ocean-climate.
org
Sea Benoit Meyssignac,
Gilles Reverdin
Level Rise
Measurements from tide gauges and satellites have shown that the sea is rising globally at
an average rate of about 1.7mm per year since the beginning of the 20th century, a direct
consequence of human-driven global warming, although there is strong regional variability. This
increase is mainly due to two factors: the increase in ocean temperature resulting in expansion
of sea water, and the melting of continental ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps with an input of
fresh water into the ocean. Despite uncertainties, proposed scenarios indicate that sea levels
will continue to rise at a faster pace than during the 20th century, reaching an increase of more
than 25cm (best case) and 82cm (worst case but likely underestimated) by 2100.
MAREGRAPHIC MEASUREMENTS since the beginning of the twentieth century,
the sea has globally been rising at an average
DURING THE 20TH CENTURY
speed of about 1.7mm per year (Figure1, left).
Direct observation of changes in sea level
began with the industrial era and the systematic THE OBSERVATION OF CHANGES IN
installation of tide gauges in a few harbours
across northern Europe, then progressively in
SEA LEVEL FROM SPACE
other areas of the world. These instruments,
Since the early 1990s, scientists have been
originally developed to measure the tides,
taking routine measurements of the rising sea
provide us with precious data on the evolution of
sea level during the twentieth century. Although levels from space, with high-precision altimetry
few in numbers and poorly distributed over the satellites like Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, ERS-
globe, the historical tidal series indicates that 1/2, Envisat and recently Saral/Alika and Cryosat
(Ablain et al., 2014). Satellite observations have
40
100
20th century Satellite altimetry era a major advantage in comparison with the tide
30
gauge: they provide a quasi-global observation
Sea level (mm)
Sea level (mm)
20
50
10 of the entire ocean, with a revisit time of a few
0
0
-10
days. Figure 1 (right) illustrates the evolution of
-50 -20 the sea level measured by altimetry satellites
-100
-30
between 1993 and 2013. During this period, the
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1995 2000 2005 2010
rise in sea level was almost linear at a speed of
Fig.1— Evolution of the global average sea le- 3.2±0.4mm/year (Cazenave et al., 2014). This
vel, estimated from the reconstruction by Church increase is the double of that recorded by tide
and White (2011) over the twentieth century (left) gauges during the twentieth century, suggesting
and from satellite altimetry over the 1993-2012 pe- an acceleration of sea level rise since the early
riod (source: AVISO). The uncertainty associated with 1990s. Through its complete coverage of the
each of the curves is in grey. The annual and semi global ocean, satellite altimetry also revealed
annual cycles have been removed. Note the verti- that the rise in sea level is not uniform. It presents
cal scale difference between the two curves. From a strong regional variability (see Fig.2) from
Cazenave & The Cozannet (2014). regions such as Western Tropical Pacific where
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the sea level is rising 3 times faster than the evidenced glacier retreat in almost all mountain
global average, to other regions such as the ranges. This is partly explained by their delayed
western United States coastline, where the sea response to natural global warming following
level is dropping at a rate of 1 to 2mm/year. the Little Ice Age. However, the acceleration of
glacier mass loss observed since the mid-1980s
has been attributed to the recent anthropogenic
THE CAUSES OF THE CURRENT RISE warming (Marzeion et al., 2014). During the
IN THE GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL altimeter period between 1993 and 2010, the
glaciers are estimated to have contributed to a
On a global average, the current rise in sea 0.9mm/year sea level rise (Church et al., 2013).
level is a direct consequence of anthropogenic
global warming (Church et al., 2013). It has two • Mass loss of the polar ice caps
main causes: The mass loss of the polar ice caps can be
observed and estimated primarily with three
1. Increasing ocean temperatures and techniques: Radar or laser altimetry (which
associated thermal expansion (when the measure changes in the elevation of ice sheets
temperature increases, the sea water since 1991), Spatial gravimetry (which provides
expands and sea level rises) direct mass changes of the ice cap with
2. The melting of continental ice, glaciers and time) and the flux method (calculation of the
ice caps (freshwater flows to the sea due difference between climate model estimates of
to melting continental ice lead to rising sea surface snow accumulation and the flow of ice
level). In addition to these processes, a small reaching the ocean at the grounding line of the
contribution also results from liquid water ice caps) (Rignot et al., 2014). An assessment
exchanges with the land (0.38mm/year over of these observations over the past 20 years
the 1993-2010 period). (Shepherd et al., 2012) indicates a very strong
mass loss in the coastal regions of Greenland
• Thermal expansion and West Antarctica. Together, these losses
Oceanographers have observed that the ocean represent an increase in sea level of 0.6mm/
is getting warmer, by collecting sea temperature year over the 1993-2010 period (Church et al.,
measurements from sensors dropped overboard 2013).
from the stern of merchant ships during the past
five decades and from the automatic floats from
the international Argo project during the past
ten years. Sea water expands with increasing Sea level trends from satellite altimetry
temperature, thus leading to a rise in sea level. (1992/10 – 2013/08, LEGOS/CLS)
0° 30° 60° 90° 120° 150° 180° -150° -120° -90° -60° -30°
It is estimated that during the altimeter period 90° 90°
(i.e. since 1993 and the beginning of satellite 60° 60°
observations), this contribution explains 30%
30° 30°
of the rise in global sea level (1.1±0.3mm/year
between 1993 and 2010; Church et al., 2013). 0° 0°
-30° -30°
• Melting glaciers -60° -60°
Glaciers represent the whole of the continental
-90° -90°
ice masses, except for the two vast Greenland 0° 30° 60° 90° 120° 150° 180° -150° -120° -90° -60° -30°
and Antarctic ice caps. There are more than -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
200,000 glaciers, covering about 730,000 km²
of emerged lands. Since the end of the Little Fig.2— Global map of the geographical distribu-
Ice Age around 1850, observations (from in tion of rates of sea level change (1993-2013) accor-
situ measurements of glacier mass balance, ding to altimeter measurements from Topex/Poseidon,
altimetry and recently space gravimetry) have Jason-1/2, ERS-1/2 and Envisat (source: LEGOS).
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REASONS FOR THE REGIONAL (a) (b)
VARIABILITY OF SEA LEVEL 60°N 60°N
30°N 30°N
0°N 0°N
At a regional scale, the heat accumulation in
30°S 30°S
the ocean and its associated thermal expansion 60°S 60°S
90°E 180°E 90°W 0°
generate most of the variability in sea level. The (c)
90°E 180°E 90°W 0°
(d)
heat in the ocean is redistributed irregularly by 60°N 60°N
30°N 30°N
ocean circulation (Stammer et al., 2013) in response 0°N 0°N
to atmospheric forcing (in angular momentum, 30°S 30°S
heat and freshwater). Depending on the region, 60°S
90°E 180°E 90°W 0°
60°S
90°E 180°E 90°W 0°
different processes are at work. For example in the -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
(m)
western tropical Pacific, the intensification of trade
Fig.3— Overall average (21 CMIP5 models) of the
winds observed for twenty years have caused
change in relative sea level for RCP2.6 scenarios (a),
a deepening of the thermocline in the western
4.5 (b), 6.0 (c) and 8.5 (d). The impact of thermal ex-
part of the basin, inducing the formation of a
pansion of the oceans, the mass of continental ice,
thicker layer of warm surface water and therefore
continental stocks of liquid water and post-glacial re-
a marked rise in sea level (Timmermann et al.
bound have been taken into account (adapted from
2010; Stammer et al., 2013.).
Church et al., 2013).
SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE FUTURE
In response to past and future emissions of they all forecast an increase in sea temperature
greenhouse gases, global warming will continue and the melting of land ice. The extent of the
in the future. Consequently, the increase in sea level rise could vary between 25cm (best
sea level will also continue, largely due to the case scenarios RCP2.6) and 82cm (worst-case
melting of land ice and thermal expansion of scenarios RCP8.5). In all cases, a simulation of
the oceans. The challenge is to estimate the the rise of the level of the sea between now
magnitude of this increase, with the regional and 2100 indicates that it should be faster than
disparities, and associated uncertainties. The during the twentieth century. By 2100, the rate
uncertainties derive from two major sources: of sea level rise could reach 8-16mm/year for
firstly, the lack of understanding of certain the RCP 8.5, which is similar to that during the
climatic processes that affect changes in sea last deglaciation. Moreover, in the same way
level (e.g. this is the case for the ice flowing from that present changes in the current sea level are
the polar ice caps to the ocean) and secondly, not uniform, it is expected that changes in sea
the uncertainty concerning future gas emission level at the end of the XXIst century will display
scenarios for the anthropogenic greenhouse significant regional differences (Figure 3, Yin et
effect. Indeed, different scenarios involving al., 2010). For example, considering the RCP8.5
emissions of greenhouse gases (expressed in scenario, the sea level could drop slightly in
terms of radiative forcing: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 certain areas of the Arctic, while it could increase
and RCP8.5, IPCC 2013) and the response of the by more than 70 cm along the east coast of the
climate system (expressed as the increase in United States. It is therefore essential to take
the global temperature of the Earth) can occur these differences into account and to model
for the coming decades (IPCC 2013). Each them correctly in order to anticipate future rises
scenario indicates a rise in sea level between in sea level in coastal areas. At the moment, this
1986 and 2000 and between 2080 and 2100, as is a very active research topic.
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REFERENCES
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2, issue 2.
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2014 – The Rate of Sea Level Rise. Nature Climate Change, vol. 4.
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Climate Change, Cambridge University Press.
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