15.6 Programme Evaluation Review Technique : (PERT) This technique, unlike CPM, takes irto account the uncertainty project durations into account. j PERT calculations depend upon the following three time estimates, Optimistic (least) time estimate : ((, or a) is the duration of activity when everything goes on very well during the project. ie labourers are available and come in time, machines are working propert money is available whenever needed, there is no scarcity of raw mater needed etc. Pessimistic (greatest) time estimate : @ or 5) is the duration of an activity when almost every thing goes against our will and a lot o difficulties is faced while doing a project.Most likely time estimate: (t,, or m) is the duration of any activity when sometimes things go on very well, sometimes things go on very bad while doing the project.Sorowae'. + Gardad daialkon o- tp-*o bb *& Brpind dwalbe to = ko am Hep ly a & Expatad Lomona, 57 = (ey Wor ky RAF OPHWAFE Ewe orienta TAomt| kp b 7 en teWWe egadad\iera. adhersha, km dm 3 Mak Wade Soo Werke .Construct the network for the project whose activities and the three time estimates of these activities (in weeks) are given below. Compute (a) Expected duration of each activity (b) Expected variance of each activity (c) Expected variance of the project length{ Activity i Le | 9 8 -10 9-10 t -iE | Expected duration | Expected Variance | so > = Activity tot Att f 2(! - ‘) x Lae | (45° 1/9 = 0.1 1Inearly [19= 0.11 19= 0.11 [19= 0.11 419 = 0.44 419 = 0.44 'o= 0.11 1o= 0.11 “| 49= 0.44 "o= 0.11 [4n= 0.44 4y9= 0.44 4] & wl] rj— 1 e aie + Ww) al —)r]a}alol—)olo} alo 1 |e] el we 1 = 7 eo] | a] SI] 60} 3] &} 00] \] Ga] ] UW} wa] Le] AIAN) Ala] A) lw) al olla ! 1 1 1S] S| ©} 0} a} a] a} un) a] wo jw) ale] alalalulolalolrola B (Fle | sls] 8h le ic |Pads >” Durxatoo Vaaew rR Sos _ yar Basan yee = 241 WHAS-SL ASI _ Waa QasaDeS = on Vea Hr S— 7 Fe ~ WADABSSADAS sar Vere W=S -A-8= 10 — WABBssynrbd = as V2 3/0 SAAS _ papas + USS = 2S fore ye be a We _ WRSSAASDTNS =D taal pate: 1-2 Eye -A-S-1O Zerportad Poet’ Aasalden = DADS1 — 3 ml 8 —| 2 fe, acl 1 c ©) Ss) ] el elt] gg] | BAL SSS S]8) 2/5) 4) 3/5] 5/5 Bt slsisle/s]S/sieleicis S & bald AA al al AA AAI ATS a = |S] SIF S) SF) ] 4] 4] 4) 4] F =i ge B+ 5 & ssi Bt 3 BS a 8 [ao yo = +l Ly x aS ae al & Eg , als win fmm 2 on rio | activity |71-9 [8-10 (9-10(c) Expected variance of the project length variances of all the critical activities -1,1,4,1,4,4 -1 . 1 _ “gta to tata +9 ~ 9 9 Win Sum = 1 of the expeaaj 67Oe di ble indicates the det, alls of 4 : The following ¢@ tq’ refers to optimistic time, «,, 1M durations are in days: ws ikely time and *B" refers (0 pessimistic time duration, Activity 1-2 13 14 2-4 2s ' \ a 2 3 4 8 F ; m 4 4 5 9 F ; ; b 5 6 6 Pn - ' (a) Draw the network (b) Find the critical path (c) Determine the expected standard deviation of the completion time.Save ————- Domtebdadkor Amaity | agate Ye eattedty, . we. = 2S. Rargin hes = Te Dusalhon ; mms QAOR25_ OS tence B.B48B2 Ie So Vas AQ ABANEBE 1 sd ues sruts 2483 bx Expats Sesdasd Aasiaan Leayas, S82 4a AMHS 14 T tata pati, (22-475 Saat Ripartad duualhay = V8 ebay . 2(Example 3] a i [Example 3] Project consists of the following activities and time estimates: le Activity Least time Greatest time | Most likely time L (days) (days) (days) [SI = 2 3 15 6 | ar3 2 4 as | 1-4 6 30, aah | [ 2-5 a 8 5 | 2-6 5 7 ul a: oe 3 15 6 4-7 3 5 (@) Draw the network (6) What is the probability that the pr days ? oject will be completed in 27Techniqe™ ygement source Manabe time = Pessimi ise aly Greatest istic tine “sauton: OnMIOUT OT tte = Optimistic ting ~ Sobution + 4 Most likely time = ty 4 @ ‘Activity 1-2 3 1S 6 i3 2 4 5 6 Pisa] 6: | al 12 14 16 2-5 [2 [8 5 5 1 1 2-6 {5 [nm] u MW ._]| | 3-6 [3 [is [6 7 4 | SAE SE am i cca 5-7 [1 4 i L6*9 2 5 1 1 J Critical path 1 —4— 7, Expected Project duration = 25 days "reed vac of te projet ength = Sum of the expected critical activities critical activities 4, * Senda = 16+ 16=32. “Non of the project ength = (3 = 4.2 = 5686—~ J —~te-Te soo. 27-25 2 5.656 5.656 = 9.35 pability that the project will be sted in 27 days completed in = P(Tg $27) = PZ < 0.35) = 0.6368 = 63.7%