MTH-167
UNIT-5
Lecture 3-Poisson Distribution
Unit 5: Probability Distributions
Learning Outcomes:
To know about the Poisson distribution.
Poisson Distribution
Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution.
Poisson distribution is a limiting case of Binomial distribution.
Assumptions of Poisson Distribution
1. Each trial results in two mutually exclusive outcomes, a success and
a failure.
2. The number of trials is very large that is 𝑛 → ∞.
3. The constant probability of success , 𝑝 is very small that is 𝑝 → 0.
4. 𝑛𝑝 = 𝜆, where 𝜆 is a positive real number, is finite .
Examples of Poisson Distribution
1. Number of defective items out of lots produced in a large
manufacturing factory.
2. The number of vehicles passing, per minute, during the peak hours in
a day through a particular traffic junction.
3. Number of printing mistakes on each page of a book.
Probability mass function of Poisson Distribution
A random variable X is said to follow the Poisson distribution if the
probability mass function is given by:
𝒆−𝝀 𝝀𝒓
𝑷 𝑿=𝒓 =𝒑 𝒓 = , 𝒓 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, … , 𝒏, 𝝀 > 𝟎
𝒓!
Note- For Poisson distribution:
𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧 = 𝐕𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 = 𝝀 = 𝒏𝒑
Polling Quiz
Which of the following is not true for Poisson distribution?
(A) Each trial results in two disjoint outcomes, a success and a failure.
(B) The number of trials n is very large that is n→∞.
(C) It is a discrete distribution.
(D) The probability of success p for each trial is very large that is p→∞.
Problem 1. The number of emergency admissions each day to a hospital is found
to have Poisson distribution with mean 4. Find the probability that on a particular
day there will be no emergency admissions.
Solution. We have mean, 𝜆 = 4
Probability of 𝑟 emergency admissions is given by:
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑟
𝑃 𝑋=𝑟 =𝑝 𝑟 =
𝑟!
𝑒 −4 (4)0
⟹𝑃 𝑋=0 =𝑝 0 = = 𝑒 −4
0!
Problem 2. In a book of 600 pages, there are 60 typographical errors. Assuming
Poisson distribution for the number of errors per page, find the probability that a
randomly selected 4 pages will contain no errors.
60 1
Solution. Average number of errors per page, 𝜆 = = = 0.1
600 10
Probability of 𝑟 typographical errors per page is given by:
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆𝑟
𝑃 𝑋=𝑟 =𝑝 𝑟 =
𝑟!
𝑒 −0.1 (0.1)0
⟹𝑃 𝑋=0 =𝑝 0 = = 𝑒 −0.1
0!
Prob. that a random sample of 4 pages have no errors= 𝑃 𝑋 = 0 4
= 𝑒 −0.4
Problem 3. A Poisson variate satisfies 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 = 0.5𝑃(𝑋 = 2). Find 𝑃 𝑋 = 4 .
Solution. 𝑃 𝑋 = 1 = 0.5𝑃(𝑋 = 2)
𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆1 𝑒 −𝜆 𝜆2
⟹ = 0.5
1! 2!
⟹𝜆=4
𝑒 −4 𝜆4
Now, 𝑃 𝑋=4 =
4!
𝑒 −4 (4)4 𝑒 −4 32 −4
= = 256 = 𝑒
24 24 3
Polling Quiz
In a book of 800 pages, there are 300 typographical errors. Assuming
Poisson distribution for the number of errors per page, find the
probability that a randomly selected 4 pages will contain no errors.
(A) 𝑒 −3/8
(B) 𝑒 3/8
(C) 𝑒 −1.5
(D) 𝑒 1.5
Polling Quiz
If X is a Poisson variate such that:
𝑃 𝑋 = 2 = 3𝑃(𝑋 = 4) + 45𝑃(𝑋 = 6), the Mean and Variance of X is:
(A) 3
(B) 2
(C) 5
(D) 7