STA2EA1 (University of Johannesburg) Distribution Theory Part 2 2026
Tutorial 5
Exercise 1
Let X, the number of flaws on the surface of a randomly selected carpet of a specific type, follow a Poisson
distribution with a parameter of λ = 5. Use the cumulative Poisson probability tables (Appendix Table A.2) to
calculate the following probability, showing all your intermediate steps.
a) ℙ(X ≤ 8).
b) ℙ(X = 8).
c) ℙ(9 ≤ X).
d) ℙ(5 ≤ X ≤ 8).
e) ℙ(5 < X < 8).
Exercise 2
Some articles have suggested using the Poisson distribution to model the number of failures across different
types of pipelines. Suppose that for a cast-iron pipe of a specific length, the expected number of failures is 1,
which is very close to one of the cases discussed in the article. Then, the number of failures follows a Poisson
distribution with λ = 1.
a) Obtain ℙ(X ≤ 5) by using Appendix Table A.2.
b) Calculate ℙ(X = 2). First, use the pmf formula, then verify with Appendix Table A.2.
c) Determine ℙ(2 ≤ X ≤ 4).
d) Calculate the probability that X exceeds its mean by more than one standard deviation.
Exercise 3
Consider writing data onto a computer disk and then sending it through a certifier that counts the number of
missing pulses. Suppose this number, X, follows a Poisson distribution with parameter λ = 0.2.
a) Determine the probability that a disk has exactly one missing pulse.
b) Determine the probability that a disk has at least two missing pulses.
c) If two disks are chosen independently, what is the probability that neither contains a missing pulse?
STA2EA1 (University of Johannesburg) Distribution Theory Part 2 2026
Exercise 4
Suppose small aircraft arrive at a certain airport according to a Poisson process with rate α = 8 per hour, so that
the number of arrivals during a time period of t hours is a Poisson random variable with parameter μ = 8t.
a) Determine, with clear motivation, the probability that during a 1-hour period:
i) Exactly 6 small aircraft arrive.
ii) At least 6 small aircraft arrive.
iii) At least 10 small aircraft arrive.
b) Determine the expected value and standard deviation of the number of small aircraft arriving during a 90-
minute period.
c) Determine the probability that at least 20 small aircraft arrive during a 2.5-hour period and compare this to
the probability that at most 10 arrive during this period.
Exercise 5
The number of assistance requests received by a towing service follows a Poisson process with a rate of 5.4 per
hour.
a) State all assumptions needed to model the number of assistance requests received by a towing service as a
Poisson distribution.
b) Calculate the probability of receiving exactly ten requests in a specific 2-hour period.
c) If the operators of the towing service take a 30-minute lunch break, what is the probability that they do not
miss any assistance calls?
d) How many calls would you expect during their break?
Exercise 6
An article in the Los Angeles Times (Dec. 3, 1993) reports that 1 in 200 people carry the defective gene
responsible for inherited colon cancer.
a) In a sample of 1000 individuals, what is the approximate distribution of the number who carry this gene?
Use this distribution to calculate the approximate probability that:
b) Between 5 and 8 (inclusive) carry the gene.
c) At least 8 carry the gene.
STA2EA1 (University of Johannesburg) Distribution Theory Part 2 2026
Exercise 7
In proof testing of circuit boards, the probability that any particular diode will fail is 0.01. Suppose a circuit
board contains 200 diodes.
a) How many diodes do you expect to fail, and what is the standard deviation of the expected failures?
b) Find the approximate probability that at least four diodes will fail on a randomly selected board?
c) If five boards are shipped to a specific customer, what is the probability that at least four of them will
function correctly? (A board functions properly only if all its diodes work.)
Exercise 8
A parking lot has two entrances. Cars arrive at entrance I following a Poisson distribution with an average of
three per hour, and at entrance II following a Poisson distribution with an average of four per hour. What is the
probability that a total of three cars will arrive at the parking lot in a given hour? (Assume that the number of
cars arriving at the two entrances are independent.)
Exercise 9
A store owner has excess stock of a particular item and decides to run a promotion to clear the inventory. The
item's listed price is R100. For each customer who purchases the item on a specific day, the owner will reduce
the price by half from the price charged to the previous customer. Therefore, the first customer pays 𝑅𝑅50, the
second pays R25, and so on. Assume the number of customers buying the item during the day follows a Poisson
distribution with an average of 2. Determine the expected cost of the item at the end of the day.
Exercise 10
The number of cars driving past a parking area within a one-minute interval follows a Poisson distribution with
a mean of λ. The probability that any individual driver genuinely wishes to park their car is ϑ. Assume that
individuals make their parking decisions independently of one another. Let W denote the number of drivers
desiring to park during a one-minute interval.
Derive the probability distribution of W.
Exercise 11
Starting at 6 a.m., cars, buses, and motorcycles arrive at a highway toll booth according to independent Poisson
processes. Cars arrive roughly every 5 minutes, buses about every 10 minutes, and motorcycles approximately
every 30 minutes.
At the toll booth, the probability that a driver has exact change is 1/4, regardless of the vehicle. Find the
probability that no vehicle has exact change within the first 10 minutes.
STA2EA1 (University of Johannesburg) Distribution Theory Part 2 2026
Exercise 11
Accidents occur at a busy intersection following a Poisson process with a rate of 2 accidents per week. Three
out of four accidents involve alcohol use.
a) Determine the probability that three accidents involving alcohol will occur next week.
b) Determine the probability that at least one accident will occur tomorrow.
Exercise 12
Consider two randomly chosen samples of ten observations each, drawn from distributions of random variables
that take only non-negative integer values.
Sample 1 7 4 6 11 5 9 8 3 5 5
Sample 2 8 3 5 11 2 4 6 12 3 9
One sample comes from a Poisson distribution, while the other does not. State, with brief reasons, which sample
you believe is which.
Exercise 13
The university administration assures a statistician, who works only on weekdays, that he has just a one-in-2000
chance of being trapped in a poorly regarded elevator in the statistics building. Suppose he commutes five days
a week for ten years and always takes the elevator to his office when he first arrives. Assume that all daily
outcomes are independent.
Prove that this statistician will be trapped in the next two months, May and June. Use the Poisson
approximation to the Binomial distribution to answer this question.
Exercise 13
The probability that a mouse inoculated with a serum will contract a specific disease is 0.2. Using the Poisson
approximation, find the probability that at most three out of 30 inoculated mice will develop the disease.
Exercise 14
Of the people passing through an airport metal detector, 0.5% activate it; let X denote the number in a randomly
selected group of 500 who activate it.
a) What is the (approximate) pmf of X?
b) Compute ℙ(X = 5).
c) Compute ℙ(X ≤ 5).
STA2EA1 (University of Johannesburg) Distribution Theory Part 2 2026
Exercise 15
A reservation service employs five information operators who receive requests for information independently of
one another, each according to a Poisson process with rate α = 2 per minute.
a) Determine the probability that during a given 1-min period, the first operator receives no requests.
b) Determine the probability that, during a given 1-minute period, exactly four of the five operators receive no
requests.
c) Obtain and write down an expression for the probability that, during a specific 1-minute interval, all
operators receive exactly the same number of requests.
Exercise 16
Grasshoppers are distributed at random in a large field according to a Poisson process with parameter a α = 2
per square yard. How large should the radius R of a circular sampling region be taken so that the probability of
finding at least one in the region equals 0.99?
Exercise 17
A newsstand orders five copies of a particular issue of a photography magazine. Let X represent the number of
people who purchase this magazine. If X follows a Poisson distribution with a parameter α = 4, what is the
expected number of copies sold?
Exercise 18
Under what conditions can the Poisson random variable be used to approximate the probabilities associated
with the binomial random variable? What applications does the Poisson distribution have beyond estimating
certain binomial probabilities?
Exercise 19
Evidence shows that the probability that a driver will be involved in a serious automobile accident during a
given year is 0.01. A particular corporation employs 100 full-time traveling sales reps. Based on this evidence,
use the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution to find the probability that exactly two of the sales
reps will be involved in a serious automobile accident during the coming year.
Exercise 20
A cloth manufacturer recognizes that defects occur randomly during the production process at a rate of 2 per 15
meters.
a) Determine the probability of exactly four faults occurring within a 15-meter length of fabric.
b) Determine the likelihood of observing more than ten faults in a sixty-meter length of fabric.
STA2EA1 (University of Johannesburg) Distribution Theory Part 2 2026
Exercise 20 continued
A retailer buys a large quantity of this fabric and sells it in pieces that are x meters long. He chooses x so that
the probability of a piece having no faults is 0.80.
c) Write an equation for x and show that x = 1.7 to 2 significant figures.
The retailer sells 1200 pieces of cloth. He makes a profit of 60 cents on each faultless piece but incurs a loss of
R1.50 on any faulty pieces.
d) Find the retailer’s expected profit.
Exercise 21
Calls are received at a company call center according to a Poisson process with an arrival rate of 5 calls per
minute.
a) Determine the probability that no calls are received in a 30-second interval.
b) Determine the probability that precisely four calls occur within the initial minute and exactly six calls occur
within the subsequent minute.
c) Determine the probability that a total of 25 calls are received during the initial five minutes, with six of these
calls occurring within the first minute.
Exercise 22
Patients begin arriving at the doctor’s office from 9:00 a.m., following a Poisson process. The average arrival
rate is three patients per hour.
a) Calculate the probability that at least two patients arrive by 9:30 a.m.
b) Determine the probability that ten patients arrive by noon and that eight of them arrive before 11:00 a.m.
c) Given that six patients have arrived by 10:00 a.m., determine the probability that merely one patient arrived
by 9:15 a.m.
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