Chapter 3 - Risk and Return - Lesson
Chapter 3 - Risk and Return - Lesson
CHAPTER 3.
RISK & RETURN
LEARNING OBJECT
▪ Understand and determine returns and rates of return on assets and portfolios
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3.1.1. Return
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3.1.1. Return
Suppose you buy an asset, your gain (or loss) from that investment ia called the return on
your investment. This return will usually two components.
• First, you may receive some directly while you own the investment. This is called the
income component of your return
• Second, the value of the asset you purchase will change. In case of, you have a capital
gain (or capital loss) on your investment.
3.1.1. Return
• The return from investing in stocks is called capital gain or capital loss.
▪ Investment time
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The rate of return is the rate of return received on the invested capital. The return on equity
securities is equal to the dividend yield plus the capital gain/loss ratio.
𝐃𝐧 𝟏 𝐏𝐧 − 𝐏𝒏 𝐃𝐧 𝐏𝐧 𝟏 − 𝐏𝐧)
R= + + +𝟏 = +𝟏 + ( +
𝐏𝐧 𝐏𝐧 𝐏𝐧
In which,
Pn : price of the share (asset) at the time n
Example 3.1
An investor owns 1,000 shares of company ABC. At the beginning of the year, the
stock price was 110,000 VND, at the end of the year it was 128,000 VND. Dividend paid
is 2,000 VND/share.
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Over a period, the average rate of return on an investment is simply the average of
the rates of return recorded during that period.
▪ Geometric (Compound) Average Returns (Phương pháp trung bình tích lũy)
Suppose you buy a stock A for $100. Unforturely, the first you own it, it falls to $50. The second
year you own it, it rises back to $100, leaving you where you started (no dividends The price of Y
stock at the end were paid). What are your average return on this investment?
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where,
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𝐧
𝐑= 𝟏 + 𝐑 𝟏 )(𝟏 + 𝐑 𝟐 )(𝟏 + 𝐑 𝟑 ) … (𝟏 + 𝐑 𝐧 − 𝟏
The average rate of return implies that all profits generated are reinvested until the end of
the investment period.
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The Geometric (multiplied) average returns show the average rate of return compounding
over a particular period of the investment. This method is used to determine the actual (true)
return of an investment in the past.
The Arithmetic average returns indicate the average rate of return per period over an
investment period. It is an unbiased estimate of the true mean of the distribution. This
method is used to estimate the future rate of return on an investment.
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Example 3.3
Calculate the average rate of return of the following investment using the
both methods.
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From the financial perspective, risk occurs when the actual rate of return differs
from the expected return.
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The expected return can be determined based on the average return in the past
(Ex-post) or forecast in the future (Ex-ante).
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Expected rate of return based on historical data (Ex-ante) is the average rate
of returns.
𝟏
𝐑= 𝐑𝟏 + 𝐑𝟐 + 𝐑𝟑 + ⋯ + 𝐑𝐧
𝐧
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𝐄 𝐑 = σ𝐧𝐢=𝟏 𝐏𝐢 𝐑 𝐢
In which,
E(R) is the expected return on the asset
Ri is the ith return on the asset
Pi is the probability that the ith return on the asset will occur
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Example 3.4
Probability Distribution
Present value of value of stock at
stock ($) next year ($) Probability (%) Rate of return (%)
140 25 40
100 110 50 10
80 25 -20
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1.0
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The tighter the probability distribution of the expected return, the closer the actual
return is to the expected return. Therefore, the risk of the investment is smaller.
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The standard deviation and variance are today's most popular measures of the
volatility of a random variable.
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σ𝐧𝐢=𝟏 𝐑 𝐢
ഥ=
𝐑
𝐧
σ𝐧 ഥ 𝟐
𝐢=𝟏(𝐑 𝐢 −𝐑)
Ϭ =𝟐 𝐧
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Example 3.5
1. Sunny Enterprise had return rates from 2016 to 2020 of 15%, 16%, 17%, 20%
and 25% respectively. Calculate the standard deviation of Sunny’s rate of return.
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Example 3.5
1. Sunny Enterprise had return rates from 2016 to 2020 of 15%, 16%, 17%, 20%
and 25% respectively. Calculate the standard deviation of Sunny’s rate of return.
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Ϭ2 = [𝑹𝐢 −𝐄(𝐑)]2 ∗ 𝐏𝐢
𝐢=𝟏
𝐧
𝟐
Ϭ = [𝐑 𝐢 −𝐄(𝐑)]2 ∗ 𝐏𝐢
𝐢=𝟏
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0.3 90%
0.4 15%
0.3 - 60%
1.0 Var
SD
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▪ For two assets with the same expected return but not the same risk, the risk
averse investor will choose the asset with the smaller standard deviation and vice
versa.
▪ For two assets that do not have the same expected return and do not have the
same risk, the risk-averse investor relies on the coefficient of variation to choose
the right asset.
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The coefficient of variation (Hệ số biến thiên) is a measure of the amount of risk per unit
of expected return
Ϭ
𝐂𝐕 =
E (R)
in which,
▪ CV Coefficient of Variation
▪ Ϭ: Standard Deviation
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If an investor invests in a riskier asset, the investor expects a higher rate of return
known as the risk premium (Phần bù rủi ro).
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𝐄 𝐑𝐢 = 𝐑 𝐟 + 𝐑𝐏𝐢
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Risk Premium
Risk-free
rate of return
Risk level
0
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Extra income
compared to 10,3 5,6 0,1
US. T-Bill (%)
Brigham, E.F. and Ehrhardt, M.C. (2011)
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The rate of return of a security (asset) consists of two components: The expected
return and The unexpected retune.
R = E (R) + U
R = E (R) + m + ɛ
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• Systematic risks (also called market risks) are unanticipated events that affect almost all
assets to some degree because the effect are economy-wide.
• Causes: general disadvantages to the whole economy such as inflation, high interest rates,
war, etc.
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• Unsystematic risks are unanticipated events that affect single assets or small group of
assets. Unsystematic risks are also called unique or asset-specific risks.
• Cause: due to internal problems of the enterprise, of the business field; or due to external
factors such as changes in macro policies, natural disasters, etc. impacting one or several
enterprises or business fields.
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Some, but not all, of the risk associated with a risky investment can be eliminated by
diversification.
The reason that unsystematic risks, which are unique to individual assets, tend to wash out in
a large portfolio; but systematic risks, which affect all of the assets in a portfolio to some
extent, do not.
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SD of
Portfolio
Return Unsystematic risk
Systemic risk
Number of securities
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▪ Systematic risk can be measured in beta. The β is amount of systematic risk present in
an individual asset relative to an asset with medium risk.
• An asset with a beta of 0.5 means that its systematic risk is only half the systematic
risk of a medium-risk asset.
• An asset with a beta of 2 means that its systematic risk is twice the systematic risk of
the medium-risk asset.
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Ϭ𝐢𝐦
𝛃𝐢 =
Ϭ𝟐𝐦
in which,
βi : systematic risk of security i
σim : covariance of stock i and market portfolio
σ2m : variance of market portfolio
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A portfolio's rate of return is the weighted average rate of rate of return of the stocks
(investments) in the portfolio.
E(Rp) = 𝐖𝐢𝐄 𝐑𝐢
i=0
In which, E(RP): Rate of return on the investment portfolio; E(Ri): Rate of return on
Stock i; Wi : Weight of stock i in the portfolio; and n: Number of stocks the portfolio
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Starbucks 100.000
FedEx 200.000
Dell 400.000
Total investment
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▪ Covariance (Hiệp phương sai) and Correlation Coefficients (Hệ số tương quan) measure
the relationship between the returns of one security relative to another.
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σ𝐧𝐢=𝟏 𝐑𝐀 𝐢 − 𝐑𝐀 ∗ 𝐑𝐁 𝐢 − 𝐑
ഥ𝐁
𝐂𝐨𝐯 𝐑𝐀, 𝐑𝐁 = 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐀𝐁= Ϭ𝐀𝐁 = , ,
𝐧
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Covariance
▪ CovAB > 0 represents the rate of return of two assets moving in the same direction,
▪ CovAB < 0 represents the return of two assets moving in opposite directions.
▪ CovAB = 0 indicates that these two assets are not correlated with each other.
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The correlation coefficient indicates the degree of linear correlation between the returns of
two assets.
dAB
Correl ( RA , RB ) = r AB =
d AdB
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ρAB = −1 represents the returns of two assets with perfect negative correlation
ρAB = +1 represents the returns of 2 assets with perfect positive correlation
ρAB = 0 indicates returns of two assets that are not correlated
Investors can use correlation coefficients to select assets in a portfolio to reduce risk
(unsystematic risk) for the portfolio.
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Ví dụ
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Example 3.8
Use the information in Example 3.5 to calculate the covariance and correlation
coefficient for [Link] and Basic Foods.
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Stock A Stock B
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Portfolio risk is measured by the variance and standard deviation of the portfolio.
Ϭ𝟐 𝐩 = 𝐖𝐀 𝟐 Ϭ𝐀 𝟐 + 𝐖𝐁 𝟐 Ϭ𝐁 𝟐 + 𝟐 𝐖𝐀 𝐖𝐁 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐀𝐁
In which,
▪ Ϭ2 p : Variance of the investment portfolio
▪ WA : Weight of stock A in the portfolio
▪ ϬA 2 : Variance of of stock A
▪ CovAB Covariance of rate of returns of stock A and stock B
▪ ρAB : Correlation coefficient of the returns of stock A and stock B
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Example 3.9
A portfolio of 2 stocks X and Y has the following information:
E(RX) is 60%, E(RY) is 50%; VarX is 1%; VarY is 0.25%; CovXY is 0.1%.
The weights of X and Y are 20% and 80% respectively.
Determine the expected return, variance, and standard deviation of the portfolio.
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The beta of a portfolio is calculated as the expected return of the portfolio. It is calculated
using the weighted average formula with the weight of the assets in the portfolio
βp = 𝐖𝐢 βi
𝐢=𝟎
In which, βp: Beta of the investment portfolio; βi : Beta of Stock i; Wi : Weight of stock i in
the portfolio; and n: Number of stocks the portfolio
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Example 3.10
Calculate the expected return and beta for the following portfolio:
A $1000 8% 0.80
B 2000 12 0.95
C 3000 15 1.10
D 4000 18 1.40
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Assume asset A has an expected return of 20% and beta 1.6. The risk-free asset has a yield
of 8%. Many different investment portfolios are made on the basis of varying proportions of
investments in asset A and risk-free assets. Assume the proportion of investment in asset A
varies by weights: 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%, 125% and 150%.
Calculate the expected returns of the portfolios and the corresponding betas.
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WA E(RP) B(RP)
0%
25
50
75
100
125
150
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E(RA)=20% E ( RA ) - R f
= 7.5%
bA
Rf=8%
βA=1.6 βp
E ( RA ) - R f
Rreward-to-risk ratio (Hệ số phần thưởng-rủi ro) = = 7.5%
bA
➔ The slope of the linear line in the figure
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Case 2.
Assume asset B has an expected return of 16% and beta 1.2. Between two assets, A and B,
which one is better?
First, different investment portfolios must be made on the basis of varying proportions of
investments in asset B and risk-free assets. Assume the proportion of investment in asset B
varies by weights: 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%, 125% and 150%.
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WB E(RP) B(RP)
0%
25
50
75
100
125
150
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E ( RB ) - R f
= 6.67%
E(RB)=16% bB
Rf=8%
βB=1.2 βp
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In an efficient and competitive market, reward-to-risk ratio spreads between assets do not
last long. Why?
An asset is said to be overvalued if its price is too high relative to its expected return and risk.
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Example 3.11
Two assets have the following information. If the risk-free return is 6%, which asset is
overvalued? :
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E ( Ri ) - R f
E(RB) = E ( RM ) - R f
E(RM) bi
E(RA)
Rf
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𝐄 𝐑𝐢 = 𝐑 𝐟 + 𝐑𝐏𝐢
Risk premium of aeest i, RPi = βi x RPm
𝐄 𝐑𝐢 = 𝐑 𝐟 + 𝛃𝐢 [𝐑𝐏𝐦]
Risk premium of the market, RPm = [E(R m ) − R f ]
𝐄 𝐑𝐢 = 𝐑 𝐟 + 𝛃𝐢[𝐄(𝐑 𝐦 ) − 𝐑 𝐟 ]
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▪ Investors focus on a certain investment term and the criteria for them to choose a
portfolio are expected return and risk; Investors have similar expectations; All
investors can borrow or lend unlimitedly at the risk-free rate.
▪ No investor can influence the price of the market; The assets are all divisible and have
perfect liquidity; There is no limit to short selling any asset; The amount of total assets
is fixed.
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The beta of the company Fairy is 0.8, the expected return is 12% and the risk-free rate
is 8%. If the company Fairy lies on the SML, what is the market risk premium?
Stock of Pacific Company have a beta of 0.6. What is the expected return on Pacific’s
stock according to CAPM? Stocks of Atlantic have an expected return of 20%.
Determine the beta of Atlantic’ stock. Assume that the risk-free rate is 8% and the
market return is 14%.
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Example 3.13
If the risk-free rate is 6%, are the following stocks priced correctly?
What must be the risk-free rate for the prices of these two stocks to be considered
reasonable?
Taco 8% 0,60
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