The concept of risk

Expected rate of return (Tỷ suất sinh lời kỳ vọng)


Expected rate of return is the rate of return investors expect to receive in the
next period.

The expected return can be determined based on the average return in the past
(Ex-post) or forecast in the future (Ex-ante).

17

3.1.3. Average Rate of Return

Expected rate of return

Expected rate of return based on historical data (Ex-ante) is the average rate
of returns.

𝟏
𝐑= 𝐑𝟏 + 𝐑𝟐 + 𝐑𝟑 + ⋯ + 𝐑𝐧
𝐧

18

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 9
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.1. The concept of risk

Expected rate of return


Expected rate of return based on forecast (Ex-ante) is a weighted average of likely
future returns.

𝐄 𝐑 = σ𝐧𝐢=𝟏 𝐏𝐢 𝐑 𝐢

In which,
E(R) is the expected return on the asset
Ri is the ith return on the asset
Pi is the probability that the ith return on the asset will occur

19

3.2.1. The concept of risk

Example 3.4

1. Calculate the expected rate of return of stock X

Probability Distribution
Present value of value of stock at
stock ($) next year ($) Probability (%) Rate of return (%)

140 25 40

100 110 50 10

80 25 -20

20

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 10
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.1. The concept of risk


Example 3.4

Demand of Rate of return


Probability
products [Link] Basic Foods

Mạnh 0.3 90% 45%

Trung bình 0.4 15% 15%

Yếu 0.3 - 60% -15%

1.0

2. Calculate expected rate of return ? ?

21

3.2.1. The concept of risk

- 60

22

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 11
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.2. Risk Measurement

A probability distribution is a statistical function that describes all possible values


and the probability that a random variable can achieve that value within a given
range. The sum of the probabilities is 1 (100%).

The tighter the probability distribution of the expected return, the closer the actual
return is to the expected return. Therefore, the risk of the investment is smaller.

23

3.2.2. Risk Measurement

- 60

24

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 12
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.2. Risk Measurement

Standard Deviation ,Ϭ or SD, is a measure of the dispersion of a probability


distribution. The smaller the standard deviation shows that the actual return has a
small dispersion compared to the expected return, the lower the risk of the
investment, and vice versa.

Variance, Ϭ2 or Var, is the square of the standard deviation. The variance


measures the dispersion of the return relative to the mean return in the sample.

The standard deviation and variance are today's most popular measures of the
volatility of a random variable.

25

3.2.2. Risk Measurement

Measure risk based on past data (ex-post)

σ𝐧𝐢=𝟏 𝐑 𝐢
ഥ=
𝐑
𝐧

σ𝐧 ഥ 𝟐
𝐢=𝟏(𝐑 𝐢 −𝐑)
Ϭ =𝟐 𝐧

Note: If the number of observations (sample) is small, the denominator in the


formula for Ϭ is (n-1)

26

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 13
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.2. Risk Measurement

Example 3.5

1. Sunny Enterprise had return rates from 2016 to 2020 of 15%, 16%, 17%, 20%
and 25% respectively. Calculate the standard deviation of Sunny’s rate of return.

27

3.2.2. Risk Measurement

Example 3.5

1. Sunny Enterprise had return rates from 2016 to 2020 of 15%, 16%, 17%, 20%
and 25% respectively. Calculate the standard deviation of Sunny’s rate of return.

28

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 14
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.2. Risk Measurement

Measure risk based on forecast data (ex-ante)

Ϭ2 = ෍[𝑹𝐢 −𝐄(𝐑)]2 ∗ 𝐏𝐢
𝐢=𝟏

𝐧
𝟐
Ϭ = ෍[𝐑 𝐢 −𝐄(𝐑)]2 ∗ 𝐏𝐢
𝐢=𝟏

29

3.2.2. Risk Measurement


Example 3.5
2. Calculate the standard deviation of [Link]
[Link]

Ri - E(R) [Ri - E(R)]2 *Pi


Pi Ri E(R) [Ri - E(R)]2

0.3 90%
0.4 15%
0.3 - 60%
1.0 Var
SD

30

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 15
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.2. Risk Measurement


Example 3.5
2. Calculate the standard deviation of Basic Foods
Basic Foods

Pi Ri E(R) Ri - E(R) [Ri - E(R)]2 [Ri - E(R)]2 *Pi

0.3 45% 15%


0.4 15% 15%
0.3 - 15% 15%
1.0 Var
SD

31

3.2.3. The Relationship between Risk and Return


▪ Return and risk are two goals that investors have to choose when making
decisions.

▪ For two assets with the same expected return but not the same risk, the risk
averse investor will choose the asset with the smaller standard deviation and vice
versa.

▪ For two assets that do not have the same expected return and do not have the
same risk, the risk-averse investor relies on the coefficient of variation to choose
the right asset.

32

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 16
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.3. The Relationship between Risk and Return

Coefficient of Variation (CV)

The coefficient of variation (Hệ số biến thiên) is a measure of the amount of risk per unit
of expected return

Ϭ
𝐂𝐕 =
E (R)

in which,

▪ CV Coefficient of Variation

▪ Ϭ: Standard Deviation

▪ E(R): Expected rate of return

33

3.2.3. The Relationship between Risk and Return


Example 3.6
Calculate the coefficient of variation of the Plan 1 and the Plan 2 based on the
following information.

Chỉ tiêu Plan 1 Plan 2

Expected rate of return 14% 20%

Standard deviation 16,25% 18,4%

34

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 17
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.3. The Relationship between Risk and Return

If investors accept to invest in a high-risk business, investors usually expect to


receive high returns if they succeed; and vice versa, they also have to accept
losses if they fail with a higher probability.

If an investor invests in a riskier asset, the investor expects a higher rate of return
known as the risk premium (Phần bù rủi ro).

35

3.2.3. The Relationship between Risk and Return


Risk Premium (RP) is the difference between the expected rate of return of a
high-risk asset and a lower-risk asset.

Expected rate of return Risk-free rate + Risk


on risky investment
= of return premium

𝐄 𝐑𝐢 = 𝐑 𝐟 + 𝐑𝐏𝐢

36

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 18
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.3. The Relationship between Risk and Return


Graph showing the relationship between return and risk

Expected Rate of return on


rate of return risky investment

Risk Premium
Risk-free
rate of return

Risk level
0

37

3.2.3. The Relationship between Risk and Return


Real rate of return in the US (1926 – 2008)

Small Big Long-term Long-term US


business business corporate government Treasury Inflationary
stocks stocks bonds bonds bills
Average rate of
16,4 11,7 6,2 6,1 3,8 3,1
return (%)

SD (%) 33 20,6 8,4 9,4 3,1 4,2

Extra income
compared to 10,3 5,6 0,1
US. T-Bill (%)
Brigham, E.F. and Ehrhardt, M.C. (2011)

38

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 19
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.4. Classification of Risks

The rate of return of a security (asset) consists of two components: The expected
return and The unexpected retune.

The unexpected return comes because unanticipated events.

R = E (R) + U

R = E (R) + m + ɛ

39

3.2.4. Classification of Risks


Systematic risks

• Systematic risks (also called market risks) are unanticipated events that affect almost all
assets to some degree because the effect are economy-wide.

• It cannot be mitigated by portfolio diversification.

• Causes: general disadvantages to the whole economy such as inflation, high interest rates,
war, etc.

• Systematic risk is measured in beta (β).

40

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 20
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.4. Classification of Risks


Unsystematic risks

• Unsystematic risks are unanticipated events that affect single assets or small group of
assets. Unsystematic risks are also called unique or asset-specific risks.

• It only happens with an investment, a business or a field of business, and so on.

• It can be minimized by diversifying the portfolio.

• Cause: due to internal problems of the enterprise, of the business field; or due to external
factors such as changes in macro policies, natural disasters, etc. impacting one or several
enterprises or business fields.

41

3.2.4. Classification of Risks


Diversification

Some, but not all, of the risk associated with a risky investment can be eliminated by
diversification.

The reason that unsystematic risks, which are unique to individual assets, tend to wash out in
a large portfolio; but systematic risks, which affect all of the assets in a portfolio to some
extent, do not.

42

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 21
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.4. Classification of Risk

SD of
Portfolio
Return Unsystematic risk

Systemic risk

Number of securities

43

3.2.4. Classification of Risks


The Systematic risks Principle and Beta

Because unsystematic risks can be free eliminated by diversification, the systematic


risk principle states that the reward for bearing risk depend on the level of systematic
risk. The level of systematic risk in a particular asset, relative to the average, is given
by the beta of that asset.

44

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 22
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.2.4. Classification of Risks


The Systematic risks Principle and Beta

▪ Systematic risk can be measured in beta. The β is amount of systematic risk present in
an individual asset relative to an asset with medium risk.

▪ Medium risk assets have a beta of 1. β of the market portfolio is equal to 1

• An asset with a beta of 0.5 means that its systematic risk is only half the systematic
risk of a medium-risk asset.

• An asset with a beta of 2 means that its systematic risk is twice the systematic risk of
the medium-risk asset.

45

3.2.4. Classification of Risks


The systematic risk of an asset is expressed as follows:

Ϭ𝐢𝐦
𝛃𝐢 =
Ϭ𝟐𝐦
in which,
βi : systematic risk of security i
σim : covariance of stock i and market portfolio
σ2m : variance of market portfolio

46

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 23
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.3. RETURN AND RISK OF AN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO

3.3.1. The Concept of an Investment Portfolio

3.3.2. Return on the investment portfolio

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio

3.3.4. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

47

3.3.1. The Concept of an Investment Portfolio

An investment portfolio is a collection of investments with different weights.

For example, the investment portfolio includes 30% long-term government


bonds, 30% long-term corporate bonds and 40% stocks.

48

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 24
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.3.2. Return on the Investment Portfolio

A portfolio's rate of return is the weighted average rate of rate of return of the stocks
(investments) in the portfolio.

E(Rp) = 𝐖𝟏𝐄 𝐑𝟏 + 𝐖𝟐𝐄 𝐑𝟐 + 𝐖𝟑𝐄 𝐑𝟑 + … … + 𝐖𝐧𝐄 𝐑𝒏

E(Rp) = ෍ 𝐖𝐢𝐄 𝐑𝐢
i=0

In which, E(RP): Rate of return on the investment portfolio; E(Ri): Rate of return on
Stock i; Wi : Weight of stock i in the portfolio; and n: Number of stocks the portfolio

49

3.3.2. Return on the Investment Portfolio


Example 3.7

1. Investment portfolio includes 2 stocks A and B with the following information:

• Stock A accounts for 30%, expected return 10%

• Stock B accounts for 70%, expected return 15%

What is the expected rate of return of the portfolio?

50

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 25
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.3.2. Return on the Investment Portfolio


Example 3.7
2. Calculate the expected rate of return of the following portfolio.

Stock Investment Weight Expected rate of Weighted Average of


value ($) return (%) Expected rate of return (%)

Southwest Airlines 300.000

Starbucks 100.000
FedEx 200.000
Dell 400.000
Total investment

51

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio

▪ Variance and Standard Deviation measure the volatility of return on an individual


security, asset, investment project, etc.

▪ Covariance (Hiệp phương sai) and Correlation Coefficients (Hệ số tương quan) measure
the relationship between the returns of one security relative to another.

52

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 26
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio


Covariance
Covariance measures the togetherness of the returns of two assets.
Based on past data ex − post

σ𝐧𝐢=𝟏 𝐑𝐀 𝐢 − 𝐑𝐀 ∗ 𝐑𝐁 𝐢 − 𝐑
ഥ𝐁
𝐂𝐨𝐯 𝐑𝐀, 𝐑𝐁 = 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐀𝐁= Ϭ𝐀𝐁 = , ,
𝐧

Note: If the observation is not large enough, divide by (n-1)


Based on forcast data (ex-ante)
𝐧

𝐂𝐨𝐯 𝐑𝐀, 𝐑𝐁 = 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐀𝐁= Ϭ𝐀𝐁 = ෍ 𝐑𝐀, 𝐢 − 𝐄 𝐑𝐀 ∗ [𝐑𝐁, 𝐢 − 𝐄 𝐑𝐁 ] ∗ 𝐏𝐢


𝐢=𝟏

53

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio

Covariance

▪ CovAB > 0 represents the rate of return of two assets moving in the same direction,
▪ CovAB < 0 represents the return of two assets moving in opposite directions.
▪ CovAB = 0 indicates that these two assets are not correlated with each other.

54

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 27
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio


Ccorrelation Coefficient

The correlation coefficient indicates the degree of linear correlation between the returns of
two assets.

dAB
Correl ( RA , RB ) = r AB =
d AdB

The correlation coefficient has a value from -1 to 1 .

55

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio


Correlation Coefficient

ρAB = −1 represents the returns of two assets with perfect negative correlation
ρAB = +1 represents the returns of 2 assets with perfect positive correlation
ρAB = 0 indicates returns of two assets that are not correlated
Investors can use correlation coefficients to select assets in a portfolio to reduce risk
(unsystematic risk) for the portfolio.

56

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 28
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

Ví dụ

57

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio

Example 3.8

Use the information in Example 3.5 to calculate the covariance and correlation
coefficient for [Link] and Basic Foods.

58

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 29
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio


The portfolio has two stocks (assets )

Stock A Stock B

Stock A [Link](A,A) = [Link]. Cov(A,B) =

W2A. Ϭ2A [Link]. ρAB ϬA. ϬB


Stock B [Link](A,B) = [Link](B,B) =

[Link]. ρAB ϬB. ϬA W2B. Ϭ2B

Ϭ2P (Phương sai của danh mục )

Ϭ2P = W2A. Ϭ2A + W2B . Ϭ2B + 2. [Link]. ρAB ϬA. ϬB

59

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio

Portfolio risk is measured by the variance and standard deviation of the portfolio.
Ϭ𝟐 𝐩 = 𝐖𝐀 𝟐 Ϭ𝐀 𝟐 + 𝐖𝐁 𝟐 Ϭ𝐁 𝟐 + 𝟐 𝐖𝐀 𝐖𝐁 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐀𝐁

In which,
▪ Ϭ2 p : Variance of the investment portfolio
▪ WA : Weight of stock A in the portfolio
▪ ϬA 2 : Variance of of stock A
▪ CovAB Covariance of rate of returns of stock A and stock B
▪ ρAB : Correlation coefficient of the returns of stock A and stock B

60

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 30
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio

Example 3.9
A portfolio of 2 stocks X and Y has the following information:
E(RX) is 60%, E(RY) is 50%; VarX is 1%; VarY is 0.25%; CovXY is 0.1%.
The weights of X and Y are 20% and 80% respectively.
Determine the expected return, variance, and standard deviation of the portfolio.

61

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio


Beta of Portfolio

The beta of a portfolio is calculated as the expected return of the portfolio. It is calculated
using the weighted average formula with the weight of the assets in the portfolio

βp = ෍ 𝐖𝐢 βi
𝐢=𝟎
In which, βp: Beta of the investment portfolio; βi : Beta of Stock i; Wi : Weight of stock i in
the portfolio; and n: Number of stocks the portfolio

62

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 31
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.3.3. Risk of the Investment Portfolio

Example 3.10

Calculate the expected return and beta for the following portfolio:

Security Amount invested Expected return Beta

A $1000 8% 0.80
B 2000 12 0.95
C 3000 15 1.10
D 4000 18 1.40

63

3.3.4. Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM


Case 1

Assume asset A has an expected return of 20% and beta 1.6. The risk-free asset has a yield
of 8%. Many different investment portfolios are made on the basis of varying proportions of
investments in asset A and risk-free assets. Assume the proportion of investment in asset A
varies by weights: 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%, 125% and 150%.

Calculate the expected returns of the portfolios and the corresponding betas.

64

lephanthidieuthao@[Link] 32
Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.3.4. Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM


Expected rate of return and beta of portfolios (Asset A)

WA E(RP) B(RP)
0%
25
50
75
100
125
150

65

3.3.4. Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM


Expected rate of return and beta of portfolios (Asset A)
E(Rp)

E(RA)=20% E ( RA ) - R f
= 7.5%
bA

Rf=8%

βA=1.6 βp
E ( RA ) - R f
Rreward-to-risk ratio (Hệ số phần thưởng-rủi ro) = = 7.5%
bA
➔ The slope of the linear line in the figure
66

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Chapter 3. Risk & Return 2023

3.3.4. Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM

Case 2.

Assume asset B has an expected return of 16% and beta 1.2. Between two assets, A and B,
which one is better?

First, different investment portfolios must be made on the basis of varying proportions of
investments in asset B and risk-free assets. Assume the proportion of investment in asset B
varies by weights: 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%, 125% and 150%.

Calculate the expected return and beta of the respective portfolios.

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3.3.4. Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM


Expected rate of return and beta of portfolios (Asset B)

WB E(RP) B(RP)
0%
25
50
75
100
125
150

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Expected rate of return and beta of portfolios (Asset B)
E(Rp)

E ( RB ) - R f
= 6.67%
E(RB)=16% bB
Rf=8%

βB=1.2 βp

Reward-to-risk ratio = E ( RB ) - R f = 6.67%


bB

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3.3.4. Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM

Reward-to-risk ratio of asset A (7.5%) is higher than its asset B (6.67%)

In an efficient and competitive market, reward-to-risk ratio spreads between assets do not
last long. Why?

Arbitration - Buy low, sell high

An asset is said to be overvalued if its price is too high relative to its expected return and risk.

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Example 3.11

Two assets have the following information. If the risk-free return is 6%, which asset is
overvalued? :

Beta Expected rate of return


Stock A 1.3 14%
Stock B 0.8 10%

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3.3.4. Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM


Asset expected
return E(Ri)

E ( Ri ) - R f
E(RB) = E ( RM ) - R f
E(RM) bi
E(RA)

Rf

βA βM=1 βB Asset beta (βi)


The SML is a positive slope, representing the relationship between the security's expected
return and beta .

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E(Ri) is the expected return of asset i, E(Rm) the expected return of the market,
Rf the risk-free return, βi the systematic risk of asset i,

𝐄 𝐑𝐢 = 𝐑 𝐟 + 𝐑𝐏𝐢
Risk premium of aeest i, RPi = βi x RPm

𝐄 𝐑𝐢 = 𝐑 𝐟 + 𝛃𝐢 [𝐑𝐏𝐦]
Risk premium of the market, RPm = [E(R m ) − R f ]

𝐄 𝐑𝐢 = 𝐑 𝐟 + 𝛃𝐢[𝐄(𝐑 𝐦 ) − 𝐑 𝐟 ]

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Assumptions of CAPM

▪ Investors focus on a certain investment term and the criteria for them to choose a
portfolio are expected return and risk; Investors have similar expectations; All
investors can borrow or lend unlimitedly at the risk-free rate.

▪ No investor can influence the price of the market; The assets are all divisible and have
perfect liquidity; There is no limit to short selling any asset; The amount of total assets
is fixed.

• No transaction fees, No costs, No taxes.

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Example 3.12

The beta of the company Fairy is 0.8, the expected return is 12% and the risk-free rate
is 8%. If the company Fairy lies on the SML, what is the market risk premium?

Stock of Pacific Company have a beta of 0.6. What is the expected return on Pacific’s
stock according to CAPM? Stocks of Atlantic have an expected return of 20%.
Determine the beta of Atlantic’ stock. Assume that the risk-free rate is 8% and the
market return is 14%.

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3.3.4. Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM

Example 3.13

If the risk-free rate is 6%, are the following stocks priced correctly?

What must be the risk-free rate for the prices of these two stocks to be considered
reasonable?

Stock Expected rate of return Beta

Saco 10% 0,80

Taco 8% 0,60

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