AS Level Statistics (Year 1)
Probability Formula Sheet
1. Basic probability
S denotes the sample space. All probabilities satisfy 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
Name Formula Notes
Number of favourable outcomes
Classical probability P(A) = n(A) / n(S)
divided by total equally likely outcomes
P(A') is the probability of 'not A'. A and
Complement rule P(A') = 1 - P(A) A' are exhaustive and mutually
exclusive
P(A∩B') = P(A) − Probability of A but not B. Common in
A only (not B) Venn diagram questions. Similarly
P(A∩B)
P(A'∩B) = P(B) − P(A∩B)
All probabilities across a complete
Exhaustive events Σ P(xᵢ) = 1
sample space must sum to 1
The empty set (no outcome) has
Impossible event P(∅) = 0
probability 0
Certain event P(S) = 1 The whole sample space is certain
Note: A' is also written as A^c or 'not A'. Make sure you can use Venn diagrams to represent events.
2. Addition rules
Use these to find the probability that A or B (or both) occur.
Name Formula Notes
P(A∪B) = P(A) + For any two events. Subtract the
General addition rule
P(B) - P(A∩B) intersection to avoid counting it twice
P(A∪B) = P(A) + Only when A∩B = ∅. Events cannot
Mutually exclusive
P(B) both occur, so P(A∩B) = 0
Note: Check for mutual exclusivity first. If two events cannot happen together, the simpler form applies.
3. Conditional probability and independence
Conditional probability measures how the probability of A changes when we know B has occurred.
Name Formula Notes
P(A|B) = P(A∩B) / Probability of A given B. Requires P(B)
Definition
P(B) >0
P(A∩B) = P(A|B) · Rearrangement of the definition. Also
Multiplication rule
P(B) equals P(B|A) · P(A)
P(A∩B) = P(A) · If this holds, A and B are independent.
Independence test
P(B) Equivalently P(A|B) = P(A)
The standard conditional definition
P(A'|B') = P(A'∩B') applied to complemented events.
Not A given not B
/ P(B') P(A'∩B') = 1 − P(A∪B) and P(B') = 1 −
P(B)
Law of total P(B) = P(B|A)·P(A) Splits P(B) across a partition. Used
probability + P(B|A')·P(A') with tree diagrams
Note: The multiplication rule is the foundation of tree diagrams: multiply along branches, add across
branches.
Note: For independent events, knowing B tells you nothing new about A.
4. Binomial distribution X ~ B(n, p)
Used when there are n independent trials, each with two outcomes (success/failure), and a constant
probability of success p.
Name Formula Notes
Fixed n, two
outcomes, constant All four conditions must hold to use the
Conditions
p, independent binomial model
trials
Probability mass P(X=r) = ⁿCr · pʳ · r = 0, 1, 2, ..., n. Also written C(n,r) or
function (1-p)ⁿ⁻ʳ (n choose r)
ⁿCr = n! / (r!(n- Number of ways to choose r successes
Combinations
r)!) from n trials
Mean (expected The average number of successes in n
E(X) = np
value) trials
Variance Var(X) = np(1-p) Also written npq where q = 1 - p
Square root of variance. Same units as
Standard deviation SD(X) = √(np(1-p))
X
Note: Use your calculator's binomial CDF for cumulative probabilities P(X ≤ r).
Note: P(X ≥ r) = 1 - P(X ≤ r-1). Always check whether ≤ or ≥ is required.
5. Hypothesis testing (binomial proportion)
Tests whether sample evidence is consistent with a claimed value of p.
Name Formula Notes
The value of p being tested. Assume
Null hypothesis H₀: p = p₀
H₀ is true throughout
H₁: p > p₀ or p < Directional claim. Use when context
Alt. hypothesis (1-tail)
p₀ specifies an increase or decrease
Non-directional claim. Halve the
Alt. hypothesis (2-tail) H₁: p ≠ p₀
significance level for each tail
X ~ B(n, p₀) under Assume the null is true and find P(X ≤
Test statistic
H₀ k) or P(X ≥ k)
Reject H₀ if p- α is the significance level (e.g. 0.05 or
Decision rule
value < α 0.01)
Largest c satisfying this is the critical
Critical region (lower) P(X ≤ c) < α
value
Smallest c satisfying this is the critical
Critical region (upper) P(X ≥ c) < α
value
Note: The actual significance level ≤ α due to the discrete nature of the binomial.
Note: Always state your conclusion in context, referring back to the original claim.
AS Level Year 1 Statistics • Probability Reference Sheet • Normal distribution and further topics are covered in Year 2 (A
Level).